Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static general equilibrium

Transcription

final report
Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static
general equilibrium analysis
Universite Laval
Renato Vargas
Pamela Escobar
Maynor Cabrera
Javier Cabrera
Violeta Hernández
Vivian Guzmán
March 2016
Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static general equilibrium analysis
Abstract
In this study, we used a Computable General Equilibrium model of the Guatemalan economy to
conduct simulations for a) an increase in international food prices; b) a reduction in productivity
due to climate change; c) the effects of drought in agriculture; d) a reduction of transportation
margins; and e) agricultural incentive policies. Of all alternatives, a policy that reduced margins
could have great benefits to the Guatemalan economy in terms of an increase in the level of
production, exports, consumption of food and exports. This scenario would be beneficial in terms
of an increase of GDP (2.9%), consumption (2.9%), exports (2.9% in real terms) and government
consumption (3.1% in real terms). Conversely in another scenario, it is relevant that a reduction in
productivity due to climate change would mean an important drop in the value added of
agriculture for food, agriculture for seed, as well as a slight drop in that of industrial food production
and the service industry. Under this scenario we could expect a fall in real GDP of 1.2%. The
reduction of productivity could mean a reduced fiscal space, and a reduction in government
expenditure because of lower tax revenues. More importantly, due to higher prices and lower
income of households, this scenario could mean that consumption of agricultural goods for each
type of household would be reduced in a relevant manner with great impacts to the food security
aspect of access.
JEL: R15, R22, Q12.
Keywords: Regional Economics Measurement, Computable General Equilibrium, Spatial
Analysis, Natural Resource, Agricultural Employment, Farm Household, Farm Input
Markets,
Authors
Renato Vargas:
Economist, independent
Guatemala City, Guatemala
renovargas [at] gmail [dot] com
Pamela Escobar:
Systems Engineer, independent
pescobarf [at] gmail [dot] com
Maynor Cabrera:
Economist, Fedes.org
maynor.cabrera [at] fedes [dot] org
Javier Cabrera:
Economics undergraduate student
jacava.84 [at] gmail [dot] com
Violeta Hernández:
violetaehernandezc [at] gmail [dot] com
Vivian Guzmán:
vvguzman [at] gmail [dot] com
Acknowledgements
This research work was carried out with financial and scientific support from the Partnership for
Economic Policy (PEP) (www.pep-net.org) with funding from the Department for International
Development (DFID) of the United Kingdom (or UK Aid), and the Government of Canada through
the International Development Research Center (IDRC). The authors are also grateful to Person X
and Person Y for technical support and guidance, as well as to Person Z for valuable comments
and suggestions.
Contents
1
2
3
4
5
Introduction ............................................................................................................................8
1.1
Context of the study ..........................................................................................................8
1.2
Research questions and objectives ..................................................................................10
Literature review ..................................................................................................................10
2.1
CGE models for agricultural sector analysis ...................................................................10
2.2
Regarding food security and agriculture .........................................................................11
2.3
Food risk scenarios on food insecurity and main effects .................................................12
Data ..........................................................................................................................................13
3.1
Sources of Information ....................................................................................................13
3.2
Constructing the national social accounting matrix .........................................................13
3.3
Activities and Commodity aggregations of Supply and Use tables .................................15
3.4
Labor disaggregation.......................................................................................................16
3.5
Household dissagregation ...............................................................................................18
3.5.1
Household income ......................................................................................................18
3.5.2
Household expenditure ...............................................................................................20
Methodology ............................................................................................................................22
4.1
The structure of a PEP 1x1 social accounting matrix ......................................................22
4.2
Model ..............................................................................................................................22
Application and results ...............................................................................................................0
5.1
Guatemala’s economic structure from the SAM ...............................................................0
5.1.1
Main productive sectors ................................................................................................0
5.1.2
Activities focused on the external sector .......................................................................0
5.1.3
Employment structure and earnings ..............................................................................1
5.1.4
Household income ........................................................................................................2
5.1.5
Household consumption ...............................................................................................3
5.1.6
Margins .........................................................................................................................5
5.2
Results from simulations ...................................................................................................6
5.2.1
Increase in international food prices .............................................................................6
5.2.2
Reduction in productivity due to climate change ..........................................................9
5.2.3
Effects of drought on agriculture ................................................................................11
5.2.4
Reduction of margins of transport...............................................................................13
5.2.5
Agricultural incentive policies ....................................................................................15
6
Conclusions and policy implications ........................................................................................17
7
References ..................................................................................................................................0
8
Annex .........................................................................................................................................0
8.1
Household expenditure detail ............................................................................................0
8.2
Micro SAM Accounts detail .............................................................................................7
List of tables
Table 1 - Technologies that would have the largest global effect on a price reduction and yield increase
in 2050, by crop ...............................................................................................................................13
Table 2 - Macro SAM ......................................................................................................................14
Table 3 – Commodity and Economic Activity Aggregation for the Micro SAM .............................15
Table 4 - Labor income – ENCOVI 2011 variables ........................................................................16
Table 5 - Participation in activities income by skill level (percentage) ............................................17
Table 6 - Activities of the SAM according to the activities included in the survey ..........................18
Table 7 - Share of each group of household (percentage) ................................................................18
Table 8 - Income source – Encovi 2011 variables ............................................................................19
Table 9 - Share of income for each household group .......................................................................20
Table 10 - Household expenditure in good and services according to household groups (percentage)
.........................................................................................................................................................21
Table 11 - Basic structure of a sam for pep 1-1 model .....................................................................24
Table 12 - Added value per sector (millions of Quetzales and percentage) ........................................0
Table 13 - Exports and imports by commodity (percentage) ..............................................................1
Table 14 - Factorial composition of value added (percentage) ...........................................................2
Table 15 - Distribution of income for each household group (percentage) .........................................3
Table 16 - Income composition for each household group (Percentage) ............................................3
Table 17 - Consumption composition of each household group (percentage) ....................................5
Table 18 – Margin rates .....................................................................................................................6
Table 19 - Exports and imports by product (% change) .....................................................................7
Table 20 - GDP table (% change) .......................................................................................................8
Table 21 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change) .....................8
Table 22 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change) ..........................................9
Table 23 - GDP table (% change) .....................................................................................................10
Table 24 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change) ...................11
Table 26 - Exports and imports by product (% change) ...................................................................13
Table 28 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change) ........................................15
Table 30 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change) ........................................16
Table 31 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change) ...................17
Table 32 - Household expenditure –Encovi 2011 variables ...............................................................0
Table 33 - Activities: table of equivalences........................................................................................7
Table 34 - Products: table of equivalences .......................................................................................11
List of figures
Figure 1 - Total aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of increase in world food prices (% change)
...........................................................................................................................................................6
Figure 2 - Aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of decrease of TFP (% change) ........................10
Figure 3 - Water use by industry (% total) .......................................................................................11
Figure 4 - Change in value added by sector, by simulation scenario ................................................12
Figure 5 - Change in total output by sector ......................................................................................14
Figure 6 - Change in total output by sector ......................................................................................16
1 Introduction
1.1 Context of the study
After considerably reducing the size of planning agencies and their importance in the wake of
structural reforms during the 1990s, Guatemala has recently resumed long term planning with the
participative construction of the National Development Plan K’atun: Our Guatemala 2032
(Conadur/Segeplan, 2014), NDP hereafter. The NDP has four broad components, one of which is
related to environmental and food security aspects. Among the policy priorities identified for this
component, the plan moves for the creation of incentives for agricultural output with cultural
pertinence regarding age, ethnicity, and gender; along with the creation of value chains for that output
and the development of infrastructure to improve agricultural trade.
According to the Living Standards Measurement Survey –LSMS 2011, in 2011, 33.5% of the
employed population of 15 years old and over from Guatemala, were employed in the agricultural
sector (43.6% of men and 16.1% of women). Of the total employed in agriculture, 78.5% lived in
rural areas and 71.3% were below the poverty line. In addition, more than a third of those employed
in this sector (37.1%) were of ages 15 to 24, and 7 out of 10, and had incomplete primary education
or less. For that same year, only 6.8% of those employed in agriculture were formally employed (by
2011, over 70% of the employed population were working in the informal sector).
It is not altogether clear which new concrete actions will be used to comply with the NDP, but the
Secretariat for Planning of the Presidency –SEGEPLAN– has already instructed that existing policies
be aligned to it and that new programs created under their umbrella strongly support NDP priorities.
One such policy is the forest policy and legal framework, which for a decade and a half has
underpinned the widespread National Forest Incentives Program which previously focused on
increasing forest cover for commercial purposes and targeted large landowners. Recent modifications
to the legal framework (under the name PROBOSQUE) allow for smaller landowners with less certain
property regimes to access the program not only for commercial purposes, but for food security,
employment, and energy provision (INAB/PFN, 2013). One of the biggest changes is the introduction
of new incentive purposes such as mixed agro-forest systems (for the simultaneous production of
crops with forests to improve food security) and for energetic uses (fuel wood). Given the wide reach
of this program, It could prove useful for policy to assess the changes to land as an agricultural
production factor that might be introduced at the national level with PROBOSQUE and changes in
crop and forest output that might be brought upon by the changes.
Another policy with far reaching actions within the agricultural sector is the National Irrigation Policy
(MAGA, 2013), which identifies areas in need of irrigation; introduces micro-irrigation systems at
the plot level for small and micro-farmers, develops infrastructure for water provision (regulation,
storage, and transport); and promotes integrated systems of irrigated animal and agricultural output.
This will put 60,000 ha under irrigation in the period 2013-2017. This is certainly a measure that has
both economic and widespread environmental implications.
While there might be an improvement in food security with these actions, a shift towards an increase
in the share of industry for the entire country might become more difficult in the presence of low
price imports, further increasing informality in cities. With these types of incentives, there is the
possibility that investments in the agricultural sector prove too big for large owners to diversify into
finance or industry (Amsden, 2001). Furthermore, environmental impacts, and their effect on
populations, might multiply in an economy already vulnerable to effects of climate change.
Even if some incentive programs to agriculture have been studied in the Central American region
from an impact evaluation perspective (e.g. Iarna-URL/FAUSAC, 2013), it is believed that those
programs are so widespread, with direct and indirect effects in the entire economy and the
environment, that an environmentally extended general equilibrium approach is more suitable, in
order to overcome endogeneity issues (Khandker, et al., 2010).
Nonetheless, applications of macro-micro models for Guatemala have been few. In 2008, Vasquez
applied an integrated macro-micro model, called MAMS (Maquette for simulation of the Millennium
Development Goals -MDG-, described in detail in Lofgren et al., 2013). 1. In 2010, a Cabrera and
colleagues (2010) implemented the Model of Exogenous Shocks and Economic and Social Protection
- MACEPES-2 with interesting results. Their findings are explained in the relevant section below.
Water resources are facing several stresses in terms of quantity and quality. These pressures are
related to human interventions like agriculture and land use change (Llop & Ponce, 2012). According
to Llop & Ponce (2012) CGE and water analysis at national scale had studied a broad type of issues
like water pricing policy, water allocation, water markets and climate change impacts. Under different
approaches and scope of analysis, any shock in water availability would have great implications on
agricultural production and on inequality as we will see in the results section.
The agricultural sector is key to food security and it is important to understand the linkages between
the economy and its various components in a systemic manner. A focus on agricultural and food
security aspects of the System of Environmental and Economic Accounts of Guatemala shows key
insights into these linkages. For example, it is interesting to learn that maize production in Guatemala
depends entirely on rain water for its growth (INE, 2012). This exposes the production of this crop to
considerable risk in terms of climate variability, which contrasts with the fact that after sugar cane
and bananas, maize is the largest production in terms of volume.
A similar argument can be made of beans, which also depend entirely on rain water (INE, 2012).
Beans cover a relevant portion of the Guatemalan diet, and it is interesting to see how canned legumes
are increasingly used by households. This form of consumption of beans is ever more present in urban
kitchens and it might represent a cultural shift that might increase the importance of industrial food
processing in the food chain.
It is also important to note the sheer amount of land used by maize and beans; the staple crops of
Guatemala. Even if there are no land quality considerations in the data (INE, 2012), the low yields of
the lands used for these crops, coupled with lower levels of technical development and no irrigation
provide an explanation to the considerable amounts of land used for their production.
We must recognize the share used by manufacturing industries at the national level. For example, in
the case of maize, only 20% of all used volume had a final destination in manufacturing. This is
consistent with the 80% (adjusted to extract the negative stock variation) that was consumed by
households. It contrasts with the 99% of the supply of unprocessed rice and wheat that were used
almost exclusively by the food processing industries (INE, 2012). This does not mean that households
didn't consume such products. It only means that they got them in their processed versions, such as
This study was developed under the Project “Políticas públicas para el desarrollo humano: ¿Cómo lograr los objetivos de
desarrollo del milenio en América latina y el Caribe?” of UNDP, UN/DESA, The World Bank and UN/ECLAC, developed
in 18 countries in Latin America.
2 Thi study was developed under the Project “Implicaciones de la Política Macroeconómica, los Choques Externos, y los
Sistemas de Protección Social en la Pobreza, la Desigualdad y la Vulnerabilidad en América Latina y el Caribe”, coordinated
by ECLAC and UN/DESA.
1
precooked white rice and dehydrated breakfast gruel. For this very reason, the totality of sugar cane
was used by the food processing industry (INE, 2012).
Aside from these exceptions, households did consume large volumes of cultivated products directly,
which is consistent with the traditional market culture still present in most of the country. For
example, they used 95% of beans, 88% of potatoes, 97% of other roots and tubers, 99% of fresh
culinary herbs, 91% of other vegetables and 67% of all fruits, among others (INE, 2012).
These facts frame our simulations appropriately and they allow us to provide an intuition for the
increases and decreases of the results.
1.2 Research questions and objectives
Because rural population have serious social disadvantages in terms of poverty and malnutrition, one
on the main challenges of the economic policy is the creation of jobs in rural areas. With a long history
of strong reliance of the Guatemalan economy in the agricultural sector and lack of creation of quality
jobs, one policy question to answer is if agricultural incentives could create opportunities to reduce
poverty and create inclusive growth. Besides, agricultural incentives could create more stress on use
of natural resources like water, land and forest. Evidence of the SEEA of Guatemala (INE et al., 2013)
shows that forest coverage had an steep decline in last 20 years. So the extension of agricultural land
could have further impacts on the forest cover and water production.
Research questions include:





