Weekly Credit Update

Weekly Credit Update
24 March 2015
Investment Research
www.danskebank.com/CI
Chief Analyst
Thomas Hovard
+45 25 42 42 09
[email protected]
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 24 of this report
Contents
- Market news
- Best and worst performers
- Trade ideas
- Company news
- Chart pack
- List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations
2
What’s on our mind
- General credit market news
• The last week has been rather bleak for the credit markets with the
iTraxx Main widening around 7bp and the iTraxx Crossover by
14bps. While most fundamentals and technicals are in favour of
credit, we believe the heavy issuance is taking its toll on the
markets.
• In terms of issuance, net supply in 2015 YTD is already in line with
all of 2014 (and much higher than the three previous years) driven
by subordinated debt from financials and high yield. This is making it
difficult for investors to digest the new issue pipeline.
• As we approach the next reporting season, which will see more
modest supply, we expect credit to perform again. Our view is driven
by the US economy being on track, the EU recovering and China not
coming off the rails. Furthermore, ECB’s asset purchase
programme will underpin the hunt for yield.
• Under its new bank rating methodology, Moody’s placed Danske,
SEB, SHB, DNB and the three Norwegian savings banks Sparebank
1 SR-Bank, SMN and Nord-Norge under review for upgrade of their
senior unsecured ratings. Swedbank, Nykredit (unsolicited),
Sydbank, Jyske (unsolicited) and Pohjola stayed unchanged while
Nordea was put on review for a potential two-notch downgrade. We
haven’t received the rationale for the individual ratings. Overall, the
changes were mainly due to a lowering of potential government
support following BRRD and on the other hand the improved
capitalisation and bail-inable liabilities at many banks following new
regulation which creates a loss-absorbing cushion for senior
unsecured debt.
Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
3
News on mortgage lending standards
- Moody’s has published comments on regulatory changes in Norway and Sweden
Norway (Finanstilsynet proposal of17 March):
• New loans would remain restricted to a maximum loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 85%, but personal guarantees (sureties) that
are often provided by parents for first-time homebuyers would no longer be allowed as a justification to exceed the limit.
• Finanstilsynet has also proposed a minimum 2.5% annual amortisation from the first year for all mortgages until the LTV
falls to 65%.
• The proposed rule would mean a tightening of policy because the current guidelines require amortisation only down to 70%
LTV and do not specify a minimum annual amortisation.
• Banks should assume a 6pp increase of the interest rate when checking borrower affordability (up 1pp). Importantly, banks
will no longer be allowed to bypass the stress test based on a special prudential assessment of the borrower’s
circumstances.
• Finanstilsynet recommended that the Ministry of Finance establish the underwriting requirements in the form of regulation,
contrary to the current requirements, which are only guidelines.
• The proposal is seen [by Moody’s] as credit positive as it would assist in maintaining stable asset quality and limit the
growth of household indebtedness in a low interest rate environment.
Sweden (Finansinspektionen proposal of18 March):
•
New mortgage loans, typically capped at a maximum LTV of 85%, would be amortised at 2% of the loan per year until the
LTV falls to 70%, at which point the amortisation would be 1% per year until the LTV falls to 50%.
• The requirement has a countercyclical element because LTV variations owing to house price changes would only be
factored in every five years at the earliest.
• The proposal will affect all new mortgage loans starting on 1 August 2015.
• The proposal is seen [by Moody’s] as credit positive for Swedish covered bonds because it would constrain household
indebtedness and build up home equity.
