Weekly credit update

Transcription

Weekly credit update - Danske Analyse

Weekly Credit Update
Analysts
Gabriel Bergin
+46 8 568 80602
[email protected]
Katrine Jensen
+45 45 12 80 56
[email protected]
11 October 2016
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research
reports prepared for retail investors.
Investment Research
www.danskebank.com/CI
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 36 of this report
- General credit market news and current themes
- Scandi high yield/unrated
- Scandi investment grade
- Credit indicators
- Coverage universe, credit ratings and recommendations
Contents
2
What’s on our minds
- General credit market news
• Attention was diverted last week from Deutsche Bank to the
ECB’s next steps. Following a Bloomberg news story citing
unnamed officials outlining a tapering strategy to end bond
purchases by the ECB, the generic 10-year German
government bond yield increased by 14bp from a week earlier
to the close yield on Friday of 0.054%.
• The ECB’s asset purchase programmes are scheduled to end in
March 2017 and ECB-watchers are looking towards the
central bank’s December meeting for a decision on how (and if)
the purchase programme will be extended.
• Over the weekend, there was no notable development in the
Deutsche Bank situation as no agreement had been reached
between the US Department of Justice and Deutsche Bank
management.
•
iTraxx indices range-traded during the week and ended the
week marginally wider, except for the Senior Financials, which
tightened 3bp w/w.
• Last week we saw EUR5.6bn in non-financial EUR deals, circa
NOK2.5bn in NOK and SEK2.3bn of non-financial volume in the
SEK market, of which one-third was high-yield.
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
3
Buy NOKIA 2019 USD, trading at wide margin to Nokia 2019 EUR
Published on 23 May 2016
CSPP Update
Purchases of EUR2.2bn in the week ending 7 October
•
•
The weekly purchase volume was roughly in line with recent weeks’ and the monthly run-rate is
still above EUR10bn/month. In total the ECB has now purchased bonds under the CSPP totalling
EUR32bn.
In relation to total purchased volume, the average holding of each ISIN (dividing the total
purchased amount by the number of ISINs held) has continued to rise to a staggering EUR50m
per ISIN., compared with an average issue size of EUR725m for the ISINs purchased so far.
•
See table on the right for newly purchased issues. Some of the new issues were also new issues in
the market, indicating a number of primary participations by the ECB.
•
In terms of the split of purchases so far, bonds from German issuers represent a much larger
share of purchased issues than the ECB’s benchmark would imply, based on outstanding market
volumes. Over time, the purchases should reflect the market benchmark.
Weekly purchase volumes
3000
Purchased issues, split by country of risk
60
2500
50
2000
40
1500
30
1000
20
500
10
US CH
SIGB
PTSK
AT
BE
Purchased issues last week
Bond
Remaining
ZΔ since
tenor
spread announcement*
EDFFP 3 7/8 11/10/17
1.1
34.38
-15.06
TITIM 3 09/30/25
9.0
272.99
n/a
AMSSM 0 1/8 10/06/20
4.0
33.21
New issue
ADPFP 1 1/2 04/07/25
8.5
17.61
-41.20
SEVFP 1 1/4 05/19/28
11.6
24.91
n/a
VIEFP 0.314 10/04/23
7.0
33.52
New issue
VIEFP 0.927 01/04/29
12.2
46.45
New issue
SGOFP 0 03/27/20
3.5
20.68
n/a
GEDISC 2 7/8 10/09/23
7.0
23.21
-53.22
GEDISC 2 7/8 05/07/29
12.6
42.19
-48.61
RDSALN 1 5/8 01/20/27
10.3
27.50
-83.11
NL
0
LU
DE
IT
IE
EE
0
ES
FR
Weekly purchase volume
Source: ECB, Danske Bank Markets
FI
Volume held per ISIN
Source: ECB, Danske Bank Markets
* Spread change since announcement of CSPP in March
Source: ECB, Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
4
Scandi HY/unrated
5
Low credit risk – Buy Akelius 2020s in EUR
- Attractive pricing considering our expectation of a bond upgrade (published 15 September)
Key arguments for the trade
In coming quarters, we expect Akelius interest costs to continue
falling, as the company refinances maturing debt with new cheaper
financing. This, together with a forthcoming asset sale, suggests
potential for some further improvement in credit metrics (end Q2
reported LTV: 47%; with S&P’s adjustments 53%).
•
We also expect Akelius’s secured LTV to decline gradually towards
its 25% target for 2018 (end-Q2 33%). In our view, this means that
at some stage S&P should remove its notching from Akelius’s bonds.
•
Considering the high likelihood of a ratings upgrade, we consider
Akelius 3.375% 2020s (currently rated BB+) in EUR to offer an
attractive pick-up relative to other European real estate names.
•
Chart 1. Relative value, indicative mid spreads
50
Looking at historical property prices, it appears residential property
prices normally decline much less than commercial property prices
during an economic downturn. At end June, Akelius unencumbered
assets to outstanding bonds and CPs was a high 5.0x.
•
See Property Sector Update: Sweden and Finland: focus on residentials,
12 September 2016
•
See Trade idea - Buy Akelius 2020s in EUR - Buy Victoria Park 2020s in
SEK , 15 September 2016
350
160
300
140
120
100
200
80
COFBBB (NR/NR)
1,929% '22
SATOYH
(Baa3/NR)
ATRSAV
(NR/BBB-)
SATOYH
(Baa3/NR)
2,375%
'21
4% '20
SDAVFH (NR/NR) 2,25% '20
3,375% '18
CITCON (Baa1/BBB) CITCON (Baa1/BBB)
1,25% '26
2,5% '24
SATOYH (NR/NR)
CITCON (Baa1/BBB)
3,375% '19
2,375% '22
100
•
250
AKFAST (NR/BB+)
ATRSAV (NR/BBB-)
3,375% '20
3,625% '22
SDAVFH (NR/NR)
2,375% '20
150
Akelius has a strategy to focus on growth through investing in low-risk
residential properties that generate stable cash flow over time. The
company invests most of the free cash flow that it generates in
renovating and refurbishing the existing properties or reinvests it in new
properties.
