C O M M O D I T Y

Shriram Market Analysis
& Research Team
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
17 October 2014
ECONOMIC/GLOBAL NEWS

U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 264,000 in the week ended October
11th. The Labor Department said the four-week moving average also
fell to 283,500. Continuing claims rose to 2.389 million in the week
ended October 4th.

U.S. industrial production surged up by 1.0 percent in September after
edging down by a revised 0.2 percent in August while manufacturing
output rebounded by 0.5 percent following a 0.5 percent drop in the
previous month.

U.S. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 54 in
October after jumping to a nearly nine-year high of 59 in September.

Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current activity edged down to 20.7
in October from 22.5 in September. The number of employees index
also tumbled to 12.1 in October. On the other hand, the report showed
that new orders index climbed to 17.3 in October. The report said the
future general activity index fell to 54.5 in October.

Eurozone trade surplus rose to a seasonally adjusted EUR 15.8 billion
in August from EUR 12.7 billion in July. Exports were down 0.9%
following a 0.1% drop in July. Imports declined 3.1% reversing July's
0.6% increase. On an unadjusted basis, the trade surplus fell sharply
to EUR 9.2 billion from EUR 21.6 billion in July. Exports dropped 3%
annually and imports were down by 4%.


Eurozone inflation fell to 0.3%, from 0.4% in August. This was the
lowest since October 2009. Monthly inflation was 0.4% in September.
Core inflation slowed to a revised 0.8% from 0.9% a month ago.
Monthly core rate was 0.5%.
Index
Dow
Nifty
Sensex
USD/INR
Dollar Index
Euro/$1US
$1US/Yen
Pound/$1US
.........Investing
15-Oct-14
Pts. Ch.
% Change
16117.24
7748.20
25999.34
61.840
85.04
1.2810
106.33
1.6088
16141.74
CLOSED
CLOSED
61.380
85.24
1.2837
105.92
1.6021
-24.50
0.46
-0.20
-0.0027
0.41
0.0067
-0.15
0.75
-0.23
-0.21
0.39
0.42
Market Update

An attempted rebound by the U.S. stock market Thursday
fizzled out by the end of the session, as the main benchmarks
wrapped up another rocky trading day essentially flat. The S&P
500 closed flat at 1,862.76, with energy sector leading the
gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 24.5 points,
or 0.2%, to 16,116.24. The Nasdaq Composite ticked up 2
points to 4,217.39.

Indian market ended near 2-month closing lows, amid weak
European cues, with Metal shares declining the most on
worries that global economic growth slowdown would hurt
demand.
Currency Update

The dollar recovered against the yen and euro, but remained
lower against most other rivals in relatively muted afternoon for
currency traders on Thursday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index traded
at 84.9530 Thursday, compared to 85.1470 late Wednesday.
Trade in the euro rising from $1.2770 to as high as $1.2835,
before falling back to trade at $1.2804 Thursday afternoon,
compared to $1.2816 late Wednesday. The pound trading at
$1.6091, from $1.5989 late Wednesday.

The rupee posted its biggest single-day loss in a month, hurt by
data showing a widening trade deficit and a slump in local
shares as part of a global market sell-off, but intervention from
the central bank prevented steeper losses. The partially
convertible rupee INR=D2 closed at 61.8350/8450 per dollar
compared with 61.41/42 on Tuesday, after touching 61.93 in
intra-day trade. The fall was the biggest since Sept. 15. In the
offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was
at 62.22/32 while the three-month was at 62.84/94.
India's trade deficit widened to $14.25 billion in September. Exports
rose 2.7% y-o-y in September vs. 2.4% in August, but was outpaced by
imports (26% y-o-y vs. 2.1% in August) leading to a sharp deterioration
in the trade balance (USD -14.5bn vs USD -10.8bn in August).
Smart
16-Oct-14
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
17 October 2014
PRECIOUS METALS

A rising wave in Gold continues to help the metal on a significant basis
and weakness in Indian Rupee offered a good support. The metal for
December expiry settled at Rs 27449 per 10 grams, up Rs. 197.
December Silver closed at Rs. 38872 per 1 kg, up Rs. 105.

