kentucky derby

KENTUCKY DERBY
WAGERING GUIDE
DAILY LATE-BREAKING ONLINE UPDATES BEGIN APRIL 29
Orb and Joel Rosario win 2013 Kentucky Derby. ©Horsephotos.com/NTRA
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Strategies.
In addition to race-by-race expert commentary, inside you’ll also find useful Stats and Trends, a handy
Exotic Wagering Guide and much more.
Make certain to return to the Xpressbet website for free daily Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide Updates.
These will include critical workout information; Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse analysis; revised
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SEE HOW THEY PREP
By Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com
Since 1986, every Kentucky Derby champion except Charismatic exited a 9-furlong tune-up.
Fast finishes often indicate a positive result in the Kentucky Derby.
SPIRAL STAKES (March 22): We Miss Artie made a
desperate, late lunge to nab a pair of pace pressers in the
shadow of the wire in 1:52.26. His final furlong was about
13.37 and a final 3 furlongs in 39.43. This was much slower
late than recent Spirals.
WOOD MEMORIAL (April 5): Wide-rallying Wicked
Strong powered home late over Samraat in 1:49.31. He
finished the final furlong in a swift 12.52 and final 3 furlongs
in 37.35. The race did not finish up as fast as Verrazano and
Normandy Invasion a year ago, however.
SUNLAND DERBY (March 23): Chitu out-duked
stablemate Midnight Hawk on the front in 1:47.88. He
came home in 13.30 the final furlong and 38.28 the last 3
furlongs. The come-home splits were decidedly slower than
Govenor Charlie a year prior.
SANTA ANITA DERBY (April 5): California Chrome
outdueled an overmatched pacemaker and drew away
from Hoppertunity and Candy Boy in a lively 1:47.52. He
came home, geared down, in 12.49 and the final 3 furlongs
in 36.71. These numbers are similar to I’ll Have Another’s 2
years ago, and much faster than Goldencents’ last year.
FLORIDA DERBY (March 29): Rail-rallying
Constitution nabbed Wildcat Red, General a Rod and
Cairo Prince late in 1:49.16. The winner finished up in 12.70
the last furlong and a very sharp 36.76 the final 3 furlongs.
Both splits were solidly faster late than Orb in 2013.
LOUISIANA DERBY (March 29): Wire-to-wire winner
Vicar’s In Trouble drew away late from Intense Holiday in
1:50.77. He ran the final furlong in a soft 13.62 and final 3
furlongs in 38.63. This was nowhere near as strong late as
Revolutionary in 2013.
BLUE GRASS (April 12): After Pablo Del Monte set
a much faster than par pace, late-running Dance With
Fate and Medal Count stormed home in 1:50.06. The final
furlong went in 12.23, the final 3 furlongs in a shade under
36 flat. That is a bit quicker than Java’s War in 2013.
ARKANSAS DERBY (April 12): Inside-rallying Danza
ran away late from Ride On Curlin and Tapiture in 1:49.68.
He clicked off the final furlong in 12.30 and the final 3
furlongs in 37.09, faster than Bodemeister in 2012.
KENTUCKY DERBY CAPSULE
Year Winner ($2 payoff)
Jockey-Trainer Combo
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Rosario-McGaughey
35
Gutierrez-O’Neill
28
Velazquez-Motion
42
Borel-Pletcher
21
Borel-Woolley
34
Desormeaux-R. Dutrow 35
Borel-Nafzger
21
Prado-Matz
35
Smith-Shirreffs
28
Orb ($12.80*) I’ll Have Another ($32.60) Animal Kingdom ($43.80)
Super Saver ($18.00 )
Mine That Bird ($103.20)
Big Brown ($6.80*)
Street Sense ($11.80*)
Barbaro ($14.20)
Giacomo ($102.60)
Days Prep Fin.-
Off Prep Loc.
