Latin America Quarterly Newsletter – October

Latin America Quarterly Newsletter – October 2015
Historic deal signed
between FARC rebels
and the Colombian
government
Mexico
Footage released shows prison guards
ignoring El Chapo’s tunnel construction…
Colombia
Any peace agreement will further improve
security situation and economic outlook…
Venezuela
Low public spending and rising poverty
indicators underpin a rise in criminality…
Brazil
Police tactics in Rio’s favelas heavily
criticised for sparking social unrest…
Ecuador
Thousands demonstrate against proposed
constitutional amendments…
Latin America Quarterly – October 2015
Footage released reportedly showing prison guards ignoring
El Chapo’s tunnel construction increases public distrust of
Mexico’s federal government.
See below for more information
The Colombian government and the FARC agreed on the
fundamental structure of a transitional justice system for
punishing crimes committed during the conflict.
See below for more information
Rise in criminality and extortion cases perpetrated by gangs
and security forces underpinned by the country’s economic
crisis.
See below for more information
Police killings continue to spark social unrest in Rio de
Janeiro’s poorer neighbourhoods and favelas, with some
protests turning violent.
See below for more information
Proposed amendments to the Ecuadorian constitution will be
decided by President Correa’s fellow party members in
parliament, likely resulting in further social unrest.
See below for more information
Notable regional headlines
Mexico
01 September: Official statistics
show an increase in the number of
homicides in Mexico City
Guatemala
22 October: Authorities arrest seven people
for trafficking heroin to the US
22 September: Three judges arrested on
corruption charges
Venezuela
09 August: US national resident for more
than 40 years stabbed to death at his home
in Caracas
Colombia
06 October: Security forces conduct
large-scale operation against the
Urabeños, one of the most powerful
criminal groups in the country
Ecuador
31 October: Constitutional Court
refuses referendum on re-election
amendments
17 August: Thousands protest in Quito
against a series of proposed political
reforms
Peru
29 September: Government declares
state of emergency in five southern
provinces following violent protests
against mining that left three dead
Bolivia
08 September: Mob lynches man
accused of attempting to murder a taxi
driver in El Alto
Argentina
22 October: Several injured during antimining protest in San Juan province, the
site of reported September cyanide spill
Brazil
01 October: Footage released
ostensibly showing Rio de Janeiro
police extrajudicial killing
17 September: Authorities arrest
most wanted drug trafficker in
Guaruja
The information contained in this report is based on open source material, including news articles, and should be regarded as offering a
snapshot of global security incidents. Given the selectivity and incomplete or inaccurate nature of some news articles, the information
contained in this report is not exhaustive or 100% accurate. Any conclusions made from this report should take these limitations into account.
For bespoke security risk analysis and reports please contact [email protected]
2
Mexico
Footage released purportedly showing prison guards
ignoring El Chapo’s tunnel construction increases
public distrust of the federal government.
Security
number of reports of drivers being attacked while stuck in
traffic throughout Mexico. In such incidents drivers or
In early October the notorious drug cartel leader Joaquin passengers are often robbed or assaulted. The recent
“El Chapo” Guzman was reportedly injured in an operation development has led to an increased number of police
by authorities aiming to recapture him following his escape officers being positioned near busy avenues or roads.
from a high-security prison in July. Although few details
have been released regarding the operation, authorities Kidnapping
confirmed the incident took place on a ranch in Sinaloa’s
rugged Sierra Madre mountains.
According to the federal government’s official statistics,
141 kidnappings were reported throughout Mexico over
Guzman’s escape using a 1.5km tunnel continues to the August-September period. This represents a 40%
embarrass President Enrique Peña Nieto. Footage reduction in the number of incidents compared to the
released in September purportedly showing prison guards number reported over the same period in 2014. However,
failing to respond to sounds of the tunnel’s construction this difference may be inaccurate given that federal
contributes to sentiments of distrust toward the statistics are often revised upwards at a later date, and the
government, raising questions as to whether Nieto’s majority of incidents continue to go unreported.
administration withheld information about the escape.
Crime
In September official statistics (reported by the Interior
Ministry) reported a 21% increase in the number of
homicides in Mexico City between January and August
compared to the previous year. If accurate, this means the
capital city has reported its highest homicide rate over the
same period since 1998, at the height of organised crime
in the region. Since 1998 the Federal District has avoided
much of the violence associated with organised crime
seen in other areas of the country. According to one
former city official, the rise in crime coincides with a 17%
increase in drug consumption over the past three years,
and is linked to both an increase in non-violent and
organised crime.
