kentucky derby

KENTUCKY DERBY
Wagering Guide
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 30
I’ll Have Another wins 2012 Kentucky Derby. ©Horsephotos.com/NTRA
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In addition to race-by-race expert commentary, inside you’ll also find useful Stats and Trends, a handy
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SEE HOW THEY PREP
By Jeremy Plonk, Horseplayernow.com
Since 1986, every Kentucky Derby champion except Charismatic exited a 9-furlong final tune-up.
Fast finishes often indicate a positive result in the Kentucky Derby.
Spiral Stakes (March 23): Black Onyx rallied fivewide to collar the field while coming home in 38.78 the
final three furlongs and 13.62 the last eighth. Despite
a much slower pace in the Spiral this year than last, he
did not come home quicker than Went the Day Well, last
year’s Derby fourth.
Sunland Derby (March 24): Govenor Charlie finished his final three furlongs in 37.58 and final furlong in
12.58. He set one of three track records on the blazingfast surface at Sunland Park while contesting a fast pace
and drawing away late.
Florida Derby (March 30): The Trakus data shows
that Orb forged home past Itsmyluckyday behind a
37.72 final three furlongs and 12.87 final eighth. This
late pace was decidedly slower than wire-to-wire Florida
Derby winner Take Charge Indy posted last year.
Louisiana Derby (March 30): Wide and rallying
winner Revolutionary came home the final threeeighths in approximately 37.90 with a final furlong on
the lead in 12.52. Runner-up Mylute matched that final
eighth and actually ran a bit quicker the final three furlongs from farther back, clocking approximately 37.65.
Wood Memorial (April 6): Verrazano came
home the final three-eighths in approximately 36.20, a
sharp time, and a final furlong in 12.55 while holding the
lead. Runner-up Normandy Invasion rallied with approximated 36-flat and 12.20 come-home splits.
Santa Anita Derby (April 6): Trakus clocked
Goldencents in a modest 38.32 over the final 3 furlongs
and just 13.04 the final furlong. By comparison stablemate I’ll Have Another went 36.34 and 12.42 in his
SA Derby win a year prior.
Blue Grass (April 13): Rallying last-to-first, winner
Java’s War rocketed home in 36.19 the final 3 furlongs
and 12.15 the final eighth, according to Trakus. He
closed about a length or 2 slower than Dullahan the
year prior. Bridesmaids Palace Malice (37.23, 12.93) and
Charming Kitten (36.85, 12.47) showed the third-place
finisher moving much better late.
Arkansas Derby (April 13): Wide, stalking winner
Overanalyze covered the final three furlongs in approximately 38.80 with a final furlong in about 12.70.
Runner-up Frac Daddy had a similar trip but finished up
in about 39.10 and 13.30.
KENTUCKY DERBY CAPSULE
Year Winner ($2 payoff)
Jockey-Trainer Combo
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Gutierrez-O’Neill
28
Velazquez-Motion
42
Borel-Pletcher
21
Borel-Woolley
34
Desormeaux-R. Dutrow 35
Borel-Nafzger
21
Prado-Matz
35
Smith-Shirreffs
28
I’ll Have Another ($32.60) Animal Kingdom ($43.80)
Super Saver ($18.00 )
Mine That Bird ($103.20)
Big Brown ($6.80*)
Street Sense ($11.80*)
Barbaro ($14.20)
Giacomo ($102.60)
*Starting Favorite
First
Second
1-SA Derby
1-Spiral
2-Arkansas Derby
4-Sunland Derby
1-Florida Derby 2-Blue Grass
1-FL Derby
4-SA Derby
Pos. ¼ M Into Race
Pos. ½ M Into Race
Fav. Fin
(Odds)
7th-8L
12th- 6-1/4L
6th- 5-1/2L
19th- 14L
4th- 1 ½L
18th-15L
5th-3 ¼ L
18th-16L
6th-6-1/2L
10th-6L 6th-8L
12th-7L 6th- 2 ½L
19th-19L
4th-4L
18th-14L
2nd (4/1)
8th (5/1)
6th (6/1)
18th (7/2)
1st (2/1)
1st (9/2)
7th (5/1)
7th (5/2)
EXPERT SELECTION GRID
Expert Bob Neumeier
Days Prep Fin.-
Off Prep Loc.