1-Florida Derby
1-SA Derby
1-Spiral
2-Arkansas Derby
4-Sunland Derby
1-Florida Derby 2-Blue Grass
1-Florida Derby
4-SA Derby
Pos. ¼ M Into Race
Pos. ½ M Into Race
Fav. Fin
(Odds)
16th-18-3/4 L
7th-8L
12th- 6-1/4L
6th- 5-1/2L
19th- 14L
4th- 1 ½L
18th-15L
5th-3 ¼ L
18th-16L
17th-14-1/2L 1st (5/1)
6th-6-1/2L 2nd (4/1)
10th-6L 8th (5/1)
6th-8L
6th (6/1)
12th-7L 18th (7/2)
6th- 2 ½L
1st (2/1)
19th-19L
1st (9/2)
4th-4L
7th (5/1)
18th-14L
7th (5/2)
*Starting Favorite
EXPERT SELECTION GRID
Expert Bob Neumeier
(NBC Sports)
Mike Battaglia
Jeff Siegel
Jon White
Dick Jerardi
Steve Byk
(NBC Sports)
(HRTV)
(Santa Anita)
(Phila. Daily News)
(SiriusXM Radio)
First
General a Rod
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Dance With Fate
California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Second
Uncle Sigh
California Chrome
Hoppertunity
California Chrome
Medal Count
Danza
Third
Danza
Medal Count
Wicked Strong
Wicked Strong
Wicked Strong
Hoppertunity
Fourth
Wicked Strong
Hoppertunity
Danza
Medal Count
Intense Holiday
Ride On Curlin
KENTUCKY DERBY WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
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Derby Extras
by Jeremy Plonk NBC Sports Triple Crown Researcher
Below are a few juicy Stats & Trends and Know This nuggets to get you started.
Stats & Trends:
Career High Pre-Derby Beyer Figs
Year
Horse
Beyer Fin.
2013 Goldencents
10517th
Verrazano
10514th
2012 Bodemeister
1082nd
2011 Soldat
103 11th
2010 Devil May Care
100 10th
Sidney’s Candy
100 17th
2009 Dunkirk
10811th
2008 Bob Black Jack
109 16th
2007 Street Sense
108 1st
2006 Sinister Minister
116 16th
2005 Bellamy Road
120 5th
2004 Read the Footnotes 113 7th
2003 Empire Maker
111 2nd
2002 War Emblem
112 1st
2001 Millennium Wind 114 11th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 111 1st
1999 Charismatic
1081st
Excellent Meeting 108 5th
General Challenge 108 11th
1998 Indian Charlie
112 3rd
1997 Silver Charm
110 1st
Free House
110 3rd
1996 Unbridled’s Song 114 5th
1995 Serena’s Song
114 16th
1994 Holy Bull
115 12th
1993 Diazo
109 5th
1992 Lil E. Tee
107 1st
Pine Bluff
107 5th
Devil His Due
107 12th
Days Between Last Prep & Derby Win
Year
Horse
Days
2013Orb
35
2012
I’ll Have Another
28
2011
Animal Kingdom
42
2010
Super Saver
21
2009
Mine That Bird
34
2008
Big Brown
35
2007
Street Sense
21
2006Barbaro
35
Color-Blind
The Last to Win the Derby…
Grey: Giacomo (2005)
Roan: Winning Colors (1988)
Bay: Orb (2013)
Chestnut: I’ll Have Another (2012)
Dark Bay/Brown: Street Sense (2007)
Prior Career Starts for Derby Winners
(Last 10 years)
Year Derby Winner Sts 2YO 3YO
2013Orb
7 4 3
2012 I’ll Have Another 5 3
2
2011 Animal Kingdom 4 2
2
2010 Super Saver
6 4
2
2009 Mine That Bird
8 5
3
2008 Big Brown
3 1
2
2007 Street Sense
7 5
2
2006Barbaro
5 2 3
2005Giacomo
7 4 3
2004 Smarty Jones
6 2
4
Birthplaces of Derby Winners
Winners State/Country
106 Kentucky
6 Florida
4 Virginia
3 California
3 Tennessee
2
New Jersey, Pennsylvania,
Texas, Canada, England
Know This:
Money Isn’t Everything
Derby starters with $1 million or more in
career earnings before the Derby are 1-36
all time in the big race. Street Sense is the
lone exception.
South of 40
No entrant in last year’s 19-horse field
was above 39-1 odds. By comparison, five
runners in 2012 were 40-1 or more.
Clocker Gary Young
Read private clocker Gary Young’s workout reports in online updates beginning April 29.
California Chrome – Could be a shorter price than Big Brown (2.40-1, 2008) and, if
there are no hiccups between now and Derby Day, he should win the race. He’s not
regally bred, but he’s a decent looking horse and if he transfers his California form
to Churchill he’s the one to beat.
Hoppertunity – He’s not a great work horse in the morning, but he ran well in the
Santa Anita Derby to be second behind California Chrome. Jockey Mike Smith is a
big-money rider and didn’t beat him up when the case was closed in Arcadia. This
horse keeps running at you and that style works well at Churchill Downs in the
Derby. He’ll also need some racing luck, but if California Chrome doesn’t bring his
‘A’ game he could win.
Danza – Trainer Todd Pletcher’s been high on this one for a while and he closed on
the rail in the Arkansas Derby like a post-hibernation bear looking for a meal. His
Arkansas Derby time was nearly as fast as Will Take Charge’s Oaklawn Handicap win
earlier on the card.
