Opening Bell - ICICI Direct

Opening Bell
January 23, 2015
Results: UltraTech, EPC Industrie, Wabco,
Colgate; India Eight Infra. industries, China
Manufacturing PMI, US Manufacturing PMI
Index Movement (past one month)
2-Jan
Key Developments
BSE (RHS)
• Cairn India reported its Q3FY15 results with revenues declining
29.9% YoY to | 3504.1 crore, above our estimate of | 3069.5 crore
on account of lower than estimated profit sharing with the
government. PAT during the quarter declined 53.2% YoY to
| 1349.64 crore, marginally below our estimate of | 1356.9 crore
• Biocon’s Q3FY15 revenues grew 8.8% YoY to | 769.2 crore,
marginally above I-direct estimates of | 749.5 crore. EBITDA margins
dropped 406 bps YoY to 20.8% lower than I-direct estimates of 23%
due to unexpected growth in other expenditure.
• Trent Hypermarket, the equally owned joint venture between Tata
Group and UK's Tesco plans to invest | 250 crore to open more
stores in India
• Wipro plans to ramp up its Odisha centre headcount by 4000 from
around 100 currently
• EPC Industrie is expected to report a robust Q3FY15 performance
post a subdued Q2FY15. Sales are expected at | 51.6 crore, up 20%
YoY with EBITDA margins at 6%, up 160 bps YoY
• UltraTech is expected to report 9.7% revenue growth. PAT is
expected at | 421 crore (up 14.1%YoY)
Sensex
Nifty
22-Jan
25000
20-Jan
26000
8000
16-Jan
27000
8200
14-Jan
28000
8400
12-Jan
29000
8600
8-Jan
30000
8800
6-Jan
9000
31-Dec
Markets Yesterday
• Domestic markets ended positive touching a new high buoyed by
buying in blue chips, optimism that the government will continue
with the reform agenda and on reports that the government may
raise the limit on foreign holding of Indian corporate bonds
• US markets ended positive following the European Central Bank’s
President’s announcement of an expanded asset purchase
programme
Today’s Highlights
29-Dec
Market Outlook
The Indian markets are expected to remain positive in today's session
on the back of higher than estimated ECB stimulus. This may keep
global liquidity benign and FII inflows may continue. However, Greece
election outcome on January 25 will also be an important factor.
NSE (LHS)
Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)
29,006 28,889
0.4
5.5
5.5
17.4
8,761
8,730
0.4
5.8
5.8
17.3
Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)
CY13
112,221
-73,385
CY14 YTD CY15 Yesterday Last 5 Days
99,525
4,711
2,065
6,714
-30,570
-2,310
-1,350
-3,594
World Indices – Monthly performance
France
4,553
7.0%
U.K.
6,797
3.3%
Shanghai
3,362
6.9%
Nasdaq
4,750
-0.6%
Germany
10,436
5.8%
Kospi
1,935
-1.1%
NSE
8,761
5.3%
Dow Jones
17,814
-1.4%
BSE
29,006
4.7%
Nikkei
17,474
-1.7%
Nifty Heat Map
United
Spirits
3,549.1
Tata
Motors
566.5
Tata Steel
6.3%
2.7%
403.4
1.6%
Power
Grid
148.4
Grasim
Ind
3,809.4
Indusind
Bank
846.3
Hindalco
Bajaj
Auto
GAIL
HCL Tech
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
143.5
0.2%
2,444.3
-0.1%
431.1
-0.6%
1,665.7
-1.3%
Sun
Pharma
Ultratech
Lupin
Ambuja
Cement
BHEL
M&M
HDFC
Bank
Tata
power
Bank of
Baroda
Tech M.
