kentucky derby

KENTUCKY DERBY
Wagering Guide
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1
Animal Kingdom wins 2011 Derby. ©Horsephotos.com/NTRA
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examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies.
In addition to race-by-race expert commentary, inside you’ll also find useful Stats and Trends, a handy
Exotic Wagering Guide and much more.
Make certain to return to the Xpressbet website for free daily Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide Updates.
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SEE HOW THEY PREP
By Jeremy Plonk, Horseplayernow.com
Since 1986, every Kentucky Derby champion except Charismatic exited a 9-furlong final tune-up.
Fast finishes often indicate a positive result in the Kentucky Derby.
Spiral Stakes (March 24): Went the Day Well
ran his final 3 furlongs in approximately 39.10, the final
furlong in 13.26. He was never more than 2-1/4 lengths
behind, stalking a scorching 46.98 opening half-mile.
Sunland Derby (March 25): Daddy Nose Best
closed to win in 37.61 over the final 3 furlongs and 12.19
the final furlong. Isn’t He Clever inherited the lead when
a 46.24 half-mile speed duel crumbled. He finished in
37.76 and 12.69.
Santa Anita Derby (April 7): I’ll Have Another
employed a press-and-pounce style to win in 36.34 over
the final 3 furlongs and 12.42 the final eighth. Runner-up
Creative Cause came home a bit quicker in 36.04, with
an identical 12.42 final furlong. Liaison managed 37.54
and 12.82 splits.
Illinois Derby (April 7): Deep-closing Done Talking came home in 38.04 and 13.08 splits to win, overcoming a modest 48.64 opening half-mile.
Florida Derby (March 31): Trakus clocked wireto-wire winner Take Charge Indy in 36.66 the final 3
furlongs and 12.80 the final furlong. Union Rags (36.50,
12.58) and El Padrino (36.90, 12.75) all were in pursuit
after a slow 6 furlongs in 1:12.09.
Blue Grass (April 14): Trakus timed winner Dullahan in 35.77 over the final 3 furlongs and 11.91 in the final
eighth. Pace-setting runner-up Hansen went the half
in a smoking 46.64 and came home in 36.87 and 12.75
splits. Prospective earned 37.10 and 12.55 splits
Wood Memorial (April 7): Gemologist pressed
and pounced to score, coming home in just over 38-flat
the final 3 furlongs and 13.22 the final furlong. Alpha
rallied for second in a nearly identical 38-flat over the
final 3 furlongs and 12.97 the final eighth.
Arkansas Derby (April 14): Wire-to-wire winner Bodemeister came home in 37.35 for the final 3
furlongs with a sizzling 11.97 last eighth. Behind a solid
opening half-mile in 46.55, Sabercat passed others for
third in 37.75 and 12.82 splits.
KENTUCKY DERBY CAPSULE
Year
Winner ($2 payoff)
Jockey-Trainer Combo
Days Prep Fin.-
Off Prep Loc.
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Animal Kingdom ($43.80 )
Super Saver ($18.00 )
Mine That Bird ($103.20 )
Big Brown ($6.80*)
Street Sense ($11.80*)
Barbaro ($14.20)
Giacomo ($102.60)
Smarty Jones ($10.20*)
Funny Cide ($27.60) Velazquez-Motion
42
Borel-Pletcher
21
Borel-Woolley
34
Desormeaux-R. Dutrow 35
Borel-Nafzger
21
Prado-Matz
35
Smith-Shirreffs
28
Elliott-Servis
21
Santos-Tagg
21
Pos. ¼ M Pos. ½ M Into Race Into Race
1-Spiral
12th- 6-1/4L
2-Arkansas Derby 6th- 5-1/2L
4-Sunland Derby 19th- 14L
1-Florida Derby 4th- 1 ½L
2-Blue Grass
18th-15L
1-FL Derby
5th-3 ¼ L
4-SA Derby
18th-16L
1-Ark Derby
2nd-1 ½L
2-Wood
4th-2L
10th-6L 6th-8L 12th-7L 6th- 2 ½L
19th-19L
4th-4L
18th-14L
2nd-2L
3rd-2L
Fav. Fin
(Odds)
8th (5/1)
6th (6/1)
18th (7/2)
1st (2/1)
1st (9/2)
7th (5/1)
7th (5/2)
1st (4/1)
2nd (5/2)
*Starting Favorite
EXPERT SELECTION GRID
Expert Bob Neumeier
(NBC Sports)
Mike Battaglia
Jeff Siegel
Jon White
Dick Jerardi
Steve Byk
(NBC Sports)
(HRTV)
(HRTV)
(Phila. Daily News)
(SiriusXM Radio)
First
Bodemeister
Dullahan
Bodemeister
I’ll Have Another
Union Rags
Dullahan
Second
Creative Cause
Gemologist
Gemologist
Daddy Nose Best
Creative Cause
El Padrino
Third
I’ll Have Another
Union Rags
Dullahan
Creative Cause
Bodemeister
Sabercat
Fourth
Dullahan
Went the Day Well
Went the Day Well
Union Rags
Dullahan
Done Talking
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1
Derby Extras
by Jeremy Plonk NBC Sports Triple Crown Researcher
Here are Derby Stats & Trends and Know This tidbits to get you started. You’ll find these
juicy nuggets of information throughout the Xpressbet Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide.
