Overnight Report 21 October 2014
Transcription
Overnight Report 21 October 2014
Overnight Report 21 October 2014 Compiled by Azwidovhi Tshishonga (Trainee Analyst), moderated by Henry Flint (Head of Research) The Overnight Report is compiled from various sources, including I-Net BFA, Bloomberg, Reuters, Business Day, Moneyweb, Cordros Capital and JSE SENS. SOUTH AFRICA JSE share price moves South African stocks treaded water on Monday ahead of a budget speech later in the week, even as investors continued to hammer Johannesburg-listed bullion producers such as AngloGold Ashanti. • The Top-40 index was down 0.6% to 42 479 while the All-Share Index lost 0.5% to 47 599. • South African markets should open easier (-0.3%) following weaker Asian and US futures markets after better than expected growth numbers from China dimmed prospects for further stimulus and retail sales growth slowed. • A stronger rand against firmer metal prices should leave the miners flat for the opening. • The yield on the 2026 benchmark South African government bond nudged up half a basis point to 8.08%, trading within last week's levels. • This morning as at 06h38 in Johannesburg, the rand was trading at R11.01/$, R14.12/€ and R17.82/£ respectively. WEST AFRICA – NIGERIA • All prices are correct as of 23:49:03 20 Oct 2014 WINNERS 12.00% METAIR 10.30% 8.67% NET1UEPS -12.59% GOODERSON -8.33% ASSORE -6.30% -6.25% KAP 7.79% EHSV POYNTING 5.81% RANGOLD -5.91 JSE trading volumes All prices are correct as of 23:49:03 20 Oct 2014 The NSE ASI increased by 1.22% to close at 38,662.65 points, while the market capitalization also increased by N153.52 billion to close at N12.77 trillion. • The naira appreciated against the three currency pairs tracked. It appreciated against the dollar and euro to trade at N165.25/$ and N210.91/€ respectively. The naira also strengthened significantly against the pound to trade at N266.70/£. EUROPE The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.5% to 317.01 at the close of trading, after earlier falling as much as 1.1%. FIRSTRAND 8,975,649 -0.90% STEINHOFF 8,523,986 0.08% OLDMUTUAL 6,680,802 -0.96% MERAFE 5,886,536 -3.88% RICHEMONT 4,999,896 -1.03% JSE trading statistics US The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9% to 1,904.02 at 4 p.m. New York time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) added 19.26 points, or 0.1%, to 16,399.67. • INTEWASTE WESCOAL • • LOSERS Value of shares traded (R'M) 20577.337 Volume of shares traded (M) 343.715 Number of Deals 328434 ASIA Up deals 345 • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3% by 12:41 p.m. in Tokyo. COMMODITIES Down deals 158 Flat deals 374 • Gold held near a five-week high as investors assessed the global economy and the outlook for monetary policies amid the biggest sale in a year from the largest exchange-traded product. Source: I-Net BFA Dow Jones JSE All-Share 54000 17500 52000 17000 50000 16500 48000 16000 46000 15500 44000 15000 42000 14500 40000 02/01/14 16/02/14 02/04/14 17/05/14 01/07/14 15/08/14 29/09/14 14000 02/01/14 21/02/14 12/04/14 01/06/14 21/07/14 09/09/14 Today’s economic data releases Local time 09h00 16h00 Source: Bloomberg Country SA US Indicator Leading Indicator Existing Home Sales Period Aug Sep Relevance High Low Previous 100.2 5.05M Consensus Forecast 5.10M SOUTH AFRICA South African stocks treaded water on Monday ahead of a budget speech later in the week, even as investors continued to hammer Johannesburg-listed bullion producers such as AngloGold Ashanti. South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene will deliver his maiden budget speech on Wednesday in which he is expected to try to assuage concerns about South Africa's economy. September's inflation statistics are also scheduled for release on Wednesday. Consumer inflation rose to 6.4% in August, faster than the 6.2% analysts had expected. The central bank anticipates 2014 inflation at 6.2%. The Top-40 index was down 0.6% to 42 479 while the All-share index lost 0.5% to 47 599. Johannesburg's gold mining index dropped more than 3% with AngloGold losing nearly 4%t to R109.35. The stock has lost more than 