Centre for the Study of Civil War

20 03
2 0 12
Annual R eport 2012
Independent • International • Interdisciplinary
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW)
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
PO Box 9229 Grønland, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway
Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 7
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
PO Box 9229 Grønland, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway
Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 7
Editor : Agnete Schjønsby/Andrew John Feltham
Language Editor : Carville Language Services
Design: www.medicineheads.com
ISBN: 978-82-7288-501-3
The United Nations Mission
in Liberia (UNMIL) on patrol in
Gbarnga in central Liberia
Photo: Mark Naftalin, PRIO
CSCW Staff List 2012
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
II
Rusting Soviet tanks in the Ukraine
Photo: Pavel Itkin/paul_itk.livejournal.com
Director
Scott Gates
Working Group
Leaders
Halvard Buhaug
Sabine Carey
Jeffrey Checkel
Jon Elster
Håvard Hegre
Ola Listhaug
Karl Ove Moene
Kaare Strøm
Tapas Kundu
Päivi Paulina Lujala
Ragnhild Nordås
Peter Gufu Oba
Gudrun Østby
Sabrina Ramet
Patrick M. Regan
Øystein H. Rolandsen
Siri Camilla Aas Rustad
Håvard Strand
Henrik Urdal
Nils Weidmann
Researchers
Tor Arve
Benjaminsen
Helga Malmin Binningsbø
Marit Brochmann
Erica Chenoweth
David Cunningham
Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Nils Petter Gleditsch
Bjørn Høyland
Research
Associates
Jens Chr. Andvig
Aysegul Aydin
Pavel Baev
Steven J. Brams
Christopher K. Butler
Matthew Carlson
Royce Carroll
Lars-Erik Cederman
Paul Collier
Julian Detzel
Indra de Soysa
Han Dorussen
Kendra Dupuy
Tanja Ellingsen
Stein Sundstøl Eriksen
Joan Esteban
James Fearon
Hanne Fjelde
Kathryn Furlong
Diego Gambetta
Mark Gibney
Anke Hoeffler
Stephen Holmes
Jeremy Horowitz
Cindy Horst
Simon Hug
Craig J. Jenkins
Stathis Kalyvas
Carl-Henrik Knutsen
Åshild Kolås
Bethany Ann Lacina
Wenche Larsen
David Lektzian
Jo Thori Lind
Sarah Lischer
Will Lowe
Halvor Mehlum
Erik Melander
Jason Miklian
Wolfgang C. Müller
S. Mansoob Murshed
Eric Neumayer
Magnus Öberg
Roger Petersen
Thomas Plümper
James B. Pugel
Arvid Raknerud
Clionadh Raleigh
Bjørn Erik Rasch
Debraj Ray
Kristen Ringdal
James Robinson
Jan Ketil Rød
Kaushik Roy
Bruce Russett
Idean Salehyan
Todd Sandler
Gerald Schneider
Albert Simkus
Stergios Skaperdas
Astri Suhrke
Isak Svensson
Henrik Syse
Will Terry
Jakana Thomas
Stein Tønnesson
Ragnar Torvik
Hilde Henriksen Waage
Barbara Walter
Leonard Wantchekon
Fredrik Willumsen
Elisabeth Wood
Marie-Joëlle Zahar
Doctoral Students
Ingrid Marie Beidlid
Primus Che Chi
Marianne Dahl
Karin Dyrstad
Kristian Hoelscher
Helge Holtermann
Joakim Karlsen
Martin Austvoll Nome
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Christin Marsh Ormhaug
Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Rune Slettebak
Ole Magnus Theisen
Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Tore Wig
MA Students
Idunn Kristiansen
Øyvind Stiansen
Visiting
Researchers
Henrikas Bartusevicius
Katherine Edelen
Elisabeth Gilmore
Anita Gohdes
Blake McMahon
Kazuhiro Obayashi
Sabine Otto
Philip Schrodt
Matthew Wilson
Research
Assistants
Jonas Nordkvelle
Gerdis Wischnath
Administration
Andrew John Feltham
Director’s
Introduction
Among the most noteworthy new grants awarded
during 2012, were the following projects (which
will outlive the Centre): ‘Strategic Justice During
Civil Conflict’ led by Helga Malmin Binningsbø
and Cyanne Loyle (West Virginia), funded by
the US National Science Foundation and the
US Institute of Peace; ‘Conflict Strategies and
Violence’ led by Kristian Skrede Gleditsch,
funded by the European Research Council (ERC);
‘Sexual Violence in Civil Conflict (SVAC)’ led
by Inger Skjelsbæk, funded by the Research
Council of Norway; ‘Urbanization, Exclusion,
and Climate Change’ led by Halvard Buhaug,
funded by the Research Council of Norway’s
INDNOR project for research in India; and
‘Future of Warfare’ headed by Scott Gates,
funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Defence.
During 2012, the CSCW continued to host globally renowned scholars. Nils Weidmann was at
PRIO until October with a Marie Curie fellowship from the EU. Senior Fulbright Scholar,
Phil Schrodt (Penn State) spent the first half of
the year at the Centre. Kathrine Edelen visited
on a junior Fulbright scholarship. Next in line
with Fulbright scholarships are Ivan ArreguinToft (Boston University and Oxford) and Monica
Toft (Oxford), who will be in residence in 2013.
The Senior Fulbright scholars associated with
CSCW were Patrick Regan, Christian Davenport, David Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher
Cunningham, Craig Jenkins, and Phil Schrodt.
Two graduate students, Matthew Wilson (Penn
State) and Blake McMahon (University of
California, San Diego) spent substantial time at
PRIO. Matt and Blake, along with several other
American scholars (one senior scholar and
five graduate students) received Leiv Eiriksson
mobility program grants to support their visits.
These scholars have enhanced the Centre’s
already strong international network and
contributed substantially to the intellectual life
at CSCW.
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
2012 was the tenth and
final year of Centre of
Excellence funding from
the Research Council of
Norway. Over these ten
years we have engaged in
the multidisciplinary study
of why civil wars break out,
how they are sustained,
and what it takes to end
them and to preserve a civil
peace. This Annual Report
summarizes the year’s
events and presents highlights of ten years of CSCW
research on civil war.
III
CSCW Director Scott Gates
Photo: Andrew John Feltham, PRIO
We are extremely grateful to the Research Council
of Norway for their support of this Centre of
Excellence. CSCW is no longer, but the ideas
and networks developed over the past ten years
remain an integral part of PRIO.
Findings and
Achievements
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
IV
In the following, we Global trends in conflict present an attempt to since World War II
summarize ten years of • Declining incidence of civil conflict
(peak in 1991–92).
research at the Centre for • Declining severity of civil conflict
(peak in early 1950s).
the Study of Civil War. • Remarkable waning of interstate conflict
Various highlights have after the Cold War.
Bethany & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2005.
been grouped into several • Lacina,
‘Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New
broad themes, which are Dataset of Battle Deaths’, European Journal of
Population 21(2–3): 145–166.
then exemplified by a
selection of key articles: Global warming and armed conflict
•
•
Little evidence that climate variability and extreme events increase risk or severity of civil war (i.e. between a state and a non-state group).
More evidence suggesting that climate
variability may affect non-state conflicts.
•
•
Buhaug, Halvard, 2010. ‘Climate Not To Blame
for African Civil Wars’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107(38): 16477–16482.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 2012. ‘Whither
the Weather? Climate Change and Conflict’,
Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 3–9.
