IKB-DEF-MAR 16, 15 - Indicia Research & Advisory

Indicia Knowledge Brief
A Daily Assessment on Indian Defence and Internal/Homeland Security
March 16, 2015.
Primary aims of Indicia Daily Brief are two-fold. First, it distills infinite information into a
capsule form, thus saving precious time of its clients. Second, it tries to link micro-events
to larger strategic canvas through its analyses, thus providing support knowledge for
better understanding and decision-making.
Indicia Analysis of the Day
India has yet again emerged as the world’s largest buyer of weapons and
military equipment, accounting for some 15 per cent of all such
international imports, while Russia, despite losing monopoly over the
Indian defence market, continues to hold a dominant position as the
largest supplier for New Delhi.
Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar’s three-day visit to France and Germany
later this month in a last-minute bid to seek closure to $23-billion
Dassault Rafale fighter deal and an early works agreement with Areva on
the Jaitapur nuclear power project in return for critical “Make in India”
defence technologies and a joint venture for making large forgings for
civilian nuclear reactors.
The government is open to reviewing all cases of blacklisted defence
firms on merit and has partially lifted a ban on Tatra trucks as it prepares
a new policy that will allow foreign defence firms to legally hire agents,
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said.
I. National Defence and Security:
India emerges as world's largest arms importer, yet again:
India has yet again emerged as the world’s largest buyer of weapons and military
equipment, accounting for some 15 per cent of all such international imports,
while Russia, despite losing monopoly over the Indian defence market, continues
to hold a dominant position as the largest supplier for New Delhi. Saudi Arabia,
China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Pakistan, are the next four biggest
global importers. These trends have emerged from a report released by the
Sweden-based think-tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI). The assessment was done for a five-year period (2010-2014). Titled
‘Trends in international arms transfers’, it says India’s share in global imports
has increased by 140 per cent over the previous five-year bloc, 2005–2009,
indicating that New Delhi’s attempts to be self-reliant were not enough as more
and more sophisticated planes, warships and radars are procured from outside
“India’s imports were three times larger than those of either of its regional rivals
China and Pakistan. This contrasts with 2005–2009 when India’s imports were
23 per cent below China’s and just over double those of Pakistan,” The SIPRI
report said. In the period 2010–14, which is the basis of the latest report, Russia
supplied 70 per cent of India’s arms imports, the USA 12 per cent and Israel 7
per cent. Acquisitions from the US are a break with the recent past. During the
period studied by SIPRI, India procured fighter jets and Mi-17-V5 helicopters
from Russia; specialised transport planes, the C-130-J Super Hercules and the C17 Globemaster from the US; UAV’s and radars from Israel. The previous report
that studied the period 2009-2013 had said Russia supplied 75 per cent of the
equipment to India, while US and Israel had 7 per cent and 6 per cent sales. This
means Russia share of 70 per cent is a drop from earlier year, while the US and
Israel have grown. However, in a sign of an omnipresent threat, India’s
neighbour China is helping Pakistan, Bangladesh and Burma in ramping up
military prowess. China is now the third largest exporter of weapons ahead of
traditional manufacturers Germany, France and UK. Its biggest benefactors are
Pakistan, Bangladesh and Burma — all having a shared boundary with India and
could potentially cause trouble for New Delhi. The three countries accounted for
68 per cent of Beijing’s exports. New Delhi sees China’s exports to countries
around India as a part of its long-term strategy of having a ‘string of pearls’ — a
kind of military toe-hold in countries around India. Chinese exports of major
arms increased by 143 per cent between 2005–2009 and during the latest fiveyear block 2010-14. Its share of global arms exports increased from 3 to 5 per
cent, the report siad. The five biggest exporters in 2009-13 were the US, Russia,
China, Germany and France. The US and Russia remained by far the largest
exporters, accounting for 31 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively, of all global
trade. Pakistan, which is at the fifth spot of global importers, got 51 per cent of its
equipment from China and 30 per cent from the US. Gulf countries like the UAE
and Saudi Arabia are also adding numbers to their weapons, with the US and the
UK being the major suppliers.
Source: http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/india-emerges-as-world-s-largest-arms-importer-yetagain/54336.html
*
Jaishankar to visit France to better defence ties:
Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar leaves on a three-day visit to France and
Germany later this month in a last-minute bid to seek closure to $23-billion
Dassault Rafale fighter deal and an early works agreement with Areva on the
Jaitapur nuclear power project in return for critical “Make in India” defence
technologies and a joint venture for making large forgings for civilian nuclear
reactors. Jaishankar, who will visit both countries between March 25 and 27, will
get the groundwork done for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Paris (April
10-11) and Hannover (April 12-13). While India is looking towards skill
development and deepening of economic ties with Germany, the bilateral
relationship with Paris is centred on space, defence and strategic ties. Although it
is still early days with agreements work in progress, the finalisation of the deal
for 126 Rafale medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) and freezing of
technical parameters for the first two 1650 MW nuclear reactors with
manufacturer Areva is a distinct possibility as both countries are eager to push
their strategic relationship forward.
