Dec 26, 2014 : Angel Commodities

Commodities Evening Update
Friday, December 26, 2014
International Commodities
Content
Day’s overview
Market Highlights
Outlook
Important Events for Today
Prathamesh Mallya
Sr. Research Analyst
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134
Kaynat Chainwala
Research Associate
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
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correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in
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Commodities Evening Update
Friday, December 26, 2014
International Commodities
News and Analysis
Index
Europe, UK markets closed today on Boxing Day eve.
SPDR gold holdings currently near 6-year lows.
U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose by 7.3 mn bbl last week.
European markets are closed today on the eve of Boxing Day
holiday. Asian markets ended higher and the US stock futures
are trading in the green.
Indian Rupee is trading lower at 63.62 owing to FII profit booking
and month end dollar demand. Also, fresh demand for the
American currency from banks and importers due to heavy
foreign capital outflows acted as a negative factor.
Spot gold prices are trading higher by more than 1 percent at
1186.61/oz. Although the dollar slipped against a basket of
major currencies, the metal is headed for a second straight
weekly drop, underscoring the bearishness in the market.
Liquidity was thin as key markets in the region such as Australia,
Hong Kong and Singapore were closed on Friday. The U.K.
market will remain closed, although New York will be open. On
the MCX, gold prices are trading higher by 1 percent and trading
at Rs.26848/10gms.
as at 4.00 pm -26th Dec’14
Performance during the day
Nifty
Open
High
Low
% Chg
from Prev
day
Last
8204.80
8234.55
8147.95
8200.70
0.33
Sensex
27215.19
27370.63
27091.38
27241.78
0.12
Nikkei
17778.91
17843.73
17769.01
17818.96
0.06
Kospi
1947.60
1954.77
1944.22
1948.16
0.08
FTSE
19088.16
19352.13
19011.24
19011.24
1.46
Source: Reuters
as at 4.00 pm – 26th Dec’14
Currency
Open
High
Low
Chg from
Prev day
Current
Dollar Index
90.12
90.25
90.07
90.235
0.01
Euro/$ Spot
1.2222
1.2227
1.2185
1.2192
-0.24
INR/$ Spot
63.45
63.685
63.45
63.625
0.17
Source: Reuters
as at 4.00 pm –26th Dec’14
Commodity
Unit
Open
High
Low
Last
% Chg
from
Prev
day
Spot Gold
$/oz
1172.70
1189.30
1172.7
1188.78
1.32
Comex Gold
$/oz
1177.20
1184.60
1177.2
1184.50
0.94
Rs/10
gms
27054.00
27106.00
27030
27096.00
0.99
Spot Silver
$/oz
15.72
16.13
15.69
16.11
2.61
Spot silver prices are trading higher today by more than 2.5
percent at $16.09/oz. Weakness in the dollar index coupled with
strength in the gold prices is acting as a positive factor for prices.
On the MCX, silver prices are trading higher by 2.12 percent at
Rs.37215/kg.
Comex Silver
$/oz
0.1594
0.1594
0.1594
0.1594
1.70
MCX Silver –
Mar’15
Rs/kg
36655
37256
36655
37170
1.99
Crude Oil Nymex –
Feb ‘15
$/bbl
55.86
56.53
55.68
56.36
0.93
ICE -Brent Crude
Oil
$/bbl
60.19
60.70
59.99
60.56
0.53
LME markets are closed today on the eve of Boxing Day holiday.
MCX copper prices rose by 0.3 percent owing to Rupee
depreciation and currently trading at Rs.404.85/kg till 4:00 pm
IST.
MCX Crude Oil
Jan’15
Rs/bbl
3590
3620
3574
3612
1.75
Copper LME - 3
Month
$/tonne
6335.75
6354.50
6298.00
6312.25
-0.42
Rs/kg
404.60
406.35
404.60
405.45
0.31
$/tonne
2162.25
2177.00
2152.50
2159.75
-0.24
Rs/kg
137.35
137.80
137.35
137.40
0.07
$/tonne
1860
1870
1846
1858
-0.03
Rs/kg
118.10
118.80
118.10
118.35
0.21
$/tonne
15474
15625
15225
15293
-0.98
Rs/kg
965.90
969.40
961.30
965.20
0.43
$/tonne
1872.00
1883.00
1859.00
1866.75
-0.17
Rs/kg
117.40
117.75
117.20
117.35
0.09
MCX Gold – Feb’15
MCX Copper –
Dec’14
Zinc LME - 3
Month
Oil prices are trading higher today with Brent and WTI gaining by
0.41 and 0.65 percent respectively. On the supply side, data
suggested an increasing glut as a U.S. report showed crude
inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.3 million barrels last week to
their highest December level on record. Analysts had expected a
seasonal draw. MCX oil futures are trading higher by 2 percent at
Rs.3617/bbl.
Zinc MCX – Dec’14
Lead LME - 3
Month
Lead MCX – Dec’14
Nickel LME - 3
Month
Nickel MCX –
Dec’14
Aluminum LME - 3
Month
Aluminum MCX –
Dec’14
Commodities Evening Update
Friday, December 26, 2014
International Commodities
Outlook
Volatility will remain high as traders will maximize opportunity to cash in the thin trade today as most of the traders will be at
bay. Although the fundamentals of the commodity remain bearish, weakness in the dollar index will also act as a positive
factor for prices.
Major fundamentals in crude remain bearish with markets oversupplies from the OPEC as well as from the US. Bargain
hunting at lower levels will act as a positive factor.
In the Indian markets, base metals will trade lower today owing to persistent global tensions although sharp movement
would be restricted as major global markets remain closed today on the eve of Boxing Day holiday and Rupee depreciation.
th
Technical Outlook for evening session – 26 Dec’14 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity
Gold Feb’15
Spot Gold
Unit
Rs/10 gm
$/oz
NCDEX Gold hedge Dec’15
Silver Mar’15
Spot Silver
NCDEX Silver hedge Dec’14
Crude Oil Jan’15
Nymex Crude Oil Feb’15
Natural Gas Jan’14
LME Copper
Copper Feb’15
Zinc Dec’14
Lead Dec’14
Aluminum Dec’14
Support 1
CMP
Resistance1
Resistance 2
26540
1177
26750
1183
26885
1189.2
26980
1195
27100
1201
24200
24270
24356
24430
24520
Rs /kg
36600
36900
37239
37500
37850
$/oz
15.7
33350
3540
55.1
191
398
136
116.7
115.8
938
15.9
33500
3565
55.6
193
401
136.7
117.5
116.5
950
16.13
33680
3606
56.27
196.5
405.3
137.5
118.4
117.4
965.4
16.3
33900
3630
56.8
199
407
138.3
119
118
972
16.52
34100
3665
57.4
202
410
139.1
119.9
118.7
985
Rs /bbl
$/bbl
Rs /mmbtu
$/tonne
Rs /kg
Rs /kg
Rs /kg
Rs /kg
Nickel Dec’14
Support 2
Rs /kg
Important Events for Today
Indicator
Household Spending y/y
Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Prelim Industrial Production m/m
Retail Sales y/y
Average Cash Earnings y/y
German Bank Holiday
Italian Bank Holiday
Bank Holiday
Country
Time (IST)
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Euro
Euro
UK
5:00am
5:00am
5:20am
5:20am
7:00am
All Day
All Day
All Day
-2.5%
2.3%
-0.6%
0.4%
-1.5%
-
-3.5%
2.3%
1.0%
1.2%
0.5%
-
-4.0%
2.4%
0.4%
1.4%
0.2%
-
Impact
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
-