TATA Transit Feasibility Study

Transcription

TATA Transit
Feasibility Study
Neighbours Helping Neighbours Society
March, 2015
Harry Cook, C.A.
Management Consultant
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (902) 497-4664
Contents
1
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................3
2
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 7
2.1
Lead Organization ......................................................................................................................................7
2.2
Study Purpose and objective .................................................................................................................... 7
2.3
Scope of Work and Methodology ..............................................................................................................7
3
Background ..................................................................................................................................................... 8
3.1
Unique Community .....................................................................................................................................8
3.2
Need for Public Transit .............................................................................................................................. 9
3.3
Target Markets .......................................................................................................................................... 10
3.4
Basis for Estimating Demand, Ridership and Fare Revenue ................................................................ 10
4
Community Profile ........................................................................................................................................ 12
4.1
Catchment area ......................................................................................................................................... 12
4.2
Demographic Profile of Catchment Area ................................................................................................ 14
5
Community Engagement .............................................................................................................................. 15
5.1
Transit Needs Assessment ...................................................................................................................... 15
5.2
Townhall Meetings.................................................................................................................................... 15
6
Market ............................................................................................................................................................ 17
6.1
Wheelchair-bound persons ..................................................................................................................... 17
6.2
Medical Services ....................................................................................................................................... 17
6.3
Training Facilities ..................................................................................................................................... 18
6.4
Seniors ...................................................................................................................................................... 19
6.5
Youth ......................................................................................................................................................... 19
7
Potential Funding Sources........................................................................................................................... 20
8
Proposed Service Model .............................................................................................................................. 20
8.1
Business Model Evaluation ..................................................................................................................... 21
8.1.1
“Stand Alone” Operation ............................................................................................................................21
8.1.2
100% Owned and operated by CTCL ............................................................................................................22
8.1.3
“Branch” of CTCL.........................................................................................................................................22
8.1.4
Volunteer-based “Rideshare” .....................................................................................................................23
8.2
Capital Investment .................................................................................................................................... 24
8.3
Projected Revenues and Operating Expenses ...................................................................................... 25
8.4
Financial analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 26
8.4.1
Projections - Option 1 – “Stand Alone” Operation .......................................................................................26
8.4.2
Projections - Option 2 – “Branch” Operation of CTCL ..................................................................................26
8.4.3
Fully Operational ........................................................................................................................................28
8.4.4
Start-up ......................................................................................................................................................30
8.4.5
Reality Check on Fare Revenue Calculations................................................................................................32
8.5
Governance Structure .............................................................................................................................. 34
9
Summary and Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 34
9.1
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 34
9.2
Recommendations.................................................................................................................................... 34
10
Next Steps ................................................................................................................................................. 34
11
Appendices ............................................................................................................................................... 36
11.1
APPENDIX “A” - Key Assumptions used in the financial projections ................................................. 37
11.2
APPENDIX “B" - Letters of Support ........................................................................................................ 39
11.2.1
Letter of Support – Tatamagouche Village Commission ...............................................................................40
11.2.2
Letter of Support – Lillian Fraser memorial Hospital ....................................................................................41
11.2.3
Letter of Support – Tatamagouche Centre...................................................................................................43
11.2.4
Letter of Support – Dorje Denma Ling .........................................................................................................44
11.2.5
Letter of Support – District 7 Councillor ......................................................................................................45
11.2.6
Letter of Support – North Shore Community Health Board .........................................................................46
11.2.7
Letter of Support – River John Community Action Society ...........................................................................47
11.2.8
Letter of Support – Open Doors ..................................................................................................................48
11.2.9
Letter of Support - Sharon United Church Tatamagouche Pastoral Charge ..................................................49
11.2.10
Letter of Support – Food Bank ................................................................................................................50
1
Executive Summary
“TATA Transit” is the working name of a proposed Community Transit Service to be based in
Tatamagouche to serve the communities in the northern part of Colchester County and the
River John area of Pictou County.
Tatamagouche is a rather unique and progressive regional community. It is located in a part of
the Province that has, for the most part, a natural east/west traffic travel pattern that crosses
three counties, Cumberland, Colchester and Pictou, rather than a north/south pattern confined
within the boundaries of one county. This makes it a bit of an anomaly when it comes to trying to
fit this community Transit service into the confines of a Provincially-supported Community
Transit system where services tend to be confined within county borders.
The current Community Transit System that is mandated to service the Tatamagouche area is
Colchester Transportation Cooperative Limited (CTCL) based in Truro, which has all of
Colchester County as its catchment area. For a number of practical reasons however, CTCL
appears not to be able to provide adequate and affordable transportation services to the TATA
Transit proposed catchment area. This Feasibility Study could help provide CTCL and CHAD,
which is responsible for the River John area, with a strategy and a rationale whereby they can
meet the terms of their current mandates.
The village of Tatamagouche is part of a “cluster” of small communities along highway #6 in
what is known locally as “The North Shore”, from Pugwash to River John. The size of the
market in the Tata Transit catchment area (population 3,413) is very small with no large
identifiable “core” market segments when compared to other Community Transit services in the
Province. It has a small core area with restaurants, large grocery store, library, regional hospital,
regional high school, gas station, fire station, regional recreation centre…including a hockey
rink…, seniors-care facility, and two large training Centres, the Tatamagouche Centre and
Dorge Denma Ling.
It is a popular vacation spot where the population increases
substantially….some say doubles….during the summer months. It is also unique and
progressive in that it has a number of electric vehicle battery charging stations within the village
in anticipation of the growth of the electric vehicle industry.
From discussions in the two townhall meetings held as part of this feasibility study it was very
clear that there is a strong sense of “community” in Tatamagouche wherein some participants
looked at transportation service providers from Truro for instance, as being “outsiders”.
This strong sense of community can be considered a strength and of significant value when it
comes to a community-based Transit system based in Tatamagouche as it will likely be
supported and used more often if it is perceived by the community as being “their own”.
TATA Transit’s catchment area is, for all intents and purposes, a geographic “pocket” area of
the Colchester County that is effectively being excluded from a much needed affordable
transportation service and the community is exploring the feasibility of providing a service within
its catchment area that is affordable, efficient, accessible, and reliable that will respond to the
needs of local community members.
Page 3 of 50
Management explored four business models for TATA Transit in this Feasibility Study ranging
from a totally “Stand-Alone” operation at one end of the spectrum to a totally volunteer-run
operation at the other end of the spectrum before narrowing it down to two: a “Stand-Alone”
business model and a “Branch” business model….as a branch of Colchester Transit Cooperative Limited (CTCL).
After completing the financial analysis of these two models, management decided upon a
“Branch” operation of CTCL as the most viable and least expensive business model for TATA
Transit. To enhance a sense of community ownership this model would be branded separately
from CTCL as “TATA Transit”, with a local manager to constantly market the service locally,
including to the two large training centres, with the dispatcher and the drivers also coming from
the local community. Management would require a position on the CTCL Board in order to keep
communication lines open and to receive…and to give…advice relating to its catchment area at
a high level within CTCL, particularly relating to marketing opportunities.
As a “Branch” of CTCL it is felt that it would create a “win/win” situation for both CTCL and for
the people within the TATA Transit catchment area. Through its association with CTCL it would
be able to achieve a number of cost savings and synergies while at the same time providing
CTCL with the means to fulfil its current mandate throughout all of Colchester County. At the
same time the people within the TATA Transit’s catchment area, including trainees at the two
large training centres, would receive accessible, efficient, affordable and cost-effective
transportation to the most northerly area of CTCL’s catchment area.
To meet the demand of the general public and the occasional group transportation….particularly
to and from the training centres as well as seniors’ group outings for instance….it is felt that a 9
passenger accessible vehicle would be the most appropriate sized vehicle. And due to the
geographic dispersal of the population within the proposed catchment area, a door-to-door
pickup and delivery transportation model is proposed as the most appropriate and cost effective
