to read more in the April 2015 issue of The Beacham Insider.
Transcription
to read more in the April 2015 issue of The Beacham Insider.
Vol. 8, Issue 2 | April 2015 BEACHAM Your Housing Market Update From The Best People in Atlanta Real Estate™ Insider One Buckhead Plaza 3060 Peachtree Road Suite 100 Atlanta, GA 30305 404.261.6300 www.beacham.com Atlanta home sales surge higher in March; Beacham & Company sales up 88% ATLANTA – Atlanta home sales surged in March after Housing inventory remains a critical component to being stuck in neutral for the first two months of the year. the health and sustainability of the market but is still According to the local MLS, the number of homes sold in stubbornly low in areas of high demand such as Buckhead, Morningside, East Cobb and North Fulton. March was up 20.8% from March 2014. “It was the first time That marked the best performance in in recent memory that “We are encouraging sellers who are thinking percentage terms for Atlanta home sales the number of sales about moving not to wait to put their homes in recent memory and the best March in on the market, because May is the best year increased by a greater number of sales since March 2011. of the month to sell a home,” Carver said. percentage than the The average home sales price rose by a average sales price.” “Also, waiting to sell could prove costly.” There are a number of factors that could rate of 5.5% to $277,300 compared to make 2016 a much tougher year for buyers $262,885 last March. It was also the first time in recent memory that the percentage increase in and sellers alike: home sales was greater than the percentage increase in • A majority of economists say interest rates will rise in the average home sales price. September – an interest rate increase coupled with strong home price appreciation has the effect of reducing the For its part, Beacham & Company, REALTORS® buyer pool from the top of the mortgage market down outperformed the suddenly red-hot market again in March. Beacham sales were up 88% compared to March 2014. • We are more than 18 months overdue for a stock market correction – an event that historically has a negative impact “Our success this year is the direct result of our agents on the real estate market – particularly the high end getting new listings on the market early in the year ahead of the competition,” said Dac Carver, Vice President and • Next year is a major election year – another occurrence Managing Broker for Beacham & Company. that is not historically favorable to high-end real estate. ATLANTA’S FASTEST GROWING REAL ESTATE FIRM 105 100 Last 12 Months Ending 3/31/2015 1st Quarter 2015 vs. 1st Quarter 2014* 95 90 85 +81.9% +84.2% $5 M 75 $4.5 M DOLLAR AMOUNT SOLD PER AGENT 80 70 65 PERCENT CHANGE ATLANTA’S TOP SELLING AGENTS 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 +21.2% +18.1% 20 +14.4% 15 +7.2% 10 0 Units Sold -5 -10 Dollar Volume Sold Beacham & Company, REALTORS® Units Sold Dollar Volume Sold Dorsey Alston, REALTORS® Units Sold Dollar Volume Sold Atlanta Fine Homes/Sotheby’s International Realty $4.25 M $4 M +.02% – 4.1% Dollar Volume Sold Harry Norman, REALTORS® Factoid There have been seven home sales in Atlanta of $3 million or more in the first three months of 2015 – all in Buckhead. That’s the most since seven were sold in the first quarter of 2011. $4,448,884 $4,001,685 $3.75 M $3.5 M Trending $3.25 M $3 M $2.75 M $2,678,237 $2,492,288 $2.5 M $2.25 M $1,992,502 $2 M $1,187,379 $1.75 M $1.5 M $1.25 M Units Sold ATLANTA REAL ESTATE’S SOCIAL MEDIA LEADER Follow us on Facebook and Instagram! (see details on page 3) $1 M $0 M Beacham & Atlanta Fine Dorsey Company, Homes/ Alston, REALTORS® Sotheby’s REALTORS® International Realty Harry Norman, REALTORS® Keller Williams Realty– PEACHTREE ROAD Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Georgia Properties Condo sales continue to outperform single family detached home sales. Sales of condos were up 15% in the first quarter of 2015 (37% among the Beacham Bellwethers – see page 4) while single family detached home sales were up just 8%. *Among companies with $100 million in sales volume in Q1 2015. Single family detached and condo sales Beacham Mobile www.beacham.com ® ® If your home is currently listed for sale, this newsletter is not intended as a solicitation of your business. Beacham App available in Apple Store Economist tells Beacham & Company that keys to housing recovery are Millennials, home building ATLANTA – The Millennial generation, consisting of individuals born between 1982-2000, along with commercial lenders and home builders, hold the key to a complete recovery in the Atlanta housing market according to Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University. Dhawan, who spoke to a companywide meeting of Beacham & Company, REALTORS® in March at the firm’s Buckhead offices, would not predict when these forces would come together to move the housing market closer to full recovery, but he offered a clue as to when Millennials – already recognized by the National Association of REALTORS® as the largest segment of eligible home buyers – might enter the housing market en masse. “Millennials are timing the market, waiting for interest rates to rise,” Dhawan said. “Every time an economist says interest rates will rise, they don’t.” However, Dhawan predicted there is a better than 50 percent chance interest rates will rise by September of this year and will rise one percent in 2016 and again in 2017. Dhawan also said commercial lenders and home builders are critical to the recovery. More than half of the multi-family residential projects announced for the housing darling of Millennials – Midtown – have not received financing and the projects that have are mostly apartments. He also lamented the still muted return of home building, noting that Atlanta housing permits are still just 15 percent of what they were in the mid-2000s. One of the challenges is that the small-to-medium sized single family home builders are “gone,” he said. “And (production) builders won’t build any more houses than they are already building.” Dhawan’s comments echoed those of another economist, Lawrence Yun of the National Association of REALTORS®, who called for loosening of credit standards for homebuilders in The Wall Street Journal the same day. Yun told the Journal that, “exempting smaller lenders from new mortgage rules could help revive home building activity and boost the overall housing market.” Due to Beacham & Company’s specialty in luxury real estate, Dhawan also addressed the current state of high-end home sales. He said the demand for properties priced between $500,000 and $1 million is much more tied to U.S. stocks than a decade ago. Further complicating matters, the factors influencing the stock market have shifted from domestic to international. For example, a series of events principally involving Russia, the European Union and China over the last year or more has made the U.S. stock market the darling of world capital, he said. The result has been a tripling in value of U.S. stocks from 2009 and more optimistic buyers of luxury real estate. Dhawan, fresh off a presentation to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in Washington, DC yesterday, said he feels good about Georgia’s economy because it is being lifted by strong consumer confidence, job growth in the catalyst sectors, and a construction boost from “mega” projects such as the new Braves stadium. He said potential trouble spots for the world’s economy are the banking sector in Europe and China’s inability to jump start its economy. The Spring issue is here! Contact your Beacham agent for a copy or email us at [email protected] Your global real estate search starts here with the new LeadingRE.com! Just 2% of Georgia homebuyers in 2014 were from outside the U.S. Mike Fitzmeyer 678.458.5901 Felix Buitrago 678.468.4432 [email protected] 404.504.8700 www.beacham.com • 404.261.6300 2 John Lanigan, Jr., 404.261.8942 [email protected] www.lanigan.net arrowexterminators.com 