Source:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jaishankar-to-visit-france-to-better-defenceties/article1-1326756.aspx
*
Indigenous Military Trucks all set to replace Tatra Trucks in
next few years:
The government is open to reviewing all cases of blacklisted defence firms on
merit and has partially lifted a ban on Tatra trucks as it prepares a new policy
that will allow foreign defence firms to legally hire agents, Defence Minister
Manohar Parrikar said. The new Defence Procurement Policy (DPP), will lay
thrust on development of domestic defence industry and faster acquisition
process for the Indian Armed Forces. Asked about the new government’s policy
on blacklisted firms, Parrikar said, the “debarment principle” is also being
worked out and pointed out the basic principle is in the interest of the armed
forces. “So if I have to deal with a firm which does have some earlier colour on it,
it will based on merit,” Parrikar said in an interaction with journalists late last
night. He added that based on merit and necessity, the government can “consider
after proper verification, lifting the ban or restriction to a reasonable level”.
Explaining the process, he said the state-run BEML has been allowed to supply
spare parts for the Tatra trucks as long as it does not deal with the British
subsidiary of the company, which was banned by the UPA following a scandal.
“We have lifted the restricted ban for technical and purchases of spares from the
original company provided they have nothing to do with the people who have
been blacklisted,” he said. Parrikar pointed out that one should not just go by the
name Tatra as there are 3-4 companies which make the trucks. “The company
which has been banned is Tatra UK and we have permitted BEML to deal with
the original company which is owned by different people now,” he said, adding
the condition is that they should not have relations with “questionable
individuals”. “A restricted Non Objection Certificate has been granted to BEML,
because we do need for defence purpose Tatra vehicles. It has become critical for
certain applications,” he said.....
Source: http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.aspx?id=B4NOlfhj03E=
*
China plays down India's worry over growing sea clout:
Amid concerns over its growing assertiveness in South China Sea, China said
there was no "insecurity" as well as no restriction on the freedom of navigation
in the region. "The problem does not exist," Chinese Ambassador Le Yucheng
said referring to freedom of navigation and security in the resource-rich South
China sea. Describing it as a stable region, the envoy said South China Sea was
key for China's international trade. The envoy had words of praise for the Prime
Minister Narendra Modi, who he said had done remarkably well to lift India's
economy. "China, more than anyone else, is interested in ensuring security of the
waters. 70 per cent of Chinese goods come and go through the waters," he said.
Asked about the mentioning of the South China Sea dispute in the India-US joint
statement issued during President Barack Obama's visit in January, Le said China
took note of it and that there was no problem of security or any issue relating to
freedom of navigation in the region.....
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/china-plays-down-indias-worryover-growing-sea-clout/articleshow/46564341.cms
*
hearing in SC:
Army doctors' battle over sixth pay commission up for
In what may bring some relief to doctors serving as officers with the ministry of
defence, the Supreme Court has fixed for hearing on April 13, a petition that
seeks implementation of the sixth pay recommendation for them. A three-judge
bench of justices T S Thakur, R K Agrawal and R Banumathi did not agree to
postpone till May a petition filed by retired wing commander Dr A K Handa who
had moved the SC for the dues of doctors serving or retired from the army. More
than six years after the sixth pay commission recommended up gradation of the
scale of government doctors, pan-India nearly 6000 officers and pensioners of
the Army Medical Corps, including those who fought the Kargil war, are still
battling for their dues even though in 2011, theArmed Forces Tribunal,
Chandigarh directed implementation of the promotion pay scheme and the SC in
2013 ratified it. The ministry however felt that the recommended hiked pay scale
under dynamic assured career progression for armed forces doctors in uniform
would lead to "command and control problems". On March 12, Dr Handa's
petition was placed before the three judges and it was pointed out that despite
more than three months having passed, the Central government had yet to file its
reply to the petition. An additional solicitor general insisted that Dr Handa's
petition be clubbed with a plea for appeal filed last year by the Centre, through
the defence ministry against a similar order which is scheduled for hearing in
May 2015. The SC bench reminded the ASG that this petition by Dr Handa was a
prayer for implementation of AFT Chandigarh judgement passed in July 2011
which had reached finality in Supreme Court in September 2013 with the apex
court dismissing the appeal by the defence ministry against implementation of
DACP for armed forces doctors. ...
Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-doctors-battle-over-sixth-pay-commission-up-forhearing-in-SC/articleshow/46579738.cms
*
Eurofighter Jets on offer by the UK If India Scraps Rafale Deal:
The United Kingdom is ready to offer Eurofighter aircraft if India scraps deal to
acquire French Rafale jets, UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said. British
authorities are aware that the “deal with Dassault has not gone smoothly,”
Hammond was quoted as saying by Sputnik News. The UK sees this as an
opportunity to offer Eurofighters if India opens an official competitive bidding,
Hammond added. The Eurofighter Typhoon is a multirole fighter aircraft jointly
produced by three companies based in United Kingdom, Germany and Spain, and
Italy. Hammond is currently on a two-day trip to India. He said he has not raised
the issue with Indian authorities in the course of the ongoing meetings. India
chose France’s Dassault Aviation in 2012 to supply it with 126 Rafale fighter jets,
scrapping a rival proposal from the producers of the Eurofighter Typhoon.
However, the project has been put on hold over high costs and Dassault’s
unwillingness to guarantee the performance of Rafale aircraft produced in India
under transfer of technology agreements. Indian media have repeatedly
suggested that the country’s authorities could abandon the Rafale deal in favor of
Russia-designed SU-30 fighters.
Source: https://www.ibcworldnews.com/2015/03/16/eurofighter-jets-on-offer-by-the-uk-if-india-scrapsrafale-deal/
*
PROFILE:
INDIA NEEDS TO CORRECT DISTORTIONS IN MILITARY
China announced its annual defence allocation at US$141.5 billion on March 5,
and this makes it the world’s second largest national defence budget. The USA at
almost $600 billion has by far the world’s highest military outlay. It may be
recalled that India had announced its own defence allocation for the financial
year 2015–16 on February 28 and this is pegged at just under $40 billion
(Rs.246,727 crore). This differential should not come as a surprise for the US
remains a very high military spender and is also the lead nation in the world’s
biggest military alliance – NATO. In the last decade, the US-led war on terror
after 9-11 and the subsequent military operations, first in Afghanistan and then
Iraq, have led to considerable fiscal expenditure by the Pentagon. The US is
unlikely to dramatically reduce its military outlay (about 3. 5 percent of GDP ) in
the near future and will remain the world’s most credible and militarily capable
country for the next decade plus. In contrast, both China and India allocate under
2 percent of their GDP towards defence allocation, and given the difference in
their respective GDP, the China-India gap is over $100 billion in Beijing’s favor.
Most estimates aver that China is relatively opaque about its total defence
spending and that the actual amount allocated to the People’s Liberation Army
may be closer to $250 billion. Apart from the PLA military allocation, in past
years Beijing had revealed that its internal security budget is higher than its
military allocation. However this year, the internal security allocation was not
indicated but one may infer that this figure will be in the range of $250 to $300
billion. In summary, the annual military and internal security allocation for China
this year could well be in the $500 billion range. Given the prevailing economic
trajectory of China – the annual GDP growth rate has been revised from the
double digits of the last two decades to the new normal – of 7.5 percent and the
current defence allocation of $141 billion represents a 10 percent increase from
the last year....
Source: http://www.eurasiareview.com/15032015-india-needs-to-correct-distortions-in-military-profileanalysis/
*
India’s Military Muscles Up to China Threat:
India’s fear that China is encircling it has prompted the government of Prime
Minister Narendra Modi to boost military spending and liberalize investment in
defense. That’s drawing investor focus to four stocks – Bharat Forge
(500493.IN), Larsen & Toubro (500510.IN), Pipavav Defence (533107.IN) and
undervalued Tata Motors (500570.IN), which could rise by more than 50%.
India’s fears stem in part from the longstanding feud with China over their
Himalayan border, the one that broke into open warfare in 1962. Then when Xi
Jinping visited India in September to build Sino-Indian ties, People’s Liberation
Army troops made the undiplomatic gesture of moving into disputed territory to
block an Indian construction project. India has accused China of more frequent
incursions, similar to the rising number of visits Japan has seen from China’s air
force near disputed islets in the East China Sea. India has also become wary of an
increased Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Chinese companies have
built ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, part of a commercial expansion
designed to secure access to the Suez Canal and European markets as well as raw
materials in Africa and the Middle East. But India sees China’s westward creep as
part of slowly tightening “string of pearls” around New Delhi’s neck. Modi has
thus worked hard to cultivate ties with Beijing’s rivals, Japan and the U.S. He
hosted a gum-chewing Barack Obama as the first U.S. president to review the
Indian military review during the National Day parade. And he has sparked a
bromance on Twitter with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom he visited
in Tokyo last September. So like Japan, which in January raised its military
budget 2% to a record 4.98 trillion yen ($41 billion) and China, which earlier this
month said it would boost military spending by 10.1% to 886.9 billion yuan
($143.7 billion), Modi’s new budget lifts India’s military spending by 11%, to
nearly 2.47 trillion rupees ($39.2 billion). That includes a 15% increase in
military capital expenditure, which will go toward buying more hardware, like
the 45 warships India is now building or the six submarines....
