China`s Activities in the South China Sea

China’s Activities in the South China Sea
July 28, 2015
Ministry of Defense
1-1 China Makes Advances into South China Sea (SCS)
China has made advances into the SCS exploiting power vacuums (1950s-70s: Paracel Islands;
80s-: Spratly Islands）
Timeline
France withdraws from French Indochina
↓
1950s：
China occupies half of Paracel Islands
(South Vietnam also advances to Paracel
Islands)
↓
1973：
U.S. withdraws from South Vietnam
↓
1974：
China occupies entire Paracel Islands
(dislodging South Vietnam)
(1975: Collapse of South Vietnam (after Vietnam War))
China’s
Advancement
Pratas Islands
1950s：
Mid-1980s： Soviet presence in Vietnam decreased
↓
1980s：
China advances to Spratly Islands
1988：
China occupies six features in Spratly Islands
1992：
1995：
US withdraws from the Philippines
↓
China occupies Mischief Reef
2000s：
China advances to southern SCS
2012：
China gains de facto control over
Scarborough Schoal
2014-：
China conducts large-scale reclamation in SCS
1950s
Paracel
Islands
Scarborough
Shoal
Fully occupied
in 1974
6 features are
Spratly occupied
Mischief Reef
in 1988
Occupied in 1995
↓
Islands Massive reclamation
since 2014
Second Thomas Shoal
“Nine-dash line”
South Luconia Shoal
James Shoal
0
500
1,000km
1
1-2 China’s Maritime Push and Armed Clashes
As China sought to gain control over new maritime features, it came into two armed clashes with
Vietnam in 1974 and 1988.
In January 1974, China sent a naval fleet (six ships incl.
patrol boats) with militia onboard to western portion of the
Paracels, which China had not occupied. Armed clashes
with South Vietnamese frigates and other ships ensued.
Losses/Casualties (China)
Four vessels damaged
85 killed or injured
Patrol boat (China)
Losses/Casualties (South Vietnam)
One vessel sunk, three damaged
100+ killed or injured
Frigate (South Vietnam)
In January 1988, China, which had possessed no foothold
in the Spratlys, sent a naval fleet to Fiery Cross Reef and
built a structure on the Reef. In March same year, three
Chinese frigates clashed with three Vietnamese ships
including a landing ship at Johnson South Reef.
Losses/Casualties (Vietnam)
Two vessels sunk, one damaged
400+ killed or injured
China
Paracel Islands
Woody Island
Duncan Island
Structures on features etc.
：China
：Taiwan
：Vietnam
：Philippines
：Malaysia
Vietnam
South Vietnam withdrew, China occupied the entire
Paracel Islands.
Losses/Casualties (China)
One killed
Pratas Islands
Frigate (China)
Subi Reef
Spratly Islands
Philippines
Gaven Reefs
Hughes Reef
Fiery Cross Reef
Mischief Reef
Cuarteron Reef
Johnson South Reef
“Nine-dash line”
Brunei
Attacked vessel (Vietnam)
Vietnam withdrew, China occupied Johnson South Reef.
Indonesia
Malaysia
※ On the causes of these two clashes, China cited South Vietnam’s illegitimate incursions and provocations.
0
500
1,000km
（Ref.) Ministry of National Defense of China , Various press reports etc.
2
1-3 Activities by PLA, Maritime Law Enforcement Forces (MLEF) etc.
① In June 2010, near Natuna Islands, China’s
MLEF vessel allegedly aimed a cannon at an
Indonesian patrol vessel that seized a Chinese
fishing boat.
② In May 2011, off the coast of Vietnam, China’s
MLEF (China Maritime Surveillance) vessel
allegedly obstructed the operation of Vietnamese
resource exploration ship, and cut the cables that it
was laying.
③ In June 2011, around Vanguard Bank, Chinese
vessel allegedly obstructed the navigation of
operating Vietnamese resource exploration ship.
