Bank Negara Indonesia - Danareksa Sekuritas Online Trading
Transcription
Bank Negara Indonesia - Danareksa Sekuritas Online Trading
Friday, 19 December 2014 BANKING/COMPANY UPDATE Bank Negara Indonesia BUY Target Price, IDR 6,750 Upside 12.9% BBNI IJ/BBNI.JK Given the closer gap between BBNI and big banks, we believe that BBNI deserves a re-rating in its valuation. Furthermore, post 22.5% 3-year CAGR growth, loans 5,975 already grew at a softer rate of 14.1% YoY in September 2014 with slower economic 18,462 growth in 3Q14 at 5.01%. Thus, we project loans will grow at more sustainable figure of 15.1-15.2% in 2015-16F. Apart from that, going forward margin should slightly 110,311 normalize. In 9M14, NIM stood at 6.1% despite higher blended CoF of 3.3%. 8,783 Nonetheless, NIM will fall to 5.7% in FY15-16F due to stable blended CoF at 2.9%. We 12.8 upgrade our target price to IDR6,750 derived from DBV model with lower discount at 25% from previously 30% as BBNI deserves a re-rating. This target price implies IDR 6,300 PBV 2.0-1.7x for 2015-16F. BUY maintained. Last Price, IDR No. of shares (mn) Market Cap, Rp bn (US$ mn) 3M T/O, US$mn Last Recommendation 05-Sep-14 25-Jul-14 09-May-14 BUY BUY BUY IDR 5,400 IDR 5,400 BBNI relative to JCI Index BBNI (LHS) Closing the gap Relative to JCI Index (RHS) % Rp 30 6,000 20 5,000 10 Normalized loans growth Following 22.5% 3-year CAGR loans growth, BBNI has opted to slow its loans growth in the current macroeconomic landscape marked by tighter liquidity conditions. As a result, in September 2014, loans only grew 14.1% YoY. In addition, BI’s LTV regulation led to much slower consumer loans growth of only 3.3% YoY, with mortgages still dominating (they accounted for 62.8% of the total consumer loans as of September 2014). All in all, we forecast loans growth of a more sustainable 15.1-15.2% in 2015-16F with manageable gross NPLs at 2.3% as of December 2015, then slightly down to 2.2% as of December 2016F. 4,000 0 12/18/14 11/20/14 9/25/14 10/23/14 8/28/14 7/3/14 7/31/14 6/5/14 5/8/14 4/10/14 3/13/14 2/13/14 1/16/14 -10 12/19/13 3,000 Market Recommendation BUY 19 HOLD SELL Stable margin Meanwhile, Net Interest Margin (NIM) also stable at 6.1% in 9M14 from 6.2% in 9M13 despite a higher blended CoF (up 90 bps to 3.3% in 9M14). This achievement was backed by the management’s policy to cherry pick special TD rates for selected customers and re-price policy on its loan interest rate by around 50-75 bps in general. Nonetheless, we forecast NIM will slightly fall to 5.7% in FY15F and flat at that figure in FY16F as we believe that blended CoF will stay at 2.9% for FY15-16F due to flat BI rate outlook as well as fed rate increase in 2015. 12 2 Danareksa vs Consensus Target price, IDR EPS 2014F, IDR PBV 2014F, x Our 6,750 533 2.0 Cons 6,356 538 2.0 Eka Savitri (62-21) 2955 5825 [email protected] Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg. www.danareksa.com % Diff 6.2 -0.9 0.0 BUY, TP of IDR6,750 With the normalized loans growth and stable margins as well as the appreciation on BBNI’s stock (YtD up by 50.0%) we believe BBNI deserves a re-rating hence lower gap with big banks. Using the Deposit Base Valuation (DBV) model with a 13.7% cost of equity, 6.0% terminal growth rate and lower discount rate of 25% from previously 30%, we arrive at a new Target Price of IDR6,750. Our Target Price translates into PBV 2015-16F of 2.0-1.7x. Maintain BUY. Net interest income, IDR bn PPOP, IDR bn PBT, IDR bn Net income, IDR bn EPS, IDR EPS growth, % Dividend yield, % ROE, % PBV, x PER, x BVPS, IDR 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 15,459 11,166 8,900 7,046 378 21 1.9 17.4 2.6 15.8 2,331 19,058 13,926 11,278 9,054 486 29 2.4 19.9 2.3 12.3 2,552 20,959 15,386 12,432 9,942 533 10 2.2 19.4 2.0 11.2 2,952 22,960 16,878 13,732 10,981 589 10 2.5 18.6 1.8 10.1 3,394 25,821 19,059 15,503 12,397 665 13 2.2 