10% so far this year. Gold Fields, South Africa's second-biggest gold producer, lost 3% to R41.20 even after saying it was on track to meet its full-year output forecast. Auto parts maker Metair Investments rose more than 10% after giving a positive trading update. Metair said it has embarked on catch-up plans to recover volumes lost during a strike earlier in the year, and that it has also secured several contracts related to its batteries. Activity was relatively sluggish with 163 million shares traded, according to preliminary bourse data, compared to last year's daily average of 176 million shares. Decliners outnumbered advancers 165 to 125. WEST AFRICA – NIGERIA The equities market reverted at the close of Monday's trading session, following ten consecutive bouts of bearish spree, as renewed interests and fresh bargain hunting supported the index higher. The NSE ASI increased by 1.22% to close at 38,662.65 points, while the market capitalization also increased by N153.52 billion to close at N12.77 trillion. Four out of the five sectoral index appreciated. The Banking index toped the gainers chart with a 2.13% return, while the Industrial Goods index, Oil/Gas index and Insurance index followed with a 2.13%, 1.72% and 0.41% increase respectively. However, the Consumer Goods index depreciated marginally by 0.17%. The market breadth returned positive, as 34 gainers outweighed 19 laggards. Volume traded declined by 2.42% to N353.80million shares, worth N4.15 billion and traded in 5,221 deals. The naira appreciated against the three currency pairs tracked. It appreciated against the dollar and euro to trade at N165.25/$ and N210.91/€ respectively. The naira also strengthened significantly against the pound to trade at N266.70/£. EUROPE European stocks fell, following their longest streak of weekly losses in more than a year, as worse-than-estimated financial results added to concerns over the region’s economic recovery. SAP SE lost 5.8% after the world’s largest supplier of business-management software cut its full-year earnings forecast. Royal Philips NV declined 3.7% after third-quarter sales and profit missed analysts’ estimates. Nutreco NV rallied the most since at least 1997 after SHV agreed to buy the fishfeed maker. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.5% to 317.01 at the close of trading, after earlier falling as much as 1.1%. European equities have led a rout that erased as much as $5.5 trillion from the value of shares worldwide amid speculation that the European Central Bank’s stimulus measures will not be enough to spur growth. “This correction might be the symptom for something larger,” Benedict Goette, founder of asset-management firm Compass Capital AG in Zurich, said in an interview. “I do not expect a big positive impulse from the current earnings season in Europe. Unless a multi-day up-move develops, people will remain nervous. We’re now in the highly volatile phase of attempting to bottom, but I would expect a final bottom only by the end of October or mid-November.” US U.S. stocks rallied for a third day as optimism over corporate earnings spurred a rebound from last week’s selloff. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9% to 1,904.02 at 4 p.m. New York time. The index has fallen for the past four weeks and is down 5.3% since Sept. 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) added 19.26 points, or 0.1%, to 16,399.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.4%. Profit for S&P 500 companies probably rose 5.9% in the third quarter, a forecast that’s been revised upward from an increase of 4.8% as of Oct. 10, and sales increased 4%, according to analysts’ projections compiled by Bloomberg. “It’s all about earnings,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, the New York-based senior market strategist at Voya Investment Management LLC. Voya oversees $215 billion. “Yes, IBM earnings were a big miss, but other company earnings are coming in better than expected and that’s good news. The growth rate for the third quarter has been ratcheted up and that’s some good news for the market.” ASIA Asian stocks retreated after the regional benchmark gauge surged the most in two years yesterday, while U.S. Treasuries advanced with the yen. The Australian (GACGB10) dollar and copper climbed as China reported growth and industrial production figures that beat estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3% by 12:41 p.m. in Tokyo, as Japan’s Topix index slid 1.2% after a 4% jump yesterday. