Regional Consolidation Has Mixed Credit Implications for Latin
Transcription
Regional Consolidation Has Mixed Credit Implications for Latin
BANKING FEBRUARY 14, 2014 Regional Consolidation Has Mixed Credit Implications for Latin American Banks SPECIAL COMMENT Mergers and acquisitions generally lead to improved growth prospects for banks, but the credit implications require a case-by-case review. Table of Contents: 1. BANKS CHASE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES BEYOND THEIR BORDERS 2. M&A ACTIVITY LAYS A FOUNDATION FOR STRONGER GROWTH AT LATIN AMERICAN BANKS 3. M&A ACTIVITY INVOLVING LATIN AMERICAN BANKS WILL LIKELY SPREAD BEYOND THE REGION 4. WHILE M&A IS BROADLY POSITIVE, CREDIT AND REGULATORY RISKS MAY INCREASE MOODY’S RELATED RESEARCH APPENDIX 1 2 4 7 7 8 9 Analyst Contacts: MEXICO CITY +52.55.1253.5700 Busy Juarez +52.55.1253.5735 Associate Analyst [email protected] NEW YORK +1.212.553.1653 M. Celina Vansetti+1.212.553.4845 Hutchins Managing Director - Banking [email protected] Cross-border mergers and acquisitions proliferated in Latin America’s banking sector in the period 2011-2013, fueled by regional growth opportunities, divestments by global banks and favorable financing conditions. Colombian and Brazilian banks were among the most active players, targeting banks in Central America, Mexico, and Chile (See Exhibit 1). This consolidation trend has varied credit implications both on the individual banks that have been active buyers and on the region’s banking systems in general. Structural and cyclical factors are behind the regional consolidation among Latin American banks. Long-term growth opportunities in countries with development potential led several banks to consider cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Other factors supporting the increase in acquisition activity over the last four years were the divesting and deleveraging of global banks from the region, abundant liquidity and strong currencies. Growing cross-border trade within Latin America and economic interdependence will likely lead banks to continue to expand their reach across the region, although banks will be more selective, as easy financing fades and acquisition targets become scarce. The recent uptick in M&A lays the foundation for stronger financial performance. Bank consolidation is broadly credit positive because it enhances franchise value and earnings potential. Banks benefit from diversifying their businesses and geographic footprints, and deepening their core funding capacity. Nevertheless, credit and rating implications on buyers may vary depending on the risks associated with each individual deal. New trends in regional consolidation will hinge on banks’ expansion plans in growth markets, as well as cross-border activity between Latin America, Asia and Europe. Banks interested in M&A are focusing on select transactions that fit their long-term regional strategies. Many will pursue takeovers that will give them a platform to build regional operations, or will grow organically in attractive markets to offset constrains in their home market. Chinese banks looking to finance natural resource projects in Latin America are the main driver behind interest from Asian banks. On the other hand, some large Latin American banks, or their shareholding groups, are exploring opportunities to invest in Europe. BANKING While these developments are broadly positive, M&A activity raises credit risks for certain banks, and creates new challenges for regulators. In their effort to gain scale and diversification, banks that make purchases in Latin America may incur large acquisition costs and allow their capitalization to weaken. Moreover, integrating new operations can create problems for asset quality and profitability, especially when entering unfamiliar markets. Based on potential risks related to specific deals, we have taken some negative rating actions following the announcement of mergers and acquisitions. As regional consolidation leads to increased cross-border lending, regulators will have to focus more on regional coordination among national bank supervisors. 