Gold futures snapped a three-session winning streak as safe-haven
demand eased on the back of a recovery in the U.S. stock market. Gold
for December delivery fell $3.60, or 0.29%, to settle $1,241.20 an
ounce. December silver lost 3 cents to $17.437 an ounce.
Open Interest
Closing
Bullion
Gold December MCX
Gold December Comex
Silver December MCX
Silver December Comex
Open
27270
1242
38912
17.450
Bullion
( Technical )
Gold December MCX
Gold December Comex
Silver December MCX
Silver December Comex
High
27610
1246
39180
17.540
Low
27270
1235
38610
17.200
16-Oct-14
27449
1241
38872
17.437
15-Oct-14
CLOSED
1245
CLOSED
17.464
% Ch
-0.29
-0.15
16-Oct-14
7823
290954
16355
118697
% Ch
1.77
-0.30
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
27449
1241
38872
17.437
26936
1225
38025
16.905
27103
1230
38317
17.052
27276
1236
38595
17.245
27443
1241
38887
17.392
27616
1246
39165
17.585
27783
1251
39457
17.732
27956
1257
39735
17.925
Holdings In Tonnes As On
Name of the ETF
15-Oct-14
CLOSED
285881
CLOSED
119056
16-Oct-2014
15-Oct-2014
%Ch
16-Oct-2014
Ratio
Close
Ratio
Close
SPDR Gold ETF
760.93
759.14
0.24
Gold v/s Silver
1241.20
17.437
71.18
iShares Silver Trust
10717.20
10717.20
0.00
Gold v/s Crude Oil
1241.20
82.70
15.01
OUTLOOK OF PRECIOUS METALS
Likely to remain range-bound. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
17 October 2014
BASE METALS

A sharp selloff was noticed in the prices of MCX Copper after the news
from ICSG indicating surplus in 2015. The November prices declined
the sharply and ended the session at Rs 409 per kg, down 2.98%. MCX
Zinc October expiry closed at Rs. 138.80 per kg, down 4.37%.

ICSG projections for 2014 indicate that world apparent refined copper
demand is expected to exceed refined copper production by about
300,000 metric tonnes (t). According to ICSG projections for 2015,
after five consecutive years of apparent deficits, the copper market
could show a production surplus relative to demand. World production
of refined copper is expected to exceed demand for refined copper by
about 390,000 t, as demand will lag behind the growth in production.

The latest report from United States Geological Survey has been
released. The report mentions that the global Zinc stocks declined by
390175 tonnes in the month of July 2014 compared to July 2013. The
total stocks were 655275 tonnes in the month of July 2014, compared
to 1045400 tonnes in July 2013.
LME Inventories (In Tonnes)
Base Metals
Aluminum
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Zinc
16-Oct-14
15-Oct-14
4526050
157675
374562
225550
724775
4535475
154650
374934
225525
726400
Base Metals
( Closing )
21-Mar-12
LME Aluminium ( Spot )
LME Aluminum (3 Month Forward )
MCX Aluminium ( October )
LME Copper ( Spot )
LME Copper ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Copper ( November )
LME Nickel ( Spot )
LME Nickel ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Nickel ( October )
LME Lead ( Spot )
LME Lead ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Lead ( October )
LME Zinc ( Spot )
LME Zinc ( 3 Month Forward )
MCX Zinc ( October )
Base Metals
( Technical )
Aluminium ( October )
Copper ( November )
Nickel ( October )
Lead ( October )
Zinc ( October )
Change
% Change
-9425
3025
-372
25
-1625
-0.21
1.96
-0.10
0.01
-0.22
20-Mar-12
16-Oct-14
15-Oct-14
1872.50
1899.50
117.85
6629.00
6580.00
409.00
15310.00
15375.00
959.10
1955.50
1964.00
122.40
2204.50
2208.00
137.80
1912.00
1940.00
CLOSED
6780.50
6745.00
CLOSED
16130.00
16210.00
CLOSED
2042.00
2054.00
CLOSED
2328.00
2331.00
CLOSED
%Change
%Change
-2.07
-2.09
-2.23
-2.45
-5.08
-5.15
-4.24
-4.38
-5.30
-5.28
-
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
117.85
409.00
959.10
122.40
137.80
115.10
390.10
884.60
116.50
126.70
115.70
398.40
917.00
118.90
131.30
116.80
403.70
938.10
120.60
134.50
117.40
412.10
970.50
123.00
139.10
118.50
417.40
991.60
124.80
142.40
119.10
425.70
1024
127.20
147.00
120.20
431.00
1045
128.90
150.20
OUTLOOK OF BASE METALS
Likely to remain range-bound with positive bias. Trade tracking support and resistances.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
17 October 2014
ENERGY

MCX Crude oil futures for November closed at Rs 5092 per barrel, down
Rs 22 per barrel or 0.43%. MCX Natural Gas for October expiry closed
at Rs. 234.60 per British thermal unit, down 0.38%.

