Project Success

Velkommen til
Executive Master of
Management-programmet
PROSJEKTLEDELSE
Jonas Söderlund
• Professor, BI Norwegian School of Management
• Professor, KITE, Linköping University
• Education: Harvard Business School, MIT, and LiU
• Visiting professor/scholar: Cranfield School of Management,
Ecole Polytechnique, MIT
• Core faculty/director: Advanced Project Management, PMEX
Executive MBA, MM PM
• Research on: Project-based organizations, project
management, Human Resource Management, technical
consultants.
• Research in collaboration with: Astra Zeneca, Saab, Volvo
Cars, Volvo Aero, Tetra Pak, ABB, Skanska, Scania, and Ericsson.
“90 percent of all
projects fail…”
“70 % of all projects
exceed time and
budget.”
“Projects are plagued
with failures…”
”We need to rethink our
current way of managing
projects”
”Projects deliver
disappointing value.” “There is something wrong with
our theory of project
management…”
PROJECT
Cost overrun (%)
Boston’s artery/tunnel project
Humber bridge, UK
Boston-Washington-New York rail, USA
Great Belt rail tunnel, Denmark
A6 Motorway Chapel-en-le-Frith/Whaley bypass, UK
196
175
130
110
100
Shinkansen Joetsu rail line, Japan
Washington metro, USA
Channel tunnel, UK, France
Karlsruhe-Bretten light rail, Germany
Öresund access links, Denmark
Mexico City metro line
Paris-Auber-Nanterre rail line
Tyne and Wear metro, UK
Great Belt link, Denmark
Öresund coast-to-coast link, Denmark/Sweden
100
85
80
80
70
60
60
55
54
26
Nature and success
of projects
6
• Biased Decision Making
 “We believe it is true!”
 Optimism bias and Delusions of success
 Lovallo & Kahneman (2003)
• Strategic Misrepresentation
 “We know what we are doing, we do it anyway”
 Inaccurate forecasts and Reference class forecasting
 Flyvbjerg (2006)
Uncertainty
– poorly understood
or poorly managed?
And the No.1 rule of
project management
is…..
1. Embrace uncertainty.
Expect the unexpected. There is far more that we don't
know and can't know than what we can anticipate. Be
resilient to what life throws at you. Anticipate that your
team will learn something along the way that can and
should change what you have promised and how you
can deliver on your promises.
Type of
uncertainty
Variation
Cost, time and
performance levels
vary randomly, but
in a predictable
range.
Foreseen
uncertainty
A few known
factors will
influence, but in
unpredictable ways.
Unforeseen
uncertainty
One or more major
influence factors
cannot be
predicted.
Chaos
Unforeseen events
completely
invalidate the
project’s target,
planning and
approach.
Project manager’s
role
Managing tasks
Managing relationships
Troubleshooter and
expeditor. Managers
must plan with
buffers and use
disciplined execution.
Planning: simulate scenarios, insert
buffers at strategic points in critical
path, set control limits at which to
take corrective action.
Planning: identify and
communicate expected
performance criteria.
Consolidator of
project achievements.
Managers must
identify risks, prevent
threats and develop
contingency plans.
Planning: anticipate alternative
paths to project goal by using
decision-tree technique, use risk
lists, contingency planning and
decision analysis.
Execution: identify occurrences of
foreseen risks and trigger
contingencies.
Planning: increase awareness for
changes in environment relative
to known criteria or dimensions.
Flexible orchestrator
and networker and
ambassador. Must
solve new problems
and modify both
targets and methods.
Planning: build in the ability to add
a set of new tasks to the decision
tree, plan iteratively.
Planning: mobilize new partners
in the network to help solve new
challenges.
Execution: scan the horizon for
early signs of unanticipated
influences.
Execution: maintain flexible
relationships, communicate with
stakeholders, develop beneficial
dependencies.
Entrepreneur and
knowledge manager.
Managers must
repeatedly and
completely redefine
the project.
Planning: iterate continually and
gradually select final approach, use
parallel development.
Execution: verify goals on the basis
of learning; plan only to next
verification, prototype rapidly,
make go/no-go decisions
ruthlessly.
Planning: build long-term
relationships with aligned
interests, seek partnerships.
Execution: link closely with
users. leaders in the field, solicit
direct and constant feedback
from markets. technology
providers.
Execution: monitor deviation from
intermediate targets.
Execution: monitor performance
against criteria, establish some
flexibility with key stakeholders.
Execution: inform and motivate
stakeholders to cope with
switches in project execution.
Project Success and
Value Creation
Project Success
Efficiency
•Meeting
schedule
•Meeting
budget
•Meeting
requirements
and
specifications
•Other
efficiencies
Impact on
customer
•Customer
satisfaction
and loyalty
•Benefit to
customer
•Extent of use
•Brand name
recognition
Impact on
team
•Team
satisfaction
•Skill
development
•Team
member
growth
•Team
member
retention
Business and
direct success
•ROI, ROE
•Sales
•Profits
•Market share
•Cash flow
•Service
quality
Preparation
for future
•New
technology
•New market
•New product
line
•New core
competency
•New
organizational
capability
•No burnout
13
Success
dimensions
Project Success
Preparation
for future
Business and
direct success
Impact on
team
Impact on
customer
Efficiency
Short
Medium
Long
Time frame
14
Velkommen til
Executive Master of
Management-programmet
PROSJEKTLEDELSE
MM-programmet: 6 samlinger
1. Prosjektifisering og prosjektets fundament
2. Planlegging og håndtering av usikkerhet
3. Organisering, relasjoner og
interessenthåndtering
4. Oppfølging, læring og gevinstrealisering
5. Lederskap og teamarbeid i prosjektet
6. Den prosjektorienterte virksomheten
Prosjektoppgaven Del 1
Del 2
Del 3
Innsendinger
Nr 1
Nr 2
Nr 3
Selvstudium
Bolk 1
Bolk 2
Bolk 3
Del 4
Bolk 4
P
R
O
S
J
E
K
T
O
P
P
G
A
V
E
&
Nettaktivitet
Samling i Nydalen
Periode 1
Periode 2
1
2
Periode 3
3
Periode 4
4
E
K
S
A
M
E
N
4 Intensivsamlinger
• Samling 1
Prosjektets fundament
• Samling 2
Planlegging av prosjekter
• Samling 3
Organisering, oppfølging og styring
• Samling 4
Lederskap og ledelse i prosjekter og prosjektvirksomheter
Prosjektoppgaven ordinært program
• Beskrive et virkelig prosjekt, som er i
virksomhet i hele eller deler av
studieperioden
• Analysere en eller flere problemstillinger i
tilknytning til prosjektet
Prosjektoppgaven avsluttende program
• Et lite forskningsprosjekt med ambisjon å bidra til den
samlede kunnskapen på området
• Sentralt å gjøre seg kjent med forskningslitteraturen
på området
• Fritt valg av tema, men temaet ska ha tydelig koppling
og relevans for prosjektledelsesfaget
• Empirisk eller rent teoretisk, kvalitativ eller empirisk
• Innledningsvis veiledning i gruppe. Siden mer fokusert
individuell veiledning
Prosjektledelsegruppen på BI
• Anne Live Vaagaasar
• Jonas Söderlund
• Erling S. Andersen
• Jan Terje Karlsen
• Ralf Müller
• Kim van Oorschot
• Donatella de Paoli
• Jon Lereim
• Morten Juel Hansen
• Therese Dille
• Anne Berit Swanberg
• Andrew Davies
• Hans Solli Saether
• Katrine Sveen Fjellestad,
adm.