1. Banks Chase Growth Opportunities Beyond Their Borders Mergers and Acquisitions Activity Increased Across the Region Throughout the period 2011 to 2013, the financial sector was one of the most active in M&A transactions in Latin America, engaging in more than 45 cross border and domestic deals. Exhibit 1 details recent international deals and conditions. EXHIBIT 1 List Of Cross-Border M&A Deals in Latin America Buyer / Domicile Target / Domicile Completion/ Announcement Termination Transaction Date Date Price Financing Itaú Unibanco / Brazil CorpBanca / Chile Jan-14 USD 1.8 billion Banesco Group / Venezuela NCG Banco / Spain Dec-13 €1 billion Promerica Financial Corp. / Panamá Banco de la Producción Dec-13 / Ecuador China Construction Bank / China Banco Industrial e Comercial / Brazil Oct-13 USD 725 million Banco de Bogotá / Colombia BBVA Panamá / Panamá Jul-13 BAC International Bank / Panama Grupo Financiero Reformador / Guatemala Jun-13 Dec-13 Ownership Stock-for- controlling stock shareholder with transaction 33.58% Business Focus Credit implication Universal Positive 88.33% Universal Negative majority stake Corporate Cash 72% stake SME USD 630 million Cash 98.92% Universal USD 411 million Cash 100% Commercial/ Corporate Positive Mixed Positive Grupo Ribadeneira de Ecuador Banco de Antigua / / Ecuador Guatemala May-13 Banco de Crédito e Inversiones City National Bank of / Chile Florida / USA May-13 Bancolombia / Colombia HSBC Bank / Panamá Feb-13 Bancolombia / Colombia Grupo Financiero Agromercantil de Guatemala / Guatemala Dec-12 Corpbanca / Chile Helm Bank / Colombia Oct-12 Continental / Paraguay NBC Bank - Banco Múltiplo / Brazil Oct-12 Nov-13 BTG Pactual / Brazil Bolsa y Renta / Colombia Jun-12 Dec-12 USD 52 million Cash/Stock 100% Securities Brokerage Services Positive Mizuho Bank Ltd. / Japan Banco WestLB do Brasil Jun-12 S.A. / Brazil Jul-13 USD 380 million Undisclosed 100% Wholesale Positive 2 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 Microfinance USD 883 million Cash 100% Commercial/ Residential Real Estate Negative Oct-13 USD 2.2 billion Cash 100% of ordinary Commercial/ shares Retail Negative Oct-13 USD 217 million Cash 40% of the shares Commercial/ of the controlling Corporate holding Neutral USD 1.3 billion Cash 100% Commercial/ Retail Positive 100% Corporate/ SME SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING EXHIBIT 1 List Of Cross-Border M&A Deals in Latin America Completion/ Announcement Termination Transaction Date Date Price Financing Ownership Business Focus 100% Universal Buyer / Domicile Target / Domicile GNB Sudameris / Colombia HSBC subsidiaries / Colombia, Perú, Uruguay and Paraguay May-12 Banco de Crédito del Perú / Perú Investment Bank IM Trust / Chile Apr-12 Davivienda / Colombia Corpbanca / Chile Banco de Crédito del Perú / Perú Credit implication USD 400 million Cash Jul-12 USD 185 million Undisclosed 60.6% controlling Investment stake Bank Positive HSBC Central America / Jan-12 El Salvador, Costa Rica and Honduras Dec-12 USD 801 million Cash 100% Universal Positive Banco Santander / Colombia Dec-11 Jun-12 USD 1.2 billion Cash 95% Universal Positive Correval / Colombia Dec-11 Apr-12 USD 77 million Cash 51% controlling stake Investment Brokerage Services Positive Bank of Nova Scotia / Canada Banco Colpatria Red Multibanca Colpatria / Colombia Oct-11 Jan-12 USD 1 billion Cash/Stock 51% Retail Neutral Industrial & Commercial Bank Standard Bank of China / China Argentina / Argentina Aug-11 Dec-12 USD 600 million Cash Corporate/Re tail Positive BTG Pactual / Brazil Celfin Capital / Chile Aug-11 Feb-12 USD 600 million Cash/Stock 100% Brokerage Firm Positive Banco do Brasil /Brazil Florida-based Eurobank Apr-11 / USA Jan-12 USD 6 million Cash 100% Retail/SME Positive Bank of Nova Scotia / Canada Nuevo Banco Comercial Dec-10 / Uruguay Jun-11 Cash 100% Retail Neutral Grupo Aval / Colombia BAC Credomatic / Central America Jul-10 Dec-10 USD 1.9 billion 100% Capital injection in the form of equityconvertible debt/Cash Retail Positive Banco do Brasil /Brazil Banco Patagonia / Argentina Apr-10 Apr-11 USD 480 million Cash Retail Positive 80% stake 51% controlling stake Positive Sources: Moody’s Investors Service, Bloomberg, Lain Finance, BNamericas, national and international media, websites and financial statements of the entities mentioned Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Will Continue to Drive Acquisitions 3 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 » For the most part, recent M&A in Latin America benefited from the combination of structural and cyclical factors. In recent years, divestitures from the region by major European banks, such as HSBC, BBVA and Santander, coupled with exceptionally easy financing conditions were the main drivers behind the rise in cross-border mergers in Latin America. Strong currencies made acquisitions advantageous to the buyers, and allowed banks to seek opportunities for business and client expansion in neighboring markets that offered attractive growth prospects and development potential. Banks also followed the growing cross-border activities of corporations in the region, as trade gained importance. » These favorable market conditions will fade in 2014, but growth opportunities will still drive new deals. Divestment opportunities have already diminished because the scaling back of European banks in the region is generally complete. Potential new acquisition targets are more scarce. Also, stable but below-trend economic growth and