Germany`s DAX - Dr. Ed Yardeni`s Economics Network

Global Index Briefing:
Germany’s DAX
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 2, 2015
Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Germany’s DAX
Stock Price Index
Earnings
Revenues & Margins
Earnings Growth & Valuation
March 2, 2015 / Global Index Briefing: Germany’s DAX
1
2
3
4
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Stock Price Index
Figure 1.
12000
DAX INDEX*
2/27
12000
10000
10000
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000
4000
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2000
2000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
200-day moving average.
* Ratio scale.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
Figure 2.
12000
12000
DAX INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
x14
DAX Index
02/27/15
10000
10000
Blue Angels Implied Price Index*
02/19/15
8000
8000
x10
6000
6000
x6
4000
4000
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2000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2000
2016
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 1 / March 2, 2015 / Global Index Briefing: Germany’s DAX
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Earnings
Figure 3.
925
825
925
DAX INDEX OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
13
725
825
12/25
14
725
12
625
625
525
525
425
425
Consensus Forecasts
325
325
Annual estimates
Forward earnings*
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225
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
225
2014
Monthly
through
December
weekly
thereafter.
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly
through
December
2005,2005,
weekly
thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 4.
20
20
DAX INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
NERI
Dec -8.7
Jan -7.0
Feb -3.0
-40
-30
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-40
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage
of the total number of estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 2 / March 2, 2015 / Global Index Briefing: Germany’s DAX
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Revenues & Margins
Figure 5.
15000
14000
15000
DAX INDEX REVENUES PER SHARE
(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
14
13000
14000
1/23
13000
13
12000
12000
12
11000
11000
10000
10000
Consensus Forecasts
Annual estimates
9000
9000
Forward revenues*
8000
8000
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7000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
7000
2015
Monthly
through
December
weekly
thereafter.
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly
through
December
2005,2005,
weekly
thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 6.
8
8
DAX PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN
(using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)
Consensus Forecasts
__________________
7
7
Annual estimates
Forward profit margin* (5.4)
13
12
6
6
14
1/8
5
5
4
4
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3
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3
2016
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 3 / March 2, 2015 / Global Index Briefing: Germany’s DAX
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Earnings Growth & Valuation
Figure 7.
80
80
DAX LTEG VS STEG
(percent)
70
70
60
60
50
50
LTEG* (7.9)
40
40
STEG* (8.9)
30
30
20
20
10
10
12/25
0
0
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-10
-10
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* STEG: 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected growth. LTEG: 5-year consensus expected growth. Monthly data through 2005,
weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 8.
35
35
DAX VALUATION
30
30
Forward P/E* (13.8)
25
25
20
20
15
10
15
12/25
10
5
3.0
5
3.0
Relative P/E** (0.9)
2.5
2.5
PEG Ratio*** (1.8)
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
12/25
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.5
.5
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to MSCI World forward P/E.
*** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 4 / March 2, 2015 / Global Index Briefing: Germany’s DAX
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