The demographics
of civil conflict
•
Youth bulges (societies with disproportionate shares of youth and young adults) are often associated with higher risks of conflict; however, if such societies can avoid armed conflict, they can harness high economic growth rates.
• Urdal, Henrik, 2006. ‘A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence’, Interna-
tional Studies Quarterly 50: 607–629.
Economic development and civil war
•
•
•
Extensive poverty is the most robustly
significant factor associated with civil conflict.
Economic growth significantly decreases
the risk of civil conflict.
Inequality between groups, not between
individuals, drives conflict.
• Hegre, Håvard & Nicholas Sambanis, 2006.
‘Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on
Civil War Onset’, Journal of Conflict Resolution
50(4): 508–535.
• Østby, Gudrun, 2008. ‘Polarization, Horizontal
Inequalities, and Violent Civil Conflict’, Journal of
Peace Research 45(2): 143–162.
• Cederman, Lars-Erik; Nils B. Weidmann &
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2011. ‘Horizontal
Inequalities and Ethno-Nationalist Civil War’,
American Political Science Review 105(3):
457–477.
Development conse-
quences of civil war
•
•
Civil war unambiguously harms economic development.
Children suffer most from civil war, as safe drinking water is threatened, infant and under-five mortality rates go up, maternal health deteriorates, education and poverty levels disproportionately affect children.
•
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre, Håvard Nygård & Håvard Strand, 2012. ‘The Development
Consequences of Civil Conflict’,
World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Shifting political attitudes and conflict
•
•
•
Religious differences are not inherently conflictive.
States’ repressive policies are significantly associated with turning social cleavages violent – elites drive hostility between groups.
Democratic values carry the same meaning across cultures and societies: a survey of 55 countries supports the notion that concepts
of human rights and democracy are shared – they are not just culturally universal.
Sexual violence in armed conflict
•
•
•
Not all conflict actors engage in sexual
violence.
Most sexual violence is caused by regular
uniformed military forces – not rebels and not pro-government militias.
Sexual violence patterns do not correspond
to death patterns in war. Sexual violence also
continues after ceasefire agreements,
constituting a ‘missing peace’ in many
post-conflict environments.
• Wood, Elisabeth, 2006. ‘Variation in Sexual
Violence During War’, Politics & Society
34(3): 307–342.
Political institutions and civil conflict
•
•
The combination of abundant natural
resources and weak political institutions
leads to conflict.
Political stability is strongly related to the
configuration of institutions.
• Mehlum, Halvor; Karl Ove Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. ‘Institutions and the Resource Curse’, The Economic Journal 116: 1–20.
• Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre, Mark Jones &
Håvard Strand, 2006. ‘Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability’, American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 893–908.
Advances in theory
and method
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
• Carlson, Matthew & Ola Listhaug, 2007.
‘Citizens’ Perceptions of Human Rights
Practices: An Analysis of 55 Countries’, Journal of Peace Research 44(4): 465–483.
• De Soysa, Indra & Ragnhild Nordås, 2007. ‘Bloody Innards? Religion and Political Terror, 1980–2000’, International Studies Quarterly 51(4): 927–943.
• Prediction – computationally predicting
long-term conflict trends.
• Social norms and emotions – to understand
the microfoundations of conflict.
• Dynamic processes in organizational
and social networks.
• Hegre, Håvard; Joakim Karlsen, Håvard Mokleiv
Nygård, Henrik Urdal & Håvard Strand, 2013.
‘Predicting Armed Conflict, 2011–2050’,
International Studies Quarterly, forthcoming.
• Petersen, Roger, 2011. The Strategic Use of Emotion in Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2011).
• Checkel, Jeffrey T. (ed.), 2011. Transnational
Dynamics of Civil War Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2011).
V
Data, disaggregation
and innovation
• PRIO-GRID and ACLED – two datasets:
• Extensive collection and use of geo referenced conflict data.
• Development of a unique framework
of civil conflict.
• ACLED collects real-time data for selected high-risk states in Africa.
• Advanced Conflict Data Catalogue (ACDC):
• PRIO and Uppsala University collaboration
on a global conflict database.
• Datasets on armed conflict, governance, power-sharing institutions, post-conflict justice, pro-government militia, sexual
violence, resource location (diamonds,
petroleum), economic and socio demographic data.
• Buhaug, Halvard & Jan Ketil Rød, 2006. ‘Local
Determinants of African Civil Wars,
1970–2001’, Political Geography 25(3): 315–335.
• Raleigh, Clionadh & Håvard Hegre, 2009.
‘Population, Size, and Civil War: A Geographi cally Disaggregated Analysis’, Political
Geography 28(4): 224–238.
•Tollefsen, Andreas F., Håvard Strand & Halvard
Buhaug, 2012. ‘PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial
Data Structure’, Journal of Peace Research
49(2): 363–374.
Photo: Jason Miklian, PRIO
Findings and
Achievements
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
International visibility
CSCW has been highly international from its
very conception, and has contributed significantly to placing PRIO, the host institution, at
the international forefront in research on peace
and conflict. The CSCW director is American,
while both a Russian and a German have played
prominent leadership roles. Six senior Fulbright
scholars (from Binghamton University, University of Notre Dame, Ohio State University, Iowa
VI State University [2] and Penn State University)
and one junior Fulbright scholar spent extended
periods of time at PRIO as CSCW associates.
Indeed, the Fulbright office in Norway has noted
the Centre’s high level of success in attracting
top American scholars – which has been greater
than that of any other institution in Norway. In
turn, Leiv Eiriksson mobility programme grants
have provided opportunities for several Centre
scholars to visit US academic institutions,
such as the University of California, San Diego
(UCSD), New York University and the University
of Maryland. Several US scholars (one senior
scholar and a number of graduate students) also
received Leiv Eiriksson mobility programme
grants. In addition to Americans, scholars from
the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, South
Korea, Russia, India, Argentina and Colombia
were also hosted for long-term periods.
CSCW affiliates and collaborators have included
faculty members from: (USA) Stanford, Yale,
Michigan, Harvard, MIT, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa State, Florida State, Rice, Houston,
West Virginia, North Texas, Texas Tech, North
Carolina, Duke, New Mexico, Penn State and
Washington; (Canada) Laval, Montreal, McGill,
Vancouver and Simon Fraser; (UK) York,
Nottingham, London, UCL, Sussex, Essex,
Oxford and LSE; (Sweden) Gothenburg and
Uppsala; (Denmark) Århus and Copenhagen;
(Switzerland) ETH (Zurich) and Geneva; (Spain)
Barcelona; (Netherlands) ISS and Utrecht; (South
Korea) Hankuk University of Foreign Studies
(HUFS); (Japan) Hitotsubashi and Kobe; (India)
JNU, Presidency and Jadavpur; and (Colombia)
Colombia National University.
CSCW also hosted a number of graduate student
visitors from: University of California, San Diego
(UCSD), Harvard, Essex, Konstanz, Mannheim,
Berlin, ETH (Zurich), Pitt, MIT, Yale, Stanford,
Columbia, Binghamton, Notre Dame, Maryland,
North Carolina, Duke, Penn State and George
Washington. UCSD in particular regularly sent
graduate students (7) to PRIO over the past ten
years. The Centre also hosted Marie Curie EU
postdoctoral and doctoral scholars from, respectively, Germany and Cameroon. CSCW doctoral
students have spent extended stays at: Harvard
University, NYU, UCSD, the University of Maryland, Uppsala University, University of Konstanz,
university of Oxford and University of Essex.
CSCW served as a node and work package leader
on EU 6th and 7th framework agreements.
