National School

 National School
for Political and Administrative Studies
THE EASTERN DIMENSION OF ROMANIA’S FOREIGN POLICY (1989-­‐2010) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Eduard Rudolf ROTH
Scientific coordinator
Professor Mihail Ionescu, PhD
Submitted in total fulfillment of the requirements for the of Philosophy degree of Doctor Bucharest - Romania
March-April 2015
i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. INTRODUCTORY CHAPTER I.1: Study Background The thesis entitled ‘The Eastern Dimension of Romania’s foreign policy (1989-­‐2010)’ is devoted to the analysis of the behavioural dynamics of Romania’s foreign policy towards East in the period 1989-­‐2010, being the fruit of a five year research work carried out at National School for Political and Administrative Studies from Bucharest and at University of Kent at Canterbury (Brussels School for International Studies). The projects’ chronological limits were defined in order to reflect two historical turning points that had a significant contribution to the development and formulation of Romania’s foreign policy: -­‐
the year 1989 is a historical year landmark for Romania as it marks the last and the bloodiest of the wave of revolutions that swept the Eastern bloc and which somehow heralded the 1991 implosion of USSR (and subsequently the beginning of a the post-­‐Cold War Era); -­‐
the year 2010 is the year when Romania’s Supreme Defence Council had accepted a plan by Washington to deploy interceptor missiles inside its national territory, (as part of an US missile shield to protect Europe) – a foreign policy action which arguably shaped the proper climate for Bucharest to evolve from a distant NATO outpost situated on the European periphery of the Alliance, into an important variable of NATO’s global security equation. Key to my work is the analysis of Romania’s foreign policy in a conceptual framework situated at the intersection of the new political realities that reshaped the geometry of the international environment with the ahistorical theoretical constructions defined across the years by various IR and FPA schools of thought. Tributary to the belief that the existent split between FPA and IR Theory is to a large extent artificial being triggered by the different ontological and epistemological preferences of the two differences (the agent-­‐
structure debate or individualism-­‐holism – as reflected in the works of Kubalkova (2001) and Hudson’s (2005) – I will argue that through a conceptual overstretching aimed to diminish the normative pitfalls and theoretical flaws of their anthropomorphic fallacy, IR theories can be used in order to explain foreign policy dynamics. The limitations of the theoretical constructions considering states as agents and not as structures should also be overcome in order to unveil complex causal mechanisms. Moreover, in order to analyse Romania’s behavioural pattern through the conceptual lenses of the IR and FPA theories, I have updated the selected analytical toolkit with a new theoretical NRC concept circumscribed to the Role Theory’s sets of assumptions, propositions and values, with a multi-­‐layered conceptualization of foreign-­‐policy making within Neo-­‐Classical Realist theoretical framework and also a pre-­‐determined variation of Alexander Wendt’s Social Constructivism – aimed to partially answer to Zehfuss (2002) criticisms of the theory, which I developed in my Master Thesis presented at the University of Kent at Canterbury. These theoretical developments were fuelled, on one hand, by the fact that domestic politics can cause states to pursue suboptimal foreign policies (in report to what is expected from a unitary rational actor interacting with other unitary rational actors in an anarchic environment), and on another, because the differences between political, cultural and economic structures, or leadership goals unrelated to relative power may be causally relevant to explaining different foreign policy choices. 2 I.2: Aim and Objectives Through a theoretical endosymbiosis involving the engulfment of the structural geometry of power within the theoretical framework of foreign policy analysis, the central aim of this research is to identify and explain the behavioural dynamics of Romania’s foreign policy exercise towards East in the period 1989-­‐
2010. By focusing both on the systemic topography (in terms of power, entities controlling the power, visibility and perceptibility) and on the domestic inputs that could play a role in the formulation of foreign policy decisions, the thesis would uncover a large portfolio of both exogenous and endogenous interferences, explaining not only why, but also how a certain behavioural pattern occurred at a given moment. In this context, the thesis will argue that – with the exception of the period 1989-­‐1995 when Romania’s foreign policy relations were circumscribed to an inertial matrix of cooperation – between 1995 and until 2006, Romania had no coherent foreign policy towards East and all existent interactions and alignment were in fact by-­‐products of the overstretched prevalence of NATO and EU accession processes in Bucharest’s foreign policy exercise. In particular, this situation occurred due to the monopolization of Romania’s foreign policy resources by the European and Euro-­‐Atlantic integration, which left only marginal and modest institutional capacities for the design and formulation of other diplomatic projects played a key role in the process, but also because both Washington and Brussels imposed an altercasting socialization pattern to Bucharest, by providing cues to elicit a certain behaviour and ascribing roles, identities and ways of conduct that were congruent with their interests and goals, directly through bilateral interactions, or indirectly through sets of institutional, normative, legal, organizational or technical platforms (PfP, MAP, IMF and World Bank Agreements, acquis communautaire, etc.. However, after 2006 when the EU accession was about to materialize, Romania began a more active policy towards East, although mainly in the sense of revamping the economic ties with its former partners from st
Asia. After January 1 , 2007, it began to use the superior institutional capacities available for the design of diplomatic projects towards East and the possibility to upload national and ‘Americanized’ preferences through European foreign policy framework, the most visible being Black Sea Synergy and Caspian energy transport projects. I.3: Thesis Contributions The overarching argument for embarking on this specific research process is represented by the absence of any academic studies focused on identifying structural, domestic, perceptual and notional mutations affecting the Eastern dimension of Romania’s foreign policy exercise in the given period from a multi-­‐
dimensional/multi-­‐factorial perspective. Furthermore, the present experimental exploration focused on evaluating the amplitude of each process of change occurring from a multi-­‐dimensional, multi-­‐layered and functionally-­‐overlapped perspective -­‐ will arguably better account for explaining Romania’s diplomatic behaviour, than the existent body of literature which tend to cover rather singular foreign policy files in a relatively eclectic and very broad manner. Subsequently this project will highlight how Romania’s foreign policy in general and towards East in particular has evolved since 1989, how this has impacted Bucharest’s position in the international system, and what this means for future policies. Furthermore, the chosen interplay between practice and theory, will allow the thesis to capture the mutation processes manifested by what might be defined as some core variables by various IR schools of thought, namely security, sovereignty and identity, while identifying the factors which contributed to their conceptual broadening, widening or deepening. 3 Moreover, the symbiotic juxtaposition of theory and practice germinated in some collateral theoretical developments, namely the theoretic conceptualization of security and identity, as multi-­‐layered constructions, a meta-­‐theoretical improvement which will arguably allow a better way to effectively address any ontological issues in the new global environment, while preserving their validity and academic sense shaped by various schools of thought. One of the by-­‐products of the research process is represented by the thorough academic review of the Realist body of theories, the first of this amplitude realized by a Romanian scientist and arguably more complete than any existent material covering this topic, and which could be easily exported under the form of a Manual on Political Realism, destined to worldwide International Relations students and researchers. A part of this theoretical research was already published in an academic collection of texts regarding IR theories. I.4: Methodology and data used In seeking to select the most appropriate methodology for the purpose of testing the hypothesis of the structural mutation occurring in the Eastern dimension of Romania’s foreign policy, the thesis draws upon the work of Mike Weed, entitled ‘Meta interpretation: a method for the interpretive synthesis of qualitative research”. Arguably, this quintessential work on methodology has been chosen as a guiding reference in that meta-­‐interpretation approach provides synergistic insights in the interpretation of qualitative research within an eclectic theoretical environment and not only conclusions which are nothing but the sum of the parts, but also in that it serves as an instrument for the employment of the case-­‐study method, in order to discover the conditions under which a specified outcome occurs, and the mechanisms through which this occurrence takes place. On another hand, the rationale behind opting for an eclectic analytical framework and therefore in trying to uncover various insights of the structural mutations occurring in the Eastern dimension of Romania’s foreign policy exercise is represented by the fact that the entwined and recombined instruments employed by a broad portfolio of research traditions can help in developing a more complex model of the traditional diplomatic praxis, without obscuring the complexity of the process for the sake of conformity to the theoretical or methodological tenets characterizing individual school of thought and research traditions. In this context, the thesis will pivot on the analysis of the country’s behavioural dynamics through a dichotomist dialogue between rationalist and ideational approaches, which can hamper the understanding of the motives and even the nature of a certain foreign policy alignment. Yet, without minimizing the explanatory power of the grand theories of International Relations, (Realism and Constructivism) which explain the behaviour of a state as being determined by the geometry of the international environment itself and by the interactions between states, the research will also engage the power of FPA analytical mechanisms (decision making theory and role theory) which could explain the role of various domestic inputs in a state’s foreign policy formulation and praxis and namely the multilevel and multidimensional theories of foreign policy analysis. Finally, it worth noting that in order to reconstruct and systematically analyse the structural mutations occurring in the Eastern dimension of Romania’s foreign policy exercise, the research process will focus on collecting and selecting data from a wide-­‐range of sources: academic literature, archival documents, interview transcripts or original interviews. The main problem associated with this specific task is to ensure the quality and integrity of the analysis, in the context that the research data used is usually already synthesized and interpreted. In this context, due to the impossibility to re-­‐conduct the original research process in order to validate some specific interpretations, the thesis will exclude or marginalize any interpretations (even academic) that might seem flawed or inadequate. 