contents - Geneva Association

9
August 1990
nn9/ August90
CONTENTS
page
EDITORIAL
1
CONCLUSIONS OF MAJOR CONFERENCES ON
RISK MANAGEMENT
2
Meeting "Catastrophes and Society"
Wharton School Conference on Minimizing Environmental Damage
MAPFRE
MISCELLANEOUS INFORMATION
4
ARTICLES AND PAPERS RECEIVED
8
BOOKS AND PUBLICATIONS RECEIVED
11
CONFERENCES.
July -Dec 1990 and 91
14
CONFERENCES
January - June 1990
16
NEW RESEARCH PROGRAMMES ON RISK
MANAGEMENT ISSUES
18
UNIVERSITY COURSES ON RISK ISSUES
19
REFERENCES TO OTHER NEWSLETTERS ON
RISK MANAGEMENT ISSUES
20
CONFERENCES SPONSORED BY THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION
September 1990 to 1992
23
SUMMARY OF THE M.O.R.E.-PROGRAMME (Management of
Risks in Engineering) OF THE GENEVA ASSOCIATION
24
Geneva, August 20, 1990
- 1 -
EDITORIAL
In the past, the Risk Management Bulletin has mainly reflected events and conferences related to product liability and risk management issues linked to production, transport and hazardous waste. With the increasing importance of services, including service liability, as reflected e.g. in the Draft Directive on Service
liability by the Commission of the EC, we shall in the future give more space to
risk management issues linked to services.
Service liability, as interpreted by the Courts, is already today in many ways
as strict, if not stricter, than product liability. Witnesses the following examples:
A German tourist had booked a package tour to Turkey. In order to catch
his flight back, he had to be at the airport at 7 am. The evening before
departure, he asked the hotel reception to wake him up next morning; the
reception duly forgot to do so. He had to buy a full fare ticket back and
asked to be refunded by the tour organizer, a German company, which
refused. The Landgericht Niirnberg-Fiirth supported the claim of the
tourist, as wake-up calls are part of the general services of a hotel (Az: 11 S
3814/89).
The Federal Court of Brisbane, the capital of Queensland, has condemned a
branch of the Westpac Bank to pay damages in the amount of 556'275 A$ to
a client. The bank was found guilty of havin~ acted negligently in advising
the client to take out a "cheaper" loan (lower mterest rates) in a forei~n currency; after the collapse of the Australian Dollar, the client found hIS debt
had nearly doubled.
UK banks, rather than their clients, have to pay for losses resulting from
speculations on behalf of local councils. The House of Lords ruled on Nov 1,
89, that the councils had no authority to speculate with public funds and the
banks should have known this.
The Swiss Federal Court has decided that a company renting holiday apartments carries a "success liability". If the information m the brochures is false
or misleading, the clients have a right of reimbursement.
Airlines have a duty of transport. If passengers miss the last plane to their
final destination, airlines have to pay the train or taxi fare to get the passengers to their final destination (Profitravel magazine).
The subject of Liability for Defective Services as such is not really new; a report
of that title by Derrick Owles and Hugh Cockerill was already published in 1985
by the Financial Times Business Information. New however is the scope of services covered: besides traditional services (doctors and lawyers, brokers and consultants), the new Draft Directive includes all services, including repairs, travel
arrangements, banking, etc..
The discussion of strict liability often neglects another crucial liability issue,
for which their is little insurance cover today: The loss of consumer confidence!
The latest example for this is Perrier: sales of its famous fizzy water are down
60% after its contamination scare earlier this year. (The Economist, July 7,90; p.
61).
Another new feature of the Bulletin is the MISCELLANEOUS INFORMATION, which give examples of major risks or recent disasters that could be, or
have been, avoided by standard Risk Management methods. The aim of this section is to show that risk management education and training is a never ending
task, and that loss prevention is almost always cheaper than cure.
- 2 CONCLUSIONS OF MAJOR CONFERENCES ON RISK MANAGEMENT
Fundacion MAPFRE sponsored an International Meeting "Catastrophes and
Society", within its Programme "Meetings for a Responsible Society".
In this Meeting, held in Madrid on October 24-26, 1989, 200 people from 25
countries listened to 12 lectures, as well as 45 papers, by representatives of public, national and international agencies, universities and research centers, companies, insurance entities and safety experts among others. Walter R. Stahel,
. deputy secretary general of the Geneva Association, presented a paper on
"Catastrophic Risk Insurability; Risk Prevention, System Complexity and System
Design in the context of natural disasters".
During the three days, a wide spectrum of topics were discussed, among
which the scientific and technical aspects of natural phenomena, their analysis
and prevention, organization management against natural disasters, participation
problems of different sectors in fighting against catastrophes, and social and economic aspects of these. Lectures and papers were completed by active discussions with the participants, leading to a better definition of various thesis and to
conclusions on these topics:
"The following basic priorities are suggested to the institutions and organizations involved in
assisting with the economic and social aspects of catastrophes:
1.
To look for an integral solution which considers both preventing the causes of disasters
and mitigat their effects, as well as coping with the emergency situation. This solution
should consider, in a related and coordinated way, both the public and private sectors
at the four levels: local, regional, national and international.
2.
To learn, in a continuous way, about the latent risks and the dynamics of their growth,
as well as to determine measures for their reduction and achieve knowledge of the
necessary technologies to face emergency situations.
3.
To foresee the effective implementation of the various measures in a harmonious, adhoc and coordinated way, with the settlement of plans and programs of anticipated
actions.
4.
To guarantee the development of plans and programs by means of an organizational
structure of disaster management which gathers together the various organizations
determining their faculties and responsibilities as well as their coordination systems.
5.
To strengthen legal support for disaster management by extending and refIning
relevant legislation.
6.
To consolidate human resources enabling them to face disasters with a permanent and
diversilled formative process, which takes into account education as well as
preparation and training at the workplace.
7.
To secure the collaboration and support of the population through continuous physical
and mental education programmes on disasters, using existing mechanisms in the various sectors.
8.
To give impetus to and promote the active collaboration of the private sector in order
to prevent and attend to emergency situations by means of the establishment and
coordination of technical rules and fmancial incentives.
9.
To promote the participation of volunteers, and of the community at large by supporting organizations and spreading self-protection and fIrst-aid measures.
10.
To utilize the opportunities for world cooperation in research, dissemination of knowhow and exchange of knowledge and technologies, and to implement mutually
supportive actions through bilateral agreements, especially within the framework of
the International Decade for Natural Hazards Reduction (IDNHR).
- 3 The following general appeals also resulted from the discussion:
1.
National Governments are asked to improve, or establish, preventive emergencyattention systems, and to reinforce relevant legislation as well as to monitor its observance.
2.
Greater collaboration as well as mutual support between public institutions and Nongovernmental Organizations is called for with regard to disaster management tasks, in
accordance with their social or political aims.
3.
Educational institutions and research centers are asked to:
promote studies on natural risk analysis, technology development, procedures for
risk reduction and relief in emergencies,
revise their education plans in order to enhance public awareness as a preventive
measure.
4.
All organization and institutions are encouraged to circulate systematically their publications and documents on these subjects in order to promote the availability of
updated information at an international level.
5.
The insurance sector is required to develop a policy and strategy for the adaptation of
these mechanisms to each type of risk, with the aim of achieving a greater promotion
of measures to prevent natural phenomena with catastrophic consequences as well as
their economic compensation.
6.
