PDF

March 2012
1
Note Regarding Forward-Looking
Statements

This presentation contains „„forward-looking statements,‟‟ as defined by
federal securities laws, with respect to our financial condition, results of
operations and business, and our expectations or beliefs concerning future
events. These statements include words such as, but not limited to,
„„expect,‟‟ „„anticipate,‟‟ „„believe,‟‟ „„intend,‟‟ „„plan,‟‟ „„seek,‟‟ „„forecast,‟‟
„„estimate,‟‟ „„continue,‟‟ „„may,‟‟ „„will,‟‟ „„would,‟‟ „„could,‟‟ „„likely,‟‟ and similar
expressions. These forward-looking statements reflect management‟s
current expectations and assumptions regarding future events and
operating and financial performance and are based on currently available
information. However, actual results are subject to risks and uncertainties,
which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated
by our forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include
some that are inherent in the Mexican transportation industry, as well as
others that are more specific to our operations.

The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only
as of the date of this presentation. The Company undertakes no obligation
(nor does it intend) to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise, except to the extent required under applicable law.
2
Agenda
• Company Overview
• Industry Highlights
• Financial Overview
• Our Strategy
3
Company Overview
4
Senda Today: Leading Player in the
Mexican Bus Industry
• Only Mexican company authorized to
provide inter-city services in the U.S. and
Mexico
• 250 main routes
• 1,000 destinations
• 135 sales offices
• Passengers Transported: 54 mm per year
• Fleet: +2,500 buses
• Average Fleet Life: 7.5 years
• More than 7,000 employees
•
Leader in Northeast and Central Mexico
•
Efficient business model (not co-owned)
•
Two business segments:
─ Passenger
─ Personnel
5
Our Business Segments
Passenger
Personnel
• Domestic Services:
• Servicio Industrial Regiomontano:
− Transportes Tamaulipas:
− Monterrey & metropolitan area
• Northeast Mexico
− Torreon
− Transportes del Norte:
− Saltillo
− Reynosa
• Central & Northeast Mexico
− Autobuses Coahuilenses:
− San Luis Potosi
• Coahuila state
• School Bus Systems:
− Monterrey Tec (ITESM)
• International Services:
− Turimex International:
− UDEM
− Private Schools
•Between Mexico & U.S.
6
1930
1960
Company
foundation
Acquisition of
several
companies to
extend our
territory
The Company
changes its
name to
Transportes
Tamaulipas
Acquisition of
the first diesel
buses.
1985
1993
Personnel
transportation
segment
Packaging
segment
“Senda Express”
“SIR”
Acquisition of
Transportes
Altiplano and
Transportes
Potosinos del
Centro
Acquisition of
Transportes
Martinez,
Zuazua,
Escobedo and
Ciénega de
Flores
7
We acquired
30% of
Autobuses del
Noreste
1995
Tourism segment
“Turimex”
offering special
tours
Transportes
Coahuilenses
start its operation
Our Recent History
2000
2002
2003 - 2004
JV
Initiates
international
service with
“Turimex
Internacional”.
Acquisition of personnel
transportation
businesses in Saltillo,
Torreón, Reynosa and
Monterrey. Incrementing
segment’s fleet by 40%.
Autobuses
Coahuilenses
51% Senda
49% SEB
20% Increase in
revenues
Today this
represents 12%
of the group's
revenue.
Today this represents
21% of the group’s
revenue.
8
2004
2005 - 2007
2009
Acquisition
of
Operational
efficiencies,
market share
increments in
TDN’s region.
Acquires the
remaining 49%
of
“Transportes
del Norte
(TDN)”
Revenues
increase
46%
Bond issuance in
int’l capital
markets.
Autobuses
Coahuilenses
Sells minority
interest in
Autobuses del
Noreste
Revenue and EBITDA Breakdown
(Ps. millions)
(Ps. millions)
2010 Revenue (Ps millions)
2010 EBITDA (Ps millions)
Personnel
$681
19%
Personnel
$157
21%
Passenger
$2,828
81%
Passenger
$608
79%
Total: $3,509
(Ps. millions)
(Ps. millions)
Total: $765
2011 Revenue (Ps millions)
2011 EBITDA (Ps millions)
Personnel
$781
21%
Personnel
$193
24%
Passenger
$620
76%
Passenger
$2,884
79%
Total: $3,665
Total: $813
9
Our Passenger Division
Northeast Market Share
(December2011)
• Represents 79% of sales:
Others
15%
− 76% domestic, 16% international
and 8% packaging
• Key Figures:
− Passengers: 20 million annually
− Fleet: 1,200 buses
− Routes: +250 in Mexico & U.S.
