1.1MB

Co-benefits and Low-Carbon
Societies in Asia: Is there a Role for
GHG Mitigation Technologies?
Yohji Uchiyama
Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems
University of Tsukuba
International
e a o a Workshop
o s op o
on a Co
Co-benefits
be e s Approach,
pp oac , Hayama,
aya a, Feb.13,
eb 3, 2012
0
1
Background
【International trend toward the development of low carbon society】
EU：advocate 60-80 % GHG reduction under the level of 1990 up to 2050
Japan：governmental vision to reduce GHG by 25 % under the level of 1990
up to 2020, supposing participation of major powers in GHG reduction targets
【Difficulty of international agreement】
No agreement of reduction targets
because of confliction among countries involved in COP,UNFCCC
COP UNFCCC
【Japanese situation】
●grappling with effective measures toward new vision
●serious consideration of Asian countries achieving
remarkable economic growth
●contributing to develop low carbon societies in Asia
by transfer of Japanese environmental technologies
【Situation of Newly industrializing economy
and developing countries】
●escaping from poverty
●solving local pollutions of
air, water and soil
●shortage of investment funds
【Japanese role】
【J
l 】
●To contribute sustainable development of Asian countries
●To transfer advanced environmental technologies to NIE and DCs by CDM projects
【Necessity of co-benefits study】
●Cooperative Win-win relationship between developed and developing countries?
●Could mitigating technologies be economically transferred？
●GHG reduction potential of mitigating technologies if co-benefit effect is included？
Outline of the Project
j
【Pre-research】
“Developing Integrated Evaluation Method for CO2 Mitigating
Technologies in Asia
Asia” (FY2007～2009)
【Objectives】
Estimating economical co-benefits to reduce both CO2 emission and air
pollutions,
ll ti
and
d clarifying
l if i technological
t h l i l potential
t ti l off mitigating
iti ti
technologies to achieve low carbon societies in Asia
【Methodologies】
g
Integrated Asian 3E (energy, environment and economic) Model which
combines global optimal energy analysis model (Asian GOAL model)
with life cycle analysis, environmental impact assessment and
pp
for various energy
gy chain systems
y
economic value added approach
●
●
●
●
【Results】
Environmental potentials to reduce air pollutions as well as CO2
emissions in Asian countries up
p to 2030
Economical effect of co-benefit obtained by mitigating technologies
【Policy Implication】
Supporting
Suppo
t g CDM
C
projects
p ojects in Asian
s a countries
cou t es
Providing for research materials to support the global worming policy
3
of IPCC since 2013
Promotion system of the project
Project
Advisory board
Sub-theme Sub-theme
1
2
University
of Tsukuba
AIST
Sub-theme
3
Sub-theme
4
AIST
AIST
4
Sub themes of the Project
Sub-themes
【【Sub-theme 1】
】 University of Tsukuba
LCA of mitigating energy systems for Asian countries
b using
by
i energy-chain
h i LCA model
d l and
d GIS d
database
t b
【Sub-theme ２】 AIST
S i l survey on perception
Social
ti for
f environmental
i
t l
burdens of mitigating technologies
【Sub theme ３】 AIST
【Sub-theme
Analysis of external cost including co-benefit effect
for mitigating technologies
【Sub-theme ４】AIST
Analysis of mitigating technology development in
5
Asian countries including co-benefit effect
Structure of the Project
(Period: FY2010-2012)
Estimating external cost
Long-Term Energy Demand
in Asian Countries
【 Subtheme 3: AIST 】
Economical Evaluation of
Mitigation Technologies
Including Co-benefit Effect
Post-Kyoto
（REDD, SCM）
Benefit Cost
Environmental
Credit
Environmental Economic Value
【Subtheme 2: AIST】
Social Survey on Perception
of Mitigation Technologies
Co-benefit
8
800
7
700
6
600
5
500
4
400
3
300
2
200
1
100
00
Capacity
( GW)
設備量 (億
億kW)
Energy and Environmental Policy,
Statistical Database
in Asian Countries
【 Subtheme 4: AIST 】
Analysis of Mitigation Technologies
Development in Asian Countries
Considering Co-benefits
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Mi i i TTechnologies
Mitigation
h l i
Air Pollutant Emission
CO2 Emission
CO2 Credit
【Subtheme1: Univ. Tsukuba】
EEvaluation
al ation of Energy Technology Options by
Energy Chain LCA and GIS
CDM
CO2
Mitigation
Energy technology options
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emission reduction
Contribution
C
t ib ti to
t Policy
P li Judgment
J d
t
for Technology Transfer and
6
Establishing Low-carbon Society
【Sub-theme1】 LCA of mitigating energy systems for Asian
countries by using energy-chain LCA model and GIS database
Output for
sub-theme 2 and 4
Evaluation of efficiency, environmental
burdens and costs of technologies
LCA for production and
O&M of each process
1200
Overall Efficiency
（unit factor）
R materials
Raw
t i l extr.