Source: http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB52018153252431963983004580520974137350474
*
It’s now ok to speak of India-Israel defence ties… We’re not shy,
ashamed: Daniel Carmon:
I will start with a topic that has dominated the news recently — the state of the
relationship between the US and Israel. There have been a number of revelations
— the leaked South African diplomatic cables, more recently the former head of
Mossad has spoken out on Iran. What is Israel’s position on the nuclear deal with
Iran that appears imminent? And what are your concerns if the P5+1 underwrite
a nuclear agreement and the global community is comfortable with it? The
Israel-US bond is very strong. It is unbreakable, untouchable and I wouldn’t
worry about it at all. It’s, without doubt, strongly embedded in our values,
democracies, history, and the recognition of where both people and the free
world should be going. There is a discussion on how to deal with the Iranian
threat. I want to pinpoint specially on the Iranian threat being a threat not only
to Israel. Through history and now, Israel has been compelled to face new
challenges. Ours was the first country to face international terrorism. Iran is a
country that is posing a threat to the whole region and, I would even dare say, to
the world too. It is a country with a rogue regime with rogue activities, and
engaged in international terrorism. I have personally witnessed Iranian
terrorism. Iran, through its proxies, planned, attacked and destroyed the Israeli
embassy in Buenos Aires. I was there and I know. Iran is trying to expand its
presence in so many areas of our region in various ways. We have borders with
Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt, and we enjoy a peace treaty, but Iran is trying
to be on our borders. Iran is also trying to acquire nuclear and military
capabilities. This is the main reason our Prime Minister (Benjamin Netanyahu)
went to Washington a couple of days ago to put on the table a wake-up call,
saying Iran cannot be allowed to acquire capabilities that are unconventional.
The international community knows it, it has set up sanctions against Iran —
both on the UN Security Council side and the economic side. These cannot be
lifted before a real and agreeable solution is set, and this is what the Prime
Minister wanted to say and said it out loud in the US Congress.....
Source: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/its-now-ok-to-speak-of-india-israel-defenceties-were-not-shy-ashamed/
II
Homeland Security
*
Pakistan troops violate ceasefire along IB in Jammu:
Violating the ceasefire, Pakistani troops fired on border out posts (BoP) along
the International Border in Jammu district. Ceasefire Violation: Pakistan Rangers
Resort To Firing Along Int'l Border Pak Troops Violate Ceasefire, Target BoPs
Along IB Ceasefire Violation: Pakistan Targets 10 Indian Posts,2 BSF Jawans
Injured Pakistani Rangers fired four to five rounds on a forward BoP in
Jughnuchak belt of R S Pura sector last night, a BSF officer said. BSF troops
guarding the borderline did not retaliate to the firing. There was no casualty or
damage on our side, he said.
Source: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/pakistan-troops-violate-ceasefire-along-ib-injammu/
*
No ‘Rambo-style’ operations in Naxal areas, SOPs being revised:
CRPF:
CRPF will desist from undertaking any “Rambo”-style operations in the Naxalaffected areas even as the standard operating procedures in that regard are
being rejigged, the chief of the country’s largest paramilitary force has said. Also,
in the Left Wing-Extremism operations theatre, more than one lakh central
security troops, apart from state police forces, will now be able to get better feed
and intelligence data from technological gadgets as the NTRO’s Unmanned Aerial
Vehicles (UAVs) base has now been operationalised right inside the Naxal hotbed
in Chhattisgarh. “We don’t need to do Rambo-style operations… we don’t want
that. When we ask our boys to perform a task (in Naxal- affected areas), they do
it with a prompt sincerity and hence it is our responsibility to see that they are
safe,” CRPF Director General Prakash Mishra told PTI. The former Odisha DGP,
who took charge of the lead anti-Naxal operations force a few months back, said
that the operations of the force will now be more focused and intelligence-based
rather than being done by deploying security personnel in “herds” to effect a
Rambo-type offensive that requires a huge number of boots on the ground.....
Source:
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/no-rambo-style-operations-in-naxal-areassops-being-revised-crpf/
Indicia solicits comments and advice from readers on any aspect of the report. It believes
that cross-fertilisation of knowledge invariably leads to better knowledge
Indicia Research & Advisory
Fusion Knowledge in Indian Defence and Strategic Affairs
C – 79, Basement, Malviya Nagar, New Delhi – 110 017
T&F: + 91 11 4579 2922, email: [email protected]