Senda
85%
TDN Region Market Share
DIC 2011
DEC 2004
Grupo
Senda
20%
Others
80%
• Extra trunk space for packaging
services
Others
45%
Senda
55%
• Buses down time for charter
services & tourism
10
Passenger Division - International
TURIMEX PASSENGERS
64,685
• Transportation services to 25
destinations in the U.S.
58,311
50,161
• Full compliance with U.S. and
Mexican laws
48,245
40,693
• Passenger flow drivers:
33,175
− U.S. economy
YEARLY MIGRATION
− Level of money sent by
immigrants to Mexico
• Approx. 26 mm MexicanAmericans in the U.S.; ~8% of
U.S. population
346
Source: Consejo Nacional de Población (Conapo)
www.conapo.gob.mx .
352
358
364
369
374
379
382
386
389
392
395
398
401
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
11
403
406
409
412
415
419
422
425
sep-11
may-09
ene-09
sep-08
may-08
Jan-08
sep-07
May-07
Nov-06
Jul-06
Mar-06
Nov-05
Jul-05
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
− Migration (w/permits)
May-03
Jan-03
1,019
Mar-05
14,393
432
427 430
10 '11E '12E '13E '14E '15E '16E '17E '18E '19E '20E
Passenger division - Packaging
COVERAGE
REVENUES (MM)
248
Commercial agreements with
regional players:
224
196
174
153
132
• Increase coverage area (nationwide)
114
• Maintain sales at 2 digit growth rates
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Al Servicio de:
VOLUME OF PACKAGES
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2005
12
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Company Overview – Personnel
Division COVERAGE AREA
• Intra-city services (21% of sales):
− Industry personnel
− Students
• Annual passengers: 34 million
• Total Fleet: 1,522 buses
• Coverage: Monterrey, Saltillo,
Reynosa, Torreon & San Luis Potosi
− Approx. 52% of market share in
Monterrey area
− 10 year relationship with our top 20
customers
CUSTOMER COMPOSITION
− No single contract represents more
than 6% of revenues
Charter
services
9%
Educational
institutions
8%
• In August 2010 was launched the
Expreso Escolar, our door-to-door
service. Currently with a 150 units
fleet.
Corporate
clients
83%
Source: Company’s estimation.
13
Industry Highlights
14
Favorable Market Demographics
MEXICAN POPULATION INCOME PYRAMID
2.1%
( > US$1,500 mo.)
5.3%
( US$1,500 - 700 mo.)
9.6%
( US$700 - 400 mo.)
83.0%
PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN MEXICO
Other
Air
Transportation 2%
1%
(< US$400 mo.)
3.2 billion
passengers
Bus
Transportation
97%
Total Mexican Population:
~103 MM
Source: INEGI.
Source: SCT 2011 Handbook Statistics
•
•
High dependency on buses in
Mexico
Low cost carriers not direct competitors
–
Average bus ticket price: US$7.8, 185 kms.
distance per passenger
–
98% of the Mexican population is in the
medium/low income level
–
–
Well connected and high quality national
highway system
Over 80% of customers travel between
secondary cities
–
Average airline ticket is approx. US$200
–
No Passenger rail system
As opposed to the U.S. and Europe, the bus industry
is the low-cost transportation alternative in Mexico
15
Migration
• Mexicans are the most numerous
minority in U.S. east cost (1)
• Most recent migration states:
Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, North
and South Carolina, among others
(2)
• Diversification opportunities into
new markets
MIGRATION BY REGION
Low
Middle
High
Source: According to the “Migration intensity index”. Conapo
(www.conapo.gob.mx).