t
既存石炭
1000
C
Conversion
i
T
Transportation
t ti
Utili ation
Utilization
Energy-chain
Accumulative CO2 emissions
（unit factor）
Raw materials extr.
Outputs off CO2 emissions
O
i i
ffor
processes (example)
積算CO2排出原単位[g-CO2/kW
Wh]
（Investigation,
Data collection)
Conversion
Transportation
Utilization
Total costs
（unit factor）
Raw materials extr. Conversion
Transportation Utilization
Evaluation of advanced fossil fuel power and
renewable technologies with GIS database
800
USC
600
NGCCローリー
NGCCタンカー
400
NGCCパイプライン
200
0
設備
燃料採掘
燃料輸送
運用
廃棄物処理
Local environmental burdens from
GIS analysis(CO2,SOx,NOx, etc.)
662
575
311
● China
（advanced thermal power+CCS,
Biomass, solar, wind）
● India
（advanced thermal power+CCS）
● Kazakhstan
（wind, hydropower）
283
230
842
207
757
512
434
602
484
412
517
IGCC
274
NGCC
247
197
IGCC
USC
遼寧省
175
USC
NGCC
ウイグル自治区
IGCC
USC
山西省
NGCC
614
524
248
677
165
592
346
269
IGCC
219
140
319
246
USC
重慶市
IGCC
646
NGCC
556
280
197
IGCC
251
172
USC
広東省
NGCC
1000
0
2005
2025
USC
上海市
NGCC
Optimization Analysis of Coal Transportation
~Effect of introducing of advanced coal-fired technology~
Amount of coal from each region to Guangdong (a) and from Shanxi
to each region (b) by the transportation cost minimization
内モンゴル
Inner
Mongolia
内モンゴル
Inner
Mongolia
Hebei
河北省
河北省
Hebei
Tianjin
天津市
Shanxi
山西省
山西省
Shanxi
陝西省
Shaanxi
Shandong
山東省
陝西省
Shaanxi
Henan
河南省
江蘇省
Jiangsu
Jiangs
河南省
Henan
Waterways
Waterways
湖南省
Hunan
Guizhou
貴州省
30
million ton
Jiangxi
江西省
上海市
Shanghai
浙江省
Zhejiang
75
million ton
福建省
Fujian
Railways
Highways
Fujian
福建省
Yunnan
雲南省
広西省
Guangxi
Guangdong
広東省
Railways
Highways
 In the USC replacement
case, the amount of coal
transported from the
northern part by the
coastal transportation
decreases.
Guangdong
広東省
(a) to Guangdong
(b) from Shanxi
Total
T
t l annuall amountt off CO2 emission
i i ffor coall ttransportation
t ti ffrom
the entire China with and without the USC replacement.
Annual CO2 emission (Mt-C
CO2)
200
Waterways
180
Railways
160
Highways
140
120


100
80
60

40
20
0
Cost minimized
(Conv. Coal)
Cost minimized
(USC)
41.7% of the CO2 emission is reduced.
The reduction ratio of the coastal
transportation and the road transportation
are large, and both become about half.
CO2 emission
i i ffrom th
the railway
il
ttransportation
t ti
is not reduced.
【Sub-theme2】 Study on environmental awareness for
mitigation technology
Goal: For the total evaluation of benefit caused by mitigation projects such as
CDM including, identify the unit economical value of co-benefits.
Social survey to estimate WTP (Willingness to pay) for
avoiding damages on health by air pollutants
• FY2010: Social survey was performed in the central part of Beijing. Urban Area
• FY2011: Survey in rural parts in Shanxi is now in going on. Rural Area
Survey Method(Beijing)
Method: Face to face survey
Sampling：Multi-stage systematic sampling
Number of respondents： 700
WTP to avoiding damage on health by air pollutants:
Ask willingness
g
to buy
y
Nebulizer + Medication at current price
for the decrease of mortality rate by 0.05%/year for ten years
(Subjects were shown the probability of survival rate on after ten
years for each age and gender with/without Nebulizer and
Medication sets.)