Fiscal authorities are asked to treat more favourably funds constituted by private and
public insurance organizations for the compensation of the economic consequences of
natural disasters, in view of the long recurrence periods of these phenomena.
7.
International Organizations are requested to promote the standardization of the
terminology used in the field of natural catastrophes in the different languages, in
order to achieve a better understanding between the institutions concerned and a
uniform and coherent regulation.
8.
International Organizations are requested to implement better mechanisms for the
distribution of funds provided by institutions and governments, seeking more efficient
and guaranteed preestablished formulas.
9.
Developed Countries are requested to re-think their support to Less Developed
Countries with high natural disasters risk, by increasing the education and prevention
measures instead of the usual aid actions after each disaster.
10.
Related to the IDNHR, promoting institutions are requested to achieve the maximum
diversification and coordination between the public and private organizations involved,
of an institutional or associational character, without limitations for exclusivities in
favour of official or political means."
**********
On May 29-31, 1990, the Wharton Risk and Decision Process Center of the University of Pennsylvania and the Environmental Associates of the Academy of
Natural Sciences co-sponsored a conference on "Minimizing Environmental
Damage: Strategies for Managing Hazardous Waste". The 75 participants at the
conference presented various segments of society concerned with hazardous
waste issues: environmentalists, representatives of government and industry, insurers, lawyers and scientists at uruversities, environmental consulting firms, and
other institutions. Walter R. Stahel represented the Geneva Association at this
meeting.
The diversity of the experts attending reflected in intense, provocative, and
heated discussions of the prepared papers, which covered the following topics
designed to develop a strategy for managing hazardous wastes:
risk assessment
technology and innovation
public perception
managing past, present, and future wastes
legislative and implementation issues
- 4 -
The conference identified areas of agreement and disagreement over both facts
and values in hazardous waste management. Genuine differences exist among
peoples' deeply held values which affect their interpretation of "risk". Acknowledging these differences is the first step towards achieving a consensus on policies for managing hazardous wastes
The conference highlighted some major unresolved issues in the management of hazardous wastes:
1.
Technical facts. Technical facts which underlie environmental problems should be correctly understood in evaluating risk. They can greatly influence the assessment of true
and perceived risk. There is a need to work toward a scientific consensus on risk evaluation and how it should be incorporated in the policy-making process.
2.
Liability. Are current hazardous waste policies unfair to one type of industry or to different size companies? Are the policies fair in their assessment of fIrms' liabilities for
past, present and future hazardous waste? Do the policies create new problems? For
example, if a policy induces fIrms not to use existing sites in order to avoid liabilities, it
may simply drive industry to operate facilities on land that the public may prefer to see
used for alternative purposes.
3.
Who should fIx the problems: regulators and/or legislators? Which of these two
groups is likely to be more effective, more timely with solutions, more predictable to
deal with? How can they work together better to develop waste management strategies?
4.
Waste minimization. What exactly to we mean by this term? Once we have defmed it,
how do we measure it? Do policies that encourage safer handling of waste, such as incineration, reduce fIrms' incentives to minimize waste?
5.
Innovation and technology. What is the cost of developing new products and technologies that minimize hazardous wastes? Do current policies encourage development of
new products and processes? Would changes in liability laws help? How can universities work more closely with industry and also train engineers to design products and
processes that minimize waste?
All participants agreed that there is a need to involve all the interested parties in the policy-making
process. Both government and industry have to do a better job of communicating and defming
issues for the public. The public perceives hazardous waste differently from experts because people
are concerned with issues that are broader than simply assessing risks. Moreover, in weighing decisions about dealing with hazardous waste or other environmental issues, the public maintains a
healthy skepticism about "what the experts say." In fact, experts don't always agree on defmitions or
measurements of hazardous wastes, nor on appropriate remedies. Therefore, it is very diffIcult for
the public to judge the relative hazards of wastes.
For example, people are concerned with cleaning up the environment even if some of the
waste sites do not pose much of a danger to human health. This issue calls for a consideration of
the larger ecological impacts of hazardous wastes; for example, the impact of such wastes on both
human health, other species and the environment.
To address the concerns of the public as well as all other interested parties, we require continued research into these issues. We need to be more specific about what we know and what we
don't know. But having more information is only part of the solution. We must fmd a way to communicate this information intelligibly to the public, so that people can understand the trade-offs
they are facing in making choices between different waste management strategies.
NUSCELLANEOUSINFORMATION
(TASSjdpa, July 16): In the first semester of 1990, several breaks on major oil
and gas pipelines and 1'132 breaks on minor pipelines have occurred in the district of Tjumen alone. In one case, due to corrosion, 400 t of oil have been
leaked; in another, 21m cubic meters of gas have escaped. Consequential losses
are substantial, including loss of income for a volume of 300'000 t of oil and
100m m3 of gas. Repairs are slowed by the fact that some of the sites in Siberia
are only accessible by helicopter.
- 5 -
(apa/dpa/afp, July 18) Six days after the near-collapse of a motorway bridge in
the Inntal in Austria, interrupting one of the main North-South roads in Europe,
reproaches have been made that the Austrian authorities in charge disregarded
clear warnings that such a disaster might occur. The Ministry of Agriculture is
now looking for a letter by the ·Ministry of Economy, sent in 1988, in which these
warnings were stated and the consequences of such an event highlighted. It is
assumed that the information was treated lightly at the time.
(June 29) The Hubble space telescope, a miracle of modern technology launched
during one of the recent space shuttle missions, has been found to incorporate
manufacturing faults in its mirrors. The mirrors, with a diameter of 2,4 m, do not
focus the images as they should. This could make the most expensive satellite
ever also the most expensive mistake, and emphasizes the need for controlling
the functioning of complex systems before their commissioning and during
operation.
(ap, May 19) Despite police barriers across a four lane motorway, to protect the
site of a accident, and several police cars and fire engines further down the
motorway, the driver of a Mercedes 560 driving at high speed crashed into the
accident site. The car displaced one police car by 54 meters, pushed a fire engine
aside and was only stopped by the second truck. The cars, one truck and the
motorway surface caught fire immediately. More than a dozen policemen and
firemen as well as the injured trapped in the vehicles from the first accident narrowly escaped death thanks to the fact that the second fire engine was still operational. The cause of the accident was the fact that the driver had been busy on
his car phone. The accident happened on a straight and level part of the motorway, visibility was normal.
(CRI, April) The number of computer crime cases registered by the national
bureau of investigation CRI in the Netherlands has almost doubled from 38 in
1988 to 72 in 1989, including 11 cases of computer virus attacks (up from 0) and
nine of hacking (up from 4). Computer fraud is also a growth sector: 15 cases. An
interesting theme is that of computer-aided "shadow administration" of enterprises to avoid taxes. CRI says that various computer programmes of this kind
have been developed. Hacking and other forms of "computer terrorism" are so
far mainly a matter of hobbyists and small-time criminals. But CRI says there is
evidence that criminal abuse of information systems is being practised in an
organized manner. (CRI acts as the Dutch bureau of Interpol, phone 0703769911).
(NZZ, April 18) With regard to the safety of road vehicles, the question is raised
about the difference in Safety Tests between the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S. a
standardized test is done for almost all new vehicles by the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration, which gives the consumer a very good comparison
between different cars and models. In Europe, each manufacturer probably does
similar tests, but these remain "confidential", Le. inaccessible to the consumer.
Another point raised in the article is the question why the "high mounted stoplights", Le. the third brake light, is illegal in Switzerland and has to be taken off
to make a car roadworthy.