shifts in liquidity dynamics following a tapering of monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve may disrupt access to financing. Nonetheless, select regional consolidation may still occur. SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING 2. M&A Activity Lays a Foundation for Stronger Growth at Latin American Banks » Credit and rating implications of cross-border acquisitions on buyers are difficult to generalize because of the varying impact on creditworthiness. While some transactions may not have an immediate impact on the credit rating of the banks involved, the benefit for the purchasing bank will be seen in increased revenue and earnings in the coming years. Our assessment balances potential benefits to buyers, including franchise value and earnings accretion and access to funding, against the risks of shifting business strategies and adapting to a new operating environment. We also focus on risks related to the financing terms of the deal, and the effects on the buyers’ credit standing. » Acquisitions allow banks to achieve greater scale and diversification, which enhances franchise value and leads to more stable growth. As banks gain exposure to markets with higher growth potential than domestic markets, there is the possibility for better business mix and access to a broader deposit base that leads to improved core earnings capacity. For example, the acquisition of BAC Credomatic in 2010 by Colombia’s Banco de Bogotá substantially bolstered its net interest margin because of the higher-yielding loans and lower-cost deposits at the new subsidiary, which focuses on retail banking. Following its acquisition of HSBC’s El Salvador, Costa Rica and Honduras’ subsidiaries in January 2012, Colombia-based Banco Davivienda’s net income rose 9.6% in the first nine months of 2013, supported by a greater contribution to earnings from its foreign subsidiaries. EXHIBIT 2 Largest Regional Franchises In Latin America, US$ millions Bank Period Banco do Brasil Dec-13 Itaú Unibanco Holding Dec-13 Total Assets Footprint 552,682 Brasil, Argentina, United States, Asia 468,675 Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, México, Colombia, Perú, Europe, Caribbean, United States, Middle East, Asia Banco BTG Pactual Group Bancolombia Banco de Bogotá Sep-13 82,931 Brasil, Perú, Chile, Colombia, Europe, Caribbean, United States, Asia Dec-13 Sep-13 Credicorp Davivienda Dec-13 Sep-13 67,710 Colombia, Panamá, Guatemala and El Salvador 49,986 Colombia, Panamá, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua 40,982 Perú, Chile, Colombia, Bolivia 28,218 Colombia, Panamá, Costa Rica, Honduras and El Salvador Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics and Issuers’ financial statements 4 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 » Cross border M&A activity generally reduces vulnerability to economic distress in any single country. Brazil’s Itaú Unibanco is building South America’s largest regional franchise. Its latest deal – the agreement in January 2014 with Chile’s CorpGroup to merge CorpBanca and Banco Itaú Chile - further enhances earnings diversification and business potential in the region. The deal will boost Itaú Unibanco’s economies of scale in Chile and will expand its presence in Colombia, as it gains access to Corpbanca’s subsidiaries in that market. Moreover, Itaú’s Andean expansion helps offset a potential slowdown in Brazil’s economy, because both Chile and Colombia have a higher potential for growth in the coming years. » Colombian financial groups Bancolombia and Grupo Aval have employed some of the most aggressive cross-border expansion strategies in the region. Both financial groups pursued acquisitions outside Colombia to improve their growth prospects. As shown in Exhibit 3, acquisitions by Banco de Bogota and Bancolombia in Central America allowed them to expand their balance sheets rapidly, attaining market share that would otherwise require years of organic growth. SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING EXHIBIT 3 Colombian Financial Group´s Regional Franchise is Complemented By Its New Acquisitions Market shares before and after announced acquisitions Total Loans Bogota Total Deposits Bogota Total Loans Bancolombia Central America Central America Guatemala Guatemala Panama Panama - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 - 200 Increase in market shares by basis points 400 600 Total Deposits Bancolombia 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Increase in market shares by basis points Source: Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, Superintendencia General de Entidades Financieras – Costa Rica, Superintendencia de Bancos – Guatemala, Superintendencia del Sistema Financiero – El Salvador, Comisión Nacional de Bancos y Seguros – Honduras and