A scene of survey
Results from the survey in Beijing
Data
D
t is
i analyzed
l
d by
b fitting
fitti
log-logistic models
•
F x  
1
a
c z  b log x
1  e i i ij
Median value of WTP for the decrease
of mortality rate by 0.05%/year for
ten years: 1,300 RMB
F(x)：Ratio
F(
) R ti off persons who
h b
buy a
nebulizer at price x
ci: Coefficient for independent variable
ziｊ: Value of the Attribute i for data jj
N
Now
evaluating
l ti th
the value
l off RMD/DALY
Effects of Respondents’ Attributes
• Household Income: High WTP by High
income Household
• Academic Background: High WTP by
person graduated from university
• Exercise: High WTP by persons who
has habit of exercise
•
•
•
Smoking habit: Not
significant
Age: Not significant
Gender: Not significant
Di t ib ti
Distribution
off H
Household
h ld Annual
A
l Income
I
Examples of Fitting Log-logistic Models
AIC
a
b
Income Class
Education (University or higher)
Smoking Habit
non-Exercise
Age 30-39
Age 40-49
Age 50-59
Gender(female)
The figures in parentheses are the t values.
2,537.5
2,474.6
-5.80 ( -19.7 ) -7.48 ( -17.9
0.95
( 28.9 ) 1.02
( 28.6
-0.28 ( -4.9 ) -0.22 ( -3.7
-0.36 ( -2.4
0.11
( 0.7
1 26
1.26
( 8.1
81
-0.03 ( -0.2
0.15
( 0.7
0.23
( 1.0
0.19
( 1.1
2,468.0
) -7.22 ( -20.3
) 1.01
( 28.6
) -0.22 ( -3.7
) -0.41 ( -2.9
)
) 1.26
1 26
( 8.1
81
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
Technological and economical assessment of mitigation
technologies in new offset mechanism
【Sub-theme3】
Goal: Extending environmental impact assessments with co-benefit within whole Asian region
① Role of sub3 is to connect sub1&2 for detailed investigation in present day of China and sub4 for
whole Asian region until 2050.
② Applications and modifications of a Japanese LCIA method (named LIME) are investigated for
valuing co-benefits in Asian region
region.
③ To develop methods for the valuation as well as social survey, to provide quick response to civil
services, compensating rigorous statistical study in sub2.
On going work
(corresponding to the
main goals above)
[1] modification of LIME:
・revisions of DoseR
Response
relations
l ti
based on latest
scientific knowledge
for energy related
i
impacts
t
・carrying out social
survey in several Asian
countries to measure
M
Marginal
i l Willi
Willingness
To Pay (MWTP)
[2] application of LIME: to
provide methods to
other
th sub
b themes
th
to
t
adopt LIME of status
quo to future Asian
regions
Methods and preliminary results
Modification of LIME: measure MWTP via internet social surveys
Significance of this study
・Very few studies simultaneous social survey covering
wide area in foreign countries, which come to face
technical barriers.
・Very
V
few
f
studies
di for
f b
benefit
fi transfer
f in
i Japan
J
Carrying out social survey- easier said than done 1. improvement of questionnaires
- presenting
ti “l
“levell off payment”
t”
- Numbers of choices, attributions, …
- Easy to understand …
2. Survey cities
- finished;
fi i h d Singapore,
Si
Jakarta
J k t
- On going; Bangkok, Shanghai, HCMC
Preliminary results
All the attributions (i.e., payment and the four safeguard
subjects) are significance level of 1%, except loss of
plants in Singapore (10%).
We could successfully demonstrated that MWTP could be
obtained
b i d ffrom only
l some 100 samples
l via
i iinternet survey.