(In this context, it may be useful to recall that catalytic converters on cars were illegal in Switzerland, due to the inherent danger of setting forests on fire, until the very
day they became mandatory).
- 6 -
(The Economist, March 3) Toxic tales, in the first prosecution of its kind, Shell
UK was fined £lm for polluting a 20-mile stretch of the Mersey estuary with 156
tons of crude oil from a fractured pipeline.
(CER, March) About 500 ships cross the Channel every day in both directions.
The safety of this dense traffic is guaranteed by a futuristic control center situated on the cliffs of Dover: The Channel Navigation Information Service. The
main role of this coastguard station is to issue bulletins, every 15 or 30 minutes,
to inform passing ships and to supervise the two separate navigation channels.
Ships with dangerous goods have to identify themselves, all other ships have the
right of "innocent passage". Since the commissioning of this control station, the
number of collisions in the channel has been reduced from 30-40 a year in the
'60s to 3-4 today. In case of an accident, the station serves as a control and
command centre between e.g. the oil-fighting brigade stationed in Coventry,
equipped with DC-3 aircraft on stand-by 24 hours a day, the rescue teams and
the supporting services.
(NZZ, March) The Air Transport Association of America (ATA) has published
for the first time recommendations on modifications to "old" jet airliners. This
joint venture between manufacturers and the fleet managers (airlines) is
designed to ensure that elder jets still conform to modern airworthiness
standards. Recommendations range from changing rivets to changing complete
components of hull structure. According to Boeing, these modifications will cost
approx. 60'000 $ per aircraft. Of the 7'200 jets in service today, half have been in
service for over 12 years, and 1'000 for over 20 years. Despite this age structure
(Le. compared to cars), structural failure accounts only for about 3% of total
losses in aircraft accidents.
(ProfitraveI2/90) Vorsicht, FaIle: Autofahren in der DDR. The mass appearance
of "safer and faster" West German cars on the East German motorways, with a
speed limit of 100 kID/h, has led to a new industry. According to East German
police, traffic accidents have increased in February 90, compared to Feb 89, by
800%. Main reason: speeding. 25% of speeding tickets and 10% of all fines in
the GDR are paid by West German drivers. In the meantime, 250 modern radar
speed traps have been installed to check speeding drivers.
(Argus, Feb 2) Creation d'un institut des sciences du danger: Les grandes catastrophes ont fait naitre une nouvelle discipline: les sciences du danger ou cindyniques. L'institut europeen de cindyniques est ne Ie 8 janvier 1990 a Paris et
reunit les specialistes de tous horizons: Aerospatiale, CEA, CERCHAR, CNPP,
DGAC, FNB, INRS, ministere de la sante, ecoles polytechniques, SNPE, UAP,
etc. L'objet de l'institut ne se limite pas a l'etude des risques spectaculaires. Les
accidents domestiques, automobiles ou sportifs occupent une place importante
dans les preoccupations des membres de l'institut. Adresse: 47 rue de
l'Universite, F-75007 Paris, tel. 01-34787973.
(Time, Jan 29) Ghost in the machine, the nine-hour breakdown of AT&Ts longdistance telephone network dramatizes the vulnerability of complex computer
systems everywhere (and raises new liability questions for services).
- 7 -
(Computerworld Schweiz, Jan 29) Wer ist fur unbeabsichtigte Datenverluste verantwortlich? Jeder Anwender steht mit einem Bein im Gefangnis. Zusammenfassung dreier kiirzlicher Gerichtsurteile in den USA.
(New Scientist, Jan 27,90) Prof Abdus Salam, Founder-Director of the Int'l Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste 25 years ago, has suggested creating
a new centre for the Third World with three components:
one devoted to earth and environmental sciences, particularly earthquake prediction and climate,
a second for chemistry to research into industrially important areas,
such as catalysis, polymers and drugs,
and a third for high technology and new materials, including superconductors.
ICTP today also includes the Int'l Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, divided between Trieste and New Delhi.
(.) Reusable satellites. After several recent failures of satellites to achieve their
required orbits, early April should see the culmination of the first satellite rescue
mission. Asiasat 1 is due to be put back in to orbit on a Chinese Long March 3
launcher from Xichang on April 7. The Indonesian satellite Palapa B2-R follows
it up on April 9 on a Delta launcher. Six years ago, when Asiastar was called
Westar 6 and the Indonesian satellite Palapa B2, both satellites were circling the
earth in a useless low orbit. They had failed to reach a geosynchronous orbit
after being launched on the space shuttle Challenger on Feb 3, 1984. Insurers
paid out US$ 105m for Westar 6 and $ 75 for Palapa B2 but did not leave the
matter there. The satellites were recovered by another space shuttle mission on
Nov 8, 1984. After being refurbished by the original manufacturer - Hughes Westar was sold to the Hongkong based Asiasat consortium, while Palapa 2 was
sold back to. the Indonesians.
(Spiegel, 45/89) Even before the new B-2 stealth bomber has been commissioned, some Australian experts have designed a radar system that can detect the
"invisible" aircraft. The Australian Jindalee-Radar no longer identifies aircraft,
but the turbulences which are typically found behind aircraft. Due to its special
shape, the anti-aerodynamic stealth bomber produces more turbulences than
normal aircraft and can thus be easily spotted.
(dpa, Nov 21, 89) Storm winds have caused havoc in the region of New York.
Aircraft were lifted by the winds: at the airport of Newark, a parked Boeing 727
was moved 30 meters, landing on top of a tanker lorry; at JFK airport, parked
Boeing 747 Jumbos moved across the tarmac, one hitting a hangar, another one
finished its trip in the airport fence.
(ap, Nov 29, 89) Leaking tanker will have to wait. The Greek tanker "Milos
Reefer" that run aground in the Bering Strait can only be salvaged in Spring 90,
for safety reasons. The vessel has lost 897'000 liters of oil so far; according to the
Ministry for the Environment of Alaska, the oil has already reached the shore.
The tanker ran aground inside the natural conservation area of the St. Mathews
Islands, with a cargo of 500'000 liters of oil.
(sda, Oct 4, 89) A Dutch lorry coming from Italy, laden with fridges, caught tire
on the Gotthard motorway, shortly after passing through one of the major
- 8 -
tunnels. The Belgian driver managed to stop the vehicle and escaped without
injury. The burning lorry, because of burning liquids that escaped into the sewer
pipes, set fire to the viaduct on which it was standing. Damage is estimated to
amount to more than a million Swiss Francs; the damage to the viaduct, the
longest of its kind in Switzerland, cannot be estimated yet as part of it may have
to be rebuilt.
(sda, Sep 14,89) More than a year after a railroad accident, pumps still produce
100 liters of kerosene per month in the railway station at Au, Switzerland. 8'500
cubic meters of polluted soil had already been removed earlier, at a cost of more
than 3m Swiss Francs.
(Reuter, Sep 5, 89) In Autumn 1989, a computer belonging to the Paris town
authorities sent 41'000 letters to Paris citizens, accusing them of criminal
offences including homicide. In fact, the charge should have been wrongful
parking.
(rg, Sep 5) After the introduction of general speed limits on Italians motorways
beginning of 1989, accidents have decreased over the period of July 1 to Aug 31,
1989, compared with the same period in 1988, by 16.2%, the number of people
killed in accidents by 18,4%, the number of injured by 23,2%. Over the same
period, the traffic volume has increased by 8,2%. The police has also noted
improved behaviour of drivers, resulting in 38.6% less convictions for speeding.
