Credit Market Summary 31 October
Transcription
Credit Market Summary 31 October
Credit Market Summary 31 October 2014 Portfolio Commentary Yield enhancing diversifier Torben Ronberg Head of Sub-Investment Grade The European HY universe is on a growth path - a path that has enhanced the attractiveness of the market which is now offering a more diverse stable of names to pick from when establishing new portfolios or managing existing portfolios. European High Yield Bond Volume €80B €70B €60B €50B €40B €30B €20B €10B €0B 2006 2007 2008 2009 Secured 2010 2011 Unsecured 2012 2013 Subordinated YTD YTD 24/10/13 24/10/14 Maturity Wall: HY Bonds as of 31/08/2014 €60B €50B €40B €30B €20B 31.9 50.3 49.8 2018 2019 39.5 54.0 42.1 €10B €0B 2016 2017 BofA MLHY 2020 2021 or Later Source for both graphs: S&P European High-Yield Weekly The maturity wall above illustrates a comfortable maturity profile of bonds up for refinancing over the coming years, leaving companies to focus on managing their fundamental business and improve profitability. Another noticeable trend in European HY is a growing part of the market offering security, which should support higher recovery rates in situations of ECM Credit Market Summary 2 default. Historic and expected default rates remain very low for European HY and one could argue that investors are paid adequately for the risk taken. European HY has faced more volatility since the summer with a sell-off during September which for Euro HY (BAML H7PC) resulted in a negative total return of 83.9bps, and for Sterling HY (BAML HLHY) a negative total return of 325.6bps. The sell-off was driven by various aspects such as rate hike concerns, the Scottish referendum, and sector and country specific concerns. October provided a net flat performance after having experienced volatility in the secondary markets, but likely to have been helped by muted primary activity. This said attractive entrance points have started to materialise with Sterling HY looking most attractive. Supported by the high level of spreads offered in European HY, more flat and positive performance months are to be expected going forward. High Yield presents an attractive yield in a low rate environment Relative Yields 8% 7% 6% Yield 6.93% 21.5% Yield 4.66% 3.7% 5% 4% 3% Yield 3.46% 78.5% 57.2% 96.3% 2% 0% 21.9% Yield 1.22% 15.5% 78.1% 84.5% Euro Corp Euro Financial Corp Yield 1.22% 1% 42.8% Sterling Original Issue High Euro Original Issue High Yiel d Sterling Corp Spread % Yield Yield 1.07% Yield 1.15% 47.7% 90.4% 52.3% 9.6% Euro Govt Global Govt Bonds G7 Rates % Yield Source: Bloomberg, BoAML as of 30/10/2014 With the heightened annual new issue volumes experienced over the last few years the universe has broadened but also allowed issuers who would have struggled to issue in the European HY market earlier to refinance their balance sheets. Therefore, as is the case for any sub-investment grade investment asset class, asset selection is also key to successful investments in the European HY market. Despite the technical support from the high spread element performance draw down will remain a risk factor which needs close monitoring. As mentioned above we saw a variation in performance between the Euro and Sterling markets with sub-sections such as retail businesses having a further negative impact on performance. Despite the recent volatility both markets are showing positive YTD total returns of 4.582% and 1.604% respectively. Return Summary for H7PC & HLHY Tue Sep 30 2014 H7PC HLHY Total Return Factors 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month Price Return (Local) -1.304 -1.687 -0.934 0.465 1.425 2.915 -0.839 -0.263 1.981 4.582 Income Return (Local) Total Return (Local) YTD 1-Year 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month YTD 1-Year 0.058 2.053 -3.761 -4.658 -4.592 -3.641 -1.702 4.523 6.282 0.505 1.638 3.376 5.245 7.287 8.335 -3.256 -3.02 -1.215 1.604 5.586 The general hunt for yield experienced recently has brought new types of investors into the European HY asset class. We have experienced demand from domestic and global investors who would normally not go as far as sub-investment grade credit and who are not likely to remain investors long term in the European HY market. This change in investor base is potentially adding to the volatility and liquidity aspect of the European HY market. Pockets of liquidity, a long term conviction investment approach and excellent and diverse access to market participants are tools required to establish exposure in the European HY asset class. An opportunity for established investors to obtain further diversification to their investment strategy with the added benefit of attractive spreads safe guarding returns in times of rate hike concerns and general market volatility. ECM Credit Market Summary 3 Investment Grade Corporates Duncan Warwick-Champion