④ After the confrontation against Vietnamese
vessels in 2012, China’s MLEF (China Coast
Guard) vessels have maintained their presence
around Scarborough Shoal.
⑤ In May 2013, PLAN and China’s MLEF vessels
allegedly blocked the Philippine military’s supply
mission to its sentinel post (old landing ship) at
Second Thomas Shoal.
⑥ In October 2013, China allegedly sent MLEF
vessels near South Luconia Shoal. Moreover, in
January 2014, PLAN vessels allegedly conducted
activities near James Shoal.
⑦ From May to July 2014, to the south of Triton
Island, China placed oil rigs with escort of PLAN
and MLEF (China Coast Guard) vessels, and faced
off against Vietnamese vessels.
⑧ In August 2014, China’s MLEF (China Coast
Guard) vessels allegedly put markers around Reed
Bank. Also in 2011, Chinese vessels obstructed
the navigation of Philippine ship in the same area.
⑨ In April 2015, the Philippines expressed concern
about a series of China’s actions near Subi Reef,
such as aiming powerful light to Philippine Air
Force plane and warning to leave the area.
China Coast Guard vessel
used water cannon on a
Vietnamese ship
“Haiyang Shiyou 981”
China
China Maritime Surveillance vessel
allegedly cut cables
Triton Island
Structures on features etc.
：China
：Taiwan
：Vietnam
：Philippines
：Malaysia
※ Thin dash lines are basically
200NM lines from coasts.
Scarborough Shoal
⑦
②
④
⑨
Vietnam
⑧
Philippines
Reef Bank
Subi Reef
Gaven Reefs
Hughes Reef
Fiery Cross Reef
Cuarteron Reef
Mischief Reef
⑤
③
Second Thomas Shoal
Sentinel post of the Philippine military (old landing ship)
Vanguard Bank
①
Johnson South Reef
North Luconia Shoal
Indonesia
Natuna Islands
⑥
South Luconia Shoal
Brunei
James Shoal
Malaysia
0
500
1,000km
（Ref.) Various press reports etc.
3
2-1 China’s Occupation in SCS (before reclamation)
● China gained de facto control over seven maritime features in the Spratlys and built structures at all of the
seven features.
● Based on its sovereignty claim, China has taken legislative and administrative actions such as the enactment
of the Law on Territorial Sea (1992) and establishment of Sansha City and the Sansha Security District (2012).
Subi Reef
Structures on features etc.
：China
：Taiwan
：Vietnam
：Philippines
：Malaysia
1997
Philippines
Paracel Islands
Macclesfield Bank
※ Thin dash lines are basically 200NM
lines from coasts.
Scarborough Shoal
Gaven Reefs
“Nine-dash line”
Vietnam
1990
Hughes Reef
Fiery Cross Reef
1988
1988
Cuarteron Reef
1991
Johnson South Reef
1988
Spratly Islands
Mischief Reef
1995
Brunei
Malaysia
0
500
1,000km
（Ref.) Various press reports etc.
4
2-2 China’s Occupation in SCS (after reclamation)
Structures on features etc.
：China
：Taiwan
：Vietnam
：Philippines
：Malaysia
Woody Island
China engages in large-scale
reclamation work at features
under its de facto control. As
of Oct. 2014, Fiery Cross Reef
has become the largest land
feature in the Spratlys.
(*Taiwanese-controlled Itu Aba
Island had been the largest.)
Fully occupied in 1974
（US withdrawal from South Vietnam in 1973）
Paracel Isalands
Subi Reef
※ Thin dash lines are basically
200NM lines from coasts.
2,400m-class runway
⇒ Extension work
EW Radar [est.]