(NBC Sports)
Mike Battaglia
Jeff Siegel
Jon White
Dick Jerardi
Steve Byk
(NBC Sports)
(HRTV)
(HRTV)
(Phila. Daily News)
(SiriusXM Radio)
Java’s War OrbRevolutionaryOrbGoldencentsOrb
Orb
Normandy Invasion
Verrazano
Third
Verrazano
Verrazano
Orb
Fourth
Normandy Invasion
Java’s War
Normandy Invasion
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, April 30
Revolutionary
Itsmyluckyday
Goldencents
Goldencents
Verrazano
Java’s War
Itsmyluckyday
Normandy Invasion
Oxbow
Derby Extras
by Jeremy Plonk NBC Sports Triple Crown Researcher
Below are a few juicy Stats & Trends and Know This nuggets to get you started.
Stats & Trends:
Synthetic-to-Dirt Derby Starters
Year Horse
Fin.
2012Dullahan*
3rd
4th
2012 Went the Day Well
2012Hansen*
9th
18th
2012Prospective
2012
Daddy Long Legs
20th
2011
Animal Kingdom
1st
Master of Hounds *
5th
2011
2011Santiva
6th
7th
2011 Brilliant Speed
2011
Derby Kitten
13th
2011
Decisive Moment
14th
2011
Midnight Interlude *
16th
2011Twinspired
17th
2011
Comma to the Top
19th
2010
Paddy O’Prado *
3rd
2010
Make Music For Me
4th
2010
Lookin At Lucky *
6th
2010
Stately Victor
8th
2010
Dean’s Kitten
14th
2010
Sidney’s Candy *
17th
2009
Pioneerof The Nile *
2nd
2009
Chocolate Candy *
5th
2009
Join in the Dance
7th
2009
General Quarters *
10th
2009
Hold Me Back *
12th
2009Advice
13th
2009
Mr. Hot Stuff
15th
2008
Colonel John *
6th
2008
Pyro *
8th
2008
Cowboy Cal
9th
2008Visionaire
12th
2008
Cool Coal Man
15th
2008
Bob Black Jack
16th
2008
Big Truck
18th
2008Adriano
19th
2008Monba
20th
2007
Street Sense *
1st
2007
Hard Spun *
2nd
2007Sedgefield
5th
2007Dominican
11th
2007Zanjero
12th
2007
Great Hunter
13th
2007Teuflesberg
17th
* less than 20-1 odds
Highest Pre-Derby Beyer Figures
Horse
Beyer Fin.
Year
2012Bodemeister
1082nd
2011 Soldat
10311th
2010 Devil May Care/
100 10th
Sidney’s Candy
100 17th
10811th
2009 Dunkirk
2008 Bob Black Jack
109 16th
108 1st
2007 Street Sense
2006 Sinister Minister
116 16th
2005 Bellamy Road
120 5th
2004 Read the Footnotes 113 7th
2003 Empire Maker
111 2nd
2002 War Emblem
112 1st
2001 Millennium Wind 114 11th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 111 1st
1999Charismatic
108 1st
Excellent Meeting 108 5th
General Challenge 108 11th
( Since 1999)
Know This:
Experience Optional
11 of the last 13 Kentucky Derby-winning
trainers had 2 or fewer previous attempts
at the roses before winning the race.
Seven of the 11 won in their Derby-day
debuts.
Two Will Do
Six consecutive Kentucky Derby winners
have had just 2 preps as 3-year-olds:
Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That
Bird, Super Saver, Animal Kingdom
and I’ll Have Another.
Wait for Me!
Horses racing dead-last early in 5 of the
last 7 Kentucky Derbies have managed to
finish in the superfecta. The odds of the
quintet of late-running bombs have been
between 24-1 and 50-1.
Clocker Gary Young
Read private clocker Gary Young’s workout reports in online Updates beginning April 30.
Orb – He’s a talented colt. I’m a huge Malibu Moon fan. Orb’s probably the
most natural 1 1/4 - miles Derby contender. He got hot before the Florida
Derby, but he ran through that to win. Note that Dreaming of Julia (a filly) ran
two seconds faster than this Florida Derby winner on the same afternoon.
Normandy Invasion – He always seems to have an excuse why he
didn’t perform better. It’s been a while since he’s won, but his Wood was
encouraging. He’s a fluid-moving horse and finished with his feet beneath him
in the Wood. He should get the Derby distance and is one to use.
Govenor Charlie – I watched him work at Santa Anita and liked what I saw.
He’s talented and moving forward. Do his connections wish he had had
another race before the Derby? Of course, but that’s not reality. A recent visit
to the Rood & Riddle clinic is not a positive.