Wicked Strong – This one’s a major contender. He (and Hoppertunity) definitely
should get a mile and one-quarter. He enjoyed a great trip behind a decent pace in
the Wood. The Derby usually also has a quick first half-mile, so he might enjoy that,
too. It would be something if trainer Jimmy Jerkens could win a race his legendary
father couldn’t.
KENTUCKY DERBY WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, APRIL 29
Meet The 2014 Derby Contenders
by Johnny D Xpressbet.com
CALIFORNIA CHROME
VICAR’S IN TROUBLE
He has earned favoritism in this year’s Kentucky Derby by virtue
This Louisiana-bred runner likes to have the lead in his races and
of a stunning victory in the Santa Anita Derby. He also brings an
that was in evidence when he took Louisiana Derby foes on a merry
enviable streak of four consecutive wins into Louisville. No other
chase around the Fair Grounds’ track. A winner of three of five starts,
3-year-old has performed as consistently this season. ‘Chrome has a
including the Grade 3 LeComte, Vicar’s In Trouble is trained by Mike
deadly mixture of speed and endurance, but sometimes leaves the
Maker and piloted by Rosie Napravnik, the premier female jockey in
gate a bit slowly. He should be able to stalk or force a solid pace and America. ‘Vicar could only manage third in the Risen Star, but was
then unleash a strong closing
compromised by starting from
kick. Only three California-bred
the far outside number 13 post.
2014 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 4
runners have won the Kentucky
(March 27-29)
Derby. Amazingly, California
INTENSE HOLIDAY
Chrome’s trainer, 77-year-young
He
roared from off the pace
Wagering
Morning Final
$2 Will
Art Sherman, was the exercise
to
win
the Risen Star, but then
Interest
Line Odds Odds
Pay
rider for Swaps, a Cal-bred who
finished second behind Vicar’s
won the race in 1955.
All Other 3 YO’s
6-1 5-1
$12.20
In Trouble in the Louisiana
Derby. Also of note is that
California Chrome
5-1
9-1
$20.80
HOPPERTUNITY
Intense Holiday lugged in
Danza
6-1 9-1 $21.40
This colt was a well-beaten
through the stretch of his last
second to California Chrome in
race and may have brushed the
Social Inclusion
20-1
11-1
$25.60
the Santa Anita Derby, but won
inner rail despite left-handed
Candy Boy
12-1
13-1
$29.20
the Rebel Stakes in his previous
encouragement from Mike
start. Since making his first
Smith. He has lots of experience
Hoppertunity
12-1 15-1$32.20
career start Jan. 4, he has come
with eight lifetime starts.
Tapiture
15-1
15-1 $33.00
to hand rapidly for trainer Bob
Baffert. Like some other Derby
DANZA
Bayern
15-1 15-1 $33.40
starters, Hoppertunity will need
Trained by Todd Pletcher, the
Samraat
15-1
17-1 $37.40
to buck a trend that since Apollo
nation’s top conditioner, Danza
in 1886 has produced zero
rallied strongly to win the
Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
Kentucky Derby winners that did
Arkansas Derby at 41-1. He’s only
not race at two. His running style
made four starts, with two wins
should find him just off what figures to be a solid early pace.
and two third-place finishes. He broke his maiden first time out at
Belmont and then returned to finish third, beaten just a half-length
WICKED STRONG
in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. Off from August until March, Danza
He jumped to Derby prominence by rallying to win the Wood
was a well-beaten third in a Gulfstream allowance race. Hence, the
Memorial at Aqueduct. In that race he displayed the talent that
big price in Arkansas. He should be a big price again in the Derby,
propelled him to a close third-place finish in the Remsen behind
but he’s got some quality.
highly-regarded freshmen Honor Code and Cairo Prince. In two
starts at Gulfstream Park during the winter, Wicked Strong finished
TAPITURE
at least six lengths behind the winners. He just might be peaking at
He’s been one of the more consistent performers throughout his
the right time for trainer James Jerkens and his closing style should
2 and 3-year-old seasons. This year, he was an easy winner of the
fit well against a fast early pace.
Southwest, second in the Rebel and fourth in the Arkansas Derby.
It’s that last effort in Hot Springs that worries his backers most.
SAMRAAT
Tapiture finished worse than third for the first time in seven career
Second in the Wood behind Wicked Strong, it was Samraat’s first
starts. At two he was third, beaten a mere half-length, in the
defeat in six career races. He began his career against fellow New
Iroquois and then won the Kentucky Jockey Club while still a
York-bred runners and won the Damon Runyon at Aqueduct
maiden. Both races were at Churchill Downs. His preferred running
by more than 16 lengths. He won both the Grade 3 Withers and
style is to be in the first flight. However, he was out-finished in the
Gotham at Aqueduct before garnering place money in the Wood.