model for TATA Transit.
CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS (Vehicle)
Vehicle Cost: (9 passenger vehicle)
$82,300
Funding:
Capital Grant – ATAP – 66%
Community Fundraising
$54,318
27,982
$82,300
It is anticipated that TATA Transit will be able to raise its share of the total required capital
funding aggregating $27,982 for the first vehicle….through local fundraising, individual and
corporate donations and sponsorships.
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED NET INCREMENTAL COSTS – FULLY OPERATIONAL
Estimated Revenues
Fare Revenue
Other Revenue
Total Revenue
Less: Total Operating Expenses
Net Incremental Costs
“Stand Alone”
(.41 rides/ capita)
$6,995
2,332
9,327
(49,694)
($40,367)
Branch “A”
(.41 rides/ capita)
(High Range)
$6,995
2,332
9,327
(32,642)
($23,315)
Branch “B”
(.27 rides/ capita)
(Low Range)
$4,608
2,212
6,820
(31,563)
($24,743)
Page 4 of 50
The financial analysis of both the “Stand Alone” and the “Branch” operating models indicates
that there would be a significant net cost saving of an estimated $15,600 to $17,000 per year if
TATA Transit was operated as a “Branch” of CTCL rather than a “Stand Alone” operation.
In a start-up year when the market is not yet fully developed it is estimated that the net
incremental costs would be approximately $26,439 rounded to $27,000….as summarized
below:
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED NET INCREMENTAL COSTS – START-UP YEAR
Branch “B”
(.13 rides/ capita)
$2,220
2,124
4,344
(30,783)
($26,439)
Estimated Revenues
Fare Revenue
Other Revenue
Total Revenue
Less: Total Operating Expenses
Net Incremental Costs
We did not have access to the books of CTCL, which is beyond the scope of this feasibility
study anyway, therefore we were not able to assess the financial capability of CTCL to provide
operating funds to finance TATA Transit. In discussions with staff at the Province’s Dept. of
Municipal Affairs…who administer the Provincial Community Transit funding….it was learned
that the Department is constrained by the current program guidelines in providing any additional
operating subsidies to CTCL to support TATA Transit as proposed herein. Since the Province is
already providing the maximum subsidy under its regulations to CTCL and CHAD to cover their
catchment areas….as currently defined (being all of Colchester and Pictou Counties
respectively, including the proposed TATA Transit catchment area), it appears that it would be
up to CTCL (and to a lesser degree CHAD) to provide adequate funding under their current
funding programs to accommodate the transportation needs of the people within the proposed
TATA Transit catchment area. The business model included in this Feasibility Study would
appear to be the most cost-effective way to achieve that goal.
Because TATA Transit’s proposed catchment area includes areas that are currently within both
CHAD’s and CTCL’s current catchment area, we suggest that the net incremental costs in a
start-up year aggregating approximately $27,000 be allocated between CTCL and
CHAD…..based on populations being serviced…as follows:
River John
Tatamagouche
Total
Population in
Catchment Area
457
2,956
3,413
% of
population
13.5%
86.5%
100%
Allocation of Net
Incremental Costs
$ 3,645
$23,355
$27,000
Page 5 of 50
Conclusion:
Based upon the research and the financial analysis embodied in this report, management
has concluded that there is a reasonable chance that TATA Transit, operating as a
“Branch” of CTCL, will be feasible and wishes to proceed to the next step with the
establishment of this Community Transit service to better serve the needs of the people
within its catchment area.
Page 6 of 50
2
Introduction
2.1 Lead Organization
Neighbours Helping Neighbours (NHN) is the initial sponsoring agent for TATA Transit.
(Please note, for the sake of convenience “TATA Transit” is the working name selected for
the Community Transit system being proposed to service the Tatamagouche area and may
not be the final name chosen.)
Neighbours Helping Neighbours Society (NHN) is a community-based charitable organization
that was formed in 2012 in order to meet the needs of the citizens of Tatamagouche and the
surrounding areas and became a registered charity effective January 2013.
The first project that NHN undertook was the creation of a much needed local food bank. The
food bank first opened its doors on Nov. 13, 2012 and is providing food to an average of 14
families per week. The success of this project is due to the strong support of individuals and
businesses within the community.
If TATA Transit had been determined to be feasible as a “stand-alone” organization, it was
the intention of NHN to incorporate a not-for-profit society under the Nova Scotia Societies
Act which would undertake the establishment and operations of TATA Transit. However,
since it has been determined, as set out below, that a transit system operated as a “Branch”
of Colchester Transportation Co-operative Limited (CTCL) would be the most appropriate
business model, TATA Transit will fall under the existing CTCL legal entity.
2.2 Study Purpose and objective
One observation that arose quite early after the establishment of the NHN was that there was
a lack of affordable and reliable local public transportation. As a result, the Board of NHN
decided to pursue a study of the feasibility of providing a community-based, accessible public
transportation system to meet the needs of the communities in and around the village of
Tatamagouche.
2.3 Scope of Work and Methodology
This feasibility study is designed to assess both the market feasibility and the financial
feasibility of establishing and operating an accessible transportation system to serve the local
population in the village of Tatamagouche and surrounding communities. A variety of
business models that were thought to be appropriate to such a Transit system were
evaluated in this study.
Page 7 of 50
3
Background
3.1 Unique Community
Tatamagouche is a rather unique and progressive community. It is in a part of Colchester
County that has, for the most part, a natural east/west travel pattern that crosses three counties,
Cumberland, Colchester and Pictou rather than a north/south pattern confined within one
county. This makes it a bit of an anomaly when it comes to trying to fit it into the confines of
Provincially-supported Community Transit system model which tends to be confined within
county borders. The current Community Transit System that is mandated to service the
Tatamagouche area is Colchester Transportation Cooperative Limited (CTCL) based in Truro
which has all of Colchester County as its catchment area. Other neighbouring areas are
serviced by Central Highland Association of the Disabled (CHAD) to the east in Pictou County
and Cumberland County Transportation Services (CCTS) to the west in Cumberland County.
The village of Tatamagouche is part of a “cluster” of small communities along highway #6 in
what is known locally as “The North Shore”, from Pugwash to River John. The Village of
Tatamagouche has a small core with restaurants, large grocery store, library, regional hospital,
regional high school, EHS ambulance depot, gas station, fire station, regional recreation centre,
including a hockey rink, seniors care facility, and two large training Centres, the Tatamagouche
Centre and Dorge Denma Ling. It is a popular vacation spot where the population increases
substantially….some say doubles….during the summer months. One indicator of the unique and
progressive nature of the community is that it has a number of electric vehicle battery charging
stations within the village in anticipation of the further development of the electric vehicle
industry.
It was initially hoped that TATA Transit could use a battery-operated accessible vehicle however
it was decided that…..until such time that such vehicles become commonplace and less
expensive…..it would not be practical or cost-effective to use such a vehicle at this time. Also
due to the lack of charging stations present throughout the whole catchment area and
beyond….to accommodate trips to Truro or the airport for instance…..the risk of batteries dying
on route would be too high.
From discussions in the two townhall meetings held as part of this feasibility study it was very
clear that there is a strong sense of “community” in Tatamagouche wherein some participants
looked at transportation service providers from Truro for instance as being “outsiders”.
This strong sense of community can be considered a strength and of significant value when it
comes to a community-based Transit system based in Tatamagouche as it will likely be
supported and used more often if it is considered by the community as being “their own”.
Page 8 of 50
3.2 Need for Public Transit
Tatamagouche and several surrounding communities form a “cluster” of communities on the
north shore of Colchester County. These communities are relatively isolated from the
transportation infrastructure of the larger communities of Truro, Pictou and Amherst that are a
significant distance outside the perimeter of this cluster. Nuttby Mountain…which has the
highest elevation on mainland Nova Scotia…seems to be a natural geographic boundary
between Truro and Tatamagouche. Their general geographical location makes it impractical and
expensive for members of those communities to access transportation when travelling locally for
medical appointments, accessing the food bank, going to and from training facilities, the
recreation centre, after-school events, grocery and other shopping, social trips, visiting family
and friends etc.
There is no regular bus service or taxi service in the proposed TATA Transit catchment area.
There is however a small 4-passenger, accessible vehicle owned by Willow Lodge, a seniors
facility in Tatamagouche, that is used primarily by the Lodge to transport residents. The
management of the Lodge indicated that this vehicle could be used for transportation of seniors
only in the community but they would have to provide their own driver. When interviewing other
members and organizations in the community, including the hospital, some were not aware of
this service at all and those that were aware had significant concerns about liability and
insurance issues and would not use it for that reason.
At present there is a community Transit service operating in Colchester County by the
Colchester Transportation Cooperative Limited (CTCL) based in Truro. Management of TATA
Transit feels that there is a need in and around the Tatamagouche area for a more localized
service that will be more cost-effective and viable than having residents attempt to access the
existing CTCL service from Truro.
It is the intention of TATA Transit to explore opportunities to work closely with the other
Community Transit providers in Cumberland (CCTL) and Pictou Counties (CHAD) on either side
of Tatamagouche to see where they might complement each other’s services and achieve
synergies in the process.
An example of the current cost structure that demonstrates unaffordability of CCTL in the
Tatamagouche catchment area is that an individual requiring transportation from their home in
an area just outside the Tatamagouche core, to a doctor's appointment in the village of
Tatamagouche (round trip of 10km say) would involve CTCL sending an empty bus from Truro
to pick-up that individual and transport them to their appointment, wait, then return empty to
Truro (app. 120 km round trip). At present the fee for such a one-way trip would be $36.25.
Such a fee structure places this service well beyond the means of those in need of
transportation within the catchment area with the result that they are unlikely to use it. It is also
very unlikely that such a trip would be cost-effective for CTCL either, resulting in a “lose/lose”
situation.
TATA Transit’s catchment area is, for all intents and purposes, a geographic “pocket” area of
the County that is effectively being excluded from a much needed, affordable transportation
service.
Page 9 of 50
TATA Transit is exploring the feasibility of providing a service within its catchment area that is
affordable, accessible, and reliable and will respond more quickly and efficiently to the needs of
local community members.
3.3 Target Markets
The targeted market segments that would benefit from TATA Transit’s service include:
a) Seniors
 Medical appointments
 Social activities outside the home
 Seniors Home day trips
 Grocery shopping
 Church
 Community meetings
b) Youth
 After school programs
 Sports
c) Unwaged or low waged
 Access to foodbank
 Access to a job
d) People with disabilities
 Access to social & recreational activities
 Access to training facilities
 Medical appointments
 Access to community events
e) Commuters
 Transportation to a job
f) Training facilities
 Tatamagouche Centre
 Dorje Denma Ling
3.4 Basis for Estimating Demand, Ridership and Fare Revenue
Tatamagouche is a small community with no one large single “anchor” market segment that
could be identified during our research. It is likely that in order to be feasible, TATA Transit
will have to gain access to many small segments of the market all of which have been
explored in this study. Development of these small segments is much more likely to happen if
it is actively promoted locally by local people associated with a “perceived” local
transportation system because of the strong sense of community in Tatamagouche.
Our research included two townhall meetings that were widely advertised with a total of 25 in
attendance. We also conducted interviews with key people in key organizations in the
community including:



Lillian Fraser Memorial hospital,
Willow Lodge seniors home,
Dorje Denma Ling,
Page 10 of 50





Tatamagouche Centre,
Food bank,
Open Doors Careers Nova Scotia employment centre,
Train Station Inn tourist facility and
CTCL (Colchester Transportation Cooperative Ltd).
In addition to the primary research referred to above, we did a demographic profile of the
catchment area combined with internet research and a literature review and applied the
results of that research to the demographic profile in order to quantify the size of the market
that would likely participate in TATA’s Transit services.
We researched the ridership per capita of other Community Transit service providers in Nova
Scotia with comparable market profiles to determine what their actual market penetration
experience has been and applied their ridership-per-capita to the catchment area proposed
by TATA Transit.
Newest Community Transit Services in Nova Scotia
Transit Service
Catchment
Area
Population
5,280
14,496
23,635
14,470
Cheticamp
Sou’West
MusGo
Average
2013-14
Ridership
Rides Per
Capita
1,447
1,673
2,360
1,827
0.27
0.12
0.10
0.13
Fare
Revenue
$11,105
$20,231
$26,779
$19,372
Riders per capita in Small Service Area Populations (10,000 to 19,999) in NS
Transit Service
Chester
Clare
West Hants
Average
Catchment Area
Population
10,599
18,036
19,109
15,915
2013-14
Ridership
3,569
14,188
3,293
7,017
Rides Per
Capita
0.34
0.99
0.17
0.44
Fare
Revenue
7,118
21,843
104,804
44,667
Large Service Area Population (40,000 plus)
SERVICE
SERVICE AREA
CHAD
Kings PTP
CTCL
Average
2013-14 RIDERSHIP
45,643
47,885
50,968
48,165
RIDES PER
CAPITA
31,865
19,638
20,879
24,127
FARE REVENUE
0.70
0.41
0.41
0.50
171,390
173,219
37,655
127,425
Application of Estimated Rides per Capita in TATA Transit’s Service Area
Transit Service
TATA Low range rides per capita
TATA High range rides per capita
Catchment
Area
Population
3,413
3,413
Rides
Per
Capita
.27
.41
Estimated
Ridership
Average
Fare
Estimated Fare
Revenue
921
1,399
$5.00
$5.00
$4,608
$6,995
Page 11 of 50
In calculating the potential revenue…after the start-up “burn-in” period…from TATA Transit’s
catchment area based on comparable Rides per Capita experienced by other Community
Transit services it is clear that the population base within TATA Transit’s catchment area is
not large enough to sustain a stand-alone Transit system. (See projections below) In this
analysis we have calculated a range of potential fare revenues based on a low of .27 rides
per capita achieved by Cheticamp….the newest Community Transit System…and .41 rides
per capita which is the overall average achieved in 2013/2014 by CTCL which already
includes TATA Transit’s proposed catchment area. Clearly if TATA Transit’s catchment area
can be better serviced and better marketed within its proposed catchment area it will
increase the revenue to CTCL and without increasing the population within its current
catchment area it will automatically increase its overall rides per capita beyond its current .41
level.
4
Community Profile
4.1 Catchment area
The total proposed catchment area will consist of a “core” catchment area plus one “arm”
stretching to the east into Pictou County along Route #6 on the north shore to include the
community of River John.
The proposed “core” catchment area will include the village of Tatamagouche and will be
bounded to the west by the Cumberland/Colchester county line; to the east by the
Colchester/Pictou county line; to the north by the Northumberland Strait and to the south by a
line stretching from the Cumberland County line to the Pictou County line just south of, and
including, Earltown, This “core” catchment area has a population aggregating approximately
2,956 people of which approximately 2,037 or 70% are located within a radius of 10km of the
Tatamagouche village centre.
The “arm” will stretch into Pictou County to the east along Route #6 up to and including the
village of River John with a population aggregating approximately 457. The total population in
the extended catchment area, including the “core” and the “arm”, aggregates approximately
3,413 people with 60% of this total population being within 10km of the centre of the Village of
Tatamagouche.
A second “arm” to the west along Route #6 in Cumberland County was initially proposed and
would have included the village of Wallace however this was abandoned when research found
that area was currently being serviced by CTCS with a vehicle based in Pugwash. CTCS
requested that this feasibility study not include any of their catchment area in Cumberland
County.
Page 12 of 50
TATA Transit’s Proposed Catchment Area
457
1478
559
Core
2,956
919
Total
3,413
Page 13 of 50
4.2 Demographic Profile of Catchment Area
The following chart summarizes the demographics of the catchment area:
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE IN 10-YEAR INCREMENTS
AGE RANGE
“CORE”
“ARM”
TOTAL
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80+
Total
257
322
266
252
403
559
471
276
164
2,956
32
38
35
40
63
98
86
44
23
457
289
362
302
292
466
657
557
320
187
3,413
AGE RANGE
Children aged 0-9
Youth aged 10-19
Working Age 20-64
Seniors
65+
TOTAL
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE IN MARKET SEGMENT INCREMENTS
“CORE”
“ARM”
255
32
322
38
1,721
281
658
106
2,956
457
TOTAL
287
360
2,002
764
3,413
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF TATA's CATCHMENT
AREA IN 10 YR INCREMENTS
River John "Arm"
"Core" TATA Catchment Area
Total Catchment Area
400
300
200
100
0
0-4
years
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85
years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years +
Page 14 of 50
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF TATA's
CATCHMENT AREA
IN MARKET SEGMENTS
2,500
River John "Arm"
"Core" TATA Catchment Area
Total Catchment Area
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
0 to 19 years
5
20 to 64 years
65+ years
Community Engagement
5.1 Transit Needs Assessment
Based on the primary research done through interviews and townhall meetings there appears
to be general agreement as to the perceived need for a Community Transit System in the
Tatamagouche area primarily to provide service to those people:





In Wheelchairs
Accessing medical services
Using training facilities
Seniors
Youth
5.2 Townhall Meetings
Two Townhall meetings were held at the Tatamagouche Firehall on October 26, and
December 7, 2014 and resulted in a comprehensive list of comments by attendees:
Breakout Group Questions:
1.
How do you see others living in and around the Tatamagouche area using TATA
Transit? What transportation needs could it meet?



Carpooling to work places (airport, Truro, Wallace, Pictou)
Recreational
Medical
Page 15 of 50












2.
Shopping
Church
Clubs
Group meetings
Transportation from airport and/or Truro bus station to:
 The Tatamagouche Centre and
 Dorje Demna Ling Shambhala Centre
Appointments at Truro Hospital
People without a driver’s license
People without a car
After school programs/sports – to help children get home
Users of the foodbank who are without a means of transportation
Seniors in Centre of village for:
 Short trips (maybe small groups)
 Appointments
 May have walker or wheelchair with them….takes time
 There are at least 30 people in this group we are aware of ourselves
 Social, church, meetings etc.
 Christmas dinners
 Meetings like this one today
 Would use 1 or 2 times per week
Transportation from River John, Wallace etc.
What mix of transportation services would be most appropriate for the
Tatamagouche area? (a door-to-door service? fixed route service? small accessible
van? volunteer driven cars? Other?)




Community-based Transit/Community-based “rideshare” to be coordinated
“Region” to be defined by the community members
Combined community Transit and rideshare for trips to Pictou, Amherst,
Truro
Rideshare
 Web-based with a coordinator (‘Phone #)
 Informal
 Price (gas $)
 Keep $ in the community
Page 16 of 50
3.
What challenges come to mind in setting up a transportation service around the
Tatamagouche area? And in ensuring its sustainability?