Extortion
Despite the steep decrease in the number of kidnappings,
over the same period 779 extortion incidents were
reported nationally, representing only a 7% reduction
compared to the previous year. On 19 October authorities
recovered a body hanging from a bridge in Mexico City’s
Iztapalapa district, believed to have been the victim of an
extortion attempt by organised criminals.
Outlook
Continued efforts to capture Guzman and other cartel
leaders may intensify should security forces move toward
more assertive action in place of intelligence-led
operations. Following the latest operation in October,
alienated local civilians (communities who provide
However, Mexico City officials have been quick to dispel essential information on cartel whereabouts) reported
rumours of increased organised crime in the city, insisting significant collateral damage.
any escalation would only be temporary. The head of the
district’s public security office, Hiram Almeida, claimed the Operations to dismantle the country’s drug cartels and
rise in homicides “is a temporary phenomenon, not a capture leadership figures is likely to result in their
trend”, but offered no further statistics or evidence.
fragmentation into smaller criminal groups, which often
turn to kidnapping and extortion to generate revenue in
Alarmingly, over this period there has been a rising replacement of more complex drug trafficking operations.
Latin America Quarterly – October 2015
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Colombia
The prospects of a peaceful resolution to the world’s
longest-running conflict greatly increased following an
agreement between the government and the FARC on
a transitional justice system.
Security
Kidnapping
Although the FARC's decision to abandon the use of
kidnapping to facilitate peace negotiations has pushed
down the number of cases, the threat of kidnap by urban
gangs or other irregular armed groups remains high. On
03 September the businessman and local government
adviser Ramon Jose Cabrales was kidnapped by the
National Liberation Army (ELN) in the city of Ocaña. The
liberation of Mr Cabrales, who remains missing, is a
precondition for the government before any peace
Since the FARC began its unilateral ceasefire on 20 July negotiations with the ELN can begin.
the violence associated with the conflict has decreased
considerably. According to the Conflict Analysis Resource On 08 September security forces launched an operation
Centre database, between 20 July and 13 October only to dismantle a kidnap gang operating in Bogota, whose
nine incidents of armed conflict were recorded between members claimed to be FARC fighters in order to
security forces and the FARC, and only seven attacks by intimidate their victims. In the operation a 22-year-old
FARC rebels registered – the lowest numbers since 1975. businessman was freed.
On 23 September President Juan Manuel Santos and the
leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC) agreed the framework of a transitional justice
system for punishing crimes committed during the conflict.
The transitional justice system represented the biggest
hurdle in negotiations to date. Additionally, both parties
agreed to set a six-month deadline to sign a final peace
accord evidencing the optimism on both sides.
Crime
Extortion
While the FARC decreases its illegal activity, criminal
gangs continue to expand their operations, creating a new
challenge for Colombian security forces. On 06 October
the National Police conducted a large-scale operation
against the Urabeños – one of most powerful criminal
groups in Colombia – detaining 147 of its members. In a
related development, two high-ranking drug lords, Martin
Farfan and Victor Romero Navarro, were killed in separate
operations conducted by national security forces in
September and October.
Although the number of extortion cases seems to have
dropped significantly, companies of all sizes remain
vulnerable to extortion attempts, particularly in rural
areas. On 31 August three farm owners were killed by an
extortionist in a rural area of Bogota after refusing to pay
fees.
FARC rebels continue to be one of the principal
perpetrators of extortion cases, with some recent
intelligence reports showing that mid-ranking members
have decided to increase their activity in order to
The reduction in the FARC’s criminal activity, combined augment financial gains before a final peace accord is
with the government’s achievements in tackling newer signed with the government.
criminal organisations, has pushed down crime rates
across the country. On 17 September the Ministry of Outlook
Defence presented crime statistics for the first six months
of 2015, which show a consistent fall in most categories Progress toward a final peace agreement with the FARC
when compared to the same period in 2014, including is likely to significantly improve the security situation
murder (-5%), kidnap (-46%) and extortion (-18%).
country-wide and the economic outlook. However, the
level of criminality will likely remain unchanged.
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4
Venezuela
Anti-smuggling offensive triggers diplomatic crisis with
Colombia, likely an attempt to divert public attention
from the country’s deepening economic woes.