Chart 2. Twelve month credit spread development vs BBB index
Ask Spread (EUR)*
250
200
•
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
0
CITCON (Baa1/BBB)
3,75% '20
YTW**
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worst
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
12
XS1295537077[ASW 3M]
IBOXX EURO NON FINANCIALS BBB 3 5[ASSETSWAPSPREAD] RHS
6
Medium credit risk – Buy Victoria Park 2020s in SEK
- Building scale through organic growth and acquisitions (published 15 September)
We regard the outlook for the residential property market in Sweden as
positive, considering the recent population growth, a large shortage of
apartments and a strong urbanisation trend. Swedish residential
companies on average have a lower leverage than peers in the
commercial property segment.
•
Considering Victoria Park’s focus on the more stable residential market
and its long average debt maturity profile, we consider its bonds to be
attractively priced compared with sector peers such as D. Carnegie,
Heimstaden and Hemfosa.
•
As of end-June, Victoria Park reported a gross LTV (excluding preference
shares in debt) of 64% (net LTV 52%). Following recent transactions we
estimate a gross LTV of around 65%.
•
350
300
250
200
150
•
In mid-July, Victoria Park announced its largest acquisition to date,
totalling 1,900 apartments in Malmö and Karlskrona for a total price of
SEK1.8bn. Earlier this week the company made an equity issue, raising
SEK344m in new equity, which to us demonstrates its commitment to
its stipulated financial policy (Max LTV: 65%).
•
See Property Sector Update: Sweden and Finland: focus on residentials,
12 September 2016
•
See Trade idea - Buy Akelius 2020s in EUR - Buy Victoria Park 2020s in
SEK , 15 September 2016
101.2
CORESS FRN '19
CORESS FRN '19
(SEK)VICPAS FRN '20
(SEK)
FPARSS
(SEK) FRN '20
FPARSS FRNKLOVSS
'19
FRN
'20
(SEK)
(SEK)
(SEK)
SAGAX FRN '21 (EUR)
CORESS FRN '18 FPARSS FRN '19
(SEK)
SAGAX
FRN
'21
(SEK)
(SEK)
HEIMST FRN '19 SAGAX
FRN
'20
(EUR)
KLOVSS FRN '19
(SEK)
VICPAS FRN '18 SAGAX FRN '19 (EUR)
(SEK)
(SEK)FRN '18
FPARSS
SAGAX FRN '20 (SEK)
(SEK)
SAGAX FRN '19 (SEK)
CORESS FRN '17
KLOVSS FRN '18
(SEK)
KLOVSS
(SEK)FRN '18
SAGAX
(SEK) FRN '18 (SEK)
FPARSS FRN '16
(SEK)
400
Victoria Park is a Swedish real estate company, which specialises in
acquiring, developing and managing housing properties in growth areas
in Sweden. At the end of June 2016, the market value of Victoria Park’s
property portfolio amounted to SEK8.5bn.
Chart 2. Last two months trading in VICPAS ‘18 and ‘20 (price)
Mid Spread (SEK)*
500
450
•
100
105
101
104.5
100.8
104
100.6
100.4
103.5
100.2
103
100
99.8
102.5
50
YTW**
0
0
1
2
3
4
* Asset swap spread Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worst
5
6
9009255335 FRN 17JUN2020
9009255335 FRN 03DEC2018
7
Recent trade ideas (high yield and unrated)
Type
Outright
Trade
Buy Akelius 2020s in EUR
Outright
Idea
Attractive pricing considering our expectation of a bond
upgrade
Opened
15 Sep 2016
Buy Victoria Park 2020s in SEK
Building scale through organic growth and acquisitions
Opened
15 Sep 2016
Switch
Buy Kemira 2022s, fund by
selling Kemira 2019s
The spread differential between the Kemira 2019s and
2022s has widened significantly since the end of 2015.
A flattening of the Kemira curve indicates potential for
at least 20bp tightening, in our view.
Opened
08 Sep 2016
Switch
Switch to Volvo hybrids (call 20s VLVY EUR senior curve prices in an upgrade, the hybrids Opened
do not.
or 23s) from the EUR Volvo
senior curve
The USD denominated NOKIA 2019’s trade with a good Opened
Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019
17 Aug 2016
Outright
Switch
Outright
Outright
pickup relative to both the EUR denominated NOKIA
2019’s as well as the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve
23 May 2016
Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019
outright and fund by selling Nokia
EUR 6.75% 2019
Buy Kemira 2019s and 2022s
(EUR)
The USD denominated NOKIA 2019’s trade with a good
pickup relative to both the EUR denominated NOKIA
2019’s as well as the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve
Opened
23 May 2016
The Kemira 2019s and 2022s trade with a wide
differential to rated peers. Despite Kemira’s unrated
status, we believe this differential is too large.
Opened
02 May 2016
Buy DSV DKK 2020 and 2022s
The 2022s and the 2020 bonds are trading with 120bp
and 108bp spreads to the ‘BBB’ industrial curve,
respectively. Even taking into account the unrated status
of the bonds and a relatively low liquidity, we believe this
is very attractive.
Opened
29 Mar 2016
Source: Danske Bank Markets
See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including recommendations.