Verrazano – It’s a bit en vogue to jump off his band wagon. I don’t think
jockey John Velazquez reached the absolute bottom with this one in the
Wood. Verrazano’s not bred like a 1 1/4-miles horse and not built like one
either, but if he’s that much more talented he can get the job done.
Goldencents – He surprised me by winning the Santa Anita Derby. Before
the race, I assumed he might be heading the other way. That victory could be
downgraded a bit because Flashback, who looked like he was going to roar
past Goldencents off the turn and finished a close second, was hurt in the race.
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, April 30
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Meet The 2013 Derby Contenders
by Johnny D Xpressbet.com
VERRAZANO
NORMANDY INVASION
He has an undefeated record in four career starts, including
This Tapit colt has not won a graded stakes race in five career
stakes wins in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Grade 1 Wood
starts, but he did finish second in the Grade 2 Remsen, behind
Memorial at Aqueduct. He’s big, strong, fast and talented. What’s Overanalyze, and in the Grade 1 Wood, chasing Verrazano,
not to like? Detractors point to his Wood Memorial score where
both at Aqueduct. He had a horrible trip in the Risen Star in
he had things his own way from start to finish and merely kept
Feb.—breaking slowly and racing extremely wide. Despite the
Normandy Invasion and Vyjack at bay, rather than drawing
trouble, he finished fifth, beaten less than two lengths. Jockey
away from them in the stretch.
Javier Castellano had a choice
Trainer Todd Pletcher and
between this colt and the Todd
2013 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3 Pletcher-trained Revolutionary
jockey John Velazquez go for
(March 22-24)
their second Derby scores
and selected this Chad Brown
each.
runner.
Wagering
Morning Final
$2 Will
VYJACK
He’s been as consistent as
any sophomore, both as a
2-year-old and in the 3-yearold preps. In fact, he’s only
lost one race in five career
starts. That defeat was a
third-place finish in the Wood
to Verrazano and Normandy
Invasion. He may have had
some respiratory issues in that
race and spent some time in
a hyperbaric chamber before
shipping to Louisville. He has
enough speed to stalk Derby
pacesetters and he’s shown the
ability to close.
Interest
Line Odds Odds
Pay
All Other 3 YO’s
6-1 5-1
$13.40
Verrazano
7/2
7-1
$17.00
Vyjack
10-1 10-1 $23.20
Revolutionary
15-1 12-1$27.80
Orb
10-1 13-1$29.60
Normandy Invasion
20-1
18-1
$39.20
Java’s War
30-1
30-1
$65.40
Overanalyze
30-1 49-1$101.60
Goldencents
30-1 49-1$101.80
Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
REVOLUTIONARY
He proved a game winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, barely
besting Mylute through the stretch. He also showed his grit and
determination in winning the Withers by a neck over another
longshot foe, despite a very troubled trip. These narrow, hardfought triumphs have left handicappers wondering whether or
not this War Pass colt has the quality to defeat the very best, or if
he just does what he needs to do to win.
ORB
This colt by Malibu Moon developed quickly as a 3-year-old for
Hall-of-Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who has never won a
Kentucky Derby. Orb won an allowance race in his first start this
season and parlayed that into victories in the Grade 2 Fountain
of Youth and Grade 1 Florida Derby—all at Gulfstream Park. His
running style should have him travelling about mid-pack in
the Kentucky Derby, prepared to launch his strong closing kick.
Based on his finish in the Florida Derby the 1 1/4 -miles Derby
distance appears within his range.
This colt has always shown
ability for trainer Ken McPeek,
but he didn’t put it all together
until the Grade 1 Blue Grass
Stakes at Keeneland, which he
won. Before that he was second
to Verrazano in the Grade 2
Tampa Bay Derby, three lengths
behind the winner. He did
win an ungraded stakes at
Louisiana Downs as a 2-yearold. Java’s War has no early
speed and prefers to make
his closing charge from well
behind the field.
OVERANALYZE
The name says it all when it comes to the Kentucky Derby
because handicappers tend to ‘overanalyze’ this race. It’s clear
this one is in good current form, as his victory in the Grade 1
Arkansas Derby proves. He has won four of seven career starts
and has enough early speed to be well-placed in the preliminary
Derby running, poised to kick home. He has a pair of Grade 2
stakes wins to his credit and a Grade 1 tally. That’s an awfully
strong resume for a runner who’s liable to be overlooked in the
wagering on Derby Day.
