T W A he

The Week Ahead
November 10-14, 2014
Poloz’s Christmas Wish List
by Avery Shenfeld
Economics
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
[email protected]
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
[email protected]
Peter Buchanan
(416) 594-7354
[email protected]
Warren Lovely
(416) 594-8041
[email protected]
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
[email protected]
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
[email protected]
“We’ll need to see
loonie weakness
that doesn’t simply
capture poor trade
prospects”
http://research.
cibcwm.com/res/Eco/
EcoResearch.html
Today’s jobs data, if confirmed in upcoming
surveys, took a big step towards fulfilling
one of the two items on Bank of Canada
Governor Poloz’s Christmas wish list: a
healthier labour market. Indeed, the 6.5%
jobless rate is only three ticks above our
estimate of full employment. One of the
remaining sore spots, the fact that total
hours worked are little changed since March,
is contradicted in the separate survey of
employers which didn’t see the same plunge
in April. But his second wish — an economy
led by trade and capital spending — might
be challenged by the recently weaker news
on the global economy and, for now, a
depressed price for oil.
Export growth isn’t just about global
conditions, it’s also about Canada’s market
share, which has been sliding in the three
quarters of our exports that aren’t energy
products. Since that was tied to plant
closures during a period of Canadian dollar
overvaluation, a weaker C$ would be one
route to reversing that trend. While the
loonie is down 10% in a little over a year,
much of the recent weakness is of the wrong
colour. Rather than an exogenous move in
favour of the US$ that would improve our
exports, it’s been tied to a plunge in oil prices
and the resulting expectations for weaker
Canadian trade balances ahead.
So to deliver the Bank of Canada’s second
gift, we’ll need to see loonie weakness that
doesn’t simply capture poor trade prospects,
but an independent move that helps improve
those trade fortunes. Alternatively, we could
see a steady Canadian dollar alongside a
recovery in oil prices that would accomplish
the same feat.
There are several routes to a return to higher
oil prices over the coming few quarters.
For one, global demand might not be as
weak as the market now fears. Recent
production volumes from the likes of Libya,
Iraq and Russia could be vulnerable given
geopolitical issues in all three. The Saudi’s
can’t permanently shutter US shale oil by
temporarily depressing prices, and will be
motivated, if not yet at the upcoming OPEC
meeting, to ease off on their volumes if low
prices persist.
But would firmer oil prices also bring a
stronger C$ that dents Canada’s non-energy
exports? That depends a lot on the other
key determinants for the loonie — including
non-energy resource prices and Canada-US
interest rate spreads. Using the sensitivities
estimated in an error correction model for
the C$, we find that by allowing the Fed to
take its overnight rate up 100 bps before
moving its own policy rate, the Bank of
Canada could roughly offset the impact of a
20% rebound in crude oil (Chart).
Today’s jobs data could move up the clock
for the first Bank of Canada hike, but US
jobs figures are doing the same stateside,
and the Bank’s push for export led growth
still tilts the odds that it will let the Fed move
first.
C$: Tighter Spreads Offset Oil Rebound
3
% ch in C $/US$
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
20% rise in oil prices
100 bps tighter C da-US
bills yields
Note: CIBC, based on Issa, Lafrance, Murray, BOC (2005)
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
1.3%
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
Speaker: 2:50 PM Carolyn Wilkins (Sr. Deputy Gov.)
8:30 AM
MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS M/M
(Sep) (M)
Friday
November 14
(Sep) (L)
NEW HOUSING PRICES M/M
Thursday
November 13
Speaker: 11:10 AM Lawrence Schembri (Deputy Gov.)
CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Feb '15 - Feb '16) - $0.5B
AUCTION: 30-YR CANADAS $1.4B
201K
Wednesday
November 12
(Oct) (M)
CIBC
Remembrance Day (Bond Market Closed)
HOUSING STARTS SAAR
CANADA
Tuesday
November 11
Monday
November 10
`
1.1%
200K
-3.3%
0.3%
197K
Prior
(Sep)
10:00 AM
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M
(Oct)
(Oct)
(Nov P)
(Sep)
9:55 AM
MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
10:00 AM
BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M
(Oct)
2:00 PM
TREASURY BUDGET
8:30 AM
RETAIL SALES M/M
RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M
(Nov 1)
(Nov 8)
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
Speaker: 12:00 PM Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)
Speaker: 3:00 PM Charles I. Plosser (Philadelphia)
AUCTION: 30-YR TREASURIES $16B
(Nov 7)
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $36B (prev)
AUCTION: 1-YR TREASURIES $25B
AUCTION: 10-YR TREASURIES $24B
Speaker: 5:10 PM Eric Rosengren (Boston)
Veteran's Day (Treasury Markets Closed)
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $28B
AUCTION: 3-YR TREASURIES $26B
UNITED STATES
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(L)
(L)
(H)
(L)
(L)
Speaker: 9:10 AM James Bullard (St Louis)
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
Consensus
0.3%
0.3%
CIBC
0.2%
87.5
0.3%
0.2%
-$111.7B
2320K
280K
0.2%
Consensus
0.2%
86.9
-0.3%
-0.2%
$105.8B
2348K
278K
0.7%
-2.6%
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Andrew Grantham and Nick Exarhos
Following an encouraging week for bulls in Canada, next week should see further momentum
in housing starts data released on Monday, where our 201K call is roughly in line with the
street. Manufacturing data released on Friday will see the sector close out the third quarter
with 1.3% gain in shipments. That’s not far from the consensus view, and a similar gain for
volumes would mean that real output is benefitting from the loonie’s diminished value.
In the US, it’s a slow start to the week for economic data. Initial claims will continue to be
viewed for signs of strength in the labour market. But we’ll have to wait until Friday for the
main event of the week – October’s retail sales. Following a disappointing end to Q3, we’re
looking for a rebound, even with the headline growth rate restrained by lower gasoline
prices.
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
Canadian Factory Shipments
Manufacturing Shipments—September
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527
Manufacturing Shpts, m/m
CIBC
1.3%
Mkt Prior
Sep-12
1.1% -3.3%
%
%
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Month/Month (L)
Mar-14
Sep-14F
Year/Year (R)
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Forecast Implications—A cheaper loonie is helping
support external demand for Canadian products, with
goods volume exports up an annualized 10.5% in Q3.
More time might be needed to see a meaningful turn in
overall capital spending, however, with the recent slump
in oil prices likely dampening some enthusiasm for oil
patch investment.
The unusual pattern to summer auto sector retooling
this year created some noise in the monthly surveys of
manufacturing output. But by September those effects
will have dissipated, and the continued momentum in
car lot spending both here and across the border will help
give a lift to related Canadian manufacturing.
External demand for some other consumer goods, along
with metal products, should push factory production
higher. A cheaper loonie is helping make Canadian
products more competitive, and is raising C$ prices for
some non-resource goods.
Market Impact—We aren’t very different from the
consensus, and wouldn’t as a result expect much market
reaction.
A gain somewhere in that vicinity for volumes would
mean that real manufacturing output in Q3 would have
been up by around 2% over the prior quarter.
Other Canadian Releases:
Housing Starts—October
(Monday, 8:15 a.m.)
own levels in the near-term. October’s figure will likely
to come in at 201K, and the plethora of projects already
underway should support the building sector over the
next couple of quarters.
Residential building permits (units) gained 9.4% in
September, taking their six-month average level to around
200K. That choppy but flattish trend in residential building
intentions should support housing starts at around their
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
2
Retail Sales—October
%
US Retail Sales
%
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
8
6
1
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
4
0
2
Retail Sales
Retail Sales – ex auto
CIBC
0.3%
0.3%
-1
Mkt Prior
0.3% -0.3%
0.2% -0.2%
0
Oct-13
Feb-14
m/m % chg. (L)
Jun-14
Oct-14F
y/y % chg. (R)
Forecast Implications—Digging beneath the modest
headline gain, consumer spending should appear to
be on a slightly firmer footing at the start of Q4, and
we expect spending over the quarter as a whole to be
stronger than the 1.8% pace recorded in Q3.