920.1
3.8%
3,122.5
2.2%
1,503.5
1.3%
249.0
1.0%
284.5
0.7%
1,330.0
0.4%
1,021.3
0.1%
83.3
-0.1%
223.9
-0.8%
2,758.1
-1.4%
DLF
ONGC
Infosys
ACC
JSPL
148.6
3.4%
352.9
2.0%
2,196.5
1.2%
1,558.8
0.9%
153.7
0.6%
ICICI
Bank
369.8
Cairn
India
238.5
SBI
NMDC
PNB
0.4%
0.0%
324.7
-0.5%
137.0
-0.9%
212.8
-1.5%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Axis Bank
Asian
Paints
Coal India
Dr Reddy
L&T
HUL
TCS
ITC
Maruti
NTPC
564.8
3.2%
867.2
1.9%
396.4
1.2%
3,361.3
0.8%
1,663.3
0.5%
944.7
0.3%
2,513.6
0.0%
350.7
-0.6%
3,597.3
-1.0%
140.2
-2.3%
IDFC
Cipla
Wipro
Sesa
Sterlite
BPCL
174.8
2.8%
654.8
1.8%
594.6
1.0%
201.1
0.7%
657.1
0.4%
Bharti
Airtel
370.0
Kotak
Bank
1,387.7
HDFC Ltd
Hero
Moto
RIL
0.3%
0.0%
1,279.7
-0.6%
2,838.9
-1.3%
883.8
-2.5%
Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs
Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
28,558
39,534
49.6
5696.5
28,356
39,684
48.5
5801
0.7
-0.4
2.1
-1.8
5.6
8.3
-13.6
-10.5
5.6
8.3
-13.6
-10.5
61.71
1.14
118.34
61.64
1.14
118.49
0.1
0.0
-0.1
2.2
-6.1
1.2
2.2
-6.1
1.2
60.0
12.6
48.8
35.8
54.5
59.0
12.3
46.8
35.2
54.0
1.5
2.6
4.4
1.7
1.0
16.5
NA
13.0
9.5
7.5
16.3
NA
10.6
11.9
7.0
Sectoral Index
Sector
3,295
18,133
4,482
20,413
3,557
19,255
15-Jan
16-Jan
19-Jan
20-Jan
21-Jan
22-Jan
BSE Cash
NSE Cash
NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)
100000
0
15-Jan
16-Jan
19-Jan
251,234
200000
267,242
300000
290,287
400000
20-Jan
21-Jan
22-Jan
NSE Derivative
Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%)
Close
Previous
Change
% Change
Volume
Auto
19807.2
19666.5
140.7
0.7
1943000
Banks
22804.8
22721.2
83.6
0.4
5218000
BSE Small Cap
11449.5
11422.9
26.6
0.2
65739000
Capital Goods
16794.1
16607.3
186.8
1.1
46460000
Consumer Durables
10295.4
10395.0
-99.5
-1.0
616000
8093.7
8077.7
16.0
0.2
3571000
1340000
FMCG
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
3,488
15,572
Prior Values
5,251.34bln IN
-7.8bln mo
25.96bln $
319.48bln $
5.70%
4.50%
42.82bln $
-4.20%
-7.60%
-34.6bln $
16.86bln $
0.60%
-4.90%
0.00%
2.04%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
191,946
Latest Values
10.1bln mo
25.4bln $
5.30%
4.70%
34.83bln $
3.80%
3.00%
38.6bln $
9.43bln $
5.20%
-7.82%
0.11%
1.57%
7.75%
6.75%
4,136
19,228
Release Date
30-Jan
03~08Dec
15-Jan
23-Jan
28-Nov
30-May
15-Jan
12-Jan
12-Jan
03~08Dec
15-Jan
14-Jan
14-Jan
14-Jan
14-Jan
15-Jan
15-Jan
15-Jan
206,268
Period
Dec
Q3
Dec
w/e
Q2
12M
Dec
Nov
Nov
Q3
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
N/A
N/A
N/A
4,306
21,367
Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)
Key Domestic Economic Indicator
Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
372,000
Key Data Points
Healthcare
15436.9
15181.0
255.9
1.7
IT
11191.1
11141.5
49.6
0.4
621000
Metals
10420.4
10351.0
69.4
0.7
3682000
Mid Cap
10710.2
10702.2
8.0
0.1
113754000
Oil & Gas
9878.3
9954.9
-76.5
-0.8
1811000
Power
2162.3
2157.5
4.8
0.2
50850000
PSU
8357.5
8337.3
20.2
0.2
13422000
Real Estate
1648.7
1639.7
8.9
0.5
11575000
9.0
8.9
Capital Goods
Real Estate
Consumer
Auto
Banks
Healthcare
Mid Cap
IT
Power
BSE Small Cap
FMCG
PSU
-2.2
Oil & Gas
Metals -3.1
-4.0
7.1
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.1
5.8
5.2
4.5
3.5
1.6
-2.0
0.0
2.0
(%)
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Key News for Today
Company/Industry
HCL Tech
News
HCL Tech (HCLT) expects a change in its
pyramid structure over the next couple of years
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
View
The company may rationalise testingrelated staff likely due to redundancy
and could replace the same with domain
experts focusing on newer technologies.
This could alter the pyramid structure
and margin profile over the longer term
Impact
Sensex Chart
Technical Outlook
We said, "Strength sustaining above the
candle to continue existing positive bias..."
The index opened above the previous candle.
Maintaining the positive territory, it traded
volatile but managed to end 117 points or
0.4% higher. The pharma and capital goods
indices outperformed, up 1%+. The broader
indices and A/D ratio ended even.