Stats & Trends:
Synthetic-to-Dirt Derby Starters
Year Horse
Fin.
2011
Animal Kingdom
1st
2011
Master of Hounds *
5th
2011Santiva
6th
2011 Brilliant Speed
7th
2011
Derby Kitten
13th
2011
Decisive Moment
14th
2011
Midnight Interlude *
16th
2011Twinspired
17th
2011
Comma to the Top
19th
2010
Paddy O’Prado *
3rd
2010
Make Music For Me
4th
2010
Lookin At Lucky *
6th
2010
Stately Victor
8th
2010
Dean’s Kitten
14th
2010
Sidney’s Candy *
17th
2009
Pioneerof The Nile *
2nd
2009
Chocolate Candy *
5th
2009
Join in the Dance
7th
2009
General Quarters *
10th
2009
Hold Me Back *
12th
2009Advice
13th
2009
Mr. Hot Stuff
15th
2008
Colonel John *
6th
2008
Pyro *
8th
2008
Cowboy Cal
9th
2008Visionaire
12th
2008
Cool Coal Man
15th
2008
Bob Black Jack
16th
2008
Big Truck
18th
2008Adriano
19th
2008Monba
20th
2007
Street Sense *
1st
2007
Hard Spun *
2nd
2007Sedgefield
5th
2007Dominican
11th
2007Zanjero
12th
2007
Great Hunter
13th
2007Teuflesberg
17th
* less than 20-1 odds
Highest Pre-Derby Beyer Figures
Year Horse
Beyer Fin.
2011Soldat
10311th
2010 Devil May Care
100 10th
Sidney’s Candy
100 17th
2009Dunkirk
10811th
2008 Bob Black Jack
109 16th
2007 Street Sense
108 1st
2006 Sinister Minister
116 16th
2005 Bellamy Road
120 5th
2004 Read the Footnotes 113 7th
2003 Empire Maker
111 2nd
2002 War Emblem
112 1st
2001 Millennium Wind
114 11th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 111 1st
1999Charismatic
108 1st
Excellent Meeting 108 5th
General Challenge 108 11th
1998 Indian Charlie
112 3rd
1997 Silver Charm
110 1st
Free House
110 3rd
1996 Unbridled’s Song
114 5th
1995 Serena’s Song
114 16th
1994 Holy Bull
115 12th
1993Diazo
109 5th
1992 Lil E. Tee
107 1st
Pine Bluff
107 5th
Devil His Due
107 12th
Winter/Spring Homes of Winners
Year Horse
State
2011 Animal Kingdom Florida/Kentucky
2010 Super Saver
Florida/Arkansas
2009 Mine That Bird
New Mexico
2008 Big Brown
Florida
2007 Street Sense
Florida/Kentucky
2006Barbaro
Florida
2005Giacomo
California
2004 Smarty Jones
Arkansas
2003 Funny Cide
Florida/New York
2002 War Emblem
Louisiana/Illinois
2001 Monarchos
Florida/New York
Derby Records Before Winning Derby
Year Trainer
Sts:1st-2nd-3rd
2011 Graham Motion
2: 0-0-0
2010 Todd Pletcher
24: 0-2-1
2009 Chip Woolley
0: 0-0-0
2008 Rick Dutrow
0: 0-0-0
2007 Carl Nafzger
2: 1-0-0
2006 Michael Matz
0: 0-0-0
2005 John Shirreffs
0: 0-0-0
2004 John Servis
0: 0-0-0
2003 Barclay Tagg
0: 0-0-0
2002 Bob Baffert
11: 2-1-2
2001 John Ward
2: 0-0-0
2000 Neil Drysdale
0: 0-0-0
The Big Three
Three prep races have produced a Kentucky Derby winner and runner-up over
the last five years: the Arkansas Derby,
Spiral and Florida Derby.
