Migration and the Economy in Cornwall

Migration and the
Economy in Cornwall
A quantitative analysis on the relationship
between migration and the economy in the
small areas of Cornwall
Stuart Burley
Aims & methods
Explore the pattern of migration in
Cornwall and the economic
implications
 Statistical analysis of 1991 census
data
 Small area analysis, electoral wards
 Urbanisation & counterurbanisation

Urbanisation &
counterurbanisation
Operational definitions
 Urbanisation “a movement from a
state of less concentration to a state
of more concentration” (Tisdale 1942)
 Counterurbanisation “a movement
from a state of more concentration to
a state of less concentration”
(Berry 1976)

Population change 1981 1991
12
10
%natural change
%migration
8
6
4
2
0
-2
rn
o
C
ll
a
w
ut
o
S
st
e
hW
UK
The migratory profile of
Cornwall
Cornwall’s population increase over
the last 20 years is solely attributable
to migration
 Increases by net migration is far
higher than the UK average and
higher than the South west region

Unemployment in Cornwall
1991
10
8
6
4
% Unemployed
2
0
Co
ll
a
rnw
u
So
t
st
e
hw
UK
Male earnings in Cornwall
1991
350
300
250
200
150
£ per week
100
50
0
ll
a
nw
r
Co
S
th
u
o
s
e
w
t
UK
The economic profile of
Cornwall
Cornwall’s unemployment rates are
far higher than the South west region
and higher than the UK
 Earnings in Cornwall are lower than
the South west region and 22.8%
lower than the UK

Why has Cornwall remained
poor?
Structural disadvantages
 Geographically peripheral without a
large urban hub
 Dependence on declining industries –
fishing & agriculture
 Only seasonal benefits from tourism

Why has Cornwall remained
poor?
Population-led economic growth
initiatives showed early signs of
success
 Economic factors, branch closures
and relocations
 Many former in-migrants now
unemployed stayed behind

Why has Cornwall remained
poor?
Particular type of in-migration
 Many moving for quality of life motives
rather than economic improvement
 In-migrants more likely to leave the
labour market than non-migrants
 Economic benefit of migration may be
dependent on the migratory strategies

Age structure of Cornwall
1991 (%)
25
20
15
10
Cornwall
UK average
5
0
1
5
-1
16
9
2
-
r
4
n
e
4
o
i
v
0
ns nd o
3
e
p
a
n
5
4
io
s
n
pe
In & out-migration by age,
1991 (%)
50
In-migration
40
Out-migration
30
20
10
0
1
5
1
-
16
9
2
-
r
4
n
e
4
o
i
v
s
o
30 pen
d
n
a
45 sion
n
pe
Net change by age, 1991
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Net Change
-100
-200
-300
-400
1
1-
5
1
2
6-
9
3
4
0-
4
4
p
5-
en
n
sio
n
pe
nd
a
n
sio
e
ov
r
Cornwall as the mirror image
of the escalator region
Fielding (1992) The South east as an
escalator region
 Cornwall – the first and last stages of
the escalator effect

Urbanisation – Migrant
origins
Urban Wards
25%
All Wards
31%
75%
69%
Internal
migrants
Inmigrants
Urbanisation – Density of
internal migrants origins and
destinations
30
25
25.7
20
15
10
Persons per
hectare
15.7
5
0
Origin Wards
Urban Wards
Urbanisation – Age structure
of internal migrants
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
1
Urban internal
migrants
Average internal
migrants
5
1
2
6
9
er
44 sion
v
o
n
d
30
e
p
an
n
45
io
s
n
pe
Urbanisation – Labour
market explanations
Migration as an equilibrating
mechanism
 Balances the labour demand
differential between areas
 Balances the earnings differential
between areas

Urbanisation – Economic
indicators of origins &
destinations
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
ty
nt
nt
i
e
e
v
ti
m
m
c
y
y
a
lo
lo
c
p
p
i
em
Em
om
n
n
U
o
Ec
Urban wards
(destinations)
Origin wards
All wards average
Urbanisation – Male
earnings 1999
Gross weekly pay
full-time workers £
Urban wards
average
340
All wards
average
348
Urbanisation – Labour
market explanations
No significant difference in the
economic profile of urban wards and
the origin wards
 Earnings are slightly lower than
average in the urban wards
 Little evidence to support labour
market explanations