8
Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)
- High yield/unrated
1 month in local currencies
YTD in local currencies
-387 Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
-342
Odfjell SE NOK 2017
-374 Beerenberg Holdco II AS NOK 2018
-270
Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…
-297 Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019
-256
Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2019
-241 Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
-219
SSAB AB SEK 2019
-80 North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
-213
SSAB AB EUR 2019
-48 Golar LNG Partners LP NOK 2017
-202
Hoist Kredit AB EUR 2017
-40 SSAB AB SEK 2019
-183
Odfjell SE NOK 2018
-39 Teekay LNG Partners LP NOK 2018
-176
Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd NOK 2017
-28 Teekay LNG Partners LP NOK 2020
-168
Meda AB SEK 2019
-167
Meda AB SEK 2018
-24 Golar LNG Partners LP USD 2020
J Lauritzen A/S NOK 2017
1,098
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
101
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2019
2,162
Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019
105
Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019
2,559
Fred Olsen Energy ASA NOK 2019
143
Victoria Park AB SEK 2018
2,681
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
515
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018
2,961
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
579
Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019
3,021
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
3,642
4,385
Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
90
1,477
5000
Fred Olsen Energy ASA NOK 2019
6,093
7000
2,236
2,289
3000
1000
-1000
Change in local currencies (bp)
9,731
20,932
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000
0
-5000
9
Recent Nordic high yield/unrated issuance*
Selected new issues (High yield/unrated)
Issuer
Coupon
CCY
Volume
Maturity
S&P / Mdy / Fitch
ASW/DM
07/10/2016
Date
Net Gaming Europe Ab
13%
SEK
200 m
Sep/19
/ /
est. 1316
06/10/2016
Hancap
10%
SEK
260 m
Oct/19
/ /
est. 1024
06/10/2016
Bkk As
NIBOR3M +33bps
NOK
500 m
Oct/19
/ /
33
06/10/2016
Magnolia Bostad Ab
STIB3M +725bps
SEK
400 m
Oct/21
/ /
725
03/10/2016
Castellum Ab
STIB3M +120bps
SEK
500 m
Oct/18
/ /
120
03/10/2016
Vasakronan Ab
0.875%
SEK
200 m
Oct/21
/ /
86*
30/09/2016
Olav Thon Eiendomsselska
NIBOR3M +90bps
NOK
750 m
Oct/21
/ /
90
30/09/2016
Olav Thon Eiendomsselska
NIBOR3M +70bps
NOK
500 m
Oct/19
/ /
70
28/09/2016
Kabelgaten 32-40 Eiendom
3.09%
NOK
360 m
Oct/26
/ /
-
27/09/2016
Prime Living Ab
STIB3M +450bps
SEK
400 m
Sep/20
/ /
450
27/09/2016
Modern Times Group Ab
STIB3M +140bps
SEK
500 m
Oct/20
/ /
140
26/09/2016
Castellum Ab
1.875%
SEK
350 m
Oct/21
/ /
-
26/09/2016
Castellum Ab
STIB3M +195bps
SEK
650 m
Oct/21
/ /
195
23/09/2016
Serneke Group Ab
STIB3M +625bps
SEK
300 m
Sep/19
/ /
625
21/09/2016
Jernbanepersonalets Sbk
NIBOR3M +52bps
NOK
200 m
Sep/18
/ /
52
16/09/2016
Vastra Malardalen
STIB3M +110bps
SEK
325 m
Sep/20
/ /
110
16/09/2016
Entra Asa
NIBOR3M +94bps
NOK
1 000 m
Sep/23
/ /
94
14/09/2016
Steen & Strom Asa
NIBOR3M +110bps
NOK
400 m
Mar/23
/ /
110
14/09/2016
Sunnhordland Kraftlag As
NIBOR3M +114bps
NOK
300 m
Sep/21
/ /
114
13/09/2016
Fastator Ab
STIB3M +850bps
SEK
250 m
Sep/19
/ /
850
12/09/2016
Ocean Yield Asa
NIBOR3M +450bps
NOK
750 m
Sep/21
/ /
450
09/09/2016
Orkla Asa
NIBOR3M +85bps
NOK
400 m
Mar/23
/ /
85
09/09/2016
Orkla Asa
2.35%
NOK
200 m
Sep/26
/ /
est. 81
08/09/2016
Atrium Ljungberg Ab
STIB3M +88bps
SEK
400 m
Sep/18
/ /
88
08/09/2016
Lillestrom Sparebank
NIBOR3M +81bps
NOK
200 m
Nov/19
/ /
81
*Excluding increases in existing bond issues (taps)
10
Company news from the past week (high yield/unrated)
Name
SSAB
PostNord
News
SSAB (MW): Bloomberg reported that the EU Commission has decided to impose temporary (6month) tariffs on imports of Chinese hot rolled coiled (HRC) steel to the EU of between 13.2-22.6%
and on plate of between 65.1-73.7%. HRC steel is SSAB's largest product in its European operations,
about 80-90% of volumes in Europe (so about two-thirds of steel business revenues). The duties on
Plate were higher than the market had expected, while the duties on HRC were slightly lower. HRC
prices have risen since the beginning of the year (from EUR320/t to EUR452/t on 7 October). Part of
the rise has been in anticipation of import duties from the EU, which has already led to reduced
imports from Asia (remember that duties can be applied to exporters retrospectively). Nonetheless,
this is positive as it will serve as a hand under European steel prices. Note that this will not impact the
stainless steel market (i.e. Outokumpu). We have a Marketweight recommendation on SSAB as we
believe its trades tight relative to the 'B+' implied industrial rating curve.
