Opening Bell - ICICI Direct

Opening Bell
December 29, 2014
Stock specific action
Index Movement (past one month)
Key Developments
BSE (RHS)
• The government is planning to spend | 3 lakh crore on investments
in power transmission & distribution to achieve its ambitious target
to give 24x7 electricity to all by 2020
• According to media sources, Infosys has, for the first time, partnered
with three training firms to improve its sales team efficiency and deal
win ratio
• According to media sources, Hyundai Motors is looking at launching
its compact SUV codenamed GS in H1FY15E
• The Dabhol power project's management and promoters NTPC and
the Maharashtra state government have opposed the plan of lenders
and the central government to sell the plant's liquefied natural gas
terminal to pare its | 8,500 crore debt
• The DoT has sought views from the Defence and Finance Ministries
on the draft note of spectrum auction. The auctions are scheduled to
take place from February 23 next year
• Kingfisher Airlines' two-year term to renew its flying permit expires
on December 31. The Vijay Mallya promoted full service carrier has
been grounded since October 2012 and lost its flying license on
December 31, 2012
Sensex
Nifty
26-Dec
23-Dec
24000
19-Dec
25000
7800
17-Dec
26000
8000
15-Dec
27000
8200
11-Dec
28000
8400
9-Dec
29000
8600
5-Dec
8800
3-Dec
Markets Yesterday
• Domestic markets ended a choppy session marginally higher.
Technology stocks supported the markets after a report showed that
the US labour market is steadily improving as the year ends
• US markets closed positive. Sentiments remained bullish on
continued signs of strength in the economy and on Fed comments
that it will be cautious in its decision on starting to raise interest rates
Today’s Highlights
1-Dec
Market Outlook
• Indian markets are likely to remain in consolidation mode before the
Q3 earnings season. In the long term, however, the undertone
continues to remain bullish. The volatility may increase on global
news flows but it is prudent to remain invested.
NSE (LHS)
Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)
27,242 27,209
0.1
-5.1
28.7
17.7
8,201
8,174
0.3
-4.5
30.1
17.6
Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)
CY12
127,481
-56,894
CY13 YTD CY14 Yesterday Last 5 Days
112,221
98,531
40
-2,837
-73,464
-30,811
417
2,455
World Indices – Monthly performance
Shanghai
3,199
21.2%
Kospi
1,935
-1.6%
Nikkei
17,851
2.5%
France
4,296
-1.7%
Germany
9,922
1.9%
U.K.
6,610
-1.8%
Dow Jones
18,054
1.3%
NSE
8,201
-3.2%
Nasdaq
4,807
0.4%
BSE
27,242
-4.0%
Nifty Heat Map
DLF
Infosys
BPCL
GAIL
RIL
Bharti
Airtel
ONGC
Indusind
Bank
NMDC
Grasim
Ind
136.2
3.5%
1,952.3
1.1%
645.7
0.9%
437.7
0.7%
888.9
0.5%
354.3
0.3%
344.5
0.1%
784.5
0.0%
144.5
-0.3%
3,382.3
-0.8%
JSPL
Sesa
Sterlite
Hindalco
IDFC
Lupin
149.3
2.2%
207.5
1.0%
152.0
0.9%
154.7
0.7%
1,407.0
0.4%
Cairn
India
241.9
Bajaj
Auto
2,480.7
NTPC
Ambuja
Cement
HUL
0.3%
0.1%
139.3
0.0%
226.1
-0.4%
750.4
-0.9%
Tech M.