Superintendencia de Bancos y de Otras Instituciones Financieras – Nicaragua » Financing conditions are critical when evaluating the credit implications of a transaction. Uncertainty surrounding financing terms can make it difficult to gauge the impact of a transaction on the bank's capital structure or its ability to replenish capital. If financing is not secured, the acquisition can negatively affect the bank’s capital and balance sheet or expose the acquiring bank to unfavorable debt or capital markets conditions and volatility. For example, Bancolombia’s acquisition of HSBC Panama led to weakened capital ratio and triggered a negative outlook on its ratings. » Price discipline ensures that leverage and goodwill remain manageable. Overpayment for an acquisition, especially in a context of growing competition, can lead to a sizable increase in leverage or in the proportion of goodwill in the acquiring banks’ capital structure. We estimate that goodwill will rise to a peak of 32% of Colombian banks’ Tier 1 capital in 2013-14, from 20% as of year-end 2012, as a result of acquisitions. EXHIBIT 4 Price-to-Book Value of Selected Transactions Across Latin America 4.0 Scotiabank - Colpatria 3.5 CorpBanca - Santander Bancolombia - HSBC Bank Panamá P/BV, times (x) 3.0 BAC - Reformador 2.5 Bancolombia - Agromercantil Banco de Bogoá - BAC 2.0 Grupo Colpatria - Colpatria CorpBanca - Helm Bank 1.5 Itau - CorpBanca Davivienda - HSBC CA 1.0 0.5 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% ROE Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics, Issuers’ financial statements and Credicorp Capital 5 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING » Operating conditions in targeted markets may lead to changes in risk positioning. Colombian banks are expanding in countries that have a high level of dollarization, low economic growth and weak corporate strength, which presents additional challenges. Acquisitions of Central American banks with lower asset quality than the acquiring bank’s domestic market may add risk to the bank’s loan mix and create asset quality pressure. EXHIBIT 5 Sample of Ratings Movements When A Negative Action Was Taken Initially MOODY'S Rating Action Transaction Following Announcement Upon Completion Bancolombia - HSBC Bank Panamá Placed ratings of Bancolombia on review for downgrade Confirmed Bancolombia's ratings; changed outlook to negative Banorte - Afore Bancomer Affirmed Banorte's ratings; changed outlook to negative Affirmed Banorte's ratings, outlook changed to stable CorpBanca Chile - Helm Bank Negative outlook on ratings of CorpBanca and Corp Group Interhold Affirmed CorpBanca's standalone financial strength, lowered deposit and debt ratings to Baa2; outlook stable; ratings of Corp Group Banking affirmed Davivienda - HSBC Central America Affirmed Banco Davivienda's ratings with a negative outlook Affirmed Davivienda's ratings; outlook changed to stable ICBC - Standard Bank Argentina Placed Standard Bank Argentina's ratings on review for possible downgrade Confirmed the local currency ratings of Standard Bank Argentina Grupo Aval - BAC Credomatic Affirmed Banco de Bogotá's ratings; outlook changed to stable Placed Banco de Bogotá's ratings on review for possible downgrade Source: Moody’s Investors Service Latin American Banks Will Be More Strategic About M&A in 2014 6 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 » Slower economic growth, rising interest rates, weaker currencies and an absence of available targets will compel banks to be more selective going forward. Many large banks, especially those in Colombia, have less available cash and face higher financing costs than they did just a few years ago. Banks will be more conservative and less inclined to take on opportunistic deals, instead focusing on select transactions that will fit within their long-term regional strategies. » Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru will attract the most interest from investors. Far-reaching reforms of Mexico’s financial, energy and electricity sectors passed in 2013 have made the country a prime target for Latin American banks looking to expand regionally. In 2013, Mexico increased by 13% its share of the investment banking profit pool cementing its position as the secondlargest market for investment-banking fees in the region, according to Dealogic. Brazil’s Banco Itaú BBA S.A. and Banco BTG Pactual S.A. both opened new broker dealer operations in Mexico in October 2013 and January 2014, respectively. Chile, Colombia and Peru also attracted the attention of investment banks, as demonstrated by BTG Pactual’s acquisition of leading Chilean brokerage firm Celfin in February 2012, and Bolsa y Renta in Colombia in June 2012. Peru’s BCP also bought a broker dealer IM Trust in Chile in April 2012. » Small banks facing intense competition from larger newcomers may try to position themselves for takeovers. Some have already refocused their businesses and improved credit quality and underwriting standards through domestic bank acquisitions. Brazil’s Banco Indusval S.A., for example, which cleaned up its loan portfolio, shifted the focus of its franchise towards selected lending segments, and acquired boutique investment bank boutique Voga, in May 2013, and Banco Intercap (unrated), in June 2013. SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING 3. M&A Activity Involving Latin American Banks Will Likely Spread Beyond the Region » New global players, especially Chinese banks, have taken an interest in the region. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.’s purchase of Argentina’s Standard Bank Group Ltd. in 2011 marked a starting point for a period of investment in the Latin American banking sector. Rising economic ties between Asia’s growing economies and natural resource exporters in Latin America will continue to drive interest. In 2013 China Construction Bank Corp. agreed to buy a majority stake of Brazil’s Banco Industrial e Comercial SA. (BicBanco). The Chinese bank also plans to invest $200 million in Chile, where it recently applied for a banking license. The latter is aimed at meeting the needs of Chinese companies wishing to operate in the Chilean market. » Latin American financial groups are also looking outside the hemisphere, including opportunities in the US and Spain, where banks are in search of capital. Recent deals saw Latin American groups engaging in minority participations in Spanish banks. such as Colombia’s Banco GNB Sudameris in Banco Sabadell, S.A. or Mexico’s Banco Ve por Más, S.A and its shareholders in Banco Popular Español. Chile’s BCI and Banco do Brasil also ventured in the US market with acquisitions of small banks in Florida. 4. While M&A is Broadly Positive, Credit and Regulatory Risks May Increase 7 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 » M&A activity also brings risks to buyers, especially for banks that enter into leveraged deals and incur execution risks. We have taken some negative actions following the announcement of mergers or acquisitions, acknowledging potential execution risks. While acquisitions can help banks diversify their client base and expand their footprint, the benefits may take time to materialize. For example, Bancolombia’s acquisition of HSBC Bank Panama will only be accretive in 18 month’s time because of sizable investments in systems and technology. » Integrating new businesses into an existing bank presents a challenge, especially working in new jurisdictions. Most transactions have resulted in the acquirer obtaining full control over its target bank. However, full control does not guarantee success. For banks with strong domestic market positions but limited experience in running international operations, the transition may test management’s capabilities. » Increased interconnectedness of economies and banking systems unlocks growth potential. The creation of regional banks is a catalyst for increased cross border activity and maximization of economies of scale and business expertise, as products and management skills are transferred across the region. Larger banking groups will tend to be more profitable as they command pricing power and attract more business. Nevertheless, increased regional competition puts pressures on margins and market position in the short run, particularly for weaker peers. » Regulating financial institutions with a presence in several jurisdictions will be a challenge for banking regulators. While regulatory oversight in the region tends to be prudent, banks’ expanding regional presence challenges the ability of regulators to coordinate banking regulation and supervision across Latin America. Regulators also must pay more close attention to crossborder risks and to their ability to gather information and respond to idiosyncratic situations. Achieving consistency of accounting and reporting is another challenge for banks and regulators in the region, as they engage in expansion and acquisitions. SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING Moody’s Related Research Issuer Comments: » Brazil’s Itau Unibanco Acquires Control of Chile’s CorpBanca, a Credit Positive, February 2014 (163789) » Grupo Aval’s Porvenir Makes Credit Positive Acquisition of BBVA’s Colombian Asset Manager, January 2103 (148901) » Bancolombia Completes Acquisition of HSBC Panamá, a Credit Negative, November 2013 (160363) » Argentina’s Approval of SBA Sale to ICBC Is Credit Positive for Standard Bank of South Africa and Standard Bank Argentina, November 2012 (147514) » Mizuho’s Brazilian Acquisition Creates a Credit Positive Beachhead, June 2012 (143333) » GNB’s Acquisition