18.2 1.5 9.0 3,926 See important disclosure on the back of this report 19 Desember 2014 Bank Negara Indonesia Normalized loans growth Following 22.5% 3-year CAGR loans growth, BBNI has opted to slow its loans growth in the current macroeconomic landscape marked by tighter liquidity conditions. As a result, in September 2014, loans only grew 14.1% YoY. However, in January until September 2014 period shows higher total approval rate of 66.3% compared to the same period last year of 63.0%, concentrating in eight targeted sectors. Both figures can act as proxies for softer loans demand throughout 16 regions in Indonesia divided by BNI. In addition, BI’s LTV regulation led to much slower consumer loans growth of only 3.3% YoY, with mortgages still dominates the consumer loans portfolio (accounted for 62.8% of the total consumer loans as of September 2014). While the mortgage seems flat, credit card subsegment shows higher contribution from only 10.5% as of September 2013 to 11.4% as of September 2014 supported by offering premium credit card brand to high net worth individuals. All in all, we forecast loans growth of a more sustainable 15.1-15.2% in 2015-16F with manageable gross NPL at 2.3% as of December 2015, then slightly down to 2.2% as of December 2016F. We believe these forecast figures are reasonable backed by ample liquidity position with modified LDR of 87.2% and 88.1% as of December 2015-16F. Exhibit 1. Moderate loans growth WC (LHS) Others (LHS) IDR tn Consumer (LHS) Growth (RHS) Investment (LHS) % 30 400 350 24.9 26.3 25 300 22.8 250 20 19.9 200 14.6 12.8 15.1 14.1 150 15.2 15 10 100 7.9 50 5 0 0 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Sep 14 Dec 14F Dec 15F Dec 16F Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 2. with ample liquidity position % LDR Mod. LDR 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Sep 14 Dec 14F Dec 15F Dec 16F Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas 2 19 Desember 2014 Bank Negara Indonesia Stable Margin Meanwhile, Net Interest Margin (NIM) stable at 6.1% in 9M14 despite a higher blended CoF (up 90 bps to 3.3% in 9M14). This achievement was backed by the management’s policy to cherry pick special TD rates for selected customers and re-price policy on its loan interest rate by around 50-75 bps in general. As of September 2014, the CASA proportion still can be managed at 62.0% of total customer deposits. Nonetheless, we forecast NIM will slightly fall to 5.7% in FY15F and flat at that figure in FY16F as we believe that blended CoF will stay at 2.9% for FY15-16F due to the manageable deposits structure with moderate growth figure of 13.5% for 2015F also CASA proportion above 60.0% level. Exhibit 3. Stable NIM outlook NIM % CoF 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9M14 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas BUY, TP of IDR6,750 Given the normalized loans growth with stable margins as well as the appreciation on BBNI’s stock (YtD up by 50.0%) should indicated that the stock’s deserves a re-rating. Using the Deposit Base Valuation (DBV) model with a 13.7% cost of equity, 6.0% terminal growth rate and lower discount rate of 25% (previously 30%), we arrive at a new Target Price of IDR6,750. Our Target Price translates into PBV 2015-16F of 2.0-1.7x. BUY maintained. Exhibit 4. Current rolling PBV already above its average x 2.4 +1 std dev 1.9x 2.0 1.6 1.2 Average 1.5x 0.8 -1 std dev 1.1x 0.4 Dec-14 Jul-14 Feb-14 Sep-13 Mar-13 Oct-12 May-12 Dec-11 Jun-11 Jan-11 Aug-10 Mar-10 Oct-09 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Sep-07 Apr-07 Jun-06 Nov-06 Dec-05 0.0 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas 3 19 Desember 2014 Bank Negara Indonesia Exhibit 5. Current rolling PE at lower range x 40 35 30 25 +1 std dev 20.2x 20 Average 12.7x 15 10 5 -1 std dev 5.0x Dec-14 Jul-14 Feb-14 Sep-13 Mar-13 Oct-12 May-12 Dec-11 Jun-11 