(afp, July 2, 89) Thousands of documents linked to the "EXXON Valdez" accident were distroyed end of June by EXXON staff in a routine operation of
clearing computers of documents that are more than a month old. The technicians were not aware of the type of documents they were deleting (among others
documents on the communications between EXXON and EXXON shipping).
(sda, June 27, 89) 270 tons of toxic waste containing mercury, resulting from the
Sandoz warehouse fire in 1986, will be transported to and deposited at a dump in
Herfa-Neurode (Hessen, FRG). 25'000 tons of polluted soil (10'000 cubic
meters) will be cleaned on site in Schweizerhalle, using a novel floatation
process. The cost of this operation is estimated at 35m SFR, over a period of two
years.
ARTICLES AND PAPERS RECEIVED
Whitch's brew at Hanford, in The Economist, June 2, 1990, pAS.
"Something nasty is cooking in Hanford. In recent months, the Department
of Energy has revealed that as many as 42 of the 117 underground storage
tanks that are used to hold waste from bomb production at the Hanford
Nuclear Reservation could explode. If one of these tanks were to selfdestruct, it could mean the spread of deadly chemicals and radioactive
materials over hundreds of square miles." The article goes on to describe the
procedures followed in depositing the wastes, and later consolidating them,
creating in the process potential time-bombs, each capable of causing an
explosion equal to 36 tons of TNT. While chances of an explosion are
remote, nobody has ruled it out. The explosion of a nuclear-waste tank in
the Soviet Union in 1957 spread intense radiation over an area the size of
- 9 -
Rhode Island and forced the evacuation of 10'000 people in the Ural mountains. Soviet official have admitted that hundreds of people later died. Hanford officials claim that there are no parallels. The article also talks about a
proposed $1 billion waste vitrification plant, a $50 billion clean-up project
over the next 30 years and health problems of the 14'000 employees at the
Hanford plant.
A competitive environment? in European Insurance Strategies, issue no. 17 - Feb
1990, translated from a report compiled by SCOR "La Pollution", issued as part
of the series "SCOR notes" in Dec 1989.
An article on the ongoing OECD work to define environmental impairment
liability, accidental and gradual pollution, with reference to the origin of the
accident or its manifestation. The article also looks into the option of insurance pools for insuring pollution risks, and why this idea has been slow to
catch on.
Developments in the FRG in liability and insurance for environmental damage,
Policy considerations for insurers engaging in environmental liability insurance,
Dr Werner Pfennigstorf, Stade/FRG, Conference on the Insurance of Environmental Damage, Gent, Dec 14-15, 1989.
Europe sets its sights on tougher waste controls, New Scientist, Sep. 9, 1989;
The EC commission will propose codes of practice for different methods of
disposal between 1990 and 1994. Officials plan to impose tougher restrictions in 1990 on the operation and closure of waste dumps. The UN treaty
on hazardous waste signed in 1989 implies that countries must take responsibility for illegal dumps whose owners are bankrupt.
European Management Attitudes to Environmental Issues, an eight country survey (March 1990), by the environmental consultants of Touche Ross Europe Services, 27 avo des Arts, B-1040 Bruxelles;
Green Issues are now on most European Firms' Agenda. But while most
European companies claim that the environment concerns them and they
would like to keep ahead of the environmental legislation, others are more
concerned with regulatory requirements and their public image on
environmental issues. The study presents information on corporate perceptions of the impact of future legislation, both domestic and from the Ee.
Some interesting differences in attitudes can be seen from country to country, such as:
the impact of "Green consumers" appears greatest in West Germany and least in France;
board level involvement in environmental issues is much less evident in France and the UK than in other Member States;
a number of UK firms claim that their activities have no impact
whatever on the environment, while all firms in other Member
States recognize some environmental impact.
How to rob a bank. Bank robbers get smart, EUROtec, The Technology Journal
of the Financial Markets, March 1990, p.54ff.
Le coot de l'indemnisation des tiers victimes de la pollution accidentelle en
France. Le cout global des indemnisation versees aux tiers du fait de pollution accidentelle dans des installations fixes en France n'atteint pas 140
- 10 -
MFF par an en moyenne. Reparti entre 10'000 installations potentiellement
polluantes, ce COllt est inferieur en moyenne a 14'000 FF par an et par
installation;
Pour une indemnisation garantie des victimes de pollution accidentelle.
L'indemnisation des tiers' victimes de la pollution accidentelle peut etre
garantie par un systeme de fonds prive finance par l'industrie dont Ie COllt
moyen serait tres peu important. Cette solution complementaire a
l'assurance me requiert aucun bouleversement des regimes de responsabilites et d'assurance. Elle suscite des critiques et des reticences malgre ses
avantages sous l'angle des relations publiques ou de l'economie.
Prof. Henri Smets, Direction de l'Environnement, OECD, Paris; Colloque international sur l'assurance des dommages causes par la pollution, Rijksuniveristeit
Gent, Dec 14-15, Gent, Belgique.
NachHissigkeit und Unkenntnis beim Transport gefahrlicher Gilter, Neue
Zurcher Zeitung, no. 131, 9/10 Juni 1990;
The number of transits of dangerous goods through the Gotthard motorway
and rail tunnels is causing increasing concern in the regions concerned, Uri
and Tessin. Recent police checks have shown that 12 to 14% of the road
vehicles or the goods transported do not correspond to existing legislation;
about 60% of these vehicles have come from abroad and thus passed the
border under false declarations. The weekly transits of vinylchlorid, a highly
explosive and cancerogeneous substance, are regarded as the tip of the
iceberg. As the emergency services are not equipped do deal with many of
the substances, or even to identify them rapidly, prevention may in some
cases (such as vinylchlorid) be the only effective risk management measure.
It can be expected that the Swiss government will take steps to limit the
risks of transporting hazardous goods through the Gotthard tunnels in the
near future.
The Increasing Threat of Technological Disasters; and: Disaster Research, Why
it Can't Wait; in Disaster Preparedness in the Americas, issue no. 40, Oct. 1989.
The Challenge of man-made disasters, Dr Werner Pfennigstorf, Stade /FRG,
lunchtime talk to the British Insurance Law Association, Nov. 24, 1989.
Fraud exposed in Kenya's insurance industry, New African London (1989) Nr.
261, June, p. 30-31;
The car insurance pool of Kenya has suffered losses of approx. 11m $
through claims for fictitious accidents; the police suspects that a similar
fraud scheme operates in the area of health insurance.
Le transport dans Ie circle du risk management, L'Argus Paris, Dec 1, 1989, p.
3134 ff.
The Electronic Nightmare, International Management, Sep 1989, p. 39-43.
Solar storms halt stock market as computers crash, New Scientist, Sep 9, 1989,
p.35.
Reimbursement of Environmental Damage in Finland, by Jyri Heinonen, Risk
Management Ltd, The Sampo Group, Turku/SF.
- 11 -
Gadgets help detect damage to cargo, Business Insurance, April 3, 1989, pAl.
Risk management and insurance, by Wolf-Rudiger Heilmann; Forensic Engineering, Vol 2, nos. 1/2, Pergamon Press.
Risk Prevention and System Design: the Role of the Engineer and the Role of
Insurance in Risk Management; Forensic Engineering, Vol 2, nos. 1/2, Pergamon Press.