Urbanisation – Semi-detached
house prices 1999-2002
Average semidetached price £
Urban Wards
79,131
All Wards
82,424
Urbanisation – Housing
availability
Housing completions
1986-1991
Urban Areas
8,705
All Non-Urban Areas
6,643
Urbanisation – Second
homes
% Second homes of
all household spaces
Urban Wards
1
All Wards
5
Urbanisation – Housing
explanations, tenure
% Rented
accommodation
Urban Wards
28.6
All wards
25.2
Urbanisation - Conclusions
Urbanisation of young internal
migrants
 Housing constraints as the most likely
explanations
 ‘Pull’ of greater affordability and
availability of accommodation in urban
areas

Counterurbanisation –
Migrant origins
Rural wards
All wards
30.8
37.9
62.1
69.2
Internal migrants
In-migrants
Counterurbanisation – Density
of in-migrant origins and
destinations
40
35
30
Persons per hectare
37.5
25
20
15
10
0.3
5
0
Origin wards
Rural wards
Counterurbanisation – Age
structure of in-migrants 1991
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
Rural In-migrants
All In-migrants
5
1
-
16
9
2
-
r
n
e
o
v
si
o
0
n
d
3
e
n
p
a
n
5
4
io
s
n
e
p
4
4
-
Counterurbanisation –
Social class of in-migrants
30
Rural In-migrants
Rural Non-migrants
25
20
15
10
5
0
I
II
IIIN
IIIM
IV
V he r
Ot
Counterurbanisation –
Economic activity of 45pensionable age in-migrants
80
75
In-migrants
Non-migrants
70
65
60
Economic activity
Counterurbanisation –
Unemployment of 45pensionable age in-migrants
20
15
In-migrants
Non-migrants
10
5
0
Unemployment
Counterurbanisation –
Unemployment of 45pensionable age in-migrants
160
140
120
100
Rural In-migrants
All In-migrants
80
60
40
20
0
% Unemployment of non-migrants
Counterurbanisation –
Quality of life explanations
Reasons for in% of respondents
migration
Preferred environment
42 %
Rejoin relatives &
friends
Escape urban rat-race
40 %
Enjoyed previous
holidays
38 %
39 %
Counterurbanisation –
House price averages 1991
Cornwall
£ Price semidetached
house
£48,989
% £ more
than
Cornwall
South West
£61,073
24.7 %
South East
£76,607
56.4 %
Greater London
£107,925
120.3 %
Counterurbanisation –
Tenure of in-migrants
100
80
60
81
In-migrants
Non-migrants
75.6
40
20
18.9 24.4
0
Owner Occupied
Rented
Counterurbanisation –
Equity rich work poor
High frequency of In-migrants aged
45-pensionable age in rural wards
 High rates of home ownership
 High rates of unemployment
 Moving for quality of life reasons

Counterurbanisation –
Equity rich work poor
House price differentials
 In-migrants release capital through
house price differentials
 ‘Cash cushion’
 Chosen unemployment
 Pre-retirement fund
 Semi-retirement business ventures

Urbanisation &
counterurbanisation – The
relationship & implications
The equilibrating effect of migration on
house prices
 Destination prices become closer to
the origin prices
 Increases in the price of rural housing

Urbanisation &
counterurbanisation residential
property increases 1999-2002
100
80
60
Rural District
Urban District
Cornwall
40
20
0
% house price increase
Urbanisation &
counterurbanisation – The
relationship & implications
House prices increasing faster than
earnings in the rural areas
 Increased mortgage gap
 Housing market disadvantages nonmigrants but has advantages for inmigrants

First-time buyers unable to afford rural
housing
 Urbanisation of young internal
migrants
 ‘Push’ & ‘pull’ of housing – affordability
and availability

Increased urbanisation of young
people
 Increased demand for employment in
high unemployment areas
 In-migration increases housing
constraints and labour constraints
 Incentives for younger people to leave
the county






Stream of in-migration – equity rich work
poor migrants
Counter-stream of out-migration –
economically ambitious young migrants
Opposite of the South East ‘escalator’
An ageing population
Increased social welfare costs for a
reducing working-age population