Jan-11 Mar-10 Aug-10 Oct-09 Dec-08 May-09 Jul-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jun-06 Dec-05 0 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 6. PBV/ROE matrix % 30 BBRI BBCA 25 BBNI 20 BBTN 15 BBKP BJTM BJBR BMRI PNBN BTPN BNGA 10 BDMN 5 x 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas 4 19 Desember 2014 Bank Negara Indonesia Exhibit 7. Balance sheet (IDR bn) Cash Placement BI and banks Marketable securities Government bond Net loan Fixed assets - net Others Total assets Demand deposit Saving deposit Time deposit Deposit from customers Deposit from other banks Securities issued Borrowings Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority Equity Earning assets Interest bearing liabilities 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 7,969 60,880 9,801 38,561 193,835 4,592 17,666 333,304 73,366 100,083 84,212 257,661 3,245 4,769 8,750 15,354 289,778 52 43,473 290,438 277,150 10,090 50,705 11,966 41,432 243,758 5,514 23,191 386,655 88,183 111,800 91,907 291,890 3,185 6,037 18,951 18,909 338,971 83 47,600 337,125 321,822 11,020 55,579 13,162 43,545 279,176 5,481 24,777 432,740 91,775 115,788 121,425 328,988 2,496 5,918 19,898 20,297 377,597 87 55,056 380,014 359,771 12,391 59,081 12,088 46,710 321,254 5,389 28,110 485,023 107,221 134,934 131,186 373,342 2,321 5,799 17,908 22,269 421,639 92 63,292 427,049 402,046 13,301 66,784 12,901 50,093 370,237 5,251 29,121 547,687 128,490 159,128 138,799 426,417 2,403 5,683 16,117 23,759 474,380 96 73,210 484,255 453,517 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 22,705 7,246 15,459 17 3,155 5,290 8,446 23,905 15 3,921 5,578 3,241 12,739 14 11,166 2,525 8,641 19 259 8,900 19 1,851 2 7,046 21 18,649 378 26,451 7,392 19,058 23 4,000 5,441 9,441 28,499 19 4,540 6,084 3,949 14,573 14 13,926 2,708 11,219 30 59 11,278 27 2,220 4 9,054 29 18,649 486 30,798 9,839 20,959 10 4,556 5,793 10,349 31,308 10 5,194 6,820 3,908 15,922 9 15,386 3,150 12,235 9 197 12,432 10 2,486 4 9,942 10 18,649 533 33,827 10,867 22,960 10 5,154 6,281 11,435 34,396 10 5,714 7,417 4,386 17,518 10 16,878 3,334 13,543 11 189 13,732 10 2,746 4 10,981 10 18,649 589 38,215 12,394 25,821 12 5,846 7,144 12,990 38,811 13 6,464 8,243 5,045 19,752 13 19,059 3,712 15,347 13 156 15,503 13 3,101 5 12,397 13 18,649 665 Source: Comnpany, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 8. Profit and loss (IDR bn) Interest income Interest expense Net interest income % yoy growth Fee based income Other opr. inc. Non interest income Total operating income % yoy growth G&A exp. Personnel exp. Other opr. exp. Total operating expense % yoy growth Pre-provisioning profit Provision Operating profit % yoy growth Other inc./exp. Profit before tax % yoy growth Tax Minority interest Net profit % yoy growth No of share, mn EPS Source: Comnpany, Danareksa Sekuritas 5 19 Desember 2014 Bank Negara Indonesia Exhibit 9. Selected ratios (%) 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F NIM Fee based/total income BOPO CIR ROAE ROAA CAR 5.6 13.2 72.3 53.3 17.4 2.2 16.6 6.1 14.0 68.7 51.1 19.9 2.5 14.6 5.8 14.6 70.3 50.9 19.4 2.4 15.2 5.7 15.0 70.1 50.9 18.6 2.4 15.5 5.7 15.1 70.0 50.9 18.2 2.4 15.9 Avg yield on earning assets Loans/earning assets Earning assets/total asset Loan growth Avg cost of fund Deposit/int bearing liab. Deposit growth Int bearing liab./total asset 8.2 66.7 87.1 22.8 2.8 93.0 11.4 83.2 8.4 72.3 87.2 24.9 2.5 90.7 13.3 83.2 8.6 73.5 87.8 14.6 2.9 91.4 12.7 83.1 8.4 75.2 88.0 15.1 2.9 92.9 13.5 82.9 8.4 76.5 88.4 15.2 2.9 94.0 14.2 82.8 2.8 122.5 77.9 76.5 2.2 126.9 85.9 84.1 2.3 122.2 87.3 85.8 2.3 124.2 88.5 87.2 2.2 127.3 89.3 88.1 NPL - gross Coverage LDR Mod. LDR Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas 6 19 Desember 2014 Bank Negara Indonesia DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. 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