GOLDENCENTS
Trainer Doug O’Neill looks for consecutive Kentucky Derby
wins with this Into Mischief colt. The conditioner won last year’s
edition with longshot I’ll Have Another, ridden by low-profile
jockey Mario Gutierrez. Kevin Krigger, another Kentucky Derby
maiden rider, will pilot Goldencents. This colt has speed and
O’Neill and Krigger were able to get him to relax in winning the
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Expect Goldencents to use some of
his natural quickness to stalk or perhaps set the pace.
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, April 30
JAVA’S WAR
Animal Kingdom Redux?
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter
ANALYSIS: Stamina and peaking at the precise time are the two
essential ingredients in winning the Kentucky Derby. Two-year-old form
is meaningless. Flashy prep races at shorter distances may get you to
Louisville, but will stop you dead in your tracks at the eighth pole of the
1-¼ miles Derby distance. These judgments of who can (and who cannot)
handle the distance are tricky guessing games. But, however perplexing
that question is, it’s the one handicappers need to answer.
MAIN CONTENDERS: That said, JAVA’S WAR reminds me of the
2011 Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. Both are bred for turf; both are bred
to run all day; both seem to have peaked at the right time; both won a
prep on synthetics; and both were/are flying under the radar screen. ORB
is an equine version of Superman’s Clark Kent, changing in a telephone
booth in Florida earlier this year to leap tall buildings in a single bound.
VERRAZANO leads the Todd Pletcher machinery with an unbeaten slate
and enjoys the best money rider on Earth in John Velazquez. NORMANdY
INVASION was nipping at VERRAZANO’s heels in the Wood, rating a
similar chance in Louisville.
VALUE PLAYS: Draw a line through the Florida Derby and
ITSMYLUCKYDAY enjoys the fastest speed figures, but distance rates
the major question. Should CHARMING KITTEN take to the CD main
track, he could complete a juicy superfecta. At 10-1 or higher, a case could
be made for VYJACK, WILL TAKE CHARGE, GOVENOR CHARLIE,
OVERANALYZE and OXBOW.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $15 Exacta Box: JAVA’S WAR, ORB and VERRAZANO ($90)
• $3 Exacta Part-Wheel: Java’s War, Orb, Verrazano
over NORMANDY INVASION ($9)
• $1 Superfecta: Java’s War over Orb over Verrazano over
Normandy Invasion ($1)
Home Cooking
Home-bred horses racing for their breeders have won the Kentucky Derby six
times in the last nine years--2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2011.
PICKS
1. JAVA’S WAR
2. ORB
3. VERRAZANO
4. NORMANDY INVASION
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 30
Stats & Trends:
WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS
(Last 25 years, Odds to $1)
Win Odds
Average: 13.74
High: 50.60 (Mine That Bird, 2009)
Low: 2.30 (Fuscaichi Pegasus, 2000)
Notable: 3 of last 4 Derby winners were
15-to-1 or more
Place Odds
Average: 13.91
High: 71.60 (Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: .80 (Easy Goer-entry, 1989)
Notable: The Derby runner-up has been
double-digit odds 4 of the last 5 years.
Show Odds
Average: 14.64
High: 86.90 (Mane Minister, 1991)
Low: .80 (Awe Inspiring-entry, 1989)
Notable: The last favorite to run third was
Indian Charlie in 1998.
EXACTA PAYOFFS
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $772.27
High: $9,814.80
(Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005)
Low: $15.20
(Sunday Silence-Easy Goer, 1989)
Notable: 5 of the last 6 exactas paid
between $101-$329.
Know This:
Sunshine State Send-Offs
5 of the last 7 Kentucky Derby winters spent
the bulk of their 3-year-old winter-spring
seasons stabled in the state of Florida. New
Mexico-based Mine That Bird in 2009 and
California-trained I’ll Have Another in 2012
were the exceptions.
EXOTIC WAGERING CHART
Kentucky Derby exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs.
Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.
exacta box: ($2 Wager)
trifecta keys: ($1 Wager)
2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4
3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
exacta wheel: ($2 Wager)
One Horse with All
6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18
trifecta box: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
Superfecta box: ($1 Wager)
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360
3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
Superfecta wheels: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504
(Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)
trifecta wheels: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All
(Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72
One Horse with Two Horses with All with All
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
(Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1
or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)
One Horse with Two Horses with All
(Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a
All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1)
7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
Superfecta Keys: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates
Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, April 30
All-In For Orb
by Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Analyst
ANALYSIS: As usual there seems to be plenty of early speed in this year’s
Derby, so the chances of a front-running winner seem slim. The undefeated
VERRAZANO is one of those runners with plenty of speed, but jockey John
Velazquez probably will try to rate him just off of the lead. ORB is a horse
who has enough tactical speed to get a good position, but also is capable
of coming from well off of the pace if the situation dictates. That versatility
will serve him well and he has looked like a horse who can handle the Derby
distance. Late runners NORMANDY INVASION and JAVA’S WAR both
will benefit from the expected fast pace.