4 I.5: Thesis organization The study consists of five chapters. The introductory chapter will refer to the background of the study, will present to the objectives and aims of the study while identifying the theoretical and practical contributions of the thesis and pointing out the methodology and data used within the research process. Chapter Two forms the theoretical canvas for the research, and attempts to place the thesis within a broader academic spectrum, in order to illustrate the analytical frameworks as defined by two dominant theoretical lenses in International Relations and two theories of Foreign Policy Analysis. In this context, the chapter endeavours to identify what might be defined as the analytical pillars used for the rest of the text, namely the concepts of security, sovereignty and identity respectively. Chapter Three builds on the insights garnered in the previous chapters and analyses Romania’s foreign policy exercise in several Eastern files of relevant importance: USSR/Russia, Moldova, Ukraine, Central Asia, Southern Caucasus, Turkey, China, Greater Middle East, etc. In this context, it will argue that the ways in which the country managed its security, sovereignty and identity in the post-­‐Cold war period, mutated into a paradigm shift of foreign policy making which – in its turn – led to alignment mutations in the state’s diplomatic praxis. Moreover, the chapter investigates the endogenous and exogenous factors that instituted the state’s behavioural dynamics in the international environment between 1989 and 2010. Chapter Four will place theory and history in close connection in order to uncover the mechanics responsible fro the country’s foreign policy trajectories and alignments, by employing the analytical power of the theoretical approaches in several case studies. Chapter Five contains the study’s conclusions, and attempts to draw the various theoretical and practical strands together in an integrated whole. It points out the implications thereof for academics but also for practitioners of international relations. II. THEORY SYNOPSIS – LITERATURE REVIEW Either the typology or classification, Realism is probably the most widely known IR theory, often conflated with the idea of rationality in international political behaviour and equally associated with concepts like geopolitics, balance of power, Realpolitik (a term coined by Germany’s Chancellor Otto von Bismarck 1871-­‐
1890 meaning ‘politics of reality’), raison d’état (a term coined by the Cardinal Armand Jean du Plessis de Richelieu during the Thirty Years War (1618-­‐1648), and whose complex meaning involves concepts as overarching national goals, national interests, or national ambitions. At the theoretical core the of the anarchical and geometrically fragmented Realist landscape lies power, conceptualized as some sort of a mythical energy of creation and destruction and therefore sought by all actors. However, despite the catalytic role of the pursuit for power in the Realist school of thought, in particular the motivations that determine states to seek power split the camp into several distinct typologies or denominations. Following the cognitive path of different motivations, John Mearsheimer -­‐ a leading figure of Realism – groups the adherents of this theoretical approach into Classical and Structural Realists by employing a simple method of selection: their answer to the question ‘Why states want power?’ (2007:72). For Classical Realists like Hans Morgenthau (1948) the answer lies in human nature, because, in their vision, ‘everyone is born with a will to power hardwired into them’ (Mearsheimer, 2007: 72) and the struggle for 5 achieving it occurs both at domestic and international level (the difference consisting in magnitude and in ritualization). Power, in Classical Realism, is conceived as the only element which can ensure the states’ physical survival and security and which can protect them from becoming subservient to the will of others or to lose their prosperity. The result of this intersection of perceptions and needs makes the competition for power accumulation a natural state of affairs in international politics. In contrast, for Structural Realists – human nature has little to do with why states want power. Instead, argues Mearsheimer, ‘it is the structure or architecture of the international system that forces states to pursue power. In a system where there is no higher authority that sits above the great powers, and where there is no guarantee that one will not attack another, it makes eminently good sense for each state to be powerful enough to protect itself in the event it is attacked’ (2007:72). The conceptualization of power is equally distinct: if for Classical Realists, power is an end in itself, for Structural Realists, power is a only the means to an end and the ultimate end is survival. Furthermore, unlike Classical Realist multidimensionality, Structural Realism is characterized by a bi-­‐
dimensional systemic infrastructure whose exerted pressure determines the types of actions between the uni-­‐dimensional, rational, unitary, abstract and characterless units of which the system is comprised. The bi-­‐dimensionality of the Neo-­‐Realist systemic construction is structurally generated by the seminal intersection of the vectors of anarchy and distribution of power. The ‘self-­‐help’ nature of the international system, determines the uni-­‐dimensional actors of the Neo-­‐Realist realm to seek power, conceptualized as the only means to ensure their security. The Structural Realist denomination is however far from being a monolithic construction. In particular, there is a significant divide among its adherents, mainly reflected – in Mearsheimer’s opinion – in the answer to a second question that concerns realists: how much power is enough? (2007:72). Defensive realists like Kenneth Waltz (1979), Robert Jervis (1978, 1999), Stephen Walt (1987, 1988, 2000), Jack Snyder 1991, Charles Glaser (1994/95), Stephen Van Evera (1999) capture the dynamics of the international politics with the dialectic mechanism of security dilemma, in which the attempts by one state to increase its security (the thesis) has the effect of decreasing the security of others (anti-­‐thesis). The synthesis spiral process of action reaction which will couple the perceptions of one actor’s own vulnerability with uncertainty about another actor’s actions and intentions and which can lead even defence-­‐oriented, status-­‐quo states to engage in arms races and conflict spiral. In addition, Defensive Structural Realists consider that states shouldn’t try to maximize their power assets, because in reaction, the system an “invisible” recalibration force of the system will try to bring the balance back. The pursuit of hegemony is foolhardy. The other Structuralist camp, Offensive Realists like John Mearsheimer (2001) ‘take the opposite view; they maintain that it makes good strategic sense for states to gain as much power as possible and, if the circumstances are right, to pursue hegemony. The argument is not that conquest or domination is good in itself, but instead that having overwhelming power is the best way to ensure one’s own survival’ (Mearsheimer, 2007: 72) The Realist denomination with the clearest focus on hegemonic stability is Rise and Fall Realism which centres on the idea that practices and rules of the international system are confined to the set of values, preferences and interests of the ‘most powerful members of the social system’ which succeed themselves as leaders in the realm of international politics (Gilpin, 1981: 9) In the logic of the expected utility mechanism, Rise and Fall Realism sees the raison d’être of the international system as ‘deriving from actors’ natural behaviour to enter social relations and create social 6 structures in order to advance particular sets of political, economic, or other types of interests’ (Gilpin, 1981: 9). International system is thus created by the intersection of the actors’ vectors of preference and therefore its structure and distribution of benefits will mimic the dominant pattern of interests of the current cycle of power. Unlike other Realist typologies, Rise and Fall Realism does not rely on the balance-­‐of-­‐power and on the static systemic polarity from the conceptual heritage associated with a (self-­‐defined) Realist tradition, but on the dynamics of the uneven or differential growth of power among states that are the main cause for conflict. In this section I will examine the core assumptions, theoretical constructions and perspectives of 6 different strands of the realist tradition (as defined by Elman and Elman 2002, 2003 and Elman 2008, see fig. 1.1) and, the texts of ancient and modern writers, contrast their ideas and explanatory mechanisms regarding the states’ behaviour in the international environment: Classical Realism, neo-­‐Realism, neoclassical, rise and fall, offensive structural and defensive structural Realism since, despite the shared pessimistic outlook about the continuity of inter-­‐group strife, each realist typology is rooted in different assumptions and provides different explanations for the causes of the state’s behaviour in the international environment. Classical Realism Neoclassical Realism Rise and fall Realism Neo-­‐Realism Offensive structural Realism Defensive structural Realism Figure II.1: Classification of the Realist typologies (from Elman 2008, 16) Constructivism is a theoretical perspective in the philosophy of social sciences (Guzinni, 2000) concerned on actor’s cognitive transactions and self-­‐awareness and their place in the international politics. By claiming that individual and society are mutually dependent and dynamically interwoven, Constructivism rejects rationalist theories’ material focus and argues that the international environment in which states act and interact is simultaneously social and ideational as well as material (Holsti, 2004: 19; Ruggie, 1998: 33) and that all three dimensions have an identical level of importance in the study of IR (Reus-­‐Smit, 2005: 196). Yet, springing from a broad portfolio of approaches, Constructivism does not constitute a monolithic perspective, but a flux of partially convergent theoretical streams flowing in the conceptual rift between rationalism and reflectivism. Thus, positioning itself within the spectrum of paradigms on a theoretical dimension situated between the rationalist and reflectivist accounts, Constructivism aspired to seize this ‘middle ground’ (Adler, 1997: 321, Risse, 1999: 1) by constructing a via media through the interparadigmatic Third Debate (Wendt, 1999: 39 -­‐ 40) which will emerge as a common view for the understanding of the international politics. 