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1
Know This
Champs at Churchill
The only 2-year-old champions to even
hit the board in the Kentucky Derby
over the past 20 years have been Street
Sense, the 2007 winner, and Timber
Country, the 1995 third-place finisher.
Perhaps not coincidentally, they both
were Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners at
Churchill Downs the previous fall. Hansen, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
at Churchill in November and was 2-yearold champion in 2011, is a prospective
starter in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Better Late than Never
Horses racing dead-last early in 5 of the
last 6 Kentucky Derbies have managed to
finish in the superfecta, a streak snapped
last year when favored Dialed In rallied
to be eighth. The odds of those 5 laterunning bombs were between 24-1 and
50-1.
Meet The 2012 Derby Contenders
by Johnny D Xpressbet.com
UNION RAGS
GEMOLOGIST
Narrow runner-up to Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in
It’s difficult to imagine that a horse who is undefeated after
November and in balloting for 2011 2-year-old Champ honors,
five lifetime races, two-for- two at Churchill Downs (including
Union Rags certainly is looking for payback against his ‘Moby
a Grade 2 stakes race) and is trained by Todd Pletcher isn’t the
Dick’ in the Kentucky Derby. Following Union Rags’ scintillating
favorite for the Kentucky Derby. However, that’s the case with
Fountain of Youth win at GulfGemologist. He has enough
stream, he became a clear-cut
speed to be close to the early
2012 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3 pace, but doesn’t need the lead
Derby favorite. Unfortunately,
(March 30-April 1)
his stock then dipped a bit
to win.
when he finished a troubled
Wagering
Morning Final
$2 Will
third in the Florida Derby. If
Interest
Line Odds Odds
Pay
TAKE CHARGE INDY
Union Rags has a clear trip and
Fifth in the Breeders’ Cup JuveUnion Rags
3-1 9-2
$11.60
runs like he did in the Fountain
nile, Take Charge Indy backers
of Youth, he will have a big say
were a bit dismayed when he
All Other 3 YO’s
6-1
6-1
$14.20
in the outcome of the Greatest
was scratched from the Tampa
Hansen
6-1
8-1 $18.80
Two Minutes in Sports.
Bay Derby for a start in the Flor-
Creative Cause
10-1
8-1
$19.00
ida Derby because it’s usually
not a good sign when Derby
Gemologist
20-1 12-1$26.80
connections call an ‘audible’ at
the line of scrimmage. HowevIt’s easy to understand why
Take Charge Indy
50-1
15-1
$33.60
er, this colt took advantage of
horseplayers shunned a list
Bodemeister
12-1 22-1$46.00
a comfortable early pace and a
of 23 other legitimate Derby
favorable track surface to upset
contenders and settled on ‘All
Dullahan
30-1
23-1
$49.40
heavily-favored Union Rags
Other 3 Year Olds’ as the 6-1
Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
in the Florida Derby. He won’t
second choice in Pool 3 of the
have as amenable a journey in
Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
the Kentucky Derby because there’s going to be an honest, if not
It’s now a week out from the race and a clear-cut favorite still
hasn’t emerged. However, as wide-open as things are it’s difficult downright quick, early pace.
to imagine that the eventual Derby winner was not offered as
a wagering interest in Pool 3, but it could happen. Remember
BODEMEISTER
Giacomo and Mine That Bird?
Buried down the list of Future Wager Pool 3 options is Bodemeister at 22-1. He’s only raced four times (two wins and two
seconds), but was so impressive in winning the Arkansas Derby
HANSEN
that he will be one of the top two choices in the Kentucky Derby.
Champion 2-year-old and hero of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in
November, Hansen probably won’t be favored in this year’s Ken- He’s trained by Bob Baffert—a man who knows how to win the
roses. Of course, he will need to buck history to be successful.
tucky Derby. He’s had an up and down season thus far—stumSince 1882, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racbling at the start of the Holy Bull; winning the Gotham and fading as a 2-year-old!
ing after setting a fast pace in the Blue Grass. He’s a quality colt
with plenty of early speed, but those who incorrectly suggested
he couldn’t go a mile and one-sixteenth effectively in November DULLAHAN
now are certain he can’t get a mile and one-quarter in May.