MAIN CONTENDERS: ORB steadily has improved throughout his
seven-race career. He owns two wins at 1 1/8 miles and trainer Shug
McGaughey and company seem very confident in his ability to go
farther. VERRAZANO never has lost and wasn’t really tested until the
Wood. He showed his gameness in that one, and figures to be ready for his
best performance in the Derby. If he is in front turning for home, he will
be tough to catch. GOLDenCENTS ran the best race of his career in the
Santa Anita Derby. He will need a similar effort and a good trip under Kevin
Krigger if he is to be a factor.
VALUE PLAYS: ITSMYLUCKYDAY actually was favored over ORB in
Florida, but may be overlooked in the Derby betting. He definitely could
figure in the gimmicks. REVOLUTIONARY is battle-tested, and with all the
Todd Pletcher-trained runners taking money, he could be a solid price.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: ORB over VERRAZANO, JAVA’S WAR,
ITSMYLUCKYDAY, NORMANDY INVASION and
REVOLUTIONARY ($100)
Online Updates, Workout Reports Begin April 30
Make sure to top-off your knowledge by accessing Xpressbet’s Kentucky
Derby Wagering Guide Online Updates beginning Tuesday, April 30.
Updates are free and include revised expert analysis and selections based
on weather, post positions, etc, plus Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse
Derby analysis. Returning this year: Online updates also will include
observations from renowned clocker Gary Young, who is on-track at
Churchill Downs.
PICKS
1. ORB
2. NORMANDY INVASION
3. VERRAZANO
4. JAVA’S WAR
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 30
Stats & Trends:
TRIFECTA
(Since 1995, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $13,443.68
High: $133,134.80
(Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex, 2005)
Low: $205.40
(Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free House, 1997)
Notable: 12 of 18 Derby trifectas have paid
$1,200 or more for $2.
SUPERFECTA
(Since 1996, $1 Payoffs)
Average: $98,864.45
High: $864,253.50
(Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet AlexDon’t Get Mad, 2005)
Low: $350.00
(Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free HousePulpit, 1997)
Notable: 8 of the last 9 fourth-place
finishers have been 23-1 or more.
HIGHEST-PRICED SUPER FINISHERS
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds
Horse
Year
71.60 Closing Argument 2005 50.60 Mine That Bird 2009
50.30 Giacomo 2005
41.70 Limehouse 2004
Know This:
Fin.
2nd
1st
1st
4th
Oaklawn Cements Super
Nine consecutive Kentucky Derby
superfectas have included at least one
horse prepped at Oaklawn. The streak
began with Smarty Jones in 2004 and
continued with runner-up Bodemeister
last year.
This Revolution Will Be Televised
by Jeff Siegel HRTV Analyst
ANALYSIS: The Kentucky Derby winner must be fast, versatile and
adaptable, able to cope with extreme conditions of traffic, pace and
distance. REVOLUTIONARY proved all of that and more in his two most
recent victories, weaving through severe traffic in the stretch to win the
Withers, and then circling extremely wide to take the Louisiana Derby.
He has the proper style for 10 furlongs, has worked sharply since arriving
in Kentucky, owns the pedigree to act on a wet surface if the situation
demands and gains three-time Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel. That’s a
lot of plusses.
MAIN CONTENDERS: REVOLUTIONARY is one of maybe five starters
that would not surprise with a victory. VERRAZANO is unbeaten in four
starts and it’s likely that trainer Todd Pletcher hasn’t gotten anywhere
near his bottom yet. ORB will be seeking his fifth straight win and should
continue to move forward with distance. Jockey Javier Castellano jumped
off REVOLUTIONARY to ride NORMANDY INVASION, whose next 2013
start very likely will be his best. And GOLDENCENTS’ 105 Beyer number in
his Santa Anita Derby victory was 11 points better than what last year’s “Run
for the Roses” winner, I’ll Have Another, achieved in the same event.