PostNord (MW): For the past couple of months, there has been significant media attention regarding
PostNord. In essence, the number of complaints about late and missing deliveries has risen
dramatically this year. Most of this is attributable to the significant restructuring that PostNord is
undertaking as mail volumes are falling. We believe the recent turmoil will make a chance of a nearterm IPO of PostNord even more remote, as politicians and the public demand increased focus on the
mail delivery service obligation, rather than cost efficiency or new ventures. This should increase the
importance of PostNord’s credit standing for the government. Unfortunately, reform of the postal
legislation in Sweden will be impeded. A report preceding legislation has recently suggested some
increased flexibility in e. g. delivery times, which is now increasingly unlikely, putting pressure on
PostNord’s earnings and cash flow. Looking ahead, a potential risk is that PostNord’s brand will be
impaired in the logistics and growing e-commerce businesses, impairing top-line as well. In the past
years, PostNord has managed to protect earnings despite volume decline and large capex, but we will
look out for signs in coming quarters that the current problems impact the business in a significant
way. PostNord’s SEK 2019 bonds are trading some 15bp wider than credit quality peers like Skanska
and Telia, which is fair given current uncertainty. We have a Marketweight recommendation on
PostNord.
Implication
Credit positive
Credit neutral
11
Name
News
SAS (B2/S) reported decent traffic numbers for September with a 7.6% increase in traffic on the back
of a 7% increase in capacity - leading to a slight increase in capacity utilisation to 77.6%. The weak
spot is a 8% currency-adjusted decline in average ticket prices. SAS stated that: ‘the overall
Scandinavian market capacity has increased resulting in intensive competition. This combined with
lower jet fuel prices has put pressure on the yield that has declined more than anticipated in 2016’.
SAS
We have seen the same trends from other carriers in recent months. SAS 2017 priced to call (call
@102.25). SAS Conv. 2019 looks attractively valued trading wider than the B curve and some
c.180bp pick-up to the NAS 19. However, this reflects a weaker operating model with no asset backing
left in SAS. Overall we see traffic numbers as credit neutral to SAS.
On 6 October, Victoria Park (Overweight) and Heimstaden (Marketweight) announced with Balder
(Marketweight) and the municipal property company in Malmö MKB that they plan to form a new joint
venture in relation to a development project called ‘Culture Casbah’ in the area of Rosengård in Malmö.
Rosengård is a troubled area but with a fairly central location in the city and the idea is to make the
area part of central Malmö by developing it further. Part of the project includes the construction of
Victoria Park, 200 new apartments, some 30 commercial facilities and a new 22-story tower. The new company will
Heimstaden and also acquire some 1650 existing apartments in the area. The project is still in a very early phase and
consequently there is no financial information available yet, but we assume that the participating
Balder
companies will put in their pro rata share of equity in the new company while the remaining part should
be debt-financed. Business-wise we regard the announcement as positive especially for Victoria Park
that is already present in Rosengård and hence could benefit in case property values rise as the area
is developed in a positive way. We maintain our Overweight recommendation on Victora Park's SEK
bonds with a Marketweight on Heimstaden and Balder.
NAS reported continued high increase in passenger traffic (up 21% y/y) in September on the back of a
19% capacity increase - primarily intercontinental. This resulted in a load factor increase of 1.2pp to
89.4% in September - solid! However, after several months of almost unchanged average ticket prices
y/y despite the high increase of capacity, NAS reported an 8% decrease in average ticket prices in
September. Although some of it could be currency related, we believe investors could see this as a first
Norwegian Air
sign that NAS is not immune to the increased capacity and hence price pressure in European-based
Shuttle (NAS)
aviation. Over the past months we have seen several profit warnings from peers like Lufthansa, BA and
easyJet. However, we do not want to exaggerate the impact of one month’s traffic numbers and we will
watch the coming month’s traffic numbers and average ticket prices closely. Overall we believe NAS
will report strong Q3 results on 20 October, which should support the bonds. We see bond spreads as
fair at current levels.
Implication
Credit neutral
Credit positive
Credit negative
12
Name
Corem
News
Regarding Ericsson's announcement of a potential closing down/reduction of production in Borås and Kumla, this
will affect Corem (Marketweight) that has logistics/office facilities in both cities with Ericsson as its main
customer. According to Corem, Ericsson today constitutes roughly 4% of total rental income (with its share having
been reduced in recent years). Contracts have been renegotiated relatively recently and currently expire around
2019. This gives some time for adaptation. Clearly Ericsson's announcement is a negative but Corem has
previously been through a similar process in Hudiksvall and Falun, which are weaker cities, and as both Borås and
Kumla are decent from a logistics perspective, the adaptation process should be easier this time around. We
maintain a Marketweight recommendation on Corem.
Implication
Credit negative
13
Scandi investment grade
14
Buy Caruna 1.5% 2023 outright
Still undervalued (published 3 October 2016)
•
The Caruna 1.5% 2023 is fundamentally undervalued. Being ‘BBB+’
rated, Caruna trades between the ‘BBB-’ and the ‘BBB’ curve.
•
We believe the Caruna 1.5% 2023s trade at wide levels due to a lack
of name recognition. Caruna is a relatively new issuer and we believe
many investors have yet to get properly acquainted with this name.
•
Caruna’s business risk profile is excellent. This is because 100% of its
earnings originate from Finnish power distribution activities. Income
from these assets is fully regulated by the Finnish authorities. This
provides a very high degree of earnings and cash flow visibility in the
short to medium term
The regulator has recently adjusted the model to the benefit of Caruna.
•
Mid Spread (EUR)*
90
•
Despite being a fairly new company, Caruna’s operating activities have
a very long track record, as the company is based on Fortum’s Finnish
distribution activities.
•
Caruna is the result of a leveraged acquisition, with infrastructure and
pension funds acquiring Fortum’s Finnish grid in a leveraged
transaction. This has made the ownership structure and corporate
structure relatively complex. We consider inter-creditor agreements
and covenant protections adequate to offset the complexity risks.