BOOKS AND PUBLICATIONS
Bartelmus, Peter (1989) Sustainable Development, a conceptual framework,
United Nations Working Paper 13, Dept of Int'l economic and social affairs; UN,
New York.
Bayerische Ruck (1990) Schadenverhiitung im Strassenverkehr - tun wir genug?
Expertengespdich 10 vom 8. Dezember 1989; Bayerische Ruckversicherung AG,
Sederanger 4-6, Tucherpark, D-8000 Miinchen 22.
In 1989, 400'000 people were killed on the streets of our planet; in the FRG alone they numbered 8'000. More than 450'000 people were injured in traffic accidents in 1989 in West Germany; 200'000 accidents occured, one every 23 seconds. Can we do more to prevent accidents?
Beratungsstelle fUr Brandverhutung (1990) Broschiire zum Thema Brandstiftung
(Arson), herausgegeben von der Beratungsstelle fUr Brandverhutung (BFB),
Postfach, CH-3001 Bern.
The cost of arson to the Swiss economy is more than hundred m SFR a year, or about 20% of
all ftre damages. This new publication was written in collaboration with the Swiss police and
the ftreftghting authorities; it is available free of charge.
Chicken, John C. and Hayns, Michael R. (1989) The Risk Ranking Technique in
Decision Making, Pergamon Press, Oxford.
Commission of the EC, DG for Science, Research and Development (1989)
Research Programme in the field of Major technological Hazards, 1986-1990:
Information on research contracts; CEE, 200 rue de la Loi, B-1049 Bruxelles.
Cooper, M.G. (ed.) (1985) RISK, man-made hazards to man, Clarendon Press,
Oxford.
Crescenzo-d'Auriac, Marie-Beatrix (1989) Les Risques catastrophiques, Evenements naturels, politiques et technologiques; L'Argus, F-75009 Paris.
Dungworth, Terry (1989) Product Liability and the Business Sector: Litigation
Trends in Federal Courts, The Institute for Civil Justice, The RAND Corp., 1700
Main St, Santa Monica, CA 90406-2138.
This report, the ftrst comprehensive analysis of product cases in the federal courts, is part of a
new 10 programme of research aimed at understanding the economic effects of the liability
system. The report is a factual summary of federal litigation trend between 1974 and 1986. It
addresses two main questions: fmt, what has been happening to the volume of federallitigation relating to products, and second, how many companies and industries have been involved.
- 12 -
Finsinger, Jorg (1989) Liability and the Incentives for Innovation, Arbeitsbericht .
Nr. 64, ISSN 0176-7275, UniversWit Liineburg.
GAGAK 0 Der Versicherungsvertrag der Kernkraftwerk Gosgen AG, Argumente und Informationen zur Atomenergie; GAGAK, Postfach 66, CH-4123
Allschwil.
Ginn, Ron (1990) Continuity Planning: Prevention, Surviving and Recovering
from Disaster, Elsevier Advanced Technology, Oxford.
Goldsmith, E. and Hildyard, N. (1989) The Social and Environmental Effects of
Large Dams, Volume 2: Case Studies, Wadebridge Ecological Centre, UK.
Health and Safety Executive (1989):
Quantified risk assessment: its input to decision making;
The tolerability of risk from unclean power stations;
Risk criteria for land-use planning in the vicinity of major industrial hazards;
HMSO, London.
Knoepfel, Peter (ed.) (1989) Risiko und Risikomanagement, herausgegeben im
Auftrag der Schweizerischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft flir Umweltforschung
SAGUF, Verlag Helbing & Lichtenhahn AG, Basel.
Kumeuther, Howard and Gowda, M.V. Rajeev (eds.) (1989) Integrating Insurance and Risk Management for Hazardous Waste, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Boston/USA.
Proceedings of the conference on "Risk Assessment and Risk Management Strategies for
Hazardous Waste and Disposal Problems", held at the Wharton School of the University of
Philadelphia on May 18-19,1988.
Laufer, Romain (.) L'entreprise face aux risques majeurs,
ler volume: problematique
2e volume: Ie management du risque majeur
3e volume: etudes de cas
Ministere de l'Environnement, groupe de prospective et delegation
de vie, Paris/France.
a la qualite
Malley, John C., Arnold, Vanessa D. and Whorton, Robert L. (1988) Organizational Communication: a Disaster for Challenger, Arkansas Business and Economic Review, Vol 21, Nr. 2.
This is not an extensively researched exploration of the Challenger disaster on Jan 28, 1986.
But there is no denying that it is well suited to the authors' purpose: to prescribe better practices for training technical people to communicate with each other and to advocate the use of
management information systems to disseminate the needed information. Their points apply
to all technical and engineering projects. And because the Challenger explosion was such a
dramatic and disastrous event, its power to bring home these points is great.
MAPFRE and ITSEMAP (1989) Lectures and Papers of the International
Meeting "Catastrophes and Society", ITSEMAP, Paseo de Recoletos 25, E-28004
Madrid/Spain.
McLeod, Mike (1990) Planning for Disaster Recovery, IBC Financial Publishing,
57 Mortimer St, London WIN TID, UK
- 13 -
Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (1990) Energiesysteme heute und
morgen, Munich Re, D-8000 Munchen IFRG.
OECD (1989) Compendium 89, Chapter 10: Risks; OECD Paris.
Statistics on major floods and related losses, major natural disasters of geological origin,
major climatic and meteorological disasters, accidental oil spills from tankers, selected
industrial accidents of environmental significance.
OECD, Technical Engineering Services, May 1990, OECD Paris, 123 p.
OECD, Behavioural Adaptations to Changes in the Road Transport System,
June 1990, OECD Paris, 123 p.
Proceedings of the Third Int'l Conference on Structural Failure, Product Liability and Technical Insurance, held in Vienna July 1989; published in "Forensic
Engineering", Vol 2, No 1/2, 1990; Pergamon Press N.Y.
Commercial Liability Insurance Manual,
Commercial Property Insurance Manual,
Manual of Rules, Classifications, and Interpretations for Workers Compensation
Insurance,
Construction Risk Management Manual,
Manual of Insurance Checklists,
Manufacturing Risk Management and Insurance,
all from Int'l Risk Management Institute, Inc., 12222 Merit Drive, Suite
1600, Dallas TX 75251-2217, USA.
Reed, Alan and Watt, Steve (1990) Computer Risk Manager (2nd ed.), Elsevier
Advanced Technology, Oxford.
Roberto, Vito (1990) Die Hartung des Reiseveranstalters, Zurcher Studien zum
Privatrecht Nr 70, Schulthess Polygraphischer Verlag, Zurich.
Rose, Philippe and Le Doran, Serge (1989) La Criminalite informatique en
France, CESE Nanterre.
Tutt, Nigel (1989) Europe on the fiddle, Christopher Helms, publishers, 21-5
North St, GB-Bromley, Kent BR11SD, phone 0466-6622.
Computerized information systems are helping in the battle against fraud in the EC. The
European Commission has created a database, IRENE, which stocks some 3'000 fraud irregularities and teaches new recruits to combat the problem. Responding to the lack of basic
record keeping and fraud, the Italian Agecontrol agency has created its own cultivation register using aerial photographs of olive groves and counting by powerful computer systems.
The level of farm fraud rip-offs is estimated by various authorities at some 2 billion ECUs
par annum, i.e. larger than the entire information industry of Europe.
U.S. National Committee for the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1989)
Reducing Disasters' Toll, National Academy Press, Washington D.C.
- 14 -
CONFERENCES 1990 (July to December)
July
Aug.