VALUE PLAYS: There’s no way to truly evaluate Euro-shipper LINES OF
BATTLE, but if there’s a shocker in the Derby, he might be the one. The son
of War Front never has raced over conventional dirt, but he’s bred top and
bottom to excel on that surface, and his victory in the UAE Derby showed
that 1 1/4 miles shouldn’t be an issue. He has that “stranger danger” look.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $40 Win: REVOLUTIONARY ($40)
• $5 Exacta Box: REVOLUTIONARY, VERRAZANO and ORB ($30)
• $2 Exacta Box: REVOLUTIONARY, VERRAZANO and
NORMANDY INVASION ($12)
• $2 Exacta box: REVOLUTIONARY, VERRAZANO and
GOLDENCENTS ($12)
• $1 Exacta box: REVOLUTIONARY, VERRAZANO and
LINES OF BATTLE ($6)
PICKS
1. REVOLUTIONARY
2. VERRAZANO
3. ORB
4. NORMANDY INVASION
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 30
Stats & Trends:
2012 Derby Handle Totals
(Handle in Millions Except Super High Five)
Pool
Handle
$56.6
Win/Place/Show
Exacta
$23.8
Trifecta$28.7
Superfecta $10.8
Super High Five
$341,917
$2.75
Pick Four Pick Five $1.07
Pick Six
$1.8
Oaks/Derby Double $2.3
Lowest-Priced Derby Favorites
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds Horse
Year
Given
1.80
Point
2001
2.20
Holy Bull 1994 2.40
Big Brown 2008
Fin.
5th
12th
1st
Highest-Priced Derby Favorites in History
(Odds to $1)
Odds
Horse
Year Fin.
6.30 Lookin At Lucky 2010 6th
6.00 Harlan’s Holiday 2002 7th
5.50 Sweetnorthernsaint 2006 7th
5.20 Dialed In 2011 8th
4.90 Street Sense 2007 1st
4.80 General Challenge/ 1999 5th
Excellent Meeting
4.40 Prairie Bayou
1993 2nd
4.20 Bodemeister
2012 2nd
4.10 Smarty Jones
2004 1st
Know This:
Wood Chipped
Wood Memorial alumni are a paltry
18: 0-0-0 in the Kentucky Derby since
Funny Cide and Empire Maker swept
the exacta in 2003. Last year Gemologist
was 16th and Alpha 12th.
Embraceable Orb
by Jon White HRTV & Santa Anita Analyst
ANALYSIS: ORB has an excellent chance to be first or second with a
furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby. That would put him in a prime position
to win the roses because 47 of the last 50 Derby winners have been first
or second with a furlong to run. I also think ORB has what it takes to win
at 1-1/4 miles, just like his maternal grandsire, Unbridled. And ORB has
a great trainer in Shug McGaughey. All in all, ORB is quite embraceable.
REVOLUTIONARY, who might relish the distance, also merits respect.
VERRAZANO is undefeated, but can he become the only horse other than
Apollo in 1882 to capture the Derby without having raced at age 2? I’m
skeptical. VERRAZANO’s Beyer Speed Figures also have steadily decreased
in his last three races as the distances have increased.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Based on the historical and tactical
factors I emphasize, I regard these six as the main contenders, in
order of preference—ORB, REVOLUTIONARY, GOLDENCENTS,
ITSMYLUCKYDAY, OVERANALYZE and JAVA’S WAR. They have the
foundation, experience and tactical ability to get the job done.
VALUE PLAYS: UAE Derby winner LINES OF BATTLE is interesting.
Considering the bar does not seem to be set very high in the Beyer
department this year, perhaps the Kentucky Derby will be taken for the
first time by a UAE Derby winner. The only three probable Kentucky Derby
starters to have earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure this year are
VERRAZANO (105, 101), GOLDENCENTS (105) and ITSMYLUCKYDAY
(104, 102), but they might be more effective going shorter than 1 1/4 miles.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $2 Exacta Wheel: ORB over All ($38)
• $2 Exacta Wheel: All over ORB ($38)
• $14 Win: REVOLUTIONARY ($14)
• $10 Win: LINES OF BATTLE ($10)
17 is the Loneliest Number
Even though the race is 1 1/4 miles, post position is important in the
Kentucky Derby. By winning last year’s event I’ll Have Another exorcised
post 19 demons. The only post position still winless is 17. Will this year’s
renewal end that losing streak?
Stats & Trends:
3-Y-O Maiden & Derby Winners
(Since 1933)
Maiden Win
Horse
May 6, 1933
Broker’s Tip*
Feb. 8, 1967
Proud Clarion
Feb. 3, 2001
Monarchos
Jan.17, 1958
Tim Tam
Jan.12, 1967
Lucky Debonair
Jan. 5, 1940
Gallahadion
Jan. 3, 1949
Ponder
Jan. 2, 2000
Fusaichi Pegasus
*Won Kentucky Derby as Maiden
Worst Final Prep Finish to Win Derby
(Since 1906)
Fin.