US consumers kept their wallets in their pockets during
September, resulting in a pretty broad-based decline in
retail spending. The rebound we expect to see in October
will likely look pretty modest at first blush, but that’s
because the nominal headline figure will be weighed
down by a big reduction in gasoline prices.
Market Impact—We are in line with the current
consensus for headline sales, but an upside surprise on
the core retail measure could be a positive for related
equities and the US$, while weighing on fixed income.
Digging a little deeper should reveal a more positive result.
Electronics sales—the only real bright spot in September
—should continue to be supported as households snap
up a popular new phone. And the savings consumers
continue to make at the pumps should begin to show
up in higher spending on other goods as well. A 0.6%
rebound in core retailing (excluding autos, gasoline,
building materials and restaurants) would be double the
0.3% advance we expect for headline sales.
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
Equity Insights
Peter Buchanan
Earnings Results Confirm US and UK Strength
Hotter Growth Brings Cheer to US and UK Boardrooms
The US and UK have been leading the recovery in the
industrialized countries, a fact confirmed by the latest
earnings reports. No less than 83% of large listed
companies in the UK have topped the street so far in
Q3, with a majority also outperforming on sales. Even
allowing for the consensus’ innate conservatism, the stats
stateside have also shone, with four fifths of S&P reporters
topping analysts’ expectations. That’s the highest level in
four years. Today’s further solid job gain heightens the
odds of the Fed tightening next spring. While that’s earlier
than the street expects, decent earnings momentum and
an improving economy should still create modest upside
for stocks.
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
% of components beating EPS consensus in Q3
FTSE 100
S&P 500
Euro Stoxx Nikkei 225
50
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
Non-Resource Earnings Driving Q3 EPS
Stronger Non-Resource Earnings Help Offset Commodity
Slowdown
With two thirds of Composite members having reported,
the building blocks for another TSX reporting season are
falling into place, and the picture, as in the US, is looking
better than analysis had earlier envisioned. The “blended
consensus” as of Friday was telegraphing a 14% rise
yr/yr, a touch firmer than in Q2 and about 2%-pts above
expectations three weeks ago. Helping to fill the slack
from weaker resource earnings, profits in a number of
other sectors appear to be showing more firepower. That’s
a sign the BoC’s efforts to tip the C$ lower are starting
to help bottom lines. If that continues, Mr. Poloz and
company may not have to wait that long to see factory
sector investment pick up.
18
16
14
12
10
TSX C omposite, y/y % ch
8
6
4
2
0
14:Q2
14:Q3
Resource Earnings (Energy & Material)
Non-Resource Earnings
Miners Could Rally If Metals Prices
Don’t Cave Further
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
QE is dead, long live QE. Fears over global growth savaged
industrial metals prices as the summer waned, but central
bankers have lent a modest degree of support lately.
Acting just two days after the Fed wrote the epitaph for
QE, the BOJ unveiled an aggressive expansion of its asset
buying program. That plus softer core inflation data puts
more pressure on the ECB to scale up its so far timid
foray into the QE waters with outright, Fed-style, bond
purchases. TSX diversified metal stocks have sold off
much more steeply than base metals prices themselves.
Investors appear primed for still worse news ahead. Even
if metals prices just hold their own thanks to a healthier
US economy and monetary stimulus elsewhere, producers’
shares could consequently enjoy a relief rally.
Base Metals Stocks Have Fallen Far More Than Prices
Ratio of TSX Diversified Mining Industry to
Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index
180
160
140
120
100
stocks "cheapest" relative
to prices in half a decade
80
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
60
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham and Nick Exarhos
Why BoC Has Shrugged Off Inflation
Small Number of Areas Contributing to Inflation Overshoot (L);
More Areas Still Seeing Less Than 2% Increases (R)
Weighted Proportion of
Core CPI With Inflation
70%
Above 2%
Contribution to Sept Core
CPI Y/Y % Chg
2.50
C ommunication
(+0.35%-pts)
2.00
60%
50%
40%
1.50
Meat
(+0.3%-pts)
30%
20%
1.00
10%
Remainder
(+1.4%-pts)
Mar-14
Jan-13
Nov-11
Jul-09
Sep-10
0.00
May-08
0%
Jan-06
0.50
Mar-07
Take a static view of the US and Canadian economies,
and you’d be excused to think that Governor Poloz
and co. were closer to raising interest rates. If the same
methodology were used, the unemployment rates would
be almost identical. Meanwhile core CPI is marginally
above target in Canada, but core PCE is ½% below the
Fed’s 2% goal. However, the BoC believes that much of
the inflation overshot in Canada is transitory. Meat and
communications—two areas where price trends aren’t
likely to persist—are contributing significantly to the
overshoot. But digging deeper, there are still fewer sectors
experiencing 2%-plus inflation than has been typical. So
look for the BoC to maintain a neutral stance, despite
today’s employment surprise.