The 6th framework agreement grant involved
Barcelona, LSE, Toulouse, Milan, Utrecht and
PRIO. The 7th framework grant included Berlin,
Hamburg, Vienna, the Institute for Social
Studies (The Hague), Prague and PRIO. We also
received an European Science Foundation grant
for a project involving ETH in Zurich, University
of Essex and PRIO.
PRIO scholars have been invited to provide
presentations at the Institute for Defence and
Strategic Analyses (New Delhi), the Juan March
Institute in Madrid, the Aspen Institute, the
Soros Foundation, the World Bank and the UN,
among many other institutions and universities.
Nils Petter Gleditsch also served as the president of the International Studies Association in
2008–09.
Innovations
As a social science-based centre, CSCW has
engaged in some significant innovations. The
first concerns the development of a global
geographically disaggregated data structure.
Most conflict data are national in scope, primarily
relating national economic and political statistics. PRIO-GRID is a vector grid network with a
resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 decimal degrees, covering
all terrestrial areas of the world. PRIO-GRID
offers a standardized structure for storing,
manipulating and analysing high-resolution
spatial data. Gridded data comprise inherently
apolitical entities: the grid cells are fixed in time
and space, they are insensitive to political boundaries and developments, and they are completely
exogenous to likely features of interest, such as
civil war outbreak, ethnic settlement patterns,
extreme weather events or the spatial distribution of wealth. Moreover, unlike other disaggregated approaches, gridded data may be scaled
up or down in a consistent manner by varying
the resolution of the grid. This data structure
allows researchers to readily and easily examine
geo-referenced data to study the effects of local
factors on civil conflict.
CSCW also received an Infrastruktur grant from
the Research Council of Norway to develop a
data-coding protocol and archiving standard for
conflict data. PRIO already collaborates extensively with the University of Uppsala in producing
conflict data. The ACDC project provides a
method of standardization for linking datasets and coding new conflict-related variables.
Societal challenges and the
Centre
Civil war is an obvious societal challenge, not
only to communities in conflict, but also to global
security at large. CSCW researchers have actively
engaged in policy debates as critical experts. Our
research on declining conflict trends counters
a common perception held by the news media
that we live in an ever more conflictive world.
The fact is that the number of wars is declining,
while numbers of battle deaths have declined
even more precipitously. In his award-winning
book on the decline of violence, Steven Pinker
extensively cites PRIO data to demonstrate his
point. Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg cited the decline of violence in his televised
New Year’s speech in 2011.
Halvard Buhaug, with his article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and his
work for the World Bank, have received worldwide publicity as a critical voice regarding the
lack of evidence linking climate change to armed
conflict. In his work on child soldiers, Scott Gates
is able to inform policymakers in terms of how
to develop policies that cater to the special needs
of ex-combatants in post-conflict environments,
and he has also served as an adviser to Save the
Children. Buhaug and Gates’s work with Norwegian Geotechnical Institute on mapping conflict
hotspots proved to be extremely useful to the
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) in its preparations for the delivery of aid to areas affected by
natural disasters. Research conducted for the
World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report on
the consequences of civil war was published in
World Development and reported on in both the
Economist and the Financial Times. In the latter
they analysed the manner and extent to which
civil conflict hurt economic development. And
they found that achievement of the Millennium
Development Goals, such as reducing infant
mortality rates, poverty and providing safe
drinking water, was seriously affected by armed
conflict.
and Jon Elster (Columbia). Strøm, Elster and Ola
Listhaug (NTNU) had no previous background
in conflict studies (let alone civil war research)
when they were recruited to lead working groups
at the Centre. Strøm is an expert in democratic
institutions and parliaments. He was recruited
to examine how political institutions and governance lead to peace. Kaare Strøm and Scott
Gates received National Science Foundation and
Research Council of Norway grants to work on
power-sharing and peace. Elster is a globally
renowned political philosopher. At CSCW, he
examined the microfoundations of civil conflict
as well as transformative justice. Listhaug is a
leading expert on public opinion. Using his links
to Eurobarometer and the World Values Survey,
he was able to develop survey instruments to
examine issues of tolerance, as well as attitudes
towards human rights and democracy. Teaming
up with experts from the Balkans he employed
a series of surveys (including panel designs)
to examine the changing nature of opinions
regarding different ethnic groups in the region.
In Macedonia, the team even employed a panel
survey that examined attitudes before, almost
during and after conflict. This was the first time
that such a study had been conducted in a conflict
zone. Fifty-six doctoral students were supported
in some capacity by CSCW. Seven of them are
now senior researchers at PRIO with permanent
contracts, and four of those are women. Two of
the fifty-six are now research professors at PRIO.
Results that would not have
occurred without Centre of
Excellence funding
Without the Research Council of Norway’s
Centre of Excellence (CoE) programme, CSCW
would not have been able to accomplish nearly
as much as it did. It would have been far less
international in scope, approach and orientation.
Without CoE funds, the director of the Centre for
the Study of Civil War, Scott Gates, a top international scholar in the field, would not have stayed
on at PRIO. He is now employed as a research
professor at PRIO on a permanent contract.
Gates was able to link CSCW to his extensive
network of North American scholars, and the
Fulbright senior fellows that came to PRIO were
and are part of that network.
Furthermore, the prestige of the CoE programme
enabled PRIO to recruit renowned Norwegian
scholars based outside, as well as within Norway,
to work at PRIO, including Kaare Strøm (UCSD)
Organizing the researchers
beyond the Centre of
Excellence period
CSCW will undergo significant and visible
changes following the end of its Centre of
Excellence status. Most markedly, it will lose its
special position as a semi-autonomous part of
PRIO, reverting back to being a part of the larger
organization – one of several departments and VII
administrative divisions within the institute. It
will accordingly have the same reporting and
line-management setup as PRIO’s other two
departments, and its leader will no longer be
an autonomous director, but will act as research
director, as is the case in the other departments.
Beyond this, the organizational setting for individual researchers will not change much, and
the overwhelming majority will continue to
work in a single unit. Researchers at PRIO were
geared towards application to external funding
sources before the creation of the CoE. This
focus was maintained during the CoE period,
and in fact quickly became the main source of
income for the Centre even surpassing the CoE
grant. Having all the Centre researchers focus on
external sources as the main source of funding
for their projects thus represents nothing new
and will facilitated integration into PRIO. The
survival of the Centre’s achievements will now
depend on our continuing success at developing
sound fundable projects, as well as on the future
success of PRIO as a whole.
Editorial Boards with CSCW Participation
American Journal of Political Science
American Political Science Review
British Journal of Political Science
Civil Wars
Cooperation and Conflict
European Journal of International
Relations
European Journal of Philosophy
European Journal of Sociology
European Political Science
Foreign Policy Analysis
Forum for Development Studies
French Politics
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Research on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism brought together researchers from a wide
variety of backgrounds, who in turn interacted
with representatives from the armed forces of a
range of different countries. Significant discussion revolved around how counterterrorism
tactics involving the use of special operations
forces to target suspected terrorists undercut
counterinsurgency’s driving impetus to redress
civilian grievances – in short, how NATO policies in Afghanistan are contradictory. CSCW
researchers were also active in countries torn
by civil war. One example is Colombia, where
CSCW researchers developed close ties with
political leaders and organizations. Building
on these ties, the research focus became more
policy-relevant. In the area of land reform, the
main theoretical achievement has been the elaboration of an often neglected distinction between
transitional and distributive justice. With regard
to constitutional politics, the focus of our discussions has been on whether Colombia’s President Álvaro Uribe was eligible to be re-elected
for one more term (accepted by the Colombian
Constitutional Court) or for two (rejected by the
Court). The ties we established were reflected in
the award in 2009 of a doctorate honoris causa by
the National University of Bogotá to Jon Elster,
the leader of the CSCW working group involved.