PNB
L&T
SBI
Coal India
M&M
Axis Bank
Tata
power
Cipla
ITC
2,566.7
2.0%
222.3
1.0%
1,490.2
0.8%
307.7
0.6%
378.4
0.4%
1,255.3
0.3%
494.5
0.0%
81.2
-0.1%
622.8
-0.4%
368.0
-0.9%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
HCL Tech
TCS
1,564.7
1.6%
2,505.0
1.0%
Bank of
Baroda
1,068.2
Kotak
Bank
1,253.1
HDFC
Bank
948.7
0.4%
Tata
Motors
485.2
ACC
0.8%
0.6%
0.2%
1,393.5
0.0%
Hero
Moto
3,096.4
ICICI
Bank
351.0
Maruti
-0.1%
-0.6%
3,333.1
-1.0%
HDFC Ltd
Sun
Pharma
Tata Steel
Power
Grid
Wipro
United
Spirits
1,116.2
1.5%
811.2
1.0%
398.3
0.8%
137.1
0.6%
547.4
0.3%
2,726.3
0.2%
3,134.1
Dr Reddy
0.0%
Asian
Paints
Ultratech
BHEL
727.1
-0.2%
2,603.0
-0.7%
251.6
-1.2%
Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs
Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
27,225
36,962
59.8
6361
27,207
35,999
59.5
6381
0.1
2.7
0.6
-0.3
3.6
3.6
-14.7
-0.8
-1.1
-14.9
-46.0
-13.8
63.57
1.22
120.46
63.53
1.22
120.31
0.1
0.1
0.1
-2.4
-2.1
-1.5
-2.8
-11.3
-12.6
50.4
11.5
41.4
31.8
49.3
50.9
11.7
41.1
31.7
49.6
-1.0
-1.7
0.6
0.2
-0.6
-2.9
NA
-7.7
-9.0
-15.4
46.2
NA
34.3
12.4
20.1
Sectoral Index
Sector
19-Dec
22-Dec
23-Dec
BSE Cash
1,962
22,159
18-Dec
2,553
22,159
2,523
13,630
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2,478
12,524
24-Dec
26-Dec
NSE Cash
18-Dec
19-Dec
22-Dec
23-Dec
24-Dec
303,486
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
566,898
NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)
517,331
Prior Values
4,757.51bln IN
-7.8bln mo
26.1bln $
316.83bln $
5.70%
4.50%
39.4bln $
2.50%
2.50%
-34.6bln $
13.35bln $
2.70%
0.40%
1.77%
2.43%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
325,027
Latest Values
10.1bln mo
25.96bln $
5.30%
4.70%
42.82bln $
-4.20%
-7.60%
38.6bln $
16.86bln $
0.63%
-4.91%
2.04%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
3,693
18,294
Release Date
31-Dec
03~08Dec
10~15Dec
26-Dec
28-Nov
30-May
10~15Dec
12-Dec
12-Dec
03~08Dec
10~15Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec
328,560
Period
Nov
Q3
Nov
w/e
Q2
12M
Nov
Oct
Oct
Q3
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
N/A
N/A
N/A
3,015
16,509
Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)
Key Domestic Economic Indicator
Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
303,486
Key Data Points
26-Dec
NSE Derivative
Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%)
Close
Previous
Change
% Change
Volume
Auto
18455.1
18462.6
-7.4
0.0
1118000
Banks
21253.3
21226.6
26.7
0.1
3915000
BSE Small Cap
10894.9
10892.9
2.0
0.0
80722000
Capital Goods
15113.1
15071.8
41.3
0.3
3051000
Consumer Durables
9359.5
9406.2
-46.6
-0.5
192000
FMCG
7686.1
7749.1
-63.1
-0.8
454000
Healthcare
14409.5
14372.7
36.8
0.3
668000
IT
10422.2
10334.4
87.8
0.8
440000
Metals
10562.5
10501.5
61.1
0.6
3013000
Mid Cap
10115.9
10074.5
41.3
0.4
45369000
Oil & Gas
9878.8
9871.7
7.1
0.1
1024000
Power
2032.6
2035.9
-3.3
-0.2
6872000
PSU
8121.3
8082.9
38.4
0.5
13659000
Real Estate
1533.9
1519.9
14.1
0.9
8700000
Banks
Mid Cap
FMCG
PSU
Auto
BSE Small Cap
Healthcare
Consumer Durables
-4.8
Power
-6.1
IT
-6.3
Metals
Capital Goods
-6.9
-7.6
Real Estate
Oil & Gas -9.2
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
3.2
0.0
-0.1
-1.3
-1.8
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-4.0 -2.0
(%)
0.0
2.0
4.0
Key News for Today
Company/Industry
TCS
News
Media reports suggest TCS ex-employees, who
were asked to leave as per the company's recent
workforce optimisation drive, are looking at legal
recourse backed by certain activists' groups. The
employees are generally with >10 years of
experience in the assistant and associate
consultant bands on the delivery side
View
The company has reiterated its stance of
leaving out only those employees who
are non-performers. Though this could
impact employee morale, operating
margins could improve, going ahead
VA Tech Wabag
The company has won an order for a sewage
treatment plant (STP) in Valenzuela, Philippines
for | 175 crore, which is funded by the World
Bank. The company will undertake desiging,
building and O&M service of thisc 60 MLD STP
for Maynilad water services
With this order win, the company's total
order backlog in Philippines has totalled
| 450 crore. The order intake will further
strengthen Wabag's presence in the
European region, which would help the
company to meet its order intake target
of | 3200-3400 crore for FY15E
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Impact
Key News for Today
The shortfall in sowing of Rabi crops can
be attributed to delayed monsoon and
consequent delay in sowing of Kharif
Crops. The situation is expected to
improve once all kharif crops of the
current season (FY15) are harvested
Indian
Agricultural
Sector
As per media sources, the sowing of Rabi crops
(in terms of acreage) is down 5% as compared
to the same time last year. Total acreage under
Rabi crop as of December 26, 2014 came in at 53
million hectares (MH) vis-à-vis 55.8 MH in the
corresponding period last year
Petronet LNG
Petronet has been shortlisted for setting up an If selected, it would set up a 3.5 MMTPA
LNG import terminal in Bangladesh
terminal and diversify its business
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Sensex Chart
Technical Outlook
We said, "Bias negative if the index
weakens/closes below Wednesday's low..."