•
We struggle to justify the recent underperformance of Caruna relative
to its Finnish peer Elenia.
•
See Initiation of coverage - Caruna, 24 August.
•
See Buy Caruna 1.5% 2023 outright, 3 October 2016.
Chart 2. Credit spread development
ASW Issue
Currency
100
Utilities BBBELENIA 2.875% '20 (NR/BBB S)
80
90
HNANO FRN '20 (NR/NR)
70
CARUNA 1.5% '23 (NR /BBB+ S)
80
70
60
50
Utilities BBB
DONGAS 2.625% '22 (Baa1 NO/BBB+ S)
Utilities BBB+
Utilities ADONGAS 4.875% '21 VATFAL 5.375% '24
(A3 NO/ BBB+ NO)
FINPOW 3.5% '24 (A1 PO/A+ PO)
VATFAL 6.25% '21
40
30
60
50
40
30
STATNE 4.05% '29
STATNE 4.85% '27 (A2 S/A+ S)
20
DONGAS 6.5% '19
VATFAL 6.75% '19
VATFAL 5% '18
10
10
HNANO 6.11% '18
0
1
2
3
4
20
5
6
7
8
9
* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worst
Note: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European issuers
10
11
12
13
YTW**
0
Jul-2016
Aug-2016
CARUNA EUR 1.5% 2023
Aug-2016
Sep-2016
ELENIA 42646 2.875% 2020
Sep-2016
Oct-2016
IBOXX EURO Utilities
15
Recent trade ideas (investment grade)
Recent ideas
Type
Outright
Trade
Idea
Buy Caruna 1.5% 2023 outright Being ‘BBB+’ rated, Caruna trades between the ‘BBB-’
Outright
Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024
(revisited)
Switch
Opened
03 Oct 2016
We recommended to buy the Carlsberg EUR2024. The
fundamental case has improved further following the H1
16 report from Carlsberg.
Opened
30 Aug 2016
Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024 and
fund it by selling Carlsberg EUR
2019 (revisited)
We recommended to buy the Carlsberg EUR2024 and
fund it by selling the Carlsberg EUR2019. The
fundamental case has improved further following the H1
16 report from Carlsberg.
Opened
30 Aug 2016
Switch
Buy DONGAS 3% call 2020 and
fund by selling DONGAS 4.875%
call 2018
The DONGAS 3% call 2020 have clearly underperformed
the DONGAS 4.875% call 2018 in the past 6 months.
This is unjustified biven the benign newsflow in DONG
Energy
Opened
09 Aug 2016
Outright
Buy SEB AT1 USD 5.75% call
2020
Opened
27 Jun 2016
Switch
SEB's AT1 USD 5.75% call 2020 has underperformed
closest peers recently resulting in about 50bp pick up to
Swedbank's'20 or SHB's '21 and about 30bp to Nordea's
'21
Pick-up is c. 40bp for around 1.5 years of maturity
extension.
Buy Maersk EUR 2021 and fund
by selling Maersk EUR 2019
Maersk EUR 2021 is trading wider than the BBBBuy Maersk EUR 2021
Opened
03 Jun 2016
Opened
03 Jun 2016
Opened
18 Apr 2016
Outright
Outright
and the ‘BBB’ curve
industrial curve vs. Maersks BBB+/NO rating.
Buy Danfoss 1.375% 2022
(EUR)
The spread on the DNFSDC 22s trades wider than the
‘BBB’ fair value curve and is rated ‘BBB’ with stable
outlook by S&P.
See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including recommendations
16
Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)
- Investment grade
1 week in local currencies
0
TDC A/S EUR 2027
0
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
-6
Securitas AB EUR 2018
0
Statkraft AS EUR 2017
-5
Investor AB EUR 2021
0
Investor AB EUR 2021
-5
Swedbank AB SEK 2018
0
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB EUR…
-5
Vattenfall AB EUR 2018
0
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
-5
SKF AB EUR 2018
0
Statoil ASA EUR 2021
-5
Telia Co AB EUR 2021
0
Statkraft AS NOK 2025
-5
Statoil ASA EUR 2021
1
-5
TDC A/S EUR 2018
1
Swedbank AB SEK 2018
-5
Telenor ASA EUR 2018
SKF AB EUR 2020
Telenor ASA EUR 2022
9
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB EUR…
5
SKF AB EUR 2022
9
Swedbank AB EUR 2022
6
Fortum OYJ EUR 2022
11
Svenska Handelsbanken AB EUR 2021
11
DNB Bank ASA EUR 2021
6
DONG Energy A/S EUR 2022
12
DNB Bank ASA EUR 2022
Vattenfall AB EUR 2024
Swedish Match AB SEK 2020
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
5
0
-5
12
Statkraft AS NOK 2025
13
Swedish Match AB SEK 2020
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
16
22
10
Swedbank AB EUR 2021
8
6
14
15
Statkraft AS EUR 2017
5
7
20
-8
5
10
25
1 month in local currencies
19
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
17
Selected new investment-grade issues**
Date
Issuer
Coupon
07/10/2016
Sodexo
0.75%
EUR
600 m
Apr/27
A- / / BBB+
45
07/10/2016
Ren Finance Bv
2.5%
EUR
200 m
Feb/25
/ Baa3e / BBBe
137*
06/10/2016
Electricite De France Sa
1.875%
EUR
750 m
Oct/36
A- / A3e / A-e
104*
06/10/2016
Electricite De France Sa
1%
EUR
1 750 m
Oct/26
A- / A3e / A-e
58*
06/10/2016
Hera Spa
0.875%
EUR
400 m
Oct/26
BBB / Baa1 /
53*
05/10/2016
Terna Spa
1%
EUR
750 m
Oct/28
BBB / Baa1 / BBB+e
51*
05/10/2016
Landshypotek Bank Ab
0%
SEK
500 m
Apr/18
A- / / A
30*
04/10/2016
Rikshem Ab
STIB3M +100bps
SEK
600 m
Oct/21
A- / /
100
04/10/2016
Cooperatieve Rabobank Ua
0.125%
EUR
500 m
Oct/21
A+ / Aa2e / AA-e
28
STIB3M +325bps
SEK
750 m
Oct/46
BBB+ / Baa1 / WD
325
03/10/2016 Storebrand Livsforsikrin (Tier 2)
CCY Volume
Maturity
S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM
*Estimated
**Excluding increases in existing bond issues (taps)
18
Company news from the past week (investment grade)
Name
Carlsberg
TDC
Nordea
Banks
News
Carlsberg (MW) openly criticises Russia's plan to impose excise tax of RUB21/liter on non-alcoholic
beer. Carlsberg states this is illogical and contradicts government policy to reduce alcohol abuse.