In 2011, Elster was also given an award by the
Colombian Constitutional Court.
International Area Studies Review
International Interactions
International Organization
International Studies Perspectives
International Studies Quarterly
International Studies Review
Journal of Ethics & Social Philosophy
Journal of Peace Research
Journal of Military Ethics
Journal of Philosophy
Journal of Politics
Journal of Public Administration
and Management
Nordic Journal of Political Economy
Pacific Focus
Peace Review
Philosophy of the Social Sciences
Political Analysis
Political Geography
Political Science Research and
Methods
Scandinavian Political Studies
Social Science Information
CSCW
Working Groups
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Social Dynamics of Civil War
Leader: Jeffrey Checkel,
Simon Fraser University
Utilizing various theoretical, methodological and disciplinary perspectives, our task
is to explore the social dynamics of civil war,
including norms, emotions, discourses, identity,
social networks, narratives and gender. Can we
shed new light on enduring questions related to
civil conflict – agency and motives, group mobiliVIII zation, post-conflict peacebuilding – by thinking
of the social in new and different ways? Are
there research programmes, bodies of theory or
methodological tools on social dynamics in other
contexts that can teach us something new about
civil wars?
Microfoundations of Civil War
Leader: Jon Elster, Columbia University
Focusing on the individual decisions that lead to
the initiation, continuation or cessation of civil
war, this working group seeks to identify how
root causes of civil war shape the motivations
and constraints of individual action. Centrally
important is what one might call the ‘hermeneutic problem’ of identifying motivations of
leaders and followers in insurgency movements.
How to impute motivations when statements
about motivation may themselves be motivated?
The group will look at the role religion plays in
civil war, and it will study belief formation more
generally in a civil war setting.
Environmental Factors in Civil War
Leader: Halvard Buhaug, PRIO
This group defines the environment in the broad
sense of physical factors that condition human
affairs, such as distance, mountains, rivers,
forest cover and availability of natural resources.
Environmental factors play an important role in
assessing neomalthusian vs. ‘cornucopian’ theories of conflict. What are the effects of resource
scarcity and abundance? Is climate change associated with conflict? What role does cooperation
play vs. conflict in a situation of scarcity? We also
consider the demographic aspect of neomalthusian concerns, as well as ethnic distinctions as
potential causes of conflict and as convenient
ways of organizing conflicts.
Civil Conflict and Economic Performance. Leader: Karl Ove Moene,
University of Oslo
This working group aims at integrating the
effect of conflicts on economic performance and
the role of economic conditions for the onset of
conflicts within formal economic models. This
is an important challenge. It implies a widening
of the scope of economics to integrate social
issues and things that really matter. The group’s
research agenda is built on an implicit criticism of
technocratic mainstream economics for its lack
of a coherent treatment of conflicts and neglect of
social mechanisms. In contrast, this group tries
to make a case for analysis that combines social
and economic factors while acknowledging
their interdependence. The working group is
a ‘joint venture’ of CSCW and of the Centre of
Excellence at the University of Oslo on Equality,
Social Organization, and Performance (ESOP).
Values and Violence
Leader: Ola Listhaug, NTNU
Our study of values, attitudes and public
opinion looks at violent societies and generally peaceful societies, as well as countries
undergoing a transition away from violence.
The main aim is to demonstrate if and how
values are related to violence in societies. One
important empirical focus is the impact of religion, but we also study tolerance, trust, prejudice and respect for human rights, and how
these values vary between countries and relate
to conflicts between groups within societies. In
postwar societies, we study values to assess the
strength of latent conflict.
Civil Peace
Leader: Kaare Strøm, UCSD
The main aim of this group is to explore the conditions that constitute and promote civil peace.
This entails analysing the processes of conflict
resolution as well as the social, economic and
political conditions that lead to civil peace. To
better understand long-term peacebuilding, we
focus on the development of institutions that
can serve to mitigate or supplant the conditions
that cause and sustain armed civil conflict, for
instance transitional governance, transitional
justice and various forms of power-sharing.
Human Rights, Governance and Conflict
Leader: Sabine Carey, University of Mannheim
Conflict and human rights violations are closely
intertwined. During a civil war, torture and political killings are particularly common. But, governing structures also affect the respect shown
by governments for the human rights of their
citizens and influence the dynamics of conflict.
This working group aims to disentangle the
triangular relationship between human rights,
governance and conflict. We focus on the role
of human rights and governing structures during the escalation of conflict, their contribution
to the severity and duration of conflict, and their
role in establishing a viable and secure peace after the cessation of warfare. Our research pays
particular attention to the interaction between
the agents of violence, the harm civilians incur
during conflict and the mediating role of political institutions.
Dynamics of Institutional Change and
Conflict Leader: Håvard Hegre, PRIO
This working group studies the interplay of the
processes of civil war onset and termination,
changes to political institutions, and the societal changes brought about by ‘modernization’.
These changes have closely related explanations.
Democracies fail to prevent conflict in the developing world in part because they are vulnerable to reversals to authoritarian rule – often by
means of violence. Similarly, democratization is
a political conflict that sometimes turns violent.
Socio-economic factors affect strategies and
goals of the parties to the political conflict. At
the same time, political stability affects societal
changes. The group brings together specialists
on different aspects of this nexus, and also seeks
to identify institutions that may lift countries out
of the ‘conflict trap’.
CSCW Doctoral Degree
Projects in 2012
Conflict and Cooperation in International River Basins
Marit Brochmann Dissertation Advisors: Nils Petter Gleditsch (PRIO/NTNU) & Håvard Hegre (University of Oslo/CSCW)
Water is an essential resource for human
survival. It is also of great importance to industrial development and trade. This project builds
on earlier research on conflict and cooperation
in the context of internationally shared rivers,
but extends the focus to examine the overall
interaction process – with conflict and cooperation studied together instead of separately. More
specifically, the project examines whether countries that share rivers interact more – whether
positively or negatively. It also investigates the
effect of signed water treaties on subsequent
water-specific interaction. Through issue-coding
of claims over the use of a river raised by one
state towards another, it looks at specific water
disagreements and whether or not they become
militarized.
Kin-State Intervention in Civil War
Martin Austvoll Nome
Dissertation Advisors: Jeffrey T. Checkel (Simon Fraser University/CSCW) & Scott Gates (PRIO)
Civil wars have been the dominant form of
armed conflict in what will soon be 70 years
since the end of World War II. Civil wars often
attract military interventions by foreign powers.
Among those powers are kin states whose interventions are shaped by their transnational ties to
co-ethnic combatants. This study goes beyond
pointing out that kin states intervene in civil
wars, however, and systematically explores the
different kinds of kin states that intervene and
how, why and under what conditions they come
to do so. The study advances a commitmentproblems theory of kin-state interventions.
Little is known about how individual attitudes are
affected by civil war. Yet, the conflict literature is
full of assumptions, both explicit and implicit,
about how people react to warfare. Using survey
data from the Western Balkans, I examine the
effect of civil war exposure on individual attitudes of ethno-nationalism, reconciliation and
authoritarianism. A main finding is that warfare
has no uniform effect on public opinion, but that
post-conflict countries are dominated by values
that are commonly assumed to be detrimental
to the development of peaceful democracies.