7 As with Realism, in this section I will explore and identify the central tenets, core assumptions and mechanisms of the plurality of theoretical approaches to the study of IR, which, based on the common assumptions that reality and knowledge are socially constructed (Guzzini, 2000: 149) found a place under the broad conceptual umbrella of Constructivism. In addition I will try to classify the existent Constructivist variants and denominations through the use of ontological, epistemological, methodological and normative filters. Built upon an anthropomorphic structure – which allows the drawing of an analogy between societal individual and the states, Role Theory allows the import of various concepts, theoretical constructions and patterns from sociological and socio-­‐psychological theories into FPA and thus, empower analysts to open up the ‘black-­‐box’ of the state, in a period when the mainstream theories focused on Structuralist approaches. Although significantly overlapping with Social Constructivism, role theory could bring significant integration between FPA and IR, especially with the meta-­‐theory of constructivism (Thies, 2009: 36), through its focus on the domestic constituents and domestic definition of national role concepts. Therefore, in this sub-­‐chapter I will review and discuss the core-­‐concepts of the theory, both the ones articulated initially by Holsti like role performance, national role conceptions, role prescriptions and position (1979: 240) but also, the following theoretical upgrades that set the stage for future theoretical advancement of the Role Theory, like role enactment (role sets, role selection, role involvement and interrole conflict), role expectations, role demands, role location and audience. Moreover, I would also analyse the ontological recalibration of Role-­‐Theory from individualism to holism adopted by Elgstrom, Aggestam or Harnish who incorporated a structural dimension of roles – mentioned yet underdeveloped in Holsti’s original work (role perceptions). For instance, while Aggestam accounted both for the individual and for the structural sources of national roles (Aggestam 2006: 14-­‐18), Harnisch built upon the and idea emphasizing cognitive or institutional structures as ‘causes for certain roles and on the idea that roles are ‘embedded’ in certain social ‘orders/arrangements’ which in turn give meaning and reasons for specific action (2010: 3). Last but not least, the Decision Making Models are, in practice, three applicable conceptual constructions – which could be employed as analytical framework for understanding, analysing and refining the foreign policy actions and dynamics: the Rational Actor, Organizational Behaviour, and Governmental Politics models articulated by Graham Allison in its (1971) Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971) Allison – and significantly upgraded in the (1999) edition which he co-­‐authored with Phillip Zellikow. The main thesis of this theoretical approach is that – although it is highly impossible to come to a complete understanding of the situation and to a complete and accurate account of the non-­‐visible determinants that triggered the actions of an actor at a given moment – the employment of a theoretical portfolio that combines the three conceptual lenses will bring the scholars relatively close to the full awareness of all influential factors that shaped a certain decision in a certain historical moment. Since all models are based on a different level of analysis and each should be understood as a snapshot that captures only a certain ‘dimension’ of a complex multi-­‐layered picture, the employment of all three conceptual constructions is required in order to obtain a ‘closest-­‐to-­‐complete’ treatment of a policy case. As a result, by applying the models to a given case, I aim to build a substantiate framework for considering foreign policy actions, that would allow one to improve one’s understanding of a political situation by uncovering both proximate and adaptive elements of the decisions associated with the behavioural matrixes of various actors during a certain alignments. 8 III. The Eastern Dimension of Romania’s Foreign Policy 1989-­‐2010 III.1: Introduction Throughout its contemporary and modern history, Romania’s political, economical, institutional and cultural evolution can be defined as a continuous tale of reinvention involving constant and complex structural mutations tributary -­‐ to the most extent -­‐ to the constantly changing sources of exogenous hegemonic influence in the region (the Habsburg Empire, the Russian and the Ottoman Empires, the USSR, the Russian Federation, up to the nowadays EU). The successive exposure to the broad portfolio of antagonistic influences and to the subsequent normative collisions occurring from their political, cultural or social layering, together with its symbolic geographic positioning in the Eastern Europe – a paradoxical region ‘of simultaneous inclusion and exclusion, Europe but not Europe’ (Wolff, 1994:7) contributed to the development of a dichotomy between Romania’s main Byzantine ethos and its peripheral European self. As a result, Romania’s struggle to cope with its incomplete European identity lays at the very foundation of the state’s modern transformation process – which began with the political birth of the United Principalities of Wallachia and Moldavia (and later on with the United Principalities of Romania). Although a relatively successful attempt to solidify an European identity can be recorded during the time of the Kingdom of Romania (Great Romania) – mostly due to the institution of monarchy acting as a catalyst for Europeaness, the conflicting identity symptoms will make a successful comeback soon after World War II, during what i
might be conceptualized as Redivided Romania while reaching a significant magnitude in the time of Communist Romania. Post-­‐communist Romania of the early 1990s found itself in the process of developing a new European identity but arguably failed to escape the derogatory stereotype of its provincial Europeaness even after the country’s accession to the European Union in January 1st, 2007. For instance, the setting-­‐up of the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) aimed to help Romania and Bulgaria ‘remedy shortcomings in the area of judicial reform and the fight against corruption and to monitor progress in these areas’ acted as a conceptual Iron Curtain which split EU 27 into 25+2 in terms of a corruption identity in-­‐group, although – according to Transparency International Corruption Perception Index from the period 2007-­‐2010 – Romania’s (and Bulgaria’s) records of transparency and integrity were, in the given time-­‐frame, similar or even inferiour to those of Greece or Italy. Similarly, the labour force restrictions imposed to Romanian and Bulgarian workers, the EU’s subsequent reports on justice and internal affairs signling out Bucharest (and Sofia) as the laggards of the EU judicial system and the indigenous establishment(s) as key players in the low progress in the successful implementation of an EU anti-­‐corruption ethical and technical toolkit, or the more or less direct threats from Brussels regarding the activation of the safeguard clause (like for instance in order to enforce the adoption of the National Integrity Agency law), had a serious impact in deepening the ideational rift that placed Romania’s identity at the periphery of the European identity. In parallel with this process, the complex succession of geocultural and socio-­‐political cohabitation mutations fuelled the ideational expansion of both an overarching national interest notion and of an archetypal tradition of survival (see for instance Deletant, 1992; Gallagher, 2001: 87; Boia, 1997: 155-­‐156) that moulded the country’s foreign policy behaviour throughout time and whose collateral effect was the establishment of a relatively non-­‐monolithic perceptions over the right to exercise sovereignty. In this context, Romanian foreign policy between 1990-­‐2010 can be conceptualized as a by-­‐product of the country’s pursuit to obtain security guarantees and to enhance its economic prosperity, tributary to the 9 intersection of global and regional political vectors (Washington, Moscow, Brussels) and to the systemic recalibration that dominated the post-­‐Cold War international relations. As a result, Bucharest’s foreign policy dynamics are circumscribed to several structural mutations, materialized through certain dominant alignments converging from the state’s pursuit for certain foreign policy deliverables. III.2: Multi-­‐Layered invasively overlapped foreign policy files: USSR/Russia – Moldova – EU – US – WBA Under this frame of reference I have identified several major chronological trends in Romanian diplomatic matrix, which – although expressed under the form of a Washington -­‐ (Western Europe/Brussels) -­‐ Moscow axis – had – due to their significant invasive overlapping – a major role in the definition of the Eastern dimension of Bucharest’s foreign policy. More specifically, the (1990 – 1991) period was characterized by the regional and global geometry of insecurity and by a light Finlandization of Romania’s foreign policy, the (1991 – 1995) period involved a structural mutation from the inertia of Cold War institutions to the change of perspective towards West, the (1995 – 1996) period was characterized by what I defined as ‘the NATO aetiology of electoral dependencies in the US, Russian Federation and Romanian politics’. Moreover, the period (1996 – 2000) was conceptualized by a drive for security by politics of voluntary servitude, (2001 – 2004) by a foreign policy aimed at balancing the divergences between various epicentres of power, followed in the (2005 – 2007) by a diplomatic exercise tributary to the logic of the bifocal ‘suivisme’ – several processes like Europeanization, Americanization, Gazpromization and Black Sea Regionalism had a major impact on Bucharest foreign policy and finally by the period (2007 – 2010) when Bucharest foreign policy dynamics converged into filling the post-­‐EU accession foreign policy vacuum via regionalism, energy rivalries, peripheral perspectives and the exposure to Russia’s structural vulnerability. Together with the multi-­‐layered invasively overlapped foreign policy files, Romania’s foreign policy agenda tackled also a series of less invasive or non-­‐invasive (although more or less overlapped) files, like CIS countries (Ukraine, Central Asia, Southern Caucasus, China, Greater Middle East (Israel, Arab World, Iran, etc.). III.2.1 [1990 – 1991]: The geometry of insecurity and the light Finlandization of Romania’s foreign policy The external subversion theory of the revolution -­‐ a mental construction aimed to help a nominal group of persons involved in the bloodshed to escape any repercussions of the December deaths by transferring part of the guilt to unidefined exogenous actor(s). A reasonably acceptable hypothesis: during the 1989 events, Romania could have been targeted by intelligence activities or even active measures-­‐type of intelligence warfare, yet not to the extent that Soviet, American, French or Hungarian security services played the key role in the unfolding of the events. Between 1989-­‐1991 Romanian-­‐Soviet relations were circumscribed to an asymmetrical, allegedly colonial-­‐