Scarborough Shoal
Macclesfield Bank
Gaven Reefs
Fiery Cross Reef
15 Nov. 2014
(Ref.) CSIS/AMTI
Runway and apron construction underway
12 Apr. 2015
Philippines
Hughes Reef
(Ref.) Philippine Armed Forces
Massive reclamation
Enough space for building a 2nd runway
Twin cannon
Reclamation completed
Infrastructure being built
Mar. 23. 2015 (Ref.) IHS Jane’s
Cuarteron Reef
Vietnam
24 Jan. 2015 (Ref.) IHS Jane’s
Mischief Reef
Reclamation completed
Infrastructure being built
Johnson South Reef
Spratly Islands
Late 1990s
19 Jan. 2015
13 Apr. 2015
(Ref.) The Diplomat
“Nine-dash line”
1988
4 Mar. 2015
(Ref.) Philippine Armed Forces
6 features are occupied in 1988
(except Mischief Reef)
(Decrease in Soviet Presence in Vietnam in 1980s)
29 Jul. 2014
Reclamation completed
Infrastructure being built
Massive reclamation
(Ref.) CSIS/AMTI
15 Nov. 2014
(Ref.) CSIS/AMTI
Early 1990s
Reclamation completed
Infrastructure being built
28 Feb. 2013
Indonesia
Malaysia
0
Occupied in 1995
(US withdrawal from the Philippines in 1992)
500
1,000km
（Ref.) Various press reports etc. ※CSIS/AMTI = CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative / DigitalGlobe
5
3-1 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS
Johnson South Reef
Feb. 2013
Hughes Reef
Jan. 2015
2013
Aug. 2014
(Ref.) CSIS Asia Maritime
Transparency Initiative /
DigitalGlobe (※), IHS
Jane’s, Various press
reports etc.
Original
Structure
Original
Structure
Cuarteron Reef
Mar. 2013
Gaven Reefs
Nov. 2014
Mar. 2014
Nov. 2014
Original
Structure
※
Fiery Cross Reef
Original
Structure
Jan. 2015
※
Subi Reef
Apr. 2015
Mar. 2015
Aug. 2014
Original Structure
（EW Radar [est.]）
Original
Structure
※
※
Mischief Reef
2012
US DoD “Annual Report to Congress – Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC 2015” (May 8, 2015)
Apr. 2015
“ As of late December 2014, China had reclaimed about 500 acres (= 2km2) of land as part of this effort. … Although it is unclear what will ultimately be built on
these expanded outposts, they could include harbors, communications and surveillance systems, logistics support, and at least one airfield.” (* A DoD official
said that China had reclaimed approx. 2,000 acres (= 8km2) of land in the SCS on the day of publication.)
On March 31, 2015, then U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander expressed concern describing China’s reclamation in the SCS as “Great Wall of Sand”.
On April 9, 2015, the China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said: “After the construction, the islands and reefs will be able to provide … services to meet
various civilian demands satisfying the need of necessary military defense”.
Original
Structure
On April 21, 2015, the Philippines Chief of Staff said that the reclamation “will cause tensions … due to its possible military purposes”.
⇒ Various press reports pointed out the possibility of militarization of these reclaimed features based
on satellite images and/or quoting statements above.
6
3-2 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS (for each feature)
Johnson South Reef
February 2013
(Ref.) Philippine Armed Forces
February 2014
(Ref.) Philippine Armed Forces
August 2014
(Ref.) IHS Jane’s
7
3-3 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS (for each feature)
Hughes Reef
January 2015
2013
既存の施設
Original Structure
(Ref.) Various Info.
(Ref.) IHS Jane’s
8
3-4 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS (for each feature)
Cuarteron Reef
March 2013
November 2014
出典： 南海諸島網20140724
Original Structure
(Ref.) Various Info.