Sep.
COMADEM 90, 2nd Int'l Congress on Condition Monitoring and
Diagnostic Engineering Management, July 16-18, BruneI University,
London, UK;
Comadem is a fast growing, problem-solving, holistic and novel discipline;
Info: Dr Brian Griffiths, Manufacturing and Engineering Systems Department, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UB8 3PH, UK, phone 0895-74000
X2603.
ICED, Int'l Conference on Engineering Design: State of the Art EastWest; Aug. 28-30, Dubrovnik/Y;
Info: Heurista, Conf. Dept., p.a.Box 102, CH-8028 Zurich.
2nd Disaster Prevention and Limitation Conference, Sep. 11-13, University of Bradford/UK, and
European Workshop Sep. 13, sponsored by the Ee-Commission under
its SPRINT-Programme;
The workshop intends to identify what measures should be taken on a
Pan European basis with regard to either preventing or mitigating the
consequences of major disasters.
Discussion papers are still strongly welcomed; they will be
included in the proceedings and published in hardback form.
Info: Dr A.Z.Keller, University of Bradford, Bradford BD7 1DP/UK;
phone 0274-733466X419.
.
First IUPAC Workshop on Safety in Chemical Production, Sep 9-13,
Basel, Switzerland;
Info: IUPAC Workshop, P.o.Box 141, CH-4007 Basel.
Eurotox '90, 30th Congress of the European Society of Toxicology, Sep
12-14, Karl Marx Universitat, DDR-7010 Leipzig;
Info: Sekretariat ''Eurotox '90'~ Prof Dr WD. Wiezorek, P. a.Box 1033,
DDR-7010 Leipzig.
Effective Leadership of Hazard and Operability Studies, Sep 3-6 and
10-13, London,
Info: IBC Technical Services Ltd, Byfleet, SU"ey KT14 7JL, UK
Congres International pour I'Amenagement des Catastrophes, Urgences 90, Sep 24-27, Le Caire, Egypt; organise en association avec
UNDRO, OIPC, Red Cross; Languages English, Arabic, French;
Info: Academie de la Recherche Scientifique et de la Technologie, 101 rue
Kasr El-Ain~ Le Caire 11516, Republique Arabe d'Egypte, tel. 2023557972/3546532.
Human Factors in Reliability, Sep 24-28, TV Delft, under the auspices
ofESRA,
Info: Prof Dr A.R. Hale, Safety Science Group, Delft University of Technology, P. v.Box 5050, NL-2600 GB Delft, phone 015-781706/781477.
Corporate Risk Management and Insurance, Sep 24-26, Brussels;
Info: Management Centre Europe, rue Caroly 15, B-l040 Bruxelles, phone
02-5161911.
Oct.
1st European Conference on Generic Risk, Oct. 17, London/UK;
Info: Technology Forum, Stanley House, Stanley Ave., Wembley HAO 4JB.
- 15 -
1990 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Oct. 7-10, New
Orleans/USA;
Info: SRA, 8000 Westpark Drive, Suite 400, McLean, VA 22102, USA.
Composec 90 international, the conference on computer security, EDP
audit, and control, Od 10-12, London, UK;
Info: Penny Moon, Elsevier Seminars, Mayfield House, 256 Banbury
Road, Oxford OX2 7DH, UK, phone 0865-512242.
20th Int'l Insurance and Risk Management Conference, Oct. 24-26,
Barcelona/Spain;
Info: Management Centre Europe, Postbus 96, NL-3417 ZH Montfoort,
phone 02-5161911.
Nov.
Environmental Risk Management, The European Case, Nov. 22-23,
Kiev/USSR,
The conference is co-organized by the Society for Risk Analysis
(European Section), and Committee for System Analysis of the USSR
Academy of Sciences (Working Group for Risk Analysis and Safety);
The conference will focus particularly on methodologies for risk
assessment, advances in risk reduction technologies, criteria for
the management of risks in the areas of environment and
health.
Info: SRA-E Conference Secretariat, IMSA, Institute for Environment and
System Analysis, Emmastraat 16, NL-1075 HT Amsterdam, phone 0206620696, or: Jl:M Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, Glushkov Ave 20,
Kiev 252207, USSR, phone 044-131272.
Liability Developments in Europe and the U.S., Nov 29-30, Zurich;
Info: MCE, rue Caroly 15, B-1040 Bruxelles, phone 02-5161911.
1991
4th Hans Wolfgang Workshop on Toxic Metal Compounds
(Interrelation between Chemistry and Biology), March 4-8, 1991, Les
Diablerets/ Switzerland; and
2nd IAEAC Soil Residue Analysis Workshop, March 11-13, 1991, Lausanne/Switzerland;
Info: Prof Dr Joseph Tarradellas, IGE-EPFL, CH-l015 Lausanne.
6th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, June 3-7, 1991, Mexico City; Cerra, International Association for Civil Engineering Reliability and Risk Analysis.
Info: Instituto de ingenieria, UNAM, Ciudad universitaria, apartado postal
70-472, coyoacan 04510, Mexico, D.F.
Reliability in Europe 91 - Competitiveness through Reliability, June
10-12, 1991, Int'l Conference on Reliability Techniques and their
Application, sponsored by ISREA(CEC),
Info: Barbara White, AEA Technology (UK), Wigshaw Lane Culcheth,
Warrington WA34NE, UK, phone 0925-31244, X4243.
lEE Third Int'l Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Power Systems, July 3-5, London, 1991,
Info: The Institution of Electrical Engineers, Savoy Place, London WC2R
OBL, UK, phone 01-2401871.
- 16 - .
XIIIth international CNAC-NAVB-Colloquium, Brussels/B September
16-18, 1991, on Safety and Health throughout the Planning and Construction Process;
Info: ANPAT, rue Gachard 88,1050 Bruxelles.
CONFERENCES 1990 (January to June)
Jan 24, London: Building Design Liability;
Info: ReActions Ltd, 39/41 North Road, London N79DP, phone 071-6098661.
Feb 7, Mannheim: 14. Mannheimer Versicherungswirtschaftliche Jahrestagung,
Info: Institut fUr Versichemngswissenschaft der Universitiit Mannheim, Postfach
103462, D-6800 Mannheim 1.
Feb 7, London: Directors and Officers - are you a liability?
Info: ReActions Ltd, (see Jan 2).
Feb 7, London: Disaster Relief and Mitigation;
Info: British Consultants Bureau, 1 Westminster Palace Gardens, 1-7 Artillery Row,
London SW1P 1RJ, UK, phone 071-2223651.
Feb 8-9, Zurich: The Seventh M.O.R.E. - SEMINAR, organized by the Geneva
Association, took place at the ETH Ziirich, The Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. The Theme of the conference was THE DESIGN OF TECHNICAL
SYSTEMS. Papers on subjects related to product liability, environmental liability
and loss prevention, covering the five phases of product-life: (l)Design, (2)
Production, (3) Distribution, (4) Utilization,(5) Elimination, were presented,
with special emphasis on software reliability and electromagnetic reliability.
The Bradford Disaster Scale, by Dr AZ. Keller, University of Bradford,
UK.
The Evaluation and Application of Predictive Risk Estimates, Anthony R.
Taig~ ABA Technology, Warrington, UK.
Risk assessment for critical computer systems, Florus Koorneef, Delft University of Technology, Delft, NL.
The use of finite element analysis for structural qualification and clearance
of products, by Dr Anup. K Puri, Marconi Defense Systems,
Ltd,England.