Arkansas Derby by three foes, and that opens the door to a concern
Trainer Richard Violette kept Samraat all winter in Florida and
about his effective ability at a mile and one-quarter on his favorite
surface Derby Day.
shipped him to New York for each race.
KENTUCKY DERBY WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, APRIL 29
LESS MAY BE MORE
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter
ANALYSIS: After a thorough examination of the speed figures and patterns
on the Ragozin Sheets, it’s a mish-mosh of contenders, all with competitive
figures, but below par by Kentucky Derby standards. My strategy hones in on
lightly raced horses, who have the potential to jump up and run a career-best on
Derby Day. Over the past 10 years, the vast majority of winners have come into
the Kentucky Derby with only two preps, saving their best for the grueling mile
and one-quarter test. That angle, combined with a favorable post position and
attractive odds, is my method to take down the cash.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME, certain to be underlaid on the tote, has 10 career races on his resume. His numbers are no better
than seven or eight others in the field and his pattern suggests no further
improvement. TAPITURE, VICAR’S IN TROUBLE, GENERAL A ROD,
WICKED STRONG, SAMRAAT, DANZA, UNCLE SIGH and INTENSE
HOLIDAY are in the numbers mix. HOPPERTUNITY ran one decent number,
but sports a poor pattern and his five races as a three-year-old are simply too
many. The expected race shape would appear to favor off-the-pace types – thus
WICKED STRONG, DANZA, and even COMMANDING CURVE, could
benefit.
VALUE PLAYS: Linemaker and NBC colleague Mike Battaglia has a
daunting challenge in separating the next line of contenders following the
expected favorite CALIFORNIA CHROME. Rosie Napravnik, Todd Pletcher,
Bob Baffert and Calvin Borel will take money. Two or three of those mentioned
in the main contenders section could slip to 20-1 or higher. Synthetic specialists
I am forced to disregard. Post position will be extremely important (6-14
preferred). Remember, post position 1 is a difficult slot, and starting box 17 is
winless in Derby history.
Stats & Trends:
Win-Place-Show Odds
(Last 25 years, Odds to $1)
Win Odds
Average: 13.83
High: 50.60 (Mine That Bird, 2009)
Low: 2.30 (Fuscaichi Pegasus, 2000)
Notable: Since 2000, Big Brown is the only
Derby winner under 4-1 odds.
Place Odds
Average: 15.09
High: 71.60 (Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: .80 (Easy Goer-entry, 1989)
Notable: Derby favorite has been first or
second the past two years (Orb, Bodemeister).
Show Odds
Average: 14.67
High: 86.90 (Mane Minister, 1991)
Low: .80 (Awe Inspiring-entry, 1989)
Notable: Only once in the last 21 years has
the show horse been over 20-1 odds.
Exacta Payoffs
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $809.00
High: $9,814.80
(Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: $15.20
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $5 Exacta Box: WICKED STRONG, GENERAL A ROD, DANZA and
UNCLE SIGH ($60)
• $20 Win: GENERAL A ROD and UNCLE SIGH ($40)
(Sunday Silence-Easy Goer, 1989)
Roses Are Red
Rosie Napravnik is the only female jockey to have ridden in all three legs of the
Triple Crown, and her fifth-place finish on Mylute a year ago marked the highest
placing ever by a female rider in the Kentucky Derby. Napravnik will pilot
Vicar’s in Trouble in this year’s Derby.
Not So Sweet 17
Post 17 remains the only post position
never to produce a Kentucky Derby
champion.
PICKS
1. GENERAL A ROD 2. UNCLE SIGH
3. DANZA
4. WICKED STRONG
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 29
Notable: Last year’s $981 exacta paid more
than the previous 3 Derby exactas combined.
Know This:
EXOTIC WAGERING CHART
Kentucky Derby exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs.
Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.