(1) Miguel Pickard “Americas Program”
(2) Jeanne Batalova PhD Migration Policy Institute
16
Favorable Industry Dynamics
• Bus industry protected from macroeconomic shocks
– Increases at population growth rate
– Basic need – The Mexican means of transportation
• Industry moving fast towards consolidation
– Major competitors operate under the owner-operator model (co-op)
– Stricter enforcement of safety regulations
– Fleet life of approximately 9.5 years* vs. 7.5 years at Senda
*Source: SCT
17
Financial Overview
18
Strong Financial Performance
Revenues
EBITDA & EBITDA Margins
35%
(Ps. MM)
(Ps. MM)
30%
29%
900
30%
800
28%
26%
3.5
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.7
3.1
700
23%
25%
20%
20%
20%
15%
1.6
765 813
763
1.8
10%
500
17%
2.6
1.6
22% 22% 600
611
597 591
449 470 492
300
528
200
5%
100
0%
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
02
19
400
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
US$0
62
Quarterly Financial Information
Revenue (Ps millions)
Quarterly EBITDA
300
(Ps. MM)
25%
250
22%
20%
21%
24%
21%
25%
25%
21%
200
20%
17%
150
963
958
4Q10
4Q11
15%
237
100
D: -0.6%
30%
187
157
180
233
191
243
191
10%
145
50
5%
0
0%
EBITDA (Ps millions)
D: 2.8%
4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
20
237
243
4Q10
4Q11
4Q11 Results by Segment
Passenger Revenue (Ps millions)
D : -2.5%
776
Personnel Revenue (Ps millions)
D : 7%
757
4Q10
201
187
4Q11
4Q10
Passenger EBITDA (Ps millions)
4Q11
Personnel EBITDA (Ps millions)
D: -3.5%
D: 4%
193
201
44
4Q10
4Q11
4Q10
21
42
4Q11
Ticket Price per Kilometer Index
Grupo Senda
(TPK mix by constant passenger type)
148
115 115 117
111 111 111 114
93
81
81
82
82
80
80
97 100
126
122 122 123 124
137 139 139 139 140
132 131 131 134 133 132 134
104
81
ene- feb- mar- abr- may- jun- jul- ago- sep- oct- nov- dic- ene- feb- mar- abr- may- jun- jul- ago- sep- oct- nov- dic- ene- feb- mar- abr- may- jun- jul- ago- sep- oct- nov- dic09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
100
22
Pbk
Industry Inflation – December 31st
1.00
0.9401
0.95
0.8889
0.90
0.8458
0.7845
0.80
0.8192
0.75
0.7847
0.7122
0.6839
0.70
0.6488
0.65
0.6488
0.6488
0.60
0.8518
0.8340
0.85
0.9346
0.6754
0.6503
0.7281
0.7466
0.7010
0.6652
0.55
0.5548
0.50
2005
2006
Real Factor
2007
2008
2009
Factor w/ Industry Inflation
23
2010
National Inflation
Dic-11
1%
Trend Charts – Federal
2011 vs 2010
Kilometers
Revenue
Hurricane
“Alex”
Hurricane
“Alex”
Freezing
Freezing
Tickets
Price
Hurricane
“Alex”
Hurricane
“Alex”
Freezing
Freezing
* Measured in Equivalent Days
24
Improving Financial Ratios
EBITDA / INTEREST EXPENSE
NET DEBT / EBITDA
5.2x
3.0x
3.4x
3.7x
2.0x
2.1x
2010
2011
*
3.4x 2.5x
2009
2010
2011
1.4x
2012 E
2009
* FX effect: $241.5m
25
2012 E
CAPEX
CAPEX & CAPEX / REVENUES
• 2002 – 2006: extensive
(Ps. MM)
investments
− 2005 & 2006: bus acquisitions
for new routes related to TDN
and personnel expansion
10.1%
9.0%
8.1%
$312
• 2007 & 2008: TDN and Texas
expansion (Turimex Tx)
$236
1.5%
1.8%
$44
$56
9.0%
$346
$350
2011
2012 E
3.0%
$100
• 2010+: CAPEX less than
depreciation
2006
− Route rationalization
26
2007
2008
2009
2010
Debt Maturity Schedule
Debt
2,236
Debt Profile per year
Banks
6%
Leases
27%
2,093
Bond
67%
313
299
14
ST
219
-
118
-
2013
2014
Leases
Banks
143
82
-
2015
2016
Bond @ 13.95
Interest Rates
Bond’s behavior
105
100 100
77
60
83
98
90
94
99
Variable
6%
60
45
Fixed
94%
SEP DEC07 SEP DEC08 SEP DEC09 JAN10 JUN11 SEP11 OCT11 DEC11 FEB12
07
08
09
27
Our Strategy
28
Financial Strategy
•
Investment policy focused on leveraging the existing business platform and
taking advantage of synergies
− EBITDA margins to 28% - 30%
•
Ongoing initiatives to strengthen financial position
− Net Debt / EBITDA: 2.5x
− Interest coverage: >3.0x
29
Business Strategy
• Increase sales and volumes in passenger segment
− Food & Entertainment
− Pricing
• Increase profitability by focusing on operating efficiencies and cost
reductions
− Ongoing route rationalization
− Six Sigma projects
− Synergies
• Expansion in the personnel segment
− New private school transportation “door - to - door” service
− New territories (Chihuahua and Guadalajara among other cities)
• Complementary products for passengers
− Advertising
− Prepaid Mobile Cards, etc.
30
31