770.552.4943 Follow us on Facebook and Instagram to learn about: Sellers, the Time To List Your Home Is Now W hen you decide it’s time to sell your home, there are several factors to take into consideration for the best possible results. Working with a professional real estate team and making sure your house is ready for the market without pending inspections or repairs are obvious suggestions for success. Timing is also important when it comes to making the most out of your investment. Data gathered by ShowingTime is proof that early spring is the best time to sell. ShowingTime is used by many of the nation’s top real estate firms to schedule online property showings on their websites. The web-based software has steadily tracked request activity on these websites since 2001. What they found through the years: April and May are the peak months for property showings. As you would expect, closings peak either in June and July - roughly 60 days after showing activity peaks according to the National Association of Realtors. • New listings and open houses • Significant sales of $1 million or more • Design trends and special listing photos • Blog posts about real estate-related topics • Community news about new restaurants, shops and real estate projects Upcoming this month on the Beacham.com/ blog: Data gathered from the Atlanta MLS confirms this theory along with another key point: Average home sales prices peak in June and July as a result of the frenzied nature of the market in April and May. The accompanying chart traces the average sales price in Atlanta between 2006 and 2014. June and July are consistently the peak for sales prices. The moral of the story is clear: According to three major industry leaders in real estate data aggregation, June and July deliver the highest results in terms of both the chances that your home will be purchased quickly and that it will fetch a higher overall sales price. Sellers must be on the market by April or May to take full advantage of this seasonal spike in real estate prices. Contact us today to get started! METRO ATLANTA Average Monthly Sales Price – in Thousands – Residential Detached Average Monthly Sales Price – Residential Detached PRICES GOING UP PRICES GOING DOWN $280,256 $270,256 $260,256 $250,256 2007 $240,256 2008 $230,256 2009 $220,256 2010 $210,256 2011 $200,256 2012 $190,256 2013 $180,256 2014 $170,256 2015 • Kitchen designs that are selling right now • How to strengthen your bid in multiple offer situations • Atlanta’s hip Westside district $160,256 $150,256 FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. } JAN. NOV. DEC. Average decline = 10% between June/July and September EVERY YEAR, THE AVERAGE HOME SALES PRICE IN ATLANTA PEAKS IN JUNE OR JULY 3 Kitchen designs that are selling right now is one of the topics on this month’s Beacham blog BEACHAM BELLWETHERS SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES 01/01/15 - 03/31/15 VS. 01/01/14 - 03/31/14 2015 Sales 2014 Sales Diff. BUCKHEAD (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON COUNTY) Buckhead East - Garden Hills/Peachtree Park/Piedmont Heights-East/Garden Hills Elementary School (30305) 22 18 4 Buckhead Central - Argonne Forest, Haynes Manor, Piedmont Heights-West/E. Rivers Elementary (30305) 21 11 10 Buckhead North - Chastain Park/Tuxedo Park/Mt. Paran Road/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327) 18 18 0 Buckhead Northeast - East of Roswell Road/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30342) 22 12 10 Buckhead Northwest - West of I-75/Ridgewood/Rivermead/Garraux/Cloudland/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327) 2 1 1 Buckhead South - Ardmore Park/Brookwood Hills/Collier Hills/Loring Heights/Peachtree Hills/E. Rivers Elementary School (30309 north of the Brookwood split) 12 14 -2 Buckhead West - Castlewood/Hanover West/Ridgewood Heights/Memorial Park/Springlake/Wildwood/Morris Brandon Elementary (30327) 13 16 -3 ATLANTA INTOWN (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON AND DEKALB COUNTIES) Ansley Park/Midtown/Sherwood Forest/south and east of the Brookwood split/Morningside Elementary School (30309) 6 14 -8 Morningside-Virginia Highlands/Morningside Elementary School (30306) 23 32 -9 ATLANTA (DEKALB COUNTY AND FULTON COUNTY - ATLANTA ADDRESSES BUT EITHER IN UNINCORPORATED AREA OR PART OF ANOTHER CITY) Ashford Park/Ashford Park Elementary School (30319, 30341) 57 76 -19 Historic Brookhaven/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30319) 10 9 1 Pine Hills/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30324) 6 8 -2 Decatur-DeKalb County/Briarcliff/Oak Grove Elementary (parts of 30033, 30345) 8 7 1 Decatur-City/Clairemont-Westchester-Winona Park Elementary (30030) 18 27 -9 Druid Hills/Briarvista/Emory Village/CDC/Fernbank Elementary (30307, 30030, 30033) 13 23 -10 Dunwoody - Austin, Kingsley and Vanderlyn Elementary Schools (30338, 30350) 62 51 11 North Atlanta - High Point/Lynwood Park/Murphy-Candler Park/Peachtree Golf Club/ High Point Elementary School (30342, 30319) 39 32 7 EAST COBB COUNTY (MARIETTA/ROSWELL) East Cobb/Marietta - Walton High School (30068) 48 53 -5 East Cobb/Marietta - Pope High School (30062) 86 64 22 SANDY SPRINGS (CITY OF SANDY SPRINGS, FULTON COUNTY) Sandy Springs (Atlanta address) - South of I-285 & West of Roswell Road/Heards Ferry Elementary/Riverwood High School (30327, 30342) 24 25 -1 Sandy Springs - North of I-285 / Heards Ferry Elementary-Riverwood High School (30328) 25 11 14 SMYRNA/VININGS - COBB COUNTY Smyrna/Nickajack Elementary (30080) 24 23 1 Historic Vinings/Teasley Elementary School (30339) 8 12 -4 NORTH FULTON COUNTY Alpharetta West of GA-400 (30004, 30009) 92 86 6 Alpharetta East of GA-400/Windward (30005, 30022, 30076) 183 142 41 Johns Creek (30022, 30097) 74 97 -23 Milton (30004) 60 51 9 Roswell - East and West of GA-400 (30075, 30076, 30077) 219 211 8 BEACHAM BELLWETHER TOTALS 1,195 1,144 51 FMLS TOTALS (Cobb, Dekalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett) 7,669 7,231 438 2015 Avg. Sale $ 2014 Avg. Sale $ Diff. BUCKHEAD (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON COUNTY) Buckhead East - Garden Hills/Peachtree Park/Piedmont Heights-East/Garden Hills Elementary School (30305) $774,919 $705,883 $69,036 Buckhead Central - Argonne Forest, Haynes Manor, Piedmont Heights-West/E. Rivers Elementary (30305) $669,118 $613,682 $55,436 Buckhead North - Chastain Park/Tuxedo Park/Mt. Paran Road/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327) $1,468,111 $993,265 $474,846 Buckhead Northeast - East of Roswell Road/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30342) $806,995 $764,955 $42,040 Buckhead Northwest - West of I-75/Ridgewood/Rivermead/Garraux/Cloudland/Warren T. Jackson Elementary School (30327) $3,357,250 $108,000 $3,249,250 Buckhead South - Ardmore Park/Brookwood Hills/Collier Hills/Loring Heights/Peachtree Hills/E. Rivers Elementary School (30309 north of the Brookwood split) $839,000 $629,929 $209,071 Buckhead West - Castlewood/Hanover West/Ridgewood Heights/Memorial Park/Springlake/Wildwood/Morris Brandon Elementary (30327) $804,419 $931,804 $(127,385) ATLANTA INTOWN (CITY OF ATLANTA, FULTON AND DEKALB COUNTIES) Ansley Park/Midtown/Sherwood Forest/south and east of the Brookwood split/Morningside Elementary School (30309) $867,333 $1,115,191 $(247,858) Morningside-Virginia Highlands/Morningside Elementary School (30306) $742,935 $802,095 $(59,160) ATLANTA (DEKALB COUNTY AND FULTON COUNTY - ATLANTA ADDRESSES BUT EITHER IN UNINCORPORATED AREA OR PART OF ANOTHER CITY) Ashford Park/Ashford Park Elementary School (30319, 30341) $504,292 $424,105 $80,187 Historic Brookhaven/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30319) $1,352,933 $1,135,111 $217,822 Pine Hills/Sarah Smith Elementary School (30324) $666,669 $472,906 $193,763 Decatur-DeKalb County/Briarcliff/Oak Grove Elementary (parts of 30033, 30345) $500,955 $371,288 $129,667 Decatur-City/Clairemont-Westchester-Winona Park Elementary (30030) $499,000 $526,956 $(27,956) Druid