North Sea Weather Report 2015/16

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Marine
North Sea weather analysis – October 2015-February 2016
The late autumn and winter of 2015/16 was a
relatively average season. Both monthly mean
wind speeds and wave heights were close to or
slightly above the long-term averages, whilst
the majority of monthly maximums were below
the long-term maximum. This period saw the
introduction of the naming of significant storm
events, a joint project between the Met Office
and Met Éireann, the Irish Met Service. Between
November and February, nine named storms
occurred, which is not an unusual number of
events for the time of year. Storm Gertrude, at
the end of January, produced the largest wind
speeds and wave heights of these nine storms.
A COMPARISON WITH LONGTERM AVERAGES
Met Office model data, extending from 1980 to the
present day, has been analysed to compare the wind and
wave heights for the period October 2015 to February
2016, against the 1980-2014 long-term statistics.
The analysis has been undertaken at four locations
representing the West of Shetland, Northern, Central and
Southern North Sea (shown in figure 1).
For each location we compare the 2015/2016 monthly
mean and maximum waves and winds against the longterm values (Figures 2 and 3). The mean values are shown
by the line graphs and the maximum values by the bar
graphs.
The data tells us that across all locations monthly
averages of wave heights and wind speeds were very
close to the long-term averages. The exceptions are
for November and December for the West of Shetland
and Northern North Sea, where wave heights were up
to a meter above the long-term average. For example,
in December in the Northern North Sea the average
monthly wave height was 4.6m, compared against a
long term average of 3.5m. Monthly maximums were all
below the long-term maximums, with the exception of
January where a new maximum significant wave height
and mean wind speed in the Northern North Sea were
generated in the model. A new maximum mean wind
speed also occurred West of Shetland.
Figure 1 location of analyses
Figure 2 Analyses of wave heights
STORM GERTRUDE
On 29 January, storm Gertrude brought gusts of 60 to
70 knots or more to exposed coastal locations in the
northern half of the UK. The far north and west bore
the brunt of this storm with 79 knots at South Uist and
91 knots at Lerwick. This produced the biggest January
significant wave height for the West of Shetland (12.9m)
and the Northern North Sea locations (11.9m). Figure
4 shows a map of significant wave height at its peak of
the event. Interrogation of measured datasets in the
Northern North Sea region reveal that waves of up to
14m (hs) were measured.
Outside of January, and since 1980, six bigger significant
wave heights occurred in the model data West of
Shetland and three bigger events in the Northern North
Sea.
Figure 4 Significant wave heights during storm Gertrude
Figure 3 Analyses of wind Speeds
A more in-depth look at the long-term trends (Figures
5 and 6) reveal that the region is currently experiencing
a high frequency of stormy winters. Five of the last six
winters (December - February) have had higher average
and maximum significant wave heights than much of late
90’s and 2000’s, and bare resemblance to a noticeably
stormier period that occurred in the late 1980’s and early
1990’s.
Figure 5 December – February mean significant wave heights 1980-2015
Figure 6 December – February maximum significant wave heights 1980-2015