EXACTA BOX: ($2 Wager)
2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4
3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
EXACTA WHEEL: ($2 Wager)
One Horse with All
6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18
TRIFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
SUPERFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360
TRIFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
SUPERFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504
(Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)
TRIFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All
(Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72
One Horse with Two Horses with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
(Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1
or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)
One Horse with Two Horses with All
(Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a
All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
SUPERFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
KENTUCKY DERBY WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, APRIL 29
A ‘WICKED’ PACE SCENARIO
by Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Analyst
ANALYSIS: The presence of several early runners in this year’s Derby (with
even more waiting in the wings) almost assures a faster than normal pace
scenario. CALIFORNIA CHROME is one of those “speed” horses, but he has
shown the rare ability to press fast fractions and then run away from rivals in the
stretch. I think he will be the only front-runner sticking around at the end; the
only question is whether he will be able hold off the late chargers in the final
furlong.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME’s race in the Santa
Anita Derby was by far the most impressive prep turned in this year. Forget the
fact the he was bred in California—this horse looks like the real deal. WICKED
STRONG ran into Derby contention with that strong finish in the Wood. He
may not have cared for the track at Gulfstream, and I like the fact that his two
best races have been at a mile and one-eighth. HOPPERTUNITY was no
match for the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, but he did finish up well in
that one. He may like the added distance and you can never discount trainer
Bob Baffert in May. CANDY BOY still merits a long look. Don’t expect veteran
Gary Stevens to get caught up in a speed duel. Look for him to come from off
the pace. NOTE: Churchill workouts will be very helpful as few runners have
experience over the track.
VALUE PLAYS: DANCE WITH FATE and MEDAL COUNT will be
discounted because their best form is on the Polytrack, but both of these
horses closed extremely well and could add value to the exotic plays. WICKED
STRONG would be a value play at 6-1 or better..
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $1 Superfecta Key: WICKED STRONG over CALIFORNIA CHROME,
HOPPERTUNITY, MEDAL COUNT, DANCE WITH FATE and
CANDY BOY ($60)
• $20 Exacta Box: WICKED STRONG and CALIFORNIA CHROME ($40)
Online Updates, Workout Reports Begin April 29
Make sure to top-off your knowledge by accessing Xpressbet’s Kentucky
Derby Wagering Guide Online Updates beginning Tuesday, April 29. Updates
are free and include revised expert analysis and selections based on weather,
post positions, etc, plus Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse Derby analysis.
Returning this year: Online updates also will include observations from
renowned clocker Gary Young, who is on-track at Churchill Downs.
PICKS
1. WICKED STRONG 2. CALIFORNIA CHROME
3. MEDAL COUNT
4. HOPPERTUNITY
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 29
Stats & Trends:
Trifecta
(Since 1995, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $13,100.62
High: $133,134.80
(Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex, 2005)
Low: $205.40
(Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free House, 1997)
Notable: 6 straight Derby trifectas have paid
$2,337 or more.
Superfecta
(Since 1996, $1 Payoffs)
Average: $94,960.42
High: $864,253.50
(Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet AlexDon’t Get Mad, 2005)
Low: $350.00
(Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free HousePulpit, 1997)
Notable: 10 consecutive Derby superfectas
have paid $24,000 or more.
Highest-Priced Super Finishers
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds
Horse
Year
71.60 Closing Argument 2005
50.60 Mine That Bird
2009
50.30 Giacomo
2005
41.70 Limehouse 2004
Fin.
2nd
1st
1st
4th
Know This:
Never Forget Your First
The last 6 Derbies, and 12 of the last 14,
were won by trainers without a previous
Derby victory.
All In The Family
Seven of the last 10 Derby winners were
home-bred (not sold at sale), including Orb
in 2013.
‘CHROME IS STRICTLY
ONE TO BEAT
by Jeff Siegel HRTV Analyst
ANALYSIS: By virtually every measuring stick that I employ to
handicap a horse race, CALIFORNIA CHROME is a complete standout.
Except for the fact that he is unproven over a wet surface (he’s never
yet encountered an off track), this versatile and genuine colt has no
apparent weakness. His previous four victories – all by at least 5 ½
lengths and none even remotely taxing – make him even more of a
standout in my estimation than undefeated (and easy Derby winner)
Big Brown was in 2008. Barring something unforeseen, he’ll dominate
the 2014 Run for the Roses, and in doing so, will ignite Triple Crown
fever. Yes, of course, he could beat himself by performing down to the
competition’s level (as, for example, Point Given did in 2001), but if not,
the others have little or no hope.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Wood Memorial winner WICKED STRONG
and Arkansas Derby hero DANZA both left their previous form behind with
convincing victories in their final prep race and both are eligible to continue
their ascent on the first Saturday in May. WICKED STRONG should be a
dangerous deep closer in a race likely to have quick early fractions while
DANZA’S tactical speed and his triple-digit Beyer capabilities provide
expectations of a much higher ceiling than originally projected. I easily can see
one or both landing in the frame.