4
Best and worst performers
- Investment grade
1 week in local currencies
-22,5
-25,9
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
TDC A/S EUR 2015
-16,2
SBAB Bank AB EUR 2016
-6,3
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017
Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017
-18,3
Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017
-17,3
Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020
-5,2
Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020
-10,8
-5,0
Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016
-10,4
TDC A/S EUR 2022
-4,9
Investor AB EUR 2016
-9,4
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2019
-3,7
Vattenfall AB EUR 2016
-6,1
Investor AB EUR 2016
-3,3
DNB Boligkreditt AS EUR 2016
-6,1
Nykredit Bank A/S EUR 2015
-3,3
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2017
-6,0
Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
10,1
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2019
3,2
Statoil ASA EUR 2025
10,2
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
3,3
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
10,3
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
3,4
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027
10,7
Statkraft AS EUR 2022
3,6
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2022
11,3
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027
3,8
Telenor ASA EUR 2024
11,5
Statoil ASA EUR 2025
3,0
4,0
Sampo Oyj EUR 2021
12,1
Telenor ASA EUR 2024
4,0
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2031
12,3
AP Moeller - Maersk A/S EUR 2019
5,0
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
12,6
Telenor ASA EUR 2025
Statkraft AS EUR 2022
12,6
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
5,2
5
-27,4
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
-19,8
10
1 month in local currencies
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Change in local currencies (bp)
5
Best and worst performers
- High yield
1 week in local currencies
-42,0
Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…
-29,2
Prosafe SE NOK 2017
-107,8
Prosafe SE NOK 2019
-23,4
Color Group AS NOK 2016
-105,7
Beerenberg Holdco II AS NOK 2018
-23,0
Meda AB SEK 2018
-100,6
Hoist Kredit AB SEK 2016
-22,1
Hoist Kredit AB SEK 2016
-91,4
Prosafe SE NOK 2020
-21,5
Finnair OYJ EUR 2049
-90,7
Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…
-20,0
Stora Enso OYJ SEK 2017
-77,1
Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019
-19,7
Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2016
-69,7
Prosafe SE NOK 2017
-19,4
Meda AB SEK 2016
-65,8
Prosafe SE NOK 2018
-18,2
Odfjell SE NOK 2017
-63,1
Nynas AB SEK 2018
Prosafe SE NOK 2016
SAS AB SEK 2017
68,5
Odfjell SE NOK 2017
42,2
Stena AB USD 2024
76,8
J Lauritzen A/S NOK 2017
45,5
Stena International SA USD 2024
47,1
SAS AB SEK 2019
48,3
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
197,1
Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
207,6
SAS AB SEK 2019
220,4
Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
61,1
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
232,6
Seadrill Ltd USD 2020
Odfjell SE NOK 2015
272,2
177,0
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
179,1
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
305,1
Seadrill Ltd USD 2020
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD…
313,6
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
198,5
200
-156,0
26,5
134,6
250
1 month in local currencies
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD…
291,4
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
Change in local currencies (bp)
6
Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 – priced attractively
• Earlier this month Vestas issued a 7Y
(published on 19 March 2015)
Indicative ASW offer
(bps)
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2016
2017
EUR500m senior unsecured bond – the Vestas
2.75% 2022.
EUR - credit curves
•
Bond documentation/structure (Vestas 2022)
includes the following key terms: Cross default,
negative pledge (save for carve-out of up to
EUR150m as permitted secured debt and/or
assets securing non-recourse debt), change of
control put (>50% of control/shares).
•
We are not aware of the terms present in the
EUR1,000m bank RCF facilities, which are
likely stricter than the bond terms.
•
Given our view of Vestas as a ‘BBB-’ credit ,we
regard the current pricing as attractive.
•
In our view, a ‘fair’ credit spread for this type of
bond would be in the range of 130-150bp.
•
Our ‘fair spread assessment’ is estimated as
the 7Y EUR BBB- curve plus a 60-80bp
discount due to the lack of an official credit
rating and the inherently politically-driven
volatility in the business model.
VWSDC '22 (NR/NR)
Global BB+
Corporates: BBB-
2018
2019
Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s, Danske Bank Markets
2020
2021
2022
2023
7
Recent trade ideas
Type
Outright
Trade
Buy Vestas 2022
Idea
Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 trades cheap to a EUR
corporate BBB curve.
