Heightened uncertainty as risk escalates

15 October 2014
Risk
The key risk to our downgrade is our reading on the global macro risk and
thus sector earnings prospects.
Absolute Performance (%)
Inari
1M
-23.9
3M
-23.6
12M
+103.9
MPI
-16.4
-18.2
+70.2
Globe
-18.8
-6.5
+34.0
Unisem
-19.6
-20.6
+51.7
-5.6
-5.6
+5.6
+14.0
+59.8
+222.6
Uchi
Scicom
Relative Performance (%)
Globetronics
MPI
Globetronics
Inari
MPI
Scicom
Uchi
Unisem
Average
Rating
ADD
BUY
ADD
BUY
ADD
ADD
Sh Pr
(RM)
4.02
2.49
4.85
1.71
1.34
1.35
TP
(RM)
4.53
3.80
5.20
2.56
1.57
1.51
Mkt Cap Year
(RMm)
end
1,130 Dec
1,278 Jun
1,018 Jun
507 Jun
507 Dec
910 Dec
5,349
Unisem
Inari
Scicom
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
Key rating changes
Previous
Current
Inari
BUY
BUY
MPI
BUY
ADD
Globe
ADD
ADD
Uchi
ADD
ADD
Unisem
BUY
ADD
Scicom
BUY
BUY
Kevin Low
(603) 2145 2235
[email protected]
Peer Comparison
Stock
Uchi
325
310
295
280
265
250
235
220
205
190
175
160
145
130
115
100
85
70
Apr-14
Downgrade to NEUTRAL
In our view, the semiconductor industry datapoints are looking stretched
while the reining-in of quantitative easing by the US Fed suggests
increased risk aversion ahead. Given also the heightened global macro
risk, we think that there is a risk of increased earnings volatility for the
sector. We thus downgrade the sector to Neutral from Overweight. Inari is
still our preferred sector pick as it is a leading contractor for Avago, a
market leader in the global RF space. Inari’s earnings are also likely to be
among the most resilient given the strong growth in the smartphone/tablet
space and it is the most profitable listed semiconductor player locally.
Neutral (downgrade)
May-14
What has changed?
Apart from the slew of disappointing global macro datapoints that sparked
concerns over a global economic slowdown - weak demand in China,
disappointing export figures in Germany and the IMF downgrading its 2015
global growth forecast - the sector itself saw some negative headwinds.
US tech companies Microchip and Juniper Networks both sounded the
alarm bells by cautioning of bleaker prospects ahead. The former even
warned that a correction in the semiconductor industry was already
underway, which led to a sharp correction on the Nasdaq market over the
past week (-4%) and also negative sentiment on the semiconductor sector.
Technology
Mar-14
Local semiconductor stocks take a beating
The technology sector, which has been a darling over the past 2 years
(Bursa Technology index +11% Ytd; +39% since Jan 2013) has come
under selling pressure recently. What had started off as profit-taking on
stocks with lofty valuations, extended to those which had seen hefty gains
Ytd. Technology stocks under our coverage have thus retraced by up to
18% over the past week (23% over a 2-week period), in tandem with the
sharp sell-off, particularly in the small-mid cap space.
Sector Update
Jan-14
The sharp selloff in the semiconductor sector has taken many off
guard. But with increased earnings uncertainty and industry
datapoints at their peak, the concerns may be warranted.
Nevertheless, there needs to be a clear distinction between
fundamentally sound companies, especially those with a strong track
record and franchise, and the rest. Inari falls into the first category
and we think that the selling is overdone, and presents a good
buying opportunity.