The index did break Wednesday's low but did
not close below it. Down 118 points at 2:30
pm, it recovered 179 points, and finished 33
points or 0.1% higher for the day. While the
PSU bank, realty and IT outperformed, the
FMCG sector kept the Sensex under pressure.
The A/D ratio ended slightly positive.
The action formed a High Wave, with bothside shadows indicating intra-day volatility.
The index broke Wednesday's low but refused
to close below it. This could prove to be a fallarresting candle if today's action strengthens
and closes above its head. However, failure to
reach/sustain above Friday's high would keep
negative options open.
Pivot Points
CNX Nifty Technical Picture
Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA
Close
27241.78
8200.70
1393.50
452.90
42.80
1669.80
130.30
90.25
1128.80
218.15
277.40
49.75
727.05
1093.05
2480.70
1068.20
301.50
1279.45
S1
27098.55
8175.90
1388.90
450.75
42.70
1671.60
129.50
89.50
1121.25
216.30
276.25
49.45
724.05
1087.15
2470.60
1066.85
299.90
1274.75
S2
26992.40
8154.25
1382.55
446.50
42.45
1662.50
128.10
88.30
1116.50
214.75
273.10
49.10
720.05
1082.25
2460.85
1062.10
297.20
1270.15
R1
27238.20
8219.20
1401.55
459.25
43.25
1689.80
132.30
91.95
1130.75
218.05
282.55
50.15
732.05
1096.95
2490.05
1076.30
305.25
1284.00
R2
27308.00
8240.85
1407.85
461.40
43.75
1698.60
133.00
92.60
1135.50
218.95
284.20
50.50
736.05
1101.85
2499.75
1079.65
307.05
1288.60
Trend
-ve
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
+ve
Neutral
Nifty
Intraday
Short Term
Trend
Trend Reversal
Up
8185
Up
7950
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA
8185-8155
8240-8270
0
0
7950
8650
8276
7642
Advances / Declines
Advances
1381
772
BSE
NSE
Declines
1451
739
Daily Technical Calls
1. Buy Bank of India above 305.00
2. Buy Exide Industries in range of 177.50-178.00
3. Sell Apollo Hospital below 1137.00
*All recommendations are of January Future
See Momentum Pick for more details
Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – January 2014
7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600
100.0
Intraday Derivative Strategy
Buy WIPRO JAN Fut at 546.00-547.00
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 552
Target 2: 557
Stop Loss: 541
Market Lot: 500
CMP : 550
3
2
51
55
25
87
11
66
69
24
60
59
66
23
25
26
80.0
60.0
40.0
53
61
20.0
Call
0.0
Put
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Sell ASIPAI JAN Fut at 737.50-738.50
View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 732
Target 2: 725
Stop Loss: 742.9
Market Lot: 500
CMP : 734.60
See Daily Derivatives for more details
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Unchanged
123
62
Results/Events Calendar
08
Monday
Japan Current Account Bal.