What are the impacts of widespread agricultural and forest incentive policies on growth and
employment?
What can we expect from the share of contribution to GDP of the Agricultural sector given
these incentives?
Can a reduction of margins via infrastructure, for example, break the monopoly power of
trade?
Will a reduction of margins for given crops have an effect on water use according to the
current baseline?
Will subsidies for inputs like fertilizers, irrigation within the farm, have an positive effect on
the contribution to GDP of the Agriculture sector..
2 Literature review
2.1 CGE models for agricultural sector analysis
Arguello et al. (2012) applied an integrated top-down macro-micro CGE and microsimulation
modeling approach to understand the impacts of a large scale agricultural compensation program
(Secure Agricultural Income Program - AIS) for the potential losers of the free trade agreement
between Colombia and the U.S. They assessed the effects of the program both at the macro level
(prices, quantities produced, employment, and real factor return) as well as at the micro level (rural
household income and incidence of poverty) and found that rural poverty would decrease by less than
1 percent, with a similar increase in the poverty gap. They concluded that the present design of the
AIS program seems to have limited capacity to achieve the objectives it was designed for, although
it does appear to boost agricultural productivity and competitiveness, albeit at the expense of small
farmers.
Conversely, applications of CGE models for Guatemala have been few. In 2008, Vasquez applied an
integrated macro-micro model, called MAMS (Maquette for simulation of the Millennium
Development Goals -MDG-, described in detail in Lofgren et al., 2013). 3. In 2010, Cabrera and
colleagues (2010) implemented the Model of Exogenous Shocks and Economic and Social Protection
- MACEPES-4 with interesting results. with the application of micro-simulations5, estimated the
poverty impact of external shocks. The main external shocks identified in this study were, a fall in
international prices of major exports and a drop in remittances. In both cases they observed a
reduction in economic growth and increased poverty levels.
Water resources are facing several stresses in terms of quantity and quality. These pressures are
related to human interventions like agriculture and land use change (Ponce et. Al., 2012). According
to Ponce, et al (2012) CGE and water analysis at national scale had studied a broad type of issues like
water pricing policy, water allocation, water markets and climate change impacts. Under different
approach and scope of analysis, any shock in water availability will have great implications for
agricultural production.
Because rural population have serious social disadvantages in terms of poverty and malnutrition, one
on the main challenges of the economic policy is the creation of jobs in rural areas. With a long history
of strong reliance of the Guatemalan economy in the agricultural sector and lack of creation of quality
jobs, one policy question to answer is if improvements to the agricultural sector could create
opportunities to reduce poverty and create inclusive growth. On the other hand, agricultural
incentives could create more stress on use of natural resources like water, land and forest. Evidence
of the SEEA of Guatemala (INE et al., 2013) shows that forest coverage had a steep decline in last
20 years. So the extension of agricultural land could have further impacts on the forest cover and
water production.
2.2 Regarding food security and agriculture
Low- and middle-income countries have been under the spotlight due to the prevalence of food
insecurity. As a result, there has been a global effort to reduce malnourishment as expressed by the
Millennium Development Goals that were set to be achieved in 2015. By the end of that year, the
United Nations Organization acknowledged that “the proportion of undernourished people in the
developing regions has fallen by almost half since 1990, from 23.3 per cent in 1990–1992 to 12.9 per
cent in 2014–2016” (United Nations, 2015).
However, the results differ widely by region and country. For instance, Latin America is one of the
regions that reached the target of halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. Among
the region, Nicaragua and Peru showed the greatest improvement, while Guatemala was the only
country to show no progress on eradicating hunger (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2015). By
2015, Guatemala still had 15.6 per cent of its population living below minimum dietary levels (in
1991, this rate was 14.9 per cent according to the United Nations, 2016). Therefore, efforts to reduce
hunger must continue.
This study was developed under the Project “Políticas públicas para el desarrollo humano: ¿Cómo lograr los objetivos de
desarrollo del milenio en América latina y el Caribe?” of UNDP, UN/DESA, The World Bank and UN/ECLAC, developed
in 18 countries in Latin America.
4 Thi study was developed under the Project “Implicaciones de la Política Macroeconómica, los Choques Externos, y los
Sistemas de Protección Social en la Pobreza, la Desigualdad y la Vulnerabilidad en América Latina y el Caribe”, coordinated
by ECLAC and UN/DESA.
5 Vos et al. (2010).
3
There are several factors that are making Guatemala fall behind globaly. For example, maize and
beans, the staple crops behind the Guatemalan diet have shown low agricultural yields and absolutely
no use of artificial irrigation (INE, 2012), influenced not only by the lack of technology among the
small-scale farmers, but also because of adverse climate conditions 6. At the same time, the country
depends on the import of agricultural goods7 which means that the country has recently experienced
rising food import prices and exports that cannot keep up. For those reasons, Yu, You, & Fan (2010)
consider it to be a low food-secure country.
More recently, it has been argued that the most food-insecure countries “frequently have higher
political stability risk and corruption levels, alongside weaker institutions that fail to provide
appropriate government regulation and oversight” (E.I.U., 2014). Guatemala is one of the countries
that falls into this description and this may undermine the capabilities to reach its food policies’
objectives.
2.3 Food risk scenarios on food insecurity and main effects
Conforti (2011) identifies that some of main long term drivers of change in food systems are:
Growth of agricultural products demand: according to Alexandratos & Bruinsma (2012), the
global demand for agricultural products is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent between
2005/2007 to 2050. This growth is influenced by the growth of the global population, increases in per
capita income, and diet changes that include more livestock products. Altogether, these factors are
expected to create pressure on natural resources, and according to the IFPRI IMPACT model, prices
for maize, rice, and wheat would increase by 104, 79, and 88 per cent, respectively by 2050
(Rosegrant, et al., 2014).
A price increase on these vital products will impact countries like Guatemala, as the import shares of
these products are high. In fact, from past events, Torero & Robles (2010) have estimated that a 10
per cent rise in food prices would increase the national poverty rate in 0.9 percentual points, mainly
affecting urban households.
Unequal yield growth and agricultural productivity: a decrease of agriculture yields in developing
countries is expected, but developed countries will be better off. Hence, some countries will be in
need to import food from other markets to meet their demand (Conforti, 2011).
Although, these countries could encourage technological development and adoption to improve the
agricultural yields, as it might be the main factor to boost agricultural growth.
Climate change: Conforti mentions that climate change will bring not only changes in long term
temperature means, but also changes in the “precipitation and even atmospheric carbon content that
affect crop growth potential”.
Climate is expected to have large implications for Guatemala. For instance, under certain climate
conditions forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in 2030, the maize yields
could vary between -6.7 and -3.8 per cent, those of the bean could vary from -6.9 to 1.5 per cent, and
6
Guatemala occupies the tenth position in the Global Climate Risk Index 2016, which means that it is one of the countries
that has suffered the most from extreme weather events between 1995 and 2014 (Kreft, Eckstein, Dorsch, & Fischer, 2015).
7 In 2010, the supply of wheat, rice and maize came from import flows (99.7%, 69.5% and 21.3% of total offer, respectively).
the rice yields could vary between -10.4 and -7.5 percent (Comisión Económica para América Latina
y El Caribe, 2013).
Technology adoption: At a global level, there is enough food for everyone to be nourished (World
Food Programme, 2011), as a result of technological progress. In the following years, the agricultural
activity is expected to become more dependent on technology adoption due to the challenges derived
from climate change (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2016).
There are several technology choices for agriculture. Some of them, in spite of increasing agricultural
productivity, might have further implications on the use of water, the quality of land and energy
resources (for example, genetic modification, pesticides, and fertilizers). However, Rosegrant, et al.
(2014) simulated the results in food and water supply, demand, trade and prices over forty years for
eleven selected technologies. The authors conclude that the following technologies would have the
strongest price-reduction and yield impacts, considering the future weather conditons. These results
could be assesed for each country’s reality.
Table 1 - Technologies that would have the largest global effect on a price reduction and yield increase
in 2050, by crop
Price reduction
Maize
Rice
-Heat tolerant varieties
-No-till
-Nitrogen-use efficiency
-Precision agriculture
Wheat
-No-till
-Heat tolerant varieties
-Precision agriculture
Adapted from Rosegrant, et al. 2014.
From a four-pillar perspective, efforts for fighting hunger should not only focus on increasing food
availability, but also on reducing food waste, assuring market competitiveness, and assuring the safety
and quality of food.
3 Data
3.1 Sources of Information
The SAM was constructed using three sources of information: SAM 2011 (Escobar, 2015), Supply
and Use Tables (SUT) from the Central Bank of Guatemala for the year 2011, the relative structure
of remunerations of capital and land found on the GTAP model, and the Life Standards Measurement
Survey (Encovi) from the year 2011 (INE, 2012). Since the SAM for year 2011 (Escobar, 2011) that
we had as a starting point does not conform to the requirements of the PEP 1-1 model and also does
not have the necessary degree of disaggregation of activities, commodities and households to analyze
impacts of agricultural incentive policies on socioeconomic and environmental variables in
Guatemala, the National Accounts’ SUT for the year 2011 were used to disaggregate agricultural
activities and commodities, as well as activities with high demand of water. In order to estimate the
relative structure of factor remunerations by activity, transfers to households, and consumption by
household, the household survey was used to derive standard coefficients.
3.2 Constructing the national social accounting matrix
Six steps were taken for the construction of a suitable SAM Guatemala 2011 for this study. First, we
compiled a Macro SAM, rearranging information from SAM 2011 into an aggregated format derived
from an analytical perspective of the System of Environmental and Economic Accounts for
Agriculture, Forestry, and fisheries, which has a strong emphasis on food security issues. Second, we
disaggregated the labor factor using information from the Household Survey. Next, we used data from
GTAP to split the capital factor between capital and land. Since it was necessary to have a specific
remuneration for the land factor, we used the relative structure from GTAP 8. Fourth, we rearranged
the SUT information in order to disaggregate activities in SAM. Fifth, using household survey
estimates we opened household information. Finally, we opened information for commodities.
The first step was to construct a Macro SAM using information from Escobar’s SAM (2011). Also,
we identified accounts that could be disaggregated using supply and use tables from the central bank
of Guatemala (BANGUAT). We show these cells in light-purple color in the next table.
Table 2 - Macro SAM
L
LAB
L
K
AG
AG
AG
AG
AG
AG
AG
J
I
OTH
OTH
LAB
CAP
HH
181,509
GVT
ROW
82
TI
TM
TD
TFAC 10,921
A
C
INV
VSTK
TOTAL
192,511
K
CAP
142,848
50
11,360
-
AG
HH
AG
GVT
11,164
2,721
2,000
AG
ROW
871
502
38,649
2,200
AG
TI
AG
TM
AG
TD
AG
TFAC
J
A
I
C
OTH
INV
OTH
VSTK
191,640
153,756
192,511
154,259
374,170
20,829
2,524
14,307
10,921
2,261
2,203
14,307
55,814
138,605
154,250
20,829
2,524
20,829
2,524
14,307
10,921
316,528
38,614
37,803
4,643
98,783
13,245
246,512
594,170
95,388
594,170
54,910
1,592
374,170
55,814
154,250
851,517
56,502
1,592
154,259
TOTAL
20,829
2,524
14,307
10,921
594,170
851,517
56,502
1,592
1,592
Source: Own construction.
Then we disaggregated the labor factor between skilled (L-SKL) and unskilled (L-UNS)9 labor.
Because Escobar’s SAM has four different labor factors (wage skilled, non-wages skilled, wage
unskilled, non-wag) we used the relative structure to estimate L-SKL and L-UNS.
As a provisional measure, we applied the G-TAP relative structure on remunerations on Capital and
Land10. Furthermore, we split gross operating surplus by activity 11. Based on information from a
processed SUT12, we proceded to divide remunerations of labor, production, and intermediate
consumption by activity. Because we don’t have disaggregation of transfers (non-tax) from activities
to government and taxes on activities, we estimated those as a residual.
Using the Life Standards Household Survey, we split the accounts to match our household structure.
In this exercise we have four types of households: rural poor, rural non-poor, urban poor and urban
non-poor. Poverty was determined using the official poverty line of 201113 and, using information
from the household survey, we were able to estimate labor income, consumption and most transfers 14
according to type of household. Savings were estimated as a residual from factor income, as well as
transfers from government and the rest of the world, minus transfers to Government, and transfers to
the rest of the world and consumption.
8
We are performing an alternate estimation of remuneration of land factor, using household survey Encovi.
Definition of skilled and unskilled
10
See G-TAP Model.
11 See activities included in SAM in annex.
12 Using an R script we collapsed activites from SUT from Banguat (2014) to create an Ad-hoc SUT.
13 See Life Standards Measurement Survey, INE (2011).
14 Transfers from Government and Rest of the world
9
Finally, using data from the household survey we created a split by commodity accounts. These
accounts include consumption by household. Using the processed SUT we included in the SAM all
exports by commodity, intermediate consumption, supply, investment, and margins of trade and
transport. To close the SAM, we estimated residually the change in inventories from two activities
(beverages and other industries).
3.3 Activities and Commodity aggregations of Supply and Use tables
In order to improve the analytical potential of the SAM, we turned to the recently drafted manual for
the System of Environmental and Economic Accounts for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (FAO,
n/d), which has a strong emphasis on food security issues. The logic behind the aggregation of
economic sectors and commodities proposed by the manual implies that there are some crops that are
used by some industries mainly for animal feed and other industries as seed. Some manufacturing
industries then use agricultural products as inputs in the production of food for humans and animals.
Some of these are used by food services, such as hotels, restaurants and bars as their own inputs, and
other are consumed directly by households (or final demand in general). Hence, it seemed appropriate