Opened
Start spread
Currency trade
Close of trade SSAB
Recent performance by the SSAB EUR bond has closed
the 19bp gap between the EUR and SEK
2019 bonds.
FRN Tallink 2018 in NOK trades cheap to a global
median ‘BB - ’ credit curve ( converted into NOK )
Outright
Buy Tallink 2018
Outright
CITCON '3.75
We believe that CITCON'3.75s trade at an attractive
level relative to the 'BBB' curve
EGASDK '20
EGASDK '20s, which we see as 'B' indicatively trade way
too cheap relative to the industrial 'B' curve
Sector spread
Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB
AT1
Curve spread
Swith from SECUSS '17 to
SECUSS '21
Outright
SASSS '17
We have an ‘overweight’ rating on SEB and an
‘underweight’ rating on Nordea and don’t believe
a 14bp pick-up for a four year maturity extension is fair.
The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBBcurve while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the
BBB+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas 2021
We believe the SAS 2017 offers attractive absolute
value – supported by adequate liquidity
Closed
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Outright
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
19/03/2015
245
10/03/2015
-2
27/02/2015
470
10/02/2015
109
02/02/2015
661
26/01/2015
-8
23/01/2015
81
18/12/2014
807
See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations
Source: Danske Bank Markets
8
Company news from the past week
Name
Carlsberg
Fortum
News
Carlsberg (Marketweight): Moodys (Baa2/Negative) kept its negative outlook on Carlsberg Breweries
following release of its 2014 annual report. This reflects weak metrics for the current Baa2 rating
combined with downside risk associated with a further devaluation of the RUB and the uncertainties
associated with Carlsberg’s ability to contain profit deterioration. Moody’s sees Carlsberg’s adjusted
debt to EBITDA at 3.4x end-2014 as above the boundary for the current rating (comfortably below
3.0x). We note that Carlsberg has guided for leverage to decline in 2015 and for reported net debt to
EBITDA to be below 2.5x at end-2015 vs 2.7x at end-2014. Hence, this guided improvement in
leverage is not certain to be enough to prevent a downgrade from Moody’s. However, if Carlsberg gets
close to Moody’s threshold at end-2015, despite very difficult market conditions in Russia we do not
expect a downgrade. We keep our Marketweight rating on Carlsberg and we do not expect Moody's
confirming its negative outlook to have any market impact (Fitch BBB/S). The Carlsberg 19 bond
trades at the BBB- corporate curve while the 22 and 24 trade wider. Hence, a one-notch downgrade
is already discounted, in our view. However, investors are naturally worried about a potential
nationalisation of the Russian assets (Eastern Europe is 40% of group invested capital - Russia is
around 85% of this) which is likely to take Carlsberg into high-yield territory (virtually no debt in RUB).
We expect Eastern Europe to account for less than 20% of group operating profit in 2015. However,
we see it as comforting that Carlsberg is guiding for no M&A in the short term, lower capex and lower
net debt to EBITDA in 2015 despite difficult conditions. This illustrates its concern for its credit
metrics. We keep our Marketweight rating.
Following Fortum’s (UW) announcement that it has agreed to divest its Swedish distribution grid for
EUR6.6bn, S&P put Fortum’s ‘A-’ rating on watch negative (from negative outlook). The watch negative
reflects the fact that Fortum’s business risk profile will be somewhat weakened, as Fortum is parting
with the stable part of its earnings base (regulated distribution). Fortum announced that it will revise
its net debt to EBITDA target to 2.5x from 3x to offset the weakened business risk profile, but S&P
argued that this might not be enough to defend the rating. S&P will use the next three months to
evaluate the prospects for Fortum’s business and financial risk profiles before deciding whether to
downgrade or not. What remains to be seen is how Fortum will relever from here, being net cash
when the proceeds from the divestments filter through to the balance sheet. Will it be extraordinary
dividends and/or extra capex and if so, extra capex directed at what?. S&P’s action was more
aggressive than we expected and should have negative implications for Fortum spreads.