6
Driving After dark
Winter driving
Cost reasonable?
Affordable for all
To be sustainable it must be used
Needs a lot of advertising so everyone knows about it…..Doctors’ offices,
hospital, mailboxes, churches, Willow Lodge, etc.
Weather
Insurance - is it a barrier for “rideshare”?
Knowing if there is enough demand
Coordination of “rideshare”
Are subsidies sustainable?
Market
The size of the market is very small when compared to other Community Transit systems
around the province. The following were identified as potential market segments:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Wheelchair-bound persons
Medical Service Facilites
Training facilities
Seniors
Youth
6.1 Wheelchair-bound persons
Research indicates that 4.6% of people over the age of 65 use a wheelchair for mobility 1.
TATA Transit’s catchment area has a total of 768 people aged 65 or older. Applying this
percentage would indicate that at least 35 people use wheelchairs in TATA’s catchment area.
6.2 Medical Services
Doctors
Among doctors there are four community GP’s who have indicated that they have an
estimate of 25-30 patients each for a total of 100-120 patients who have known
transportation issues getting to and from appointments or to the hospital2.
1
Physical and leisure Activity in Older Community-Dwelling Canadians Who Use Wheelchairs: A Population Study by
Krista L. Best and William C. Miller
2
Manager, Lilian Fraser Memorial Hospital in Tatamagouche
Page 17 of 50
Hospital
The hospital…..excluding those patients seeing doctors directly…..saw a total of 18,934
patients in 20143. It is not known how many of these patients require public transportation
because that statistic is not tracked. There is anecdotal evidence which indicates the
probability that a number of those patients do require transportation.
EHS (Emergency Health Services)
There are a number of pick-ups and drop-offs done by EHS (Emergency Health Service) that
are non-emergency some of which could just as easily be done by TATA Transit as EHS. If
paid by the patient these trips are very costly at $142.30 per trip.
In 2014 EHS made a total 277 low-urgent or non-urgent patient transfers to and from the
Lillian Fraser Hospital4 (111 transfers to…and 166 from) that are categorized as CTAS 4 and
5. These represent trips to or from other hospitals and medical centres and not nonemergency trips from individual’s homes to the hospital. CTAS is a triage scale from 1 to 5
with 1 being the highest severity and 5 being “non-urgent” so 4 and 5 are the least urgent
and would include such trips as inter-facility transportation for tests for instance. Of these 277
trips…180 were for tests.
In addition to these trips there would be other non-emergency trips by individuals from home
to the hospital or clinic that could possibly be done by TATA Transit because of a lack of
appropriate….including accessible….transportation. Although we do not know how many of
these trips could be done by TATA Transit there is clearly a potential market opportunity here
to be further explored.
6.3 Training Facilities
Tatamagouche Centre
The Tatamagouche Centre has a year-round training facility which runs approximately 60
programs per year with a total of 5,000-6,000 people attending per year. Management of
the Tatamagouche Centre estimate that they get 1-2 requests per program (100-120 per
year) for transportation from and to the Halifax airport. Particularly for the leaders who they
bring in to teach the various courses5. This is another potential market for TATA Transit’s
services.
3
Manager, Lilian Fraser Memorial Hospital in Tatamagouche
January to December 2014 Report from EHS Ambulance Operations Management
5
Executive Director of the Tatamagouche Centre
4
Page 18 of 50
Dorje Denma Ling Shambhala Buddhist Centre
Dorje Denma Ling (DDL) is a Shambhala Buddhist training and retreat facility. There are
approximately 800 to 1,000 participants visiting DDL for 2 to 14 day programs every
year.
About one third are estimated to come from outside of Atlantic Canada (a few of which might
drive up from the eastern seaboard, rather than fly in)
A large influx (about 50% of all participants) happens in the summer months, with a much
larger percentage of people at that time who come ‘from away’.
All other participants and most off-season and winter participants come from Halifax and the
rest of the Maritime provinces, some of which still ask for rides, from Halifax or Truro to DDL
and back.
They get as many or as few as 5 to 12 ride requests per month, but for specific summer
programs there is often need to hire a bus for 20 to 40 folks to go back and forth to and
from the airport or Halifax.6
6.4 Seniors
The demographic profile analysis indicates that there are approximately 768 people who are
aged 65 or older of which 337……or 44%......are 75 or older within the TATA Transit
catchment area. This would indicate that there is market potential to be explored within that
segment of the population who could use TATA Transit’s services.
6.5 Youth
The demographic analysis indicates that there are a total of 651 people under the age of 20
in TATA Transit’s catchment area. Of this number there are 362 who would be in the
targeted “youth” market aged 10-19 years old. These are likely the ones who could use
the TATA Transit for such things as after school programs or visiting friends and is a market
segment to be explored.
6
Executive Director of Dorje Denma Ling Shambhala Buddhist Centre
Page 19 of 50
7
Potential Funding Sources
There are a number of potential funding sources for both capital and operating funding that
may be available to TATA Transit:

NS-TRIP (NS Transit Research Incentive Program) – Province of NS providing
funding for Feasibility and Business Plan studies as well as early stage
operating funding for public transportation service providers in rural and
under-serviced urban communities For more information go to:
http://www.novascotia.ca/dma/funding/community/ns-Transit-researchincentive.asp

CTAP (Community Transportation Assistance Program) – Province of NS
provides partial funding for operating costs to not-for-profit community-based
organizations providing pre-booked door-to-door transportation services. For
more information go to:
http://www.novascotia.ca/dma/funding/community/community-transportationassistance-program.asp

ATAP (Accessible Transportation Assistance Program) – Province of NS
provides capital funding for accessible vehicles to transportation organizations
who qualify for CTAP funding. For more information go to:
http://www.novascotia.ca/dma/funding/community/accessible-transportationassistance.asp

Federal Gas Tax Program – Federal/Provincial program to assist Municipalities
with municipal infrastructure and capacity building projects. Can be accessed
through the local municipality. For more information go to:
http://novascotia.ca/dma/funding/infrastructure/gas-tax-fund.asp

8
Local Fundraising - In addition to accessing funding available from formal
sources above, local sources of funding will be approached through local
fundraising efforts among local businesses, municipal government sources
and the public in general.
Proposed Service Model
The overriding issue TATA Transit will be attempting to correct is the virtual nonexistence of
adequate and affordable transportation services to its citizens throughout its catchment area.
Technically CTCL is the Community Transit System with a mandate to service all of
Colchester County however due to the geographic constraints and unique travel patterns in
the northern part of the county it has not been able to service the Tatamagouche area
adequately. The distance from CTCL’s base in Truro makes it virtually impossible to
adequately service that area in a manner that is both cost-effective for CTCL and affordable
for passengers.
Page 20 of 50
In an attempt to provide affordable and efficient transportation NHN as the sponsor of TATA
Transit has commissioned this Feasibility Study to help clarify the issues and give them a
basis upon which to make a decision to proceed….or not….with setting up a Community
Transit System based in Tatamagouche. Although there are a number of other business
models that could be explored the following are the 4 models that were considered:
A) “Stand-Alone”- Totally independently owned, operated and based in
Tatamagouche
B) 100% Owned and operated by CTCL out of Truro
C) A “Branch” of CTCL but separately branded, operated and managed locally
in Tatamagouche
D) Informal volunteer-based “rideshare” operation in Tatamagouche
Due to the geographic dispersal of the population within the proposed catchment area, a
door-to-door pickup and delivery transportation model is proposed as the most appropriate
and cost effective model for TATA Transit.
8.1 Business Model Evaluation
TATA Transit is considering 4 different business models:
A) “Stand-Alone”- Totally independently owned, operated and based in
Tatamagouche
B) 100% Owned and operated by CTCL out of Truro
C) A “Branch” of CTCL but separately branded, operated and managed locally
in Tatamagouche
D) Informal volunteer-based “rideshare” operation in Tatamagouche
8.1.1
“Stand Alone” Operation
A) A totally independent, “stand-alone” operation based in Tatamagouche
 Pros:
a. The strong local sense of community “ownership” could mean the
difference between success and failure
b. There is a local group willing to work hard to make it a success
c. Will not be seen as being owned and operated by “outsiders” from
Truro
d. Local dispatcher and drivers would know the geography of the area
very well
 Cons:
a. Will not have the administrative resources, processes and support
presently available at CTCL such as:
 dispatcher who is already trained
 monthly reporting,
 scheduling of vehicle maintenance
 HR management of drivers, managers, dispatchers
 Invoicing & collecting on any contract revenue
 Dealing with insurance issues & claims
 Dispatch software that is already deployed and operational
 Marketing
Page 21 of 50
b. Would have to rely on others to acquire additional vehicle capacity,
availability and deployment in unexpected & emergency situations
c. Could be more expensive due to cost of hiring a dispatcher,
management and administrative support
d. Will be more of a steep learning curve to learn how to operate
effectively from scratch
e. Will not have access to backup human resources in the event of
emergencies
f. May be seen by CHAD as impingement upon its catchment area
(would have to negotiate with CHAD to service the River John “arm”)
g. May be seen by CTCL as impingement upon its catchment area (will
have to negotiate with CTCL and/or the Province to release the
Tatamagouche catchment area)
8.1.2
100% Owned and operated by CTCL
B) A 100% Owned and operated by CTCL from its base in Truro
 Pros:
a. Efficient use of resources already in existence
 Dispatch personnel already trained
 Administration already in place
 HR management, drivers, managers, dispatchers
 Marketing
b. Additional vehicle and human resources availability and deployment in
unexpected & emergency situations
c. Vehicle could be located in and dedicated to the Tatamagouche
community
 Cons:
a. May not be as well received by the community because of the perception
that it is owned and operated by “outsiders”
b. Will be managed from outside the community” by those currently
responsible for serving the proposed CTCL catchment area but not doing
it well….what will change?
c. Dispatcher may not be familiar with local geography of the proposed
catchment area to be served
d. Potential for not giving sufficient priority to needs of the Tatamagouche
community when conflicts in the use of vehicles arise
e. May be seen by CHAD as impingement upon its catchment area (would
have to negotiate the River John “arm”)
8.1.3
“Branch” of CTCL
C) A “Branch” operation of CTCL with separate “TATA Transit” branding, a
local manager, local dispatcher, local drivers, a dedicated vehicle owned by
CTCL and a position on CTCL’s Board.
Page 22 of 50