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropped 0.3% after three days of gains in the U.S. and 10-year Treasury yields dropped three basis points. The so-called Aussie strengthened 0.3% and copper added 0.5%, while Hong Kong shares erased gains from immediately after the data release. While China’s economy expanded 7.3% in the third quarter from a year before, beating estimates for growth of 7.2%, it was still the slowest pace since 2009. China’s Communist Party leadership convenes its policy-setting plenum this week. The European Central Bank started buying covered bonds yesterday, people familiar with the move said. The Asia-Pacific gauge surged 2.2% yesterday, the most since Sept. 7, 2012. All 33 groups on the Topix slid today after its biggest advance since June last year. The yen strengthened to 106.57 per dollar, its first gain in four days. “China’s data shows growth remains lacklustre in the second half even though the government undertook stimulus and injected liquidity in the market,” said Benjamin Tam, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at IG Investment Ltd. “There won’t be big stimulus but there could be mini stimulus in the coming months. The focus is on the fourth plenum to see whether there could be significant changes in the reform policy.” GOVERNMENT BONDS The yield on the 2026 benchmark South African government bond nudged up half a basis point to 8.08%, trading within last week's levels. Treasury two-year notes gained for the first time in three days amid speculation U.S. economic growth may be restrained by global headwinds, prompting the Federal Reserve to delay interest-rate increases. Demand for U.S. debt was bolstered as bond yields rose in Portugal, Spain and Italy, even as the European Central Bank began its purchases of covered bonds, adding to signs of economic stagnation in the region. U.S. debt rallied last week amid the most turbulent period for U.S. bonds in more than three years. Two-year note yields fell two basis points, or 0.02percentage point, to 0.35% at 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 0.5% securities maturing in September 2016 added 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 9/32. Benchmark 10year yields were little changed at 2.19%. The yield dropped as much as 34 basis points on Oct. 15 to 1.86%, the lowest level since May 2013. “The market is expecting a more dovish Fed, which pushes out the timeline for rate hikes and will continue to support the front end,” said Thomas Simons, a government-debt economist in New York at Jefferies Group LLC, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the central bank. “The front end is showing fair value at these levels. The Fed won’t raise rates until the fourth quarter of next year.” FOREIGN EXCHANGE The rand gained against the dollar on Monday, starting a risk-heavy week in firm territory after heavy losses last week, with investors waiting for the finance ministry's update on the budget and economic outlook to provide direction. The rand gained its way close to the psychologically key 11 area on Monday, but worries about South Africa's budget deficit capped rand bulls at 11.0180 per dollar. Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene is due to deliver his medium term budget statement on Wednesday and economists expect a wider budget deficit target for this year. Concerns about a widening shortfall on the budget add to worries about a yawning gap on the current account. Investors are also keenly awaiting an announcement about how the government plans to plug a funding gap in state-owned power utility Eskom. The anticipated larger funding requirement is keeping bonds trading within recent ranges. South Africa's gross loan debt target increased by 0.9 percentage points in the last budget in February. The Treasury is likely to borrow abroad to help fund part of any gap. This week investors will also be looking out for the central bank's business cycle indicator on Tuesday, a key gauge of the economic outlook, and will position for inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar held declines from yesterday against a majority of its major peers as traders speculated a slowdown in global growth will delay the timing of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the currency against a basket of 10 counterparts, has weakened 0.8% so far this month amid shifting Fed expectations before policy makers next meet Oct. 28-29. Australia’s dollar halted an advance from yesterday ahead of a report forecast to show an expansion of Chinese gross domestic product slowed, while industrial production growth accelerated. The Bloomberg dollar index was little changed at 1,062.37 at 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo after yesterday falling 0.2%. The greenback traded at $1.2795 per euro from $1.28 yesterday, when it declined 0.3%. It fetched 106.87 yen from 106.95. Australia’s currency bought 87.78 U.S. cents after climbing 0.5% to 87.84 yesterday. New Zealand’s kiwi was little changed at 79.64 U.S. cents. “The dollar will probably struggle a little bit at least until after the Fed meeting next week,” said Ray Attrill, global co-head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “It will aggravate existing concerns about global growth if we do have a combination of a relatively soft GDP and industrial production doesn’t bounce,” in China, he said. COMMODITIES Gold held near a five-week high as investors assessed the global economy and the outlook for monetary policies amid the biggest sale in a year from the largest exchange-traded product. Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,247.34 an ounce at 12:24 p.m. in Singapore from $1,246.91 yesterday, when prices rose 0.7%, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal climbed to $1,249.75 on Oct. 15, the highest level since Sept. 11, amid a rout in global equities. Gold last week posted the first consecutive weekly gain since July as the dollar fell from a four-year high on speculation slowing global growth may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay raising borrowing costs. Policy makers at the bank are expected to halt bond purchases next week, winding back their quantitativeeasing program. While assets in SPDR Gold Trust expanded last week for the first week in five, the holdings slumped 1.2% yesterday to the lowest since November 2008. Futures traders put the odds of a U.S. rate increase at 46% by October 2015, down from 51% last week. Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet on Oct. 28-29, when they are expected to end monthly bond-buying, just as the European Central Bank begins an asset-purchase program. Data today may show U.S. existing home sales rebounded in September. “While the market isn’t sure when the Fed will raise rates, we still expect QE to end at the October meeting as economic data continues to show improvement,” said Zhu Runyu, an analyst at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China’s biggest listed brokerage. “At the same time, Europe has embarked on loosening monetary policy. This will weaken the euro against the dollar, extending gold’s longer-term downtrend.” Copper rebounded as economic growth and factory output data from China, the biggest user of industrial metals, beat analysts’ estimates. Copper rallied as much as 0.8% in London after losing 1.2% yesterday. China’s gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 7.3% from a year earlier, compared with the 7.2% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Industrial output in September expanded 8%, compared with the 7.5% forecast in a separate survey and 6.9% in August. A private manufacturing PMI gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics for October will be 50.2, unchanged from the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey before the data is released Oct. 23. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange climbed 0.5% to $6,594 a ton at 11:20 a.m. in Tokyo. The metal touched $6,530 on Oct. 17, the lowest since April 15. In New York, futures for December delivery was little changed at $2.99 a pound, while copper for the same month rose 0.3% to 47,200 yuan ($7,710) a ton in Shanghai. On the LME, nickel fell for a second day. Zinc, lead and aluminum were little changed. Tin hadn’t traded. “Today’s data showed China’s economy is not that much worse than people expected,” said Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at Fujitomi Co., a commodities broker in Tokyo. “Investors will watch another report on China’s purchasing managers index later this week.” ENERGY West Texas Intermediate traded near the highest level in four days amid speculation motor-fuel inventories shrank in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London. Futures were little changed in New York from the close of Oct. 17. Gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.45 million barrels to a two-year low, a Bloomberg News survey shows before government data tomorrow. WTI rebounded on Oct. 16 from the lowest intraday price since June 2012 after the Energy Information Administration reported a 4 million drop that more than doubled the median analyst estimate. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last week that there’s no oversupply to justify the sell-off. Oil is paring its collapse into a bear market as banks including BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. predict the rout may be over. They’re in part counting on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce supply as the U.S. pumps the most oil in almost three decades and Russia’s output rises to a near a post-Soviet record. WTI for December delivery, the most-actively traded, was at $82.15 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 24 cents, at 3:30 p.m. Sydney time. The November contract, which expires today, gained 29 cents to $83. The volume of all futures traded was 36% below the 100-day average. Front-month prices have decreased 16% this year. “If OPEC doesn’t cut, the market will go lower,” David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone today. “The U.S. won’t stop production. It’s the supply-demand scenario affecting the market.” Key Indicators Indices 2014 Last/Close 115 Daily Move Points% 110 105 Global Markets 100 Dow Jones 95 16399.67 0.12% Week Month YTD 12 month % % % % -0.25% 6.55% 0.48% -4.50% S&P 500 1904.01 0.91% 1.56% -4.53% 3.93% 9.13% Nasdaq 4316.07 1.35% 2.43% -4.67% 4.18% 10.10% FTSE 100 DAX 6267.07 8717.76 -0.68% -1.50% -1.56% -1.07% -7.48% -10.58% -6.71% -7.26% -5.82% -1.69% 90 85 02/01/14 03/03/14 02/05/14 01/07/14 30/08/14 JSE All Share FTSE 100 Dow Jones HangSeng CAC 40 3991.24 -1.04% -2.14% -10.16% -5.58% -6.68% HangSeng 23070.26 0.20% 0.10% -3.70% -1.16% -1.57% 1390 Nikkei225 15111.23 3.98% -1.24% -6.75% -5.01% 2.84% 1350 Australia 5307.30 0.90% 2.99% -1.13% -1.16% -0.83% Gold $ 1430 1310 South African Market 1270 1230 All Share 47599.25 -0.50% 0.49% -5.72% 2.17% 5.95% Top-40 42479.53 -0.60% 0.71% -6.11% 1.66% 5.94% 1190 1150 02/01/14 Gold 03/03/14 02/05/14 01/07/14 30/08/14 Platinum 1090.07 -3.23% -7.12% -15.55% 1.16% -13.80% 36.62 -0.94% -0.89% -6.36% -27.48% -26.61% Banks 62997.63 -0.65% 0.88% -3.28% 8.62% 7.91% Industrial 64313.27 -0.28% 0.92% -5.12% 3.13% 8.99% Financial 13838.75 -0.56% 0.72% -5.86% 8.02% 9.62% 1450 Resources 49303.22 -1.16% -0.50% -7.64% -3.79% -2.18% 1400 Commodities 1350 Brent Futures $ 85.40 -0.88% -3.93% -11.93% -20.76% -22.11% 1300 Gold $ 1241.00 0.24% 1.06% 2.22% 1.74% -5.70% Copper $ 6615.00 -0.21% -2.75% -2.46% -11.08% -8.45% Platinum $ 1266.50 0.40% 0.12% -4.49% -9.76% -11.65% Platinum $ 1550 1500 1250 1200 02/01/14 03/03/14 02/05/14 01/07/14 30/08/14 Currencies R159 7.6 7.4 USDZAR 11.02 0.52% -0.02% 1.34% -3.21% -11.99% 7.2 EURZAR 14.10 0.23% -0.61% 1.70% 3.32% -4.84% 7.0 GBPZAR 17.81 0.05% -0.70% 2.49% -1.45% -12.21% 6.8 EURUSD 1.28 -0.28% -0.46% 0.43% 6.38% 6.45% USDGBP 0.62 0.40% 0.53% -1.28% -1.79% 0.10% GBPEUR 1.26 -0.17% -0.08% 0.83% -4.94% -7.01% NCD 3-month 6.15 0.00% 2.38% 1.28% -16.04% -17.59% R157 6.80 0.37% 0.44% 0.22% -9.07% -17.36% 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 02/01/14 Bonds/Rates 03/03/14 02/05/14 01/07/14 30/08/14 US 10yr 3.2 3 ALBI 469.66 -0.30% 0.01% -0.78% -7.95% -6.33% GOVI 468.21 -0.28% -0.04% -0.82% -7.74% -6.14% 2.19 -1.39% 5.19% 14.79% 26.76% 16.09% 2.8 US 10yr 2.6 Source: I-Net BFA Note: 1) Negative (-) indicates currency depreciation; positive (+) indicates currency appreciation. 