Dec-13
Heightened uncertainty as risk escalates
Core PE (x)
EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA
CY14 CY15
CY14
CY15
(x)
17.2
14.2
32.8
21.2
8.3
13.8
10.6
64.2
30.1
8.3
13.4
13.1
97.1
2.5
3.6
17.6
13.4
55.6
31.8
12.5
11.0
10.2
15.7
7.3
8.2
20.5
23.7
357.4
-13.4
6.2
14.2
12.3
88.8
15.2
7.9
P/B
(x)
3.9
7.1
1.4
5.9
2.6
0.9
3.6
ROE (%)
Div. Yield (%)
CY14 CY15 FY14 FY15
23.3
27.2
4.9
5.7
46.8
43.3
2.7
4.8
10.4
10.1
3.1
3.1
35.9
40.4
4.1
4.2
23.7
24.9
8.2
9.0
4.7
3.8
1.5
1.3
24.1
24.9
4.1
4.7
Source: Affin Hwang estimates
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 1 of 10
15 October 2014
Local semiconductor stocks take a beating
The technology sector, which has been a darling over the past 2 years
(Bursa Technology index +11% Ytd; +39% since Jan 2013) has come
under selling pressure recently. What had started off as profit-taking on
stocks with lofty valuations, extended to those which had seen hefty gains
Ytd. Technology stocks under our coverage have thus retraced by up to
18% over the past week (23% over a 2-week period), in tandem with the
sharp sell-off, particularly in the small-mid cap space..
Fig 1: Semiconductor stock price performance over the past 7-14 days
Company (RM)
Inari
MPI
Globe
Unisem
30-Sep
3.23
5.66
4.68
1.63
7-Oct
3.04
5.63
4.32
1.60
14-Oct 1 wk change 2 wk change
2.49
-18%
-23%
4.85
-14%
-14%
4.02
-7%
-14%
1.35
-16%
-17%
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
What has changed?
Apart from the slew of disappointing global macro datapoints that sparked
concerns over a global economic slowdown - weak demand in China,
disappointing export figures in Germany and the IMF downgrading its 2015
global growth forecast - the sector itself saw some negative headwinds.
US tech companies Microchip and Juniper Networks both sounded the
alarm bells by cautioning of bleaker prospects ahead. The former even
warned that a correction in the semiconductor industry was already
underway, which led to a sharp correction on the Nasdaq market over the
past week (-4%) and also negative sentiment on the sector.
Fundamentally still sound, for now
Our channel checks with the semiconductor companies under our
coverage indicate no immediate cause for concern. For the quarter ended
30 Sept 2014, we understand that demand has remained solid, and will
most likely contribute to another rock steady quarterly performance.
Preliminary guidance for the final quarter of 2014 also looks healthy,
prompting us to believe that the recent tech stock sell-off is related to
increased risk aversion and concerns over 2015 global economic
prospects, which is unfortunately difficult to forecast with certainty.
Determining whether concerns are warranted
Nevertheless, validation of Microchip’s negative statement, i.e. whether the
industry is already in a correction phase, is thus necessary to determine if
sector concerns are warranted. Once again, the best way to look into this
is the tracking of the up and down periods of the semiconductor cycle.
Based on latest available data from the Semiconductor Industry
th
Association, the July 2014 data highlights the 15 consecutive month of
positive yoy growth. While still positive, this is looking stretched compared
to the previous upcycles (Fig 2). Coupled with the potential weakness in
capex spending by corporations in the event of a global economic
slowdown, there is potential for increased earnings uncertainty ahead and
hence reasons to be cautious on the semiconductor sector.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 2 of 10
15 October 2014
Fig 2: Recent semiconductor cycle has been on 15-mth uptrend
Source: SIA
The book to bill ratio (Fig 3) on the other hand does not provide much
conclusive evidence.
Fig 3: Book to bill ratio still in positive territory
Source: SEMI
Reducing valuation premium on increased risk to earnings
In view of the heightened macro risk and adverse change in sentiment, we
reckon that investors may no longer find it appealing to accord premium
PE multiples (which have recently run into the high teens) for growth which
has now turned uncertain. We thus lower our target PE multiples from as
high as 18x (for Globetronics and Inari) to 16x, in line with the fair PE
multiple accorded to the overall market. We think this is still justifiable
considering their better growth prospects and dividend yields.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 3 of 10
15 October 2014
Stick to well-run companies and those sound business models
While the sentiment may have turned more cautious across the technology
sector, we think it is unfair to uniformly label all companies as the same.
