Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios Yardeni Research, Inc. October 8, 2014

Stock Market Indicators:
Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 8, 2014
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
[email protected]
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
[email protected]
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at
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thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
S&P 500
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
AAII Sentiment
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
October 8, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
1
2
3
4
5
6
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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S&P 500
Figure 1.
5
5
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
Bull/Bear Ratio
4
4
Ratio
3.15
3.23
Sep 30
Oct 7
10/7
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
80
80
Sep 23
Sep 30
Oct 7
Bulls
70
Bulls
48.0
47.5
45.5
Bears
Bears
15.3
15.1
14.1
70
60
60
50
50
10/7
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
45
40
45
10/7
40
Correction Camp
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
yardeni.com
5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93
Source: Investors Intelligence.
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Page 1 / October 8, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
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07
08
09
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11
12
13
14
15
5
16
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Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Figure 2.
2200
2200
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF
3.0 OR MORE*
2000
2000
10/7
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
yardeni.com
1800
1200
1000
1200
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 3.
19000
19000
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF
3.0 OR MORE
17000
17000
10/7
15000
15000
13000
13000
yardeni.com
11000
9000
11000
9000
7000
7000
5000
5000
3000
3000
1000
1000
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 2 / October 8, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Figure 4.
2200
2200
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO
OF 1.0 OR LESS*
2000
2000
10/7
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
yardeni.com
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
200
16
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 5.
19000
19000
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO
OF 1.0 OR LESS
17000
17000
10/7
15000
15000
13000
13000
11000
11000
9000
9000
7000
7000
5000
5000
3000
3000
yardeni.com
1000
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1000
16
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 3 / October 8, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
Figure 6.
40
40
S&P 500 INDEX
LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE
20
20
yardeni.com
10/7
0
-20
0
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average
Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
-40
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 7.
40
40
S&P 500 INDEX
LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS
20
20
yardeni.com
10/7
0
-20
0
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average
Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
-40
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 4 / October 8, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
AAII Sentiment
Figure 8.
100
100
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio*
75
75
10/1
50
50
25
25
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5
5
4
4
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
3
3
2
2
10/1
1
1
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
80
Bulls
70
70
Bears
60
60
50
50
40
40
10/1
30
30
20
10
20
Sep 24
Oct 1
Latest Readings
Bulls
Bears
41.8
28.2
35.4
30.9
10
yardeni.com
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.
Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
Page 5 / October 8, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
Figure 9.
4.5
140
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
4.0
120
3.5
10/7
3.0
100
2.5
80
2.0
1.5
60
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
40
Consumer Confidence
Expectations Index
.5
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
2015
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 10.
4.5
70
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
4.0
60
3.5
10/7
3.0
50
2.5
2.0
40
1.5
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
30
Consumer Comfort Index
.5
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
2015
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.
Page 6 / October 8, 2014 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
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