2) Negative (-) indicates increase in yields (decrease in price); positive (+) indicates decrease in yields (increase in price). 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 02/01/14 03/03/14 02/05/14 01/07/14 30/08/14 Companies – Dividends (Bloomberg) Company Code Bowler Metcalf Datacentrix Holdings Limited EOH Holdings Limited PSG Konsult Limited Phumelela Gaming & Leisure BCF DCT EOH KST PHM Last Day to Trade 24-October-2014 24-October-2014 24-October-2014 24-October-2014 24-October-2014 1) Based on dividend amount including dividend withholding tax of 15% (g=gross). 2) Based on dividend amount excluding dividend withholding tax of 15% (n=net). Ex-div 27-October-2014 27-October-2014 27-October-2014 27-October-2014 27-October-2014 Final Interim Final Interim Final Dividend Amount (cps) 16.60 g² 8.0908 g 120 g 4g 60 g Dividend Type Companies - Trading Statements (JSE SENS) Company Tradehold Limited Adcorp Holdings Limited Gooderson Leisure Corporation Limited AH-Vest Limited Pioneer Food Group Limited Micromega Holdings Limited Consolidated Infrastructure Group Metmar Limited Infrasors Holdings Limited PSV Holdings Limited Imbalie Beauty Limited Santova Limited Trans Hex Group Limited Wescoal Holdings Limited Afrimat Limited The Foschini Group Tongaat Hulett Limited Dipula Income Fund SABMiller PLC Cadiz Holdings Limited Tiger Brands Limited Argent Industrial Limited DRDGold Limited Invicta Holdings Limited Transaction Capital Limited BSI Steel Limited Insimbi Refractory and Alloy Supplies Limited Stefanutti Stocks Holdings Limited Hulamin Limited Results Due Company Period Interim Interim Interim Final Final Interim Final Interim Interim Interim Interim Interim Interim Interim Interim Final Interim Interim Interim quarter Interim Final Interim Headline EPS Guidance Direction decrease increase decrease decrease increase increase Increase increase Increase decrease decrease Increase increase decrease Increase decrease decrease Range 54% 560%-578% 0.64cps-0.72cps (4.35cps-4.45cps) ≥20% 70% 30%-35% 20.45cps-24.54cps 61%-96% ≥20% (0.72cps-0.32cps) 15.0cps-16.25% ≥20% ≥20% 27.7cps-31.5cps (20%-30%) ≥20% 22-October-14 22-October-14 24-October-14 29-October-14 31-October-14 31-October-14 31-October-14 October-14 03-November-14 03-November-14 04-November-14 06-November-14 06-November-14 11-November-14 13-November-14 13-November-14 17-November-14 19-November-14 20-November-14 24-November-14 November-14 25-November-14 30-November-14 Interim Interim Final decrease increase increase (22%-27%) 20%-40% ≥70cps 30-November-14 23-February-15 Date Reporting Announced 17-October-14 15-October-14 09-October-14 26-September-14 04-September-14 01-October-14 13-October-14 08-October-14 16-October-14 05-August-14 01-October-14 14-October-14 09-September-14 20-October-14 14-October-14 08-October-14 13-Otober-14 23-July-14 11-September-14 10-September-14 12-September-14 15-October-14 20-October-14 Contacts +27 11 375 1000 [email protected] Disclosures This publication has been issued by Thebe Stockbroking Ltd for the information of our clients only. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy or otherwise. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change. The information contained herein reflects our opinion and recommendations, but does not constitute a solicitation for transactions in any of the securities mentioned. We accept no responsibility whatsoever arising from actions taken on the basis of this report or any consequence thereof. Readers are advised that securities of companies have various degrees of risk and volatility. The reader of this research report makes his/her own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments.