Demography and Social Trends

Transcription

Topic Paper 1
Demography and Social Trends
Version 1.0
Introduction
This topic paper is one of a series, prepared by the Council, to support
preparation of its Local Development Framework (LDF). The topic papers in
the series comprise:
1. Demography and Social Trends
2. Policy Context
3. The Natural Environment
4. The Built Environment
5. The Economy
6. Tourism
7. Retail
8. Housing
9. Leisure and Open Space
10. Water
The purpose of the papers is to provide all parties who may wish to participate
within the Local Development process access to the same baseline
information that the Council intends to use in the preparation of its
Development Plan Documents and Supplementary Planning Documents.
They provide a digest, rather than a substitution, for fuller information obtained
from other sources. Other topic papers may be added over time.
Should you have any questions relating to the content of these papers, please
contact [email protected].
This topic paper covers a whole range of statistics to give a definitive picture
of the borough as it stands, ranging from forecasted population growth,
expected housing to be built in the next fifteen years through to existing
problems of deprivation and health issues. Statistics within the paper come
from many different sources as much research has already been done, these
are listed below.
•
•
The Census 2001 – produced by the Office of National Statistics
(ONS). Census day was April 29th 2001. All ONS material is covered by
Crown Copyright, however the Council is allowed to disseminate the
data.
East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009 – produced by
East Kent councils
•
SEP Nov 08 KCC Projections – produced Kent County Council
Analysis and Information Team
•
Swale NHS Health Profile 2008 – produced NHS
1
•
Kent County Council Community Infrastructure Provision
•
Swale Learning Strategy 2008
•
Indices of Multiple Deprivation Ranking 2007 – produced Communities
and Local Government (CLG)
•
Benefit Data 2008 – produced Department of Work and Pensions
This paper aims to pull together all of the data to give a full analysis of the
borough.
2
1.0 Population
1.1.1 The total population of Swale is 130, 300 (mid 2007 population estimate)
making Swale the third most populated area in Kent behind Canterbury
(148,000) and Maidstone (144,000).
1.1.2 The total population figure of 130,3001 can be broken down into
demographic groups
Adult Females (18-59)
Adult Males (18-64)
Children (0-15)
Older Adults (60+ F/65+M)
35,600
40,000
26,500
24,600
1.1.3 The population of Swale has increased rapidly in the last few years and
is the third fastest growing district in the county. Table 1.1.4 below shows the
population growth of Swale in comparison to Kent since 2002.
Table 1.1.4 Population Growth Since 2002
Population
Kent
Swale
% growth
Swale
2002
1,589,700
124,400
2003
2004
1,600,600
1,613,000
125,800
126,800
5yr Change
2005
2006
2007
1,624,900
1,634,600
1,646,900
127,600
128,500
130,300
2006-2007 Change
Number
Percentage
Number
Percentage
5,800
4.7%
1,700
1.3%
Source: SEP Nov 08 Projections Kent County Council Analysis and Information Team
1.1.5 Swale’s population has increased by 4.7% over the last five years well
above the regional average of 3.6%. Swale has had a steady increase in
population year on year and it is anticipated due to increased housing
provision that this trend will continue.
1.1.6 Births, deaths and migration (the net effect of people moving into and
out of an area) can influence population change. Table 1.1.7 shows the net
migration into and out of Swale broken down by age group. The result show
that a large proportion of in migrants are in the age groups 0-15 and 25-44,
this indicates family groups are moving into the area.
1
Source: Population Estimates Unit, ONS
3
Table 1.1.7 Net Migration (In and Out of the Borough)
Source: East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment Statistical Supplement
1.1.8 Swale’s increase in population can clearly be demonstrated to be the
cause of inward migration rather than by natural change (i.e. the difference
between births and deaths). Table 1.1.9 shows that the Net Change through
natural change remains stable with a small fluctuation of around 100
residents, this demonstrates that natural change has had little effect on the
population increase.
Table 1.1.9 Net Change
Year
Births
2004
1,493
2005
1,498
2006
1,588
2007
1,632
Source: Office for National Statistics
Deaths
1,205
1,139
1,225
1,237
Net Change
288
359
363
395
1.1.10 Natural change remains fairly consistent with a modest increase; this is
expected given the increase in total population. Births, deaths and mortality
rates for the borough will be discussed at length later on.
1.1.11 The breakdown of the borough’s existing population by parish is shown
in the table over the page. This shows there has been a 5% reduction in the
population of Doddington and a reduction of 4.6% in Graveney and
Goodnestone parishes in the period 2006-2007. There has by contrast been a
population increase of 10% at the village of Iwade, a 5% increase at Lynsted
with Kingsdown and a 4.9% increase in Selling.
4
Table 1.1.12 Population at Parish Level
5
1.2 Population Projections
1.2.1 In November 2008 Kent County Council produced population forecasts
based on the South-East Plan Strategy. The data provides a useful
comparison between Swale, Kent and North Kent (North Kent includes local
authority districts of Dartford, Gravesham, Swale and Medway), in terms of
expected population growth. Table 1.2.2 shows projections up to 2026, which
is the period covered by the South East Plan.
Table 1.2.2: November 2008 based Population Projections
Total Population
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Swale
128,500
131,400
133,900
136,800
140,400
Kent
1,634,600 1,690,500 1,733,200 1,778,800 1,830,800
North Kent
567,600
587,300
602,800
620,300
640,800
This results in the following % changes in population over the same time
period.
Table 1.2.3 Population Forecasted Change in Number and Percentage
Change
2006 to 11
2006 to 16
2006 to 21
2006 to 26
no.
no.
no.
no.
%
%
%
%
Swale
2,800 2.2
5,300 4.2
8,300 6.5
11,900
9.3
Kent
55,900 3.4
98,600 6.0
144,200 8.8
196,200 12.0
North Kent (1)
19,700 3.5
35,200 6.2
52,700 9.3
73,200 12.9
1.2.4 This shows the borough’s forecasted population increase as slightly
below that of the regional and county average. In comparison Swale has had
an average growth of 4.7% in the previous 5 years and if this trend were to
continue the projected figures would be below the actual growth experienced.
However even if growth rates fall to the 2.2% (till 2011) and 4.2% (till 2016)
predicted the projected figures for population growth are still significant.
Table 1.2.5 Population Projection for Swale by Age Group
2006
Population Projection for Swale by Age Group
2011
2016
2021
2026
Age Group
0-15
26200
26000
26100
26600
26500
16-24
14100
14000
13400
12500
13300
25-44
34900
32700
30700
30600
31000
45-64
33400
35800
36600
37400
36900
65-84
17600
20100
23700
25600
27500
85+
2300
2700
3400
4100
5200
1.2.6 When the populations forecast are broken down into broad age groups it
becomes apparent that Swale will face a significant increase in residents aged
44-65 and 65-84. This ageing population is likely to require specific housing
6
needs such as sheltered accommodation, flats and ‘homes for life’ and is also
likely to have an impact on health care and other service provision within the
borough. The number of residents over the age of 85 will increase by over a
hundred percent which may lead to an increased demand for assisted
living/care home provision and cemetery or burial space.
Table 1.2.7 Population Forecast by Age Groups % Change
2006 to 11
no.
-200
-100
-2,200
2,400
2,500
Swale Population Forecast by Age Groups % Change
2006 to 16
2006 to 21
2006 to 26
%
no.
%
no.
no.
%
%
-0.6
-100
-0.3
400
1.7
300
1.1
-0.8
-700
-5.0
-1,600
-11.2
-800
-5.9
-6.3
-4,100
-11.8
-4,300
-12.3
-3,900
-11.1
7.1
3,200
9.5
4,000
12.0
3,500
10.5
14.3
6,000
34.3
8,000
45.2
9,900
56.3
0-15
16-24
25-44
45-64
65-84
85 and
over
400
17.2
1,000
44.3
1,800
75.6
2,900
124.1
1.3. Migration Forecasts
1.3.1 As part of the South East Plan Strategy figures of predicted population
migration into the borough have been produced.
Table 1.3.2 Net Migration
Swale
Kent
Net Migration Households
Net Migration Persons
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2006
2011
2016
2021
n/a
600
600
1,000
1,400
n/a
400
400
1,300
n/a
12,700
8,000
10,400
14,600
n/a
27,700
15,000
21,500
1.3.3 This gives Swale an increase of population via migration of 400 persons
over the periods 2006-2011 and 2011-2016. There is then a sharp increase of
population migration with 1,300 person predicted for 2021 (1% of the total
projected population) and 2,600 in 2026, an increase to 1.9% of the total
anticipated population.
1.4 Population Densities
1.4.1 Swale has a total area of 37,340 hectares and the increase in population
predicted will inevitably increase density of people living within the borough.
Table 1.4.2 Population and Density Increase
Population
Density
2001
122,801
3.29
2007
130,300
3.49
7
2026
2,600
32,500
2.0 People, places and families
2.1.1 Swale is like many other South East boroughs and has a significant mix
of household types ranging from married couples, families, lone parents and
single older persons. The household composition at the time of the 2001
Census is shown below.
Table 2.1.2 Household Composition in 2001
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2.1.3 As expected with Swale’s ageing population and increased residents
over 65 there has been a rise in one person households from 13,000
households in 2001 to 15,000 households in 2006.
2.1.4 Numbers of lone parent households have remained stable with an
increase of only 500 households between 2001 and 2006. Looking at the total
8
number of households within Swale this is a relatively small increase. The
number of married couple households remained at 25,400 up to 2006.
2.2 Martial Status
2.2.1 Swale has 54,276 residents married, that’s 41% of the population and
40% are single residents.
Table 2.2.2 Martial Status
Swale South East
130,300 8,000,645
52,261 3,412,654
43,082 2,865,138
8,543
532,570
1
All People (Persons)
1
Single (never married) (Persons)
1
Married (first marriage) (Persons)
1
Re-married (Persons)
Separated (but still legally married)
(Persons)1
Divorced (Persons)1
1
Widowed (Persons)
England
49,138,831
21,763,102
17,069,491
2,885,186
2,651
146,765
8,511
7,753
525,459 3,219,984
518,059 3,259,157
.
%
%
&!
941,911
! .!
%
2.2.3 Along with population forecasts Kent County Council have produced
forecasts on the make up of future households. These are shown in the tables
below and have been separated into the various household compositions.
Table 2.2.4 Total Number of forecast households 2006 - 2026
Households
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Swale
53,100
55,800
58,400
61,100
63,800
Kent
684,300 718,600 752,900 787,200 821,400
North Kent
234,900 248,100 261,400 274,600 287,800
Table 2.2.5 Household growth in number and percent
Change
2006 to 11
no.
2,700
34,300
%
5.0
5.0
2006 to 16
no.
5,300
68,500
%
10.1
10.0
2006 to 21
no.
%
8,000 15.1
102,800 15.0
2006 to 26
no.
%
10,700 20.1
137,100 20.0
Swale
Kent
North
Kent
13,200 5.6
26,500 11.3
39,700 16.9
53,000
22.5
Table 2.2.6 Household Forecast of Married Couples
Swale
Kent
North
Kent
2001
25,400
327,900
2006
25,400
322,300
Married Couple
2011
2016
24,900
24,700
316,300 312,200
2021
24,600
310,100
2026
24,500
308,300
112,200
109,300
107,200
105,800
106,000
106,000
9
Change
2006 to
11
no.
2006 to
16
no.
%
%
2006 to 21
no.
%
2006 to 26
no.
%
-2.7043
-800 3.13336
-900
Kent
-6,000
-1.851
-10000 3.10931 12200 3.77399 13900
North
Kent
-2,100 1.90795
-3300 3.00552 -3500 3.20583 -3400
Swale
-500
-1.8068
-700
-3.6451
4.31704
3.08327
2.2.8 Whilst the numbers of married households remains relatively stable
around 25,000, Swale clearly follows the regional and county trend of a fall in
the percentage of the total population which is married.
Table 2.2.9 Household Forecast of Cohabiting Couples
2001
5,300
60,800
2006
6,400
73,600
Cohabiting Couple
2011
2016
2021
7,400
8,000
8,500
86,500 95,800
103,500
2026
Swale
9,000
Kent
110,900
North
Kent
39,200
41,900
23,000 27,600 32,600 36,300
2006 to 11
no.
1,000
12,800
%
15.3
17.4
Change
2006 to 16
no.
%
1,600 25.3
22,200 30.1
2006 to 21
no.
%
2,100 33.3
29,900 40.6
2006 to 26
no.
%
2,700 41.8
37,200 50.6
Swale
Kent
North
Kent
5,000 18.1
8,700 31.5
11,600 42.0
14,300
51.9
2.2.11 There is a marked increase expected in the number of co-habiting
couples, this includes those with children, with an increase of 41.8% between
2006 and 2026. This is likely to have an impact on the types of dwellings to be
provided up to 2026, requiring a mix of bedroom numbers and styles to house
couples and those with co-habiting children. Again Swale follows the regional
trend in increased co-habiting couples.
Table 2.2.12 Household Forecast for Lone Parents
Swale
2001
3,300
2006
3,800
Lone Parent
2011
2016
3,900
3,900
2021
3,800
2026
3,800
10
Kent
42,000
48,400
49,900
50,300
50,200
50,900
North Kent
15,700
18,000
18,600
18,900
19,100
19,600
Change
2006 to 11
2006 to 16
2006 to 21
2006 to 26
no.
%
no.
%
no.
%
no.
%
Swale
100 2.0
100 2.0
0 0.4
0
0.2
Kent
1,500 3.0
1,900 3.9
1,800 3.8
2,500
5.2
North Kent
600 3.3
900 5.0
1,100 6.1
1,600
9.1
2.2.14 The population of Swale, who are lone parents, looks set to remain
stable at just under four thousand. This stability in the population can be seen
in the 0.2% increase between 2006 and 2026 anticipated. This stability bucks
the regional and county trend which see significant increases in lone parents.
2.2.15 The large increase in the North Kent region is a result of a forecast
increase in Dartford and Gravesham, which expect an increase in lone
parents of 54% and 16% respectively.
2.2.16 As Swale’s lone parent population looks unlikely to increase
significantly it is expected that new housing would not be taken up by this
group to any great extent and housing proposals should not be aimed
specifically at this demographic group.
2.2.17 In 2001 as part of the census data, 1,507 lone parents did not live full
time with their dependant children
Table 2.2.18 Household Forecast for One Person Households
One Person
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Swale
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,200
21,400
23,600
Kent
181,300 203,300 227,800 254,700 281,800 308,800
North Kent
60,100
67,900
77,000
86,800
96,500 105,900
2006 to 11
no.
2,000
24,500
%
13.3
12.0
Change
2006 to 16
no.
%
4,200 27.8
51,400 25.3
2006 to 21
no.
%
6,400 42.6
78,500 38.6
2006 to 26
no.
%
8,600 57.2
105,500 51.9
Swale
Kent
North
Kent
9,100 13.4
18,900 27.9
28,600 42.2
38,000
56.0
11
2.2.20 One person households are the group which increases most
significantly in Swale which tallies with the population forecasts of an ageing
population and less people getting married or co-habiting. Between 2006 and
2026 there is a significant rise in the number of people over 65 (56.3%
growth) and in the 85+ (124.1% growth) age bracket this will inevitably
increase the number of one person households as people are widow/widower
but due to increased health levels and life spans wish to remain living on their
own.
2.2.21 The ageing population is also more likely to have a one person
household as part of sheltered housing, warden or self-contained flats. There
is limited amount of such accommodation within the borough at present and
demand is likely to increase.
12
3.0 Households
3.1.1 This section will look at what type of accommodation is within the
borough as well as forecasts for the number of dwellings required by 2026
and how many it is anticipated will be built.
3.1.2 The table below shows the break down of accommodation types within
the borough. It shows the two most common types of housing within Swale
are semi-detached houses/bungalows and terraced properties.
3.1.3 33.25% of dwellings are semi-detached and 32.92% of dwellings
terraced. The figures show that at 2004 only 6.79% of dwellings were purpose
built flats or maisonettes; however in 2007/2008 29% of the properties built in
that year were flats/maisonettes. Therefore an increase in the percentage of
dwelling stock of flats/maisonettes is expected between now and 2026.
Table 3.1.4 Dwelling type in Swale 2001
Swale
All household spaces: With residents (Household
1
Spaces)
All household spaces: With no residents: Vacant
1
(Household Spaces)
All household spaces: With no residents: Second
residence / holiday accommodation (Household
1
Spaces)
Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow:
Detached (Household Spaces)1
Detached (Household Spaces)1
Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: Semi1
detached (Household Spaces)
Accommodation type: Whole house or bungalow: Semidetached (Household Spaces)1
Terraced (including end terrace) (Household Spaces)1
1
Terraced (including end terrace) (Household Spaces)
Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment:
Purpose Built block of flats or tenement (Household
Spaces)1
Purpose Built block of flats or tenement (Household
Spaces)1
Part of a converted or shared house (including bed-sits)
1
(Household Spaces)
Part of a converted or shared house (including bed-sits)
(Household Spaces)1
Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: In
1
commercial building (Household Spaces)
Accommodation type: Flat; maisonette or apartment: In
South
East
England
Count 49,257 3,287,489 20,451,427
Count 1,677
91,301
676,196
Count
23,030
135,202
382
Count 11,821
% 23.04
Count 17,061
% 33.25
Count 16,894
% 32.92
Count 3,485
%
996,140 4,786,456
29.28
22.51
967,850 6,713,183
28.45
31.57
786,473 5,494,033
23.12
25.84
442,992 2,967,790
6.79
13.02
13.96
Count 1,294
144,880
968,266
%
2.52
4.26
4.55
Count
469
39,854
244,179
%
0.91
1.17
1.15
13
1
commercial building (Household Spaces)
Accommodation type: Caravan or other mobile or
1
temporary structure (Household Spaces)
Accommodation type: Caravan or other mobile or
temporary structure (Household Spaces)1
Count
292
23,631
88,918
%
0.57
0.69
0.42
-! / !
.
%
%
& 0 "+
&!
! .!
%
3.1.5 Table 3.1.4 also shows that Swale is behind the South East and
England in its percentage of dwellings which are flats (purpose built and
conversions). Although given the slight increase in recent years this may
come in line with the rest of the country soon.
Table 3.1.6 Average household size
Average Household Size
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Swale
2.38
2.31
2.25
2.19
2.15
Kent
2.34
2.31
2.26
2.21
2.18
North Kent
2.38
2.33
2.27
2.23
2.19
3.1.6 The forecast show that Swale is likely to have a decrease in household
size, this tallies with the expected increase in single people and one person
households made up of elderly residents which will decrease the density of
residents per dwelling.
3.1.7 Swale also has data on the council tax band for dwellings within the
borough. These are in the table below.
Table 3.1.8 Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band
South
England
East
Count 56,883 3,565,119 22,289,256
Swale
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Total (Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band A
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band A
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band B
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band B
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band C
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band C
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band D
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band D
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band E
(Dwellings)1
Count 9,549
% 16.79
Count 14,102
% 24.79
Count 15,800
% 27.78
Count 9,192
% 16.16
Count 4,800
312,133 5,608,566
8.76
25.16
587,339 4,314,757
16.47
19.36
920,285 4,825,402
25.81
21.65
715,565 3,393,630
20.07
15.23
477,934 2,112,189
14
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band E
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band F
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band F
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band G
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band G
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band H
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band H
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band I
(Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band I
1
(Dwellings)
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band X;
Unallocated (Dwellings)1
Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band; Band X;
1
Unallocated (Dwellings)
%
8.44
Count 2,191
%
13.41
288,571 1,116,768
3.85
8.09
5.01
Count 1,133
231,390
793,269
%
1.99
6.49
3.56
Count
116
31,902
124,667
%
0.20
0.89
0.56
Count
0
0
8
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
Count
0
0
0
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
-! / !
.
9.48
% * ""
!
1
! !#
- %! 2 0
"
3.1.9 Swale has below the national average of dwellings in Band A, however it
has almost double the percentage of the South East. The borough has over
10% more of band B dwellings than the South East average of 16.47%. Swale
also has below the South East average in the higher bands such as E, F, G.
This high percentage of A and B bands and low percentage of higher bands
indicates that the borough has deprived areas and poor housing stock
compared to the South East as a whole.
3.2 Household tenure
3.2.1 Swale has a mix of dwelling tenures such as private, rented and
registered social landlord properties. Fourteen percent of the borough’s
housing is registered social landlord stock, this is much higher than the South
East average of 8.7% again this indicates that the borough has areas of
deprivation and residents on low incomes. 8% of the dwelling stock is privately
rented and 77.88% is owner occupied, this is significantly higher than the
England average of 69% of people owning their own home. This significant
difference between private ownership and large amounts of RSL households
including those on the waiting list indicates Swale, like many other Kent
boroughs has a significant divergence between affluent areas and pockets of
deprivation.
3.2.2. The borough has no dwelling stock owned by Swale Borough Council or
any other public sector stock. There are currently 4,432 households on the
local authority register and 3,352 households on the waiting list. Those
households on the waiting list predominately want smaller dwellings, with 43%
15
wanting a 1 bed and 32% wanting a two bed dwelling. Future housing
provision will need to be guided by whichever current Strategic Housing
Market Assessment is in place. There is a far larger supply of smaller homes
becoming available for reletting and thus a much greater likelihood of smaller
household'
s housing needs being met faster than those of larger households.
Although there are fewer larger households on the waiting lists, the current
supply of larger affordable homes is negligible.
3.2.3 There is currently 6.2% of the dwelling stock classified as unfit and 0.8%
vacant dwellings.
Table 3.2.4 Dwelling estimates
Forecast of Dwellings
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Swale
53,600
56,300
59,000
61,700
64,400
Kent
696,400 731,200 766,000 800,900 835,700
North Kent 238,200 251,600 265,100 278,500 291,900
3.2.5 The number of dwellings within the borough is due to increase
significantly over the South East Plan (SEP) period (up to 2026) with Swale
contributing 20% of the new dwellings forecast in the North Kent area.
However Swale will only contribute 7.7% of the forecast growth within Kent,
this is due to significant housing numbers in growth points such as Ashford
within the SEP area.
Figure 3.2.6
Dwellings Forecast
900,000
Number of Dwellings
800,000
700,000
600,000
Swale
500,000
Kent
400,000
North Kent
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
Year
16
3.2.7 Figure 3.2.6 shows the dwelling contribution Swale will make in
comparison to the North Kent and Kent totals. Swale’s housing figures make
up a significant percentage of North Kent but relatively small when compared
to the county.
Table 3.2.8 Dwellings to be built in each period by 2026 in Swale (SEP
Targets)
Housing Provision Forecast to 2026
Total
2006201120162021- 20062011
2016
2021
2026 2026
Swale
2,700
2,700
2,700
2,700 10,800
Table 3.2.9 Change in numbers and % of Dwellings (2006-2016)
Change
2006 to 16
Per
Per
no.
Year
no.
Year
%
%
Swale
2,700 5.0
500
5,400 10.1
500
2006 to 11
Table 3.2.10 Change in numbers and % of Dwellings (2006-2026)
Change
2006 to 21
2006 to 26
Per
Per
Year
Year
no.
no.
%
%
Swale
8,100 15.1
500
10,800 20.1
500
3.2.11 This indicates that Swale is expected to have 500 housing completions
per year and whilst there were 767 dwellings built for the year 07/08 there
were only 494 housing completions in the year 08/09. Given this decline in
completions resulting from the economic downturn and the slow progress on
site this year, it is unlikely Swale will meet the target of 500 dwellings per year.
Depending on the length of the recession, this may have impacts for meeting
the South East Plan target of 10,800 dwellings by 2026.
3.3 House prices
3.3.1 All house prices are sourced from the latest Land Registry figures for
2008. In 2006/07, the average house price was £175,455 , by 2007/08 this
had risen to £182,910, an increase of 79% since 2001. The biggest rises were
for entry-level stock. There was a gap of 21.7% between wages and the cost
of housing incomes over a three year period to 2004. There is an annual
affordable housing shortfall of 428 units per year, especially for flats and
terraced houses.
17
3.3.2 There is a dramatic difference in house price across the borough, with
higher prices in Faversham than in Sheppey.
3.3.3 Property prices in Sittingbourne rose by 14 per cent between January
2006 and January 2007. According to the latest Land Registry figures, the
average price of a property in Sittingbourne stood at £180,087 last January.
3.3.4 Property prices in Faversham, fell by 6.9 per cent between January
average price of a property in Faversham stood at £188,921 last January. The
average price of a detached home was £272,443 in January 2007, compared
to £320,437 in the previous January, a difference of 15 per cent.
3.3.5 Property prices in Sheerness, rose by 18.6 per cent between January
average price of a property in Sheerness stood at £160,986 last January. The
cheapest property purchased in Sheerness between January 2006 and
January 2007 sold for £29,000 while the most expensive cost £432,000.
18
4.0 Births and Deaths
4.1.1 For births there is the General Fertility Rate (GFR) and the Standardised
Fertility Ratio (SFR). For deaths there is the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and the
Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR).
4.1.2 The GFR denotes the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to
44 years in a specific area. Similarly, the CDR is the number of observed
deaths per 1,000 resident population.
4.1.3 The standardised ratios (SFR and SMR) look at the number of births
and deaths in an area and enable you to see whether they are above or below
the level that may be expected given the age and gender composition of the
area.
4.1.4 The ratios are calculated as the number of observed births/ deaths in an
area, divided by the expected number of births/ deaths of that area (if the area
had the same population age and sex structure as England and Wales)
multiplied by 100. The national SFR and SMR for England and Wales are 100.
Therefore, if an area has a higher SFR or SMR than 100, then there were
more births or deaths than would be expected.
Table 4.1.5 Births and Deaths
Swale
Kent
South
East
Births
GFR
SFR
64.7
109
61.1
103
60.8
100
CDR
Deaths
SMR
9.6
109
9.9
98
9.1
92
GFR: General Fertility Rate: Live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44SFR: Standardised Fertility Ratio:(Observed
livebirths as a % of the expected live births (expected = no. that would occur if the population of the area experienced
the age-specific fertility rates of E&W))CDR: Crude Death Rate: Deaths (All Ages) per 1,000 resident
population.SMR: Standardised Mortality Ratio: Observed deaths as a % of expected deaths(where expected deaths
= no. that would occur if the population of the area experienced age/sex mortality rates of E&W).
Source: Office of National Statistics
4.1.6 Swale has a higher SMR than 100 (109) indicating that there are more
deaths here than would be expected.
4.2 Births and Fertility
4.2.1 Tables below shows the number of births in Swale in 2006 and the births
each year since 2004.
19
All Live
Births
1
(Persons)
Males
1
(Persons)
Females
Swale
Year
Births
1,588
2004
2005
2006
2007
1,493
1,498
1,588
1,632
844
744
Last Updated: 16 March 2009 Source: Office for National Statistics
4.2.2. The tables show that Swale has an increasing birth rate. This is to be
expected with an increasing population, more residents equals more births.
The table also shows that Swale has slightly more baby boys born than girls,
data for years post 2006 are not yet available so whether this a trend or yearly
fluctuation cannot be determined.
Births by Gender
47%
Males (Persons)1
53%
.
%
%
&!
! .!
Females (Persons)1
%
4.2.3 Swale has above the national and well above the South East average of
conceptions by under 18 year olds, with roughly 50 people per 1000 having a
teenage pregnancy.
Table 4.2.4 Conceptions - Under 18's Jan 06 – Dec 06
Under 18 Conceptions (Persons)1 2
Count
Under 18 Conceptions (Persons)1 2 Rate per 1000
Swale South East England
130
5,219 39,170
49.9
33.1
40.6
-! / !
.
%
%
3 + !#
&!
! .!
%
20
4.2.5 Swale has 54 (per 100 total) live births outside marriage which is higher
than the regional average of 40 (per 100 total) live births.
4.2.6 The borough has a lower than national average rate of under weight
babies at birth. In 2006/7 the rate of births under 2500grams was 6.5% per
100 live births compared to the national rate of 7.6; these rates are based on
live births with stated birth weights.
Table 4.2.7 Low Birthweight Live Births Jan 06 – Dec 06
Low Birthweight Live Births (Live Births)
Low Birthweight Live Births (Live Births)
2
Count
%
102
6,749 47,629
6.5
6.9
7.6
Last Updated: 20 November 2008
4.2.8 The table below shows infant mortality rates within the borough, the
South East and England.
Table 4.2.9 Infant Mortality Rates 2007
Under 1 Year Old (rate per 1000 live births)
Under 4 Weeks Old (rate per 1000 live births)
Perinatal Mortality Rate (rate per 1000 live births)
* denotes a rate calculated from less than 20
events
Swale
9.2*
6.7*
9.2*
Kent
3.9
2.6
6.7
England
4.8
3.3
7.7
4.3 Deaths and Standardised Mortality ratios (SMR)
4.3.1 As mentioned above Swale has a Crude Death Rate of 9.6% per the
number of observed deaths per 1,000 resident population and a Standard
Mortality Rate of 109.The borough has a stable death rate which
demonstrates that the increase in population is not through natural change but
through in-migration into Swale.
4.3.2 This pattern of stable death rates is the same regionally and nationally.
Table 4.3.3 All Deaths (Number of Deaths each Year)
January 2006 to December 2006
1,225
75,496 470,326
1,139
76,849 479,678
1,205
76,740 480,717
Last Updated: 16 March 2009
21
5.0 Health
5.1.1 Swale exhibits significant health inequalities, reflecting the economic
and environmental divergencies that exist between the most disadvantaged
wards (on the Isle of Sheppey and in Sittingbourne) and the more affluent
parts of the Borough.
5.1.2 Overall, Swale’s health outcomes are generally worse than elsewhere in
the South East, as the table below of selected health indicators shows:
Indicator
Average Male life expectancy
Average female life
expectancy
% adults who are smokers
% adults who are obese
% of working age on incapacity
benefit
Swale
Kent
-
78.5
82.3
77.3
81.5
28.6
25.4
6.8
24.6
24.4
5.8
4.7
25.8
7.2
76.9
80.4
South-East
Britain
5.1.3 Some of these indicators are among the worst in Kent: for instance, the
proportion of adults who are obese is the highest of any district in Kent; the
proportion who smokes is the second highest.
5.1.4 However, these figures mask significant divergencies, which correlate
with wider inequalities in other areas. Poor health is also a consequence of
deprivation and a cause of it: while the proportion of people in Swale on
incapacity benefit is significantly above the regional average, the figure rises
to over 12% in Sheerness East and over 13% in Leysdown and Warden.
5.2 Life Expectancy
5.2.1 Life expectancy within the borough is well below the national average
and there are serious health inequalities across the borough. For example
women from the least deprived areas can expect to live almost five years
longer than those in deprived areas of Swale. Life expectancy is for instance
eight years higher in West Downs than it is in Sheerness West.
The map over the page demonstrates the most deprived and least deprived
wards in the borough. A list of the Output areas accompanies the map.
22
Source: NHS Health Profile 2008 (www.healthprofiles.info)
23
Source: NHS Health Profile 2008 (www.healthprofiles.info)
5.2.2 When cross referenced with the map the graph shows life expectancy
for a man living in Leysdown or Sheerness is 75 years compared with a man
living in St Michael’s Ward, in central Sittingbourne who will have a life
expectancy of 81 years. This difference of 6 years life expectancy indicates
that there is severe health deprivation in pockets of the borough.
5.2.3 The health of people in Swale is mixed when compared to the England
average. Adults appear to lead less healthy lifestyles, and physical activity in
children and GCSE achievement appear worse than average. However,
violent crime, claimants of benefits for mental illness and children'
s tooth
decay appear better than average.
24
5.2.4 Over the last ten years rates of deaths from all causes, early deaths
from heart disease and stroke and from cancer have improved and are close
to the England average. It is estimated that nearly 30% of adults smoke on
average. Death rates from smoking are worse than the England average.
Smoking accounts for over 230 deaths every year. Where recorded, smoking
rates during pregnancy are also high at around 20%. There are over 130
emergency admissions to hospital each year for people aged over 65 with a
hip fracture.
Table 5.2.5 Health Indicators 2007
Domain
Health Indicators for Swale
Number
per
Local
Indicator
year
Value
Smoking in pregnancy
295
20.1
Under-15s '
not in good health'
281
11.5
Physically active children
Obese children
Binge drinking adults
Healthy eating adults
Physically active adults
Adult'
s
Health
Obese adults
Incapacity benefits for mental
illness
Hospital stays related to alcohol
Drug misuse
Poor
People diagnosed with
Health
diabetes
Source: NHS Health Profile 2008
Children'
s
Health
England
Average
16.1
11.6
13637
36
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
76.4
9.1
16
21.8
11
26.5
85.7
9.9
18
26.3
11.6
23.6
1940
254
597
24.7
199.7
7.3
27.5
260.3
9.9
4934
3.9
3.7
5.2.6. Swale’s ageing population will lead to significant pressure on existing
health provision and the demand for adult social services is expected to
increase. The total number of older persons in the borough will increase by
around 45% by 2016. This includes significant projected changes for the 65 to
69 age group (increase of 63.4%) and the 85+ age group with an increase of
60%. Demands on services and their availability for residents and their carers
are likely to become increasingly important.
5.2.7 Furthermore The Alzheimer’s Society2 estimates that the incidence of
dementia in Swale will increase with the ageing population as shown in the
graph below.
2
www.alzheimers.org.uk/sites
25
Table 5.2.8 Forecast incidence of dementia in Swale
Source: Kent County Council Community Infrastructure Provision
5.2.9 Kent County Council research has also highlighted that the population of
residents in Swale with a learning disability is likely to grow by 22% between
2001 and 2021. In particular it identifies significant growth in older age groups
over the same period, 62% in the 60-79 age bracket and 95% increase in the
85+ age group. Similarly it is expected that numbers of people experiencing
disabling physical problems and other serious health problems will increase
as well. The table below shows forecasted increases for serious health
conditions for county level, it is expected that Swale will mirror these trends.
Table 5.2.10 Forecast of key long-term conditions affecting older people
in Kent
26
6.0 Learning
6.1.1 Qualification levels among Swale’s working age population are
significantly worse than both the national and regional averages. In 2006, over
14% of working age people within the Borough had no qualifications,
compared with less than 10% across the South East, and the proportion with
qualifications at NVQ4 and above was a third lower than elsewhere in the
region:
Qualifications of Working age population 2006
Swale
South East
UK
Qualification
(%)
(%)
(%)
NVQ4 and above
19.8
30.5
27.4
NVQ3 and above
41.7
49.4
45.3
NVQ2 and above
61.5
68.1
63.8
NVQ1 and above
80.4
82.5
77.7
Other qualifications
5.5
7.7
8.5
No qualifications
14.1
9.6
13.8
Source: ONS annual population survey
6.1.2 Across the country as a whole, the proportion of jobs requiring higher
qualifications is likely to increase, and there is a higher proportion of
employment in knowledge-intensive occupations in the South East than in
most of the rest of the country. Poor qualifications levels will act as a limit on
the ability of local people to access these new employment opportunities.
Swale’s poor skills profile relates to historic employer demand, which given
the Borough’s traditional sector strengths, has not tended to require the higher
skills levels that are increasingly in demand nationally. The interrelationship
between low skills levels and employer demand is characterised as a ‘low
skills equilibrium’: jobs that require poor skills provide little incentive to gain
new ones, and the presence of a relatively low skilled workforce deters highervalue investors.3
6.1.3 There is evidence that the Borough’s skills profile is improving. Among
the current workforce, the proportion qualified to at least NVQ2 increased by
over 9 percent between 2001/2 and 2005/6, ahead of the Kent average.
6.1.4 School attainment has also improved significantly: between 2003 and
2007, the percentage of students achieving GCSE passes at grades A*-C in
Swale schools increased by 27%, compared with a Kent average of 16% and
a national average of 15%. However, the borough’s average attainment
figures still lag behind those for Kent and England as a whole. With this
continued improvement, and the prospects of investment in the new Minster
Academy and in the wider reorganisation of education on the Isle of Sheppey,
the outlook for long-term improvement in the Borough’s skills profile appear
stronger.
3
Swale Learning Strategy 2008
27
7.0 Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007
7.1.1. The Indices of Multiple Deprivation issued by Communities and Local
Government provide a picture of the area and how deprived it is. The measure
of how deprived an area is based on a wide range of data on different
subjects such as benefit claims, education and health levels. The Indices of
Deprivation 2007 provide a range of information including a detailed
breakdown for small areas known as Lower Super Output Areas as well as at
Local Authority and County level.
7.1.2 The Indices of Deprivation enables small pockets of deprivation to be
pinpointed and highlight areas which need focusing on to improve the quality
of life. The Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) have seven domains which
are measured, they include; Income Deprivation, Employment Deprivation,
Health Deprivation and Disability, Education, Skills and Training Deprivation,
Barriers to Housing and Services, Living Environment Deprivation and Crime.
These scores are then combined with explicit weightings to generate the index
and ranking.
th
7.1.3 Kent as a whole (excluding Medway) is within England’s 4 quintile
nationally, meaning it is within England’s least 60-80% deprived, however
there are very different levels of deprivation within the county as is illustrated
below. Swale is amongst the most deprived boroughs within Kent, superseded
only by Thanet.
28
7.1.4 In terms of national ranking, Swale is positioned within the most
deprived 35% of local authorities nationally. However this overall position
masks extremes of deprivation, with some Lower Super Output Areas being
extremely deprived and others relatively affluent such as Faversham and rural
areas to the south of Sittingbourne. The map below shows the ranking of
Lower Super Output Areas within Swale, it shows that Sheerness Bluetown
and Murston are within the top 10% deprived areas.
Map for 2007 Lower Super Output Areas in Swale
•
21264-32482 (Rank) – Top 20% Ranking Areas (Least Deprived)
16782-21263 (Rank)
13234-16781 (Rank)
6720-13233 (Rank)
1-6719 (Rank) – Bottom 20% Ranking Areas (Most Deprived)
29
7.1.5 The areas are ranked out of all the Super Output Areas nationally of
which there are 32,482. Those Lower Super Output Areas with a rank below
3,248 are in the 10% most deprived areas, the lower the ranking the more
deprived an area is.
7.1.6 In Swale nine Super Output Areas on the Isle of Sheppey are within the
top 20% of deprived areas nationally. Furthermore Milton Regis, Murston and
Watling wards within the top 25 most deprived in the borough.
7.1.7 Swale has a particularly high percentage of older residents experiencing
deprivation which is measured by IDAOPI.
7.1.8 The Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) is a
supplementary index in ‘The English Indices of Deprivation 2007’ (Department
for Communities and Local Government). The IDAOPI looks at the proportion
of older people aged 60+ living in income deprived households. Income
deprivation affecting older people is defined as those adults aged 60 or over
living in Pension Credit (guarantee) households as a proportion of all those
aged 60 or over. A key indicator of a low income household is whether central
heating and fuel are available. The figure above shows Chart 24 from Kent
County Council’s research highlights that Swale has the second highest
proportion of 50+ with no central heating.
7.1.9 When looking at the 15 most deprived Super Output Areas within Swale
against each of the seven domains that deprivation is measured. Many of the
areas score in more than one domain indicating severe pockets of deprivation
where quality of life is low and in need of improvement. These 15 most
30
deprived Super Output Areas for each of the deprivation domains measured
can be found at Appendix A
31
8.0 Benefit claiming
8.1.1 In February 2009 Swale had 13,240 residents claiming a key benefit4,
16.7% of the working age population. This is slightly higher than the national
average of 15.7% but markedly higher than the South East average of 11.3%.
However between February and July of 2009 the number of claimants for Job
Seekers has reduced by over 100 residents.
8.1.2 Below is the breakdown of benefits claimed within Swale.
Table 8.1.3 Child Benefit Statistics Aug 06
Total Number of Families Claiming Benefit (Persons)2 1 16,330
981,015 6,168,010
21
Families with One Child (Persons)
6,840
406,785 2,695,855
21
Families with Two Children (Persons)
6,565
410,195 2,434,055
21
Families with Three or More Children (Persons)
2,920
164,035 1,038,100
Last Updated: 30 January 2008
Source: Her Majesty'
s Revenue and Customs
Table 8.1.4 Income Support Claimants Aug 08
Swale South East
Total (Persons)
Count 4,800
197,830
Claimants Aged 16-24 (Persons)
Count 750
29,400
%
16
15
Count 3,170
129,620
%
66
66
Count 870
38,780
%
18
20
Claimants Aged 60 and Over (Persons) Count
0
30
Claimants Aged 60 and Over (Persons)
%
0
0
England
1,775,270
254,100
14
1,153,250
65
367,690
21
230
0
Last Updated: 19 June 2009
Source: Department for Work and Pensions
8.1.5 Swale also has 11,040 claimants of Council Tax Benefit and/or Housing
Benefit and 5,810 residents claiming Pension Credit.
Table 8.1.6 Working Age Key Benefit Claimants Feb 2009
Swale
(numbers)
Swale
(%)
South East
(%)
Great Britain
(%)
Total claimants
13,240
16.7
11.3
15.7
Job seekers
3,110
3.9
2.8
3.9
ESA and
incapacity
benefits
5,480
6.9
4.7
7.0
Lone parents
1,980
2.5
1.5
2.0
4
Benefits include: Carers allowance, Disability Living Allowance, Incapacity Benefit, Income
Support, JobSeekers allowance, severe disablement allowance, widows benefit.
32
Carers
1,090
1.4
0.8
1.1
Others on
income related
benefits
490
0.6
0.4
0.5
Disabled
890
1.1
0.8
1.0
Bereaved
200
0.3
0.2
0.2
Key out-of-work
†
benefits
11,060
14.0
9.4
13.4
.
6
&
% 4' +
%!"!
) ( 5 ,!, %
,
7#
5
9
!
!
) )( 5+
%! !% #+
%"
!
%
!
,
!
8+
+
( 5 ,!,
! !
8.1.7 Benefit claiming within Swale is similar to the national average. This
trend is true for all types of benefits shown. There is however a large
proportion of the population providing care for those with long term illness or
disability who are not claiming carers allowance and providing care for free.
This is a relatively hidden workforce yet 11,344 Swale residents provide
unpaid care and 24% of those are providing care for more than 50 hours a
week.