Despite finishing fourth in the BC Juvenile behind Hansen,
Union Rags and Creative Cause, Dullahan didn’t get much
love in the Future Wager. He closed at 23-1 odds. That’s probCREATIVE CAUSE
ably because his connections played their cards close to the vest
Third in the previously-mentioned Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he’s
until the Blue Grass when he roared from off the pace to catch
had a solid winter and spring reflected in his co-third choice 8-1
Hansen and win the race. Dullahan’s only other start at three
Kentucky Derby Future Wager price. His shining moment as a
was a runner-up effort to Howe Great on the turf at Gulfstream
3-year-old came in the San Felipe Stakes when he roared past a
stubborn Bodemeister late for the win. Creative Cause finished in the Palm Beach March 11. He’ll likely get plenty of support
come Derby day and his late-running style ought to fit well in
a game second to Robert Lewis-winner I’ll Have Another in the
this lineup.
Santa Anita Derby, after getting first run on that one in the lane.
ALL OTHER
3-YEAR-OLDS
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1
California Dreamin’
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter
ANALYSIS: Even a biased, east-coast Bostonian like me can see that
the Golden State of California offers three of the top hopefuls for the
2012 Kentucky Derby. BODEMEISTER, CREATIVE CAUSE and I’LL HAVE
ANOTHER all sport solid credentials with excellent speed figures and
distance pedigrees to match. Mom and Dad Baffert should dress son Bode
with a snappy blazer and a cute bow tie for a winner’s circle photo for the
ages if his colt can match that Arkansas Derby tour-de-force. However, with
only three weeks to recover from that race, the “bounce” backers will be
lining up around the block, predicting that BODEMEISTER will regress and
bounce as if he were on a trampoline. If not Bode Baffert can smile and say
“cheese.”
MAIN CONTENDERS: Should BODEMEISTER win the Kentucky
Derby, he will make history for having zero 2-year-old races on his resume.
But recent Derby winners have been tossing historical trends where they
belong----in the nearest trash bin. Should he bounce, Santa Anita Derby
grads CREATIVE CAUSE or I’LL HAVE ANOTHER will be waiting to pounce.
And don’t sleep on crafty conditioner Dale Romans with DULLAHAN,
hoping against hope that his rider Kent Desormeaux can weave his way
through a 20-horse cavalry charge.
VALUE PLAYS: Speed figures suggest that MARK VALESKI could be
an overlay of the century (30-1 or higher?). Comparative handicappers
will dismiss him after poor showings by his two latest conquerors and an
iffy pedigree. Still, the price will be right. DADDY NOSE BEST and TAKE
CHARGE INDY might also be overlooked at the windows.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $20 Win: BODEMEISTER ($20)
• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: BODEMEISTER with CREATIVE CAUSE and
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER ($20)
• $1 Trifecta Box: BODEMEISTER, CREATIVE CAUSE, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER,
DULLAHAN and MARK VALESKI ($60)
Synthetic-to-Derby Trifecta
Kentucky Derby trifectas in four of the last five years have included at least
one horse that had prepped most recently on a synthetic surface. Street
Sense and Animal Kingdom won after the surface switch, Hard Spun,
Pioneer of the Nile and Paddy O’Prado all hit the board.
PICKS
1. BODEMEISTER
2. creative cause
3. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER
4. DULLAHAN
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1
Stats & Trends:
WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS
(Last 25 years, Odds to $1)
Win Odds
Average: 13.47-to-1
High: 50.60 (Mine That Bird, 2009)
Low: 2.30 (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000)
Notable: 4 of last 10 Derby winners were
20-to-1 or more
Place Odds
Average: 14.14
High: 71.60 (Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: .80 (Easy Goer-entry, 1989)
Notable: Favorites have been second
3 times in last 25 years.
Show Odds
Average: 15.13
High: 86.90 (Mane Minister, 1991)
Low: .80 (Awe Inspiring-entry, 1989)
Notable: The last favorite to finish third
was Indian Charlie in 1998.
EXACTA PAYOFFS
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $764.39
High: $9,814.80
(Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: $15.20
(Sunday Silence-Easy Goer, 1989)
Notable: Since the mutuel field was
abolished in 2001, the average exacta
has paid $1,444.92.
Know This:
Florida’s Finest
5 of the last 6 Kentucky Derby winters spent
the bulk of their 3-year-old winter-spring
seasons stabled in the state of Florida. New
Mexico-based Mine That Bird in 2009 was
the only exception.
EXOTIC WAGERING CHART
Kentucky Derby exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs.
Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.
exacta box: ($2 Wager)
trifecta keys: ($1 Wager)
2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4
3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
exacta wheel: ($2 Wager)
One Horse with All
6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18
trifecta box: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
Superfecta box: ($1 Wager)
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360
3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
Superfecta wheels: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504
(Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)
trifecta wheels: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All
(Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72
One Horse with Two Horses with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
(Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1
or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)
One Horse with Two Horses with All
(Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a
All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
Superfecta Keys: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1
Dullahan Crashes Party Late
by Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Analyst
ANALYSIS: With horses like HANSEN, BODEMEISTER and now
TRINNIBERG, it seems likely that there will be a very fast pace. This scenario
should set it up nicely for the stalkers like GEMOLOGIST and CREATIVE
CAUSE, and the closers DULLAHAN and UNION RAGS. Like any Derby
with 20 horses, it could come down to which horse gets the best trip. Post
positions could come into play, so if one of the speed horses gets a nice
draw outside of the others, he could be dangerous. But this Derby should
go to one of the closers.
MAIN CONTENDERS: UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, DULLAHAN,
and GEMOLOGIST. I think the winner will come from these four. UNION
RAGS was everyone’s favorite before the Florida Derby. He did have some
trouble in that one, but if he was as good as I thought going in, he would
have overcome that. BODEMEISTER was awesome in Arkansas, but Bob
Baffert had to have him at his peak because if he didn’t win, he wouldn’t
even be in the Derby. Can he duplicate that performance? DULLAHAN and
GEMOLOGIST both won impressively and are eligible to move forward.
VALUE PLAYS: WENT THE DAY WELL will be trying to make it two
in a row for Team Valor, Graham Motion and John Velazquez and should
be the same price or higher than Animal Kingdom was last year. He looks
like he can handle the mile and one-quarter. DADDY NOSE BEST also will
be running at the end, and 20-1 on a Steve Asmussen runner is always an
appealing play.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $26 Exacta Box: DULLAHAN and GEMOLOGIST ($52)
• $4 Trifecta Key: DULLAHAN over GEMOLOGIST, UNION RAGS,
WENT THE DAY WELL and either HANSEN or BODEMEISTER,
whichever one gets the most favorable draw ($48)
Online Updates, Workout Reports Begin May 1
Make sure to top-off your knowledge by accessing Xpressbet’s Kentucky
Derby Wagering Guide Online Updates beginning May 1. Updates are free
and include revised expert analysis and selections based on weather, post
positions, etc, and Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse Derby analysis. New
this year: Online updates also will include observations from renowned
clocker Gary Young, who is on-track at Churchill Downs.
PICKS
1. DULLAHAN
2. GEMOLOGIST
3. UNION RAGS
4. WENT THE DAY WELL
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1
Stats & Trends:
TRIFECTA PAYOFFS
(Since 1995, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $14,054.15
High: $133,134.80
(Giacomo- Closing ArgumentAfleet Alex, 2005)
Low: $205.40
(Silver Charm-Captain BodgitFree House, 1997)
Notable: 11 of 17 Derby trifectas have paid
$1,200 or more for $2.
SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS
(Since 1996, $1 Payoffs)
Average: $102,040.58
High: $864,253.50
(Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet AlexDon’t Get Mad, 2005)
Low: $350.00
(Silver Charm-Captain BodgitFree House-Pulpit, 1997)
Notable: 7 of the last 8 fourth-place finishers
have been 23-1 or more.
HIGHEST-PRICED SUPER FINISHERS
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds Horse
Year
71.60 Closing Argument 2005 50.60 Mine That Bird 2009
50.30 Giacomo 2005
41.70 Limehouse 2004
Know This:
Fin.
2nd
1st
1st
4th
Oaklawn Super Finishers
At least one horse who prepped at Oaklawn
has finished in the Kentucky Derby superfecta each of the past 8 years, starting with
2004 champ Smarty Jones through last
year’s runner-up Nehro. Bodemeister,
Sabercat and Optimizer are Oaklawnprepped possible starters this year.
Derby Bodes Well for Baffert
by Jeff Siegel HRTV Analyst
ANALYSIS: The “Apollo Factor” reminds us that it’s been 130 years since
the Kentucky Derby has been won by a colt that failed to make a start as
a 2-year-old. It may be the only elimination rule remaining for those who
always have preferred to arrive at their Derby selection not by applying
standard handicapping theories, but by employing historical axioms. The
rule eliminates BODEMEISTER, who probably is no better than some others
who have tried and failed – Curlin and Forego come to mind – but on pure
form, he’s a stick out. And that fact trumps all.