The findings make clear that assumptions about
individual attitudes and behaviour after a violent
conflict must be made with caution.
Climate Changes, Natural Disasters
and the Risk of Violence in India
Rune Slettebak
Dissertation Advisers: Nils Petter Gleditsch
(PRIO/NTNU) & Halvard Buhaug (PRIO/NTNU)
It is often suggested that climate change is
likely to increase the risk of violent conflict, but
robust scientific evidence for such a claim is
lacking. This project analysed whether climaterelated natural disasters (e.g. storms, floods and
droughts) in India, Indonesia and globally have
displayed a systematic connection to the risk of
violent conflict in recent decades. An increase in
the frequency and severity of such disasters is
expected to be among the first adverse impacts
of climate change. Neo-Malthusianism, which
predicts an increase in conflict, is tested against
the less well-known disaster sociology, which
predicts a reduction. The bulk of the evidence
found goes in favour of the latter tradition:
disasters appear more likely to prevent than to
promote violent conflict.
Renewable Resource Scarcity,
Natural Disasters and the Possibility
of Collective Violence
Ole Magnus Theisen
Dissertation Advisers: Nils Petter Gleditsch (PRIO/
NTNU) & Halvard Buhaug (PRIO/NTNU)
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Civil War and the Transformation
of Values Karin Dyrstad
Dissertation Advisers: Ola Listhaug (NTNU/
CSCW) & Halvard Buhaug (PRIO/NTNU)
Completed in 2012
The cross-national conflict literature has failed to
converge on robust associations that could link
resource scarcities with civil war. It has been
suggested that droughts increase the risk of
violent conflict, and that this is most pronounced IX
with smaller-scale local conflicts. This project
uses both single-case and cross-national statistical investigations to analyse the possible relationships between climatic factors, resource scarcities and violent conflict. It includes two quantitative case studies: one of Kenya and the other
of Indonesia. It also includes a global analysis
and three analyses of Africa in general, of which
two have a subnational design. The main finding
is that while there is no relationship between
environmental shocks and civil violence, lowerlevel violence is influenced by resource shocks,
although the risk of such violence appears to
increase or decrease depending on the particular
circumstances.
CSCW Doctoral Degree Projects (continued)
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Ongoing
Prospects for the Future: Towards
Civilizational Clashes?
Tanja Ellingsen Dissertation Advisers:
Nils Petter Gleditsch (PRIO/NTNU) & Øyvind Østerud (University of Oslo)
Samuel Huntington’s ‘clash of civilizations’
thesis suggests that post-Cold War conflicts
X are shaped by cultural dissimilarities, and that
the nation-state is being replaced by religion
as a source of identity. Testing the validity of
such claims, this dissertation investigates the
extent to which people identify themselves in
terms of civilizations and whether alliances
can be explained by cultural similarities. It also
explores the relationship between civilizational
belonging and conflict, both inter- and intrastate.
Data are drawn from the World Value Survey,
the Penn World Tables, UN General Assembly
records (voting data), and the Correlates of War
and Uppsala/PRIO conflict datasets.
Effects of Civil War on Maternal
and Child Health
Christin M. Ormhaug Dissertation
Advisors: Espen Sjaastad (Noragric), Ingrid Nyborg (Noragric) & Henrik Urdal (PRIO)
Much conflict research has focused on why civil
conflicts break out and how they are sustained,
but less attention has been paid to the consequences they have for afflicted populations.
Using household survey data paired with disaggregated conflict data, as well as fieldwork from
South Sudan, this project investigates how civil
conflict has affected maternal and child health
in selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
Its combination of quantitative and qualitative
approaches allows for an investigation both of
overall effects and of the mechanisms that are
producing the poor health outcomes identified
in the countries studied.
Economic Development and Civil War
Helge Holtermann
Dissertation Advisers: Håvard Hegre
(University of Oslo/CSCW) & Halvard Buhaug
(PRIO/NTNU)
Urbanization, Political Order
and Social Violence
Kristian Hoelscher Dissertation
Advisers: Henrik Urdal (PRIO) & Anne Julie Semb
(University of Oslo)
The vast majority of civil wars occur in economically less developed countries. Several different
explanations for this have been suggested, but
little has yet been done to assess them empirically. This project uses various empirical
approaches to identify important causal mechanisms and their links to development-related
conditions: a fieldwork-based case study of insurgent mobilization in Nepal, a mixed-methods
study of the spread of insurgency in Nepal, and
two global large-N studies looking at the determinants of civil war onset.
This political science project explores how interpersonal or social violence is affected by political
and institutional conditions. The project examines how democratization and urbanization
are bringing about changes in the types and
locations of emerging violence in the global
South suggests that democratizing countries
have higher rates of interpersonal violence; and
focuses on understanding how political order
and the legitimacy of institutions can shape
conditions where violence may or may not
emerge. The project employs a mixed-methods
design, utilizing both cross-national quantitative
analyses and disaggregated and in-depth case
studies in Brazil. The findings of the project will
build knowledge on how local political arrangements and the functioning of institutions can
affect urban security, and how the nature of
violence may evolve as populations continue to
shift to urban areas.
Repression and Co-optation Under Authoritarian Rule
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Dissertation Advisers: Håvard Hegre (University of
Oslo/CSCW), Bjørn Høyland (University of Oslo/
CSCW), & Håvard Strand (PRIO)
When the leaderships of Iran and Egypt were
challenged in the summer of 2009 and spring
of 2011, respectively, both responded forcefully
with riot police or militia forces. In Mexico, on
the other hand, the Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI) responded to almost every challenger by incorporating the challenger group
within the ruling coalition. Similarly, Yasser
Arafat co-opted every Palestinian group into
the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), up
until Hamas – which he tried unsuccessfully to
repress. Why do non-democratic leaders repress
some groups and co-opt others? What are the
strategic calculations that go into decisions on
this issue, and what are the relevant determinants? This study focuses on four particular
areas of inquiry: the effects of repression, the
strategy of repression, and the respective institutions of repression and co-optation
Maternal and Reproductive Health
and Armed Conflicts in Sub-Sharan
Africa: A Disaggregated Study Approach Primus Che Chi
Dissertation Advisers: Henrik Urdal
(PRIO) & Johanne Sundby (University of Oslo)
This study seeks to assess the impact of armed
conflict on maternal and reproductive health in
sub-Saharan Africa. This will involve gathering
and comparing disaggregated regional-level
quantitative data on maternal and reproductive
health indicators in conflict and post-conflict
settings in that region, using primarily the Demographic Health Surveys and Armed Conflict
Location and Events Dataset datasets. Qualitative data will also be collected during fieldwork
through the use of semi-structured interviews
and focus-group discussions. Systematic reviews
will also be undertaken in an effort to answer the
following questions: What is the effect of armed
conflict on fertility and family planning? What
non-facility-based interventions can be used to
improve maternal and reproductive health in
conflict/post-conflict settings?
This project will explore drivers, strategies and
mechanisms related to the mobilization and
participation of youth in organized violence in
South Sudan. Its focus will be on Sudan’s second
civil war (1983–2005) and the postwar period
until South Sudan’s independence in 2011. The
project will employ a historical and empirically
based approach, but will be informed by conceptual tools developed within the social sciences.
Within this analytical framework, the project will
investigate the dynamic interaction between individual and group motives, collective identities
and structural features in the fluid political and
economic environment of South Sudan.