like pattern of interactions, arguably as a by-­‐product of the new leadership’s endeavours to use the perception of the support given by the neighbouring superpower, in order to legitimize its actions and political preferences, to strengthen its control over the country and to act as a strong deterrent for possible manifestations of alleged Hungarian irredentism. The 1991 Romanian-­‐Soviet Treaty -­‐ articulated on the political backbone of the Kvitsinsky Doctrine -­‐ incorporated a famous ‘security clause’ which denied the right of the signatories to enter alliances 10 perceived as hostile by the other and was an expression of Kremlin’s expected utility preferences, coherently forcing Romania to enter a social relation and create a social structure in order to advance its particular sets of political, economic and military interests, thus to trigger a chain bandwagoning in order to place Eastern Bloc countries under a new security bloc – built upon the foundations of the defunct Warsaw Pact -­‐ under its leadership. Romania’s decision -­‐ a faux bandwagoning aimed to extract support from its patron (mostly in terms of security guarantees). Despite some vocal rhetorical and symbolical support along a pan-­‐Romanian discourse, rulers in Bucharest displayed ‘extreme caution’ on the subject of the Moldovan independence (Crampton, 1994: 452) and eventually stopped ‘short of supporting’ the nationalist movements within Moldova, in order not ‘to upset the Soviet Union, which was in the process of restructuring itself’ (Benishev, 2013: 29), a behaviour that led eventually to a dampening of the Moldovan pan-­‐Romanians’ initial enthusiasm (King, 1999: 146). By recognizing ‘the existing border’ between Romania and the URSS, the1991 treaty reinforced ‘the lack of overt support for Moldovan independence’. Bucharest’s hesitant behaviour towards Chisinau cannot be delinked by Romanian establishment’s fear of having to face ‘the risk of international isolation’ and a renunciation at a security alternative, in a moment when Romania’s aspirations for EU an NATO inclusion were part of a rather implausible scenario, given its ‘unstable relations with western institutions’, IMF, NATO or EU (Papakostas, 2009: 7). III.2.2 [1991 – 1995] From the inertia of Cold War institutions and to the change of perspective towards West NATO enlargement dynamics, its dissociation from Central European integration, West’s concessions towards Russia, Kremlin’s support for the de facto independence of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), possibly highlighting that it’s ‘geopolitical position was still being negotiated’ (Stoicescu, 2006: 176), had a complex influence on Bucharest’s rhetoric from 1993-­‐1994, to the extent it germinated into an alleged dual foreign policy focus, of a ‘double speak’ (Stoicescu, 2006: 175), of an ‘ambivalent policy’ (Soare, 2010: 98) or, as Tudoroiu defines it of some ‘politics of ambiguity’ (2008: 390-­‐391). By 1995 Romania began to genuinely follow a path towards West, because a Russia in disarray and with its economy spinning out of control, was unable to offer either political, either economical support to Bucharest. Moreover, Moscow’s impotence in the Yugoslav war, revealed that it was unlikely for Kremlin to act as a security provider for Romania in a possible conflict, like for instance with Budapest, a scenario which – in Washington – appeared as having a high degree of probability (Matyas, 1996: 47). The absence of real central authority attributes in the post-­‐Soviet Russia left Romania relatively dependent on the aid coming from the IMF, CEE and Western states (Tudoroiu, 2008: 391) in order to compensate the lack of reforms and in order to ensure macroeconomic stabilization. In the early 1990s Romania searched security options under the political umbrella of France which was strongly committed to deterring any Hungarian threats to Romania’s territorial integrity and thus taking seriously its commitment to become a ‘privileged advocate of Romania within the European structures’ (Pascu, 2007: 36). However, between 1994-­‐1995 Romania’s diplomatic exercise was tributary to a combination of three main processes: 11 •
the intensification of the administrative, bureaucratic and military meetings as a result of the country’s participation into the PfP •
the mutations that affected the country’s behavioural dynamics towards the parties involved in the Yugoslav crisis •
the relation with Russia, that was slowly staining reaching a climax during the abrupt ceasing of the negotiations over a bilateral interstate treaty in 1996. Pro-­‐West rhetoric of the Romanian administration, began to remove some doubts regarding the country’s alignment (Carothers, 1997), thus creating the proper climate for Romania to get involved in various cooperation actions with NATO members (Szonyi, 1997: 12, 23), although of rather peripheral impact in terms of military cooperation, in comparison to Poland, Hungary or Czech Republic -­‐ visibly sponsored by Germany in their race towards Western-­‐ensured security and thus wearing different labels of eligibility for NATO membership (Szayna and Asmus, 1995). III.2. 3 [1995 – 1996] The NATO aetiology of electoral dependencies in the US, Russian federation and Romanian politics Contrary to the relatively conventional beliefs stating that the role of foreign affairs doesn’t translate into electoral outcomes, NATO enlargement did play – in the period 1995-­‐1996 – a key role in the electoral mathematics of the incumbent presidents during US, Russian and Romanian Presidential elections. In this context, while Bill Clinton and Ion Iliescu tried to use NATO enlargement and the highly coherent attitudes and beliefs of pivotal voting blocks towards the process in order to enhance their electoral prospects, Boris Yeltsin attempted to reduce the issue to the status of a peripheral topic, unable to germinate into a disruptive element that will impact his re-­‐election bid. Among the foreign policy deliverables generated by the electoral mechanics were: the induced stalemate of the NATO expansion process itself (tributary to a Clinton-­‐Yeltsin matrix of dynamic compromises), the genuine alignment of Bucharest towards Washington (and, due to the still stuck in a Cold War mind-­‐warp of the Russian and Romanian elites, the gradual staining of the Romanian-­‐Russian relations) and last, but not least, the formalization of the Romanian-­‐Hungarian relations through the signing of a intestate treaty, that (at least temporarily) put an end to the high-­‐profile diplomatic crisis between the two states III.2. 4 [1996 – 2000] The drive for security and the politics of voluntary servitude The government efforts to secure NATO and EU membership – reached, in the period 1996-­‐2000 such a monopolizing magnitude, that it prevented the development of any other vectors of foreign policy. Romania’s foreign policy dynamics from the period 1996-­‐2000 was the direct by-­‐product of an altercasting process, with US/NATO and EU providing cues to elicit certain behaviour, therefore projecting a portfolio of identities and roles to be undertaken by Bucharest. Aware that Romania’s performance wouldn’t lead to fulfilling the necessary criteria for accession and that the accession would be a – in the end – the fruit of a political concession, Bucharest leadership accepted to circumscribe Romania’s behavioural dynamics to a policy of voluntary servitude in order to advance its institutional accession goals. A complex transition begins to take place in all sectors. A direct collateral effect of this situation was the degrading of the Romanian-­‐Russian relations – already encumbered by misunderstandings and political tensions over the issue of the Romanian treasury, sent in 12 1916 to Moscow for safekeeping, confiscated by the Bolsheviks and never returned (Cioculescu, 2009: 139) – to the extent that Russia began to express open animosity towards Bucharest’s transformation into what Soare defines as ‘an agent of NATO and EU principles, norms and values’ (2010: 100). III.2.5 [2001 – 2004] Balancing the divergences between various epicentres of power In the period 2000-­‐2004 – marked by severe transatlantic divergences – Romania’s behavioural dynamics were characterized by a complex balancing between the two Western epicentres of power, in what can be conceptualized as an acceptable prioritization of its foreign policy objectives: focusing on getting US support for its NATO candidature, despite the risk of alienating some EU states and possibly to jeopardize their sustenance for a non-­‐security related, longer-­‐term objective: EU accession The 2003 Romanian-­‐Russian treaty reveals Bucharest’s acceptance of a certain asymmetrical bilateral relation and the continuity of Russia’s tradition over the iron principle according to which ‘no concession is acceptable for Russia, but all the concessions are binding for its partners’ (Trandafir, 2011: 289). Romanian – Moldovan bilateral relation from that period was deeply linked with some big powers’ geopolitical interests in the region and tributary Chisinau and Bucharest’s different geo-­‐political perspectives (2006:1). III.2. 6 [2005 – 2007] The logic of the bifocal ‘suivisme’ and the impact of Europeanization, Americanization, Gazpromizationii and (Wider) Black Sea Regionalism on Romanian foreign policy EU integration continued to be the backbone of Romania’s foreign policy architecture, Bucharest’s diplomatic exercise from the period 2005-­‐2007 reveal no prominent structural mutations in relation to the previous political cycle, continuing to oscillate between the already established minimalist ‘suivisme’ of Brussels’s foreign policy perspectives and the proactive ‘voluntarism’ associated with its ‘NATO first’ perspective in terms of European security infrastructure. Although Romania – confined to its aspirant member status – was forced to download some EU perspectives and priorities – it assigned variable magnitude to their modelling force in the adaptation of its foreign policy and thus limited their materialization, in most cases, according to its own portfolio of preferences and identity ‘marked by cultural and historical biases’ for instance in the cases of Russia, Ukraine or Moldova (2012:157). Bucharest’s foreign policy deliverables and paramount designs in the Wider Black Sea Area were by-­‐