to aggregate our industries in categories which reflected that consumption process, because our study
seeks to explore food security issues. It might seem unintuitive to group output activities according
to their intermediate use of commodities, rather than their object of production, but in this manner the
food security implications of policies are easier to track.
The table below describes the aggregation, which is detailed for 123 activities and 226 products in
the Annex, as well as transactions necessary in order to bring producer’s prices to market prices. This
reaggregation allowed for the creation of an ad-hoc supply and use table for this study, which is
available upon request.
Table 3 – Commodity and Economic Activity Aggregation for the Micro SAM
Industries and Transactions
Commodities
T01A01 Agricultural Industries for seed
R01 Coffee
T01A02 Agricultural Industries for feed
R02 Bananas
T01A03 Other agriculture
R03 Maize
T01A04 Other primary industries
R04 Beans
T01A05 Food industry
R05 Cereals and legumes
T01A06 Other manufactures
R06 Roots and tubers
T01A07 Water distribution
R07 Vegetables
T01A08 Other services
R08 Fruits
T02A09 Imports of goods
R09 Other crops, live plants, flowers and their seeds
T03A09 Imports of services
R10 Milk
T04A09 CIF/FOB adjustment on imports
R11 Eggs
T05A09 VAT
R12 Other animal products including live animals
T06A09 Tariffs exc. VAT on imports
R13 Fuel wood
T07A09 Taxes on products, exc. VAT and Tariffs
R14 Other forestry products
T08A09 Subsidies on products
R15 Fish and other fisheries products
T09A09 Trade margins
R16 Minerals
T10A09 Transportation margins
R17 Meat products
T11A09 Electricity, gas, water
R18 Prepared or canned fish
T12A09 Exports of goods
R19 Canned legumes
T13A09 Exports of services
R20 Animal and vegetal oils and fats
T14A09 Household final consumption
R21 Mill products
T15A09 NFPI final consumption
R22 Animal foods
T16A09 Individual gov final consumption
R23 Bakery products
T17A09 Collective gov final consumption
R24 Sugars
T18A09 Gross capital formation
R25 Macaroons and noodles
T19A09 Stock variation
R26 Dairy products
T20A09 Valuable objects
R27 Other food products
R28 Beverages
R29 Other manufactured products
R30 Electricity, gas, and water
R31 Lodging, food service
R32 Other wholesale, retail, and services
Source : Author with information from BANGUAT (2011).
3.4
Labor disaggregation
Labor disaggregation was developed with information from the Life Standards Measurement Survey
(ENCOVI) from the year 2011. The labor factor is disaggregated in two categories, skilled and
unskilled employees. Skilled workers are those with 9 years of schooling or more.
Labor income was calculated from the sum of the monetary and non-monetary earnings. Monetary
income contains the entry of the first and second employment of a salaried worker (government
employee, private employee, laborer or pawn and domestic employee) and those from independent
workers (employer and self-employed). The following table details each of the relevant variables in
the survey included for the calculation of labor income, and the frequency with which the income is
received.
Table 4 - Labor income – ENCOVI 2011 variables
Labor
income
Monetary
labor
income
Income of
employees
Income of first
job
Income of
second job
Salary (monthly)- p10b08
Extra hours (mensual)- p10b09a p10b09b
p10b09c
Commissions, tips (monthly)- p10b10b
Bonus 14 (annual) - p10b11b
Bonus (annual)- p10b12b
Deferred (annual)- p10b13b
Vacation bonus (annual)- p10b14b
Productivity bonus (annual) - p10b15b
Work during holiday period (anual) p10b18b
Salary (monthly)- p10c05
Extra hours, comissions and tips
(monthly) - p10c06b p10c06c
Income of
independent
workers
Nonmonetary
labor
income
Income of first
job
Income of
second job
Non-monetary income of first
job
Non-monetary income of second
job
Deferred, vacation bonus, productivity
bonus (anual) - p10c10b
Bonus (annual) - p10c09b
Monthly gain (agricultural and nonagricultural)- p10b22/ p10b23
Monthly gain (agricultural and nonagricultural) - p10c11/p10c12
Food allowance (monthly)- p10b19
Housing payment (monthly)- p10b20b
Transport (monthly) - p10b21b
Clothing (annual) - p10b16b
Food and footwear (monthly) - p10c07b
Housing and transport (monthly) p10c08b
Source: author with information from Encovi 2011.
Table 5 presents the relative structure of revenues by sector and level of qualifications. The sectors
included in the table correspond to the activities of the SAM. In general, it can be seen that 52.8% of
revenues correspond to skilled workers. However, by activity the proportions are different. For
activities related to agricultural production, both for seed and for food, 90.1% of incomes corresponds
to unskilled workers and 9.9% to skilled workers. For this outcome, it is important to note that over
90% of the population engaged in agricultural production, is unskilled.
Table 5 - Participation in activities income by skill level (percentage)
Activities
Total
Agricultural production for seed
Agricultural production for food
Other agricultural production
Other primaries
Food industry
Other manufacturing industries
Water distribution
Other services
Skilled
Unskilled
52.8
9.9
9.9
10.3
21.9
58.0
43.2
57.1
63.5
47.2
90.1
90.1
89.7
78.1
42.0
56.8
42.9
36.5
Source: with information from Encovi 2011.
For activities related to industry and services, the proportions of earnings for skilled and unskilled
employees is different. For the food industry, 58% of income is for skilled employees, while for other
industries the proportion of skilled income is less (43.2%). For service activities, is greater the
proportion of income that corresponds to skilled labor.
Table 6 shows the detail of the sectors included in each of the activities of the SAM needed to estimate
what proportion of income corresponds to skilled and unskilled labor. Because the activities in the
survey are disaggregated only at two digits according to the ISIC rev 3 (International Standard
Industrial Classification of All Economic activities, Rev. 3), it was necessary to include more than
once the same activity of agriculture, hunting and related service for the agricultural production for
food and seed.
Table 6 - Activities of the SAM according to the activities included in the survey
Activities
Activities in the survey according to the ISIC rev 3.
Agriculture, hunting and related service activities
Grow Coffee
Grow Coffee
Fishing, operation of fish hatcheries and fish farms; service
activities incidental to fishing
Forestry, logging and related service activities
Grow Coffee
Other primaries
Mining and quarrying
Food industry
Manufacture of food products and beverages
Rest of manufacturing
Water distribution
Collection, purification and distribution of water
Other services
Rest of services
Source: with information from Encovi 2011 and ISIC rev 3.
3.5 Household dissagregation
Since the aim of the study is to measure the impact on poverty, for this exercise we disaggregated
into four representative household groups, by poverty level and by urban/rural areas. Households that
do not reach to cover the minimum cost necessary to meet the food and non-food needs are considered
poor households, according to the official estimation of poverty for Guatemala. For the definition of
urban areas the survey uses the same of the latest census of population and housing of 2002. The table
below (Table 7) shows the proportion of each group of household.
Table 7 - Share of each group of household (percentage)
Household group
Percentage
Urban poor
Rural poor
Urban non-poor
Rural non-poor
16.6
36.5
31.8
15.0
3.5.1
Household income
For each representative household group, income is disaggregated according to the source of income
and the expenditure for each commodity. For all income components, the annual value is obtained by
multiplying by 12 the income received on a monthly basis, and by four income received during the
last three months. As already mentioned, the labor income includes labor income by skilled and
unskilled worker (see detail of the variables in Table 1). Skilled workers are those aged 15 or more,
with 9 years of schooling or more.
Capital income include rental income of rooms, housing, machinery, land, etc., interest and stock
dividends. It does not include imputed rent. Government transfers to households, include income from
benefits welfare programs15, the income on account of retirement or pension and the money received
for scholarships and/or school transport subsidy.
The money received from remittances from people living abroad are the transfers received from the
rest of the world. The income from the land was estimated from the sale or lease of land for
agricultural use in the past twelve months. The following table shows the survey variables
corresponding to each type of income.
Table 8 - Income source – Encovi 2011 variables
Rents (quaterly) - p11a01b
Capital
income
Income
Interest (quaterly) - p11a02b
Stock dividends (quaterly) - p11a03b
Primer beneficio (monthly estimation) - p03c04
Govermen
t transfers
Benefits of social assistance
programs
Segundo beneficio (monthly estimation)- p03c08
Tercer beneficio (monthly estimation)- p03c12
Transfers
Transfers
from the
rest of the
world
Remittances
Land
income
Sale or lease of land during the
past 12 months
Becas por estudio (quaterly) - p11a07b
Jubilación o pensión (quaterly) p11a04b
Remittances (quaterly) - p11a06b
Lease of land for agricultural use - p14a06
Sale of land for agricultural use - p14a08
Table 9 shows the relative structure of income, according to the source of income, for each household
group. It can be seen that the largest share of skilled labor income corresponds to non-poor urban
households, just as capital incomes. Importantly, government transfers are aimed primarily at nonpoor urban households, because pensions and retirement income are included. Transfers from the rest
of the world are mainly aimed to the non-poor, urban and rural households. The land income,
corresponds most to the non-poor rural households.
15
The benefits of social assistance programs include the estimation of how much people would pay if they had to buy the
benefit provided by an institution of the Government.
Table 9 - Share of income for each household group
Percentage
Source of income
Urban poor
Rural poor
Labor income
Skilled
Non-skilled
Capital income
Government transfers
Transfers from the rest of the world
Land income
9.9
4.9
15.6
3.4
9.3
6.5
21.4
14.1
2.7
26.9
0.2
24.8
16.5
20.1
Urban nonpoor
61.5
83.4
36.9
95.3
54.3
47.8
18.2
Rural nonpoor
14.4
9.0
20.6
1.2
11.6
29.2
40.4
Source: with information of Encovi 2011.
3.5.2
Household expenditure
Household expenditure on goods and services include the spending on food, spending on goods and
services performed last week, last month and the last 12 months. Spending on energy sources used
by the household and media. Also it’s included the spending on transport and household services.
Table 32 in the Annex shows the expenses on good and services and the corresponding variables in
the household survey. Depending on the frequency with which the expenditure was incurred, the sum
of the annual value is calculated by multiplying the cost of last week by 52, plus the last month by
12, plus the cost of the last 12 months.
Detailed expenditure on goods and services by household group is included in Table 10. It can be
seen that in general the consumption of urban non-poor households is greater in most goods and
services. The consumption of poor rural households is higher in some specific products such as corn,
forestry and some baked goods. The consumption of urban poor households is low in most products,
in part because they represent a smaller proportion, as well as non-poor rural households
Table 10 - Household expenditure in good and services according to household groups (percentage)
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Commodities
Urban poor
Rural poor
Total
Banano
Café
Maiz
Frijoles
Cereales y legumbres
Raíces y tubérculos
Verduras
Frutas
Plantas vivas, flores y capullos
cortados; semillas de flores y
frutos; semillas de vegetales
Otros productos animales
Productos de la silvicultura y
extracción de madera
Pescado y otros productos de la
pesca
Otros minerales
Carne y prodcutos de la carne
Pescado preparado o en conserva
Legumbres preparadas o en
conserva; jugos de frutas y de
legumbres y frutas preparadas o en
conserva
Aceites y grasas animales y
vegetales
Productos de molineria
Preparados utilizados para la
alimentación de animales
Productos de panaderia
Azucar
Macarrones, fideos y productos
farináceos análogos
Productos lacteos
Productos alimenticios n.c.p.
Bebidas
alcohólicas
y
no
alcohólicas
Otras Industrias
Electricidad y agua
Alojamiento;
servicios
de
suministro de comidas y bebidas
Otros servicios
10.0
10.5
13.4
14.9
14.4
13.4
12.6
11.5
9.0
3.1
19.2
21.4
26.3
50.5
35.3
25.8
24.9
22.3
15.2
2.0
Urban nonpoor
52.3
49.4
42.8
13.1
31.4
41.8
41.8
46.6
57.2
82.7
Rural nonpoor
18.4
18.7
17.5
21.6
18.9
19.0
20.7
19.5
18.6
12.1
11.6
16.2
19.3
45.4
51.3
16.1
17.8
22.3
6.6
16.5
53.6
23.3
11.7
11.2
6.3
6.7
23.8
17.6
13.4
10.6
47.2
52.7
59.6
61.9
17.3
18.6
20.6
20.7
12.4
22.5
45.9
19.2
11.3
4.8
31.5
20.8
35.1
52.4
22.0
21.9
13.9
14.2
13.3
32.1
32.8
25.1
35.0
33.7
42.3
19.1
19.3
19.2
8.5
10.4
7.9
10.0
16.5
12.3
64.2
53.4
61.9
17.4
19.7
17.9
8.2
10.5
3.4
12.6
12.2
4.6
60.5
61.9
75.3
18.7
15.5
16.7
6.5
6.9
71.0
15.6
4 Methodology
4.1 The structure of a PEP 1x1 social accounting matrix
A SAM is a representation of the economy. Each cell in the matrix represents, by convention, a flow
of funds from a column account to a row account (Breisinger, Thomas and Thurlow, 2010). The
accounting principle of double-entry requires that for each account in the SAM, total revenue or row
total equals total expenditure, i.e. column total (Morley, Piñeiro y Flores, 2008). Table 1 shows an
aggregate SAM with an explanation instead of numbers with an adapted SAM for PEP 1-1 Model.
In the SAM for the PEP 1-1 structure there are six groups of accounts. It includes a set of factors of
production: labor and capital. It then features a group of agents that include household, government,
enterprises, rest of the world and taxes. Also included are various economic activities, and
accordingly, a set of commodities and entries for trade and transportation margins. The remaining
accounts in the SAM include investment and saving.
The PEP 1-1 model includes a set for “enterprises”, but since we did not have access to information
on transfers between enterprises and households, we chose not to include them. Also, the PEP 1-1
SAM has a section on exports. However, since we don’t have information to distinguish between
domestic and export production, we decided to include both of these cathegories with commodities.
4.2 Model
This version of PEP 1-1 Model has extensions made by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming) that
include specification of closures, number of employees by economic activity, definition of
simulations of shocks and policy scenarios and resource water. Closure specification includes option
to specify mobile capital or sector specific;
clearing variable in government closure could be
endogenous government savings, endogenous government consumption, endogenous direct tax on
households or endogenous indirect tax on commodities; closure of rest of the world could be by real
exchange rate adjustment or foreign savings; and savings-investment closure could be using fixed or
flexible investment. To take into consideration different remunerations of labor by economic activity,
in this extension was included the numbers of workers, to calculate a factor of wage differences across
all industries. Third, in this version was included an excel file to simulate different shocks or policy
scenarios, like increase in labor supply, changes in world price of exports and imports, change in
capital stock, changes in government consumption, decrease in taxes, subsidies on capital, decrease
in margins and changes in total factor productivity. Finally, this extension of the model includes water
as an economic factor whose price is zero if supply is greater than demand, but in the opposite
scenario, the model estimates a price for this scarce natural resource, simulating the existence of
market of water or internalizing the cost of provide water to economic activities.
