- Evidence-Based tuberculosis Diagnosis

Innovation Prizes
TB Diagnostics in India: From Imitation
and Importation to Innovation
St John’s Research Institute
Bangalore
August 25, 2011
Jaykumar Menon
Senior Director,
Education and Global Development
[email protected]
Innovation Prize Overview
Innovation prizes are experiencing rapid
growth
Rapid resurgence over last 35
years for large scale prizes
(> $100 K)
• Total value of large prizes has
increased by 15-fold over last
35 years
• Purses of large scale prizes
have tripled over past 10
years
• 60 prizes have been launched
since 2000
• Ansari X PRIZE completion in
2004 catapulted prizes into
international spotlight
Aggregate Prize Purse (prizes
Purse
(prizes
over
$100
K) over $100 K)1
$ MillionsAggregate Prize
300 300 200 200 100 100 0- 01970
1970
1980
1980
1990
1990
2000
2000
2009
2009
Source: ”’And the Winner is..’: Capturing the Promise of Philanthropic Prizes.” McKinsey & Company,
March 3, 2009
1. Source: ”’And the Winner is..’: 1. Source: ”’And the Winner is..’: Capturing the Promise of Philanthropic Prizes.” McKinsey & Company, March 3, 2009
Capturing the Promise of Philanthropic Prizes.” McKinsey & Company, March 3, 2009
1927 Orteig Prize: New York - Paris
“First team to fly non-stop between
NY and Paris…”
• Orteig puts up $25,000
• 9 Teams spend $400,000
• Lindbergh, 25 year old underdog wins!
• Results:
• Top media story of the century
• Transformed public’s view of aviation
• 6,000  180,000 passengers in 18 months
Ansari X PRIZE
Ansari
X PRIZE: “First team to
fly 3 people to space, twice
within 2 weeks”
Rules:
• $10 Million prize purse
• Privately funded teams
• 3 person reusable spaceship
• 100 km altitude
• Two flights within 2 weeks
Competing Teams
26 teams from 7 nations spent >$100
million, sparking a new generation of
space entrepreneurs
ARCA
Space Transport
DaVinci Project
Canadian Arrow
Rocketplane
Armadillo Aerospace
StarChaser
Pablo DeLeon
Scaled Composites
More than 20 different technical approaches were tried by teams.
… >6 Billion Media Impressions Worth in Excess of $120 Million
History was made
Incentive Prize (X PRIZE) Design Attributes:

Target market failure

Clear, objective & simple rules

Visionary, bold, audacious goal… Hard
but attainable

Define a problem, not a solution

Can be won in 1 - 8 years

Assure a “post-prize” impact

Open to teams worldwide

Create heroes
Innovation prizes are powerful tools for change
Incentive prizes are given to a team for having accomplished a specific goal. They allow the
organizers to....
1. Establish an important goal without having to choose the approach or the team that is
most likely to succeed
2. Pay only for results
3. Highlight excellence in a particular domain of human endeavor to motivate, inspire, and
guide others
4. Increase the number and diversity of the individuals, organizations, and teams that are
addressing a particular problem or challenge of national or international significance
5. Improve the skills of the participants in the competition
6. Stimulate private sector investment that is many times greater than the cash value of
the prize
7. Further a Federal agency’s mission by attracting more interest and attention to a
defined program, activity, or issue of concern
8. Capture the public imagination and change the public’s perception of what is possible
1. Source: ”’And the Winner is..’:
Source: OMB Guidance on the Use of Prizes to Promote Open Government, Executive Office of the (US)
President, March 8, 2010. Capturing the Promise of Philanthropic Prizes.” McKinsey & Company, March 3, 2009
National governments have a long tradition of
deploying innovation prizes
United
Kingdom


1714. Longitude Prize. £20,000 purse. £2,750,000 in current terms
1839-1939. Royal Agricultural Society1 awards 1,986 prizes.

1809. Food Preservation Prize, offered by Napoleon. 12000 Francs purse.

2000. China Energy-Efficient Refrigerators Project. $150,000 purse


2003 - present. Nirmal Gram Puraskar for open defecation free status (25,000 villages)
Current (in design phase). Cookstoves prize
France
China
India
U.S.A







2005 - present. NASA Centennial Challenges (XPF assistance)
2007-2010. Dep’t Energy collaborates with $10M Progressive Insurance Automotive X PRIZE
2009. Obama Administration Strategy for American Innovation endorses use of prizes
Mar 2010. OMB issues memo to all federal agencies recommending use of prizes
April 2010. White House conference on prizes attended by 30 federal agencies – XPF keynote
Dec 2010. Congress passes America Competes Act - broad prize authority to all federal agencies
Current - USAID commences Grand Challenges – possible future prize component
(1) Independent charity with a Royal Chartert Promise of Philanthropic Prizes.” McKinsey & Company, March 3, 2009
Innovation Prizes and
Development
Five Themes for Prize-Driven Innovation in Development
and Potential Prizes
Hunger





Better Iron
Supplement
Multifortified
Rice
Health

TB Diagnostics

Cookstoves

Stop Anemia
Breastfeeding
Promotion
World Hunger
Prize


Open Source
Schistosomias
is
Bihar District
Maternal and
Child Health
MDG Prize*
Business/Finance






Low-Cost
Money
Transfer
Environment


Microfinance
for
Agriculture
Global Food
Stamp

Cleaner
Processes
Fair Trade
Chocolate
Voting
Technology
Prize*


Drinking
Water
Sanitation:
Community/C
omposting
Latrines
Watershed
Management:
Rainfall
Capture
Village Level
Renewable
Energy
Save the
Tigers
Education