Implication
Credit Neutral
Credit Negative
Source: Danske Bank Markets
9
Company news from the past week
Volvo
Danish banks
Volvo (MW): Monthly delivery figures for February. Deliveries were up 32% y/y in North America and
13% in Europe y/y. According to Volvo, the higher deliveries in the US and Europe were a result of the
better economic environment. In South America, deliveries declined by 73% mainly as a result of a
weak economy and much stricter terms for financing (Brazil has cut subsidies for truck financing).
The overall effect was a decline of 1% y/y, which was slightly better than consensus expectations. In
terms of implications for the credit, the news is neutral overall as Volvo's key issue is still getting its
overall level of profitability closer to its peers. We have a Marketweight rating on Volvo.
The Danish central bank raised the current account limit from DKK37bn to DKK145bn last
Wednesday to ease the pressure on the banks from the negative interest rates. It then raised the
limit further yesterday to DKK173bn in order to offer a larger amount for the smaller Danish banks.
Combined, these actions will mean an increase of around DKK1bn in NII for the Danish banks on an
annualised basis (0.75% on DKK136bn of deposits at the central bank). Not a major impact, but still
positive. Danske Bank has access to c.28% of the current account limit, Nordea c21%, Jyske Bank
c.6% and finally Sydbank, Spar Nord, SHB and Nykredit c.5% each. 84 banks in total have access to
the current account at the Danish central bank.
Credit Neutral
Credit Positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
10
Selected new issues
Selected new issues
Date
20/03/2015
18/03/2015
17/03/2015
16/03/2015
20/03/2015
17/03/2015
Issuer
Kering
Repsol Intl Finance
Volkswagen Intl Fin Nv
Statkraft As
Swiss Re
Jyske Bank
Coupon
0.875%
3.875%
2.5%
1.5%
1.65%
FRN
CCY
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
Volume
500 m
1 000 m
1 100 m
500 m
1.75bn
500m
Maturity
Mar/22
PNC6
PNC7
Mar/30
PNC10
Mar/18
S&P / Mdy / Fitch
/ /
/ (P)Ba1 / BB+e
/ Baa1 /
A- / Baa1 /
//
A-/ /
ASW/DM
60
381
220
75
205
35
Note: Issues from Repsol, VWS and Swiss Re are hybrids.
Source: Danske Bank Markets
11
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns
Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices
IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100
Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices
HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
12
Chart pack: relative value
iTraxx vs iBoxx
EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks
Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)
Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
13
Chart pack: general market development
European swap and government yields
3M TED-spread, US and euro area
Euro swap curve spread
EUR/USD basis swaps
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
14
Chart pack: fund flows
Europe, net sales
US, net sales
Sweden, net sales
Norway, net sales
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
15
Chart pack: macro
GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted
Purchasing Manager Indices
Euro area y/y change in bank lending
Euro area lending standards
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
16
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Ahlstrom Oyj
Akelius Residential Property Ab
Ambu A/S
Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S
Arla Foods Amba
Atlas Copco Ab
Avinor As
Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As
Bank Norwegian As
Beerenberg Holdco Ii As
Billerudkorsnas Ab
Bw Offshore
Cargotec Oyj