It is important to explain what kind of macroeconomic closures we choose for this analysis. For export
demand we assume that Guatemala is always a small country or price taker in international markets,
and the external sector closure we suppose that we have limits to international finance and the
adjustment hast to be done via real exchange rate. We assume also that capital is mobile. Government
will adjust their consumption to maintain a level of savings, to incorporate costs of fiscal revenues
reduction, in a scenario where is very difficult to pass a tax reform. Finally, we assume that real
investment is fixed and savings has to be adjusted to maintain the same level of real gross fixed capital
formation.
Elasticities of consumption were estimated using micro-data of Encovi 2011. We use elasticities of
production close to those provided by the model and for value added we use those for GTAP
(Narayan, Badri, Aguiar and McDougall, 2012). Finally, for Armington and CET elasticities we use
estimations for similar economies to Guatemala, like Ecuador, Mexico and Filipinas, that were
compiled by Annabi, N., J. Cockburn and B. Decaluwé (2006)16.
16
See annex for detail and sensitivity analysis.
Table 11 - Basic structure of a sam for pep 1-1 model
Factors
Households
Enterprises
Government
Rest of
The world
Activities
Investment
Value Added
Factors
Households
Labor income
households
Enterprises
Profit and
Rental Income to
enterprises
to
Distributed
Profits and
Rental income
To households
Direct
household
Taxes
Government
Enterprise
Taxes
Transfer
to
households
Transfer
To
Enterprises
Govenrnment
Transfers to
RoW
Transfers
To
Households
From RoW
Profits of
Guatemalan
FDI
Transfers to
Government
From RoW
Activities
Commodities
Private
Consumption
Investment/Savings
Household
Savings
Household
Expenditures
Factor
expenditures
Source: adapted from Morley, Piñeiro y Flores (2008)
Enterprise
savings
Enterprise
Expenditures
Government
Consumption
Exports
Government
Savings
Government
Expenditures
Foreign
Savings
Foreign
Exchang
InFlow
Total
Factor
Income
Household
Income
Enterprise
Income
Profits
of
foreign
Enterprises in
Guatemala
Rest of the world
Total
Commodities
Sales tax,
import tariffs
Government
Income
Imports
Foreign
Exchange
Outflow
Marketed
outputs
Activity
Income
Total
Demand
Intermediate
inputs
Invesment,
Change in
Stocks
Savings
Activity
Expenditures
Total Supply
Investment
5 Application and results
5.1 Guatemala’s economic structure from the SAM
In this first section, we find important to describe the structure of the Guatemalan economy that can be
read from the constructed Social Accounting Matrix. This allows us to understand the impacts of the
various shocks that we have conducted in light of the real features of the Guatemalan economy.
5.1.1
Main productive sectors
The SAM shows that services generate the most value added for the economy, with 65.1% of the total.
Industry constitutes 20% of the remaining value added, out of which over 50% is related to the food
processing industry. Agricultural activities account for 11.9% of the added value and, of that percentage,
the majority is represented by agricultural production for seed, with 8.7%, followed by 2.1% in
agricultural food production and the remaining 1.1% in others. Activities under “other primary17”
industries represent 3.0% of the total value added.
Table 12 - Added value per sector (millions of Quetzales and percentage)
Sectors
VA
%
Agricultural production for feed
Other primary
29,906.3
7,268.9
3,831.4
10,505.5
8.7
2.1
1.1
3.0
Food industry
36,714.7
32,190.9
10.6
9.3
Other services
Total
224,979.1
345,396.8
65.1
100.0
Source: Social Accounting Matrix for Guatemala, 2011.
5.1.2
Activities focused on the external sector
Most of the exports are food products (36.1%), other industries at 15.4%, and other forestry products
with 9.9% of the exports. On the agricultural side, coffee and bananas are 9.2% and 3.7% of the exports,
followed by vegetables at 3.8% and fruits at 1.8%. The export percentage column in Table 13 below
shows that 68% of the coffee is exported, and that number is 40.2% for bananas, 79% for other animal
products, 65.8% for prepared or preserved fish, 56% for preparation used in animal feeding, and 55.9%
for food products.
On the imports side, the “Other Industries” category accounts for 80.2%, and “Other Services” accounts
for 6.3%. Agricultural products account for less than 5%, with maize at 1.3%. Most of national
consumption of cereals, at 67.8%, is imported. The “Other Industries” category shows 50.5% is
17
Other primary industries include extractive industries like mining and oil extraction.
imported, and 43.2% is imported for animal and vegetable oils and fats. Due to the importance of maize
in the Guatemalan diet, it’s important to emphasize that 15.2% of the national consumption is imported.
Table 13 - Exports and imports by commodity (percentage)
Commodities
c-coff
c-bana
c-maiz
c-bean
c-cerl
c-rotu
c-vege
c-frui
c-plan
c-milk
c-eggs
c-oanp
c-lena
c-otfr
c-fish
c-otmi
c-meat
c-fisp
c-vegp
c-oilp
c-molp
c-anip
c-brea
c-suga
c-maca
c-lact
c-oali
c-bebi
c-inot
c-elwa
c-reho
c-seot
Exports
9.2
3.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
3.8
1.8
1.2
0.0
0.0
3.4
0.6
9.9
0.4
0.3
0.8
2.7
0.3
0.3
0.6
5.5
0.2
0.1
2.1
0.9
36.1
0.2
15.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
% Export
production
68.0
40.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.7
8.1
16.0
13.7
0.3
0.7
79.0
10.2
42.5
23.1
4.8
3.7
65.8
11.7
4.3
2.8
56.0
0.6
1.0
43.5
6.9
55.9
4.0
6.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
Imports
% Imports
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.1
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.6
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.8
2.2
0.3
80.2
0.4
0.0
6.3
0.0
0.1
15.2
2.7
67.8
0.5
0.3
6.5
11.9
0.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
1.1
10.9
23.5
5.5
9.5
31.9
43.2
7.1
4.1
2.5
0.1
2.6
11.8
6.6
8.7
50.5
3.9
0.0
2.7
Note: Commodities: coff=coffee, bana=bananas, maiz=maize, bean=beans, cerl=cereals and legums, rotu= roots and tubers,
vege=vegetables, frui=fruits, plan=living plants; cut flowers and flower buds; flower seeds and fruit seeds; vegetable seeds,
milk=milk, egss=egss, oanp=other animal products, lena=firewood, otfr=other forestry and logging products, fish=fish and
fishery products, otmi=other minerals, meat= meat and meat products, fisp=fish prepared or preserved, vegp=prepared and
preserved vegetables, fruit juices and vegetable juices prepared and preserved, oilp=Animal and vegetable oils and fats,
molp=grain mill products, anip=preparation used in animal feeding, brea=bakery products, suga=sugar, maca=macaroni,
noodles and similar farinaceous products, lact= dairy products, oali=food products n.e.c, bebi=alcoholic and non-alcoholic
beverages, inot=other industries, elwa=water and electricity, reho=lodging; food and beverage serving services, seot=other
services.
5.1.3
Employment structure and earnings
Table 14 below shows that 55.5% of the value added is allocated to labor (29.1% skilled and 26.4%
unskilled), 41.9% to capital, 2% to land and 0.6% to natural resources. When looking at the details, over
58% of the participation across all agricultural activities is unskilled labor, followed to a much smaller
degree by capital and land. For other primaries, the participation of capital represents 48.7% of added
value, unskilled labor, 25.2%, natural resources, 19% and skilled labor, less than 10%.
On the food industry sector, the majority of the added value is allocated to skilled labor, at 37.4%, with
capital following closely at 35.5%, and lastly by unskilled labor at 27%. On other services sector, capital
is the largest percentage of the added value at 47%, followed by skilled labor at 33.7% and unskilled
labor at 19.4%.
Table 14 - Factorial composition of value added (percentage)
Sectors
Labor
Capital
Land
Natural
resources
Total
61.7
59.4
58.9
25.2
14.9
16.1
16.2
48.7
16.6
18.0
18.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
19.0
100
100
100
100
37.4
27.0
35.5
0.0
0.0
100
23.4
33.7
29.1
30.8
19.4
26.4
45.8
47.0
41.9
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
100
100
100
Skilled
Unskilled
Other primary
6.8
6.5
6.8
7.1
Food industry
Other services
Total
5.1.4
Household income
Non-poor households in urban areas account for 71.1% of the total income, while non-poor households
in rural areas account for 11.6%. The remaining 17.3% of the total income is accounted by poor
households, 9.8% in rural areas and 7.5% in urban areas.
Table 4 shows the distribution of income for each household group. It’s important to highlight that most
of the labor income of skilled workers corresponds to non-poor households in urban areas (83.4%), and
very little corresponds to non-poor rural households (9.0%). However, you can see that unskilled labor
is distributed across all household groups, especially non-poor urban ones.
For the capital income category, 95.3% corresponds to non-poor urban households, 3.4% to poor urban
households, and less than 2% to households in rural areas. More than 50% of land income corresponds
to non-poor households, 48.3% to rural areas and 2.7% to urban areas, while the remaining 49% is
distributed across poor households, in very similar proportion. For natural resources, 72.1% corresponds
to non-poor households in urban areas and 13% to non-poor households in rural areas. Almost 15% of
the remaining corresponds to poor households.
Table 15 - Distribution of income for each household group (percentage)
Household group
Urban poor
Labor
Skilled
Unskilled
Capital
Land
Natural
resources
4.9
15.6
3.4
25.0
8.8
Rural poor
Urban non-poor
Rural non-poor
Total
2.7
83.4
9.0
100.0
26.9
36.9
20.6
100.0
0.2
95.3
1.2
100.0
24.0
2.7
48.3
100.0
6.1
72.1
13.0
100.0
Total Millions Q
95,920.2
85,663.7
133,876.5
6,983.6
1,995.5
Table 16 shows income composition for each household group. For poor households in urban areas,
47.9% of their income corresponds to unskilled labor, followed in similar proportion by skilled labor
(16.9%) and capital (16.2%). Transfers from the rest of the world accounted for 8.1% of their income.
For poor households in rural areas, unskilled labor income represents the highest proportion of their
income (63.4%), followed by transfers from the rest of the world (15.8%) and government transfers
(8.2%). For non-poor rural households, labor income accounted for 61% of revenues, 41% for unskilled
and 20% for skilled labor. For this group of households, transfers from the rest of the world represent
just under a quarter of their income.
For non-poor households living in urban areas, capital income represents almost half their income, and
in less proportion, labor income accounts for 42.3%, as well as 30.3% for skilled labor and 12% for
unskilled workers. Transfers from the rest of the world accounted for 6.3% of their income, and
government transfers, for 2.5%.
It is important to note that although government transfers and transfers from the rest of the world
represent a smaller proportion of the income of non-poor urban households, in absolute terms income is
higher in this group of households.
Table 16 - Income composition for each household group (Percentage)
Household
group
Labor
Skilled
Unskilled
Urban poor
Rural poor
Urban non-poor
Rural non-poor
16.9
7.0
30.3
20.0
47.9
63.4
12.0
41.0
Capital
Land
Natural
resources
Governmen
t transfers
Transfers
RoW
16.2
0.6
48.3
3.7
6.3
4.6
0.1
7.8
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.6
4.0
8.2
2.5
3.2
8.1
15.8
6.3
23.6
5.1.5
Household consumption
Non-poor households from urban areas accounts for 59.5% of national consumption, and non-poor rural
households, just under a fifth (18.1%). While consumption of poor households accounts for 22.4% of
domestic consumption, 7.8% for households in urban areas and 14.6% in rural areas.
The composition of consumption for each household group shows below. It appears that for poor
households, food accounts for the largest share of consumption, mainly for poor rural households, food
accounts for 62.1% of its consumption. In the table we can see that for these poor rural households, beans
and corn account for more than 10% of its consumption.
For non-poor households, the proportion of food consumption is lower, specifically for non-poor
households in urban areas, where it represents less than a third (31.1%) of total consumption. For this
same group, services account for 44.8% of consumption. It is important to note that, although for nonpoor households in urban areas the proportion of consumption in corn and beans is less than for poor
rural households, 3% compared to 11.5%, in absolute terms, the consumption of corn and bean in nonpoor households in urban areas is higher than in poor rural households.
Table 17 - Consumption composition of each household group (percentage)
0.0
Urban nonpoor
0.0
Rural nonpoor
0.0
1.4
4.3
3.8
0.2
2.4
7.0
1.7
1.5
4.7
6.8
0.3
2.5
7.4
1.7
0.6
2.6
0.4
0.1
1.0
3.0
0.9
0.8
3.3
2.4
0.1
1.5
4.9
1.2
c-plan
c-milk
c-eggs
0.2
0.1
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.3
1.3
0.2
0.1
1.0
c-oanp
c-lena
c-otfr
0.0
1.3
1.6
0.0
1.2
2.3
0.0
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.9
0.9
c-fish
c-otmi
c-meat
c-fisp
c-vegp
c-oilp
0.5
0.1
6.0
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.1
6.5
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.1
3.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
3.8
0.2
0.6
1.1
c-molp
c-anip
c-brea
5.3
0.2
4.8
5.1
0.3
11.1
2.5
0.1
6.8
3.5
0.2
9.4
c-suga
c-maca
c-lact
3.1
0.8
4.0
3.8
1.0
4.0
1.0
0.3
1.7
1.8
0.5
2.5
c-oali
2.4
1.5
2.4
2.2
c-bebi
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.2
c-inot
c-elwa
c-reho
c-seot
Total
22.5
1.0
8.4
12.8
100.0
18.7
0.8
5.2
9.3
100.0
23.0
1.0
6.5
37.3
100.0
21.9
1.0
5.3
27.3
100.0
Urban poor
Rural poor
c-coff
0.0
c-bana
c-maiz
c-bean
c-cerl
c-rotu
c-vege
c-frui
5.1.6
Margins
Margins of transport, trade and electricity were included in the Social Accounting Matrix. It is important
to note that for some agricultural products, like vegetables, cereals, fuel food, maize, roots and tubers,
as well as beans, margins are even greater than the basic price for these commodities.
Table 18 – Margin rates
Margin rates
More than 1.6
1.6> margin > 1.15
1.15> margin > 1
1>margin>0.6
0.6>margin>0.4
Margin<0.4
Products
Vegetables
Cereals, fuel wood, Maize
Roots and tubers, Beans
Fruits, other animal products, fish
Banana, Dairy products
Egss, other industries, cofee, bread, milk, beveragest, others
Source: PEP 1-1 calculations based on Social Accounting Matrix for Guatemala, 2011.
5.2 Results from simulations
In this section we present the results from simulating a) an increase in international food prices; b) a
reduction in productivity due to climate change; c) the effects of drought in agriculture; d) a reduction
of transportation margins; and e) agricultural incentive policies.
5.2.1
Increase in international food prices
An increase in international food prices could have two effects. We could see a positive impact on
activities that export these kinds of goods, but a negative effect in the cost of the basic food basket for
households, as well as intermediate inputs for industries.
We first see an increase in output and value added for agriculture for seed (0.5) and agriculture for food
(2.7), but a negative effect on total aggregate output of other industries. These changes in the level of
production are determined by the relative importance of exports in production, substitution between local
and imported goods, as well as an indirect effect due to appreciation of real exchange rates.
For those goods that are oriented to exports, production increases, as well as for those that have high
degree of substitution between local and imported goods. We also see that industries that use agricultural
products as inputs would end up having a negative impact due to increase in their costs, as is the case for
the industrial food processing industries.
Figure 1 - Total aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of increase in world food prices (% change)
Services
0.5
Other Industries
-1.1
Industrial Food
-0.5
Other primary activities
-6.4
Other Agriculture
-10.6
Agriculture for food
2.7
Agriculture for seed
0.5
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Source: own calculations based on PEP 1-1 Model and extensions by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming)
2
4