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Petroleum and Non-Petroleum Deficits Diverge
Catching the Dutch Disease?
Trade Balance ($ bn)
0
A glance at last week’s US trade figures and you’d be
excused to think that the “Dutch Disease” was spreading
south of the border. While the shale revolution has limited
the US’s reliance on imported oil, the non-petroleum
deficit is plumbing the depths. However, that may not
necessarily be a reflection that US manufacturers are
suffering from a stronger greenback. Rather, it could
reflect the fact that US growth and demand is outpacing
that elsewhere in the world. As such, it shouldn’t be an
obstacle against further US$ strength.
Petroleum
-10
Ex-Petroleum
-20
-30
-40
-50
The Growing Monetary Arrow
Sep-14
May-13
Jan-12
Sep-10
May-09
Jan-08
Sep-06
May-05
Jan-04
Sep-02
May-01
Jan-00
-60
Source: BEA, CIBC
Japanese policymakers reached back into their quiver
last week, and aimed higher. Now, their target is annual
monetary base growth of JPY80 tn, a JPY10 tn increase.
And chances are skewed toward more skyward arrows, a
likelihood expressed by LIBOR spreads which have made
carry trades funded with the yen even more attractive.
Although BoJ bond buying is insensitive to yield, the
Government Pension Investment Fund, with its burden
of providing returns for an aging population, isn’t. It’s no
surprise then, that it cut its allocation to bonds to 35%
from 60%, with more weight now on stocks. Thus, the
record JPY1.2 tn in government bond outflows in Q2 may
not stand for long. Sharper outflows and monetary action
will keep the yen on the back foot.
Cheap Yen Funding (L); Record Pension Bond Outflows in Q2 (R)
USD minus JPY 6-month
LIBOR (bps)
17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
13Q1
13Q2
13Q3
13Q4
14Q1
14Q2
-2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Gov't Bond Pension Flows
(JPY tn)
Source: Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
November/December 2014
MONDAY
TUESDAY
3
WEDNESDAY
4
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
JUL
2,009
2,401
AUG
-464
2,597
SEP
710
3,031
THURSDAY
5
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGE
LEVEL
AUG
0.148
75.6
SEP
-1.927
73.7
OCT
0.225
73.9
FRIDAY
6
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
JUL
17.3
5.6
AUG
-15.5
-41.1
SEP
6.1
23.9
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
10
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
AUG
196
64
SEP
197
62
OCT
17
11
12
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
REMEMBRANCE DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Bond Market Closed)
18
19
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
JUL 2.5 -1.9
4.6
5.2
AUG 4.3
3.7
2.3 10.3
SEP
24
13
20
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
25
27
26
BALANCE OF
INT’L PAYMENTS
8:30 AM
CURR. ACCT. BAL.
$BN(QR) $BN(AR)
14:Q1
-12.0
-48.1
14:Q2
-11.9
-47.5
14:Q3
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
M
Y
JUL
-0.1
5.0
AUG
-0.3
4.4
SEP
Payroll employment,
Earnings & Hours
8:30 AM
7
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATE EARN
M
Y
%
Y
AUG -0.1 0.5
7.0 2.3
SEP 0.4 0.8
6.8 2.1
OCT 0.2 1.0
6.5 1.9
14
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
JUL
2.9
8.5
AUG
-3.3
6.1
SEP
CONSUMER
PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
AUG
0.0
SEP
0.1
OCT
21
Y
2.1
2.0
28
NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
8:30 AM
REAL
PRICE
GDP DEFLATOR
%ch AR
%ch AR
14:Q1
0.9
5.9
14:Q2
3.1
0.7
14”Q3
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDP IND.PROD.