Table 8.1.8 Health and Provision of Unpaid Care 2001
South
England
East
Count 122,801 8,000,645 49,138,831
Count 21,623 1,237,399 8,809,194
% 17.61
15.47
17.93
Swale
All People (Persons)1
1
People with a limiting long-term illness (Persons)
1
People with a limiting long-term illness (Persons)
People of working age with a limiting long-term illness
Count 10,079
(Persons)1
People of working age with a limiting long-term illness
% 13.47
(Persons)1
1
All people who provide unpaid care (Persons)
Count 11,344
All people who provide unpaid care: 1-19 hours a week
Count 7,425
1
(Persons)
All people who provide unpaid care: 1-19 hours a week
% 65.45
(Persons)1
All people who provide unpaid care: 20-49 hours a
Count 1,153
1
week (Persons)
All people who provide unpaid care: 20-49 hours a
% 10.16
week (Persons)1
All people who provide unpaid care: 50 or more hours
Count 2,766
a week (Persons)1
All people who provide unpaid care: 50 or more hours
% 24.38
1
a week (Persons)
521,137 4,014,005
10.63
737,751 4,877,060
541,905 3,347,531
-! / !
.
%
13.29
%
73.45
68.64
65,693
530,797
8.90
10.88
130,153
998,732
17.64
20.48
& 0 "+
&!
! .!
%
8.1.9 There have also been significant rises in residents claiming disability
living allowance. This is to be expected due to the overall rise in population in
the borough and its ageing nature which results in higher cases of disability
and associated benefits.
33
Table 8.1.10 Disability Living Allowance Claimants
August 2008
August 2007
August 2006
August 2005
August 2004
August 2003
August 2002
Swale South East
6,880
287,260
6,450
272,600
6,040
259,340
5,830
251,470
5,570
240,970
5,260
228,380
4,840
215,020
England
2,453,310
2,375,900
2,292,900
2,237,510
2,173,470
2,091,820
1,995,090
Last Updated: 19 June 2009
Source: Department for Work and Pensions
34
9.0 Ethnicity
9.1.1 Ethnicity is hard to record within Swale as this is recorded as part of the
census. It is likely that through the large amount of in-migration to the area an
increase the diversity in ethnic backgrounds will have occurred since 2001.
The table below shows the ethnic groups within Swale at the time of the last
census.
Table 9.1.2 Ethnic Group as of Census 2001
Swale
White (Persons)
White: British (Persons)
White: Irish (Persons)
White: Other White (Persons)
Mixed (Persons)
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean (Persons)
Mixed: White and Black African (Persons)
Mixed: White and Asian (Persons)
Mixed: Other Mixed (Persons)
Asian or Asian British (Persons)
Asian or Asian British: Indian (Persons)
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani (Persons)
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi (Persons)
Asian or Asian British: Other Asian (Persons)
Black or Black British (Persons)
Black or Black British: Caribbean (Persons)
Black or Black British: African (Persons)
Black or Black British: Other Black (Persons)
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group (Persons)
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Chinese (Persons)
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Other Ethnic Group
(Persons)
122,801
120,516
118,053
885
1,578
835
241
109
300
185
711
398
82
143
88
405
163
170
72
334
219
South
England
East
8,000,645 49,138,831
7,608,989 44,679,361
7,304,678 42,747,136
82,405
624,115
221,906 1,308,110
85,779
643,373
23,742
231,424
9,493
76,498
29,977
184,014
22,567
151,437
186,615 2,248,289
89,219 1,028,546
58,520
706,539
15,358
275,394
23,518
237,810
56,914 1,132,508
27,452
561,246
24,582
475,938
4,880
95,324
62,348
435,300
33,089
220,681
115
29,259
-! / !
.
%
%
214,619
& 0 "+
&!
! .!
%
9.1.3 The table below shows all households by whether the household
contains people in different ethnic groups.
Table 9.1.4 Multiple Ethnic Groups Census 2001
South
England
East
49,257 3,287,489 20,451,427
12,967
937,468 6,150,264
Swale
All Households (Households)
One person household (Households)
All household members have the same ethnic group
(Households)
Different identities between generations only (Households)
Different identities within partnerships (Households)
34,300 2,135,988 12,965,136
334
1,422
33,839
143,780
318,939
763,508
35
Other combination of multiple ethnic groups (Households)
234
36,414
-! / !
.
%
%
253,580
& 0 "+
&!
! .!
%
9.1.5 The figures show that 69% of households have the same ethnicity
across household members. The table also shows that 3% of households are
made up of mixed ethnicity partnerships.
9.1.6 Swale has experienced the second largest percentage increase in BME5
population between 2006 and 2007 with an increase of 14.5%, which was
equivalent to an additional 800 people. Swale has had the second largest
increase only superseded by Tonbridge and Malling.
Table 9.1.7 BME population in Kent local authority districts – 2006 to
2007
Note: percentages have been calculated using rounded numbers
Source: Office for National Statistics, Crown Copyright 2009 Mid-2006 Ethnic Population
Estimates, Table EE1, released 21 August 2008 Mid-2007 Ethnic Population Estimates, Table
EE1, released 23 April 2009Table presented by Research & Intelligence, Kent County Council
(The ethnic population estimates are classified as experimental statistics. This
means that they have not yet been shown to meet the quality criteria for
5
Definition of the BME population
The Black Minority Ethnic (BME) population is defined as all ethnic groups excluding White
British, White Irish and White Other.
36
National Statistics but are being published to involve users in the development
of the methodology and to help build quality at an early stage.)
9.1.8 The map on the following page shows only the percentage increase
each authority has had in the year 2006-2007 and shows significant growth in
authorities which previously had low BME populations. Similarly Medway and
Gravesham show minor increases however their existing BME populations are
relatively high when compared to Swale.
37
MAP 9.1.8 BME POPULATION IN KENT BOROUGHS 2007
38
9.1.9 In Swale there has been significant growth in populations from certain ethnic backgrounds. The table below shows the figures
from each BME group and their increase since 2002. This shows that the BME population has increased from 2.4% of the whole
population in Swale to 4.3% in 2006. Given that overall population within the borough has increased significantly this translates to
an exponential increase in residents from BME backgrounds.
Table 9.1.10
White
Mixed
Other
White
White
and
Black
Carib
bean
White
and
Black
African
Asian or Asian British
Chinese or Other
Ethnic Group
Black or Black British
Indian
Pakist
ani
Chinese
Other
BME
Popul
ation*
2002
124,400
118,700
900
1,800
300
100
300
200
500
100
200
100
300
300
100
300
200
3,000
2003
125,800
119,100
1,000
2,100
300
100
300
300
600
200
200
200
400
500
100
300
200
3,600
2004
126,800
119,300
1,000
2,200
300
200
400
300
700
200
200
200
400
600
100
300
300
4,200
2005
127,600
119,200
1,000
2,400
400
200
400
300
800
300
300
300
500
800
100
400
300
5,000
2006
128,500
119,400
1,000
2,600
400
200
400
300
900
300
300
300
600
900
100
400
300
5,500
All
Groups
British
Irish
White
and
Asian
Other
Mixed
Bangla
deshi
Other
Asian
Black
Caribbean
Black
African
Other
Black
9.1.11 The rate of this growth and the groups which have increased the most are best shown in graph form over the page. These
show that there has been a marked increase in residents who are from Black or Black British backgrounds and Asian or Asian
British. There has been a lesser rate of growth in the other BME populations.