Additional to the effects mentioned above, we also found indirect effects due to the appreciation of the
real exchange rate. In this case, its behavior was affected by an increase in the surplus of the Current
Account of the Balance of Payments (foreign savings) in local currency. So, in order to maintain the
same level of foreign financing to the Guatemalan economy in dollars, there had to be a balance in the
form of an appreciation of the real exchange rate (5.3%). This appreciation had an indirect effect of
diminishing the growth of exports and increasing the imports of some goods that became cheaper (see
Table 19). In agriculture for seed, we observed a net positive increase of export products, but a decline
in production for local markets, explained by international prices. Finally, in other agriculture, we
observed negative impacts on exports and production for domestic market.
Table 19 - Exports and imports by product (% change)
Import Export
Coffee
3
0
Bananas
1.9
1.1
Maize
3.3
48.3
Beans
0.8
4.9
Cereals
-0.3
61.5
Roots & Tubers
1.8
39.4
Vegetables
1.2
44.6
Fruits
2.3
15.9
Other agriculture products
11
-19.9
Mining
2.9
-7.9
Meat
3.6
-11.8
Industrial foods
3.3
-6.5
Other industrial products
1.6
-3
Services
3.4
-2.8
The surplus in the current account in local currency was reduced through depreciation of the exchange
rate and a reduction in net exports. The net effect was a reduction in the volume of exports and an increase
of imports in real terms, but with a reduction in nominal terms due to depreciation of real exchange rate
(See Table 20). Even if investment did not change in real terms, due to depreciation and lower price of
imports, it still fell in nominal terms and as percentage of nominal GDP. Absorption increased because
private and government consumption rose in nominal and real terms. Moreover, because of higher prices
of imports and domestic goods, combined with a higher income of households, and thus and increase in
tax revenue, the government could increase its consumption without affecting the level of public savings
in real terms.
Table 20 - GDP table (% change)
Nominal
Absorption
Private Consumption
Real
GDP
share
0.7
1.2
1.1
1.3
-0.2
0.4
Fixed Investment
Stock Change
Government
Consumption
Exports
Imports
-2.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.8
-3.2
-0.5
-0.6
-3.1
-2.6
-2.1
2.0
-4.0
-3.5
GDPMP
NetIndTax
GDPFC
0.9
-1.1
-1.4
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-2.3
However, consumption did not grow for all types of households. As a result of the rise of international
food prices, prices of local composite goods (domestic and imported) increased in agricultural foods in
more than 8%. The rise in price of local goods was dampened by an appreciation of the real exchange
rate. However, the consumption of vulnerable households, like the rural poor were affected negatively
by this shock. Consumption agricultural foods, like maize, bean, cereals, fruits, vegetables, banana and
coffee, saw a reduction. There was a reduction of consumption of some agricultural goods in non-poor
urban households. The pressing conclusion is that an increase of international food prices would
represent a threat to food security of the most vulnerable group in Guatemala. Nevertheless, the
consumption of processed foods would increase in this scenario, which would offset the consumption of
agricultural goods.
Table 21 - Agricultural goods: Price and consumption by household type (% change)
Price
Coffee
Bananas
Maize
Beans
Cereals
Roots
&
Tubers
Vegetables
Fruits
Processed
food
Others
13.7
12.4
8.7
9.1
11.7
8.7
9.0
11.3
-0.4
0.6
Consumption by type of household
Urban Poor
1.6
1.8
0.0
1.1
2.4
2.7
3.1
2.5
3.6
6.2
Rural Poor
-0.6
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.5
1.0
2.0
Urban Non
Poor
Urban Poor
-2.7
-2.6
0.0
-0.9
-3.0
-2.3
-2.6
-3.0
-0.4
0.0
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.4
2.2
2.6
2.7
1.8
4.2
5.8
In this scenario, the consumption budget and disposable income increased for most households, with the
exception of urban non-poor households. This was a result of labor intensity of agriculture for food and
agriculture for seed, abundant in unskilled workers, which increased demand for this type of workers in
rural areas. However, because of the lower wages in agriculture, the mean wages of the Guatemalan
economy would see a reduction after this shock, especially for unskilled workers (see Table 22). As a
net effect, we observed a rise in disposable income for the rural poor (4.1%), the urban poor (5.9%) and
the rural non-poor (8.1%), with a decrease for non-poor urban households (-1.2%).
In order to mantain the same levels of investment, households would have to increase their levels of
savings,18 with an increased disposable income and a reduction in the consumption of some goods. This
is not exactly the behavior that we expected in recent years, because domestic saving has been down19.
Nevertheless, this gives us the idea of the efforts that the country has to undertake in order to recover the
levels of investment of 2011.
Table 22 - Demand and remunerations of production factors (% change)
Agriculture
for seed
Agriculture
for food
Other
Agriculture
Other
primary
activities
Industrial
Food
Other
Industries
Services
Skilled labor
0.1
2.3
-10.9
-7.1
-0.8
-1.4
0.3
Unskilled labor
0.5
2.7
-10.6
-6.8
-0.4
-1.0
0.7
Capital
0.3
2.5
-10.8
-8.5
-0.4
-1.1
0.6
Land
0.7
2.9
-10.4
Skilled labor Wages
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
Unskilled labor Wages
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
Rental of Capital
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
Rental of Land
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
Demand
Remunerations
Rental of Natural
Resources
-13.1
5.2.2
Reduction in productivity due to climate change
As we mentioned before, climate change could have negative effects in agriculture productivity. Under
this scenario we saw negative results in production, exports, wages and reduction of government
spending and revenue. Besides negative effects of food security due to the diminished production and
consumption of agricultural goods, our figures show that the effects of climate change could increase
inequality, because the wages of unskilled labor would see a reduction as a result of an increase of capital
income and skilled labor wages.
In this case, we registered an important drop in the value added of agriculture for food, agriculture for
seed, as well as a slight drop in that of industrial food production and the service industry. It is important
to take into consideration that in this scenario we observed a fall in real GDP (1.2%), as can be seen in
Table 23. Those products that are oriented to international markets saw a decrease, because goods like
maize, bean, root and tubers have a lower fall rate compared with coffee, bananas and fruits. This could
18
Because investment remained fixed and household savings is endogenous
According to estimations of Cabrera, M. (2015), domestic saving saw a reduction from 3.7% of GDP in 2004-2008 to 3.6%
of GDP in 2010-2013, see Table No.4, page. 18.
19
be explained with the fact that lower productivity would translate into less competitiveness in
international markets. Exports in real terms fell by 2.1%, but also we observed a decrease in imports of
1.5% in real terms. It is important to note that a depreciation of the real exchange rate contributed to the
reduction of the negative impacts on external sectors. Another problem that we could see with reduction
of productivity is that fiscal space was reduced. As an effect, government expenditure had to be reduced
in view of lower tax revenues. There was also less income of households and less consumption.
Absorption
Private Consumption
Fixed Investment
Stock Change
Government Consumption
Exports
Imports
GDPMP
NetIndTax
GDPFC
Nominal
-1.3
-1.4
-0.8
0.5
-1.9
-1.0
-0.5
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
Real
-1.1
-1.4
0.0
-0.5
-2.1
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
GDP share
0.2
0.2
0.8
2.1
-0.3
0.5
1.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
Figure 2 - Aggregate ouput by industry in scenario of decrease of TFP (% change)
Services
-0.9
Other Industries
0.0
Industrial Food
-0.8
4.4
Other Agriculture
12.7
Agriculture for food -7.8
-7.1
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Due to higher prices and lower income of households, lower productivity translates into a drop in
consumption of agricultural goods for each type of household. The exception was Maize, because its
consumption only fell in rural areas. However, this result could affect food security of the most
vulnerable population of Guatemala. Beans, which are also important for the Guatemalan diet, showed
a decrease in consumption for all types of households. This behavior is not only the result of higher
prices, but also of because of a decrease in household incomes for all categories; especially the urban
non-poor (1.8%). This could be expected because a drop in productivity could affect wages negatively,
and more so for skilled labor.
Price
Cofee
Bananas
Maize
Beans
Cereals
Roots
&
Tubers
Vegetables
Fruits
Processed
food
Others
3.9
9.2
3.7
5.9
1.6
5.2
3.2
3.8
0.7
-0.1
Urban
Poor
Rural Poor
-1.4
-2.0
0.0
-0.8
-1.4
-1.8
-1.8
-1.8
-1.2
-1.3
-1.2
-1.7
-0.9
-1.1
-1.5
-1.8
-1.7
-1.5
-0.8
-1.1
Urban Non
-2.1
-3.0
0.0
-1.1
-2.1
-2.7
-2.6
-2.6
-1.6
Poor
Urban
-0.9
-1.6
-0.7
-0.9
-0.8
-1.5
-1.1
-1.1
-0.2
Poor
-1.8
-0.2
We observed a deterioration of the external sector. First, we identified a sharp drop in exports, especially
in cereals, maize, fruits, vegetables, coffee and banana. Because local prices were highter, some of them
were replaced by imports, like maize and banana. This situation, however, was moderated by a
depreciation of the real exchange rate, in order to sustain the same level of deficit in the current account.
5.2.3
Effects of drought on agriculture
This version of PEP 1-1 Model contains an extension made by Cicowiez and Banerjee (forthcoming) to
analyze effects of shortage of supply of water or drought. We analyze the effects on agricultural
industries. In this scenario, agricultural sectors, which use this resource more intensely, were the most
affected. Due to the fact that the use of water is concentrated in agriculture for seed and in other
agriculture (see next figure), most negative effects are concentrated in these industries. In contrast, other
economic activities that did not use water as an important input would not be affected. Another important
effect was the climb in food prices, the reduction of wages of unskilled labor, and the reduction of income
for rural households.
Figure 3 - Water use by industry (% total)
1%
15%
21%
59%
Other Agriculture
Industrial Food
Other Industries
Services
Households
Source: own calculations based SEEA (Ine & Iarna, 2015)
Note: includes use of registered and unregistered water.
There was a drop in private consumption, both in real as well as nominal terms in this scenario. This was
closely linked to the reduction in disposable income of the urban non-poor households; a group
responsible for more than 70% of total household consumption. And although labor income saw a
reduction in all kinds of households, it fell only 8% for the urban non-poor, in contrast to more than 10%
for the other categories.
Nominal
-1.1
-0.5
-5.0
6.9
-0.8
4.2
3.8
-1.6
-2.1
-8.7
Absorption
Private Consumption
Fixed Investment
Stock Change
Government Consumption
Exports
Imports
GDPMP
NetIndTax
GDPFC
Real
0.5
-0.3
0.0
7.4
0.2
-0.1
0.6
1.3
GDP share
0.4
1.0
-3.5
8.6
0.8
5.9
5.5
0.0
-0.5
-7.2
Compared to previous scenarios, we observed larger effects of drought in agriculture for seed and other
agriculture (see next figure). However, although water is an important input for agriculture for seed, due
to low intensity of use, drought could have been beneficial to this sector, because production from
agriculture for seed could migrate to these activities. Also, value added of other primary activities would
have risen, because the use of water of this sector is lower than agriculture for seed. This sector, however,
is not important in total value added share and in total employment. Industries and services would not
be affected by this shock.
Figure 4 - Change in value added by sector, by simulation scenario
40
30.2
30
21.8
20
12.7
8.5
10
0.5
4.4
2.6
3.3
0
0.5
1.9
0
-0.7-0.8
-10
-7.1
-7.8
-0.9
-1.1
-6.5
-10.7
-20
-30
-25.4
Agriculture for Agriculture for
Seed
Food
-22.1
Other
Agriculture
Other Primary
Industrial Other Industries
Activities
processed food
Increase in world food prices
Climate change
Services
Drought
In drought scenario we would observe a sharp increase in agricultural for seed products, especially for
bananas, roots and tubers, and beans. This situation could happen because a small share of these products
are imported and have a low degree of substitution between local and imported goods. In this scenario
we observe an important increase in imports, GDP share increases from 37.4 to 39.4%. This is a result
of higher prices of domestically produced goods and a sharp depreciation of real exchange rate (7.6%).
Depreciation of real exchange rate is the result of an important increase in the current account deficit,
due to a displacement of purchases from local to imported goods. In this situation, depreciation helped
contain increased demand for imports, and improved the performance of exports for products other than
agriculture for seed and other agriculture (processed foods and services).
Table 26 - Exports and imports by product (% change)
Roots
Other
Other
&
agriculture
Industri industrial
Coffee Bananas Maize Beans Cereals T ubers Vegetables Fruits products Mining Meat al foods products Services
Import
28.1
Exports -59.8
63.0
64.0
16.2
9.7
38.5
-53.3 -82.5 -30.3
-79.5
-88.3
7.9
27.3
10.8
3.0
3.5
3.3
1.6
3.5
-81.4 -81.1
-6.2
35.7
-7.0
12.8
14.9
13.2
Due to drought effects, wages reported a sharp decline, especially for un-skilled labor (18.1%) and for
skilled labor (6.3%). However, the biggest negative impact was on the demand for land, which fell 41%.
The intuition behind this is that activities that are intensive in the use of land are also intensive in the use
of water. However, the use of other natural resources utilized in other primary activities, like extractive
industries, increase. As a result, the net effect was a decline in urban non-poor household income and a
rise in that of other households, especially for the rural non-poor. That was because unskilled labor is
more representative in agricultural activities. In contrast, the wage rate of skilled increased, as did the
demand for capital. This could have affected negatively poverty and inequality.
5.2.4
Reduction of margins of transport
We analyzed the impacts of a reduction of transport margins. According to Dumitrescu, Smith, and
Osborne (2015), an estimated 26% of logistic costs could be reduced if the country invested in the six
main international routes. We applied a reduction in costs to margins in SAM corresponding with those
ideas, despite the fact that margins included commerce and electricity as well, but we assumed that the
reduction of logistic costs could help to reduce the monopolistic power of those involved in trade.
Because agricultural activities are not intensive in the use of electricity, we assumed that only margins
of trade and transport were effectively reduced.
A policy that reduced margins could have great benefits to the Guatemalan economy in terms of an
increase in the level of production, exports, consumption of food and exports. As we can see in the next
table, this scenario was beneficial in terms of an increase of GDP (2.9%), consumption (2.9%), exports
(2.9% in real terms) and government consumption (3.1% in real terms). The government would increase
its expenditure given an increase in net indirect taxes, with unchanged government savings in this
scenario.
Nominal
Absorption
Private Consumption
Fixed Investment
Stock Change
Government
Consumption
Exports
Imports
GDPMP
NetIndTax
GDPFC
Real
2.6
2.9
0.6
2.3
3.4
2.5
2.9
0.0
4.5
3.3
2.9
2.1
0.6
2.9
1.8
2.9
3.1
0.1
GDP
share
-0.2
0.0
-2.2
-0.6
0.5
1.6
0.5
0.0
-0.7
-2.2
Most important increase in economic activity will be in Agriculture for food, in less degree in industries
and other primary activities. Services will reduce their level of activity because payments of margins