8.1.4
Pros:
a. Take advantage of the experienced administrative staff of CTCL for:
 HR management, drivers, managers, dispatchers
 Marketing
b. Efficient use of resources already in existence at CTCL
c. Local management in the community
d. Vehicle physically located in the community
e. Local drivers from the community
f. Closer to the end-user of the Transit service and better able to serve
their needs
g. More aware of the geography of the area being served
h. Local branding such as “TATA Transit” so community can perceive it
as being “their” service.
i. Could have access to backup resources from CTCL….vehicle and
personnel…in the event of emergencies
j. Could have representation on CTCL Board for optimal communication
and cross pollination of ideas and idea generation
Cons:
a. Risk that if not well promoted that it may still be seen by the
community as owned by “outsiders”
b. May be seen by CHAD as an impingement upon its catchment area
(would have to negotiate the River John “arm” with CHAD)
Volunteer-based “Rideshare”
D) An Informal, volunteer-based “rideshare” operation in Tatamagouche. This
is essentially an online clearing house between people with cars who
provide rides and those who need a ride.
 Pros:
a. Would be seen as a local initiative
b. Cost of a drive for the passenger could potentially be reduced as rider
would pay driver directly
c. Vehicles provided by volunteers
 Cons:
a. Managing such a system could be a significant challenge
b. Risks and liability would likely be higher in providing a “safe” service
particularly to those customers who are wheel-chair bound
c. Insurance may be an issue
d. Would require significant coordinating effort in maintaining a consistent
and qualified pool of volunteers with reliable vehicles who could
provide reliable and consistent service
e. May be difficult finding a qualified dedicated volunteer driver to operate
the accessible vehicle when required
Page 23 of 50
8.2 Capital Investment
After considering the appropriate size of vehicle for this market, whether a 4, 7 or 9
passenger vehicle, it is proposed that a 9 passenger accessible van be acquired to service
TATA Transit’s catchment area. This sized vehicle would be necessary to accommodate
groups attending training sessions at the two large training centres, seniors and others for
group outings as well as local passengers.
Although there may be a requirement for a small vehicle to service individuals and/or small
groups of passengers in the catchment area, it would require a larger vehicle to
accommodate the larger numbers of passengers going between the Tatamagouche Centre
and Dorje Denma Ling at one end to either Truro or the Halifax airport at the other. Also it is
common for courses at these two training centres to have “free days” or “free half days” for
participants so they can go into Tatamagouche to shop, visit the museum, have a nice
“restaurant” meal and a beer or glass of wine and/or explore the countryside and the
beaches which would commonly be done in small groups. And because of the close
proximity, several runs can be made into Tatamagouche quite easily from the training
centres.
For very large groups going longer distances it could call upon CTCL to provide a bus.
Although TATA Transit could work with Willow Lodge to also work with their very small 4
passenger vehicle….it would have to overcome Willow Lodge’s restriction on who could be
transported as discussed elsewhere in this report. It will be important to have someone
located in the local market to maintain constant contact with the training centres to maximize
the transportation opportunities there.
Page 24 of 50
VEHICLE COST AND PROPOSED FINANCING
4
Passenger
Van
7
Passenger
Van
9
Passenger
Van
Estimated Cost vehicle chassis
$46,100
Cost to modify for accessibility
29,272
HST on Chassis only
6,915
Total Cost of Accessible Vehicle
$48,087
$53,853
$82,287
Total Cost Rounded to
$48,000
$54,000
$82,300
Grant from ATAP – 66%
31,680
35,640
$54,318
Community Fundraising
16,320
18,360
27,982
Total Funding Required
$48,000
$54,000
$82,300
VEHICLE FUNDING
8.3 Projected Revenues and Operating Expenses
The following is an analysis and comparison of the two most realistic and most feasible
potential options:
1) Option 1 (“A” above) – full “stand-alone” operation based in Tatamagouche
with:
 a part-time driver with wages of $15.00/hr for 434 hours per year, total wages
of $6,500
 Part-time dispatcher $10,000 per year
 Part-time manager $10,000 per year
 (Manager & Dispatcher could be the same person)
2) Option 2 (“C” above) – Operating as a “Branch” of CTCL with:
 A part-time driver wages $15.00/hr for 434 hours per year based in
Tatamagouche, total wages $6,500
 Dispatcher services partially integrated with CTCL with a salary of $5,000/yr
 Paid part-time local manager $5,000/yr based in Tatamagouche
 (Dispatcher & Manager could be the same person)
Page 25 of 50
8.4 Financial analysis
8.4.1
Projections - Option 1 – “Stand Alone” Operation
As can be seen below the “Stand Alone” option does not appear to be sustainable over the
long-term. The corresponding break-even analysis for the “Stand Alone” option indicates that
in order to breakeven on a “cash” basis it would have to generate combined fare and subsidy
revenue of approximately $47,500 per year. The financial analysis above indicates that a
catchment area the size of TATA Transit’s would likely only generate fare revenue of
approximately $7,000 per year once well established in the market. This would indicate that
TATA Transit would have to constantly fundraise to the tune of approximately $40,500 per
year just to cover its operating expenses. In addition to this they would have to fundraise to
replace the vehicle at the end of its useful life in the amount of approximately $28,000….the
portion of the capital cost not covered by an ATAP grant. This capital fundraising would
amount to an average of approximately $4,700 per year for 6 years giving a total annual
fundraising requirement of approximately $45,200 per year on average. This would require a
major commitment by management to sustain this level of fundraising energy.
8.4.2
Projections - Option 2 – “Branch” Operation of CTCL
Although the projections below indicate that the “Stand Alone” business model in
Tatamagouche would be more expensive to operate it may be possible to achieve a less
costly but sustainable “Branch” business model based in Tatamagouche by making use of
the resources of CTCL to achieve synergies and cost savings in operating costs,
management, administration, dispatch, insurance…including directors’, business and vehicle
insurance, professional fees, office supplies, marketing & advertising and bank charges.
Quantifying the details of all of the potential synergies are beyond the scope of this Feasibility
Study and would have to be explored and quantified with the cooperation and support of
CTCL and then quantified in a detailed Business Plan.
Should the “Branch” business model concept be accepted, the projections below indicate
that…with estimated cost savings…the net incremental annual cost of establishing TATA
Transit as part of CTCL would be in the range of approximately $27,000 in the start-up year
and between $23,500 and $25,000 annually thereafter as set out in the projections below.
Currently CTCL and CHAD are receiving operating subsidies from the Province of Nova
Scotia to provide affordable, accessible transportation to everyone within the Counties of
Colchester and Pictou respectively….including the proposed TATA Transit catchment area.
These projections are predicated upon CTCL (TATA Transit division) qualifying for an initial
capital grant from ATAP aggregating $54,318 towards the purchase and modification of an
accessible 9 passenger vehicle plus an annual allocation of operating subsidies currently
being paid to CTCL and CHAD aggregating approximately $27,000 in the start-up year as
well as an allocation annually thereafter to be used to fund TATA Transit.
Page 26 of 50
We suggest that a reasonable basis for the allocation of this $27,000 between CTCL and
CHAD would be based on population being serviced…as follows:
River John
Tatamagouche
Total
Population in Catchment Area
% of population
457
2,956
3,413
13.5%
86.5%
100%
Allocation of Net
Incremental Costs
$ 3,645
$23,355
$27,000
To quantify the financial implications of the various scenarios discussed herein we present two
sets of projections below:
A) – Fully Operational The first Illustrates the financial impact of a “stand-alone”
operation (column 1) as well as the financial impact of a “Branch” operation (Columns 2
and 3)……both reflect the long-term view of the viability of the operations once they
have reached maturity and are well established in the market. Within this schedule the
“Branch” illustration shows two levels of fare revenue….a high of .41 rides per capita
and a low of .27 rides per capita.
B) – Start-up The second schedule illustrates the likely financial reality during the startup period when the local market is still in the process of being developed but TATA
Transit has not yet reached its optimal level of maturity within its proposed catchment
area.
Page 27 of 50
8.4.3
Fully Operational
Please note that following projections show 3 scenarios all of which assume a fully operational