MAIN CONTENDERS: BODEMEISTER is fastest on speed figures,
he’s bred to stay forever, he’s lightly raced with plenty of room for further
improvement, and he’s trained by a guy who knows how to win a Kentucky
Derby. Though not as fast in the speed figure department, GEMOLOGIST
is almost as impressive as BODEMEISTER on paper. The son of Tiznow is
unbeaten in five career starts, two of which have come over the Churchill
Downs main track. And DULLAHAN looks like the best of the climax
runners; he’s far more accomplished at this stage than his half-brother, Mine
That Bird, who shocked the world in the 2009 Derby.
VALUE PLAYS: Derby entrants that seem better than rated include
WENT THE DAY WELL, the winner of the same prep race (Spiral) for the
same trainer (Graham Motion) who won last year’s Derby; DADDY NOSE
BEST, a deep closing, improving colt who should relish 10 furlongs; and
EL PADRINO, an off-track freak whose stock will rise dramatically should
the rains come.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $46 Win: BODEMEISTER ($46)
• $5 Exacta Box: BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST and DULLAHAN ($30)
• $4 Exacta Box: BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST and
WENT THE DAY WELL ($24)
PICKS
1. BODEMEISTER
2. GEMOLOGIST
3. DULLAHAN
4. WENT THE DAY WELL
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1
Stats & Trends:
Final Prep Winners to Win Derby
Race
Horse
Year
Arkansas Derby Smarty Jones 2004
Blue Grass Strike the Gold 1991
Florida Derby
Big Brown 2008
Fountain of Youth Thunder Gulch 1995
Illinois Derby
War Emblem 2002
Lexington
Charismatic 1999
Louisiana Derby Grindstone 1996
Santa Anita Derby Sunday Silence 1989
Spiral
Animal Kingdom 2011
Wood Memorial Fusaichi Pegasus 2000
Winning Derby Post Positions
(Since 1900)
Post Wins
Post Wins
1
12
11
3
2
9
12
3
3
8
13
4
4
11
14
2
5
12
15
3
6
6
16
4
7
8
17
0
8
10
18
1
9
4
19
0
10 10
20
2
Know This:
Remember the Wood?
Wood Memorial alumni are a paltry
16: 0-0-0 in the Kentucky Derby since
Funny Cide and Empire Maker swept the
exacta in 2003. Last year, the Wood didn’t
produce a single Kentucky Derby starter.
This year’s potential Derby starters who
are Wood Memorial graduates are
Gemologist and Alpha.
I’ll Have Another Gets Another
by Jon White HRTV & Santa Anita Analyst
ANALYSIS: Can BODEMEISTER become the first horse since
Apollo (1882) to capture the Kentucky Derby without racing at 2? Will
BODEMEISTER regress after just three weeks since his Arkansas Derby
victory? Perhaps. But I see this as a wide-open race. Keep in mind Fountain
of Youth winner UNION RAGS has lost two of his last three. I think Santa
Anita Derby winner I’LL HAVE ANOTHER can be first or second with a
furlong to go. That would put him in a prime position to win the roses since
46 of the last 49 Derby winners have been first or second a furlong out.
MAIN CONTENDERS: BODEMEISTER boasts the highest Beyer Speed
Figure (108) and has recorded three straight triple-digit figures. No other
Kentucky Derby candidate has earned more than a single triple-digit Beyer.
BODEMEISTER, UNION RAGS, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, Wood Memorial
winner GEMOLOGIST and Blue Grass winner DULLAHAN all merit respect.
