Arrietta Chakos Urban Resilience Strategies May 15, 2014 Global

Arrietta Chakos
Urban Resilience Strategies
May 15, 2014
Global Forum on Urban and Regional
Resilience
•  A resilient community can grow, adapt and restore itself in the
aftermath of disruptive change
Mitigation
and
preparedness
Disaster
Long-term
Recovery
Relief and
Response
adapted from ABAG Earthquake & Hazards Program
From FEMA’s National Recovery Framework
•  Vulnerability of urban systems warrants close attention
from the research and policy communities
•  Multi-hazard resilience planning and energy grid
disruption issues are current regional focal points
•  Varied experience and actions on the disaster/disruption
continuum impede development of a “recipe” for
resilience
Devastation in the Midwest
ShakeMap, California Integrated Seismic Network
Napa
Sonoma
Sonoma Napa
Solano
Solano
Marin
Marin
•  500 to 600 fires in the
region are probable
•  About 100 could occur in
San Francisco
Contra
Contra
Costa
Costa
San
San Francisco
Francisco
Alameda
Alameda
San
San Mateo
Mateo
Santa
Santa
Clara
Clara
Predicted Number
of Ignitions
10 or more
8 to 9
6 to 7
4 to 5
2 to 3
Less than 2
TM
*Data Provided by HAZUS , with support from PBS&J
(Jawhar Bouabid) , Charles Kircher & Associates, ABS
Consulting (Hope Seligson), the Cities of San Jose,
Berkeley and San Francisco, and OSHPD. Funding for
this Scenario was provided by an Urban Area Security
Initiative Grant to the City and County of San Francisco
00
10
10
miles
miles
Santa
Santa
Cruz
Cruz
20
20
Monterey
Monterey
San
San
Benito
Benito
Napa
Sonoma
Sonoma Napa
Solano
Solano
Marin
Marin
•  Over $120 Billion of
building losses
Contra
Contra
Costa
Costa
San
San Francisco
Francisco
•  Direct and indirect
losses will exceed
$150 Billion
Alameda
Alameda
San
San Mateo
Mateo
Loss Density
[$M per sq.mi.]
Over 250
50 to 250
10 to 50
5 to 10
1 to 5
0.2 to 1
Less than 0.2
TM
*Data Provided by HAZUS , with support from PBS&J
(Jawhar Bouabid) , Charles Kircher & Associates, ABS
Consulting (Hope Seligson), the Cities of San Jose,
Berkeley and San Francisco, and OSHPD. Funding for
this Scenario was provided by an Urban Area Security
Initiative Grant to the City and County of San Francisco.
00
10
10
miles
miles
Santa
Santa
Clara
Clara
Santa
Santa
Cruz
Cruz
20
20
Monterey
Monterey
San
San
Benito
Benito
America’s Infrastructure Report Card
Regional Infrastructure Investments
Infrastructure
provider
Number
clients
served
15M
throughout
N CA
400,000
daily
ridership
Scope of upgrades
East Bay
Municipal
Utilities
District
1.3M in East
Bay
CalTrans
38.3M statewide
Entire system upgrade: pipelines,
fault crossings, dams, admin building,
pumping and treatment plants
(completed 1999?)
Structurally upgraded and seismically
retrofit over 2000 bridges and
overpasses, new E span Bay Bridge
San
Francisco
Public
Utilities
Commission
2.6 M
Upgrade of 100+ yr old Hetch Hetchy
residential,
water system-pipelines, fault
commercial, crossings treatment facilities, and
and
reservoirs (2016 completion)
industrial
Total Investment
Pacific Gas
and Electric
Bay Area
Rapid Transit
System upgrade of underground gas,
electrical components, substations,
and admin building.