Girls’
Education
Literacy
Thematic
Education (e.g
nutrition,
health)
Applicability of the Incentive Prize Model to
At root, a prize sets incentives, operates in areas of market failure, and could be applied to
Development
a broad range of actors and targets
Teams/Parties

Tech entrepreneurs

Heads of state

Governments

Corporations

Communities

Citizens


Algorythm
Developers
Geographic areas
(cities, districts,
states, nations)
Types of Prizes



Technology
Creation
Technology
Creation plus
Distribution
Scaleup/Distribution

Participation

Behavior Change

“Olympics”
Complements to Prizes




Advance Market
Commitments
Investor Ecosystems
Educational
programming
Special Features within
the Prize Model

Shared purse for all
beyond a threshold

Grant-prize hybrid

Unitary purse

Student entrants


Metric is not just
market size, but
DALYs,
environmental
targets, etc.
One-third reduction
metric
Purse held in trust
Prizes in the development sphere could take a number of forms,
encompassing technology, business, and social innovation



Technology:

Technology Creation (e.g. tuberculosis diagnostics)

Technology Creation plus Distribution
Business

Scale-up/Distribution (e.g. prize for distributing double fortified salt)

Extension of Business Models (e.g. microfinance for agriculture)

Cleaner Business Processes (competitions to reduce water/energy use, or to meet fair trade metrics)

Local Fabrication (e.g prize for village-assembled solar charging kits)
Social

Behavior Change (e.g. obesity reduction prizes for citizens, Mo Ibrahim prize for heads of state)

Participation (e.g FIRST robotics competitions for students)

Education prizes (for nutrition education, agricultural extension, breastfeeding promotion

Olympic-style prizes for indicator achievement (e.g Nirmal Gram Puruskar village total sanitation prize – encompassing
10% of Indian panchayats, or possible prize for national level achievement in MDGs) at village, district, state/province, or
national levels
External Environment and Complements for Prizes

Advance Market Commitments

Grant-Prize Hybrid

Investor Eco-systems

Educational Programming

Integration of Prize into Larger Effort (e.g. Government of India’s National Biomass
Cooktoves Initiatives)
X PRIZE Overview
Mission:
To bring about radical breakthroughs for
the benefit of humanity.
Two Types of Prize Competitions
X PRIZES:
• $10M or more
• 3 – 8 years
• Paradigm Change
X CHALLENGES:
• $250K to $2.5M
• 1 – 2 years
• Tech Demo
Four X PRIZE Groups:
Life Sciences
Exploration
Energy &
Environment
Education &
Global Development
Trustee & Vision Circle Members
Eric Anderson - CEO, Space Adventures
Anousheh Ansari - CEO, Prodea
Michael Boustridge - President, BT – N. Am
Sergey Brin - Co-Founder, Google
Arianna Huffington - CEO, Huffington Post
Dean Kamen - CEO, DEKA
Ray Kurzweil - CEO, Kurzweil AI
Erik Lindbergh - Vice-Chair, Lindbergh Foundation
Elon Musk - CEO, Tesla Motors, SpaceX
Larry Page - Co-Founder, CEO, Google
Adeo Ressi - CEO, The Funded
Eric Schmidt - Chairman, Google
Ratan Tata - Chairman/CEO, Tata Group
Craig Venter - President, J. Craig Venter Institute
Will Wright - Video Game God, Maxis
Active Prizes
A Prize for TB Diagnostics?
TB Diagnostics – X PRIZE Scope of Competition
The proposed PRIZE is a competition to develop comprehensive and accurate TB
diagnostics for use in India and other high-burden, developing countries.
Prize Parameter
Accessible/Affordable
Criteria
Can be manufactured to scale and supplied to
purchase aggregator in a cost-plus model
Sensitivity
>80% accuracy for TB diagnosis
Specificity
>95% accuracy for diagnosis of non-TB patients
User Friendly
Meet FDA’s CLIA Assessment for device usability
with a score of ≤12
Rapid
Total time from sample preparation to result: ≤100minutes/test
Equipment Free (Mobile)
Self-contained with no cold chain, electrical, water
supply or climate control needs
Deliverable
Weight: <10 kg; Size: <30x30x30cm; Storage Life:
≥12 months, at ≥35 degrees C, 70% humidity,
including transport stress (e.g. 48 hours at 50
degrees C)
Teams will compete on the outcomes of their device in a real-world setting:
both in the lab and in the field.
Competition in Two Phases
Launch 1
Launch 2
(Prize Launch)
(Study Competition)
Lab Evaluation Phase
In house data
submissions
Description
Activities
Third Party
Lab Validation
Clinical Study Phase
Clinical Study
• Lab evaluation phase: first five
• Study run by
• Evaluate and validate devices
• Review business plans
• Build required infrastructure for
• Select and
teams to meet all lab criteria
allowed entry to Clinical Study,
plus two wild card slots
Clinical Research
Organization
partner
announce winner
clinical study
26
Questions
-
-
Might you like to participate in shaping the target and structure
of the prize?
Might you be interested in competing?
Quotations concerning prizes
“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir [people]’s blood
and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim
high in hope and work.”
Daniel Burnham, Chicago architect
“Listen! I will be honest with you; I do not offer the old smooth
prizes, but offer rough new prizes; These are the days that must
happen to you.”
Walt Whitman, Leaves of Grass - Song of the Open Road
“In the long run, [you] only hit what [you] aim at.”
Henry David Thoreau