Overall this underlines the difficult market conditions in Russia. The Russian beer market is dominated
by foreign companies and hence makes it an easy target for the Russian government to find additional
tax revenue. Russia accounts for c. 15% of Group EBIT for Carlsberg, hence this move will only have
minor impact on group earnings/metrics. In 2010 Russia accounted for around 50% of Group EBIT!
Overall Credit neutral.
TDC (MW). Article in 7 October edition of Berlingske on the Apollo/TDC story and possible reasons for
a potential PE take-over. The article argues that the most likely rationale for a PE fund to take over is to
split off TDC's cable business (YouSee) and merge it with Com Hem. The article establishes an old link
between Apollo and BC Partners (the current owner of Com Hem). Both PE funds were in a (losing)
bidding consortium back in 2005 when TDC was taken private initially. By merging YouSee and GET
(TDC's cable business) with Com Hem, the PE funds could create a strong Nordic cable provider which
would have more leverage when negotiating with cable content providers. The remaining parts of TDC
(mobile, corporate mobile and wholesale) could be sold to other participants on the Danish market or
to participants wishing to enter. The article does not change anything, in our view, but provides an
interesting perspective as to why a PE take-over is not as farfetched as some market participants
think it is
Nordea (UW). According to a Dutch newspaper, Nordea and ABN Amro have discussed merging and
the Dutch have rejected the proposal. As Nordea is about twice the size of ABN, it would be the
acquiring unit and Nordea could move its head office to Amsterdam. The reasoning behind the merger
should be to avoid the tougher capital requirements in Sweden. We doubt that such a large merger
between banks would be approved by the authorities given the intensive work on avoiding banks being
too-big-to-fail and too complex.
Regarding ‘Tier 3’. On Wednesday the ECB announced that it has changed its eligibility criteria for
senior unsecured bonds and from 2017 senior unsecured bonds that are statutorily subordinated will
be eligible, while contractual subordinated senior bonds will not – this is clearly a support to German
senior debt. In our view, the ‘non-preferred’ senior (Tier 3) to be introduced in France should also be
eligible. For Sweden, this could push a solution similar to the one expected in France, which would also
make sense given that its documentation in Tier 2 currently conflicts with contractual subordination.
Implication
Credit neutral
Credit neutral
Credit neutral
Credit neutral
19
Name
APMM
Ericsson
APMM
News
APMM (MW). Last Monday after market close Moody's placed its BBB+ rating on review for downgrade
following the announcement of a new structure with separation of the energy businesses. Moody’s
stated the review will result in a downgrade of at least one notch, although ultimately the rating will
depend on the amount of debt that will be allocated to the Shipping division as well as any remaining
ownership interests in the Energy division. APMM has stated that it will target an IG rating in A.P. Møller
- Maersk A/S (bond issuer entity) but has not commented if this means BBB or BBB-. We believe APMM
will target a BBB rating as the Group will be much more exposed to shipping, which is poorly rated by
rating agencies and volatile. Therefore we believe APMM will want to keep some slack in its metrics to
prevent a downgrade to HY when/if the shipping industry is under pressure. Short-term maturities are
trading tight vs a BBB rating but will continue to do so in our view due to the ample liquidity of APMM.
Mid-dated maturities (EUR2021-2022) are trading at the BBB- curve, which is fair in our view due to
the rating pressure combined with earnings pressure in key segments. Longer-dated bonds trade
significantly wider than the BBB- curve and are attractively priced in our view but reflect uncertainty
about the future rating level and the poor state of the shipping industry in general. We keep our
Marketweight on APMM.
Ericsson (MW) has come to a decision regarding its jobs cuts in Sweden. Ericsson has decided to cut
3,000 jobs (about 2% of its global work force) mainly in the Swedish operations. Both blue and whitecollar positions affected (Production, R&D, Sales and Administration). There has been a lot of
speculation during the process where as much as 4-5,000 job cuts had been anticipated by some
media sources, i.e. the number announced is somewhat lower than expectations most likely due to tough
negotiations with unions. At the same time Ericsson announced that it will recruit about 1,000 people in
R&D over the coming three years so the net cut will be closer to 2,000. The cuts will not increase
savings beyond the SEK9bn 2017 target previously announced by Ericsson. Overall this announcement
should not affect spreads to any significant degree, in our view.
APMM (MW). The South Africa Competition Commission raided container shipping companies including Maersk - for potential rate fixing. However, this happens quite often and we note that alliances
in the shipping industry are approved by i.e. the EU Commission, simply because they do not really
impact rates – it is pure demand/supply that matters. Hence, we do not believe that this news will
impact spreads. The short-term spread driver continues to be the uncertainty regarding the targeted
credit rating. APMM has stated it will target IG but it is set to be BBB or BBB-. In a BBB- scenario
investors will fear that APMM will not be able to keep metrics commensurate with IG in times of
shipping downturns - hence some investors are worried that APMM could become a x-over case in
reality.