(Ref.) CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
/ DigitalGlobe
9
3-5 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS (for each feature)
Gaven Reefs
August 2014
March 2014
January 2015
Original Structure
(Ref.) IHS Jane’s
(Ref.) IHS Jane’s
(Ref.) IHS Jane’s
10
3-6 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS (for each feature)
Fiery Cross Reef
August 2014
March 2015
Original Structure
(Ref.) CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
/ DigitalGlobe
(Ref.) CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
/ DigitalGlobe
11
3-7 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS (for each feature)
Subi Reef
January
2015
既存の施設
April 2015
Original Structure
（EW Radar [est.]）
(Ref.) IHS Jane’s
(Ref.) The Diplomat
12
3-8 China’s Reclamation Activities in SCS (for each feature)
Mischief Reef
January 2012
April 2015
Original Structure
(Ref.) CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
/ DigitalGlobe
(Ref.) The Diplomat
13
4 China’s Increasing Presence after Spratly’s Militarization
In general terms, China’s possible construction of military facilities in the Spratly Islands would have the following
ramifications.
Woody Island
Paracel
Islands
Effects of Port Construction
Macclesfield Bank
Subi Reef
Vietnam
Philippines
Gaven Reefs
Effects of Runway Construction
Mischief Reef
Fiery Cross Reef
Hughes Reef
Cuarteron Reef
Johnson South Reef
Spratly
Islands
Malaysia
0
※Image
500
1,000km
Taiwan
2000km 1500km
Vietnam
“Nine-dash line”
South China Sea
Su-27/30
Spratly
Islands
UAV
200km 1800km
Malaysia
Malacca Strait
Philippines
Fiery Cross Reef
H-6
（Approx. 1,400km）
Sunda Strait
（Approx. 1,800km）
● Building port facilities of certain size capable of berthing, resupply and
maintenance would enable China to maintain more robust naval and maritime
law enforcement presence in the entire SCS.
⇒ Some observers suggest considerable impact on coastal states of the SCS.
Lombok Strait
（Approx. 2,000km）
※Image
● Fiery Cross Reef with an airstrip and support facilities would enable China
to forward-deploy various aerial platforms (incl. fighters, bombers and UAVs).
Its ramifications may include:
① China’s improved air power-projection capability over the entire SCS;
② enhanced air superiority over the SCS;
③ improved A2/AD capabilities against U.S. intervention; and,
④ possible declaration of an “SCS Air Defense Identification Zone”.
● Reclamation is also being done at large-scale features such as Subi Reef,
leading some observers to suggest possible construction of multiple airstrips
in the Spratly Islands and attendant increase in China’s air force presence.
Effects of Increasing Air/Maritime Presence
● Sustained deployment of various platforms including naval and law
enforcement ships as well as aircraft enabled by military base construction
would dramatically improve China’s ISR and other mission capabilities in the
central and southern portions of the SCS.
● Some observers express concern over China’s achieving further fait
accompli in the maritime domain, if China showcases the viability of these
“islands” to sustain economic life by, for example, promoting civilian
settlement (e.g. fishermen).
14
5 Comparison of Navy/Air Force Capabilities (China & Philippines/Vietnam/Malaysia)
There is a vast gap both in the quality and quantity of navy/air force capabilities between main coastal states in SCS (i.e.
the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia) and China.
China Warship×892 (1,423kt)
Combat aircraft×2,582
4th-generation
(incl.
fighter×689)
Submarine: Shang-class (6,100t)×2
Fighter：J-10×264
Yuan-class (2,900t)×12
Su-27/J-11×328
Kilo-class (3,100t)×12 etc.
Su-30×97 etc.
Destroyer: Sovremennyy-class (6,500t)×4
Patrol
aircraft
(fixed-wing): Y-8×3 etc.
Luyang II (5,700t)×3 etc.
China
Vietnam
Philippines
Vietnam
Naval Infantry: approx. 27,000
(Vietnam Fisheries Resources Surveillance)
Coastal patrol vessel (>1,500t)×2
Coastal patrol vessel (<1,500t) ×1; Patrol aircraft×3 etc.
※ Excluding aircraft of coast guard etc.
1,500
1,000
0
97
71
Combat aircraft×26
26
※ The Philippines purchased 12 Korean
fighters FA-50 in 2014, and they will be
in service by 2017.
Fighter: null※
Attacker: OV-10 Bronco×10
Patrol aircraft (fixed-wing): F-27×1; N-22SL×1 etc.