Recall that over the past decade, selected semiconductor companies
under our coverage have performed well despite downturns, and have
remained profitable (eg. Globetronics) because of their strict cost discipline
and forward-looking management team. We also like those which have
sound business models and that are highly leveraged to the
smartphone/tablet industry (eg. Inari).
Inari’s and Globe’s earnings likely to be more resilient
In our view, earnings for both of these companies are likely to be more
resilient compared to their peers given that they are the key contractor for
their major customers and we do not foresee a significant slowdown in the
end markets that they service – timing devices, sensors and radio
frequency.
But unlikely the case for MPI and Unisem
However, we cut our earnings forecasts for MPI and Unisem, which we
believe are more susceptible to global macro conditions, given their wider
customer base and the end markets that they service. Our MPI forecasts
for FY15-17 are cut by 12%/35%/37% while Unisem’s FY15-16 forecasts
are cut by 36% and 41% respectively.
Fig 4: Semiconductor company earnings changes
Current forecast (RMm)
Inari
MPI
Globe
Unisem
2014E/15E 2015E/16E 2016E/17E
137.3
166.5
192.1
86.2
69.6
69.3
65.3
79.1
92.8
44.3
38.3
35.8
Previous forecast (RMm)
Inari
MPI
Globe
Unisem
2014E/15E 2015E/16E 2016E/17E
137.3
166.5
192.1
97.7
107.2
110.7
65.2
79.1
92.8
44.3
59.5
61.2
Revisions (%)
Inari
MPI
Globe
Unisem
2014E/15E 2015E/16E 2016E/17E
0
0
0
-11.8
-35.1
-37.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0
-35.6
-41.4
Source: Affin Hwang
Target prices lowered across the board
We lower our target P/BV multiple for Unisem to 1x from 1.3x to reflect mid
cycle valuations, resulting in a lowered target price of RM1.51 from
RM2.01 previously. We retain our target PE multiple of 14x for MPI, but
now have a lower target price of RM5.20 (from RM6.84 previously) after
the earnings downgrade. Our target price for Globe is lowered to RM4.53
(from RM5.10) while Inari’s target price is lowered to RM3.80 from RM4.28.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 4 of 10
15 October 2014
Fig 5: Target price revisions and basis
Current TP
Previous
(RM)
TP (RM)
Inari
3.80
4.28
MPI
5.20
6.84
Globe
4.53
5.10
Unisem
2.01
1.51
Remarks
Based on lower PE multiple of 16x from
18x
Due to earnings downgrade
Based on lower PE multiple of 16x from
18x
Due to earnings downgrade, lower P/BV
multiple
Source: Affin Hwang
Downgrade to NEUTRAL, MPI and Unisem downgraded to Add
In our view, semiconductor industry datapoints are looking stretched while
the reining-in of quantitative easing by the US Fed suggests increased risk
aversion ahead. Given also the heightened global macro risk, we think that
there is risk of increased earnings volatility for the sector. We thus
downgrade the sector to Neutral from Overweight. We also downgrade
MPI and Unisem from Buy to Add, given the lower upside potential to their
respective target prices.
Inari still our preferred pick for semiconductor exposure
Although Inari has been the worst affected among the semiconductor
companies in this sell-off, Inari remains our preferred pick for exposure to
the sector. We like Inari as it is a leading contractor for Avago, a market
leader in the global RF space. Given that its earnings are likely to be
among the most resilient due to the strong growth in the smartphone/tablet
space and that it is the most profitable listed semiconductor player locally,
we think the selling on Inari is overdone.
Risks
The key risk to our downgrade is our reading on the global macro risk and
thus sector earnings prospects.