will not go to these activities. It is important to notice the reduction in levels of output of other
agriculture, because of a reduction in other forestry products, whose margins and their elasticity of
consumption are low.
Figure 5 - Change in total output by sector
Services
-1.0
Other Industries
2.3
Industrial Food
3.1
2.0
Other Agriculture
-2.9
8.1
0.1
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Due to the fact that a reduction of margins would benefit agriculture for feed, demand of production
factors woluld go to this activity (see Table). And their intensiveness in unskilled labor would result in
an increase in their remuneration. Demand for land and capital would have increased in agriculture for
food, and the remuneration of land would increase as a result. The reduction of margins would be
beneficial to the disposable income of the rural non-poor (9.4%), the urban poor (7.8%) and the rural
poor (6.0%). Even the urban poor would increase their disposable income (0.5%). So, this scenario
could be beneficial for the reduction of poverty and inequality.
Agriculture
for seed
Agriculture
for food
Other
Agriculture
Other
primary
activities
Industrial
Food
Other
Industries
Services
Demand
Skilled labor
Unskilled labor
Capital
Land
Remunerations
Skilled labor Wages
1.0
0.1
1.1
-1.2
9.1
8.2
9.3
6.8
-2.0
-2.9
-1.8
-4.1
2.8
1.9
2.8
3.5
2.6
3.2
2.7
1.8
2.5
-0.7
-1.6
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Unskilled labor
Wages
Rental of Capital
Rental of Land
Rental of Natural
Resources
Household Income
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.4
3.8
0.4
3.8
0.4
3.8
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Urban Poor
Rural Poor
Urban Non Poor
Urban Poor
4.4
-0.6
-0.2
-1.8
-0.3
5.2.5
Agricultural incentive policies
In our last scenario we simulated a subsidy of 25% for capital used in the agricultural sector, and as we
can see, this situation didn’t have a significant impact on GDP, but it did have a small positive effect on
private consumption and exports, as well as a reduction in government consumption.
Nominal
Absorption
Private Consumption
Fixed Investment
Stock Change
Government
Consumption
Exports
Imports
GDPMP
NetIndTax
GDPFC
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
-3.9
0.7
0.5
0.1
-6.4
-0.6
Real
0.1
0.5
0.0
-4.0
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.1
GDP
share
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.1
-4.0
0.6
0.4
0.0
-6.5
-0.7
Most of the benefits in this case went to agriculture for food, and we saw an increase in the level of
output of other industries (manufactures). This increase in the output of this sectors is explained by a
reduction in prices of intermediate consumption of these activities. This reduction of intermediate costs
in addition to a subsidy of capital income gave a boost to agriculture for food.
Figure 6 - Change in total output by sector
Services
-0.2
Other Industries
0.4
Industrial Food
0.7
0.2
Other Agriculture
-0.1
3.0
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
As a result of more output in agriculture for food, we observed an increase in demand for capital, land,
and unskilled labor. Unskilled labor, however, saw its wages reduced, because agriculture for seed and
other agriculture reduced their demand for this kind of workers. In contrast, skilled labor increased their
remuneration.
Agriculture
for seed
Agriculture
for food
Other
Agriculture
Other
primary
activities
Industrial
Food
Other
Industries
Demand
Skilled labor
-2.1
0.7
-2.3
-0.1
0.8
Unskilled labor
-1.5
1.3
-1.7
0.5
1.4
Capital
8.8
11.9
8.5
0.2
0.2
Land
-0.5
2.3
-0.8
0.0
0.0
Remunerations
Skilled labor Wages
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Unskilled labor Wages
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
Household Income
Urban Poor
1.1
Rural Poor
0.6
Urban Non Poor
0.3
Rural Non Poor
1.3
Services
0.6
1.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.6
-0.6
0.0
0.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.7
Despite subsidies, we didn’t observe lower prices for food. Disposable income of household increased,
nevertheless, due to more income from capital, and that resulted in an increase of food consumption for
some products, but of less than 1% in most cases. In aggregate terms, this policy only increased private
consumption by 0.38% of GDP and it reduced net indirect taxes by almost 0.44% of GDP, with a
subsequent drop of 0.4% in government consumption. It is likely that other policies could achieve the
same results at a lower cost.
Cofee
Bananas
Maize
Beans
Cereals
Roots
&
Tubers
0.5
Vegetables
Fruits
Processed
food
Price
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
Urban Poor
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.4
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.0
Rural Poor
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
Urban Non Poor
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
Rural Non Poor
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
Others
-0.7
-0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.9
1.3
0.5
0.4
0.9
6 Conclusions and policy implications
In this study, we used a Computable General Equilibrium model of the Guatemalan economy to conduct
simulations for a) an increase in international food prices; b) a reduction in productivity due to climate
change; c) the effects of drought in agriculture; d) a reduction of transportation margins; and e)
agricultural incentive policies.
In the case of an increase in international food prices we could see a positive impact on activities that
export these kinds of goods, but a negative effect in the cost of the basic food basket for households, as
well as intermediate inputs for industries. However, we would see a spike in production for those goods
that are oriented to exports, as well as for those that have high degree of substitution between local and
imported. Even if investment would not change in real terms, due to depreciation and lower price of
imports, it would still fall in nominal terms and as percentage of nominal GDP. Because of the lower
wages in agriculture, the mean wages of the Guatemalan economy would see a reduction after this shock,
especially for unskilled workers.
As for a foreseen reduction in productivity due to climate change, we registered an important drop in the
value added of agriculture for food, agriculture for seed, as well as a slight drop in that of industrial food
production and the service industry. Under this scenario we could expect a fall in real GDP of 1.2%. The
reduction of productivity could mean a reduced fiscal space, and a reduction in government expenditure
because of lower tax revenues. Due to higher prices and lower income of households, this scenario could
mean that consumption of agricultural goods for each type of household would be reduced in a relevant
manner, with the exception of maize, which fell only in rural areas. Beans, which are also important for
the Guatemalan diet, would show a decrease in consumption for all types of households. This is bad
news in terms of food security of the most vulnerable population of Guatemala.
The effects of drought could mean that the most negative effects would on agriculture for seed and in
other agriculture (see next figure), due to their higher use of water. This would result in a climb in food
prices, the reduction of wages of unskilled labor, and the reduction of income for rural households. As a
result disposable income of the urban non-poor households would be reduced; a group responsible for
more than 70% of total household consumption. In this scenario we could observe an important increase
in imports, with a GDP share that would increase from 37.4 to 39.4%. This would come as a result of
higher prices of domestically produced goods and a sharp depreciation of real exchange rate.
A policy that reduced margins could have great benefits to the Guatemalan economy in terms of an
increase in the level of production, exports, consumption of food and exports. This scenario would be
beneficial in terms of an increase of GDP (2.9%), consumption (2.9%), exports (2.9% in real terms) and
government consumption (3.1% in real terms). The government would increase its expenditure given
an increase in net indirect taxes, with unchanged government savings.
Finally, in our last scenario we simulated a subsidy of 25% for capital used in the agricultural sector, and
this situation didn’t have a significant impact on GDP, but it did have a small positive effect on private
consumption and exports, as well as a reduction in government consumption. In aggregate terms, this
policy would only increase private consumption by 0.38% of GDP and it would reduce net indirect taxes
by almost 0.44% of GDP, with a subsequent drop of 0.4% in government consumption. It is likely that
other policies could achieve the same results at a lower cost.
7 References
Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012). World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA
working paper, 12(03).
Amsden, Alice. (2001). The Rise of “The Rest” : Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing
Economies: Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies. Oxford University Press.
Bourguignon, François, Maurizio Bussolo y Luis A. Pereira da Silva (2008). The Impact of
Macroeconomic Policies on poverty and income distribution. Macro-Micro evaluation techniques
and tools. Palgrave Macmillan and the World Bank, New York and Washington, D.C.
Cabrera, M. (2015), “Estudio de los impactos de las reformas tributarias y de gasto público sobre el
crecimiento y la inversión en Guatemala, Nicaragua y Panamá”, Macroeconomía para el Desarrollo
Series, No. 168.
Cabrera, Maynor and Manuel Delgado (2010). Implicaciones de la política macroeconómica, los choques
externos y los sistemas de protección social en la pobreza, la desigualdad y la vulnerabilidad en
América Latina y el Caribe. Guatemala. CEPAL, 2010.
Cicowiez, M. & O. Banerjee (forthcoming), “General equilibrium and economic-environmental
accounts”, document prepared for Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)
Cicowiez, Martin and Marco Sanchez (2010). Choques externos y Políticas de Protección Social en
América Latina. Documento de Trabajo Nro. 105. Cedlas, Universidad de la Plata, Argentina.
Comisión Económica para América Latina y El Caribe. (2013). Impactos potenciales del cambio
climático sobre los granos básicos en Centroamérica. México DF.
CONADUR/SEGEPLAN (2014). Plan Nacional de Desarrollo K’atun: nuestra Guatemala 2032.
Consejo Nacional de Desarrollo Urbano y Rural; Secretaría de Planificación y Programación de la
Presidencia, Guatemala.
Conforti, P. (2011). Looking ahead in world food and agriculture: perspectives to 2050. Rome: Food
and Agriculture Organization.
Decreaux, Y.; & Valin, H. (2007). MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis.
Focus on Agriculture Dynamics.
Dervis, Kemal, Jaime de Melo and Sherman Robinson (1982). General Equilibrium Models for
Development Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Dumitrescu, Anca C.; Smith, Graham; Osborne, Theresa K.. (2015), “Guatemala - Elements of a
transport and logistics strategy”. Washington, DC ; World Bank Group.
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23175327/guatemala-elements-transportlogistics-strategy
Economist Intelligence Unit. (2014). Food security in focus: Central and South America 2014. The
Economist.
FAO (n/d). System of Environmental and Economic Accounts for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. United Nations Statistical
Division. Retrieved from: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/aff/chapterList.asp
Food and Agriculture Organization. (2015). Regional Overview of Food Insecurity, Latin America and
the Caribbean. Santiago de Chile: FAO.
Gornall, J., Betts, R., Burke, E., Clark, R., Camp, J. Willet, J. & A. Wiltshire (2010), “Implications of
climate change for agricultural productivity in early twenty-first century”, Philosophical transactions
of the Royal Society B, September 2010, Volume 365 Issue 1554.
IARNA-URL/FAUSAC (2013). Evaluación del Programa de Fertilizantes del Ministerio de Agricultura,
Ganadería y Alimentación (MAGA). Instituto de Agricultura, Recursos Naturales y Ambiente,
Universidad Rafael Landívar; Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala.
Guatemala.
INE (2002). Censos Nacionales, XI de Población y VI de Habitación, 2002.
INE, Banguat y Iarna-URL (2013). Sistema de Contabilidad Ambiental y Económica de Guatemala
2001-2010, SCAE 2001-2010. Tomo I. Guatemala.
Instituto Nacional de Bosques / Programa Forestal Nacional [INAB/PFN] (2013). Ley de Fomento al
establecimiento, recuperación, restauración, manejo, producción y protección de bosques en
Guatemala – PROBOSQUE. Guatemala: Secretaría Técnica del Instituto Nacional de Bosques.
International Food Policy Research Institute. (2016). Food policy in a complex, changing world. Event
synopsis. Washington DC.
Kreft, S., Eckstein, D., Dorsch, L., & Fischer, L. (2015). Global Climate Risk Index 2016. Bonn:
Germanwatch.
Llop Llop, Maria & Ponce Alifonso, Xavier, 2011. "A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water
policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia," Working Papers 2072/152139, Universitat Rovira i Virgili,
Department of Economics.
Lofgren, Hans, Martin Cicowiez and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla (2013). MAMS – A Computable General
Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis. In: Dixon, P.B., Jorgenson, D.W.
(Eds.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling. North Holland, Elsevier B.V., pp.
159–276.
Lofgren, Hans, Rebecca Lee Harris y Sherman Robinson (2002). A Standard Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Microcomputers in Policy Research 5.
Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación [MAGA] (2013). Política de Promoción del riego
2013-2023. Guatemala: author.
Robles M. & M. Keefe (2011), “The effects of changing food prices on welfare and poverty in
Guatemala”, Development in Practice 21(4-5): 578-589.
Rosegrant, M., Koo, J., Cenacchi, N., Ringler, C., Robertson, R., Fisher, M., . . . Sabbagh, P. (2014).
Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity, The Role of Agricultural Technologies.
Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Torero, M., & Robles, M. (2010). Understanding the Impact of High Food Prices in Latin America.
Economía, 10(2), 117-164.
UNDP (2012). Guatemala: ¿un país de oportunidades para la juventud?. Informe Nacional de Desarrollo
Humano, UNDP Guatemala.
United Nations. (2015). The Millenium Development Goals Report 2015. New York: Department of
Economic and Social Affairs .
United Nations. (2016). Millennium Development Goals Indicators. Retrieved from http://mdgs.un.org/
Vásquez, William (2008). Guatemala. In: Vos, R., Ganuza, E., Lofgren, H., Sánchez, M.V., DíazBonilla, C. (Eds) (2008). Políticas Públicas para el Desarrollo Humano: ¿Cómo lograr los Objetivos
de Desarrollo del Milenio en América Latina y el Caribe? Uqbar and UNDP. UNDP, UN-DESA and
World Bank, Washington, DC, pp. 451-476.
Vos, Rob and Marcho Sanchez (2010). A Non-Parametric Microsimulation Approach to Assess Changes
in Inequality and Poverty. International Journal of Microsimulations.
Wissema, W., & Dellink, R. (2007). AGE analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the Irish
Economy. Ecological Economics, 61(4), 671-683. doi:16/j.ecolecon.2006.07.034
World Food Program. (2011, october). 11 Myths About Global Hunger. Retrieved from
https://www.wfp.org/stories/11-myths-about-global-hunger
Yu, B., You, L., & Fan, S. (2010). Toward a Typology of Food Security in Developing Countries. IFPRI
Discussion Paper 945.
8 Annex
8.1 Household expenditure detail
Table 32 - Household expenditure –Encovi 2011 variables
1
Bananos
Bananos
Data Base
Survey
Base alimentos
2
Café
Café
Base alimentos
101
3
Maiz
Maiz
Base alimentos
21
4
Frijol
Frijol
Base alimentos
19
5
Cereals
legumbres
y
6
Raíces
tubérculos
y
Arroz
Tomate
Arveja
Ejote
Güisquil (unidad)
Papas (libra)
Yuca (unidad)
Cebolla (libra)
Chiles (libra)
Repollo (unidad)
Zanahoria (unidad)
Lechuga (unidad)
Pepino (unidad)
Remolacha (unidad)
Ajo (cabeza)
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
20
57
71
74
62
69
70
58
59
60
61
63
64
65
66
7
Verduras
Hierbas (berro, perejil,
yerbabuena,macuy,
bledo, chipilín, etc.
(manojo)
Base alimentos