products generated by the Americanization (and to a peripheral extent by the Europeanization of the indigenous diplomacy and thus projections of Washington’s (and Brussels’) regional preferences and interests (into which Romania incorporated its own goals and aspirations in its anticipation to be rendered the main promoter of these interests), rather than indigenously articulated preferences. Romanian-­‐Russian relations evolved as an collateral effect of the structural mutations and overlapping patterns of interests that shaped the topography of the region and, to a certain extent, of the common denominator binding various energy groups with a high politics agenda from Russia, EU and US. Russia’s 13 hydrocarbon deficit and its policies of Schroederization and Gazpromization played a key role in the failure of Bucharest’s endeavours to implement imported US energy perspectives for the region. III.2. 7 [2007 – 2010] Filling the post-­‐EU accession foreign policy vacuum via regionalism, energy rivalries and peripheral perspectives and the exposure to Russia’s structural vulnerability Overestimating both Washington’s interest Europe – which was becoming of rather ‘subsidiary importance’ (Severin, 2012: 3) for an US preoccupied more about the spectral shift associated with the transition of the international system’s center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Pacific – but also EU member-­‐states’ commitments regarding solidarity in matters of energy supply and arguably encouraged by the political collisions that swept the Union following the gas disruption generated by the 2006 and 2009 Russian-­‐
Ukrainian gas disputes – Bucharest tried to upload its Americanized (and visibly anti-­‐Russian) energy perspective into NATO’s and EU’s institutional framework (energy NATO, etc). The cartelization and collusion of EU energy market, personal or group benefits, aspects of national prosperity and subsequent electoral effects (most of them linked with Russia’s Gazpromization policy) led -­‐ in some key EU capitals (Paris, Berlin, Rome or Amsterdam) – to a decreased appetite to antagonize Moscow over its energy policies and interests in the Caspian region and in Europe and therefore to the absence of any tangible deliverables for Bucharest which – stimulated by economical and political incentives – was trying to bandwagon with various US/EU regional stakeholders. In this period Bucharest began to develop a Romanian protectorate in Moldova, which – due to the collisions with Kremlin’s interests in the region – created new convulsions in Moscow. Not in the position to re-­‐engage into an aggressive project of national unification with Moldova (Csergo and Goldgeier, 2013: 115) it followed a policy of ‘consolidation in the Western organizations and security structures, also promoting regional cooperation projects’ (Milevschi, 2012: 164). III. 3 MULTI-­‐LAYERED NON-­‐INVASIVELY OVERLAPPED FOREIGN POLICY FILES III.3.1 Ukraine With only marginal exceptions, the architecture of the Romanian-­‐Ukrainian relations between 1989 and 2010 took the form of sinusoidal ups and downs, ranging from relatively often derailments, political disruptions to intermittent stances of rapprochement. Beyond the behavioural dynamics, the main foreign policy deliverables were in fact by-­‐products generated by dominant exogenous influences of the two states’ foreign policies and, to a lesser extent, by the succession of the domestic political regimes in the two countries. Moreover, in the period 1989 – 2010 the matrix of controversies suffered an important decrease on territoriality in favour of economical rivalries over Danube-­‐Black sea waterways or hydrocarbon reserves. 14 III.3.2 Turkey The major conclusion of the analytical rendition on Romanian-­‐Turkish relations is that most of the behavioural dynamics, foreign policy deliverables and paramount designs in which the two countries were involved – starting from Black Sea Regionalism and Caspian energy transport projects and culminating with the two countries endeavours to acquire a regulatory role in the region or to strengthen the political and security role of the Black Sea structures – were, to a high extent, tributary to the existence of a matrix of exogenously articulated influences, preferences and ascribed socialization patterns. Ankara’s growing uncertainties vis-­‐à-­‐vis its European aspirations and its discontent towards Washington, coupled with Romania’s voluntary servitude towards US’ regional interests and Turkey’s increased interest towards Russia’s endeavours in the Wider Black Sea Region, triggered relevant mutations in the articulation of Bucharest’s foreign policy outcomes, materialized through an upgrade of its role within the NATO. On another hand, the big differences on foreign policy – notably on US and Russia – have not prevented economic cooperation between Romania and Turkey. Ankara was from the mid till late 2000s Bucharest’s first non-­‐EU trade partner and a key export market for the indigenous industries (yet with the mention that Romanian companies often used Turkey as a re-­‐export hub for Iran, due to transport or payment related aspects triggered by the various restrictions and sanctions against Teheran).
III.3.4 China In the period 1989-­‐2010 Romanian-­‐Chinese relations were tributary – with the exception of a minimal interlude between 1992 and 1996 – both to the exogenous pressures exerted by one or more epicentres of power that imposed their hegemonic influence and preferences on Bucharest’s foreign policy dynamics and to Beijing’s policy of capital and trade fluxes reorientation throughout the analysed period. In particular, by 1996-­‐1997 the overstretched prevalence of NATO and – of even bigger extent – of EU accession process in Romania’s foreign policy monopolized Bucharest foreign policy resources to such extent, that only marginal and thus modest institutional capacities were left for the design and formulation of alternative diplomatic projects, outside those engulfed in the mainstream foreign policy frameworks drafted in Brussels or Washington. A key moment in the evolution of the bilateral relations was represented by Chinese president Hu Jintao’s visit to Bucharest, which acted as a catalyst for bilateral trade development (although severely unbalanced against Romania) and for the arguably aggressive expansion of Chinese investments in Romania in the form of manufacturing companies, that allowed Beijing to directly access EU market and, therefore to circumvent the extremely restrictive EU anti-­‐dumping legislation. In particular, despite Romania’s strategic partnership with the US and despite the fact that many of Bucharest’s foreign policy deliverables were extensions of Washington’s interests, Romania approached a relatively benign stand in report to the colliding interests between Beijing and Washington, in terms of political and commercial relations or in the issues of Taiwan and Tibet. III.3. 5 GREATER MIDDLE EAST III.3.5.1 Israel The topography of the Romanian-­‐Israeli relation in the period 1989-­‐2010 was tributary to the structural overlapping between endogenous elements (elite reproduction and not elite replacement that characterized post-­‐Revolutionary Romania and which led to the perpetuation of the foreign policy reflexes 15 and of the informal and formal networks and relations or the existence of a sensitive and influential Romanian Jewish community in Israel which was able to act as a catalyst for bilateral cooperation) and exogenous factors (NATO expansion, unipolarity and US behavioural dynamics in the Wider Black Sea Area and Greater Middle East). With Romania embarking on a Euro-­‐Atlantic path, the importance of Romanian-­‐Israeli relations raised exponentially in Bucharest’s agenda, with the successive regimes from Bucharest realizing that a positive relation with Jerusalem might abet its credentials on Capitol Hill and thus trigger important positive mutations in Washington’s perspectives and matrix of political interactions. A key role in this security equation was played, in this context, also by the Jewish Communities that acted as a transmission-­‐belt role in Romania’s quest to recalibrate its image and voice within the US Congress. The transformation of US’ state of mind in the aftermath of 9/11 to a foreign and defence policy perspective that resembled more to the one shaped by Israel and Romania’s unconditional support for Washington’s security designs, led to the development of a strong military and security cooperation between Bucharest and Jerusalem, whose magnitude sometimes transcended the level of the bilateral political relations. III.3.5.2 Arab World (Kuwait, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Yemen) and Iran The fall (and execution) of Ceaușescu during December 1989 riots and violence meant that the cardinal force that cultivated the pro-­‐Palestinian and pro-­‐Arab credentials and acted as the main catalyst for political and socio-­‐economic cooperation between Romania, Iran and the (non-­‐US alligned) Arab world, ceased to exist. Moreover, in the aftermath of the events, the new leadership – trying to exhibit democratic and European pedigree – oriented Romania’s trade fluxes towards convertible (mostly Western) markets and gradually renounced at the development of the indigenous oil, chemical and export-­‐oriented industries that supplied most of Romanian exports to developing countries. In this context, Bucharest found no incentives in pursuing privileged relations with the Arab world, despite of the fact that following the Ba’athist Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Romania established diplomatic relations with United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, states with an immense economic potential for absorbing Romanian imports. In general, by mid 1990s and till late 2000s, Romania’s behavioural dynamics towards the Arab World and Iran took place under the form of an altercasting process – implemented through institutional, organizational or legal means – through which Washington or EU provided Bucharest cues, norms and expectation to elicit certain behaviour. However, although politically, Romanian leadership aligned the country with US and EU articulated preferences and perspectives, in the economical realm, indigenous companies’ behaviour wasn’t necessarily circumscribed to the governmental rhetoric and actions. By 2006, faced with the perspective of EU single-­‐market pressures, Romanian government embarked itself a quest to resuscitate the latent relations with the Arab states from the Middle East