VALUE PLAYS: HOPPERTUNITY wasn’t knocked about when a distant
second in the Santa Anita Derby and seems certain to produce a major forward
move in Louisville, especially over the Derby’s 10-furlong trip. Since he’s already
had his head handed to him by CALIFORNIA CHROME, punters might
ignore him and look elsewhere. On the other hand, he could very well be to
CALIFORNIA CHROME what Sham was to Secretariat.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $70 Exacta: CALIFORNIA CHROME over HOPPERTUNITY ($70)
• $15 Exactas: CALIFORNIA CHROME over WICKED STRONG and
DANZA ($30)
Back to Back
Five jockeys have won back-to-back Kentucky Derby renewals, most recently
Calvin Borel in 2009-’10. Joel Rosario, pilot of Orb a year ago, looks to join that
exclusive club in this season’s renewal.
PICKS
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME
2. HOPPERTUNITY
3. WICKED STRONG 4. DANZA
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 29
Stats & Trends:
2013 Derby Handle Totals
(Handle in Millions Except High-Five)
Pool
Handle
Win/Place/Show$56.8
Trifecta$26.9
Exacta$23.1
Superfecta$11.2
Pick Four
$2.8
Oaks/Derby Double
$2.5
Pick Six
$1.2
Pick Five
$1.1
High Five
$374k
Lowest-Priced Derby Favorites
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds
Horse
Year
1.80
Point Given
2001
2.20
Holy Bull 1994
2.40 Big Brown
2008
Highest-Priced Derby Favorites
(Odds to $1)
Odds
Horse
Year
6.30 Lookin At Lucky
2010
6.00 Harlan’s Holiday
2002
5.50 Sweetnorthernsaint 2006
5.40 Orb
2013
5.20 Dialed In
2011
4.90 Street Sense
2007
4.80 General Challenge/ 1999
Excellent Meeting 4.40 Prairie Bayou
1993
4.20 Bodemeister
2012
4.10 Smarty Jones
2004
Know This:
Fin.
5th
12th
1st
Fin.
6th
7th
7th
1st
8th
1st
5th
2nd
2nd
1st
Pairing Up Wins
The last 3 Derby winners won their final
prep races – Orb (Florida Derby), I’ll Have
Another (Santa Anita Derby) and Animal
Kingdom (Spiral).
IT’S FATE
by Jon White Santa Anita & HRTV Analyst
ANALYSIS: DANCE WITH FATE already has finished ahead of Kentucky
Derby favorite CALIFORNIA CHROME in the Del Mar Futurity. That was a
while ago, but with a lively pace expected in the Run for the Roses, DANCE
WITH FATE’s come-from-behind style is a plus. Even though DANCE WITH
FATE is a closer, he has had the lead with a furlong to go in his last two races.
That’s important because it indicates he is capable of being first or second with
a furlong to run in the Kentucky Derby. That would be a prime position from
which to win the roses because 48 of the last 51 Derby winners have been first
or second with a furlong to go.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME (Santa Anita Derby
winner), DANCE WITH FATE (Blue Grass winner), WICKED STRONG
(Wood winner), DANZA (Arkansas Derby winner), HOPPERTUNITY (Rebel
winner) and VICAR’S IN TROUBLE (Louisiana Derby winner) are the main
contenders. CALIFORNIA CHROME has won four in a row by a combined 24
¼ lengths. My knock on HOPPERTUNITY is that he did not race as a 2-yearold. The only Kentucky Derby winner who didn’t race at 2 was Apollo in 1882.
VALUE PLAYS: Many will dismiss DANCE WITH FATE because he won
the Blue Grass on Polytrack. That will help drive his price upward. I believe his
performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on dirt last year was not as bad
as most people think, plus synthetic/turf horses seem to do well on dirt at
Churchill Downs. Meanwhile, also watch out for Blue Grass runner-up MEDAL
COUNT. He won the Grade 3 Transylvania and was second in the Grade 1 Blue
Grass. Both of those races were on Keeneland’s Polytrack surface. Like DANCE
WITH FATE, he also could relish the Churchill main track.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $2 Exacta Wheel: DANCE WITH FATE over ALL ($38)
• $2 Exacta Wheel: ALL over DANCE WITH FATE ($38)
• $2 Exacta Box: CALIFORNIA CHROME, INTENSE HOLIDAY,
MEDAL COUNT and WICKED STRONG ($24)
Going For The Gold
Two Derby 140 contenders will try to channel Strike The Gold’s 1991 success.
Dance With Fate attempts to become the first Blue Grass winner since “Strikey”
to also add the roses, while Wildcat Red can become the first Florida Derby
runner-up to win in Louisville since Strike the Gold.