67
Hierbas
(berro,
yerbabuena,macuy,
chipilín, etc. (manojo)
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
68
72
73
75
76
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
Apio (unidad)
Brócoli (unidad)
Coliflor (unidad)
Güicoy (unidad)
Plátanos (unidad)
Naranjas (unidad)
Piñas (unidad)
Manzanas (libra)
Sandías (unidad)
Mangos (unidad)
Limones (unidad)
Frutas secas (libra)
Aguacates (unidad)
Papayas (unidad)
Melones (unidad)
Base alimentos
88
Duraznos/melocotones (unidad)
No.
8
Commodities
Frutas
Apio (unidad)
Brócoli (unidad)
Coliflor (unidad)
Güicoy (unidad)
Plátanos (unidad)
Naranjas (unidad)
Piñas (unidad)
Manzanas (libra)
Sandías (unidad)
Mangos (unidad)
Limones (unidad)
Frutas secas (libra)
Aguacates (unidad)
Papayas (unidad)
Melones (unidad)
Duraznos/melocotones
(unidad)
Code
Description
77
Bananos/guineos (unidad)
Café en grano, molido,
instantáneo (libra)
Maiz (blanco, amarillo, etc.)
(libra)
Frijol (negro, blanco, colorado,
etc.) (libra)
Arroz (de1ra. o 2da.) (libra)
Tomate (libra)
Arveja (libra)
Ejotes (libra)
Güisquil (unidad)
Papas (libra)
Yuca (unidad)
Cebolla (libra)
Chiles (libra)
Repollo (unidad)
Zanahoria (unidad)
Lechuga (unidad)
Pepino (unidad)
Remolacha (unidad)
Ajo (cabeza)
perejil,
bledo,
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Plantas vivas,
flores
y
capullos
cortados;
semillas de
flores
y
frutos;
semillas de
vegetales
Otros
productos
animales
Productos de
la silvicultura
y extracción
de madera
Pescado
y
otros
productos de
la pesca
Otros
minerales
Carne
y
productos de
carne
Pescado
preparado o
en conserva
Legumbres
preparadas o
en conserva;
jugos
de
frutas y de
legumbres y
frutas
preparadas o
en conserva
Fresas (libra)
Mandarinas (unidad)
Peras (unidad)
Uvas (libra)
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
89
90
91
92
Fresas (libra)
Mandarinas (unidad)
Peras (unidad)
Uvas (libra)
Plantas vivas, flores y
capullos
cortados;
semillas de flores y
frutos; semillas de
vegetales
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
10
Adornos como floreros, plantas
ornamentales y otros adornos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
45
46
43
Huevos de gallina (unidad)
Otras clases de huevos (unidad)
Leche líquida (litro)
Otros productos
animales
Productos
de
la
silvicultura
y
extracción de madera
Base fuentes de
energia
Pescado
y
otros
productos de la pesca
Base alimentos
Otros minerales
Carne y productos de
carne
Pescado preparado o en
conserva
Legumbres preparadas
o en conserva; jugos de
frutas y de legumbres y
frutas preparadas o en
conserva
Base fuentes de
energia
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Item 7
36
Item 4
95
27
Base alimentos
28
Base alimentos
29
Base alimentos
30
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
31
32
33
Base alimentos
35
Base alimentos
40
Base alimentos
37
Base alimentos
38
Base alimentos
39
Base alimentos
97
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
98
105
Base alimentos
109
Base alimentos
110
LEÑA
Pescado fresco (libra)
Carbón
Sal (libra)
Carne de res sin hueso (libra)
Visceras de res (menudos)
(libra)
Carne de res con hueso (libra)
Carne de cerdo sin hueso (posta)
(libra)
Carne de cerdo con hueso (libra)
Carne molida (libra)
Carne de pollo o gallina (libra)
Visceras de pollo o gallina
(menudos) (libra)
Embutidos
(jamón,
salchichas,chorizos,longanizas,
etc.) (libra)
Pescado seco (libra)
Sardinas, atún, etc. (enlatados)
(gramos)
Mariscos,
camarones,
cangrejos, etc. (libra)
Jugos empacados o enlatados
(litro)
Frijoles enlatados (gramos)
Mermeladas, jaleas (gramos)
Otros envasados no incluídos
(litro)
Compotas (gramos)
17
Aceites
grasas
animales
vegetales
18
Productos de
molineria
19
20
y
y
Preparados
utilizados
para
la
alimentación
de animales
Productos de
panaderia
Aceites
y
grasas
animales y vegetales
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
52
53
54
55
8
9
10
11
Base alimentos
12
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Gasto del último
mes
17
18
Aceites comestibles (litro)
Manteca vegetal (libra)
Manteca de cerdo (libra)
Margarina (gramos)
Cereales preparados (gramos)
Incaparina (libra)
Avenas de toda clase (gramos)
Atol de maíz (vaso)
Otros atoles (arroz en leche, atol
de plátano, atolillo, shuco)
(vaso)
Harina de maiz (libra)
Harina de trigo (libra)
19
Comida para mascotas
Productos de molineria
Preparados utilizados
para la alimentación de
animales
Productos de panaderia
Capitulo
agropecuario
p14d06b
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Base alimentos
104
21
Azúcar
Azúcar
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
13
14
22
Macarrones,
fideos
y
productos
farináceos
análogos
Macarrones, fideos y
productos farináceos
análogos
Base alimentos
22
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
41
42
43
Base alimentos
44
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
Base alimentos
47
48
49
50
51
100
Base alimentos
15
Base alimentos
16
Base alimentos
23
Base alimentos
24
Base alimentos
25
23
24
Productos
lacteos
Productos
alimenticios
n.c.p.
Productos lacteos
Productos alimenticios
n.c.p.
Alimentos para animales
Pan dulce (unidad)
Pan francés (unidad)
Pan de rodaja (gramos)
Galletas (gramos)
Pastel (porción o pedazo)
Tortillas de harina (unidad)
Tortillas de maiz (unidad)
Golosinas (tortrix, ricitos, etc.)
(gramos)
Azúcar (libra)
Panela (rapadura) (libra)
Fideos, tallarines, coditos,
pastas de toda clase (libra)
Leche en polvo para bebé (libra)
Leche en polvo (libra)
Leche líquida (litro)
Leche evaporada o condensada
(gramos)
Crema fresca (litro)
Queso fresco o duro (libra)
Yogures (litro)
Mantequilla (libra)
Requezón (libra)
Helados/granizadas (litro)
Mieles, melazas y jarabes
(botella)
Dulces y confites de toda clase
(gramos)
Sopas en sobre (malher, maggi,
etc.) (gramos)
Salsas y pastas de tomate
(gramos)
Otras Salsas y pastas (gramos)
25
Bebidas
alcohólicas y
no
alcohólicas
Base alimentos
26
Base alimentos
56
Base alimentos
93
Base alimentos
94
Base alimentos
102
Base alimentos
106
Base alimentos
111
Base alimentos
112
Base alimentos
113
Base alimentos
114
Base alimentos
115
Base alimentos
116
Base alimentos
103
Base alimentos
107
Bebidas no alcohólicas;
aguas
minerales
embotelladas
Base alimentos
96
Sopas instantáneas en vaso
(gramos)
Mayonesa y aderezos. (gramos)
Consomés,
sazonadores,
ablandadores, sal de ajo, de
cebolla etc. (gramos)
Tomillo, laurel, orégano y otras
especias (gramos)
Chocolate (libra)
Semillas
tostadas
(manía,
marañon, etc)
Té en sobre (gramos)
Tamales colorados, negros, de
cambray, elote, chuchitos,
Paches (unidad)
Chicharrones o carnitas de cerdo
(libra)
Tacos de toda clase (unidad)
Tostadas con guacamol, frijol,
salsa, etc. (unidad)
Cerveza (litro)
Licores, rones, whiskys, vinos,
etc. (litro)
Aguas gaseosas (litro)
Base alimentos
99
Agua purificada (litro)
Productos del tabaco
Base alimentos
108
Bebidas alcohólicas
Fibras textiles,
productos textiles y
prendas de vestir
26
Gasto del último
mes
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Base
personas
capítulo
educación
Otras
industrias
Cuero y productos de
cuero; calzado
Pasta de papel, papel y
productos de papel;
impresos y artículos
análogos
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gasto del último
mes
Base
personas
capítulo
educación
15
1
2
9
P06A04B
P06B13B
3
2
6
16
P06A05B
P06B14B
Cigarrilos
(paquete
20
unidades)
Hilos para coser, lanas, botones,
elásticos, zippers y similares
Prendas
de
vestir
confeccionadas
Telas para confeccionar ropa
Cortinas,
sábanas,
toallas,
mantas, colchones, manteles, fra
Pago
por
uniformes
en
preprimaria
Pago por uniformes educacion
escolar
Calzado, zapatos tenis, botas y
reparación de calzado
Periódicos
Papel
higiénico,
toallas
sanitarias, servilletas, toallas de
Libros y revistas (No incluya
textos escolares
Compra de libros, útiles y
materiales para preescolar
Compra de libros educacion
escolar
P06B16B
p06a08b
P06B20B
Productos de horno de
coque; productos de
petróleo
refinado;
combustibles nucleares
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Base fuentes de
energia
Base fuentes de
energia
item 2
Kerosene
item 3
Gas Propano
Gasto del último
mes
1
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Productos químicos
4
4
5
Gasto del último
mes
10
Gasto del último
mes
13
Gasto del último
mes
14
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Base
personas
capítulo salud
Productos métalicos
elaborados, y
maquinaria y equipo
Compra de cuadernos y
materiales
escolares
en
educacion escolar
Compra de otros materiales
preescolar (mensual)
Compra de otros materiales y
útiles escolares, en educacion
escolar (mensual)
Combustible para vehiculos de
uso particular del hogar
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Base fuentes de
energia
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
17
18
P05D12B
P05C09C
3
9
Item 2
7
8
31
P05D15B
Base
personas
capítulo salud
P05D16B
Jabón lavaplatos, jabón de bola,
detergentes, suavizante líquido,
cloro etc.
Jabón para baño, shampu,
acondicionador, etc.
Pasta dental, cepillo dental, hilo
dental, enjuague bucal, e
Pintura de uñas, lapiz labial,
mascara de pestañas, sombras y
otros cosméticos
Desinfectantes para piso y
baños,
desodorantes
ambientales e insecticidas
Aceite de bebe, hisopos,
mamones,
pepes,
pachas,
pañales, baberos etc.
Colonias,
desodorantes,
lociones, talcos, etc.
Alka seltzer, sal andrews,
aspirinas, alcohol, etc.
Pago por medicinas (mensual)
¿Cuánto pagó por medicinas?
Annual
Linternas o focos, bombillas,
etc.
Tijeras, limas y corta uñas,
pinzas, etc.
Baterías (pilas)
Secadora de pelo, afeitadora
eléctrica y calentador de agua
Vajillas,
ollas,
bandejas,
sartenes, cubiertos y otros utens
Aparato de teléfono celular
Pagó por aparatos o equipos
ortopédicos (mensual)
Pagó
dinero
por
lentes
graduados, audífonos para
sordos o placas dentales
(mensual)
Muebles
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Otra manufactura
27
28
Electricidad y
agua
Alojamiento;
servicios de
suministro de
comidas
y
bebidas
Electricidad y agua
Alojamiento, servicios
de suministro de
comidas y bebidas
Construcciones
Otros
servicios
Servicio de transporte
y almacenamiento
Muebles de cocina, comedor,
sala, dormitorio
9
Fósforos
10
2
7
8
Gasto del último
mes
11
Gasto del último
mes
12
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Base fuentes de
energia
Base fuentes de
energia
Base
vivienda/hogares
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Base
personas
capítulo salud
Base
vivienda/hogares
Gastos de la
semana pasada
29
5
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Base
personas
capítulo salud
11
Encendedores
Cepillos para ropa, cepillos para
calzado, liquido y betún para
calzado etc.
Cepillos para el cabello, peines
peinetas, ganchos, diademas
Rasuradoras, repuestos para
rasuradoras, hojas de afeitar, c
Escobas, cepillos, trapeadores,
cera para pisos, bolsas para
basura etc.
Guantes para lavar y de cocina,
esponjas, lazos, ganchos para
colgar etc.
Articulos de joyería de metales
preciosos y fantasía
29
Artículos deportivos
30
Juguetes
item 6
item 98
p01d09 y
p01d15b
5
15
P05C09E
P01C04
1
3
Electricidad
Otras fuentes de energía
Pago servicio agua y compra de
agua a camion cisterna
Comidas y bebidas consumidas
fuera del hogar
Hoteles, pensiones y paquetes
turisticos
¿Cuánto pagó por hospedaje y
alimentación?
Mantenimiento y reparación de
vivienda
Buses urbanos, microbuses,
taxis o mototaxis (no transporte
escolar)
Teléfono público, telegramas,
cartas, fax, internet
25
Peaje (uso de autopista)
28
Pagos por pago de parqueo para
vehiculos del hogar
29
Gastos por pasajes extraurbanos
14
P05C09D
Pasajes aéreos y terrestres con
fines de turismo, descanso,
Pago de transporte para
hospitalizacion
P05D14B
Base
personas
capítulo
educación
Servicios postales, de
mensajería
y
telecomunicaciones
Servicios
de
intermediación
financiera y seguros
Servicios inmobiliarios
Servicios de alquiler
sin
operarios
y
servicios prestados a
las empresas
Base
vivienda/hogares
Base
vivienda/hogares
Base
vivienda/hogares
Base
vivienda/hogares
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Base
vivienda/hogares
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gasto del último
mes
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Servicios de veterinaria
Otros
servicios
comunitarios, sociales
y personales
Capítulo
agrocecuario
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gastos de la
semana pasada
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Gasto del último
mes
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
P06A07B
P06B19B
Pago de transporte a centro de
salud, mensual.
Pago por transporte, educacion
preescolar (mensual)
Pago por transporte, educacion
escolar (mensual)
p01d20a
Telefono fijo
p01d20b
Celular
p01d20c
Internet
p01d20d
Tv Cable
26
Pago de seguro de vehiculo
27
Pago de seguro de vida
28
P01B03
8
30
16
18
21
P14D06C
6
Seguro privado de salud,
enfermedad o accidente
¿Cuánto paga mensualmente de
alquiler?
Molienda de maíz
Gasto
por
servicios
de
vigilancia, guardias seguridad
Pagos por obtención y trámites
de documentos
Reparación y mantenimiento de
vehículos
Servicios profesionales de
abogados, contadores, y otros
profesionales no en salud
Gastos veterinaria
Rifas, loterías y bingos
11
Lustre de calzado
20
Lavado, planchado y reparación
de prendas de vestir fuera de
21
Recreación, diversión
22
Barbería, salón de belleza
26
12
13
24
Gimnasio, sauna, baño turco,
masajes, etc.
Fiestas,
cumpleaños
y
celebraciones.
Regalos para todo tipo de fiestas
o celebraciones
Aportes a clubes o asociaciones
Gastos de los
últimos 12 meses
25
Gasto del último
mes
23
Gasto del último
mes
24
Servicios domésticos
Servicios y contratos funerarios,
panteones, cajas mortuorias etc.
Servicio
de
empleada
doméstica,
lavandera,
planchadora, que viven en el
hogar
Servicio
de
empleada
doméstica,
lavandera,
planchadora, que NO viven en el
hogar
8.2 Micro SAM Accounts detail
These two tables explain the economic activities and commodities included in the aggregated sectors
and products of the SAM.
Table 33 - Activities: table of equivalences
Agricultural Industries for feed
Cría de aves de corral
Cría de cerdos
Cría de ganado vacuno
Cría de otros animales
Cría de ovejas, cabras, caballos, asnos, mulas y burdéganos
Cría de peces en granjas piscícolas
Obtención de productos de animales vivos
Producción de pieles finas, cueros de reptiles y plumas de aves como parte de la explotación ganadera
Agricultural Industries for seed
Cultivo de banano
Cultivo de café
Cultivo de cardamomo
Cultivo de cereales y otros cultivos n.c.p.
Cultivo de frutas y nueces, plantas cuyas hojas se utilizan para preparar bebidas, y especias
Cultivo de tubérculos, raíces, hortalizas y legumbres, especialidades hortícolas y productos de vivero
Otros Cultivos n.c.p.
Food industry
Beneficiado de café
Beneficios de arroz
Elaboración de aceites y grasas de origen vegetal y animal
Elaboración de alimentos preparados para animales
Elaboración de almidones y productos derivados de almidón
Elaboración de azúcar
Elaboración de cacao y chocolate y de productos de confitería
Elaboración de macarrones, fideos y productos farináceos similares
Elaboración de otros productos alimenticios n.c.p.
Elaboración de otros productos de molinería n.c.p.
Elaboración de productos de panadería
Elaboración de productos lácteos
Elaboración y conservación de frutas, legumbres y hortalizas
Elaboración y conservación de pescado y productos de pescado
Matanza de aves
Matanza de ganado porcino
Matanza de ganado vacuno
Matanza de otros animales
Preparación y conservación de carne y productos cárnicos
Non-food industry activities
Adqusiciones menos disposiciones de objetos valiosos
Ajuste CIF/FOB sobre importaciones
Consumo final de las instituciones sin fines de lucro
Consumo final de los hogares
Consumo final del gobierno colectivo
Consumo final del gobierno individual
Electricidad gas y agua
Exportación de bienes
Exportación de servicios
Formación bruta de capital fijo
Importación de bienes
Importación de servicios
Impuestos a los productos exc. IVA e impuestos a la importación
Impuestos tipo IVA
Impuestos y derechos sobre importaciones exc. IVA importaciones.
Márgenes de comercio
Márgenes de transporte
Subvenciones a los productos
Suma parcial / descripción
Variación de existencias
Other agriculture
Actividades de servicios agrícolas y ganaderos, excepto las actividades veterinarias
Captura de camarones y langostas
Captura de crustáceos y moluscos y otros productos acuáticos