VALUE PLAYS: Two wins at 1 1/8 miles plus a 100 Beyer in the Sunland
Derby could equal a Kentucky Derby triumph at a sweet price for DADDY
NOSE BEST. EL PADRINO also is dangerous and probably will be a juicy
number. EL PADRINO ran fourth in the Florida Derby, but he’s the only
Kentucky Derby candidate other than BODEMEISTER and DADDY NOSE
BEST to have recorded a triple-digit Beyer.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $20 Win: I’LL HAVE ANOTHER ($20)
• $2 Exacta Box: CREATIVE CAUSE, DADDY NOSE BEST, EL PADRINO,
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, UNION RAGS ($40)
• $2 Exacta Box: ALPHA, CREATIVE CAUSE, GEMOLOGIST,
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, TAKE CHARGE INDY ($40)
White’s Line
Here is Jon White’s very early Derby line:
4-1 Bodemeister
12-1 Hansen
9-2 Union Rags
12-1 I’ll Have Another
6-1 Gemologist
20-1 Daddy Nose Best
8-1 Creative Cause
20-1 El Padrino
8-1 Dullahan
30-1 Daddy Long Legs
10-1 Take Charge Indy
30-1 Mark Valeski
12-1 Alpha
30-1 Trinniberg
30-1 Went the Day Well
50-1 Done Talking
50-1 Liaison
50-1 Optimizer
50-1 Prospective
50-1 Rousing Sermon
50-1 Sabercat
PICKS
1. I’LL HAVE ANOTHER
2. DADDY NOSE BEST
3. CREATIVE CAUSE
4. UNION RAGS
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1
Stats & Trends:
3-Y-O Maiden & Derby Winners
(Since 1933)
Maiden Win
Horse
May 6, 1933
Broker’s Tip*
Feb. 8, 1967
Proud Clarion
Feb. 3, 2001
Monarchos
Jan. 17, 1958
Tim Tam
Jan. 12, 1967
Lucky Debonair
Jan. 5, 1940
Gallahadion
Jan. 3, 1949
Ponder
Jan. 2, 2000
Fusaichi Pegasus
*Won Kentucky Derby as Maiden
Worst Final-Prep Finish to Win Derby
(Since 1906)
Fin.
Horse
Year
12th
Stone Street
1908
5th
Iron Liege
1957
5th
Count Turf
1951
5th
Doneraile
1913
5th
Pink Star
1907
Birthplaces of Derby Winners
Winners
State/Country
104 Kentucky
6
Florida
4
Virginia
3
California
3 Tennessee
2
New Jersey, Pennsylvania,
Texas, Canada, England
Know This:
Time on their Side
Since 1929, there have been only 5 Derby
winners who had more than a month off
before winning the roses. Amazingly, 3 of
the 5 have come in the past 4 years…and 4
in the past 6 years.
Union Rags Fills the Prescription
by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News Columnist
ANALYSIS: There have not been this many solid, consistent Derby
prospects in years. Nine of the 14 from the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have
won 2012 stakes. However, two horses that did not even run in that race,
the brilliantly fast BODEMEISTER and unbeaten GEMOLOGIST, are going
to be among the top choices. With the late decision to run TRINNIBERG, this
race has serious early speed, which should please all the trainers of the offthe-pace and closing types. The first turn, as usual, is going to be critical. The
contenders that get position there will be most dangerous.
MAIN CONTENDERS: UNION RAGS has the speed to get into the
race and the move to be there at the eighth pole, a prescription for Derby
success. BODEMEISTER is the only horse in the race with more than one
triple-digit Beyer figure. And he has three. His dominating Arkansas Derby
win was easily the most impressive Derby prep. Wood Memorial winner
GEMOLOGIST has improved his Beyer figure in each of his five starts,
all victories. HANSEN is always dangerous because he has killer speed.
DULLAHAN was flying at the finish of his Blue Grass win when he ran
HANSEN down in the stretch. CREATIVE CAUSE has never run a bad race
in eight starts. Santa Anita Derby winner I’LL HAVE ANOTHER should be
among the talented crowd fighting for position on the first turn.
VALUE PLAYS: CREATIVE CAUSE could be one of the many terrific
horses that is overlooked because you can’t bet them all. By Giant’s
Causeway, this colt certainly looks like the distance should not be an issue.
Showed big turn-acceleration when a solid second in the Santa Anita Derby.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $1 Superfecta Key: UNION RAGS over CREATIVE CAUSE, DULLAHAN,
GEMOLOGIST, BODEMEISTER and I’LL HAVE ANOTHER ($60)
• $40 Exacta: UNION RAGS over CREATIVE CAUSE ($40)
Changing History?
BODEMEISTER will attempt to become the first horse since Apollo (1882)
to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 1956, Kentucky
Derby starters who did not race at age 2 are 0-for-48. Strodes Creek, second
in 1994; Agitate, third in 1974, Reinvested, third in 1982 and Curlin, third in
2007, finished better than fourth. Forego (’73), Amano (’76), Pulpit (’97) and
Atswhatimtalknabout (’03) were fourth.
PICKS
1. UNION RAGS
2. CREATIVE CAUSE
3. BODEMEISTER
4. DULLAHAN
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1
Stats & Trends:
2011 Derby Handle Totals
(Handle in Millions Except Hi-5 & P6)
Pool
Handle
Win/Place/Show
$46.10
Exacta
$20.50
Trifecta$24.90
Superfecta $9.90
Super High Five
$272,178
Pick Four $2.29
Oaks/Derby Double $2.20
Pick Six $847,131
Lowest-Priced Derby Favorites
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds Horse
Year
Fin.