Implication
Credit neutral
Credit neutral
Credit neutral
20
Name
Nordea
News
Nordea (UW). The Swedish FSA published a statement and held a press conference last Monday
afternoon that clarified why the results of its SREP 2016 including a review of corporate risk weights
and the results of its initial investigation of Nordea’s corporate risk weights opened in April differed.
The initial investigation resulted in an extra capital need of up to SEK50-80bn (leaked in the media in
June) compared to the SEK13.8m added to its capital requirements following the results of its SREP
2016 published 3 October. One of the primary reasons for the significant difference is that the initial
analysis ‘made the assumption that Swedish economic conditions were representative for all of
Nordea’s exposures to corporates, even though a significant portion of Nordea’s operations are
outside of Sweden’. In relation to the SREP 2016, the FSA has had access to new data and worked
closely together with other relevant regulatory authorities. Furthermore, it was clarified at the press
conference that the question regarding Nordea’s corporate risk weights posed back in April has been
answered/closed with this review, which should provide some comfort to the market.
Implication
Credit positive
21
Credit indicators
Credit Indicators
22
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns
Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices
IG total return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100
Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices
HY total return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
23
Chart pack: relative value
iTraxx vs iBoxx
Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)
Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)
24
Chart pack: general market development
European swap and government yields
3M Libor, US and euro area
Euro swap curve spread
EUR/USD basis swaps
25
Chart pack: funds flow
Europe, net sales
US, net sales
Sweden, net sales
Norway, net sales
26
Chart pack: macro
GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted
Purchasing Manager Indices
Euro area y/y change in bank lending
Euro area lending standards
27
Coverage universe, credit ratings
and recommendations
28
Our coverage 1 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch
Company
Ahlstrom Oyj
Akelius Residential Property Ab
Aktia Bank Plc
Alandsbanken Abp
Ambu A/S
Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S
Arla Foods Amba
Atlas Copco Ab
Avinor As
Balder
Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As
Bank Norwegian As
Beerenberg Holdco Ii As
Billerudkorsnas Ab
Bonum Pankki Oyj
Brage Finans As
Bw Offshore
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Caruna Networks Oy
Castellum Ab
Citycon Oyj
Color Group As
Com Hem Holding Ab
Corem Property Group Ab
Danfoss A/S
Danske Bank A/S
Deep Sea Supply Plc
Destia Group Oy
Dfds A/S
Dlg Finance As
Dna Ltd
Dnb Bank Asa
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBBABBB
Stable
Neg
Neg
BBB
Pos
Baa
A
AA-
Stable
Neg
BBB
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BBB
Stable
BB
Stable
BBB
A
Stable
Stable
A+
A3
Neg
A2
A1
Stable
Stable
A
Stable
Baa2
Neg
BBB
Stable
Baa1
Stable
A2
Stable
A
Stable
Aa2
Neg
Analyst(s)
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
J. Magnussen / M. Rosendal
B. Børsting/J. Magnussen
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
J.Magnussen / L.Landeman
J. Magnussen / B. Børsting
Ø. Mossige
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Recomm.
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
29
Our coverage 2 of 6
Fitch
Moody's
S&P
Company
Dof Asa
Dof Subsea As
BBB+ Stable
Neg
Baa1
BBB+ Stable
Dong Energy A/S
Dsv A/S
Eg Holding
Eidesvik Offshore Asa
Eika Boligkreditt As
Eika Forsikring As
Eika Gruppen As
Ba3U Stable
Pos
BBB
Eksportfinans Asa
WD
Wr
BBB+ Stable
Electrolux Ab
BBB
Elenia Oy
Stable
Baa2
BBB+ Stable
Elisa Oyj
Farstad Shipping Asa
Fastpartner Ab
Felleskjopet Agri Sa
Stable
A+
Pos
A1
Pos
A+
Fingrid Oyj
Finnair Oyj
Stable BBB+ Stable
Baa1
BBB+ Stable
Fortum Oyj
Stad Ab
BBB+ Stable
Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms
Fred Olsen Energy Asa
Neg
BBBG4S Plc
Getinge Ab
Golar Lng Partners Lp
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd
Havila Shipping Asa
Heimstaden Ab
Stable
AHemso Fastighets Ab
Hexagon Ab
Hkscan Oyj
Hoegh Lng Holdings Ltd
Stable
Ba1
Hoist Kredit Ab
Husqvarna Ab
Analyst(s)
Ø. Mossige
Ø. Mossige
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / B. Børsting
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
G. Bergin / B. Børsting
Ø. Mossige
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Ø. Mossige
A. Moberg / L. Landeman
Recomm.
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
30
Our coverage 3 of 6
Company
Ica Gruppen Ab
Ikano Bank Ab
Investor Ab
Iss A/S
J Lauritzen A/S
Jefast Holding Ab
Jernhusen Ab
Jyske Bank A/S
Kemira Oyj
Kesko Oyj
Klaveness Ship Holding As
Klovern Ab
Kongsberg Gruppen
Lantmannen Ek For
Loomis Ab
Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab
Meda Ab
Metsa Board Oyj
Metso Oyj
Ncc Ab
Neste Oyj
Nibe Industrier Ab
Nokia Oyj
Nordax Bank Ab
Nordea Bank Ab
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd
Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa
Norwegian Property Asa
Nykredit Bank A/S
Nynas Group
Obos Bbl
Ocean Rig Udw Inc
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
AABBB
A-
BB+
BBB
Stable
Stable
Stable
Pos
Stable
Aa3
Baa1U
Wr
Ba2
Baa2
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB+
Pos
Ba1
Stable
BB+
Pos
AA-
Neg
Aa3
Stable
AA-
Stable
A
Stable
Baa3U
Stable
A
Stable
CCC-
Neg
Ca
Neg
Analyst(s)
L. Holm / K. Jensen
G. Bergin / B. Børsting
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Recomm.