M
M
JUL
0.0
-0.4
AUG
-0.1
-1.0
SEP
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
AUG
0.3
2.6
SEP
-0.4
2.5
OCT
WAGE SETTLEMENTS
10:00 AM (%)
PVT.
PUB. TOT.
AUG
2.4
1.5
2.1
SEP
1.7
1.3
1.4
OCT
1
2
4
3
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGE
LEVEL
SEP
-1.927
73.7
OCT
0.225
73.9
NOV
Bank of Canada
Interest Rate Announcement
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
5
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATE EARN
M
Y
%
Y
SEP 0.4 0.8
6.8 2.1
OCT 0.2 1.0
6.5 1.9
NOV
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
AUG
-464
2,597
SEP
710
3,031
OCT
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
November/December 2014
MONDAY
TUESDAY
3
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEX
INDEX
AUG
SEP
OCT
59.0
56.6
59.0
58.0
59.5
53.5
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
AUG
17.439
9.9
SEP
16.329
6.4
OCT
16.349
7.0
WEDNESDAY
4
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
JUL
-59.8
19.5 -40.3
AUG
-60.2
20.2 -40.0
SEP
-62.7
19.6 -43.0
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
JUL
10.5
15.7
AUG
-10.0
4.2
SEP
-0.6
1.9
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
VETERAN’S DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Treasury Markets Closed)
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
5
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
30-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
11
10
THURSDAY
18
CAPACITY UTIL/IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
AUG
78.7 -0.2
4.0
SEP
79.3
1.0
4.4
OCT
PPI
8:30 AM M (SA)
AUG
-0.4
SEP
-0.2
OCT
Y (NSA)
2.2
2.1
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
3, 10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
24
25
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION
1
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
AUG
0.957
SEP
1.017
OCT
Y/Y
0.7
1.3
0.9
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
13
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
M
-12.8
6.3
8:30 AM
AUG
SEP
OCT
CPI
M(SA)
-0.2
0.1
56.6
59.0
FOMC Minutes
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
10:00 AM
20
21
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 AM
27
26
PERS. INC
& OUT.
8:30 AM SAVING
INCOME CONS
RATE
M
M
AR
AUG
0.3
0.5
5.4
SEP
0.2
-0.2
5.6
OCT
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
AUG
-18.3
8.7
SEP
-1.3
3.3
OCT
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
2
3
4
NON-FARM
PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM Q/Q (AR)
Y/Y
14:Q2 (R)
2.9
1.3
14:Q3 (P)
2.0
0.9
14:Q3 (R)
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
30-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
Beige Book
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
28
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
THANKSGIVING DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
10:00 AM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
Y
5.0
4.3
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
5-Yr NOTE AUCTION
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
SEP
16.329
6.4
OCT
16.349
7.0
NOV
14
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
59.5
53.5
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
AUG
0.6
SEP
-0.3
OCT
Y (NSA)
1.7
1.7
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
SEP
OCT
NOV
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEX
INDEX
7
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON-
CIV
AVG
FARM UNEMP
HRLY
PAYROLL
RATE EARN
(000s) M
%
Y
AUG
203
6.1
2.5
SEP
256
5.9
2.2
OCT
214
5.8
2.2
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
19
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDP DEFLATOR
14:Q2(F)
4.6
2.1
14:Q3(A)
3.5
1.3
14:Q3(P)
6
NON-FARM
PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM Q/Q (AR)
14:Q1 (R)
-4.5
14:Q2 (R)
2.9
14:Q3 (P)
2.0
12
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
17
FRIDAY
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
5
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON-
CIV
AVG
FARM UNEMP
HRLY
PAYROLL
RATE EARN
(000s) M
%
Y
SEP
256
5.9
2.2
OCT
214
5.8
2.2
NOV
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
AUG
-60.2
20.2 -40.0
SEP
-62.7
19.6 -43.0
OCT
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
AUG
-10.0
4.2
SEP
-0.6
1.9
OCT
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—November 10-14, 2014
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