Risk management for the transportation of hazardous materials: a local
study in Lyons, by Philippe Hubert et Pierre Pages, CEPS, France.
Inadequate design of a storage facility, by Rudolf Scheidegger and Alex J.
Bernhard, Elvia insurance company, Switzerland.
Harmonization of product liability law in Europe, by Michael Faure, Rijksuniversiteit te Leiden, Netherlands.
The environmental liability of the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, by JeanFran~ois Nicod, Woodward Clyde Consultants, Lausanne.
March 13-16, CNIT Paris, 8th Worldwide Congress on Computer and Communications Security and Protection;
Info: SEDEP, 8 rue de fa Michodiere, F-75002 Paris.
- 17 -
March 15, Birmingham: The Need for Environmental Risk Assessment, their
execution and interpretation;
Info: Cremer and Warner, Windsor House, Gadbrook Business Center, Northwich
CW9 7TN, UK, phone 0606-49077.
April 2-3, IIASA Laxenburg: The 2nd Conference of the European Section of
the Society for Risk Analysis: Risk Analysis, Standards and Abnormal
Occurrences, SRA Europe, IIASA and WHO Europe;
Info: IIASA Conference Center, A-2361 Laxenburg, phone 02236-715210.
April 4, Robinson College, Cambridge/UK, AIRMIC CONFERENCE 1990:
THE RJSKY NINETIES - NAILING THE CHALLENGE, with the following
papers:
The Challenge of Risk Control, by Terry Sparkes,
The Challenge of Risk Financing, by Ms Sarah J Laycock,
The strengths and vulnerabilities of multinational operations, by Wolfgang F Friedel,
The Future of the London Insurance Market, by T J Palmer,
From the Limits to Growth to the Limits to Certainty, by Orio Giarini,
The Enterprise under Siege, by Robert de Vilder,
April 25-27, Toronto, CDN, Municipal Solid Waste Management: Making Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty;
Info: Lorraine Craig, Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo, Waterloo,
Ontario N2L 3GL, Canada.
April 26-27, Leicester, The greening of the curriculum, The impact of environmentalism on business education;
Info: Dr Denis Smith, Leicester Business School P.Q.Box 143, Leicester LE1 9BH,
UK
April, Lisboa, Congresso Ibero-Europeu, Prevention of professional risks - 90's,
Info: aptps, associa~ao portuguesa de tecnicos de preven~ao e seguran~a, rua
Angelina Vulal57, 1100 Lisboa/PortugaL
May 7-8, Arlington, Virginia: Forum on Risk of Indoor (Asbestos) Building
Materials,;
Info: Society for Risk Analysis, 8000 Westpark Drive, Suite 130, McLean, VA 22102,
USA, phone 703-7901745.
May 17-18, Paris: International Product Liability Risk Management, Minimising
Product Liability Risk: An International Perspective;
Info: MCE, Postbus 95, NL-3417 ZH Montfoort.
May 30-31, Eagle Lodge/Philadelphia: Minimizing Environmental Damage:
Strategies for managing hazardous wastes; Wharton Risk and Decision Processes Center, Univ. of Pennsylvania, and Environmental Associates of the U.S.
Academy of Natural Sciences. Papers presented included:
Managing hazardous waste - past, present, future; an overview paper, by
Howard Kunreuther,
The importance of the technical characteristics of hazardous materials in
considering environmental risk, by Ruth Patrick,
- 18 -
Technology forecasting as a risk management tool, by Thomas J. Tuffey,
Public perception of hazardous waste, by Susan G. Hadden,
Cleanup of old waste: some thoughts on rethinking the fundamentals of
SUPERFUND, by Gene A Lucero,
Strategies for managing present and future waste, by Marcia E. Williams,
Capturing SUPERFUND's potential: ideas on the Federal cleanup program
and environmental lawmaking generally, by Seth Mones.
Info: Prof. Howard Kunreuther 215-898-5688.
June 6-7, London: Construction insurance in 1990;
Info: IBC Financial Focus Ltd, Byfleet KT14 7JL, UK
June 10-13, Washington, Int'l Conference on Pollution Prevention: Clean Technologies & Clean Products;
Info: EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agenq, Maria Bourassa, 703-734-3198)
Washington D.C.20460, and /ACT (Int'l Association for Clean Technologies),
Vienna.
Pollution, Environmental Impairment and Waste, June 19-20, London;
Info: IBC Financial Focus Ltd, IBC House, Canada Road, Byfleet KT14 7JL, UK
June 19-20, Albany, N.Y.: 3rd Annual Hazardous Waste Reduction Congress,
Info: N.r: State Dept of Environmental Conservation, and The Business Council of
N.r: State, Inc., Mark Moroukian 518-485-8400.
June 25-26, London: Contracts and Liabilities in Electronic Banking: What are
the risks and who should carry them?;
Info: IBC, Legal studies and services Ltd, Bath House 3F, 56 Holborn Viaduct,
London EClA 2EX, UK
June 28-29, Lausanne: 2nd European Conference of the International Association for Impact Assessment IAIA;
Info: Prof L.r: Meystre, Institut du Genie de l'Environnement, EPFL, CH-I015
Lausanne-Ecublens, Switzerland.
NEW RESEARCH PROGRAMMES ON RISK MANAGEMENT
ISSUES
EPOCH, European Programme on Climatology and Natural Hazards, 19891992:
The programme is sub-divided into four research areas:
past climates and climate change,
climate processes and models,
climatic impacts and climate-related hazards,
seismic hazards.
Further information and guidelines for the submission of research proposals are
available from Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General for
Science, Research and Development, 200, rue de la Lo~ B-1049 Brnxelles.
STEP, Science and Technology for Environmental Protection, 1989-1992:
- 19 -
STEP contains nine research areas:
Environment and human health,
assessment of risks linked to chemical substances,
changes in atmosphere and air quality,
water quality,
protection of top soil and aquifers,
research on the ecosystem,
protection and maintenance of the European cultural heritage,
technologies for environmental protection,
big technological risks and fire safety.
Further information and guidelines for the submission of research proposals are
available from Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General for
Science, Research and Development, Directorate Environment and non-nuclear
Energies, 200, rue de la Lo~ B-1049 Bruxelles.
UNIVERSITY COURSES ON RISK ISSUES
Risk Theory, part of a post-~raduate course at the Universidade catolica portuguesa, Faculdade de Cienclas Economicas e Empresariais (Prof J. LemaIre),
Palma de Cima, P-1600 Lisbon, phone 7265550.
Postgraduate Course TopTech Studies / Delft University of Technology on,
among others:
Management of Safety, Health and Environment: Risk Assessment and
Control,
Human Factors in Reliability,
The Safety Policy and Management Programme,
Software Reliability and the Safety of programmable Systems,
Info: Prof Dr Andrew R Hale, director, TopTech Studies, P.O.Box 5048, NL-2600
GA Delft, phone 015-788019, or 782111
5th 3-month Training Course on Environmental Impact Assessment, University
of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK;
Info: Ms. S.M. Ralston, Centre for Environmental Management and Planning,
CEMP, 48 College Bounds, Old Aberdeen AB9 1FX, Scotland, UK
6th Annual European Summer School on Major Hazards, the Assessment and
Control of Risk; July 23 - 27, 1990, Jesus College, Cambridge/UK, organized by
IBC Technical Services Ltd, Canada Road Industrial Estate, Byfleet, Surrey KT14
71L, UK
CfP 2s, Quantitative Risk Assessment for Environmental and Occupational
Health Hazards, July 9-13, 1990, part of the Coordinated MIT Summer Programs on Policy Analysis and Strategy;
Office of the Summer Session, Room E19-356, MIT, Cambridge MA 02139, phone
617-2532101.