Crude-oil futures bounced from a two-year low and from a dip under $80
a barrel, scoring their highest one-day dollar gain in three weeks. On the
New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in
November rose 92 cents, or 1.12%, to settle at $82.70 a barrel.
November natural gas lost less than a penny, or 0.11%, to settle at
$3.796 per million British thermal units. That was natural gas's lowest
settlement since Sept. 5.
EIA Crude Oil Inventories Data
Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories rose 8.9
million barrels on the week ended Oct. 10. The EIA added that gasoline
inventories declined 4 million barrels on the week, and stockpiles of
distillates, which include heating oil, decreased 1.5 million barrels. The
report was out a day later than usual due to Monday's Columbus Day holiday.
EIA Natural Gas Inventories Data
U.S. supplies of natural gas rose 94 billion cubic feet for the week ended Oct.
10, the Energy Information Administration said.
Open Interest
Closing
ENERGY
Crude Oil November MCX
Crude November Nymex
Natural Gas October MCX
Natural Gas November Henry Hub
ENERGY
( Technical )
Crude Oil November MCX
Crude November Nymex
Natural Gas October MCX
Natural Gas November Henry Hub
Open
5093
81.06
235.00
3.811
High
5206
84.83
238.20
3.834
Low
4935
79.78
232.30
3.744
16-Oct-14
5092
82.70
234.60
3.796
15-Oct-14
CLOSED
81.78
CLOSED
3.800
% Ch
1.12
-0.11
16-Oct-14
9096
108018
6592
96902
15-Oct-14
CLOSED
121429
CLOSED
111784
% Ch
-11.04
-13.31
Close Price
Sup-3
Sup-2
Sup-1
Pivot Point
Res -1
Res -2
Res -3
5092
82.70
234.60
3.796
4678
74.99
226.00
3.659
4807
77.39
229.10
3.701
4949
80.04
231.90
3.749
5078
82.44
235.00
3.791
5220
85.09
237.80
3.839
5349
87.49
240.90
3.881
5491
90.14
243.70
3.929
OUTLOOK OF ENERGY
Likely to remain range-bound with positive bias. Trade tracking support and resistance.
Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]
C O M M O D I T YREPORT
17 October 2014
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Time
5:00:00 PM
5:00:00 PM
5:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
7:25:00 PM
7:25:00 PM
7:25:00 PM
7:25:00 PM
Country
India
India
India
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
Friday October 17, 2014
Event
Bank Loan Growth
Deposit Growth
FX Reserves, USD
Building Permits (MoM) (Sep)
Building Permits (Sep)
Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep)
Housing Starts (Sep)
Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)
Michigan Current Conditions (Oct)
Michigan Inflation Expectations (Oct)
Actual
Forecast Previous
9.70%
13.40%
311.43B
2.8%
-5.1%
1.029M 1.003M
4.8% -14.4%
1.010M 0.956M
74.4
75.4
84.1
84.6
98.0
98.9
3.0%
D I S C L A I M E R
This document has been prepared by ICFL (100% Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be
reported or copied or made available to others. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy and sell any
Commodity or as an official confirmation of any transaction. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This document is prepared for assistance only and is
not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. ICFL (100%
Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) Recommendation Service is a general recommendation service and is not to be construed as an individual investor specific Portfolio
Management and Advisory Service.
The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the Commodities to in this document and
should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
ICFL (100% Subsidiary Company of Shriram Insight Share Brokers Ltd) shall not be responsible for any loss or liability incurred to the user as a consequence of his or any other person on his behalf taking
any investment decisions based on the information, recommendations, research reports, analysis, quotes, etc. provided on the web site.
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Smart
.........Investing
Enquiry : +91 33 2359 4612, +91 33 2359 4614, +91 33 2358 1953, E-mail : [email protected]