THE LATIN AMERICA FOUNDRY INDUSTRY
Transcription
THE LATIN AMERICA FOUNDRY INDUSTRY
1 THE LATIN AMERICA FOUNDRY INDUSTRY Brazilian Foundry Association – ABIFA Remo De Simone – president Sept/2014 IFF - 01 2 MAIN TOPICS 1) Latin America in figures 2) Infrastructure 3) Cast Metal in Latin America and Worldwide 4) Cast Metal - Characteristics 5) Exports – Evaluation 6) Trends of Latin American Foundry Industry IFF - 02 3 IN LATIN AMERICA, ONLY THREE COUNTRIES HAVE AN ESTABLISHED FOUNDRY INDUSTRY. TOGHETER WE HAVE: A POPULATION OF 364.1 M AREA: 13.3 M km2 GDP: 4 T US$ FLEET OF VEHICLES: 75.6 M ARGENTINA BRAZIL MEXICO POPULATION 41.4 M 200.4 M 122.3 M AREA M km2 2.8 8.5 1.97 GDP 488 B US$ 2.2 T US$ 1.3 T US$ FLEET VEHICL 10.0 M 39.7 M 25.9 M IFF - 03 4 MAIN TOPICS 1) Latin America in figures 2) Infrastructure 3) Cast Metal in Latin America and Worldwide 4) Cast Metal - Characteristics 5) Exports – Evaluation 6) Trends of Latin American Foundry Industry IFF - 04 Electric Power Hydro Generation is the main source only in Brazil Argentina 4% 60% Hydro Electricity 36% Brazil 11,7% 8% 5,3% 5 Hydro Electricity Thermoelectric Thermoelectric 75% Other 31.1 GW instal capac Mexico 3% 3% 22% 72% 51,5 GW instal capac Import 95.7 GW Install Capac Hydro Electricity Other Thermoelectric Nuclear Other Source: ARG: CAMMESA BRA: ANEEL/FIRJAN MEX: CFE IFF - 4.1 6 The three countries have their main raw materials. ALUMINUM ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL HAVE OWN PRODUCTION TO SUPPLY THEIR NEED. MEXICO HAS CANADA AND USA AS MAIN SUPPLIERS PIG IRON ARGENTINA BUY PART OF SURPLUS OF BRAZIL BRAZIL IS A PRODUCER AND EXPORT ITS SURPLUS MEXICO IS THE LARGEST BUYER OF PIG IRON PRODUCED IN LATIN AMERICA BY BRAZIL. FERROUS AND NON FERROUS SCRAP IS GENERATED BY INDUSTRIAL PROCESSING. THE MARKET LOOKING ABROAD FOR IMPORTS WHEN THERE IS DIFFICULTY IN DOMESTIC MARKET IFF - 4.2 7 Brazil has a surplus in its main raw materials 100 90 100 100 100 80 70 60 50 40 50,3 30 36,5 40 20 10 0 Pig Iron Aluminum production Source: ABAL/ABRAFE/SINDIFER Ferroalloys exports IFF - 4.3 8 Brazil has a well-trained manpower • Foundry Technical Courses • Metallurgical Engineering • Foundry MBA • Foundry Engineering IFF - 4.4 9 MAIN TOPICS 1) Latin America in figures 2) Infrastructure 3) Cast Metal in Latin America and Worldwide 4) Cast Metal - Characteristics 5) Exports – Evaluation 6) Trends of Latin American Foundry Industry IFF - 05 10 Cast metal world production (ton) • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 º CHINA 2 º USA 3 º INDIA 4 º JAPAN 5 º GERMANY 6 º RUSSIA 7 º BRAZIL 8 º KOREA 9 º ITALY 10 o FRANCE 11 º MEXICO 12 º UKRAINE … 26o ARGENTINA 2012 42,500,000 12,824,960 9,344,400 5,342,837 5,214,114 4,300,000* 2,859,898 2,435,800 1,959,680 1,800,156 1,651,679* 1,532,000 166,100 Source: Modern Casting/Dec 2013 - CIFRA * 2011 data IFF - 5.1 11 Source: Modern Casting, CIFRA, ABIFA IFF - 5.2 12 MAIN TOPICS 1) Latin America in figures 2) Infrastructure 3) Cast Metal in Latin America and Worldwide 4) Cast Metal - Characteristics 5) Exports – Evaluation 6) Trends of Latin American Foundry Industry IFF - 06 13 Argentina had the lowest production in last 10 years Total production (2013) 149.2 th ton Non ferrous 34.9 th ton Source: CIFRA IFF - 6.1 14 Sales of Argentine castings are concentrated in automotive industry ARGENTINA Source: CIFRA IFF - 6.2 15 Brazil stands out with the seventh world production Total production 3,071.4 th ton (2013) Non ferrous 267.6 th ton Source: ABIFA IFF - 6.3 16 The carbon steel has the highest share among the other types of steel in Brazil - 2013 BRAZIL