The 19th Annual one-week short course on Hierarchical-Multiobjective
Approach in Water Resources Planning and Management: 1990 Theme Risk
Assessment and Management;
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, Olsson
Hal~ Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA
- 20 -
REFERENCES TO OTHER NEWSLETTERS AND JOURNALS ON
RISK MANAGEMENT ISSUES
Civil Justice Roundtable, the Newsletter of the Institute for Civil Justice, The
RAND Corporation, 1700 Main St, P.O.Box 21338, Santa Monica, CA 904062138, USA
Condition Monitoring and Diagnostic Technology, a British Institute for NonDestructive Testing publication, 1 Spencer Parade, Northampton NN15AA, UK.
Disaster Preparedness in the Americas, the Newsletter of the Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Relief Coordination Programme of the Pan American
Health Organization (WHO's regional office for the Americas); Pan American
Health Organization, 525 23rd Street, N.W., Washington D.C. 20037, USA.
ESRA newsletter, published three times a year by Commission of the European
Communities, Joint Research Centre, Ispra Establishment, 1-21020 Ispra/Italy,
phone 0332-789111.
FORESIGHT, the journal of the Institute of Risk Management; published by
Risk and Insurance Research Group Ltd., 4 Henrietta St, London WC3 8PS/UK.
Insurance Systems Bulletin, monthly management review of Information Technology in the UK insurance industry; IBC Financial Publishing, 57-61, Mortimer
St, London WIN 7TD.
Pollution Prevention News, monthly, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(PM-219), Washington, DC 20460.
Product Liability International, essential briefing for manufacturers, insurers
and lawyers on product liability and safety; monthly, LLP Lloyd's of London
Press, Sheepen Place, Colchester, C03 3LP, UK, phone 0206-772277.
RISK ABSTRACTS, a· quarterly journal of abstracts, reviews and references,
published by Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo, Waterloo,
Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada.
Risk newsletter, published by the Society for Risk Analysis, 8000 Westpark
Drive, Suite 130, McLean, VA 22101, USA
Risk Management Reports, bimonthly publication by Tillinghast; Tillinghast
Publications, Financial Centre, Suite 600, 695 East Main St, Stamford, CT 069012138, phone 203-3265400.
TDR, Transnational Data and Communications Report, reporting on international trade in data services, published by Transnational Data Reporting Service
Inc., G. Russel Pipe, President, P.O.Box 10528, Burke, VA 22009-0528, USA,
phone 703-3239116.
The Risk Report,
Risk Financing Newsletter,
from: Int'l Risk Management Institute, Inc., 12222 Merit Drive, Suite 1600,
Dallas TX 75251-2217, USA
Egalement dans la collection Reflexions sur les sciences et les techniques:
Les limites du certain
Aventures mathematiques
Affronter les risques dans une nouvelle economie de service
Miguel de Guzman
Les jeux ont de tout temps ete un centre d'interet pour les malhemaliciens, qu'ils les aient
con~us ouqu'ils s'en soient amuses. Et nombre de leurs elucubralions, precisement de parcel
Orio Giarini et Walter R. Stahel
Preface d'lIya Prigogine
Cet ouvrage fait suite au rapport Dialogue sur la richesse et Ie bien-etre
publie sous les auspices du Club de Rome en 1980. Celui-ci soutenait que les
limites de la croissance correspondaient a un certain type de croissance
economique, developpe avec succes lors des deux demiers siecles. Dans la
pratique, il s'agissait de definir la notion de croissance en incluant ala fois les
facteurs economiques et les facteurs ecologiques. Dans la theorie, if s' agissait
de reviser la notion de valeur.
Cette transition economique correspondait egalement a un mouvement
philosophique plus fondamental favorisant l'indeterminisme par rapport au
determinisme: aujourd'hui, les notions de risque et d'incertitude sont de plus
en plus choisies comme terrain pour de nouveaux defis. II s'agit des lors de leur
donner une connotation positive alors que la vision deterministe du monde
continue de leur attribuer un niveau de connaissance imparfaite que la science
peut ou doit eliminer.
La finalite du progres economique a toujours ete la recherche de la
meilleure alloc~tion des ressources. Or, force est de constater que les ressources d'aujourd'hui se presentent sous la forme d'activites de services. Afin de
mieux les mesurer et de mieux les exploiter, if nous faut constituer un nouveau
cadre tMorique de reference base sur les notions de risque et d'incertitude en
economie de service et remplacer ainsi I'equilibre certain de notre systeme
actuel de pensee. Qui dit activites de service dit performances en temps reel
dans un univers de probabilites et non plus statique. Les limites du certain
exposent ainsi les fondements de l'economie de service.
1 __ .
.
__
----J~
._--
..
enchevetrement singulier du jeu et des mathematiques qui les rend parfois indiscemables, om
donne lieu a de nouveaux modes de penser que nous considerons aujourd'hui comme de la
science.
Les essais que ce livre presente mettent en relief la veine ludique des mathematiques. II s 'agit
en fait de montrer quelques notions tres simples et intuitives. Ce n'est pas aproprement parler
un livre de divertissement bien qu'il procede d'un esprit amusant. L'auteur a voulu avant lout
faire participer Ie lecteur pour stimuler son intuition malhematique, pour lui perrneUre de
concevoir des strategies de pensee modemes et efficaces servant ala resolution de problemes,
qu'ils soient mathematiques ou non.
1990,184 pages, 16x24 em, broche, SFr. 46.-
~-----------------------------
}!
BULLETIN DE COMMANDE
A completer et a retourner aux:
PRESSES POLYTECHNIQUES
ET UNIVERSITAIRES ROMANDES
EPFL - Ecublens, CH - 1015 Lausanne, Suisse
Tel: 021/69341 31
Fax: 021/69347 47 (Att. PPUR)
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Prix valables jusqu'au 31 decembre 1990
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Q j'inclus Ie reglement de mal notre commande par cheque bancaire "ordre des Presse;i
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ella documentation sur les ouvrages de notre collection Diriger I'entreprise
I Introduction - Le risque et son nouveau champ d'action: 1'6conomie de
I service - La production de la richesse des nations, les preneurs de risques
NOM
I et I'offre en 6conomie. La dynamique do desequilibre - Aux racines de
I l'incertitude.
ADRESSSE
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1990,204 pages, 16x24 em, broehe, SFr. 59.-
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I
- 22 -
Macmillan are pleased to announce the publication of
Sickness, Recovery and Death
by James C. Riley,
winner of the 1988 Ernst Meyer Prize,
of the GENEVA ASSOCIATION.
This authoritative study charts the history of sickness in Europe
and North America from the seventeenth century through to the
present day.
The book points out that while mortality has declined through the
ages. ill health rates show an independent trend. Before about
1870 they fluctuated, depending on disease exposure, the age of
the population. and some other factors. Since about 1870 ill
health rates have increased and a continuing increase is predicted
for the futur:e.
Sickness. Recovery and Death is published in hardcover at
£ 37.50 and can be ordered through your local bookseller.
For further information contact
za Buahell, Macmillan Presa Ltd.
BruneI Road, Houndmills, Buingstoke, Hampshire, RG21, 2XS
Telephone (0256) 29242