The action formed a small Bull candle similar
to the previous day. With a higher high-low,
the bias continues to be positive even at new
high levels. With positive global cues, today's
action may open up positive or gap-up.
Watch, however, if the higher levels attract
some profit-booking. If the index is able to
hold the positive zone, it will attract buying on
dips.
Pivot Points
CNX Nifty Technical Picture
Index/Stocks
Close
29006.02
8761.4
1558.80
518.6
47.25
1829.65
128.10
91.95
1241.70
231.05
272.95
63.10
867.15
1181.10
2444.30
223.85
298.70
1468.30
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA
S1
28954.10
8746
1546.45
517.15
47.20
1813.35
126.55
91.00
1240.10
228.20
268.45
62.50
867.20
1179.75
2451.10
220.50
295.50
1454.85
S2
28912.05
8734.2
1538.15
513.3
46.60
1799.95
125.95
90.40
1234.10
226.15
266.10
61.80
860.00
1172.30
2437.80
217.90
293.25
1437.45
R1
29038.15
8769.6
1563.05
524.9
48.35
1832.30
128.70
92.20
1252.05
231.15
273.30
63.20
881.60
1194.65
2477.65
224.15
299.35
1471.85
R2
29080.20
8781.35
1571.35
527.3
48.60
1841.80
129.75
92.85
1258.85
232.60
275.70
63.60
886.15
1202.95
2491.95
225.95
301.25
1480.35
Trend
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
Nifty
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA
Intraday
Short Term
Up
8760
8790-8760
8850-8880
0
0
Up
8380
8380
8900
8438
7771
Advances / Declines
Advances
1333
699
BSE
NSE
Declines
1589
812
Daily Technical Calls
1. Buy Aurobindo Pharma above 1186.00
2. Buy Exide Industries above 192.50
3. Buy Ambuja Cement above 250.50
*All recommendations are of January Future
See Momentum Pick for more details
Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – January 2014
8400
8500
8600
8700
8800
8900
9000
9100
9200
150.0
Intraday Derivative Strategy
103
105
58
64
90
73
70
27
4
88
8
1
0
100.0
Buy YESBAN JAN Fut at 864.00-865.00
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 871
Target 2: 880
Stop Loss: 857
Market Lot: 500
CMP : 858
36
38
87
50.0
0.0
Call
Put
11
6
50.0
100.0
Sell VOLTAS JAN Fut at 250.00-251.00
View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 247.50 Target 2: 244
Stop Loss: 254.50
Market Lot: 1000
CMP : 253
See Daily Derivatives for more details
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Unchanged
111
77
Results/Events Calendar
05
Monday
Japan Manu. PMI
0
0
0
0
12
26
0
0
0
0
0
Tuesday
20
Monday
14
January
Tuesday
21
January
Tuesday
27
Monday
03
Monday
January
Wednesday
28
January
Tuesday
January
Wednesday
04
Tuesday
February
Wednesday
Tata Power
Gujarat Pipavav
Bharti Airtel
Aurobindo Pharma
0
Hero Motocorp
Lupin
PNB, ACC, Shree Cement
0
0
Major Economic Events this week
29
23
January
January
Friday
January
Friday
EPC Industrie, Wabco
Colgate, UltraTech Cement
India Eight Infra. Industries
China Manufacturing PMI
US Manufacturing PMI
30
January
Thursday
January
Friday
Mahindra Lifespace, NTPC
JSW Steel, Sun TV, BOB
Shoppers Stop, PVR
Dabur, Indoco Remedies
Kansai Nerolac
06
February
Thursday
PTC India
0
0
0
0
Friday
Axis bank, Wipro, V-Guard
Reliance Ind., Oberoi Realty
US Ind. Prod. MoM
US Manufacturing Prod
US CPI YoY
Thursday
Dr. Reddy's Lab, Essel Pro.
HDFC, IDFC, Asian Paints
Kansai, Gandhi Sp. Tubes
Ashok Leyland,Gateway Dist.
Sesa Sterlite, TajGVK Hotels
05
16
January
Thursday
Biocon, Cairn India
Somany Ceramics
Dish TV, VST Industries
Essar Ports
US Initial Jobless Claims
Torrent Pharma, EIH
Pidilite Industries, Sintex
Jyothy Labs, Havells India
Ajanta Pharma
Aban Offshore
February
22
January
Infosys
India Imports/Exports YoY
China CPI YoY
UK Trade Balance
UK Industrial Prod. YoY
TCS, Cyient, HSIL
Bajaj Auto, DB Corp
Federal Bank, PTC India Fin.
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
Zee Entertainment
TTK Prestige, ITC
Siyaram Silk
KPIT
0
Maruti Suzuki
Amara Raja, Idea Cellular
Titan Company
UK GDP YoY
US Service PMI
February
15
January
Wednesday
09
January
Thursday
China Trade Balance
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
Eurozone PPI YoY
0
Kajaria Ceramics, NIIT Tech
TV18, LIC Housing Finance
Yes Bank
India WPI YoY
Eurozone Industrial Prod. YoY
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Rallis India
South Indian Bank
Jindal Saw
China GDP & Ind. Prod YoY
January
08
January
Wednesday
US Trade Balance
Eurozone CPI YoY
0
0
0
IndusInd Bank, DCB Bank
UK CPI YoY
UK PPI YoY
0
0
January
Japan Trade Balance
Japan Import/Export YoY
0
0
0
02
13
Monday
InfoEdge, Mindtree
Hindustan Zinc
HUL, Atul Auto
CCL Products
ECB Current Account
07
January
HSBC India Services PMI
HSBC India Composite PMI
HSBC China Services PMI
Markit US Services PMI
Markit Japan Services PMI
January
India Industrial Prod. YoY
India CPI YoY
0
0
0
19
06
January
February
Friday
Apollo Tyres, TV Today
Tata Steel
Jet Airways
0
0
10
January
17
January
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
Saturday
Unichem Labs
Symphony Ltd
0
0
0
24
January
Saturday
United Spirits
Gati, Tata Coffee
City Union Bank
Persistent Systems
0
31
January
Saturday
Exide Industries
Divi's Labs
0
0
0
07
February
Saturday
IPCA Labs, JK cement
VA Tech Wabag
0
0
0
Result Preview
Date
19-Jan
19-Jan
20-Jan
20-Jan
22-Jan
22-Jan
Event
Industrial Production YoY
ECB Current Account SA
Industrial Production YoY
GDP YoY
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
CountryPeriod
JN
Nov F
EC
Nov
CH
Dec
CH
4Q
US
17-Jan
US
10-Jan
Actual Expected
-3.70%
-18.1B
-7.90%
7.40%
7.30%
7.20%
307K
300K
2443K
2400K
Date
23-Jan
23-Jan
23-Jan
23-Jan
23-Jan
Event
CountryPeriod
Eight Infrastructure Industries IN
Dec
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH
Jan P
Markit/JMMA Japan ManufactuJN
Jan P
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing EC
Jan P
Markit US Manufacturing PMI US
Jan P
Expected Previous
-6.70%
49.5
49.6
-52.0
51.0
50.6
54.0
53.9
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Company
Wabco India
Colgate Palmolive
UltraTech Cem
Persistent Sys. *
United Spirits *
City Union Bank *
Revenue
Q3FY15E
339.0
1,016.5
5,250
495.6
2,227.6
213.0
EBITDA
Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ Q3FY15E
30.6
5.0
57.7
15.0
2.3
185.3
9.7
-2.4
889.2
14.5
6.8
103.9
-3.5
2.3
242.2
7.8
3.3
180.4
PAT
Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ Q3FY15E
60.1 13.7
39.0
23.1
-0.6
130.9
16.4
7.2
421.8
-13.2
8.6
75.1
9.1
3.8
57.0
33.9
3.3
98.9
* - Results will be declared on 24th Jan, 2014 (Saturday)
Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC; * - Standalone
Recent Releases
Date
Report
22 January 2015
Result Update – TTK Prestige
22 January 2015
Result Update – Rallis India
22 January 2015
Result Update – ITC Ltd
22 January 2015
Result Update – Jindal Saw
22 January 2015
Result Update – Zee Entertainment Ltd
Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ
93.0 24.8
16.0
1.0
14.1
2.9
17
5.3
-12.2
LP
11.1
5.5
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vis a vis index along with positional
recommendation on Stocks/Nifty.
Covers stocks, which are likely to show
significant upward movement in the next 15
days due to change in trader sentiment.
Detailed Company
Report
Fundamental report understanding the
business model and future prospects of the
company & valuations.
Equity Model
Portfolio
High Dividend
Yield Stocks
A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large
cap, midcap and diversified
Features high dividend yielding stocks for
assured returns on investment
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain
Weekly
1-7 days
5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
10%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest
Not regularly
recommended
3 months
20%
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Fortnightly
Fortnightly – every
alternate Wednesday
> 7-15
days
5 – 7%
When published
> 1 year
> 20% &
above
Quarterly
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
[email protected]
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
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and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts
and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
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It is confirmed that Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
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Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject
company/companies mentioned in this report.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research