Captura de peces
Caza ordinaria y mediante trampas y repoblación de animales de caza, incluso las actividades de servicios
conexas
Cultivo de camarones
Cultivo de productos agrícolas en combinación con la cría de animales
Silvicultura, extracción de madera y actividades de servicios conexas
Other manufactures
Actividades de edición e impresión de papel y cartón y actividades de reproducción de grabaciones
Adobo y teñido de pieles; fabricación de artículos de piel
Aserrado y acepilladura de madera
Curtido y adobo de cueros; fabricación de maletas, bolsos de mano y artículos de talabartería y guarnicionería,
excepto calzado
Destilación, rectificación y mezcla de bebidas alcohólicas; producción de alcohol etílico a partir de sustancias
fermentadas
Elaboración de bebidas malteadas y de malta
Elaboración de bebidas no alcohólicas,
Elaboración de productos de tabaco
Elaboración de vinos
Fabricación de abonos y compuestos de nitrógeno y de plaguicidas y otros productos químicos de uso
agropecuario.
Fabricación de artículos de hormigón, cemento y yeso
Fabricación de calzado
Fabricación de cemento, cal y yeso
Fabricación de coque, productos de la refinación de petróleo y combustible nuclear
Fabricación de cubiertas y cámaras de caucho: recauchado y renovación de cubiertas de caucho
Fabricación de jabones y detergentes, preparados para limpiar y pulir, perfumes y preparados de tocador
Fabricación de maquinaria y equipo, n.c.p.
Fabricación de metales comunes
Fabricación de muebles
Fabricación de otras sustancias y productos químicos y fabricación de fibras textiles manufacturadas.
Fabricación de otros productos de caucho
Fabricación de otros productos minerales no metálicos
Fabricación de otros productos textiles, excepto prendas de vestir.
Fabricación de papel y productos de papel
Fabricación de pinturas, barnices y productos de revestimiento similares, tintas de imprenta y masillas
Fabricación de plásticos en formas primarias y de caucho sintético
Fabricación de prendas de vestir, excepto prendas de piel (local)
Fabricación de prendas de vestir, excepto prendas de piel (máquila)
Fabricación de productos de arcilla y cerámica refractaria y no refractaria para uso estructural y no estructural
Fabricación de productos de madera, corcho, paja y materiales trenzables, excepto muebles
Fabricación de productos de plástico
Fabricación de productos elaborados de metal, excepto maquinaria y equipo
Fabricación de productos farmacéuticos, sustancias químicas medicinales y productos botánicos
Fabricación de tejidos y artículos de punto y ganchillo
Fabricación de vidrio y productos de vidrio
Hilatura, tejedura y acabado de productos textiles
Otras industrias manufactureras n.c.p.
Producción de aguas minerales
Other primary industries
Extracción de minerales metálicos
Extracción de otros minerales no metálicos
Extracción de petróleo y gas natural
Extracción de piedra, arena y arcilla
Other services
Actividades Auxiliares de la Intermediación Financiera
Actividades de agencias de viajes y organizadores de viajes; actividades de asistencia a turistas n.c.p.
Actividades de arquitectura e ingeniería u otras actividades técnicas
Actividades de asociaciones que sirven a los hogares
Actividades de bibliotecas, archivos y museos y otras actividades culturales
Actividades de cinematografía, radio y televisión y otras actividades de entretenimiento; Actividades de
agencias de noticias
Actividades de hospitales
Actividades de investigación y desarrollo, asesoramiento empresarial y en materia de gestión
Actividades de médicos y odontólogos
Actividades de organizaciones empresariales y de empleadores
Actividades de planes de seguridad social de afiliación obligatoria
Actividades de servicios sociales con alojamiento y sin alojamiento
Actividades de Transporte Complementarias y Auxiliares
Actividades deportivas y otras actividades de esparcimiento
Actividades jurídicas y de contabilidad, teneduría de libros, auditoría, etc.
Actividades veterinarias
Administración pública y defensa
Alquiler de equipo de construcción o demolición dotado de operarios
Alquiler de maquinaria y equipo sin operarios y de efectos personales y enseres domésticos
Alquiler de vivienda
Comercio al por mayor y al por menor
Construcción, excepto alquiler de equipo de construcción ó demolición dotado de operarios
Distribución de combustibles gaseosos por tubería, suministro de vapor y agua caliente
Eliminación de desperdicios y aguas residuales, saneamiento y actividades similares
Enseñanza
Financiación de Planes de Seguros y de Pensiones, excepto los Planes de Seguridad Social de Afiliación
Obligatoria
Generación, captación y distribución de energía eléctrica
Hogares privados con servicio doméstico
Hoteles; campamentos y otros tipos de hospedaje temporal
Informática y actividades conexas
Intermediación Financiera, excepto la Financiación de Planes de Seguros y Pensiones
Mantenimiento y reparación de vehículos automotores y motocicletas
Organizaciones y órganos extraterritoriales
Otras actividades de servicios
Otras actividades empresariales n.c.p.
Otras actividades inmobiliarias, excepto alquiler de vivienda
Otras actividades relacionadas con la salud humana
Publicidad
Reciclamiento
Reparación de efectos personales y enseres domésticos
Restaurantes, bares y cantinas
Servicios postales y de correo
SIFMI
Telecomunicaciones
Transporte por Vía Acuática
Transporte por Vía Aérea
Transporte por Vía Terrestre; Transporte por Tuberías
Water distribution
Captación, depuración y distribución de agua
Table 34 - Products: table of equivalences
Animal and vegetal oils and fats
Aceite vegetal
Harinas de semillas y frutas oleaginosas y otras grasas de origen vegetal y animal n.c.p.
Manteca vegetal
Margarina y preparados análogos
Animal foods
PREPARADOS UTILIZADOS PARA LA ALIMENTACIÓN DE ANIMALES
Bakery products
Otros productos de panadería y repostería n.c.p.
Pan
Bananas
Banano
Beans
Frijol
Beverages
Alcohol etílico; aguardientes, licores y otras bebidas espirituosas y vinos
Cerveza de malta
Malta
Canned legumes
Compotas, jaleas de frutas, purés y pastas de frutas o nueces
Frutas y nueces, sin cocer o cocidas al vapor o en agua, congeladas
Jugos de frutas y de legumbres
Legumbres preparadas o en conserva
Otras frutas en conserva n.c.p.
Cereals and legumes
Arroz con cáscara
Otras legumbres n.c.p.
Otros cereales n.c.p.
Sorgo
Trigo
Coffee
Café
Consumo de capital fijo no Sociedades
Consumo de capital fijo no Sociedades
Consumo de capital fijo Sociedades
Consumo de capital fijo Sociedades
Dairy products
Leche en polvo
Leche pasteurizada
Otros productos lácteos n.c.p.
Eggs
Huevos
Electricity, gas, and water
Agua natural
Energía eléctrica, gas, vapor y agua caliente
Excedente de explotación, bruto
Excedente de explotación, bruto
Excedente de explotación, neto
Excedente de explotación, neto
Fish and other fisheries products
Atún fresco o refrigerado
Camarón vivo, fresco o refrigerado
Otros peces vivos frescos o refrigerados
Otros productos acuáticos n.c.p.
Formación bruta de capital fijo y objetos valiosos
Formación bruta de capital fijo y objetos valiosos
Fruits
Berries
Mango
Melón
Otras frutas n.c.p. y nueces
Fuel wood
Lana
Leña
Ingreso mixto, bruto
Ingreso mixto, bruto
Ingreso mixto, neto
Ingreso mixto, neto
Lodging, food service
Servicios de alojamiento
Servicios de suministro de comida y bebidas
Macaroons and noodles
MACARRONES, FIDEOS Y PRODUCTOS FARINÁCEOS ANÁLOGOS
Maize
Maíz
Meat products
Carne y despojos comestibles de aves (frescas, refrigeradas o congeladas)
Carne y despojos comestibles de ganado porcino (fresca, regrigerada o congelada)
Carne y despojos comestibles de ganado vacuno (fresca, refrigerada o congelada)
Otras carnes, embutidos y otros productos de la carne
Milk
Leche sin elaborar
Mill products
Arroz sin cáscara
Harina de trigo
Otras harinas, avenas, y otros productos de la molinería n.c.p.
Minerals
Minerales metálicos
Otros minerales no metálicos n.c.p.
PETRÓLEO CRUDO Y GAS NATURAL
Piedra de construcción o de talla, yeso, arenas y arcillas
Sal común y cloruro de sodio
Other animal products including live animals
Miel natural
Other crops, live plants, flowers and their seeds
Ajonjolí
Algodón en oro
Cacao en grano
Caña de azúcar
Claveles
Especias
Otras materias vegetales sin elaborar n.c.p.
Otras plantas bebestibles n.c.p.
Otras plantas utilizadas en la fabricación de azúcar n.c.p.
Otras plantas vivas, flores y semillas n.c.p.
Otras semillas y frutos oleaginosos n.c.p.
Rosas
Semilla de algodón
Soya
TABACO SIN ELABORAR
Té verde
Other food products
Almidones y sus productos, azúcares y jarabes de azúcar, n.c.p.
Cacao, chocololate y artículos de confitería preparados con azúcar
Otros productos alimenticios n.c.p.
Other forestry products
Aves de corral
Chicle y chiquibul
Ganado bovino
Ganado porcino
Hule natural o látex
Otras gomas, resinas naturales y otros productos de la silvicultura n.c.p.
Otros animales vivos n.c.p.
Otros productos animales n.c.p.
Otros tipos de madera sin elaborar n.c.p.
Ovejas, cabras, caballos, asnos, mulas y burdéganos
Troncos de madera
Other manufactured products
Abonos y plaguicidas
Aceites y grasas lubricantes
Aguas minerales embotelladas
Aparatos médicos, instrumentos ópticos y de precisión
Artículos de corcho y paja u otros materiales trenzables
Artículos de cuero
Artículos de deporte
Artículos de hormigón, cemento y yeso
Artículos textiles (excepto prendas de vestir)
Bebidas no alcohólicas
Calderas, generadoras de vapor de agua y sus partes y piezas
Calzado y partes de calzado
Cemento, cal y yeso
Cuero, curtido o adobado y cuero artificial o regenerado
Depósitos, cisternas y recipientes de hierro, acero o aluminio (con capacidad superior a 300 litros)
Desperdicios de la industria de la alimentación y el tabaco
Desperdicios o desechos metálicos
Desperdicios o desechos no metálicos
Envases de papel y cartón
Equipo de transporte
Equipo y aparatos de radio, televisión y comunicaciones
Fuel oil y bunker (combustibles para calderas)
Gas oil (diesel)
Gases de petróleo y otros hidrocarburos gaseosos
Gasolina
Hilados e hilos; tejidos de fibras textiles, incluso afelpados
Instrumentos musicales
Jabón, preparados para limpiar, perfumes y preparados de tocador
Joyas y artículos conexos
Juegos y juguetes
Kerosina
Madera aserrada o cortada longitudinalmente, madera con librado continuo, madera sin elaborar
Maquinaria de oficina, contabilidad e informática
Maquinaria para usos especiales
Maquinaria para usos generales
Maquinaria y aparatos eléctricos
MUEBLES
Neumáticos y cámaras de aire
Otros artículos manufacturados n.c.p.
Otros productos de caucho n.c.p.
Otros productos de la refinación de petróleo n.c.p.
Otros productos metálicos elaborados n.c.p.
Otros productos minerales no metálicos n.c.p.
Papel periódico, otros papeles y cartones sin revestir, elaborados y ondulados y otros productos de papel y
cartón
Pasta de madera u otras materias celulósicas fibrosas
Piedra de construcción o de talla y sus manufacturas
Pinturas, barnices (incluso esmaltes y lacas), colores para la pintura artística, tinta de imprenta, tintas para
escribir y otras tintas
Plásticos en formas primarias y caucho sintético
Productos básicos de hierro y acero
Productos de cerámica no refractaria para uso no estructural
Productos de cerámica refractaria y de arcilla y cerámica no refractaria para uso estructural
Productos de la edición e impresión
Productos de madera, excepto muebles
Productos de plástico
PRODUCTOS DEL TABACO
Productos farmacéuticos
Productos metálicos estructurales y sus partes
Productos primarios de metales preciosos y metales no ferrosos
Productos químicos básicos
Productos químicos n.c.p. y fibras textiles manufacturadas
Tejidos de punto o ganchillo; prendas de vestir; adobo y teñido de pieles
Vidrio y productos de vidrio; fibra de vidrio y sus manufacturas, excepto tejidos; otros artículos de vidrio
Other wholesale, retail, and services
CIF/FOB SOBRE IMPORTACIONES
Compras directas en el exterior por residentes
Compras directas en el mercado interno por no residentes
Construcciones, excepto servicios generales de construcción
Otros servicios comerciales n.c.p.
Otros servicios de espacimiento y diversiones, n.c.p.
Otros servicios de salud humana
Otros servicios de transporte complementarios y auxiliares
Otros servicios inmobiliarios
Otros servicios n.c.p.
Servicios administrativos del gobierno
Servicios administrativos para el régimen de seguridad social de afiliación obligatoria
Servicios audiovisuales, promoción y presentación relacionados con las artes de interpretación y otros
espectáculos en escena; servicios relacionados con actores y otros artistas.
Servicios auxiliares de la intermediación financiera
Servicios auxiliares de seguros y fondos de pensiones
Servicios de agencias de viajes, organización de viajes en grupo y guias de turismo.
Servicios de alcantarillado y eliminación de desperdicios; servicios de saneamiento y otros servicios de
protección del medio ambiente
Servicios de almacenamiento
Servicios de alquiler de efectos personales y enseres domésticos
Servicios de alquiler de vivienda
Servicios de arquitectura e ingenieria y otros servicios técnicos
Servicios de arrendamiento o alquiler de maquinaria y equipo sin operarios
Servicios de asesoramiento, investigación de mercados e investigación y desarrollo
Servicios de asociaciones que sirven a los hogares
Servicios de bibliotecas, archivos, museos y otras actividades culturales
Servicios de comercio
Servicios de contabilidad, auditoria, teneduría de libros
Servicios de distribución de agua por tubería por cuenta propia
Servicios de distribución de electricidad; y serviciós de distribución de gas por tubería por cuenta propia
SERVICIOS DE ENSEÑANZA
Servicios de hospital
Servicios de informática y servicios conexas
Servicios de intermediación financiera, excepto seguros y fondos de pensiones
Servicios de lavanderia, limpieza y tinte
Servicios de mantenimiento y reparación de otros productos excepto mantenimiento y reparación de vehículos
automotores y motocicletas
Servicios de mantenimiento y reparación de productos metálicos elaborados, maquinaria y equipo
Servicios de mantenimiento y reparación de vehículos automotores y motocicletas
Servicios de organizaciones empresariales y de empleadores
Servicios de producción a comisión o por contrato
Servicios de publicidad
Servicios de radio y televisión por satélite
Servicios de seguro, reaseguro y fondos de pensiones
Servicios de telecomunicaciones
Servicios de tranporte de carga por carretera
Servicios de tranporte de pasajeros por agua, remolque y alquiler de embarcaciones.
Servicios de tranporte de pasajeros por carretera y alquiler de vehículos con conductor
Servicios de tranporte por tuberías
Servicios de transporte de carga por agua
Servicios de transporte de carga por vía aérea
Servicios de transporte de pasajeros por vía aérea y alquiler de aeronaves
Servicios de transporte por ferrocarril
Servicios de tratamientos de belleza y servicios de bienestar físico
Servicios de veterinaria
SERVICIOS DOMÉSTICOS
Servicios generales de construcción
Servicios jurídicos
Servicios médicos y dentales
Servicios para la comunidad en general
Servicios postales y de mensajería
SERVICIOS PRESTADOS POR ORGANIZACIONES Y ENTIDADES EXTRATERRITORIALES
Servicios relacionados con deportes de competición y de esparcimiento; servicios de atletas y auxiliares
conexos.
Servicios relacionados con la distribución de electricidad, gas y agua a comisión o por contrato
SERVICIOS SOCIALES
Prepared or canned fish
Camarones congelados y empacados
Otros productos elaborados de pescado, crustáceos, moluscos, harinas y conservas n.c.p.
Pescado preparado o en conserva, exc. moluscos y crustáceos
Roots and tubers
Otras raíces y tubérculos n.c.p.
Papa
Sugars
Azúcar de caña refinada
Azúcar de caña sin refinar
Los demás azúcares n.c.p.
Melaza
Panela
Vegetables
Arveja china
Brócoli
Cardamomo
Ejote francés
Hierbas frescas culinarias, flores y hojas comestibles
Otras verduras n.c.p.
Repollo

Food vulnerability in Guatemala: a static general equilibrium

Transcription

Similar documents

Chapter 15 Section 5: The Revolution in Agriculture

Guatemala

Certificado IFS Espuña Olot

Prana Global Comunication / Creative Boutique 360º Prana

Transition Black Isle

David`s Newsletter 03/31/15 It is “Semana Santa” (Holy Week) here

Salamá, Guatemala - University of Utah Health Care

Russia`s Largest Agricultural Landholders 2016

Reach Out brochure - Reach Out Nkokonjeru Parish Reach Out

Diapositiva 1