Desisting from Violence: The Selection
of Nonviolent vs. Violent Strategies
Marianne Dahl Dissertation Advisers: Scott Gates (PRIO & NTNU) & Kristian
Skrede Gleditsch (University of Essex & PRIO)
In stark contrast to what is often assumed, recent
research has showed that nonviolent campaigns
are more likely to succeed than their violent counterparts. This leaves us with a puzzle: If nonviolent campaigns are not only less costly but also
more likely to succeed, why would anyone choose
a violent strategy? This project looks at whether
the dynamics of within-group and between-group
competition can explain the choice of strategy.
When more than one group is fighting for the
same cause, violence can be used to make sure
that one’s group remains or becomes relevant.
Being relevant is assumed to be decisive for
whether one is invited to the negotiation table
as well as, ultimately, whether one gets a share
in the private goods that are not distributed to
everyone.
Disaggregating the Conflict Trap:
A Spatial Analytical Approach
Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Dissertation Advisers: Kristian Stokke (University
of Oslo) & Håvard Strand (PRIO)
Violence begets violence: thus, civil war-affected
countries are more likely to experience future
conflict. While the idea of a conflict trap is central
for understanding the inertia of political violence,
it has only been conceptualized and explored
at the country level. This project aims to disaggregate the concept of the conflict trap into its
local components and mechanisms. Combining
new innovations in GIS applications for conflict
research with new geo-referenced data sources
and insights from political geography, this project
seeks to develop new theory and new evidence on
the local dynamics behind the conflict trap.
Mass Mobilization in Autocracies
Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Dissertation Advisers: Nils Weidmann (University
of Konstanz) & Håvard Hegre (PRIO)
The collapse of the Soviet Union ushered in an
era of ‘competitive authoritarianism’, in which
the political mobilization and participation
of the masses has been a defining trait. Since
2000, popular uprisings have forced autocrats
to step down in Georgia, Côte d’Ivoire, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and Serbia, and the ‘Arab Spring’
brought changes to the rooted political system in
the Middle East. Although these developments
may be viewed as encouraging, anti-government
sentiments are not the only facet of mass politics
under authoritarianism. Leaders of autocracies
also mobilize support rallies to counter powerful
opposition movements. This project seeks to
develop and test theoretical accounts of mass
mobilization under authoritarianism. Specifically, what makes citizens rally in opposition to,
or in favour of, autocratic governments? Furthermore, what explains the escalation of massmobilization incidents in repressive settings?
Civil Conflict and Institutional Design: Investigating a Two-Way Relationship
Tore Wig Dissertation Advisers: Håvard Hegre (PRIO) & Carl Henrik Knutsen (University of Oslo)
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Youth, Identities and State–Society Relations in the Dynamics of Violence
in South Sudan
Ingrid Marie Breidlid Dissertation
Advisers: Hilde Henriksen Waage (University of Oslo/
PRIO) and Øystein H. Rolandsen (PRIO)
To identify the causal effects of various institutions on conflict risk, one needs to account
for the possibility that institutions are created
and sustained as a response to the risk of civil
conflict. This has not been accounted for in the
current literature. This project investigates the
effects of credibility-enhancing institutions – XI
such as democratic elections, power-sharing and
well-functioning judicial institutions – on the
risk of civil conflict, with a focus on the endogeneity of political institutions to conflict risk.
The project draws on advances in statistical
modelling and new data sources on institutions
and conflict – including both cross-national and
subnational data, as well as historical data.
CSCW Selected
Publications in 2012
For a complete list of 2012 publications,
see http://www.prio.no/CSCW/Research-and-Publications/Publications/
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Monographs
Roy, Kaushik.
Hinduism and the Ethics
of Warfare in South Asia:
From Antiquity to the
Present. Cambridge:
Cambridge University
Press.
XII Stephan, Maria &
Erica Chenoweth.
Why Civil Resistance
Works: The Strategic
Logic of Nonviolent
Conflict. Columbia
Studies in Terrorism
and Irregular Warfare.
New York: Columbia
University Press.
Peer-Reviewed
Journal Articles
Bakke, Kristin;
Kathleen Gallagher
Cunningham &
Seymour Lee.
‘A Plague of Initials:
Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting
in Civil Wars’, Perspectives on Politics 10(2):
265–283.
Barth, Erling & Karl
Moene. ‘Employment
as a Price or a Prize of
Equality: A Descriptive
Analysis’, Nordic Journal
of Working Life Studies
2(2): 5–22.
Benjaminsen, Tor
Arve; Koffi Alinon,
Halvard Buhaug & Jill
Tove Buseth. ‘Does
Climate Change Drive
Land-Use Conflicts in
the Sahel?’, Journal of
Peace Research 49(1):
97–111.
Bergholt, Drago &
Päivi Lujala. ‘ClimateRelated Natural
Disasters, Economic
Growth, and Armed
Civil Conflict’, Journal
of Peace Research 49(1):
147–162.
Bernauer, Thomas &
Nils Petter Gleditsch.
‘New Event Data in
Conflict Research’, International Interactions
38(4): 375–381.
Bernauer, Thomas;
Tobias Böhmelt,
Halvard Buhaug, Nils
Petter Gleditsch,
Theresa Tribaldos,
Eivind Berg Weibust
& Gerdis Wischnath.
‘Water-Related Intrastate
Conflict and Cooperation (WARICC): A New
Event Dataset’, International Interactions 38(4):
529–545.
Binningsbø, Helga
Malmin & Siri Aas
Rustad. ‘Sharing the
Wealth: A Pathway
to Peace or a Trail to
Nowhere?’, Conflict
Management and Peace
Science 29(5): 547–566.
Binningsbø, Helga
Malmin; Cyanne
Loyle, Scott Gates
& Jon Elster. ‘Armed
Conflict and Post-Conflict
Justice, 1946–2006: A
Dataset’, Journal of Peace
Research 49(5): 731–740.
Butler, Christopher K.
& Scott Gates. ‘African
Range Wars: Climate,
Conflict, and Property
Rights’, Journal of Peace
Research 49(1): 23–34.
Chenoweth, Erica &
Laura Dugan. ‘Moving
Beyond Deterrence: The
Effectiveness of Raising
the Expected Utility
of Abstaining from
Terrorism in Israel’,
American Sociological
Review 77(4): 597–624.
Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher. ‘Shirts
Today, Skins Tomorrow:
Dual Contests and the
Effects of Fragmentation in Self-Determination Disputes’, Journal of
Conflict Resolution 56(1):
67–93.
Dahl, Marianne &
Bjørn Høyland. ‘Peace
on Quicksand? Challenging the Conventional Wisdom About
Economic Growth and
Post-Conflict Risks’,
Journal of Peace Research
49(3): 423–429.
Deiwiks, Christa;
Lars-Erik Cederman
& Kristian Skrede
Gleditsch. ‘Inequality
and Conflict in Federations’, Journal of Peace
Research 49(2): 289–304.
Dyrstad, Karin. ‘After
Ethnic Civil War:
Ethno-Nationalism in
the Western Balkans’,
Journal of Peace Research
49(6): 817–831.
Dyrstad, Karin.
‘Does Civil War Breed
Authoritarian Values?
An Empirical Study of
Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Kosovo and Croatia’,
Democratization: online.
Gates, Scott; Håvard
Hegre, Håvard
Mokleiv Nygård &
Håvard Strand. ‘Development Consequences
of Armed Conflict’,
World Development
40(9): 1713–1722.
Gleditsch, Kristian
Skrede & Nils Weidmann. ‘Richardson in
the Information Age:
Geographic Information
Systems and Spatial
Data in International
Studies’, Annual Review
of Political Science 15(1):
461–481.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter.
‘Whither the Weather?