Singapore (S$)
Jakarta (1000Rp)
227.5
1504.0
Loss of natural resources
65.1
475.5
Loss of animal species
66.2
531.8
Loss of plants
55.5
809.0
Loss of human health
【 Sub‐theme4】Analysis of mitigation technologies development in Asian countries
considering co-benefits
Goal:
G
l T
To evaluate
l t th
the enhancing
h
i effect
ff t off co-benefits
b
fit in
i technology
t h l
ttransfer
f b
by a llongterm top-down modeling, based on bottom-up data supplied by sub-theme 1, 2 & 3
Optimal Generation
Planning Model
 Six major power grids
in China
 Time span 20062026
Sub-theme１
Mitigation
Technologies
g
• Advanced
Thermal Power +
CCS
• Renewable
Technological & Energy
environmental performance
Willingness To
Pay ・SO
SOx ・NO
NOx
・PM
・CO2
Evaluation of environmental co benefit
co‐benefit Potential enhancement of mitigation technologies development by considering co‐benefits
■Objective
j
function for baseline[Profit
[
of power
p
suppliers］
pp
］
OBJBL= t(1+d)‐(t‐2006)g(Ig,t‐Kg,t‐OMg,t‐Fg,t) Ig,t=Sales of electricity，Kg,t= Capital cost，OMg,t= O&M cost，Fg,t= Fuel cost，g=Grid，t=Time，d= Discount rate
Sub-theme２
Sub
theme２
Sub-theme３
Output of
Sub-theme 4
Enhanced development by considering co‐benefits ■Objective function for the potential of current CDM
[Profit of power suppliers＋Sales of CER］
OBJCDM= OBJBL + t(1+d)‐(t‐2006)gCg,t
Capacity development
y
by current CDM
Cg,t= Sales of CER（Carbon price× CER）
■ Objective function for the potential of CDM considering Obj ti f ti f th
t ti l f CDM
id i
environmental co‐benefit
[Profit of power suppliers＋Sales of CER + Co-benefits］
OBJCB= OBJCDM + t(1+d)‐(t‐2006)k,tbk,t*Dek,t
k= Air pollutants（SOx, Nox, CO2, PM）
bk= Value of co‐benefits per ton of pollutant emission
Dek= Emission reduction of pollutants below baseline attributed to CDM
Today
Around 2030
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Preliminary analysis of enhanced performance of CDM considering co‐benefits, assuming temporal values of co‐benefit of SOx and NOx emission reduction
Potential Capacity Development
(GW)
Emissions of SOx and NOx
Y
Year
2011
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(million ton per year）
12
10
8
Current
CDM
CDM with
co-benefit
Current
CDM
East Grid
USC
(GW)
CDM with
co-benefit
Southern Grid
IGCC
6
4
2
0
Year 2016
2006
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2011
2016
2021
2026
Annual Nox Emission（Base Line）
Annual Nox Emission（current CDM）
Annual Nox Emission（CDM with co-benefits）
Current
CDM
CDM with
co-benefit
East Grid
Current
CDM
CDM with
co-benefit
Southern Grid
Annual SOx Emission（Baseline）
Annual SOx Emission（current CDM）
Annual SOx Emission（CDM with co-benefits）
USC
IGCC
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Overview on co-benefits from key lowcarbon technology viewpoints (1)
What is a sustainable technology?
gy
・Technologies and systems to contribute the development
of a sustainable society
What are promising CO2 mitigation options?
・ High
g efficient technologies
g
and energy
gy improvement
p
of
utilization systems in both energy demand and supply
sides
・ High efficient transportation technologies and clean
energy vehicles
・ New
N
technologies
h l i to shift
hif ffuels
l ffrom coall or oilil to naturall
gas or renewable energy
・ CCS system
t
15
・ Nuclear power plant
Overview on co-benefits from key lowcarbon technology viewpoints (2)
Which electric power technologies would contribute economically
to reduce CO2 emission?
・ Advanced coal fired power plants such as USC and IGCC
・ Natural
N t l gas combined
bi d cycle
l
・ Transport shift from truck and ship to railroad
・ Coal
Coal-fired
fired power plant with CCS system
・ Hydro, wind, biomass and PV
What are barriers to install mitigating
g
g technologies
g
for CDM
projects?
・
・
・
・
High economic growth and rapid technological progress in Asian countries
Increase in level of baseline for CDM project
Difficulty to understand and estimate external costs of global warming
Heavy decline in carbon credit as well as less external costs of carbon
emission than those of environmental pollutants
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Key messages on Role for
GHG Mitigation Technologies
● Advanced coal technologies such as USC and
IGCC as well as fuel switch from coal to natural
gas are promising to mitigate GHG
p
of infrastructure on fuel transport
p
● Improvement
and electric grid network is indispensable to
promote GHG mitigation technologies
● CO2 reduction costs of renewable energy are
higher than those of advanced fossil-fired
fossil fired power
technologies
● Reversed situation of co-benefits between CDM
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project and pollution control project
Thank you for your kind attention!
Acknowledgment
This research is supported by the Environment
Research and Technology Development Fund
(E-1001) of the Ministry of the Environment,
Japan.
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