Co-Head of Global Credit Research With the week’s headlines mostly concentrated on the banking sector (ECB’s AQR) and monetary policy (end of US QE and increase in Japanese stimulus) the European reporting season ground on quietly in the background with “beats” continuing to outweigh “misses” by a considerable margin. As we’ve seen through most of this year, top line growth remains elusive for many companies, but management teams remain focused on cost control and thus earnings are repeatedly exceeding expectations. However, what we have found interesting within the plethora of Q3 reports and presentations is how relaxed many management teams appear to be with the Chinese market. We, like others, had flagged China as a particular concern for many European companies, but while pressures within luxury consumer goods are undeniable, elsewhere the data appears to be holding up better than expected. Chinese auto numbers continue to improve, chemical manufactures reported solid (but not spectacular) trends, and companies with exposure to Chinese infrastructure spending also continue to perform well irrespective of whether this exposure is via construction or technology. Turning from Asia, and despite being bombarded with articles about the poor state of the European economy, European consumer data also is holding up better than expected. Consumer confidence numbers are up and we have seen this translated into strong road, rail and air traffic movements. Indeed, the main negative has been the milder than normal weather conditions across Europe which have caught most clothing retailers with high levels of unsold winter stock. Moreover, as a consequence of stable/unexciting operating conditions, a lessening of foreign currency headwinds and improving earnings, we have seen companies start to ratchet-up their returns to shareholders. The increased distributions are not significant in size and therefore will not adversely impact leverage, but you do have to wonder if they are a sign that corporate management teams are feeling a little more confident. Of course, the real sign of confidence will be an increase in long-term capital expenditure and that, sadly, still appears to be some way away. With corporates flying under the radar, the EN40 Corporate BBB index tightened 2bps this week to close on Thursday at 114, which is only 3bps off the YTD tights. The primary market remains relatively thin with about €4bn of bonds issued this week, including €1.5bn from Hutchison Whampoa, a €1.2bn (dual tranche) from Novartis and €500m from Akzo Nobel. Interest Rates Alastair Thomas Head of Rates & Treasury Management This week 10 year treasuries continued their normalisation from the mid-October excessively overbought levels with yields +6bps. However, bund yields were -5bps and gilts unchanged. I expect treasuries to continue to underperform bunds and to a lesser extent gilts in the short term with the 10 year spread retracing towards mid-October’s levels which are some 10 bps wider than current levels. This view is based on the diverging monetary policy and economic prospects. by lower energy prices but see the risk of persistently lower than target inflation as having “diminished somewhat since early this year”. They finally ended QE and maintained rates at 0-0.25% with the wording that rates will remain close to zero for a “considerable period”. As a result 2 year yields jumped 7bps and the yield curve flattened. We expect the flattening to continue as we approach rate hikes in the middle of next year so long as data does not get worse. The statement from this week’s FOMC was slightly more hawkish than some expected with an upgrade to their assessment of the labour market and no reference to increased downside risks to the economy (rather they see the risks to the economy and labour market as “nearly balanced”). They noted that inflation will likely be held down Gilts outperformed treasuries partly due to the new BoE deputy governor Shafik’s stating that she saw “no significant evidence” of inflationary pressure in the economy and the UK jobless rate could fall further without generating inflationary pressure. The low inflationary environment in Europe was highlighted by the Swedish ECM Credit Market Summary 4 Riksbank reducing from 0.25% to 0.0% and further lowering their inflation projection for 2015. The Eurozone’s estimated October CPI is a low 0.4%. US durable goods orders were weaker than expected but Q3 GDP at 3.5% qoq was strong as was the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Conference Board consumer confidence number. The last data point is particularly relevant for the employment outlook due to the survey questions related to employment prospects. Eurozone data was generally weak: a fall in the IFO business climate index, a plunge in German exports to Russia but an easing in the Eurozone’s