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Cermaq Asa
Citycon Oyj
Color Group As
Com Hem Holding Ab
Danfoss A/S
Danske Bank A/S
Dfds A/S
Dlg Finance As
Dna Ltd
Dnb Bank Asa
Dong Energy A/S
Dsv A/S
Eg Holding
Eika Boligkreditt As
Eika Gruppen As
Electrolux Ab
Elenia Oy
Elisa Oyj
Rating
B+
BBBBBBBBB+
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
Stable
BBBStable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
Stable
BB-
Stable
BBB
B
ABBB
Moody's
Rating Outlook
BBB+
Stable
Baa1
Stable
A
AA-
Stable
Stable
A2
A1
Stable
Stable
Baa2
Neg
Fitch
Rating Outlook
Stable
BBB+
BBB
B
BBBBB+
BBB-
BBBBBBBB-
S&P
Rating Outlook
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
BBBBB
A
Stable
Stable
Neg
A3
Stable
BBB
Stable
A
Stable
B+
Stable
Stable
Stable
A+
BBB+
Stable
Stable
A1
Baa1
BBB
Stable
Wr
BBB
Pos
Baa2
Neg
Stable
BBB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
WD
Stable
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
Mads Rosendal
Louis Landeman
Jakob Magnussen
Brian Børsting
MARKET WEIGHT
Mads Rosendal
Mads Rosendal
UNDERWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
MARKET WEIGHT
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Øyvind Mossige
Mads Rosendal
Øyvind Mossige
Mads Rosendal
Brian Børsting
MARKET WEIGHT
Knut-Ivar Bakken
Emil Hjalmarsson
Niklas Ripa
Ola Heldal
Jakob Magnussen
Niklas Ripa
Mads Rosendal
Ola Heldal
T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT
Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT
Brian Børsting
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
MARKET WEIGHT
Jakob Magnussen
OVERWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
OVERWEIGHT
17
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Ahlstrom Oyj
Akelius Residential Property Ab
Ambu A/S
Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S
Arla Foods Amba
Atlas Copco Ab
Avinor As
Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As
Bank Norwegian As
Beerenberg Holdco Ii As
Billerudkorsnas Ab
Bw Offshore
Cargotec Oyj
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Cermaq Asa
Citycon Oyj
Color Group As
Com Hem Holding Ab
Danfoss A/S
Danske Bank A/S
Dfds A/S
Dlg Finance As
Dna Ltd
Dnb Bank Asa
Dong Energy A/S
Dsv A/S
Eg Holding
Eika Boligkreditt As
Eika Gruppen As
Electrolux Ab
Elenia Oy
Elisa Oyj
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Rating
B+
BBBBBBBBB+
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
Stable
BBBStable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
Stable
BB-
Stable
BBB
B
ABBB
Moody's
Rating Outlook
BBB+
Stable
Baa1
Stable
A
AA-
Stable
Stable
A2
A1
Stable
Stable
Baa2
Neg
Fitch
Rating Outlook
Stable
BBB+
BBB
B
BBBBB+
BBB-
BBBBBBBB-
S&P
Rating Outlook
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
BBBBB
A
Stable
Stable
Neg
A3
Stable
BBB
Stable
A
Stable
B+
Stable
Stable
Stable
A+
BBB+
Stable
Stable
A1
Baa1
BBB
Stable
Wr
BBB
Pos
Baa2
Neg
Stable
BBB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
WD
Stable
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
Mads Rosendal
Louis Landeman
Jakob Magnussen
Brian Børsting
MARKET WEIGHT
Mads Rosendal
Mads Rosendal
UNDERWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
MARKET WEIGHT
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Øyvind Mossige
Mads Rosendal
Øyvind Mossige
Mads Rosendal
Brian Børsting
MARKET WEIGHT
Knut-Ivar Bakken
Emil Hjalmarsson
Niklas Ripa
Ola Heldal
Jakob Magnussen
Niklas Ripa
Mads Rosendal
Ola Heldal
T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT
Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT
Brian Børsting
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