Climate Change and
Conflict’, Journal of
Peace Research 49(1):
3–9.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter.
‘En fredsgevinst for
Norge – eller fortsatt
opprustning?’ [A Peace
Dividend for Norway –
Or Continued Rearmament?], Samfunnsøkonomen 26(6): 26–31.
Hallberg, Johan
Dittrich. ‘PRIO Conflict
Site 1989–2008: A
Geo-Referenced Dataset
on Armed Conflict’,
Conflict Management
and Peace Science 29(2):
219–232.
Hendrix, Cullen
& Kristian Skrede
Gleditsch. ‘Civil War:
Is It All About Disease
and Xenophobia? A
Comment on Letendre,
Fincher & Thornhill’,
Biological Reviews 87(1):
163–167.
Holtermann, Helge.
‘Explaining the Development–Civil War
Relationship’, Conflict
Management and Peace
Science 29(1): 56–78.
Høyland, Bjørn; Karl
Ove Moene & Fredrik
Willumsen. ‘The
Tyranny of International Index Rankings’,
Journal of Development
Economics 97(1): 1–31.
Pearlman, Wendy
& Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham.
‘Nonstate Actors, Fragmentation, and Conflict
Processes’, Journal of
Conflict Resolution 56(1):
3–15.
Ramet, Sabrina P.
& Roman Kuhar.
‘Ownership and Political
Influence in the PostSocialist Mediascape:
The Case of Slovenia’,
Südosteuropa 60(1): 2–30.
Rolandsen, Øystein
H. & Ingrid Marie
Breidlid. ‘A Critical
Analysis of Cultural
Explanations for the
Violence in Jonglei State,
South Sudan’, Conflict
Trends (1): 49–56.
Roy, Kaushik. ‘Afghanistan and the Future of
War’, International Area
Studies Review 15(3):
301–320.
Roy, Kaushik. ‘Horses,
Guns and Governments:
A Comparative Study of
the Military Transition
in the Manchu, Mughal,
Ottoman and Safavid
Empires, Circa 1400 to
Circa 1750’, International
Area Studies Review
15(2): 99–121.
Rustad, Siri Aas
& Helga Malmin
Binningsbø. ‘A Price
Worth Fighting For?
Natural Resources and
Conflict Recurrence’,
Journal of Peace Research
49(4): 531–546.
Skjelsbæk, Inger.
‘Responsibility to
Protect or Prevent?
Victims and Perpetrators of Sexual Violence
Crimes in Armed
Conflicts’, Global
Responsibility to Protect
4(2): 154–171.
Slettebak, Rune.
‘Don’t Blame the
Weather! ClimateRelated Natural Disasters and Civil Conflict’,
Journal of Peace Research
49(1): 163–176.
Theisen, Ole Magnus.
‘Climate Clashes?
Weather Variability,
Land Pressure, and
Organized Violence in
Kenya, 1989–2004’,
Journal of Peace Research
49(1): 79–106.
Theisen, Ole Magnus;
Helge Holtermann
& Halvard Buhaug.
‘Climate Wars?
Assessing the Claim
That Drought Breeds
Conflict’, International
Security 36(3): 79–106.
Tollefsen, Andreas
Forø; Håvard Strand
& Halvard Buhaug.
‘PRIO-GRID: A Unified
Spatial Data Structure’,
Journal of Peace Research
49(2): 363–374.
De Soysa, Indra. ‘The
Capitalist Civil Peace:
Some Theory and
Empirical Evidence’, in
Päivi Lujala & Siri Aas
Rustad, eds, High-Value
Natural Resources and
Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. New York:
Earthscan (437–459).
Wucherpfenning,
Julian; Nils Metternich, Kristian Skrede
Gleditsch & Lars-Erik
Cederman. ‘Ethnicity,
the State, and the Duration of Civil Wars’, World
Politics 64(1): 79–115.
Lujala, Päivi &
Siri Aas Rustad.
‘High-Value Natural
Resources: A Blessing
or a Curse for Peace?’,
in Päivi Lujala & Siri
Aas Rustad, eds, HighValue Natural Resources
and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. New York:
Earthscan (3–18).
Book Chapters
Breidlid, Ingrid Marie
& Jon Harald Sande
Lie. ‘A Cacophony of
Ideas and Practices:
UNMIS and the Protection of Civilians in
Jonglei State, South
Sudan’, in Benjamin de
Carvalho & Ole Jacob
Sending, eds, The Protection of Civilians in UN
Peacekeeping: Concept,
Implementation and
Practice. Baden-Baden:
Nomos (143–162).
Buhaug, Halvard &
Ole Magnus Theisen.
‘On Environmental
Change and Armed
Conflict’, in J. Scheffran, M. Brozka, H. G.
Brauch, P. M Link & J.
Schilling, eds, Climate
Change, Human Security
and Violent Conflict:
Challenges For Societal
Stability. New York:
Springer (43–56).
Mehlum, Halvor
& Karl Moene.
‘Aggressive Elites and
Vulnerable Entrepreneurs: Trust and
Cooperation in the
Shadow of Conflict’,
in Stergios Skaperdas,
ed., Oxford Handbook of
the Economics of Peace
and Conflict. Oxford:
Oxford University Press
(706–729).
Nordås, Ragnhild.
‘The Devil in the
Demography? Religion,
Identity, and War in
Cote d’Ivoire’, in Jack
A. Goldstone, Eric P.
Kaufmann & Monica
Duffy Toft, eds, Political
Demography: How
Population Changes Are
Reshaping International
Security and National
Politics. Oxford: Oxford
University Press (252–
267).
Ramet, Sabrina P.
‘Solving the Mystery
of Ethnic History: An
Introduction’, in Kristen
Ringdal & Albert
Simkus, eds, The Aftermath of War: Experiences
and Social Attitudes in
the Western Balkans.
Farnham: Ashgate
(13–26).
Ringdal, Kristen;
Albert Simkus & Ola
Listhaug. ‘Disaggregating Public Opinion
on the Ethnic Conflict in
Macedonia’, in Kristen
Ringdal & Albert
Simkus, eds, The Aftermath of War: Experiences
and Social Attitudes in
the Western Balkans.
Farnham: Ashgate
(171–192).
Rolandsen, Øystein
H. ‘From Colonial Backwater to an Independent
State: Reflections on the
History of South Sudan’,
in John Ashworth, ed.,
One Church from Every
Tribe, Tongue and People.
Nairobi: Paulines Publications Africa (16–27).
Ross, Michael W.;
Päivi Lujala & Siri Aas
Rustad. ‘Horizontal
Inequality, Decentralizing the Distribution
of Natural Resources
Revenues, and Peace’,
in Päivi Lujala & Siri
Aas Rustad, eds, HighValue Natural Resources
and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. New York:
Earthscan (251–259).
Roy, Kaushik. ‘India’,
in Ian F. W. Beckett, ed.,
Citizen Soldiers and the
British Empire, 1837–
1902. London: Pickering
& Chatto (101–120).
Roy, Kaushik. ‘Insurgencies, CounterInsurgencies and State
Building in Asia: A
Comparative Analysis’,
in Swarupa Gupta, ed.,
Nationhood and Identity
Movements In Asia: Colonial and Post-Colonial
Times. New Delhi:
Manohar Publishers &
Distributors (99–117).
Roy, Kaushik. ‘Introduction’, in Kaushik
Roy, ed., Handbooks For
the Indian Army: Rajputana Classes, Jats, Gujars
and Ahirs. Cuba, MO:
Three Rivers Publishers
(vii–xv).