of HSBC Subsidiaries in Colombia, Peru, Uruguay and Paraguay Is Credit Positive, May 2012 (142230) » BCP’s Acquisition of Chile’s IM Trust Is Credit Positive, April 2012 (141746) » Corpbanca’s Bold Purchase of Santander Colombia Is Credit Positive, December 2011 (138049) » BTG Pactual’s Acquisition of Chilean Broker Boosts Its Latin American Presence, August 2011 (135518) » Banco do Brasil Acquisition’s of Eurobank Would Be Credit Positive, April 2011 (132724) » Grupo Aval’s Acquisition of BAC Credomatic May Hurt Banco de Bogotá, July 2010 (126528) Credit Focus: » Banco de Bogotá & Bancolombia: Peer Comparison, December 2013 (161415) Banking System Outlook: » Colombia, October 2013 (157157) Industry Outlook: » 2014 Outlook - Latin American Banks, November 2013 (153363) To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of this report and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients. 8 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING Appendix 1 List Of Domestic M&A Deals In Latin America Buyer / Domicile Target / Domicile Completion/ Announcement Termination Transaction Date Date Price Credicorp / Perú Mibanco / Perú Feb-14 Financing USD 179 million Sagicor Group Jamaica Ltd / Royal Bank of Canada's Jan-14 Jamaica banking and stock trading businesses in Jamaica / Jamaica USD 84 million Undisclosed Centro Financiero BHD / Dominican Republic Grupo Financiero Leon / Dec-13 Dominican Republic CI Banco / México New York Mellon México / México Aug-13 Banco Indusval / Brazil Banco Intercap / Brazil Jun-13 Nov-13 Itaú Uruguay / Uruguay Retail business of Citigroup / Uruguay Jun-13 Nov-13 Davivienda / Colombia Corredores Asociados / Feb-13 Colombia Sep-13 USD 63 million Cash Grupo Aval's pension fund management company (Porvenir) / Colombia BBVA's Colombian asset Dec-12 manager (Horizonte) / Colombia Apr-13 USD 530 million Banorte / México Afore Bancomer / México Jan-13 USD 1.6 billion Dec-12 Business Focus Credit implication 60.68% stake Microlending Positive 100% Universal Ownership CF BHD and associates (50% of the shares) and Banco Leon (25% and part of the purchase of the shares that Sabadell Bank of Spain has in the CF BHD) MXN 500 million USD 49 million 100% Trust Fund Services 100% SME Negative Retail Positive 100% Investment Bank Positive Undisclosed 99.99% Asset Managemen t Positive Cash 50% Pension Business Unit Positive Retail Positive Cash Cash BBVA Paraguay / Paraguay Citibank's credit card portfolio / Paraguay Nov-12 Banque Heritage / Uruguay Lloyds TSB Bank / Uruguay Sep-12 Cash 100% Corporate/R Positive etail Banco de Servicios y Transacciones Holding Group / Argentina Banco Cetelem / Argentina Aug-12 Undisclosed 100% Retail Oriental Financial Group / Puerto Rico BBVA Puerto Rico / Puerto Rico Jun-12 Cash 100% Universal Banco Supervielle / Argentina Cordial Compañía Aug-11 Financiera (former GE Compañía Financiera) / Argentina 100% Retail Mercantil Colpatria / Colombia Banco Colpatria / Colombia May-11 Undisclosed Undisclosed GE's 49.77% stake Universal Grupo Intercam / México Banco Regional del Norte / México Mar-11 Undisclosed Cash 100% SME 9 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 Dec-12 Jun-11 USD 500 million Mixed Positive Positive SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING List Of Domestic M&A Deals In Latin America Buyer / Domicile Target / Domicile Completion/ Announcement Termination Transaction Date Date Price ABC Holding and Empresas Banco Amigo / México Tolteca (a subsidiary of Cemex) / México Mar-11 BTG Pactual / Brazil Feb-11 May-11 USD 269 million Oct-10 Apr-11 Aug-10 Banco Panamericano / Brazil Grupo Financiero Banorte / Grupo Financiero Ixe / México Mexico Financing Ownership Business Focus Credit implication 100% Commercial /Retail Positive Cash 51% controlling stake Retail/SME Positive USD 1.1 billion Stock 100% Universal Positive USD 6 million Cash 100% Retail Positive Grupo Macro / Argentina Banco Privado de Inversiones / Argentina Comafi / Argentina ABN-AMRO Bank N.V. Sucursal Argentina / Argentina Jun-10 Jul-11 Cash 100% Wholesale Neutral BBVA Uruguay / Uruguay Credit Uruguay Banco / Mar-10 Uruguay Jan-11 Undisclosed 100% Commercial /Retail Positive Regional / Paraguay ABN AMRO / Paraguay Oct-09 Cash 100% Commercial Positive Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Bloomberg, Latin Finance, BNamericas, national and international media, websites and financial statements of the entities mentioned 10 FEBRUARY 14, 2014 SPECIAL COMMENT: REGIONAL CONSOLIDATION HAS MIXED CREDIT IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICAN BANKS BANKING Report Number: 165025 Author Busy Juarez Production Associate Srinivasan Raghavan Research Writer Matthew Walter © 2014 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. 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