MARKET WEIGHT
Jakob Magnussen
OVERWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
OVERWEIGHT
18
Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Danske Bank
Company
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec
Entra Eiendom As
AStable
Farstad Shipping Asa
BB
Neg
BBFingrid Oyj
Finnair Oyj
BB
Stable
Fortum Oyj
Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab
Fred Olsen Energy Asa
BB
Stable
BBG4S Plc
Getinge Ab
BB+
Neg
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd
BHeimstaden Ab
BB
Stable
BBHemso Fastighets Ab
BBB+
Stable
BBB
Hkscan Oyj
BB
Stable
Hoist Kredit Ab
BBStable
B+
Husqvarna Ab
BBBPos
Ikano Bank Ab
BBB
Stable
Investor Ab
Iss A/S
J Lauritzen A/S
B
Stable
BJernhusen Ab
AStable
Jyske Bank A/S
Kesko Oyj
BBB
Stable
Klaveness Ship Holding As
BBStable
B+
Loomis Ab
BBBStable
Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab
BBB+
Stable
Meda Ab
BBStable
Metsa Board Oyj
Metso Oyj
Ncc Ab
BBBStable
Neste Oil Oyj
BBBStable
Nokia Oyj
Nokian Renkaat Oyj
BBB+
Stable
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Fitch
Rating Outlook
A+
Stable
A1
Stable
A+
Stable
ABBB+
Neg
Stable
A2
Neg
A-
Neg
BBB-
Stable
AABBB-
Stable
Stable
A1
Stable
A-
Stable
Baa1
Neg
BB
BBB
Stable
Stable
B1
Baa2
Pos
Stable
BB
Pos
Ba2
Pos
BB
Stable
Analyst(s)
Ola Heldal
Øyvind Mossige
Jakob Magnussen
Brian Børsting
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
Sondre Stormyr
Louis Landeman
Emil Hjalmarsson
Brian Børsting
Gabriel Bergin
Emil Hjalmarsson
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
Brian Børsting
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Gabriel Bergin
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
Mads Rosendal
Emil Hjalmarsson
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Jakob Magnussen
Recomm.
MARKET WEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
19
Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd
Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa
Norwegian Property Asa
Nykredit Bank A/S
Nynas Group
Ocean Yield Asa
Odfjell Se
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa
Olympic Shipping As
Orkla Asa
Outokumpu Oyj
Pohjola Bank Oyj
Posten Norge As
Postnord Ab
Prosafe Se
Ramirent Oyj
Sampo Oyj
Sandnes Sparebank
Sandvik Ab
Sas Ab
Sbab Bank Ab
Scania Ab
Schibsted Asa
Seadrill Ltd
Securitas Ab
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab
Skanska Ab
Skf Ab
Sognekraft As
Solstad Offshore Asa
Spar Nord Bank A/S
Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As
Rating
BBBBBBB-
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Neg
B+
Stable
B+
Stable
B+
BB
B+
BBB+
B+
BBB+
B
Stable
ABBB+
BB
BB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BBB
BB
Stable
Stable
Stable
Pos
Pos
Stable
Neg
BBB+
Stable
BBB
BBBBB+
A-
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Fitch
Rating Outlook
A+
Neg
Baa2U
Stable
A
Stable
AA-
Neg
Aa3
Neg
A+
Stable
Baa2
Stable
B+
BBB
B
BBB
BA
A-
Neg
Stable
Neg
Stable
Wr
A2
Stable
Neg
BBB
A+
Stable
Neg
Wr
A1
Neg
BBB+
Neg
Baa1
Stable
BB-
BBB
B+
Aaa
A+
Pos
Analyst(s)
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
Ola Heldal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Jakob Magnussen
Øyvind Mossige
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Ola Heldal
Øyvind Mossige
Ola Heldal
Mads Rosendal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Ola Heldal
Gabriel Bergin
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Ola Heldal
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Emil Hjalmarsson
Mads Rosendal
Jakob Magnussen
Øyvind Mossige
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Recomm.