and Iran. The materialization of these endeavours remained – despite some revamping of the bilateral trade fluxes – at a modest level for the next years, in comparison with the level they recorded in throughout the 1980s. 16 III.3.6 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) The analysis of the topography of Romania’s relations with the CIS states from Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) reveals the existence of asymmetrical geometries of cooperation, mostly fuelled (with the exception of Turkmenistan where the relation was to some extent a by-­‐product of the ‘Americanization’ of Romania’s foreign policy) by the nature and structure of domestic constituents of these countries. In this context, the relatively autonomous Kazakhstan evolved as Bucharest’s paramount partner in the Central Asia, with the energy sector and adjacent industry representing the backbone of the bilateral partnership, the hydrocarbon-­‐rich Turkmenistan as a possible strategic partner in Romania’s conceptualization of the EU energy architecture, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were left at the periphery of Bucharest’s diplomatic interests, while Uzbekistan ended up in some sort of a conceptual limbo between the two groups. On another hand, the analysis of the bilateral trade turnover reflected that, following Romania’s accession to the EU, trade flows originating from or directed to Central Asia began generally manifested a positive trajectory, highlighting a certain level of consolidation of Romania’s foreign policy in report to the European Union’s strategic perspective towards Central Asia. During first years following Azerbaijan’s declaration of independence – marked by the military conflict from Nagorno-­‐Karabakh and by a recessionary period of the Azerbaijani economy – the new Bucharest establishment’s affinities with Russia and Armenia, and its governmental policy of minimal political involvement with states situated in non-­‐neighbouring regions of dissolution, kept Baku at the periphery of Romania’s foreign policy agenda. Between 1995 and 2010 Romania and Azerbaijan signed over 50 bilateral agreements, conventions and protocols, tackling a plethora of topics, from sectorial cooperation to strategic partnership. Romanian – Azerbaijani security relations have developed along US-­‐led path, in the sense that both countries actively participated in US-­‐led NATO missions in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq and provided the coalition forces over-­‐flight, refuelling and landing rights for aircrafts bound for Afghanistan and Iraq while directly participating with troops in the theatres of war from Afghanistan and Kosovo. Moreover, Romania has been a strong advocate of Baku’s future membership within NATO, with which Azerbaijan developed an Individual Partnership Action Plan since 2004. Furthermore, as of January st
1 , 2009, Romania has taken over from Turkey the mandate for NATO Contact Point Embassy (CPE) in Azerbaijan, later being awarded also the 2011-­‐2012 and 2013-­‐2014 periods as well. Despite of a relatively intense political interaction and of overall good political relations, Romanian-­‐
Armenian bilateral relations did not produce the expected results in the economic sphere – as the divergent institutional and security perspectives severely hindered the bilateral cooperation. In particular, while Romania embarked on a Euro-­‐Atlantic path and focused its political and economic fluxes towards states sharing the same perspectives, Armenia opted for an organic partnership with Russia and joined Russian-­‐
led CSTO security alliance. Moreover, Armenia’s foreign policy rhetoric and actions – mainly coordinated with Russia’s interests and influence (Poghosyan, 2011: 196) – and its positions in international and even regional structures (including the Black Sea Cooperation frameworks) – being either coincidental, either close with Moscow’s own positions eventually lead to the isolation of Armenia in an ‘increasingly globalized’ Southern Caucasian region (Mirzoyan, 2010: 53) and thus in the creation of an economic rift between Bucharest and Yerevan. For Romania – which throughout 2000s enjoyed privileged relations with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey – the importance of the Armenian equation stayed roughly at rhetorical level and this only because of the 17 relatively positive perception of the Armenians in the Romanian psyche and more or less tributary to the influential yet small Armenian community in Romania. In this context, although Armenia’s commitments to closer relations with NATO and the political accomplishments of the Armenian diaspora in the US, which – at least formally – managed to ‘anchor’ Yerevan to the conceptual ‘hydrocarbon heaven’ of the Southern Caucasus, generated strong echoes in Bucharest, the political and economic materialization of the Armenian-­‐Romanian relationship was significantly inferior to Bucharest’s relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey or Georgia. Since late 1990s and till late 2000s, Romanian-­‐Georgian relations became a by-­‐product of the bilateral relations of both states with US and Russia, shaped by the mutations of the national interests during a systemic reorientation of the international relations context. On one hand, frustrated that the renewed alliance with Kremlin did not lead to the reintegration of the secessionist provinces to Georgia and that the economy of the country – although made some important progress on basic market reforms – was still far from reaching a self-­‐supporting, sustainable growth and prosperity, Shevardnadze began, by the end of 1990s, to distance Tbilisi from Moscow (refusing to renew its CSTO membership, replacing Russian border guards with Georgian troops and retracting its agreement to host Russian military bases). Moreover, Washington Administration’s 2003 National Security Strategy stating that US energy security and global prosperity would be strengthened by expanding the numbers of hydrocarbon suppliers, including those in the Caspian region – which eventually led to the transformation of the Black Sea into an strategic energetic hub stimulated the bilateral relations between Tbilisi and Bucharest. The advert of pro-­‐American and visibly anti-­‐Russian presidents Basescu and Saakashvili in the two countries created a new openness at the level of political dialogue. The main result of this situation materialized through Georgia and Romania’s vocal support for energy transport initiatives aimed to bypass Russia (and Iran) – in which they tried to secure themselves a transit role (Georgescu, Munteanu et al., 2012: 283) and thus to reduce their dependency on Russian energy exports – like the US endorsed Baku-­‐Tbilisi-­‐Ceyhan corridor and the larger Trans-­‐Caspian projects (with an emphasis on Nabucco) and which became the core of their foreign energy strategies. However, with Nabucco entering in a political and economic limbo, in 2010 – Bucharest and Tbilisi, together with Baku signed the memorandum that shaped the legal framework for the development of the AGRI project, which envisaged the envisaged construction of two terminals for liquefied natural gas -­‐ one in Georgia, another in Romania and worked towards its materialization. Moreover, Romania became the leading voice in supporting Georgia’s European Integration and Euro-­‐
Atlantic aspirations, creating – together with Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Sweden and Slovakia – the New Group of Georgia’s friend to assist Tbilisi both in these endeavours and its quest to solve the conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. During NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit Romania fully backed up the arguments put forward by the US for the membership of Georgia and despite the lack of support from various EU countries, mainly France and Germany, not eager to provoke Russia in any way (Weaver, 2013: 18) and which arguably fuelled the August 2008 South Ossetian war. Following Georgian-­‐Russian war from 2008, Romania aligned itself with NATO and EU in not openly condemning Kremlin for its military intervention on Georgian territory, sent the biggest team of observers in the EU Civil Monitoring Mission in Georgia (Georgescu, Munteanu et al., 2012: 283) and pledged for granting MAP status to Tbilisi in the Lisbon NATO Summit from 2010. Moreover, following the events in Georgia, Romania sent to Tbilisi humanitarian aid amounting to approximately EUR 1.2 million, mainly consisting in medical supplies from the State Reserve, medicine and medical equipment from the reserves of Romanian Ministry of Public Health, airlifted by a carrier provided by Romanian Ministry of Defence. Of note, as by virtue of its EU membership – Romania must contribute 0.17% of its GNI to development 18 assistance – Bucharest has chosen Tbilisi, together with Belgrade and Chisinau as recipients of Romanian assistance (Marin, 2013:3). With the domestic dynamics in the post-­‐1989 Afghanistan revealing exacerbations of sectarianism, Islamic extremism and ethnic cleansing and with the civil war being used as an instrument for territorial reunification and centralization in a state that lacked any institutional framework for allowing bilateral political dialogue, Romania’s relations with Afghanistan throughout the 1990s and early 2000s were basically inexistent. Subsequently, the rise of Taliban, the clashing interests of the regional powers (Iran, Pakistan, Central Asian states), the hard-­‐core Islamisation of Afghanistan and the high degree of ruralisation, offered no incentives fro Bucharest to reconsider its alignment. Romania’s interest with Afghanistan came as a collateral effect of its role in US foreign policy dynamics in the post 9/11 period. IV. Case Studies By placing data and theory in close proximity -­‐ this section aims to uncover the mechanisms, the logic, the reasoning and the details that determined or accompanied Romania’s behavioural patterns in some specific international situations. In this context, the analysis will invoke the employment of the theoretical approaches presented in the first section of the paper, a selection that has the potential to capture the mentioned key aspects that could render fine-­‐grained answers to various questions regarding the state’s international alignment in a particular contextual stance. The chosen case study topics were: Romanian – Soviet treaty of 1991 (I), Romania’s decision to act as ‘a de facto NATO ally’ in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks (II) and Romania’s decision not to recognize Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence (III) V. Conclusions The major conclusion of this analytical rendition on the Eastern dimension of Romania’s foreign policy, is that – with the exception of the period 1989-­‐1995 when Romania’s foreign policy relations were circumscribed to an inertial matrix of cooperation – from 1995 and until 2006, Bucharest had no coherent foreign policy