Fig 6: Globe’s PE
(x)
Fig 7: Inari’s PE
PE
Avg PE
+1SD
-1SD
20
18
16
14
12
+1 SD
10
8
6
-1 SD
4
2
0
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 5 of 10
15 October 2014
Fig 8: Inari’s P/BV
Fig 8: Globe’s P/BV
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Fig 10: Uchi’s PE
Fig 11: Uchi’s PBV
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Fig 12: MPI’s PBV
Fig 13: Unisem’s PBV
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 6 of 10
15 October 2014
Fig 14: Scicom’s PE
Fig 15:Scicom’s PBV
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Source: Affin Hwang, Company data
Earnings and valuation summary:
Inari (BUY; TP: RM3.80)
Source: Bloomberg
Earnings & Valuation Summary
FYE June (RMm)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Revenue
EBITDA
Pretax profit
Net profit
EPS (sen)
PER (x)
Core net profit
Core EPS (sen)
Core EPS chg (%)
Core PER (x)
Core FD EPS
Core FD PER (x)
DPS (sen)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Consensus profit
Affin/Consensus (x)
793.7
129.3
107.2
101.3
22.2
11.3
96.1
21.1
108.6
11.9
14.9
16.8
6.8
2.7
8.7
-
918.7
176.4
150.8
137.3
30.1
8.3
137.3
30.1
42.9
8.3
21.3
11.8
12.0
4.8
6.3
137.0
1.0
1,071.9
212.2
186.9
166.5
36.5
6.8
166.5
36.5
21.2
6.8
25.8
9.7
14.6
5.8
4.9
160.8
1.0
1,182.6
241.3
214.5
192.1
42.1
5.9
192.1
42.1
15.4
5.9
29.7
8.4
16.8
6.7
4.0
192.0
1.0
Earnings & Valuation Summary
FYE Dec (RMm)
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenue
EBITDA
Pretax profit
Net profit
EPS (sen)
EPS growth (%)
PER (x)
Core net profit
Core EPS (sen)
Core PER (x)
DPS (sen)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Consensus profit
Affin/Consensus (x)
321.4
94.6
62.5
52.6
18.8
21.7
49.1
17.6
29.5
23.2
18.0
4.4
10.5
-
359.9
114.8
78.9
66.3
23.7
17.2
65.3
23.4
33.0
17.4
19.9
4.9
8.5
64.9
1.0
450.4
130.6
94.2
79.1
28.3
14.4
79.1
28.3
21.1
14.4
24.1
5.9
7.5
76.8
1.0
500.4
146.4
110.5
92.8
33.2
12.3
92.8
33.2
17.3
12.3
28.3
6.9
6.6
89.4
1.0
241.1
62.7
43.3
42.0
9.2
27.1
46.1
10.1
146.2
24.7
7.1
35.1
4.5
1.8
18.0
-
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
Globe (ADD; TP: RM4.53)
Source: Bloomberg
290.0
90.5
48.3
41.3
15.2
26.9
37.0
13.6
42.7
30.1
11.0
2.7
11.1
-
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 7 of 10
15 October 2014
MPI (ADD; TP: RM5.20)
Earnings & Valuation Summary
FYE June (RMm)
2013
Revenue
EBITDA
Pretax profit
Net profit
EPS (sen)
EPS growth (%)
PER (x)
Core net profit
Core EPS (sen)
Core PER (x)
DPS (sen)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Consensus profit
Affin/Consensus (x)
1,226.3
220.7
21.1
10.9
5.2
93.0
11.3
5.4
(170.5)
90.5
10.4
2.1
5.3
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
Unisem (ADD; TP: RM1.51)
Earnings & Valuation Summary
FYE Dec (RMm)
2010
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
1,291.8
272.4
64.8
45.1
21.5
22.5
65.9
31.4
485.7
15.4
15.0
3.1
3.8
1,398.8
303.4
121.4
86.2
41.1
11.8
86.2
41.1
30.8
11.8
15.0
3.1
2.9
82.7
1.0
1,308.3
270.0
98.1
69.6
33.2
14.6
69.6
33.2
(19.2)
14.6
20.0
4.1
2.8
97.5
0.7
1,295.5
236.6
97.5
69.3
33.0
14.7
69.3
33.0
(0.6)
14.7
20.0
4.1
2.8
109.7
0.6
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
1091.9
145.5
-35.4
-32.3
-4.8
-28.2
-9.1
-1.3
-175.6
-100.4
2.0
1.5
9.2
-
990.6
72.0
-94.8
-105.4
-15.6
-8.6
-17.2
-2.6
89.8
-52.9
2.0
1.5
17.2
-
1020.4
198.3
51.2
45.9
6.8
19.8
44.3
6.6
-357.4
20.5
2.0
1.5
5.6
41.3
1.1
1010.1
194.5
41.1
38.3
5.7
23.7
38.3
5.7