bank credit standards with demand for loans up the most since 2011. Loans Sam McGairl Portfolio Manager Conditions in the new issue loan market have favoured borrowers for most of the year, but the recent volatility has led to pushback from investors. This week three transactions have been moving towards a close and none of them have been smooth rides through the primary process, despite being names which are well known to leveraged finance investors. Drug company AMCo has been wrapping up a dividend recap but the payment out to sponsor Cinven has caused investors to question the transaction, even though the borrower has performed well and delevered considerably in the two years since it first came to the market. Price talk has widened to E+450-475 and L+500-525 at an issue price of 99.5. Similarly, RAC has performed strongly in recent years but a refinancing related to a stake sale by the sponsor to the Singaporean GIC has also struggled in primary. Pricing there has widened to L+475 at 98.5. Both of these two contain large GBP tranches but the pushback has affected Euro denominated issues as well – Styrolution’s loan backing Ineos’ purchase of the 50% which it does not already own looks set to price at E+550 with a 1% floor at 98. In this case pricing has been somewhat influenced by where loan pricing in the US currently stands. The secondary market best reflects the differential between the US and Europe where investors can still pick up one to two points by switching out of EUR into USD for the same borrower, albeit usually with a small drop in margin. The CLO warehouse technical continues to underpin the bid for Euro assets with most names grinding higher over the week. A sharp drop in the price of TDF on Tuesday was mistakenly attributed to a large seller which never was and the loans have returned to a 96.5/97.5 market today. High Yield Henry Craik-White Senior Investment Analyst The market tried to consolidate this week but it feels like there are trapped longs in some of the more risky names, causing them to underperform. Also, half term holidays exacerbated the liquidity situation in cash, leaving many reaching for synthetic hedges to cover their cash books, which may now be unwound following the unexpected increase in Japanese QE. Spreads on cash bonds in the Merrill Lynch H9PC index widened by 2bps and the iTraxx Xover CDS index broadly matched this, with spreads widening by 3bps. Earnings season continues and on the whole the sentiment was positive. In the TMT sector, Baltic telco, Bite, reported profits which were down 11% but in-line with expectations. ECM Credit Market Summary Its bonds have fallen 14 points in October which reflects the change in the way the market now views smaller, risky credits. French cable TV operator, Numericable had a good quarter with revenues and profits up 4% and 5% respectively. However, this news played second fiddle to the confirmation that’s its proposed acquisition of French telco, SFR, had been approved. Equipment manufacturer, Alcatel missed on the top line but handily beat at the profit level due to recent cost cutting, driving margins up by over 200bps. Its five year CDS tightened 20bps on the news. In the UK, regional newspaper publisher, Johnston Press, confirmed that its plans to shift from print to digital is still on track and profits are likely to be at a similar level to last year. This stable profit outlook sent its bonds up two points. 5 In the autos space, Renault reported volumes which were flat but it saw good growth in Europe, with volumes up 7.6% driven by the UK, Spain and Italy. Its emerging market activities are offsetting this but the company did reaffirm its guidance for the year and remains a possible candidate for upgrade back to investment grade. Competitor, Fiat, also reported Q3 numbers which weren’t as strong but these were the side show to news that it plans to spin off Ferrari and reduce its core debt by issuing a mandatory convertible bond. If successful, leverage would fall to c.1x which is still at the higher end of the sector. Its stock responded well, rising 11% but the credit markets were less impressed with its five year CDS broadly unchanged. On-line travel agent, eDreams was the most volatile name as news broke late Friday afternoon that airline group, IAG, had withdrawn ticket sales from some of its websites due to a disagreement on how booking fees were disclosed to customers. The initial bond move was extreme with its sub bonds falling fifty points. The company subsequently hosted a conference call which confirmed IAG sales were a very small part of its business and that some ticket sales had resumed, which sent its bonds back up forty points. Holders of Italian telco Wind bonds saw prices marked up two points after news broke that its owners, Vimplecom, were in active discussions with 3 Italia over the