Horse
Year
12th
Stone Street
1908
5th
Iron Liege
1957
5th
Count Turf
1951
5th Doneraile
1913
5th
Pink Star
1907
Winter/Spring Homes of Winners
Year Horse
State
2012 I’ll Have Another
California
2011 Animal Kingdom Florida/Kentucky
2010 Super Saver
Florida/Arkansas
2009 Mine That Bird
New Mexico
2008 Big Brown
Florida
2007 Street Sense
Florida/Kentucky
2006Barbaro
Florida
2005Giacomo
California
2004 Smarty Jones
Arkansas
2003 Funny Cide
Florida/New York
2002 War Emblem
Louisiana/Illinois
2001 Monarchos
Florida/New York
Know This:
Name Game
If Orb wins the Derby, he’ll join 1923 winner
Zev as the shortest-named Derby winner
in history.
PICKS
1. ORB
2. REVOLUTIONARY
3. GOLDENCENTS
4. ITSMYLUCKYDAY
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 30
Fastest Preps Prove Best
by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News Columnist
ANALYSIS: This is a particularly slow group of 3-year-olds, as just five
horses in the prospective field of 20 have even hit 100 on the Beyer scale.
It is also a race that does have much early speed, but some of the better
horses do have that early punch. Deep closers could be at a disadvantage
as this really does not look like a Derby with one of those suicidal, contested
paces. Bottom line, the quality early speed looks very dangerous.
MAIN CONTENDERS: VERRAZANO is unbeaten and, until his close
win in the Wood Memorial, untested. The colt has earned two triple-digit
Beyer figures and, unless he draws an inside post and gets caught in
traffic at the start, has the speed to get position near the front and keep it.
GOLDENCENTS had the best prep when he prompted a very fast pace in
the Santa Anita Derby, made a big move to get the lead and ran away from
a late challenge. ORB has been brilliant in 2013, winning three two-turn
races and finishing strongly in each of them. ITSMYLUCKYDAY proved his
talent in January at Gulfstream Park, but did not have the same punch after
a two-month layoff. NORMANDY INVASION got back to his strong 2-yearold form with his terrific finish in the Wood. VYJACK was beaten for the first
time in the Wood, but never stopped running hard.
VALUE PLAYS: ITSMYLUCKYDAY was the beaten favorite in the
Florida Derby, but probably needed the race after the long layoff. His wins in
the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull were spectacular. If he can go just a
bit forward from those races, he will have a big chance at a nice price in this
what-have-you-done-for-me lately world.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $1 Superfecta Key: GOLDENCENTS over ITSMYLUCKYDAY, ORB,
VYJACK, VERRAZANO and NORMANDY INVASION ($60)
• $40 Exacta: GOLDENCENTS over ITSMYLUCKYDAY ($40)
Changing History?
Verrazano or Govenor Charlie will attempt to become the first
horse since Apollo (1882) to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at
age 2. Since 1956, Kentucky Derby starters who did not race at age 2 are
0-for-49. Bodemeister (second in 2012), Strodes Creek (second in 1994),
Agitate (third in 1974), Reinvested (third in 1982) and Curlin (third in 2007)
finished better than fourth. Forego (’73), Amano (’76), Pulpit (’97) and
Atswhatimtalknabout (’03) were fourth.
PICKS
1. GOLDENCENTS
2. ITSMYLUCKYDAY
3. VERRAZANO
4. NORMANDY INVASION
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 30
Stats & Trends:
No April Prep
(Since 1920)
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
64
4
3
3
1st: Animal Kingdom (2011)
Mine That Bird (2009)
Big Brown (2008)
Needles (1956)
2nd: Ice Box (2010)
Hard Spun (2007)
Staretor (1941)
3rd: Mucho Macho Man (2011)
Perfect Drift (2002)
Candy Spots (1963)
Fastest Derbies
Time
Horse
1:59 2/5 Secretariat 1:59 4/5 Monarchos 2:00 Northern Dancer 2:00 1/5 Spend A Buck 2:00 2/5 Decidedly Year
1973
2001
1964
1985
1962
Wire-to-Wire Derby Winners
(Last 50 Years)
Year Horse
Choice Field Half
2002 War Emblem
9th
18 47 flat
1988 Winning Colors 2nd
17 46 4/5
1985 Spend A Buck 2nd
13 45 4/5
1976 Bold Forbes
2nd
9 45 4/5
1972 Riva Ridge Fav.
16 47 3/5
1966 Kauai King Fav.
15 46 1/5
Know This:
Rookie Riders
Jockey Mario Gutierrez (I’ll Have Another)
became the second Derby rookie to win the
roses in the past decade, following Stewart
Elliott aboard Smarty Jones in 2004. The
previous first-time Derby rider to win was
Ron Franklin with Spectacular Bid in 1979.