towards East and all existent interactions and alignment were in fact by-­‐products of the overstretched prevalence of NATO and EU accession processes in Romania’s diplomatic exercise. The main factors that led to this situation were, on one hand, the monopolization of Romania’s foreign policy resources by the European and Euro-­‐Atlantic integration processes – which left only marginal and modest institutional capacities for the design and formulation of other diplomatic projects – and on another, the fact that Washington and Brussels imposed an altercasting socialization pattern to Bucharest, by providing cues to elicit a certain behaviour and by ascribing it roles, identities and ways of conduct that were congruent with their interests, goals and perspectives. The focus on the political topography revealed that the altercasting process was projected either directly – through bilateral interactions – either indirectly through sets of institutional, normative, legal, organizational or technical interfaces (life PfP, MAP, IMF and World Bank Agreements, acquis communautaire, etc.). On another hand, after 2006 – when Romania’s EU accession was about to be materialized – Bucharest’s behavioural dynamics towards East manifested a superior consistency, yet not in the form of a new cardinal projection of a lucid foreign policy strategy, but roughly in the sense of a marginal revamping of the country’s relations with its former trade partners from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia – which gradually went into some sort of a conceptual limbo, during the 1990s. 19 However, despite the positive trends recorded in the resuscitation of the bilateral cooperation, from 2007 and until 2010 – when the state was able to use superior institutional capacities for the articulation of new diplomatic vectors towards East, but also to upload national preferences into EU’s foreign policy framework – all of Bucharest’s foreign policy deliverables and paramount designs – starting from Black Sea Regionalism and Caspian energy transport projects aimed to bypass Russia and culminating with Romania’s endeavours to acquire a regulatory role in the region or to strengthen the political and security role of the Black Sea structures, by promoting a ‘political umbrella’ model under the form of the Black Sea Forum – were in fact were by-­‐products generated by the ‘Americanization’ (and to a peripheral extent by the ‘Europeanization’ of the indigenous diplomacy and thus projections of Washington’s (and, minimally, of Brussels’) regional preferences and interests (into which Romania incorporated its own goals and aspirations in its anticipation to be rendered the main promoter of these interests), rather than indigenously articulated preferences. A major advancement made by the thesis in the study of Romania’s foreign policy towards East is represented by recalibration of the existent analytical framework by engulfing bilateral interactions in a multi-­‐layered and sometimes overlapped matrix of foreign policy processes, especially when some of those had a highly invasive dimension. In practice, this germinated into the analysis of Soviet/Russian, Moldovan or Wider Black Sea Area foreign policy files, not through an independent revision of the bilateral interactions, but through the entangled endosymbiosis between them and other foreign policy files (like NATO, EU, US, Balkans or Hungary), on a case-­‐to-­‐case basis and which managed to render fine-­‐grained explanations of Romania’s behavioural patterns towards East, even in the absence of visible, congruent matrixes of interactions between actors. Among the conclusions highlighted by the remodelling of the analytical architecture, is the structural mutation of Romania’s competitive nationalism towards Moldova – from a relatively intrusive targeting of Moldovan nationhood with an aggressive policy of unification, to a quiescent and concealed unionist project, articulated in the more neutral framework of European integration. In short, as a result of to the ‘Europeanization’ of its foreign policy’s behavioural dynamics, Bucharest’s nationalism suffered a significant decrease in territoriality in favour of nation-­‐building through the employment of kin state policies (foreign aid, benefit laws and citizenship policies), articulated by other EU member states. Of note, however, is that although the means were ‘Europeanized’ the policy itself – allowing an important number of non-­‐EU citizens to bypass the restrictive EU legislation – was nevertheless ‘non-­‐European’. Another significant finding of the research, is that it severely challenged the orthodox image of the Russian Federation and namely that of a superpower making use of its energetic weapon in order to advance allegedly neo-­‐imperialist ambitions or in order to implement punitive or rewarding policies towards various states into the one of an extremely vulnerable state posing as a big power, forced to carry out neo-­‐
Brezhnevist policies of ‘Gazpromization’, ‘Schroederization’ and ‘Restoration’ in order to veil its structural, economic and security weaknesses, to ameliorate them and to project and define itself as an ascending superpower into an envisaged multipolar geometry (see Roth, 2010). In this context, the thesis claimed that Kremlin’s hydrocarbon deficit – generated by the fact that the Russian energy extraction sector reached a plateau level both in oil and gas production and by the lack of funding to seriously develop alternative projects – forced Moscow to operate not from a position of an energetic superpower, but from a position of incertitude, which generated aggressiveness as an organic reaction of its and its establishment survivalist goals. The analysis of Romania’s foreign policy through a the conceptual lenses of a multi-­‐layered matrix of overlapped foreign policy processes, unveiled the existence of an aetiology of (electoral) dependencies which had significant foreign policy outcomes in Romania’s diplomatic exercises. Among these, variables like the active umbrella organizations of the American-­‐Hungarian community (especially those established 20 by the ‘Fiftysixers’), the vocal pro-­‐Hungarian caucus in the US Congress, Clinton’s decision not to expose Yeltsin to any NATO-­‐related disruptions during the latter’s electoral campaign in exchange for Kremlin’s supportive behaviour towards NATO-­‐Russia dialogue framework and Individual PfP or the impact of the sizeable Polish-­‐American voting block, representing 10% of the overall US electorate situated in the swinging Midwestern states, had a relatively high impact in the recalibration of Bucharest’s foreign policy. On another hand, the thesis revealed an interesting finding: Romania’s positioning towards Kosovo’s declaration of independence was the by-­‐product of an expected differential growth of power in the Black Sea Region (in the post George W. Bush era) and thus, through implications, an important means through which Romania advanced its GME and WBSA policies and responded to the dynamics of the power relations in these regions. Moreover, the thesis unveiled that Romania’s overall drive for security and welfare was responsible for the politics of voluntary servitude from the 1996-­‐2000 period, for the balancing between EU and US between 2000 and 2004 and for the ‘bifocal suivisme’ from 2005-­‐2007, as it acted as a catalyst for exogenous altercasting, a process through which EU and US attributed Romania certain roles, or identities, while communicating their behavioural expectancies through institutional, diplomatic, attitudinal or rhetorical cues. Among the individual by-­‐products of these processes are Romania’s bilateral relations with Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia or Afghanistan and, to a lesser extent the relations with the states from the Greater Middle East and China. By placing data and theory in close proximity – the analytical section of the thesis – investigated the mechanisms, the logic, the reasoning and the details that determined or accompanied Romania’s behavioural patterns in some specific international situations: the Romanian-­‐Soviet treaty of 1991, Romania’s ‘de facto NATO member’ alignment in the aftermath of 9/11 and Romania’s position towards Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence. Tributary to the belief that the existent split between FPA and IR Theory is to a large extent artificial being triggered by the different ontological and epistemological preferences of the two differences (the agent-­‐
structure debate or individualism-­‐holism – as reflected in the works of Kubalkova (2001) and Hudson’s (2005) – the thesis managed to substantiate that through a conceptual overstretching that would diminish the normative pitfalls and theoretical flaws of their anthropomorphic fallacy, IR theories can be used in order to explain foreign policy dynamics. The limitations of the theoretical constructions considering states as agents and not as structures can be overcome in order to unveil complex causal mechanisms. In this context, organizational, institutional, socialization and behavioural theories managed to provide interesting and compelling explanations as to why or how it was possible for a certain pattern of interactions to occur at a given moment. For instance, the explanations for Romanian-­‐Soviet Treaty of 1991 ranged from a coagulation of a cooperative framework determined by dictates of interest and power or as an alliance formation – triggered by the invisible recalibration force of the system in the last moments of the bipolar world (Neo-­‐
Realism), as a by-­‐product of the proximate threat determinant and thus as a way to obtain security guarantees in order to alleviate a Hungarian threat to its territorial integrity or as a faux bandwagoning through which Romania tried to extract greater support from its patron rather than to switch sides (Defensive Realism), as a method to ‘buy time’ in order to mobilize resources to contain the aggressors that populated the realm (Offensive Realism) or as an expression of Kremlin’s expected utility preferences, coherently forcing Romania to enter a social relation and create a social structure in order to advance its particular sets of political, economic, or other types of interests (Rise and Fall Realism). 21 Moreover, the treaty episode could be theoretically seen as a political outcome shaped by systemic forces and filtered through the transmission belt of the relevant domestic actors in the logic of the balance of interests or as a means through which Moscow aimed to trigger a chain bandwagoning reactions in order to place Eastern Bloc countries under a new security bloc under its leadership (Neo-­‐Classical Realism), as the result of Romania’s aversion towards its inclusion of a buffer-­‐zone in the context of a diachronic concept of keeping Soviet Union out of Europe, as a manifestation of its security perceptions tributary to the construction of Bucharest’s self-­‐identity in relation to the conceived identity of the Kremlin, Hungary and the West, or as a Russian response to a learned identity arguably generated by prior systemic victimization (Constructivism), as an expression of Romania’s coding and development of its lurker NRC and of Hungary’s, US and West (with the exception of France) role prescriptions (Role Theory) and last but not east, as the result of Bucharest’s maximized utility preference in ensuring the state’s territorial status-­‐quo in the absence of any other realistic opportunity, like NATO or WEU, as the predictable output distilled from pre-­‐