Roy, Kaushik. ‘Introduction’, in Kaushik
Roy, ed., Partition
of India: Why 1947?
Oxford: Oxford University Press (xv–xliii).
Roy, Kaushik. ‘Science
and Secularization
of War: Transition
in Siege Warfare
in South Asia from
Medieval to Modern
Times’, in Raziuddin
Aquil & Kaushik Roy,
eds, Warfare, Religion
and Society In Indian
History. New Delhi:
Manohar Publishers &
Distributors (249–290).
Roy, Kaushik &
Raziuddin Aquil.
‘Introduction’, in
Raziuddin Aquil &
Kaushik Roy, eds,
Warfare, Religion
and Society In Indian
History. New Delhi:
Manohar Publishers &
Distributors (11–41).
Rustad, Siri Aas; Päivi
Lujala & Philippe Le
Billon. ‘Building or
Spoiling Peace? Lessons
from the Management of High-Value
Natural Resources?’, in
Päivi Lujala & Siri Aas
Rustad, eds, High-Value
Natural Resources and
Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. New York:
Earthscan (571–621).
Sandovici, Maria
Elena & Ola Listhaug.
‘Expectations About the
Present and Future of
Bosnia-Herzegovina:
Optimism or Pessimism?’, in Kristen
Ringdal & Albert
Simkus, eds, The Aftermath of War: Experiences
and Social Attitudes in
the Western Balkans.
Farnham: Ashgate
(257–268).
Simkus, Albert.
‘Cultural Diversity in
South East Europe’,
in Dietmar Sternad
& Thomas F. Döring,
eds, Handbook of Doing
Business In South East
Europe. Basingstoke:
Palgrave Macmillan
(395–427).
Skjelsbæk, Inger.
‘Conceptualizing
Sexual Violence
Perpetrators in War’,
in Morten Bergsmo,
Alf Butenschon Skre
& Elisabeth J. Wood,
eds, Understanding and
Proving International
Sex Crimes. Oslo: Torkel
Opsahl Academic EPublisher (495–509).
Theisen, Ole Magnus;
Kristian Skrede
Gleditsch & Halvard
Buhaug. ‘Climate
Change and Armed
Conflict’, in Graham K.
Brown & Arnim Langer,
eds, Elgar Handbook of
Civil War and Fragile
States. Cheltenham:
Edward Elgar (125–138).
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
Urdal, Henrik &
Kristian Hoelscher.
‘Explaining Urban
Social Disorder and
Violence: An Empirical
Study of Event Data
from Asian and SubSaharan African Cities’,
International Interactions
38(4): 512–528.
XIII
Edited Volumes
Aquil, Raziuddin &
Kaushik Roy, eds.
Warfare, Religion and
Society in Indian History.
New Delhi: Manohar
Publishers & Distributors.
Lujala, Päivi & Siri
Aas Rustad, eds. HighValue Natural Resources
and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. New York:
Earthscan.
Roy, Kaushik, ed.
Handbooks for the Indian
Army: Rajputana Classes,
Jats, Gujars and Ahirs.
Cuba, MO: Three Rivers
Publishers.
Roy, Kaushik, ed.
Partition of India: Why
1947? Oxford: Oxford
University Press.
CSCW Projects
in 2012
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
XIV
Social Dynamics of Civil War 1
Conceptualization and Measurement
Resources and Peace: Power-Sharing and
2
Microfoundations of Civil Wa
1
Wealth-Sharing in Post-Conflict Situations
3
of Democracy Environmental Factors in Civil War
1
Security Implications of Climate Change
2
Gender-Based Violence in Armed Conflict 10
Political Demography (Urdal postdoc) 1, 2, 11
Human Rights, Governance and Conflict
1
Conflict and Economic Performance 1
Values and Violence Civil Peace CSCW Centre Office Cross-Cutting Activities Military History Disaggregating the Study of Civil Wars 1, 4
1
1, 11
1, 5
1
1, 2
Violence (ECCO) Non-Violent Interactions
1
Advanced Conflict Data Catalogue (ACDC)
2
Youth and Violence in Rural South Sudan 4
Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict:
Inside Insurgencies: Organization,
Motives and Prospects for Peace 2
1,2,5
Challenges on the Indian Subcontinent Insurgencies, Counterinsurgencies and
State-Building in Afghanistan 3 Research Council of Norway
– PRIO Core Grant
4 Ministry of Foreign Affairs
5 European Union funding schemes
6 Trinity College Dublin
Analysing Data 4
From Political Conflict to Civil War 3
Strategic Justice During Civil War 10
Qualitative Data Collection in Chad,
Climate Change and Water-Security
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data
1Research Council of Norway –
CSCW Centre of Excellence Grant
2 Research Council of Norway
An Actor-Based Approach to Violent and
2
A New Agenda for European Security
Project Funders:
2
Conflict, Strategies and Violence:
Civil Conflict for the Economic Analyses of Conflict 6
1, 2, 5
Power-Sharing, Democracy and
Dynamics of Institutional Change
(ACLED)
1,2
and Political Outcomes Dynamics of State Failure Ethnic/Cultural Conflicts and Patterns of
Training and Mobility Network
1
1, 5
Human Security (CLICO) Data Projects Management 1
and Conflict Effective Nonviolence? Resistance Strategies
Climate Change, Hydro-Conflicts and
2
CAR and the DRC 8
Reassessing the Role of Democracy: Political
1,9
Institutions and Armed Conflict (PIAC) 1, 2, 3
7 NOREF
8 International Law and Policy Institute
9 Ministry of Defence
10 National Science Foundation
11 Other smaller sources
Research Council of Norway
Other sources
National Science Foundation
EU
PRIO
Norwgian MFA
CSCW
Total project income in 2012 was NOK 18,062,280.
A total number of 47 people were employed or visiting researchers at the Centre, which resulted
in 20,7 person-years (one person-year is the equivalent of one full-time position for a year).
CSCW Director: Scott Gates
PRIO Director: Kristian Berg Harpviken
Chair of PRIO Board: Bernt Aardal
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
XV
An election official observes polling in South Sudan’s referendum on independence in January 2011.
Photo: Mark Naftalin, PRIO
PRIO
Centre of Exellence
PRIO was founded in 1959. It was one of the first
centres of peace research in the world, and it is
Norway’s only peace research institute. PRIO
is an autonomous, non-profit foundation that
is independent and international in staff and
perspective. Research at PRIO concentrates on
the driving forces behind violent conflict and on
ways in which peace can be built, maintained
and spread. In addition to theoretical and empirical research, PRIO also conducts policy-oriented
activities and engages in the search for solutions
in cases of actual or potential violent conflict.
Centre of Excellence (CoE) is a distinction
accorded to CSCW by the Research Council of
Norway. The CoE scheme was introduced in
Norway with the intention of bringing more
researchers and research groups up to a high
international standard. In 2002, after an extensive and competitive selection process led by
international experts, the council awarded CoE
status to 13 of 129 applicants. PRIO’s proposal
was judged to be of ‘exceptionally high scientific quality’. The total number of Centres rose
to 21 in 2006 when a new round of applications
was held in addition to a midway evaluation of
all existing CoEs. CSCW secured a second fiveyear period of funding after the evaluation, again
receiving top scores from the referees.
,
CSCW ANNUAL Report 2012
The Centre has become the
leading international research
environment in research
on civil war... [the] level of
quality of the research is,
exceptionally good
Anonymous expert’s
appraisal for the midway
evaluation of CSCW as a CoE.
www.prio.org/cscw