Stats & Trends:
3-Y-O Maiden & Derby Winners
(Since 1933)
Maiden Win
Horse
May 6, 1933
Broker’s Tip*
Feb. 8, 1967
Proud Clarion
Feb. 3, 2001
Monarchos
Jan. 17, 1958
Tim Tam
Jan. 12, 1967
Lucky Debonair
Jan. 5, 1940
Gallahadion
Jan. 3, 1949
Ponder
Jan. 2, 2000
Fusaichi Pegasus
*Won Kentucky Derby as Maiden
Worst Final Prep Finish to Win Derby
(Since 1906)
Fin.
Horse
Year
12th
Stone Street
1908
5th
Iron Liege
1957
5th
Count Turf
1951
5th Doneraile
1913
5th
Pink Star
1907
Winter/Spring Homes of Winners
Year
Horse
State
2013 Orb
Florida
2012 I’ll Have Another California
2011 Animal Kingdom Florida/Kentucky
2010 Super Saver
Florida/Arkansas
2009 Mine That Bird
New Mexico
2008 Big Brown
Florida
2007 Street Sense
Florida/Kentucky
2006 Barbaro
Florida
2005 Giacomo
California
2004 Smarty Jones
Arkansas
2003 Funny Cide
Florida/New York
2002 War Emblem
Louisiana/Illinois
2001 Monarchos
Florida/New York
Know This:
Florida Sunshine
Six of the last 8 Derby winners wintered in
Florida, including Orb in 2013.
PICKS
1. DANCE WITH FATE 2. CALIFORNIA CHROME
3. WICKED STRONG 4. MEDAL COUNT
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 29
THIS CHROME IS POLISHED
by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News Columnist
ANALYSIS: Determining how this race is going to be run has become
nearly as hard as picking the winner. Really, did anybody imagine Palace Malice
running off with Mike Smith last year and changing everything in the first
hundred yards? Certainly, there are enough fast horses likely to run that the
pace is going to be, at least, honest. Horses making the last move do win the
Derby like Orb last year. Still, the better bet is finding the horse likely to make
the first big move on the far turn, like Barbaro and Big Brown. There is one horse
that fits that historical profile, CALIFORNIA CHROME.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME is going to be the
shortest-priced favorite since Big Brown went off at 2.40-1 in 2008 and ran like
a 3-5 shot. The San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby winner has two Beyer figures
(107 and 108) better than any other horse in this race has ever earned. He has a
style that often wins the Derby and arrives on a great roll. WICKED STRONG
always had promise. His Wood Memorial was a promise delivered. It was
powerful and eye-opening, suggesting another 220 yards might be a very good
thing. HOPPERTUNITY demonstrated just how strong the west coast horses
were when he went to Oaklawn Park and won the Rebel.
VALUE PLAYS: MEDAL COUNT is going to be ignored in the wagering
because his dirt form looks so suspect. His fifth in the Fountain of Youth was
better than it looks and his trainer Dale Romans knows the way to the top four
in the Derby.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $1 Superfecta Key: CALIFORNIA CHROME over MEDAL COUNT,
HOPPERTUNITY, WICKED STRONG, INTENSE HOLIDAY and
RIDE ON CURLIN ($60)
• $40 Exacta: CALIFORNIA CHROME over MEDAL COUNT ($40)
Changing History?
HOPPERTUNITY and possibly BAYERN and/or SOCIAL INCLUSION will
attempt to become the first since Apollo (1882) to win the Kentucky Derby
without racing at age 2. Since 1956, Kentucky Derby starters who did not race
at age 2 are 0-for-50. Bodemeister (second in 2012), Strodes Creek (second in
1994), Agitate (third in 1974), Reinvested (third in 1982) and Curlin (third in
2007) finished better than fourth. Forego (’73), Amano (’76), Pulpit (’97) and
Atswhatimtalknabout (’03) were fourth.
Stats & Trends:
No April Prep
(Since 1920)
Starts 1st 2nd 3rd
72 544
Finish
Horse
Year
1st:
Orb2013
Animal Kingdom2011
Mine That Bird2009
Big Brown2008
Needles1956
2nd:
Golden Soul
2013
Ice Box
2010
Hard Spun
2007
Staretor
1941
3rd:Revolutionary
2013
Mucho Macho Man 2011
Perfect Drift
2002
Candy Spots
1963
Fastest Derbies
Time
Horse
1:59 2/5
Secretariat
1:59 4/5
Monarchos
2:00
Northern Dancer
2:00 1/5
Spend A Buck
2:00 2/5
Decidedly
Year
1973
2001
1964
1985
1962
Wire-to-Wire Derby Winners
(Last 50 Years)
Year
Horse
Choice Field
2002 War Emblem 9th
18
1988 Winning Colors 2nd 17
1985 Spend A Buck 2nd 13
1976 Bold Forbes
2nd
9
1972 Riva Ridge
Fav. 16
1966 Kauai King
Fav. 15
Half
47
46 4/5
45 4/5
45 4/5
47 3/5
46 1/5
Know This:
Wood You Mind?