MARKET WEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
20
Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Sparebank 1 Nord Norge
Sparebank 1 Smn
Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa
Sponda Oyj
St1 Nordic Oy
Statkraft Sf
Statnett Sf
Statoil Asa
Steen & Strom As
Stena Ab
Stockmann Oyj Abp
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
Stora Enso Oyj
Storebrand Bank Asa
Sunnfjord Energi As
Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab
Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca
Svenska Handelsbanken Ab
Swedavia Ab
Swedbank Ab
Swedish Match Ab
Sydbank A/S
Saab Ab
Tallink Group As
Tdc A/S
Teekay Offshore Partners Lp
Tele2 Ab
Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson
Telenor Asa
Teliasonera Ab
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Rating
BBBBB
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Moody's
Rating Outlook
A2
Neg
A2
Neg
A2
Neg
Fitch
Rating Outlook
A
Stable
AStable
AStable
Stable
Stable
BBB+
Stable
B+
BB+
Stable
Stable
BBB+
BBBABBB
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
A-
S&P
Rating Outlook
AA+
AA-
Stable
Stable
Stable
Aaa
Wr
Aa2
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
Stable
B2
Stable
BB
BBB+
Stable
Neg
Ba2
Baa2
Stable
Neg
AAA-
Stable
Neg
Baa1
Aa3
Stable
Neg
A+
BBB
Neg
Stable
A1
Baa2
Baa1
Wr
BBB
Neg
BBB+
A
ABBB
Stable
Stable
Stable
Neg
BB
WD
BBB-
AA-
Stable
Neg
Stable
Neg
A+
Pos
Baa3
Stable
BBB
Neg
Baa1
A3
A3
Wr
Stable
Stable
Neg
BBB+
Stable
ABBB
Stable
Stable
Stable
BBB+
BB
Stable
Stable
BBBBB
Stable
Stable
BBB+
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Emil Hjalmarsson
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Niklas Ripa
Mads Rosendal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Mads Rosendal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Gabriel Bergin
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Emil Hjalmarsson
Niklas Ripa
Ola Heldal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Jakob Magnussen
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
21
Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Thon Holding As
Tine Sa
Upm-Kymmene Oyj
Vasakronan Ab
Vattenfall Ab
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Victoria Park Ab
Volvo Ab
Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa
Yit Oyj
Rating
BBB+
BBB+
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
Stable
A-
Stable
BBBBB-
Pos
Stable
BBBB
Stable
Neg
S&P
Rating
Outlook
Moody's
Rating
Outlook
Fitch
Rating
Outlook
BB+
Stable
Ba1
Stable
WD
A-
Stable
A3
Stable
A-
Neg
BBB
Neg
Baa2
Neg
BBB
Stable
B+
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Mads Rosendal
MARKET WEIGHT
Emil Hjalmarsson
Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT
Niklas Ripa
OVERWEIGHT
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
MARKET WEIGHT
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Emil Hjalmarsson
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
22
Fixed Income Credit Research team
Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst
Head of Credit Research
+45 45 12 85 05
[email protected]
Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst
Industrials
+45 45 12 85 19
[email protected]
Ola Heldal, Analyst
TMT
+47 85 40 84 33
[email protected]
Louis Landeman, Analyst
TMT, Industrials
+46 8 568 80524
[email protected]
Lars Holm, Senior Analyst
Financials
+45 45 12 80 41
[email protected]
Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst
Offshore Rigs
+47 85 40 70 70
[email protected]
Mads Rosendal, Analyst
Industrials, Pulp & Paper
+46 8 568 80594
[email protected]
Gabriel Bergin, Analyst
Strategy, Industrials
+46 8 568 80602
[email protected]
Henrik René Andresen, Analyst
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 13 33 27
[email protected]
Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst
Utilities, Energy
+45 45 12 85 03
[email protected]
Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst
High Yield, Industrials
+45 45 12 80 47
[email protected]
Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst
Oil Services
+47 85 40 54 91
[email protected]
Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst
Fish Farming
+47 85 40 70 74
[email protected]
Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst
Shipping
+47 85 40 70 72
[email protected]
Emil Hjalmarsson, Analyst
Real Estate, Construction
+46 8 568 80634
[email protected]
23
Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is
Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst.
Analyst certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the
research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further
certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
expressed in the research report.
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Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.
The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts’ rules of ethics and the
recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.
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Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research
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Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not
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See http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer for further disclosures and information.
24
General disclaimer
This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant
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The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date
hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor
of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report.
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25
Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States
This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant
to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution
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but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction.
Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting
Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of nonU.S. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
26