Security
Kidnapping
On 19 August President Nicolas Maduro closed the border
with Colombia and declared a state of emergency in the
western state of Tachira following a confrontation between
security forces and Colombian smugglers. The decision
was followed by the deportation of more than 1,000
Colombian citizens living near the border for allegedly
smuggling Venezuelan price-regulated products. The
large-scale deportation sparked a diplomatic crisis
between the two countries, culminating in the recall of both
ambassadors.
During the first week of August it was reported that
Gilberto Correa, a well-known local TV host, was
kidnapped in Caracas. According to reports Mr Correa
was severely beaten during the incident, which lasted a
few hours and resulted in a relatively small ransom
payment, in-keeping with other express kidnappings.
Foreign nationals perceived to be wealthier than the local
populace continued to be targeted by criminal gangs. In
early August John Ralston Pate, an American lawyer
residing in the country for more than 40 years was stabbed
to death at his home in Caracas during a robbery, possibly
a botched kidnapping. While the government admits there
is a problem and policies have been put into place to
tackle the situation, corruption and inefficiency continue to
undermine significant progress.
Outlook
National security forces have increased efforts to reduce
the number of kidnappings in the country. On 04 August,
the military reported that 240 people were detained and
more than 60 groups dismantled this year for involvement
Smuggling and associated corruption among Venezuela’s in kidnap-related activities.
National Guard is a long-standing issue along the border.
However it has a relatively low impact on the shortage of Extortion
basic products, raising the prospect that the crisis was
instigated by the Venezuelan government in order to divert Traditionally extortion cases have been concentrated in
public attention from the country’s economic crisis in the border areas with Colombia, however the recent rise in
run-up to parliamentary elections in December this year.
criminality has exacerbated the threat in other areas of
the country, primarily in Caracas where small business
Crime
owners in particular have noted a rise in the number and
frequency of extortion attempts by local gangs.
Low public spending and rising poverty indicators underpin
a rise in criminality in Venezuela. As part of the latest According to government statistics, in addition to local
government security initiative, Operation for the Liberation gangs public security officers are the main perpetrators of
of the People (OLP), security forces conducted a large- extortion cases. Statistics provided by the Public
scale operation to crackdown on criminal groups across Prosecution Office and by military authorities show that
the country. Criminal gangs have responded aggressively, during the first six months of 2015 more than 400 people
with mainstream media reporting five grenade attacks were detained for involvement in extortion cases, 121 of
against police officers in a single week in September.
which were security officials.
Latin America Quarterly – October 2015
Amid an economic crisis, high levels of criminality and
political repression, the government’s public support has
plummeted to about 20%, increasing the possibility of an
opposition victory in December’s parliamentary elections.
The government will continue tackling criminal
organisations, however the reduction of criminality rates
in the short-term seems unlikely.
5
Brazil
Police killings continue to spark social unrest in Rio de
Janeiro’s poorer neighbourhoods and favelas, with
some protests turning violent.
Security
On 02 August a report released by Amnesty International
strongly criticised the ‘heavy-handed’ police tactics used in
Rio de Janeiro. In the report, the NGO included details of
excessive force used during security operations in the
city’s favelas, including extrajudicial killings and corrupt
methods to avoid scrutiny.
Such killings are often described by police as ‘resistance
killings’ and emphasise the police officer’s inherent right to
self defence. However, a video released on 01 October
purportedly showed police planting a weapon in the hands
of a 17-year-old alleged criminal they had killed in a
favela. The footage also appears to indicate the murdered
teenager was alive as police approached him, however no
medical assistance was attempted by the officers.
The popular Ipanema and Copacabana neighbourhoods
have reportedly seen a surge in opportunistic street crime,
with low-level street gangs stealing valuables from tourists.
In October amateur footage of such incidents was
broadcast highlighting the threat to tourists. One video
shows both criminals and police officers scrambling over
tourists on a beach; another shows a police officer
withdrawing his pistol after being pelted by balls of sand.
Kidnapping
Foreign nationals and business travellers remain at
moderate threat of kidnapping in Brazil. However, over the
past three months the focus of incidents has highlighted
the threat to certain elements of the country’s domestic
population, particularly during business disputes. On 05
October rival taxi drivers in São Paulo reportedly began
kidnapping, assaulting and demanding ‘payment’ from
Such incidents continue to spark social unrest in Rio de drivers using the controversial Uber service.
Janeiro’s poorer neighbourhoods. Some protests have
turned violent with angry locals torching public
Extortion
transportation and police vehicles.