and mature TATA Transit after the initial start-up or “burn in” period has been completed:
1. TATA Transit “Stand-alone” with fare revenue based on .41 rides per capita
2. TATA Transit Branch “A” (high range) with fare revenue based on .41 rides per capita
3. TATA Transit Branch “B” (low range) with fare revenue based on .27 rides per capita
Because of the uncertainty associated with estimating initial and sustained fare revenues we
have presented a high and a low range of potential incremental fare revenues in the
proposed catchment area at .41 and .277 rides per capita. The .41 rides per capita is what
CTCL, a long-established service, achieved in 2013/2014 and the .27 is the rides per capita
achieved by the Cheticamp Transit System in Cape Breton in that same year. Cheticamp is the
most recent community transit system and therefore an indication of what level of rides per
capita can be achieved by a new community transit system serving a relatively sparse
population base. The source of these rides per capita figures are presented in section 3.2
above.
The Columns to the right in the projections below are calculations for illustration purposes, of
the breakeven points for each of the three scenarios…..with a calculation of fare revenues that
would be required in order for TATA Transit to breakeven without any operating subsidies.
Comparing the breakeven points with the estimated revenues in the columns to the left clearly
illustrate that could never be achieved within the proposed catchment area given the size of the
population. Therefore illustrating that significant operating subsidies are a reality of all public
transit.
7
Nova Scotia Transit Research Incentive Program (NS-TRIP) – Feasibility Study/Needs assessment Guide (NS Dept of
Municipal Affairs July 2014)
Page 28 of 50
8.4.3.1.
Fully Operational Year Projections with Break-Even Calculations
(A) SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED INCREMENTAL COSTS
FOR A FULLY OPERATIONAL YEAR
TATA TRANSIT
SUMMARY SCHEDULE OF EATIMATED NET INCREMENTAL COSTS OF TATA TRANSIT SERVICE
FOR A FULLY OPERATIONAL YEAR
Stand Alone
REVENUE
FARE REVENUE
CHARTER & CONTRACT REVENUE
ADV & OTHER REVENUE
GAS TAX REBATE
TOTAL REVENUE
VEHICLE EXPENSES
DRIVERS CELL PHONES
REPAIRS - VEHICLES
INSURANCE - VEHICLES
VEHICLE REGISTRATION
DRIVER WAGES
FUEL
EMPLOYEE BENEFITS - DRIVER WAGES
CONTRIBUTION MARGIN
GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES
ADMINISTRATIVE
TRAVEL
DISPATCHER WAGES
PROFESSIONAL FEES, SERVICE CONTRACT & CONSULTING
OFFICE SUPPLIES
MARKETING & ADVERTISING
MANAGEMENT SALARIES
BANK CHARGES
EMPLOYEE BENEFITS - ADMIN WAGES
MISCELLANEOUS
TELEPHONE & WEB
RENT
INSURANCE - BOARD OF DIRECTORS & BUSINESS
TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE
NET INCREMENTAL COST OF TATA TRANSIT SERVICE
PROJECTIONS
Branch "A"
Branch "B"
.41 Rides/capita
.41 Rides/capita
.27 Rides/capita
$
$
$
BREAKEVEN
Stand Alone
Branch "A"
.41 Rides/capita .41 Rides/capita
$
$
Branch "B"
.27 Rides/capita
$
6,995
504
1,500
328
9,327
6,995
504
1,500
328
9,327
4,608
504
1,500
208
6,820
47,362
504
1,500
328
49,694
30,310
504
1,500
328
32,642
29,351
504
1,500
208
31,563
600
4,000
2,000
30
6,095
2,916
552
16,193
-6,866
600
4,000
1,500
30
6,095
2,916
552
15,693
-6,366
600
4,000
1,500
30
6,096
1,836
552
14,614
-7,794
600
4,000
2,000
30
6,095
15,347
552
16,193
33,501
600
4,000
1,500
30
6,095
9,928
552
15,693
16,949
600
4,000
1,500
30
6,096
8,208
552
14,614
16,949
1,200
10,000
1,200
1,200
3,600
10,000
600
1,801
600
900
0
2,400
33,501
-40,367
1,200
5,000
650
600
1,800
5,000
300
899
600
900
0
0
16,949
-23,315
1,200
5,000
650
600
1,800
5,000
300
899
600
900
0
0
16,949
-24,743
1,200
10,000
1,200
1,200
3,600
10,000
600
1,801
600
900
0
2,400
33,501
0
1,200
5,000
650
600
1,800
5,000
300
899
600
900
0
0
16,949
0
1,200
5,000
650
600
1,800
5,000
300
899
600
900
0
0
16,949
0
Page 29 of 50
8.4.4
Start-up
The following schedule summarizes estimated revenues and expenses and net incremental
costs of TATA Transit as a “Branch” operation of CTCL during a start-up year. This scenario
uses a .138 rides per capita when estimating fare revenue which is the average experienced
by the newest start-up Community Transit Services in 2013/14.
These projections indicate a net incremental cost for a start-up year of $26,439 or close to
$27,000.
8
Nova Scotia Transit Research Incentive Program (NS-TRIP) – Feasibility Study/Needs assessment Guide (NS Dept. of
Municipal Affairs July 2014)
Page 30 of 50
8.4.4.1.
Start-up Year Projections with Break-Even Calculation
(B) SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED INCREMENTAL COSTS
FOR A START-UP YEAR
TATA TRANSIT
SUMMARY SCHEDULE OF EATIMATED NET INCREMENTAL COSTS OF TATA TRANSIT SERVICE
FOR A START-UP YEAR
PROJECTIONS
Branch
.13 Rides/capita
$
REVENUE
FARE REVENUE
CHARTER & CONTRACT REVENUE
ADV & OTHER REVENUE
GAS TAX REBATE
TOTAL REVENUE
VEHICLE EXPENSES
DRIVERS CELL PHONES
REPAIRS - VEHICLES
INSURANCE - VEHICLES
VEHICLE REGISTRATION
POWER
DRIVER WAGES
FUEL
EMPLOYEE BENEFITS - DRIVER WAGES
CONTRIBUTION MARGIN
GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES
ADMINISTRATIVE
TRAVEL
DISPATCHER WAGES
PROFESSIONAL FEES, SERVICE CONTRACT & CONSULTING
OFFICE SUPPLIES
MARKETING & ADVERTISING
MANAGEMENT SALARIES
BANK CHARGES
EMPLOYEE BENEFITS - ADMIN WAGES
MISCELLANEOUS
TELEPHONE & WEB
RENT
INSURANCE - BOARD OF DIRECTORS & BUSINESS
TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE
NET INCREMENTAL COST OF TATA TRANSIT SERVICE
BREAKEVEN
Branch
.13 Rides/capita
$
2,220
504
1,500
120
4,344
28,659
504
1,500
120
30,783
600
4,000
1,500
30
0
6,096
1,056
552
13,834
-9,490
600
4,000
1,500
30
0
6,096
7,195
552
13,834
16,949
1,200
5,000
650
600
1,800
5,000
300
899
600
900
0
0
16,949
-26,439
1,200
5,000
650
600
1,800
5,000
300
899
600
900
0
0
16,949
0
Page 31 of 50
8.4.5
Reality Check on Fare Revenue Calculations
The population of TATA Transit’s catchment area is 3,413. This is the number of full
time residents within the geographic catchment area. The calculation of the number
of rides per capita, the common basis for calculating ridership, is calculated by
dividing the total number of rides reported by individual Transit Services, by the total
population within their respective catchment areas. In 2013/14 CTCL achieved .41
rides per capita within its catchment area which has a population of 50,968…..which
also includes TATA Transit’s catchment area’s population (of 3,413) despite the fact
that CTCL’s transit service is virtually non-existent within TATA Transit’s catchment
area. Any increase in rides in Tatamagouche would increase CTCL’s rides per capita.
The calculation of rides per capita is a broad-based calculation taking the total rides
of individual transit services for a year and dividing that by the total population of the
their catchment area. This calculation reflects the average rides per capita but does
not reflect the fact that within the total catchment area there are some geographical
“pockets” that have a higher than average rides per capita and other areas have a
lower than average rides per capita. The calculation has a negative impact on the
overall rides per capita when some pockets are not being serviced at all….yet the
population of those pockets are included in the calculation’s population base…which
is the case with TATA Transit.
Tatamagouche is a unique community in many ways which needs to be taken into
account when attempting to predict the likely long-term….as well as the startup….level of fare revenues.
Tatamagouche is one of those communities that has the potential to eventually
achieve….or even exceed…the average potential .41 rides per capita as set out in
this feasibility report.
Two key factors that give Tatamagouche that potential is:
1) Its location as a regional community with two large training facilities and
2) Its high proportion of summer residents
Neither of these two factors are reflected in the population base of 3,413 permanent
residents. If these two factors are considered in the potential “effective” population to
be served, it is quite likely that the rides per capita would be far higher than .41.
During our research a number of people indicated that the population doubled in the
summer as a result of “summer people” vacationing in the area. This doubling would
indicate an increase of approximately 3,400 people within the catchment area. In the
table below we used a conservative estimate of 1,000.
Page 32 of 50
The “Effective Population” within TATA Transit’s Catchment Area is estimated to
be the permanent population base plus information received during interviews with
management of the Tatamagouche Centre and Dorje Denma Ling as well as an
estimate of “Summer People” as follows:
Effective Population:
Permanent Population Base
Tatamagouche Centre - Trainees
Dorje Denma Ling - Trainees
Estimate # of Summer People
Total Effective population base
3,413
5,000
800
1,000
10, 213
This Table illustrates that the effective population base (of 10,213) that TATA Transit
will be serving within its catchment area is approximately three times its official
permanent population base of (of 3,413).
To put this into perspective if the trainees at the Tatamagouche Centre and at Dorje
Denma Ling and a conservative estimate of “summer people” are included in the