.90 Arazi 1992 8th
1.80 Point Given 2001
5th
2.20 Holy Bull 1994 12th
2.30 Fusaichi Pegasus 2000 1st
2.40 Big Brown 2008 1st
Highest-Priced Derby Favorites in History
(Odds to $1)
Odds
Horse
Year Fin.
6.30 Lookin At Lucky 2010 6th
6.00 Harlan’s Holiday 2002 7th
5.50 Sweetnorthernsaint 2006 7th
5.20 Dialed In 2011 8th
4.90 Street Sense 2007 1st
4.80 General Challenge/ 1999 5th
Excellent Meeting
4.40 Prairie Bayou
1993 2nd
4.10 Smarty Jones
2004 1st
Know This:
Two is Timely
Each of the past 5 Kentucky Derby winners
had just 2 preps as 3-year-olds, namely
Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird,
Super Saver and Animal Kingdom.
Time for ’Romans’ Conquest
by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host
ANALYSIS: A tumultuous run-up to the Triple Crown season has left the
2012 Derby with more uncertainty than usual as the BC Juvenile trifecta and
winter-book heavyweights HANSEN, UNION RAGS and CREATIVE CAUSE
suffered armor-denting defeats en route to Kentucky. A host of emergent,
well-connected players, including BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST,
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST, TAKE CHARGE INDY and
DULLAHAN, all arrive at the Downs with solid credentials, enthusiastic
supporters and legitimate cases to wear the rose blanket.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Identifying the contenders is easy with the 9
above all capable. Question is how to approach the wagering once the
post positions are drawn and a pace scenario established. The presence of
fleet TRINNIBERG compromises a moderate early pace for HANSEN and/
or BODEMEISTER with the prompting presence of I’LL HAVE ANOTHER,
TAKE CHARGE INDY and GEMOLOGIST. Second flight contenders, led by
UNION RAGS, will attack in the final half-mile as closers reach contention.
With a meltdown highly possible, DULLAHAN, a half-brother to Mine That
Bird and from the team that finished 3rd with Paddy O’Prado in 2010, looms
the choice to run by them all.
VALUE PLAYS: Since 2006, top Oaklawn prep finishers have compiled
a Derby record of 6: 1-2-2-1 and rallying SABERCAT can charge the exotics.
EL PADRINO has the attractive ‘post-hype’ look of a horse heralded in
February and forgotten in April and trainer Todd Pletcher has authored
two big tote Derby placements before with Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink.
DONE TALKING and ROUSING SERMON are blueprints for the kind of
runners that annually fill out the super at 40-1.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $4 Exacta Part-Wheel: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT,
UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY,
GEMOLOGIST, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST and
MARK VALESKI ($40)
• $1 Superfecta Part-Wheel: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT,
UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY with
EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN,
TAKE CHARGE INDY with DONE TALKING and
ROUSING SERMON ($60)
PICKS
1. DULLAHAN
2. EL PADRINO
3. SABERCAT
4. DONE TALKING
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1
Stats & Trends:
No April Prep
(Since 1920)
Starts 1st
2nd
3rd
58
4
3
3
First: Animal Kingdom (2011)
Mine That Bird (2009)
Big Brown (2008)
Needles (1956)
Second: Ice Box (2010)
Hard Spun (2007)
Staretor (1941)
Third: Mucho Macho Man (2011)
Perfect Drift (2002)
Candy Spots (1963)
Fastest Derbies
Time
Horse
1:59 2/5 Secretariat 1:59 4/5 Monarchos 2:00 Northern Dancer 2:00 1/5 Spend A Buck 2:00 2/5 Decidedly Wire-to-Wire Derby Winners
(Last 50 Years)
Year Horse
Choice
2002 War Emblem
9th
1988 Winning Colors 2nd
1985 Spend A Buck 2nd
1976 Bold Forbes
2nd
1972 Riva Ridge Fav.
1966 Kauai King Fav.
Know This:
Year
1973
2001
1964
1985
1962
Field Half
18 47:00
17 46:4/5
13 45:4/5
9 45:4/5
16 47:3/5
15 46:1/5
Smile for the Camera
Each of the last 7 Derbies has been decided
by more than 2 lengths, including Animal
Kingdom’s 2-3/4 length score in 2011.
The last time the photo-finish camera was
used was in 1999 when Charismatic and
Menifee hit the wire together.
866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737)
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