0
0
0
0
15
16
Monday
Tuesday
23
Monday
29
30
December
Monday
0
0
0
0
0
December
Tuesday
January
Monday
Japan Manu. PMI
0
0
0
0
06
January
Tuesday
HSBC India Services PMI
HSBC India Composite PMI
HSBC China Services PMI
Markit US Services PMI
Markit Japan Services PMI
Thursday
25
December
0
0
0
0
0
December
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
Markit US Comp. PMI
Markit US Service PMI
0
Wednesday
December
Thursday
0
0
0
0
0
31
07
08
Wednesday
US Trade Balance
Eurozone CPI YoY
0
0
0
Event
CountryPeriod Expected Previous
Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
IN
Nov
-- 36925.0
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH
Dec F
49.5
49.5
Initial Jobless Claims
US
27-Dec
-280K
Continuing Claims
US
20-Dec
-2403K
Manufacturing PMI
CH
Dec
50.0
50.3
HSBC India Manu. PMI
IN
Dec
-53.3
Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI
EC
Dec F
50.8
50.8
Markit UK PMI Manu. SA
UK
Dec
53.6
53.5
Markit US Manu. PMI
US
Dec F
54.0
53.7
January
Thursday
China Manufacturing PMI
0
0
0
0
January
12
December
Friday
India CPI YoY
India Industrial Prod YoY
China Industrial Prod YoY
Japan Industrial Production
UK Construction Output
19
Friday
ECB Current Account
0
0
0
0
26
Friday
January
Thursday
China Trade Balance
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
Eurozone PPI YoY
0
09
Friday
Friday
27
December
03
January
10
January
Saturday
Saturday
Saturday
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
Bulk Deals
Company
BSE*
Chambal Breweries Dist.
EPC Industries Ltd.
JMC Projects (India) Ltd.
V-mart Retail Ltd.
V-mart Retail Ltd.
No. of
shares Price (|)
Client Name
Type
Arch Capital Advisors Llp
Indianivesh Securities Private Limited
Crest Capital & Investment
Fidelity Trustee Company Private Limited
Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt Lt
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Sell
100,000
173,000
135,000
500,000
500,000
KSS Limited
Lilac Farms Private Limited
Sell
1,861,248
5.1
Technocraft Industries
Indianivesh Securities Pvt. Ltd.
Sell
300000
170.5
7.5
146.8
176.0
563.0
563.0
NSE*
Recent Releases
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
December
0
0
0
0
0
January
China CPI YoY
UK Trade Balance
UK Industrial Prod. YoY
UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY
0
20
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
January
HSBC India Manu. PMI
Eurozone Manu. PMI
UK Manufacuring PMI
US Manufacturing PMI
0
December
0
0
0
0
0
December
02
13
0
0
0
0
0
December
India Eight Infra Industries
Japan CPI YoY
Japan Industrial Prod. YoY
0
0
01
December
Wednesday
Major Economic Events this week
Date
31-Dec
31-Dec
31-Dec
31-Dec
1-Jan
2-Jan
2-Jan
2-Jan
2-Jan
Thursday
18
December
Wednesday
India Fiscal Deficit
HSBC China Manu. PMI
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
0
0
0
0
0
0
05
24
Tuesday
December
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
0
0
0
US CPI YoY
Eurozone CPI YoY
US Current Account Balance
Japan Trade Balance
0
December
UK GDP YoY
UK Current Account Balance
US GDP Annualised QoQ
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
Tuesday
11
December
Wednesday
India Exports YoY
India Imports YoY
Japan PPI YoY
China CPI YoY
0
December
HSBC China Manu. PMI
Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI
UK CPI YoY
Markit US Manu. PMI
0
December
10
December
UK Industrial Production YoY
UK Manu. Production YoY
0
0
0
December
India WPI YoY
US Industrial Prod. MoM
US manufacturing Prod.
0
0
22
09
December
Date
Report
26 December 14
Company Update – Mastek Ltd
24 December 14
Company Update – Container Corporation
24 December 14
Company Update – Jaiprakash Associates
24 December 14
Company Update – Gujarat Pipavav Port
24 December 14
Quick Comment – UltraTech Cement
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Fundamental report understanding the
business model and future prospects of the
company & valuations.
Equity Model
Portfolio
High Dividend
Yield Stocks
A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large
cap, midcap and diversified
Features high dividend yielding stocks for
assured returns on investment
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain
Weekly
1-7 days
5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
10%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest
Not regularly
recommended
3 months
20%
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Fortnightly
Fortnightly – every
alternate Wednesday
> 7-15
days
5 – 7%
When published
> 1 year
> 20% &
above
Quarterly
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
[email protected]
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
[email protected]
Disclaimer
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We /I, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research