Source: ABIFA IFF - 6.4 73% of aluminum production goes into automotive industry. By processing we have the following distribution, in Brazil - 2013 17 133.0 th ton -> 55% BRAZIL GRAVITY INCLUDES LOW PRESSURE Source: ABIFA IFF - 6.5 18 South and Southeast Region in Brazil represent 91% of all production BRAZIL Source: ABIFA IFF - 6.6 Mexico stands out with the seventh world 19 aluminum production Total production 1,651.7 th ton (2011) Non ferrous 742.3 th ton Source: Modern Casting – Dec 2013 IFF - 6.7 20 The countries of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) have a great dependence of Automotive Industry PARTICIPATION IN PRODUCTION ARGENTINA 57% BRAZIL 58% MEXICO 75 – 80% Source: ABIFA, CIFRA, SMF IFF - 6.8 21 MAIN TOPICS 1) Latin America in figures 2) infrastructure 3) Cast Metal in Latin America and Worldwide 4) Cast Metal - Characteristics 5) Exports – Evaluation 6) Trends of Latin American Foundry Industry IFF - 07 Brazil 22 55% of total exports going to EUA – US$ - % Iron + Steel + Non Ferrous OTHER; 15% EUROPE; 16% USA; 55% SOUTH AMERICA; 14% Mexico Source: ABIFA, SMF 87% of total exports going to EUA IFF - 7.1 23 Source: ABIFA IFF - 7.2 24 MAIN TOPICS 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Brazil in figures Infrastructure Cast Metal in Latin America and Worldwide Cast Metal - Characteristics Exports – Evaluation 6) Trends of Latin American Foundry Industry IFF - 08 25 Source: ANFAVEA - Brazil IFF - 8.1 26 Shows a potential to be exploited to reach the developed countries INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE ARGENTINA 3.6 BRAZIL 5.7 MEXICO 3.6 ARG + BRA + MEX 4.8 INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE GERMANY 1.9 ITALY 1.5 SPAIN 2.1 FRANCE 2.0 PORTUGAL 2.4 Source: ANFAVEA IFF - 8.2 27 POSITIVE POINTS: • Political stability in these three countries with democratic regime • High investments planned between pre-salt, automotive sector and infrastructure, more than 80 billon US$ • Projected growth in vehicle production by 2020, almost doubling the current fleet IFF - 8.3 28 NEGATIVE POINTS: • High cost of electrical energy in Brazil that is unfeasible aluminum production • Consequences of the economic crisis in Argentina • High tax burden and high interest rates • Dollar is currently valued with a tendency to devaluation next year. IFF - 8.4 29 Necessary Investments in Foundry Industry in Brazil in the next years (2014 – 2018) From 2014 until 2018 the foundry industry will invest 880 millions of dollars for an increase of production of 400 thousand ton needed to meet the growth in the automotive sector. IFF - 8.5 Production and installed capacity needed to meet the expected 30 demand in Brazil (unit: thousand ton) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 production install cap 2014 2860 4200 2015 3000 4200 2016 3250 4300 2017 3500 4400 2018 3900 4600 IFF - 8.6 31 THANK YOU ! Brazilian Foundry Association – ABIFA Av. Paulista, 1274 – 20o andar 01310-925 – São Paulo – SP - Brazil Ph: (+55 11) 3549-3344 and Fac (+55 11) 3549-3355 Remo De Simone – president [email protected] www.abifa.org.br Sept/2014 32 Source: ABAL - Brazilian Aluminum Association ABIFA – Brazilian Foundry Association ABRAFE – Brazilian Ferroalloys Association ANEEL – National Agency of Electricity (Brazil) ANFAVEA – National Automobile Manufactures Association (Brazil) CAMMESA – Mercado Eléctrico Mayorista (Argentina) CFE – Comissão Federal de Electricidade (Mexico) CIFRA – Camara de Fundidores de la Republica Argentina SINDIFER – Producers of Pig Iron Trade Union (Brazil) SMF – Sociedad Mexicana Fundidores (Mexico)