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montreal 2009 phev conference
MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE J. William “Bill” Moore • Publisher, Editor in Chief EVWORLD.COM [email protected] MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE ARE WE READY FOR 2012? MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Take your pick on what will happen on December 21, 2012 A. The world will end as planets collide B. The Biblical apocalypse will begin. C. The Earth's magnetic fields will reverse. D. Singularity will occur and mankind will experience a wonderful transformational awakening. F. You'll be able to buy Fisker's new $39,000 plug-in hybrid sedan. MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE 2009 FRANKFURT AUTO SHOW: Above: Renault Twizy Above Right: Volkwagen E-Up! Lower Right: Reva NXG MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Largest Electric Car Order in History ABOVE: Shai Agassi announcing 100,000 EV order in Frankfurt RIGHT: Agassi with Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, Ontario Minister of International Trade Sandra Pupatello. MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE CalCars founded UC Davis PHEV Wins FutureTruck 2000 WKTEC? Film Premiers Gen II Prius Intro’d Tesla Motors Founded Fisker Karma Intro’d EnergyCS Tesla PHEV Intro’d Volt Intro’d Leaf Intro’d Fisker Karma Delv’d BMW Mini E BYD E6 100K EV Coda Order Delv’d BYD F3DM Qdrop Batt X Volvo PHEV Volt Ford Prius Launch Focus EV PHEV 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 PNGV Cxl’d EV1 Leases Cxl’d Ranger EV Vigil Project Better Place Coulomb Tech Ford PHEV Tesla Delv’d 2001 2002 EV1 Vigil Hyundai Kia PHEVs Buffett Invst BYD Obama 1.5M PHEVs France RFP 50K EVs Congress Buys 1st HEV Truck BP Infrast Deploy Nissan BEV MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE 2012 In Our EV World • Nissan launches LEAF consumer sales • Better Place operational in Israel and Denmark • Ford introduces Escape PHEV • Toyota brings out Prius PHEV • Volvo introduces C-30 PHEV • Hyundai & Kia roll-out of PHEVs in N. America • Bright Automotive plans production of IDEA EV. • Tesla Model S deliveries under way • GM ups Volt production to 60,000 • Volkswagen ramps up for E-Up! production • $39,000 Fisker sedan starts production MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE 2012 and BEYOND: The Projections Report Buyer: 600,000 PHEVs by 2015 CSM Worldwide: 400,000 BEVs, PHEVs by 2015 Bosch: 1.5 million world market by 2015 BEVs, PHEVs, HEVs Parts OEMS: 500,000-800,000 PHEVs & BEVs in 2015/2016 MIT: 10 million electric cars by 2016 Nissan: 5-7 million (10%) world market for BEVs by 2020 JD Powers: 2.25M BEVs, PHEVS, HEVs sold annually in EU by 2020 President Barack Obama wants 1.5 million PHEVs by 2015. MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Over a Barrel : Oil’s Economic Conundrum $70+ oil stimulates hunt for alternatives, including PHEVs BUT.... Also places a drag on the global economy that slows investments in those alternatives. “If [oil is] less than $70, weʼre going to have a problem. If [itʼs] at $200 the economic equationʼs very easy, and if itʼs more than $200, even easier.” Carlos Ghosn 2009 Frankfurt Auto Show MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE The Window of Opportunity • ʻGoldilockʼ Moment in Oil Prices • Favorable Political Climate Globally • Economic Incentives • Industry Necessity • Available Technology • Public Acceptance How long will it remain open? MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Survey Says.... One-in-three Americans interested in buying an electric car as their next automobile -Ipsos and Better Place 48% of those polled were "extremely" or "very" interested in purchasing a plug-in electric vehicle -Pike Research Four-in-five U.S. adults believe the United States must become a leader in hybrid vehicles. Johnson Controls MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Bain & Company survey of 4,000 people in eight countries, including the U.S., China, Japan and Germany, finds that highincome buyers are ready to buy all-electric vehicles as a second vehicle for short trips. MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE What Could Derail the Train? MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE RESOURCES: • Lithium resources availability • Rare earth elements availability • Oil demand vs. supply [Peak Oil] “Under investment in mature fields, rising resource nationalism, and the cost and difficulty of retrieving oil from discoveries in ultra-deep water could see global production capacity fall to 87.3 million bpd by 2015.” Iain Reid Macquarie Investment Bank MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE ENERGY: • Finite coal reserves • Aging nuclear plants • Depleting oil & gas fields • Decommissioned hydro plants • Fragile power grid • Intermittency of renewables MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE INFRASTRUCTURE: • Inadequate local electric load capacity • Non-existent public chargers • Outmoded building codes • Divergent charging standards • Dumb electrical circuits • Lack of Vehicle-to-Grid capability MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE POLICIES: • Lack of adequate financial incentives • Unfavorable tax structures • Regulatory constraints • Inadequate appreciation of approaching consequences of fossil energy depletion. MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE A New Wrinkle: Embodied Energy “A handful of microchips can have as much embodied energy as a car.” “It takes 800 kilograms of fuel to produce one kilogram of microchips.” “The energy requirements of semiconductor and nanomaterial manufacturing techniques are... up to 6 orders of magnitude above those of conventional manufacturing processes.” Source: “The monster footprint of digital technology” -- http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49730 MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE The High Energy Cost of Efficiency MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE The Great Green Paradox In order to more efficiently use energy, will we consume ever-increasing amounts of energy? • Smart Grids • Plug-in Electric Cars •Intelligent Transit Systems • Global Digital Communications and Data Farms • Giant Wind Farms and Silicon Solar Parks The Real Challenge of the 21st Century Will Be to Learn How to Benignly, Responsibly Utilize More Energy, Not Less. MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Is There A Mr. Fusion in Your Future? MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Maybe Tomorrow, Definitely Today Drs. Stanley Pons and Martin Fleishmann: co-discoverers of the as-yet-unexplained process known as “cold fusion.” Toronto wind turbine. Ontario passes first comprehensive feed-in tariff for wind and solar in North America. MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Dreams pass into the reality of action. From the actions stems the dream again; and this interdependence produces the highest form of living. -- Anaïs Nin MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE EV World Finally Gets Plugged In! Kim Adelman Plug In Conversion Corp. “She Who Must Be Obeyed” MONTREAL 2009 PHEV CONFERENCE Merci, mes amis!