Extortion cases continue to threaten businesses operating
in Brazil, particularly those in poorer neighbourhoods. In
August authorities shot and killed Celso Pinheiro Pimenta
On 17 September authorities arrested one of the world’s in Rio de Janeiro. Pimenta had escaped from prison
most wanted drug traffickers in the coastal city of Guaruja, earlier this year, and reportedly led a gang of 50 criminals
offering an often-overlooked insight into Brazil’s complex who operated a kidnap and extortion ring.
illicit drug trade. Mario Sergio “Goiano” Machado Nunes is
reportedly responsible for trafficking drugs to an estimated
Outlook
27 countries in Europe and Africa using maritime routes.
According to the authorities, during his lifetime Nunes had
Brazil’s Police Pacification Units (UPP) will continue to
formed alliances with Mexico’s “El Chapo” Guzman and
target Rio de Janeiro’s favelas with a view to improving
Colombia’s Pablo Escobar.
security ahead of the 2016 Olympic Games. However, the
recent increase in police-related extrajudicial killings has
However, the government remains focussed on tackling
sparked renewed public frustration with the police and
domestic crime, particularly in the build-up to the 2016
associated violence, compounded by the perception that
Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio de
police officers committing these acts face scant judicial
Janeiro. The city has seen a wave of criminality over the
oversight – an issue that needs to be addressed before
past three months, prompting city authorities to increase
any efforts can be made to address police brutality.
security at beaches and areas popular with foreign and
domestic tourists.
Crime
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6
Ecuador
Proposed amendments to the constitution will be
decided by President Correa’s fellow party members in
parliament, and will likely lead to further social unrest.
Security
taken advantage of Ecuador’s ‘progressive’ or lax drug
possession laws. These laws have never been popular
with the authorities, who feel the relaxed judicial system
means the arrest of individuals on drug-related offences is
not worthwhile. Given the government’s declining
popularity and approval ratings, it is possible the reforms
are an effort to appease the authorities. Public Defender
Ernesto Pazmiño admitted there is no evidence to suggest
the liberal drug laws have caused or encouraged crime.
Ecuador continues to see frequent political demonstrations
throughout the country. On 17 August thousands
demonstrated against constitutional amendments and
policy changes by the government. Protesters remain
critical of a string of political decisions by President Rafael
Correa that include expanding the country’s oil frontier,
increasing the number of mining projects (some of which
are on contested ‘indigenous’ lands or culturally important
lands), changes to water and education policy, new labour Kidnapping
laws and pensions, and a proposed Free Trade
Agreement with the EU.
The threat from kidnapping remains low to moderate for
foreign nationals and business travellers throughout
Over the past three months indigenous people from the Ecuador, but the risk does increase further north toward
Zamora Chinchipe province in the Amazon marched the Colombian border. Paramilitary groups involved in
against the expansion of industrialised zones, walking kidnapping are known to operate in the region’s border
from their traditional territories to Quito. Additionally, areas, and contributed to the governments decision to
thousands gathered in Quito on 10 August to demonstrate follow Venezuela’s lead and implement more stringent
against the government’s decision to proceed with policy border controls at the beginning of September.
changes despite earlier protests. The reaction by the
authorities has been heavily criticised, as it involved the Extortion
widespread deployment of military and riot police. The
authorities reportedly used batons and tear gas to break- As with kidnapping, the threat from extortion remains
up demonstrations, making arbitrary arrests and raiding higher in the north of the country due to the presence of
homes of those accused of leading protests.
transnational organised criminal groups. Such groups may
increasingly turn to extorting businesses to generate
On 15 August the government declared a ‘State of revenue, should the new tougher penalties begin to
Emergency’ after unusually high volcanic activity at the dissuade criminals from trafficking drugs.
Cotopaxi. The declaration allows the government to
deploy the military, raising suspicion (given the timing and Outlook
previous inaction over volcanic activity) that the
government acted in order to facilitate a stronger response The government’s proposed amendments to the
to the country’s continued protests.
constitution would allow President Correa to be re-elected
Crime
Crime remains a severe problem in Ecuador where
historically low rates of apprehension and conviction of
criminals is exacerbated by limited police and judicial
resources. In early October Congress approved harsher
penalties for minor drug traffickers, who had previously
Latin America Quarterly – October 2015
indefinitely when his current term finishes in 2017. On 31
October the country’s Constitutional Court announced that
the amendments would be made by politicians in the
National Assembly, not by a public referendum. This is
likely to encourage further civil unrest given that Correa’s
party currently hold a majority in the National Assembly
and are therefore able to pass the amendments, despite
an estimated 73% of Ecuadorians opposing the changes.
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