already much publicised potential merger. The move was then reversed when Vimplecom confirmed talks had broken down due to the lack of agreement on how the deal should be structured. There were three deals in the primary market this week, totalling €0.8bn equivalent. These came from Abengoa’s listed spin off, Abengoa Yield, which issued €200m of five year notes, Jaguar Landrover, which issued $500m of unsecured notes and debt management agency, Arrow Global, which issued €220m of secured notes to finance its acquisition of competitor, Capquest. Sovereigns & Financials Satish Pulle Head of Financials & ABS Robert Montague Senior Investment Analyst The Big Picture from the Comprehensive Assessment Unfortunately, regulators’ stress tests for banks are becoming increasingly complex, with many factors being considered – economic forecasts, NPLs, future bank earnings, provisions, capital quality, deferred tax assets etc. It is sometimes more instructive to step back from the excruciating detail, and focus instead on a few simple facts and figures: Total Non-performing Exposures (NPE): €879 Billion Collateral Value backing NPEs: €328 Billion NPE provisions: €242 Billion The key problem facing many Eurozone banking systems is that this large volume of NPLs cannot be resolved easily. Bankruptcy systems are archaic or in suspension in Italy, Greece, Portugal and Ireland. For each non-performing loan that a bank puts into default, there is a knock-on impact on other firms. Crucially, at a system level, the collateral value of €328bn is somewhat suspect, as most of it is real estate, and distressed transactions have been ECM Credit Market Summary few and far between – if even 20% of real estate collateral backing NPEs is forcibly sold by banks, all values would fall sharply. This brings us to provisions, which are clearly too low at just 27.5% of NPEs. This means banks would have to recognise further losses on any defaults, because collateral recoveries and provisions are insufficient. What level of provisions would be sufficient for banks to be able to take a strong stance with non-performing borrowers? We suspect provisions would have to be as high as 50% - 75% of NPEs, or €200bn - €400bn higher than current levels. This then leaves the question of whether capital is sufficient to absorb loan losses in excess of collateral and provisions. Core Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital for the banks tested by the ECB is roughly €1tn, which is clearly insufficient in the context of €879bn in NPEs, with insufficient provisions coverage. Furthermore, while most banks have passed, many are dependent on a particularly weak form of deferred tax assets (DTAs), which only create capital if future profits are significant. The ECB considered this arcane issue sufficiently important to devote three pages to it in their report. The stock of DTAs which require future profitability to contribute true capital is high: €26bn in Spain, €23bn in France; €16bn in Germany, €10.5bn (15% 6 of CET1) in Greece, €7bn in Italy, €6bn Ireland, and €3bn in Portugal. These are the reasons behind yesterday’s comment by the Chairman of the European Banking Authority, Andrea Enria, as quoted by Bloomberg: …the stress test “was very robust and very severe. Was it fool-proof? Of course not.” Financials The start of the week began with the market digesting the results from the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment. From our perspective there was no major surprises with an aggregate shortfall of €25bn across twenty-five banks; however twelve of these institutions have already raised €15bn of capital, leaving the other banks to raise €10bn. It was also not surprising that the Italian and Greek banking sectors were the worst performers but we were slightly surprised at how well the German banks in particular NordLB performed in the tests. Bonds in some of the perceived borderline names which passed the stress tests such as NordLB, Banco Popular and Allied Irish Banks performed strongly on the news. Monte dei Paschi was the major casualty of the stress test with the bank reporting a €2.1bn shortfall and scrambling to find a private sector solution in the next two weeks. Credit markets will now start to focus on the deliberations of the G20 meeting in Brisbane at the end of November on TLAC (see last week’s Credit Market Summary for more details) and the implications for bank issuance. The Coco market was somewhat choppy, trying to rally with equities, but facing headwinds from potential issuance. The new issue market remains fairly quiet as we are in the middle of reporting season but we expect some smaller banks to issue AT1, having passed the ECB Comprehensive Assessment. BBVA said that it would look to issue more AT1 in early 2015, whilst RBS said they would look to come to issue AT1 for the first time in 2015 once