catchment area population to be serviced by Tata Transit then instead of rides per
capita of .13 (Start-up); .41 (high range) and .27 (low range) as set out in this
report……the rides per capita would be .04 (Start-up); .14 (high range) and .09 (low
range) respectively…..well below what is reflected in the report indicating that the
projected revenues are reasonable or potentially understated.
TATA Transit, with a local manager on the ground working within the community, will
be much more effective at developing the local market than can be done from a
distance outside the catchment area. With an effective marketing program….such as
staying in touch on a regular basis with management of the Tatamagouche Centre
and Dorje Denma Ling to find out when courses are being scheduled as well as
having the two centres include TATA Transit’s brochures in any mailouts and
including details in any emails to potential trainees etc., etc…..significant rides per
capita can be achieved.
This would indicate that the estimated high range of rides per capita as set out in this
report are in fact conservative estimates and reasonable given the realities of the
effective population within TATA Transit’s market area.
With the uncertainty involved in estimating potential revenues….particularly for a
start-up operation with no historical data upon which to base projections….it is
reasonable to present a high and low range of estimated revenues rather than a
single estimate. To project a single estimate of revenue gives the reader a false
sense that there is a level of precision that in fact does not exist.
We feel that the estimates as presented in the report are reasonable.
Page 33 of 50
8.5 Governance Structure
It was the intention that Neighbours Helping Neighbours, the sponsoring organization for this
Community Transit project, would incorporate a not-for-profit stand-alone corporation under
the Nova Scotia Societies Act should the project be determined to be feasible. However
should they decide to operate as a “branch” operation of CTCL as recommended in this
study, then TATA Transit would be owned by and incorporated into CTCL’s existing legal
corporate structure.
The proposed Organization Chart will be as follows:
CTCL Board of
Directors
Manager
Drivers and Dispatcher
9
Summary and Recommendations
9.1 Summary
Based on the analysis above it appears that a “Stand Alone” business model would not be
feasible due to the small size of TATA Transit’s catchment area and the fragmentation of its
market.
Having said that it does appear that a “Branch” business model with TATA Transit operating
effectively as a separately branded “Branch” of CTCL with an allocation of operating subsidy
aggregating $25,000 annually, would be viable.
9.2 Recommendations
Based on the research and analysis included in this study, management has agreed with the
recommendation that a “Branch” business model for TATA Transit would be feasible and
wishes to pursue this option.
10 Next Steps
The following steps are recommended to proceed with the establishment of TATA Transit:
1) Present this Feasibility Study report to NS-TRIP for consideration
Page 34 of 50
2) Present this Feasibility Study to CTCL as an offering of an opportunity to help them meet
their mandate to provide locally-based, effective, efficient and cost-effective
transportation to the travelling public within the proposed TATA Transit catchment area
3) Discuss with and seek the co-operation of the management of CTCL on potential overall
cost savings and sharing of resources
4) Negotiate with CHAD for the release of the River John “arm” of the proposed TATA
Transit catchment area in the River John area to CTCL or negotiate a proportional
allocation of their funding relating to the River John area set out in the proposed TATA
Transit catchment area.
5) Negotiate the capital and allocation of operating subsidies with the Province under its
Community Transit programs
6) Work with CTCL to make an application to NS-TRIP for funding to complete a detailed
Business Plan
7) Work with the management of CTCL to prepare a detailed and realistic business plan
which will quantify and provide details on how TATA Transit will achieve its objectives.
Page 35 of 50
11 Appendices
Page 36 of 50
11.1 APPENDIX “A” - Key Assumptions used in the financial projections
The following are the key assumptions used in the preparation of the financial projections:
CAPITAL ASSETS
1. Vehicle: A 9-passenger accessible vehicle with a chassis cost of $46,100, cost to
modify for accessibility of $29,272 and HST on the chassis only of $6,915 for a total
vehicle cost of $82,287….rounded to $82,300.
2. Capital grant: It is anticipated that TATA Transit will qualify for a capital grant of
$54,318 or 66% of the capital cost of $82,300 from ATAP.
3. Capital Fundraising: It is anticipated that the unfunded portion of the initial vehicle’s
cost aggregating $27,982, would be raised within the community from local
businesses, individual donations, sponsorships and other fundraising initiatives.
EARNINGS STATEMENT
1. Fare Revenue: Fare Revenues of $6,995 (high range) and $4,608 (low range) were
based on the average of .41 rides per-capita and .27 rides per capita in the catchment
area as experienced by other Community Transit services as set out in the NS-TRIP
Feasibility Study/Needs Assessment Guide, the population within the catchment area
of 3,413 and an estimated average fare per ride of $5.00. Using these numbers
produces estimated Fare Revenues of $6,995. (3,413 X .41 X $5.00 = $6,995) and
$4,608 (3,413 X .27 X $5.00 = $4,608) for Branch “A” (high range) and Branch “B”
(low range) respectively.
2. Charter and Contract Revenue: It was estimated that TATA Transit could generate a
minimum of approximately $500 per year in charter and contract revenue.
3. Advertising and Other Revenues: It was estimated that TATA Transit could generate
a minimum of approximately $1,500 per year in advertising on the vehicle and other
revenue.
4. Gas Tax Rebate: This is the gas tax rebate based upon 11.3% of the cost of fuel
purchases for the vehicle
5. Driver Wages: This is based upon the estimated number of hours that the driver
would spend in order to generate the fare revenue of $6,995 plus Charter & Contract
revenue of $2,004. This was calculated as follows:
Page 37 of 50
Please note that whether fare revenue is $6,995 or $4,608 it is not anticipated that
the driver’s wages would change much so we presented the drivers wages at
$6,095 under both Branch “A” (high range) and Branch “B” (low range) scenarios.
Calculation of Driver’s Wages
Fare Revenue
Divided by average fare
Number of trips
Average length of trip
Paid Km per year
Total km as a % of paid km
Total km driven
Average speed
Total Hours driven (fares)
Driver’s wages (Fares)
Driver’s wages (Charter & Contract)
Total Driver’s wages
Population 3,413 X .41 X $5 = $6,995
$6,995 ÷ 5 = 1,399
1,399 X 6.5 = 9,093
Experienced by another community
Transit System
9,093 ÷ .60 = 15,155
15,155 ÷ 40 = 379
379hrs X $15.00/hr = $5,687
27 hrs X $15.00/hr = $408
$6,995
$5.00
1,399
6.5km
9,093
60%
15,155
40km/hr
379
$5,687
$ 408
$6,095
6. Fuel: Total fuel cost of $2,916 was calculated as total km driven 16,235km (15,155km
for fares + 1,080km for charter and contract = 16,235km) X $.18/km = $2,916. Please
note that this represents 13.5L/100km at a fuel cost of $1.33/L. This is a conservative
estimate since the current price of gas at the time of the writing of this report was
$1.00/L and reduced proportionally in the Branch “B” scenario.
7. Wages – Dispatcher and Manager: The wages for a dispatcher and a manager were
estimated based on the level of effort that would be required given the size of the
proposed TATA Transit operation as follows:
Dispatcher
Manager
Total
“Stand-Alone”
$10,000
$10,000
$20,000
“Branch”
$5,000
$5,000
$10,000
Please note that because this operation would be a small operation it would be possible
for the dispatcher and the manager to be the same person. Consideration would be given
to these positions being filled by a retired…or semi-retired person.
8. Insurance – Board of Directors and Business: It is estimated that, based on the
experience of other Community Transit Services, Board insurance could be
approximately $1,500 and business liability insurance could be approximately $900
for a total of $2,400. Should TATA Transit form part of CTCL as a “Branch” there
could be potential savings in these types of insurance or possibly there would be no
incremental insurance cost of this type at all since CTCL should already be covered.
Under the “Branch” scenario, we have assumed that there would not be an
incremental increase in either Board Insurance or liability insurance from CTCL’s
current expense Please note that vehicle insurance is shown separately in the
projections in this report.
9. Vehicle Insurance, professional fees, office supplies, marketing & advertising and
bank charges: It is estimated that these expenses would be reduced if TATA Transit
operates as a “Branch” of CTCL as opposed to a “Stand Alone” operation.
Page 38 of 50
11.2 APPENDIX “B" - Letters of Support
Page 39 of 50
11.2.1 Letter of Support – Tatamagouche Village Commission
Page 40 of 50
11.2.2 Letter of Support – Lillian Fraser memorial Hospital