Retrofit core system-aerial structures,
stations, transbay tube (completion
system 2018, tube 2023)
Total cost/
source of
funding
$2.5B
rate payers
$1.3B
bonds &
taxpayers/ $3M
from FEMA
$0.189B
rate payers
$13.08B
CA taxpayers
$4.6B
bond measure
$2.7B
$24.3B
•  ABAG examines how 9 counties, 101 cities with a
population of 7.8 million can apply resilience strategies
in daily community life
•  Joint Policy Committee’s Resilience Initiative examines
climate & sustainability action
•  Rockefeller Foundation’s 100RC Initiative
•  California Energy Commission’s Energy Assurance
Program in 5 Bay Area cities
Resilience Initiative- -Overview Resilience policy development process
Theory
Sets work in body of
background, context, and
theory
Helps guide thinking about
project as a whole
1. Resilience Initiative
Background and Context
2. Executive Summary and
Methodology
Assessment
Policy Issue papers
identifying major issues and
recommended regional
policy solutions
3. Housing
4. Infrastructure
5. Economy and Business
6. Governance and DecisionMaking
Actions
Summarize actions identified
in issue papers
Prioritize actions and
develop a cohesive regional
policy agenda
Discuss implementation and
next steps
7. Regional Resilience Action
Plan
Bay Area Housing & Community Risk
Assessment
•  An assessment of housing and community vulnerability
to earthquake and flood risks
•  Identification of potential consequences of these risks in
areas of future high growth
•  Selection of community profile areas to refine
understanding of vulnerability and support strategy
development
•  Actions that incorporate hazard mitigation, climate
adaptation, and smart growth approaches
Regional Airport & Lifelines’ Study
•  Funded by CalTrans to examine disaster readiness of the
Bay Area airports and utility systems that serve them
•  Using publicly available data, ABAG studied the
vulnerability of regional infrastructure systems
•  An interdependency assessment is in development to
show the connection and choke points in the electric/
natural gas, water, transportation and fuel systems
•  Current findings demonstrate the need for a Phase II
study and formation of a regional Lifelines Council
Resilient Shorelines Program
•  Identify how shoreline hazards (sea level rise, storm
events, major earthquake) will affect Bay Area shoreline
communities, infrastructure, ecosystems and economy
•  Assess regional flood risk management capacity,
limitations and interdependencies
•  Identify areas and regional assets that will be exposed to
shoreline flood risk hazards
•  Develop local and regional approaches to address risk
hazards, reduce and manage impacts, & build resilience.
Regional Assessment Maps
Regional Hazard Mitigation/Resilience
Plan
•  2010 Multi-jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
•  Regional hazards assessed with mitigation strategies for
infrastructure, health, housing, economy, government
services, education, environment, and land use systems
•  Eighty-one jurisdictions and thirty special districts
participated in the process
•  Local governments now eligible for hazard mitigation
assistance programs through FEMA, Community Rating
System points, and a waiver of the 6.25% local match
for FEMA Public Assistance funds
Coordinating regional research &
policy development
•  Joint Policy Committee—four regional agencies
coordinating SLR and climate action planning &
implementation
•  Funding from the Kresge and San Franciscso
Foundations is supporting strategic planning to align
climate and disaster resilience initiatives
•  University of California, Berkeley is launching the Climate
Research Initiative as the academic hub for the region
100 Resilient Cities: A Call to Action
100 Resilient Cities Initiative
•  100 cities will be designated in the coming two years
•  Four cities in the Bay Area were selected in the first
global cohort—San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland and
Alameda—the only regional cluster chosen
•  The Bay Area 100RC communities are just beginning a
three-year program to address common regional
challenges: seismic safety, energy assurance, supporting
community/regional collaboratives
Regional Energy Assurance Planning
•  California Energy Commission pilot program worked with
50 cities to launch energy contingency and security plans
•  Five Bay Area cities joined the effort: San Francisco,
Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Palo Alto
•  CaLEAP provided guidance on CIKR mapping,
assessment of local and regional vulnerability,
•  Strategies to expand local renewables and alternative
energy portfolios
National Resilience Initiatives
•  Presidential Policy Directives 8 & 21: Critical
Infrastructure and Key Resources resilience &
Comprehensive Recovery Planning guidance
•  National Academy of Sciences long-term study on
national resilience capacity and the new Resilience
Roundtable
•  National Association of Counties’ 2014 resilience effort
•  ecoAmerica’s Climate Campaign: MomentUs
National Academy of Sciences’ 2012
Resilience Study
Baseline Resilience Planning
•  Evaluate potential disruptions from natural & human
generated disasters. Having a restoration plan for essential
community systems—power, water systems—is a key
element of physical resilience.
•  Strengthen sectoral partnerships with MOUs
•  Implement resilience action planning through local General,
Hazard Mitigation & Climate Action plans
•  Use the community planning tools at hand to mainstream and
sustain resilience policy
The Resilience Value Proposition:
4:1 Investment Ratio
“The analysis … of FEMA grants awarded during the
(MMC) study period indicates that a dollar spent on
mitigation saves society an average of $4.”
—from the U.S. MultiHazard Mitigation Council