established routines, budgetary limitations, organizational learning, goals and their prioritization and SOPs, or as a process germinating from the viewpoints, opinions and desires of individual elites and their social networks (Decision Making Models Theory). In the same theoretical framework, the ‘9/11’ case study can be conceptualized as a behavioural matrix responsive to the dynamics of structural pressures and thus expected to generate systemic rewards (Neo-­‐
Realism), as the expression of the search for an offshore source of security in order to balance against the occurring threat deriving from Russia’s shift from a defence-­‐dominant stand to an offense-­‐dominant position in early 2000s or as a behaviour determined by systemic pressures yet also tributary to domestically generated preferences (Defensive Realism), as a form of buck-­‐passing the burden of balancing Russia to US-­‐led military organization or as a balancing manifestation through alliance formation (Offensive Realism), as a reflection of Bucharest’s quest for obtaining security deriving from domestic constituents’ interests and perspectives and as a way through which Bucharest aimed to exploit its ‘advantage of backwardness’, in the sense of benefiting from a diffusion of economic and military technologies from NATO, and thus to contribute to the regional redistribution of power and to rise as a regional challenger and to arguably develop its own spheres of influence (Rise and Fall Realism). Analysed through the Neo-­‐Classical Realist conceptual lenses, ‘9/11’ was translated as a decision to bandwagon with the US due to the fact that such alignment was perceived as the ‘wave of the future’ by the indigenous leadership and because by 2001 Romanian establishment was allowed to extract important resources in order to follow a NATO-­‐first foreign policy path, but also because it followed the logic of an established path-­‐dependency conceptualization. In addition, other theoretical perspectives revealed the episode as a way to mediate an identity change through the reproduction of the actions of the older members of the organization (Constructivism), as a process of altercasting, through which US projected an identity and roles to be assumed by NATO candidate countries, congruent with Washington’s interests and goals (Role Theory), or as a coherent behaviour selected by the government to maximize the actor’s ‘strategic goals and objectives’, as a constrained behaviour delineated by NATO’s organization’s program, routines, informal and formal charters, goals and procedures, ascribed to Romania through PfP and MAP or as a capture of a relatively monolithic governmental decision (Decision Making Models Theory). Last but not least, Romania’s alignment towards Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence could be understood as coherent balancing triggered by the fact that international organizations, values, rules and regulations have no binding dimensions for the big powers, which are the ones that dictate them and bend them whenever it suits their interests, sovereignty making no exception from the rule (Neo-­‐Realism), as a malfunction of the existent structural architecture populated by status-­‐quo states and a reflection of the fact that although in certain cases, particular groups might escape the dilemma such an escape is not universally possible (Defensive-­‐Realism), as the reaction of as a status-­‐quo state that seeking to defend the 22 current favourable distribution of capabilities and to prevent the accumulation of power by Hungary (Offensive Realism) or as a position of Romanian leadership’s perspective regarding a differential growth of power in its regional subsystem, through an expected US decline (Rise and Fall Realism). Furthermore, the Kosovo issue can be explained as a form of rational ‘underbalancing’ and as a manifestation of Bucharest’s jackal conceptual backbone (Neo-­‐Classical Realism), as a variation of Wendt’s security dilemma and thus of a social structure composed of intersubjective understandings in which states are so distrustful that they make worst-­‐case assumptions about each others' intentions, and as a result define their interests in self-­‐help terms’ (Constructivism), as a reflection of an interrole conflict between several positions requiring contradictory role enactments (Role Theory) as the result of expected utility maximization, as the result of pre-­‐established standard operating procedures and thus against any changes that would be rendering the Helsinki status-­‐quo and its territorial guarantees insufficient for a state’s security or as a failure of the ‘Europeanized’ elites to mitigate their European values In the political haggle against the inertial, security oriented political forces (Decision Making Models Theory). Engaging the methodological instruments employed by the IR and FPA body of literature, the research managed to trace important explanations and to render fine-­‐grained understandings of Romania’s behavioural dynamics in the three case studies, and although none of the theories was able to generate compelling individual accounts for all three situations, the chosen interplay of analytical tools allowed the thesis to identify structural, domestic, perceptual and notional mutations associated with the actor’s actions or alignment deriving from the conceptual overlapping of the empirical, rational, sociological or psychological content within a multi-­‐layered interpretational matrix. The inclusion of IR theories into the research process allowed the analysis – despite the anthropomorphic limitations of Neo-­‐Realism, Offensive Realism and Constructivism and group-­‐agenture conceptualization of Rise and Fall Realism – to explore important dimensions that offered extremely complex accounts of the international interactions, by introducing structural mechanisms and systemic recalibration processes into the orthodox interaction frameworks of FPA, while the less known Structural Defensive Realism and Neo-­‐
Classical Realism theoretical approaches proved to be – due to their conceptualization of the domestic constituents as the transmission belt through which systemic pressures are filtered in order to generate foreign policy outcomes – important explanatory alternatives that could be employed in foreign policy analysis to the detriment of the theories populating this academic realm. Last, but not least, in order to analyse Romania’s behavioural pattern through the conceptual lenses of the IR and FPA theories, I have updated the selected analytical toolkit with a new theoretical NRC concept circumscribed to the Role Theory’s sets of assumptions, propositions and values (the lurker NRC) and – with the aim to at least partially answer to Zehfuss (2002) criticisms of the theory – I have tweaked the pre-­‐
determined identity construction process of Alexander Wendt’s Social Constructivism by highlighting that the conceptualization of identity as a multi-­‐layered construction is an ideational construction that could offer a better account of identity change than the idea of a portfolio of role identities and by substantiating that identity acquiring could take place also through transitivity, not only through direct interaction between self and other. 23 REFERENCES 1.
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As under the 1947 Treaty of Paris the Allies did not acknowledge Romania as a co-­‐belligerent nation – despite its war contribution against the Axis in the period August 23, 1944 May 12, 1945 – the country was eventually restored to the borders of January 1, 1941, with the exception of the border with Hungary, which was reverted to its pre-­‐World War II status quo. This confirmed the 1940 loss of its former provinces of Bessarabia, Hertza and Northern Bukovina (thus of an area of 2
50,762 km ) to the Soviet Union but also the provisions of the Treaty of Craiova, which returned Southern Dobrudja to Bulgaria (and which put an end to the roughly 27 years of colonization endeavours of Bucharest). Under these circumstances, the pan-­‐Romanian hinterland established by the 1918 Union, was once again redivided. ii
Gazpromization denotes a complex doctrine and behavioral dynamics employed by Russian Administration during Putin and Medvedev eras, with both local and externalized dimensions. While local Gazpromization involved an aggressive acquisition of private Russian assets through state owned companies and the removal of foreign companies from the national extraction sector, externalized Gazpromization – mentioned above – is circumscribed to a convoluted portfolio of manifestations, tributary to the place of the implementation and namely if within or outside Russia’s ‘near abroad’. In the case of EU states, Gazpromization mainly consists in obtaining political concessions for Moscow’s policies and behavioural dynamics, through the exploitation of the focus on profit maximization and market strengthening of the EU energy holdings with a hidden power politics dimension, which can exert an important influence at any level of the indigenous administration. In some cases, it also incorporates the acquisition by Russian entities of share packages at energy companies managing or owning energy infrastructure, deposits, port infrastructure or distribution networks. In the case of CIS states or young democracies Gazpromization implicates the exploitation of the target-­‐state’s energetic vulnerabilities or of Moscow’s direct control of the indigenous energy infrastructure in order to interfere with the local politics by favouring some elites with the aim of being conceded or granted various economic or political benefits. The political recalibration process often relies on a structural atopy within the indigenous political realm (a strong corruption network which can be developed or adjusted and/or a strong ex-­‐Soviet intelligence infrastructure which can be easily activated or resuscitated). Schroederization is a variant of Gazpromization, implemented in Germany and with the potential to be implemented in other states, consists in the coopting of a key political elite in an important position within a Russian state-­‐owned energy entity (or in an equation of energetic profit), with the aim for the elite to exert its political influence in order to crystalize a network of interests that would serve Moscow’s strategic interests in the development of a project, policy or specific foreign policy alignment. 45