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
31
Our coverage 4 of 6
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Company
Ocean Yield Asa
Odfjell Se
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa
Olympic Ship As
Op Corporate Bank Plc
AANeg
Aa3
Stable
WD
Orava Residential Reit Plc
Orkla Asa
Outokumpu Oyj
B3
Pos
Pacific Drilling Sa
CCC+
Neg
Caa2
Neg
Petroleum Geo-Services Asa
CCC+
Neg
Caa1
Neg
Postnord Ab
Prosafe Se
Ramirent Oyj
Rem Offshore Asa
Saab Ab
Wr
Sandnes Sparebank
Sandvik Ab
BBB
Neg
Sas Ab
B
Stable
Wr
Stable
Sbab Bank Ab
A
Neg
A2
Stable
Scania Ab
BBB+
Neg
Seadrill Ltd
Securitas Ab
BBB
Stable
Wr
Ship Finance International Ltd
Wr
Siem Offshore Inc
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab
A+
Stable
Aa3
Stable
AAStable
Skanska Ab
Skf Ab
BBB
Neg
Baa2
Stable
Sognekraft As
Solstad Offshore Asa
Spar Nord Bank A/S
Sparbanken Skane Ab
BBB+
Pos
Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As
Analyst(s)
Ø. Mossige
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
S. Stormyr
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
M. Rosendal / G. Bergin
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Recomm.
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
32
Our coverage 5 of 6
Company
Sparebank 1 Nord Norge
Sparebank 1 Smn
Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa
Sparekassen Kronjylland
Sponda Oyj
Srv Group Oyj
Ssab Ab
St1 Nordic Oy
Statkraft Sf
Statnett Sf
Statoil Asa
Stena Ab
Stockmann Oyj Abp
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
Stora Enso Oyj
Storebrand Bank Asa
Storebrand Livsforsikring Group
Sunnfjord Energi As
Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab
Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca
Svenska Handelsbanken Ab
Swedavia Ab
Swedbank Ab
Swedish Match Ab
Sydbank A/S
Tallink Grupp As
Tdc A/S
Technopolis Oyj
Teekay Lng Partners Lp
Teekay Offshore Partners Lp
Tele2 Ab
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
A1
Stable
A
Stable
A1
Stable
AStable
A1
Neg
AStable
B+
Stable
AA+
A+
BB-
Neg
Stable
Stable
Neg
Aaa
Wr
Aa3
B3
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
BBB+
BBB+
Pos
Stable
Stable
Ba2
Nr
Baa1
Pos
Stable
BBB
Neg
AAA-
Stable
Neg
Baa1
Aa2
Neg
Stable
AABBB
Neg
Stable
Aa3
Baa2
Baa1
BBB-
Stable
Baa3
WD
AA
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
AA-
Stable
Stable
BBB-
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Louis Landeman
M. Rosendal / G. Bergin
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Louis Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
B. Børsting / J. Magnussen
Ø. Mossige
Ø. Mossige
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
33
Our coverage 6 of 6
Company
Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson
Telenor Asa
Telia Co Ab
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Topdanmark A/S
Tryg Forsikring A/S
Upm-Kymmene Oyj
Vasakronan Ab
Vattenfall Ab
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Victoria Park Ab
Volvo Ab
Welltec A/S
Wihlborgs Fastigheter Ab
Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa
Yit Oyj
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
BBB+
Neg
Baa1
Stable BBB+ Stable
A
Stable
A3
Stable
ABaa1
Stable
AStable
BB+
Stable
Wr
BBB
Neg
BB+
Pos
Ba1
Pos
WD
BBB+
Neg
A3
Neg
BBB+
Stable
BBB
B
Pos
Neg
Baa2
B2
Stable
Neg
BBB
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
J. Magnussen / M. Rosendal
S. Stormyr
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
34
Fixed Income Credit Research team
Thomas Hovard
Head of Credit Research
+45 45 12 85 05
[email protected]
Henrik René Andresen
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 13 33 27
[email protected]
Gabriel Bergin
Strategy, Industrials
+46 8 568 80602
[email protected]
Brian Børsting
Industrials
+45 45 12 85 19
[email protected]
Bendik Engebretsen
Industrials
+47 85 40 69 14
[email protected]
Lars Holm
Financials
+45 45 12 80 41
[email protected]
Katrine Jensen
Financials
+45 45 12 80 56
[email protected]
Louis Landeman
Industrials, Real Estate
+46 8 568 80524
[email protected]
Jakob Magnussen
Utilities, Energy
+45 45 12 85 03
[email protected]
Jonas Meyer
Shipping
+47 85 40 70 79
[email protected]
August Moberg
Industrials & Construction
+46 8 568 80593
[email protected]
Niklas Ripa
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 12 80 47
[email protected]
Mads Rosendal
Industrials, TMT
+45 45 14 88 79
[email protected]
Sondre Dale Stormyr
Offshore rigs
+47 85 40 70 70
[email protected]
Haseeb Syed
Industrials
+47 85 40 54 19
[email protected]
Find the latest Credit Research: :
Danske Bank Markets: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch
Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>
35
Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ('Danske Bank'). The authors of this research report are stated on the
front page of this report.
Analyst certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research
analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the
compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.
Regulation
Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in
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(UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.
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might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report
See http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer for further disclosures and information..
36
General disclaimer
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37

Weekly credit update - Danske Analyse

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