Lillian Fraser Memorial Hospital
110 Blair Avenue
Tatamagouche, NS
B0K1V0
May 14, 2014
In regards to: The Nova Scotia Transit Research Incentive Program (NS-TRIP).
Dear Rene Frigault:
Planning and Development Officer
Department of Municipal Affairs
It has recently come to my attention that an organization in our community, “Neighbours Helping
Neighbours”, is attempting to secure funding in order to provide a public transportation system that
would assist with transportation for the elderly in the community. I and the staff of Lillian Fraser
Memorial Hospital see this endeavor as an amazing opportunity for the community, and fully support
this project. This service would contribute greatly to the health and wellness of our community
members in many ways. It would facilitate a call for transportation within the community that has
been in demand for a long time. For many years now we have recognized that there are a number of
transportation barriers for the elderly population in this area. People often struggle with trying to get
to local appointments at our facility for a number of reasons. Some of the most common reasons are
for things like provider appointments, lab/DI exams, Medical day unit procedures, telehealth
sessions. We also frequently encounter patients that are unable to get transportation to appointments
at regional or tertiary sites as well and then have to rely on the EHS system to access these. This, in
turn, puts added pressure on this scarce resource and increases response times to true Emergency
calls across the province, not to mention costing the province huge amounts of health care dollars.
With overall community focus shifting to health promotion, I see a steadily increasing amount of
Page 41 of 50
activities being offered within the community that are not often well attended because of
transportation barriers as well. As manager of our community hospital and primary health care
center, as well as a fellow community member, I would be happy to support this endeavor in any way
that we are able, to ensure its success and its utilization to its full potential. Some of the ways that we
would do this might be: Helping with public education through health promotion activities, assisting
with fundraising efforts, increasing awareness of the service by advertisement and referral from our
facility, providing meeting space for the project team as needed, and ensuring ease of access to and
from our facility on an ongoing basis. We are also committed to supporting our community members
throughout the planning and implementation stages of this project and are open to further discussion
on what may be needed.
Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions regarding this letter of support. I am
very pleased that you are considering this project and look forward to observing the many wonderful
benefits that this service would bring to the people of the North Shore Area.
Thank you Very Much,
Barbara Cook, BScN, RN
Site Manager Lillian Fraser Memorial Hospital
Colchester East Hants Health Authority
Page 42 of 50
11.2.3 Letter of Support – Tatamagouche Centre
Page 43 of 50
11.2.4 Letter of Support – Dorje Denma Ling
Page 44 of 50
11.2.5 Letter of Support – District 7 Councillor
Page 45 of 50
11.2.6 Letter of Support – North Shore Community Health Board
Lorinda Brinkhurst, Chair May 13, 2014
To: Rene Frigault
Planning and Development Officer
Department of Municipal Affairs
The Community Health Board Annual Plan has identified the lack of affordable and accessible
transportation as an issue that presents a barrier to access to health services and other wellness
oriented activity in the North Shore Area. The Colchester East Hants District Health Authority supports
our efforts to continue to seek solutions regarding transportation.
The North Shore Area Community Health Board fully supports the efforts of “Neighbors Helping
Neighbors” to seek funding for a transportation feasibility study from the Nova Scotia Transit Research
Incentive Program as a first step towards a solution to the transportation barrier in the area.
Sincerely,
Lorinda Brinkhurst
Page 46 of 50
11.2.7 Letter of Support – River John Community Action Society
Page 47 of 50
11.2.8 Letter of Support – Open Doors
May 12, 2014
Nova Scotia-Transit Research Incentive Program
We support the application by the Neighbours Helping Neighbours Society for a Needs Assessment
& Feasibility Study for Community Transportation in the Tatamagouche area of Nova Scotia.
Our centre provides support to unemployed and underemployed individuals in their job search;
skills development funding and we also provide workshops. In this function we have dealt with
individuals who are faced with transportation issues, both short term and long term. Unfortunately
this area does not have public transportation, or a taxi service and individuals are faced with the
frustration of locating an individual willing to drive them.
Our support is behind the study to determine the operational and financial considerations for a
transportation service in the Tatamagouche and surrounding area, as we see a need for affordable
transportation.
Yours truly,
Christine Pankhurst
Christine Pankhurst
Manager
Page 48 of 50
11.2.9 Letter of Support - Sharon United Church Tatamagouche Pastoral Charge
To Whom It May Concern,
The question of how do people get around if they don't drive is a key issue which
resonates with many citizens in our rural community. Certainly the availability of
community transit offers increased independence and is a must in rural areas especially
when the only alternative is relying on adult children or neighbours or simply staying
home.
We at Sharon United Church have a number of individuals who could be called to assist
but the volunteer base is rapidly being eroded and often seniors are reluctant to ask for
assistance for fear of being a burden. It is also a concern that many people cannot afford
to own a car and consequently must rely on the kindness of family, friends and
neighbours to assist them when they have various levels of need for transportation. For
all who experience concerns about travel it is a challenge as there is really no public
transit or provision for it in Tatamagouche and surrounding areas.
For many elderly people who are no longer able to drive and have had their licences
revoked, it is very difficult to get from point A to B easily even for something as simple
as buying groceries.
Mike's Foodland had a program where seniors could call in their grocery lists, they would
be filled by employees at Foodland and delivered to their homes. The program served
approximately 39 families. With Mike"s retirement the program may no longer exist and
many elderly are not able to walk to the grocery store or carry groceries back home.
There is no means of transport in place to assist them even if they could afford it. We as a
church group have talked at length about taking over this grocery service that Mike had
previously provided but it would require a good deal of support from the already aging
members of our congregation. I am not sure that we have the manpower to accomplish
such an ambitious project. There are a number of problems and concerns that I have and
we need to find ways of providing the infrastructure to allow seniors and indeed all
individuals who do not have vehicles, the freedom of choice when it comes to
transportation.
Certainly this is an issue that needs addressing and it is not going to become any easier.
Neighbours Helping Neighbours are applying for government funding to conduct a
feasibility study in regards to public transport on the North Shore and I heartily support
their initiative and this may be an important start. But what is more obvious to me is that
what we need is ACTION in an attempt to resolve the numerous problems facing all
citizens not just seniors who have transportation issues.
Peter Mattatall
Chair--Sharon United Church
Tatamagouche Pastoral Charge
[email protected]
Page 49 of 50
11.2.10 Letter of Support – Food Bank
In working with the Tatamagouche Foodbank, we have seen a number of issues arise regarding
transportation needs. Many of our clients are without viable transportation and must walk to our
facilities which are housed in the basement of Tatamagouche Gospel Hall, 30 Blair Avenue,
Tatamagouche. Others rely on the kindness of friends and family; some have mobility issues.
Most of our clients do not have the resources to provide their own transportation or pay high fees
for any services which might presently be available. This issue also presents itself in regard to
doctor's appointments, hospital visits, social events in the community and surrounding areas and
also contact with family. Many of these families would benefit greatly from a reliable,
economical, readily available means of transportation within the village and surrounding areas.
We hope that this study will further demonstrate this need within our community and be the
means of initiating a solution. We feel we live in a very vibrant community and filling this
transportation need will only make it more so.
Signed, volunteers of Tatmagouche Foodbank.
Page 50 of 50

TATA Transit Feasibility Study

Transcription

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