Pace Makes This Race
by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host
ANALYSIS: The new Kentucky Derby qualifying system installed by
Churchill Downs for 2013 had connections and Derbyphiles concerned
with the potential effect; and yet the field assembled for the 139th edition
has the same familiar elements we’ve all evaluated for years. The most
important question to answer is how fast you expect the early fractions to
be with FALLING SKY and OXBOW the pacesetters and GOLDENCENTS,
VERRAZANO, VYJACK, GOVENOR CHARLIE and ITSMYLUCKYDAY
in pressing mode. If the opening three quarters go in 1:11.0 or more, there
is every chance for candidates in that group to succeed. If those 6 furlongs
go in 1:10.0 or less, expect the race’s quality stalkers and late runners – MY
LUTE, JAVA’S WAR, FRAC DADDY, REVOLUTIONARY, NORMANDY
INVASION and OVERANALYZE – to get their opportunity to win or
impact the pay slots. ORB can adjust to any pace scenario and is the race’s
most likely winner.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Bred and owned by the storied Phipps-Janney
clan and conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, ORB came
to hand over the Florida winter after breaking his maiden in his fourth
juvenile start. The only contender in the field with a trio of two-turn wins,
ORB enters the Derby on a four-race skein that featured rallies into fast,
medium and slow paces on a Gulfstream strip generally unkind to off-pace
runners. ORB will have the services of the game’s best rider in Joel Rosario.
If you ran this race 100 times, there are horses that would jump forward and
win, but ORB has the established experience, quality and style that would
win a majority of those runnings.
VALUE PLAYS: JAVA’S WAR, with the best classic-distance pedigree,
is the late runner most eligible for an exotics hit. Gary Stevens and D. Wayne
Lukas reunite with OXBOW, who has the running style of Winning Colors
and season arc of Thunder Gulch.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $1 Trifecta Key: ORB over OXBOW, JAVA’S WAR, GOLDENCENTS,
VERRAZANO, REVOLUTIONARY, NORMANDY INVASION,
OVERANALYZE, ITSMYLUCKYDAY, MYLUTE and
WILL TAKE CHARGE ($90)
• $2 Exacta Part-Wheel: OXBOW, JAVA’S WAR, GOLDENCENTS,
VERRAZANO and REVOLUTIONARY over ORB ($10)
PICKS
1. ORB
2. GOLDENCENTS
3. JAVA’S WAR
4. OXBOW
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 30
Stats & Trends:
Winning Derby Post Positions
(Since 1900)
Post Wins
Post Wins
1
12
11
3
2
9
12
3
3
8
13
4
4
11
14
2
5
12
15
3
6
6
16
4
7
8
17
0
8
10
18
1
9
4
19
1
10 10
20
2
Derby Records Before Winning Derby
Year
Trainer
Sts:1st-2nd-3rd
2000
Neil Drysdale
0: 0-0-0
2001
John Ward
2: 0-0-0
2002
Bob Baffert
11: 2-1-2
2003
Barclay Tagg
0: 0-0-0
2004
John Servis
0: 0-0-0
2005
John Shirreffs
0: 0-0-0
2006
Michael Matz
0: 0-0-0
2007
Carl Nafzger
2: 1-0-0
2008 Rick Dutrow
0: 0-0-0
2009
Chip Woolley
0: 0-0-0
2010
Todd Pletcher
24: 0-2-1
2011
Graham Motion
2: 0-0-0
2012
Doug O’Neill
2: 0-0-0
Know This:
Poly-Tri Players
Since 2007, every Kentucky Derby trifecta
except 2008 has included at least one
horse prepped most recently on a synthetic
surface. Street Sense and Animal
Kingdom provided wins after the surface
switch, while Dullahan, Hard Spun,
Pioneerof the Nile and Paddy O’Prado hit
the board.
OAKS & DERBY
COVERAGE
BEGINS AT
10 AM ET