there was more regulatory clarity and their own capital position was stronger. Greek senior bonds also rallied initially but this proved to be short-lived as investors focused on the continuing uncertain political backdrop of presidential elections in early 2015. Q3 earnings from European banks were generally positive with the notable exception of Standard Chartered; the bank is clearly now suffering from the hangover of several years of strong China and commodity-related loan growth. Sentiment toward the name was also hurt by news that the US regulators might re-open a probe into its 2012 sanctions agreement. Asset-Backed Securities Maddi Rowlatt Asset Class Specialist, ABS The ABS market this week was mainly focussed on a large BWIC sale by BayernLB of US and European mixed ABS assets. The list comprised 650 names, of varying ratings, adding to a total size of €6.5bn. Around half of this consisted of European bonds, of which under 20% are eligible for the ECB ABS purchase programme, due to commence next month. The large amount of paper was well absorbed in the market, giving investors confidence in sustained demand for paper. The secondary market was very quiet outside of this BWIC execution given the large size and work undertaken by brokers and investors. Spreads remained steady and there was little reaction to the ECB announcement on Thursday. The ECB announced that four asset managers, Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, State Street Global Advisors, ING IM, and Amundi have been appointed to help with the ABS purchasing programme. Rather than directly purchase assets, as they do for the CBPPP3, the ECB will use these appointed managers to help with pricing and to pre-select ECM Credit Market Summary securities with final purchase decisions being made by various committees comprising members of national central banks and the ECB. A new Paragon Mortgages UK Buy to Let RMBS was announced this week, the third one in this year. Paragon Mortgages No.21 is marketing three tranches with initial price thoughts for Class A notes at 3-month Libor + 75-80 bps. Issue size is expected to be around £250mm, with pricing due early next week. Bumper 6, a Dutch Auto deal from LeasePlan Netherlands is also still marketing. Volkwagen placed Private Driver 2014-4 with two tranches; 1.97-year Triple A and 2.51-year Double A notes came at 27bp and 65bp over three-month Euribor respectively, managing to bring VW’s spreads back to September levels after a wider October. 7 Emerging Markets Duncan Warwick-Champion Co-Head of Global Credit Research At its 31st October monetary policy meeting the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) stepped up its efforts to support the rouble and hiked its benchmark policy interest rate by 150bps to 9.50%. The rate hike was larger than consensus expectations of +50bps, though is unsurprising given the pace at which the rouble has plummeted through the second half of 2014. In a policy statement accompanying the rate hike the CBR noted that “significant changes in external conditions have taken place: a considerable fall in oil prices and stricter sanctions imposed by certain countries” and that rouble depreciation risked “further acceleration in inflation”. The day prior to the policy meeting the rouble had rallied strongly – rising by approximately 5% against the CBR’s dollar/euro basket. The move was attributed to shorts covering ahead of the CBR meeting as rumours circulated that the central bank was set to intervene in the FX market much more aggressively and unpredictably, thereby making the rouble less of a one-way bet. Higher interest rates will certainly be rouble-supportive, though are unlikely to translate into a dramatic recovery in the currency – immediately after the CBR rate hike announcement the rouble had already given up half of the prior day’s gains. ECM Credit Market Summary However, the risk of a calamitous fall in the currency that endangers financial stability has certainly reduced. Credit default swaps on the Russian sovereign end the week 14bps tighter at 237bps. The one-day rally in the rouble also coincided with the signing of a gas deal between Russia, Ukraine and the EU in which Russia agreed to resume supplies to Ukraine. Under the deal the EU and IMF have pledged to provide US$4.6bn in financial aid to the Ukrainian government so that it can repay existing debts to Gazprom and make payments for future gas supplies. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso described the deal as the “first glimmer” of hope that tensions between Russia and the West will ease. Moscow’s insistence that it will recognise the outcome of rebel-organised elections in the east of Ukraine set for 2nd November suggests that such easing may still be some way away. 8 ECM Market Monitor As at 30 October 2014 CREDIT MARKETS* 1WK MTD 2014 YTD 2013 Source EURO CORPORATES 0.08% 0.25% 2.14% 2.72% BofA ML ER00 EURO IG FINANCIALS 0.12% 0.29% 2.26% 3.24% BofA ML EB00 EURO HIGH YIELD 0.19% 0.03% 1.63% 9.95% BofA ML HE00 -0.03% -0.73% 1.11% 4.63% BofA ML UN00 STERLING IG FINANCIALS 0.16% -0.72% 1.54% 7.47% BofA ML UF00 US CORPORATES 0.01% -0.50% 1.21% 2.86% BofA ML C0A0 US IG FINANCIALS 0.06% -0.31% 1.29% 4.07% BofA ML CF00 US HIGH YIELD 0.12% -0.07% 1.50% 9.19% BofA ML H0A0 EURO LOANS 0.11% -0.21% 2.62% 9.63% S&P Euro denominated ELLI* EQUITY MARKETS 1WK MTD YTD 2013 Source FTSE 100 0.70% -2.23% -1.03% 19.05% UKX INDEX S&P 500 2.27% 1.25% 9.70% 32.37% SPX INDEX NIKKEI 225 3.43% -3.19% -2.43% 59.37% NKY INDEX 1WK MTD YTD 2013 Source BRENT OIL -0.68% -8.90% -22.17% -0.28% CO1 COMDTY GOLD -2.69% -0.78% -0.57% -28.04% GOLDS COMDTY 1WK MTD YTD 2013 Source USD -0.26% -0.14% -8.22% 4.17% EURUSD CURNCY GBP -0.08% 1.18% -5.05% 2.26% EURGBP CURNCY JPY 0.61% -0.53% -4.82% 26.45% EURJPY CURNCY 1WK MTD YTD 2013 Source -0.22% 1.80% 7.44% -5.92% ITRR7T10 index 0.07% 1.76% 8.24% -5.08% QX6I index STERLING NONGILTS COMMODITY MARKETS CURRENCY MARKETS VS EUR Asset-Backed Securities RATES MARKETS US 10YRS GILTS 10YRS BUNDS 10YRS 0.35% 0.64% 10.72% -1.60% QW3Q index -0.22% 2.15% 8.97% -7.64% U10C EURO SWAP 10 YRS 0.63% 0.77% 13.06% -2.81% E10C STERLING SWAP 10YRS 0.16% 2.04% 9.42% -6.65% S10C 1WK MTD YTD 2013 Source ITRAXX MAIN -0.04% 0.13% 1.44% 4.04% ERIXITEU index ITRAXX CROSSOVER -0.51% -0.38% 6.54% 17.79% ERIXITXO index US SWAP 10YRS CDS MARKETS ECM Credit Market Summary 9 ECM in the Media Recent articles 24 October Markets punch drunk Investment Europe 24 October EDreams plunges after Iberia, British Airways halt ticketing Bloomberg 24 October European markets show signs of stress Wall Street Journal, NASDAQ, Capital.gr, ADFVN, Markets Spectator 22 October European stocks jump as ECB mulls buying corporate bonds The Wall Street Journal, NASDAQ 21 October Test fears hit German sub bonds International Financial Review 13 October I should CoCo? Portfolio Institutional 13 October German sub bonds rocked by threat of stress test failures International Financial Review, Reuters 10 October ECB involvement leaves investors grappling with low returns Capital Structure 02 October CLOs: The Comeback Kings International Financing Review (IFR), Hedge Fund Insight 01 October Solvency II drives insurers into sub-bond market Reactions 29 September Junk-Bond rout amplified bt Gross exit as sales expected Bloomberg Click here to view ECM’s press archive ECM Credit Market Summary 10 ECM Asset Management Limited 34 Grosvenor Street, London W1K 4QU Tel: +44 (0) 20 7529 7400 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7529 7411 ECM, Wells Fargo Asset Management and WFAM are trading names of ECM Asset Management Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority This document may be distributed only to persons permitted to receive it under applicable law and may not be distributed or passed to any person in any jurisdiction in which such distribution would violate any applicable law. This document is: This document may not be distributed other than: (1) within the USA, to investors that are Accredited Investors within the meaning of Regulation D under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933; and (2) outside the USA, to non-US persons in offshore transactions in reliance on Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. • issued by ECM for information only; • not investment advice; • confidential and should not be disclosed other than to your professional advisers; and • directed at persons (“Investment Professionals”) having professional experience in matters relating to investments, and any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with such persons. If you are not an Investment Professional you should not read this document or participate in any meeting or other communication relating to it. 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Please note that: (1) any discussion of tax matters contained in this document (including any attachments) cannot be used by you for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties; (2) this document was written to support the promotion or marketing of the matters addressed herein; and (3) you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor. • Investments offered in the U.S. by Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC. and ECM Asset Management Limited are affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. • NOT FDIC INSURED - NO BANK GUARANTEE - MAY LOSE VALUE PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ECM is authorised by the Financial Services Board of South Africa as a Financial Service Provider. 228404 103114 Sources: Author photographs: MeltingPot Pictures ECM Credit Market Summary 11
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