Wood Memorial alumni are 21: 0-0-0 since
Funny Cide/Empire Maker exacta in ‘03.
PICKS
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME 2. MEDAL COUNT
3. WICKED STRONG 4. INTENSE HOLIDAY
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 29
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PACE INVITES `WICKED’ RALLY
by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host
ANALYSIS: Big Brown forced a difficult “all-or-nothing” decision on Derby
bettors in 2008 and this edition offers a similar dilemna in the form of prepseason sensation CALIFORNIA CHROME. Blessed with a high cruising speed
and in the midst of a 4-race skein that has seen him crush foes by a combined
25 lengths, the humbly-pedigreed California native will leave the gate a heavy
favorite. The potential for an imperfect start from Art Sherman’s charge, and a
field dotted with on or near-the-lead rivals, makes it worthwhile to largely play
against the storybook candidate.
MAIN CONTENDERS: As in 2013, this race appears certain to provide
a pace meltdown and Jimmy Jerkens’ Wood winner WICKED STRONG is
the right late threat. By ‘07 Derby runner-up Hard Spun and out of a mare by
‘99 dual-classic hero Charismatic, WICKED STRONG’s ability to lay closer
to the pace and finish explosively—as in his Aqueduct score--bodes well
for his chances. DANZA stunned the Arkansas Derby under Joe Bravo and,
despite being lightly raced, has repeatedly shown the ability to stalk and go.
HOPPERTUNITY grinds out quarter mile times that invariably deliver in this
race and he just kept going after the finish of the Santa Anita Derby to reinforce
the belief he will enjoy a mile and one-quarter.
VALUE PLAYS: Never worst then fourth in 9 starts, a board hit from Billy
Gowan’s RIDE ON CURLIN will boost exotics even with popular Derby
jockey Calvin Borel aboard. Dale Romans has made a habit of putting runners
in the Derby superfecta and Dynaformer’s son MEDAL COUNT can emulate
Paddy O’ Prado, Dullahan and Shackleford with a rally under Robby Albarado. In
addition to Super Saver’s 2010 win, Todd Pletcher has authored two other big
tote Derby placements with Bluegrass Cat (‘06) and Invisible Ink (‘01), and his
overlooked runner INTENSE HOLIDAY can charge the exotics by reverting to
his one-run style under John Velazquez.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $4 Exacta Part-Wheel: WICKED STRONG, DANZA, HOPPERTUNITY
with WICKED STRONG, DANZA, HOPPERTUNITY, RIDE ON CURLIN,
INTENSE HOLIDAY, MEDAL COUNT, CALIFORNIA CHROME and
SAMRAAT ($84)
• $2 Exacta Part-Wheel: CALIFORNIA CHROME with WICKED STRONG,
DANZA, HOPPERTUNITY, RIDE ON CURLIN, INTENSE HOLIDAY,
MEDAL COUNT, SAMRAAT and COMMANDING CURVE ($16)
PICKS
1. WICKED STRONG 2. DANZA
3. HOPPERTUNITY
4. RIDE ON CURLIN
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 29
Stats & Trends:
Winning Derby Post Positions
(Since 1900)
Post Wins
Post Wins
1
12
11
3
2
9
12
3
3
8
13
4
4
11
14
2
5
12
15
4
6
6
16
4
7
8
17
0
8
10
18
1
9
4
19
1
10 10
20
2
Derby Records Before Winning Derby
Year
Trainer
Sts 1-2-3
2013
Shug McGaughey
6:0-1-1
2012
Doug O’Neill
2:0-0-0
2011
Graham Motion
2:0-0-0
2010
Todd Pletcher
24:0-2-1
2009
Chip Woolley
0:0-0-0
2008
Rick Dutrow
0:0-0-0
2007
Carl Nafzger
2:1-0-0
2006
Michael Matz
0:0-0-0
2005
John Shirreffs
0:0-0-0
2004
John Servis
0:0-0-0
2003
Barclay Tagg
0:0-0-0
2002
Bob Baffert
11:2-1-2
2001
John Ward
2:0-0-0
2000
Neil Drysdale
0:0-0-0
Know This:
March Madness
In 2013, for the first time in history, none of
the top 3 finishers in the Kentucky Derby
had an April prep race.
Wide Pride
The last 3 Derby winners broke from posts
15 (Orb), 19 (I’ll Have Another) and 16
(Animal Kingdom).