-13.4
23.7
1.7
1.3
5.1
68.9
0.6
1006.0
187.9
38.4
35.8
5.3
25.4
35.8
5.3
-6.5
25.4
1.6
1.2
4.6
91.6
0.4
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
Uchi (ADD; TP: RM1.57)
Earnings & Valuation Summary
FYE Dec (RMm)
2012
Revenue
EBITDA
Pretax profit
Net profit
EPS (sen)
EPS growth (%)
PER (x)
Core net profit
Core EPS (sen)
Core PER (x)
DPS (sen)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Consensus profit
Affin/Consensus (x)
Revenue
EBITDA
Pretax profit
Net profit
EPS (sen)
EPS growth (%)
PER (x)
Core net profit
Core EPS (sen)
Core PER (x)
DPS (sen)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Consensus profit
Affin/Consensus (x)
Source: Bloomberg
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
92.3
44.0
46.3
44.8
11.9
11.3
43.0
11.4
(8.4)
11.7
12.0
9.0
94.0
44.9
41.8
39.1
10.4
12.9
39.6
10.5
(7.9)
12.7
10.0
7.5
102.3
45.0
43.4
42.8
11.4
11.8
42.8
11.4
8.0
11.8
11.0
8.2
111.1
52.2
49.8
49.1
13.0
10.3
49.1
13.0
14.8
10.3
12.0
9.0
118.0
55.5
52.7
51.9
13.8
9.7
51.9
13.8
5.8
9.7
13.0
9.7
8.4
-
8.7
-
9.2
43.2
1.0
7.8
46.7
1.1
7.3
50.1
1.0
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 8 of 10
15 October 2014
Scicom (BUY; TP: RM2.56)
Source: Bloomberg
Earnings & Valuation Summary
FYE June (RMm)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Revenue
EBITDA
Pretax Profit
Net Profit
EPS (sen)
PE (x)
Core net profit
Core EPS (sen)
EPS growth (%)
Core PE (x)
Net DPS (sen)
Net Div Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Consensus profit
Affin/Consensus (x)
160.1
26.7
22.3
23.2
7.8
21.8
22.2
7.5
49.2
22.9
7.0
4.1
17.9
-
188.9
40.4
35.3
35.4
12.0
14.3
35.4
12.0
59.8
14.3
7.2
4.2
11.6
-
208.5
45.0
40.4
40.5
13.7
12.5
40.5
13.7
14.2
12.5
8.2
4.8
10.1
-
225.5
50.5
46.2
46.3
15.6
10.9
46.3
15.6
14.4
10.9
9.4
5.5
8.7
-
133.8
19.7
14.7
14.9
5.0
34.1
14.9
5.0
8.1
34.1
3.0
1.8
25.0
-
Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
Page 9 of 10
15 October 2014
Equity Rating Structure and Definitions
BUY
Total return is expected to exceed +15% over a 12-month period
TRADING BUY (TR Total return is expected to exceed +15% over a 3-month period due to short-term positive development, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant a
BUY)
Buy call. This is to cater to investors who are willing to take on higher risks
ADD
Total return is expected to be between 0% to +15% over a 12-month period
REDUCE
Total return is expected to be between 0% to -15% over a 12-month period
TRADING SELL
(TR SELL)
Total return is expected to exceed -15% over a 3-month period due to short-term negative development, but fundamentals are strong enough to avoid a Sell
call. This is to cater to investors who are willing to take on higher risks
SELL
Total return is expected to be below -15% over a 12-month period
NOT RATED
Affin Investment Bank does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation
OVERWEIGHT
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT
Industry, as defined by the analyst’s coverage universe is expected to under-perform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months
This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389-U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank
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Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (14389-U)
(Formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd)
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