Malaysia
Coastal patrol vessel (<1,500t)×5
Air-sea rescue helicopter×3 etc.
Malaysia
Combat Aircraft
2,000
500
Submarine: null
Frigate: Hamilton-class (2,700t)×2
Cannon-class (1,400t)×1
Corvette: Auk-class (1,100t)×2 etc.
Marines: approx. 8,300
Philippine Coast Guard: vessel×58
Vietnam Coast Guard: vessel×34+
2,582
※ According to Global Times, China
possesses 52 MLEF vessels (>1,000tclass).
Warship×80 (47kt)
Submarine: Kilo-class(3,100t)×2; Yugo-class(100t)×2
Frigate: Gepard-class (1,600t)×2; Petya-class (1,000t)×5
Corvette: BPS500 (400t)×1
Combat aircraft×97（incl. 4th-generation fighter×34)
Fighter: Su-30MK2×23; Su-27×11; MiG-21×33 etc.
Patrol aircraft (fixed-wing): null
2,500
Coastal patrol vessel (>1,500t)×18
Coastal patrol vessel (<1,500t)×48
etc.
Philippines
Warship×94 (37kt)
3,000
MLEF vessel×370+
（ｔ）
Warship×208 (58kt)
140
Submarine: Scorpène-class (1,800t)×2
Frigate: Lekiu-class (1,900t)×2; Corvette: Kasturi-class (1,500t)×2
etc.
Combat aircraft×71（incl. 4th-generation fighter×36)
Fighter: Mig-29×10; Su-30MKM×18; F/A-18×8 etc.
Patrol aircraft (fixed-wing): null
120
Malaysia Maritime Enforcement Agency: 4,500
Vessel×189; Marine Police: 2,100
Coastal patrol vessel (>1,500t)×2; Patrol aircraft×2
Air-sea rescue helicopter×3 etc.
Warship
142.3
※ Excluding vessel of
coast guard etc.
1,000
Total tonnage
892
Number of vessel
100
600
80
60
40
20
0
800
400
208
5.8
4.7
80
94
3.7
200
0
(Ref.) Military Balance (2014), Jane’s Fighting Ships 2013-2014 etc.
15
6 Development Trends of Other Countries/Region in SCS
● Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan in the 1980s/90s built runways (600-1,200m) on the land
features over which they have de facto control.
● All these countries/region have done facility maintenance and development. Reports suggest that
Vietnam has recently conducted reclamation work.
Structures on features etc.
：China
：Taiwan
：Vietnam
：Philippines
：Malaysia
30 Aug. 2011
Paracel
Islands
Approx.
423m
19 Feb. 2015
(Ref.) CSIS/AMTI
Vietnam
Thitu Island
（Philippines）
Approx. 1,200m runway
Sand Cay
(Vietnam)
Satellite images taken in August
2011 and February 2015 found
that Vietnam reclaimed about
21,000m2 at Sand Cay.
Itu Aba Island (Taiwan)
West London Reef
(Vietnam)
Deep water wharf at which 3,000t-class vessel
can be anchored is under construction
(scheduled for completion in the end of 2015)
Satellite images taken in January
2010 and April 2015 proved that
Vietnam reclaimed approximately
65,000m2 at West London Reef.
Approx.
162m
Philippines
Approx. 1,200m runway
Approx.
173m
※ Thin dash lines are basically 200NM
lines from coasts.
3 Jan. 2010
Runway renovation plan
was announced in 2011,
but the construction work
has not yet started.
Swallow Reef (Malaysia)
Spratly Islands
Approx. 1,400m runway
Spratly Island (Vietnam)
Brunei
Approx.
494m
30 Apr. 2015
(Ref.) CSIS/AMTI
“Nine-dashed line”
Approx. 600m runway
Malaysia
0
（Ref.) Various press reports etc.
Runway extension work was conducted in
2003 (from 1,000m to 1,400m)
500
1,000km
※CSIS/AMTI = CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative / DigitalGlobe
16」