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Column: Let’s pause FRBM for a while | The Financial Express
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Fe Columnist
Column: Let’s pause FRBM for a while
By: Madan Sabnavis (http://www.financialexpress.com/author/madan­sabnavis/) | January 6, 2015 11:18 pm
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Other Articles
The European economies and the Indian economy do not
Column: SpiceJet
look similar as the former is still in the stage of stagnation
lessons for aviation
while ours is on the verge of recovery. But a common
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/fe­
columnist/column­
theme that has pervaded the policy options exercised
spicejet­lessons­for­
across these two dissimilar geographies has been fiscal
aviation/26797/)
IN THE NEWS
prudence. The euro region perforce has to control
Letters to the editor:
government spending and rein in the fiscal deficit as it was
Behind falling inflation
the cause of the Greek crisis to begin with.
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/fe­
columnist/letters­to­the­
editor­behind­falling­
This is also a condition put by the ECB when invoking its
inflation/26795/)
own version of QE. The Indian government has chosen to
Mapping Transit
do its own tapering in the last three years after the pump(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/fe­
priming programme that was undertaken following the
columnist/mapping­
financial crisis to ensure that growth remained buoyant.
transit/26794/)
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closer­than­ever­to­finding­earths­twin/26926/)
NASA closer than ever to finding Earth's
'twin'
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closer­than­ever­to­finding­earths­
twin/26926/)
The general tone at North Block on this issue appears to
have changed, and rightly so.
Government expenditure is a very useful tool for reviving an economy especially
when there is a demand-side problem. Today, there is absence of demand for
goods and services in India as consumption is down because households are not
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/science/how­
to­make­a­new­earth­recipe­found/26553/)
How to make a new earth; recipe found
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/science/how­
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spending; industry is not investing as capacities are still underutilised (71% as per
the latest RBI data) and the government is loath to spend as the Fiscal
Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) norms are held sacrosanct. Such
spending was applauded after 2008 when the government ran a higher deficit; but
once we slowed the flow from this tap, growth, too, slowed down. Critics blamed
the government for spending too much by giving away money through social
http://www.financialexpress.com/article/fe­columnist/column­lets­pause­frbm­for­a­while/26796/
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/science/record­
breaking­flare­from­milky­ways­black­hole­detected/26701/)
Record­breaking flare from Milky Way's
black hole detected
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/science/record
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detected/26701/)
1/5
1/7/2015
Column: Let’s pause FRBM for a while | The Financial Express
programmes (the MGNREGA spent only R30,000 crore, which is 0.3% of GDP)
which caused high inflation (one minister even said that inflation was high
because the poor were eating more).
The policy of following the FRBM norms has been pursued assiduously and has
meant that the government had to cut back on expenditure to control the deficit
when revenues did not increase—especially because revenue is dependent on the
state of the economy and growth, over which the government has little control. In
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/health/eating­
whole­grains­may­help­you­live­longer­study/26566/)
Eating whole grains may help you live
longer: Study
(http://www.financialexpress.com/article/lifestyle/health/eating
whole­grains­may­help­you­live­longer­
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fact, John Maynard Keynes, the renowned economist, would have said that higher
government spending would have created jobs and growth through the multiplier,
and investment would have increased through the accelerator (the famous
Harrod-Domar model). And this was notwithstanding the fact that the money was
spent on frivolous activities like digging up holes to fill them up, which the
MGNREGA is almost all about. In fact, the higher incomes of rural workers due to
MGNREGA had actually made them spend more on manufactured products, which
added to consumer demand in good times. Now, this has stopped as people spend
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more on food and have less to spend on manufactured goods which are indicated
in the very low growth in production of consumer durable goods for the last 3
years with growth in FY15 being negative.
The government’s role is important here because we are all waiting for
consumption or investment to increase, which is not happening. Incremental pickup will take place but then we have to wait for the cycle to turn gradually and that
can take 2-3 years, during which several things can change, viz., oil prices could
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shoots­for­launch­to­station­rocket­landing­on­barge/26518/)
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move up, interest rates could increase, the exchange rate can come under
pressure and so on. If a big push is required then it has to come from the
government and this is why there is a call for such expenditure on infrastructure.
Curiously, the same voices which are asking for more privatisation (especially of
the public sector banks) and the government moving away from economic activity
as it is considered inefficient are now asking for more government activity in the
productive sphere. There is an anomaly here which has come up more out of
desperation. The Union ministry of finance, in the mid-term Economic Review,
has indicated that there is a strong case for moving away from FRBM targets and
being more accommodative of expenditure as it can trigger a virtuous cycle of
Business buzz
Financial Express
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Audio equipment maker Monster sues
Apple Inc’s Beats Electronics over
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Audio equipment maker Monster LLC has sued
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growth and investment. The passage of the land laws through an ordinance could
be a precursor for such a move which will be beneficial for the economy. The
challenge really is to ensure that it goes in the required direction as all money is
fungible and it is hard to finally say which part of the money goes for what
purpose.
The way it works is simple. The government is a major consumer of cement,
paper, steel, machinery and electrical goods. Any infra project will need more of
Crowdynews
all these products, and with the land laws being cleared, projects can take off in
the PPP mode as well as through public sector initiatives. This will lead to higher
employment and demand for these back-end products primarily produced by the
private sector. Such demand will revive these companies and create more demand
for labour as well as other inputs that go into the manufacture of, say, steel (iron,
coal, power, etc).All this will add to the virtuous cycle.
Economists like Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman have always argued that
policies relating to fiscal stringency should be used in moderation and have to be
geared as per the overall economic conditions. The euro crisis is mainly due to the
governments cutting back on spending even while keeping interest rates low. This
has not helped. Japan’s case, however, does provide a counter-view, that
government spending too may not necessarily help.
For India, the government should start spending but to make sure that the
HOROSCOPE: BY PETER VIDAL
environment is enabling, interest rates have to be lowered, or else the private
sector may not be able to keep pace with the demand. As inflation has come down,
and is likely to be around 5-6%, there may be a strong case for RBI to review the
target of a 4%-rate (with a 2% margin), as the average CPI inflation rate has
http://www.financialexpress.com/article/fe­columnist/column­lets­pause­frbm­for­a­while/26796/
2/5
1/7/2015
Column: Let’s pause FRBM for a while | The Financial Express
seldom gone below 6% on a sustained basis. Anyway, earmarking 0.5% of the
Today ( 07 Jan )This Week ( 04 Jan ­ 10 Jan ) (/astrotype/daily/#sagittarius)
FY16 GDP for project expenditure, which is spent immediately, can be a chance
worth taking as it will definitely help create demand at a time when global
economic conditions are also favourable. Hopefully, we will see such moves on
February 28.
The author is chief economist, CARE Ratings. Views are personal
TAGS: Indian Economy (/tag/indian­economy)
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