Hills/Briarvista/Emory Village/CDC/Fernbank Elementary (30307, 30030, 30033) $607,915 $519,165 $88,750 Dunwoody - Austin, Kingsley and Vanderlyn Elementary Schools (30338, 30350) $425,586 $398,098 $27,488 North Atlanta - High Point/Lynwood Park/Murphy-Candler Park/Peachtree Golf Club/ High Point Elementary School (30342, 30319) $673,834 $534,190 $139,644 EAST COBB COUNTY (MARIETTA/ROSWELL) East Cobb/Marietta - Walton High School (30068) $543,920 $433,969 $109,951 East Cobb/Marietta - Pope High School (30062) $375,377 $335,543 $39,834 SANDY SPRINGS (CITY OF SANDY SPRINGS, FULTON COUNTY) Sandy Springs (Atlanta address) - South of I-285 & West of Roswell Road/Heards Ferry Elementary/Riverwood High School (30327, 30342) $1,285,213 $1,086,570 $198,643 Sandy Springs - North of I-285 / Heards Ferry Elementary-Riverwood High School (30328) $703,244 $706,864 $(3,620) SMYRNA/VININGS - COBB COUNTY Smyrna/Nickajack Elementary (30080) $406,500 $409,294 $(2,794) Historic Vinings/Teasley Elementary School (30339) $1,043,875 $1,091,333 $(47,458) NORTH FULTON COUNTY Alpharetta West of GA-400 (30004, 30009) $374,122 $399,272 $(25,150) Alpharetta East of GA-400/Windward (30005, 30022, 30076) $412,300 $405,701 $6,599 Johns Creek (30022, 30097) $448,063 $458,837 $(10,774) Milton (30004) $640,501 $658,467 $(17,966) Roswell - East and West of GA-400 (30075, 30076, 30077) $364,053 $367,290 $(3,237) BEACHAM BELLWETHER TOTALS $525,238 $501,298 $23,940 FMLS TOTALS (Cobb, Dekalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett) $285,892 $261,876 $24,016 CONDOMINIUM SALES Buckhead Village/Central Buckhead (30305) Buckhead East of I-75 & South of Peachtree Creek (30309) Buckhead East of I-75 and North of Buckhead Village (30327) City of Decatur (30030) Midtown (30309) Perimeter/Sandy Springs (30328) Smyrna (30080) Historic Vinings (30339) Westside/Atlantic Station/Home Park/Georgia Tech (30313, 30318, 30363) BEACHAM BELLWETHER TOTALS FMLS TOTALS (Cobb, DeKalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett) % Change 22% 91% 0% 83% 100% -14% -19% -57% -28% -25% 11% -25% 14% -33% -43% 22% 22% -9% 34% -4% 127% 4% -33% 7% 29% -24% 18% 4% 4% 6% % Change 10% 9% 48% 5% 3009% 33% -14% -22% -7% 19% 19% 41% 35% -5% 17% 7% 26% 25% 12% 18% -1% -1% -4% -6% 2% -2% -3% -1% 5% 8% 01/01/15 - 03/31/15 VS. 01/01/14 - 03/31/14 2015 Sales 85 48 12 30 117 108 67 50 89 606 2,430 2014 Sales 91 27 11 22 27 92 80 42 50 442 2,113 Diff. -6 21 1 8 90 16 -13 8 39 164 317 % Change -7% 78% 9% 36% 333% 17% -16% 19% 78% 37% 15% 2014 Avg. Sale $ $431,860 $294,258 $399,000 $227,478 $294,258 $217,319 $204,648 $285,757 $234,287 $312,703 $211,125 2013 Avg. Sale $ $352,471 $259,075 $348,355 $189,602 $268,002 $195,842 $173,469 $366,519 $189,834 $315,264 $194,831 www.beacham.com • 404.261.6300 4 Diff. $79,389 $35,183 $50,645 $37,876 $26,256 $21,477 $31,179 $(80,762) $44,453 $(2,561) $16,294 % Change 23% 14% 15% 20% 10% 11% 18% -22% 23% -1% 8% ABOUT THE BELLWETHERS The accompanying statistical grid labeled “Beacham Bellwethers” is a tracking index devised by Beacham & Company to chart the sales activity of metro Atlanta’s most popular neighborhoods (by highly desirable school districts) and to compare their sales activity to the metro area as a whole. The term “bellwether”is used to describe something that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings. In the stock market, a bellwether is the stock of a company that is regarded as a leader in its given industry. The performance of a bellwether stock is said to reflect the performance of the industry in general. For the most part, we compare sales data year-over-year instead of month-to-month because the real estate market experiences seasonal fluctuations that make month-to-month comparisons misleading. For instance, June is the busiest closing month of the year but February is traditionally one of the slowest. By comparing productivity from the same month a year earlier, a more accurate measure of the health of the housing market can be obtained. Top Performing Markets