39
Table 9.1.12- Population Growth Rates of BME Populations
Ethnic Growth - White
Ethnic Grow th - Asian or Asian British
Ethnic Grow th - Chinese or Other
124,000
2,000
Growth in Number
123,000
122,000
1,800
800
1,600
700
1,400
121,000
120,000
Other White
1,200
Irish
1,000
British
119,000
Ot her Asian
Bangladeshi
800
600
118,000
400
Indian
300
2003
2004
2005
0
2002
2006
2003
2004
2005
2002
2006
Years
2003
2004
2005
2006
Ye a r s
Ye a r s
Ethnic Grow th - Mixed
Chinese
100
0
2002
Ot her
200
200
116,000
500
Pakist ani
400
117,000
600
Ethnic Grow th - Black or Black British
1,400
1,800
1,200
Ot her Mixed
1,600
1,400
1,000
Whit e and Asian
800
Whit e and Black Af r ican
600
400
Whit e and Black
Car ibbean
200
1,200
Ot her Black
1,000
Black Af r ican
800
Black Car ibbean
600
400
200
0
2002
2003
2004
Ye a r s
2005
2006
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Ye a r s
40
9.2 Religion
9.2.1 Again figures only exist from the 2001 Census so percentages are likely
to have changed. This will be verified at the 2011 Census.
Table 9.2.2 Religion Census 2001
122,801 8,000,645 49,138,831
Christian (Persons)
93,192 5,823,025 35,251,244
Buddhist (Persons)
164
22,005
139,046
Hindu (Persons)
248
44,575
546,982
Jewish (Persons)
103
19,037
257,671
Muslim (Persons)
448
108,725 1,524,887
Sikh (Persons)
112
37,735
327,343
Any other religion (Persons)
340
28,668
143,811
No religion (Persons)
18,888 1,319,979 7,171,332
Religion not stated (Persons) 9,306
596,896 3,776,515
-! / !
.
%
%
& 0 "+
&!
! .!
%
9.2.3 As of 2001, 75% of the borough’s population saw themselves as
Christian. Swale does have a variety of other religious communities such as
Hindu, Muslim and Jewish to name but a few. These communities make up
just below 1% of the population each.
9.3 Place of Birth
9.3.1 The table below shows that, like the rest of the South East, the majority
of residents are born within the UK, in particular England. In total 96% of
Swale residents were born in the United Kingdom. Interestingly less than 1%
of the borough’s residents were born in EU countries (other than the UK)
compared to the national average of 1.9%.
Table 9.3.2 Country of Birth as of Census 2001
Swale
1
1
Born in Europe (Persons)
1
Born in Europe: United Kingdom (Persons)
1
Born in Europe: United Kingdom: England (Persons)
Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Scotland (Persons)1
Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Northern Ireland (Persons)1
Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Wales (Persons)1
Born in Europe: United Kingdom: Part not specified
1
(Persons)
1
Born in Europe: Republic of Ireland (Persons)
1
Born in Europe: Channel Islands (Persons)
Born in Europe: Other Western Europe (Persons)1
Born in Europe: Other Western Europe: EU countries
(Persons)1
122,803
120,516
118,317
115,437
1,437
393
1,042
South
England
East
8,000,645 49,138,831
7,603,219 46,045,077
7,349,275 44,594,817
7,041,745 42,968,596
152,771
794,577
37,545
215,124
116,368
609,711
8
846
6,809
698
36
1,251
64,384
6,340
153,767
460,287
27,550
726,523
1,076
136,409
660,061
41
Born in Europe: Other Western Europe: Non EU Countries in
1
Western Europe (Persons)
1
Born in Europe: Eastern Europe (Persons)
1
Born in Africa (Persons)
Born in Asia (Persons)1
Born in North America (Persons)1
Born in: South America (Persons)1
1
Born in Oceania (Persons)
1
Born Elsewhere (Persons)
175
17,358
214
635
988
331
56
228
49
29,453
235,900
101,624
798,218
189,033 1,566,998
61,931
460,258
10,834
72,867
29,745
155,072
4,259
40,341
-! / !
.
%
66,462
%
& 0 "+
&!
! .!
%
9.4 Migrant workforce
9.4.1 The European Union (EU) was enlarged on 01 May 2004. From this
date, the EU consisted of : Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary,
Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Malta and (Greek) Cyprus. The EU was
further enlarged on 01 January 2007 to include free movement of people from
Bulgaria and Romania. Given the above, only the latest data (2007/08)
includes all 12 EU Accession Countries. Data presented for the EU Accession
Countries before this date exclude Bulgaria and Romania.
9.4.2 In the below data the definition of migrants – translates to overseas
nationals allocated a National Insurance Number.
9.4.3 Since 2002/03, there has been a marked growth in the number of
migrant workers in the KCC Area, higher than the growth experienced
nationally. Figure 9.4.4 illustrates the growth. Over two-and-a-half times the
number of migrant workers came to the KCC Area in 2007/08 than in 2002/03.
Figure 9.4.4 Growth in Migrant Workers
42
Table 9.4.5 All migrant workers each year
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Kent
5,090
5,680
8,030
12,590
Swale
150
180
470
1,030
Source: Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)
2006-07
12,600
730
2007-08
13,520
1,170
9.4.6 Swale has the fourth highest number of migrant workers out of all Kent
local authorities, the highest being Medway with over 2000 in the year 200708.
Figure 9.4.7 Growth of Migrant Population from EU Accession Countries
in Swale
Swale
1200
Migrant of EU Ascention
1000
800
600
Swale
400
200
0
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Years
9.4.8 Significant growth in migrant workers from EU Accession Countries
occurred in the period 2003/04 to 2005/06 following EU enlargement in May
2004. The latest data for 2007/08 shows another sharp increase, however this
is due to the inclusion of migrant workers from Romania and Bulgaria.
9.4.9 In total migrant workers account for 1.42% of Swale’s working age
population
9.4.10 Where have the migrant workers come from? - Since 2002/03, only
two countries have maintained a “top 10 country of origin” position in providing
migrant workers to Kent and they are India and France. Australia and South
Africa just drop out of the top 10 in the latest period.
43
Table 9.4.11 Migrant Workers in KCC Area by Country of Origin, 2007/08
9.5 Gypsies and Travellers
9.5.1 Although defined as an ethnic group by the Race Relations (Amended)
Act 2000, Gypsy or Traveller is not an option on the ethnic background part of
the 2001 Census. Therefore exact figures on how many people are Gypsies
and Travellers are not known.
9.5.2 No accurate figures are available for Gypsies and Travellers within the
borough, particularly those in bricks and mortar accommodation. However
The Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessment for North Kent 2007
estimated that there are 48 households with planning permission, 23
households on un-authorised sites and 10 households within bricks and
mortar housing.
44
10.0 Travel to Work
10.1.1.The table below provides data on the modes of transport used to travel
to work by working age residents as part of the Census 2001.
Table 10.1.2 Transport Modes as of Census 2001
!,
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10.1.3 Over 50% of residents travel to work by car, nearly 7% by train and
10% by walking. The average distance travelled to get to work is 17.46km exact distances travelled are shown, in comparison with other East Kent
authorities, below.
45
Table 10.1.4 Distance Travelled to Work
Source: East Kent Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009
10.1.5 Swale has the highest number of people travelling between 10km and
20km with 28%. In Swale, 14% travelled 60km and over, the most of all of the
five local authorities. This large percentage of out commuting can be
examined in more detail if work destinations are known.
46
Table 10.1.6 Daily Travel-to-work Journeys (2001) Source: East Kent Strategic Market Housing Assessment
To
Rest of
South
East of
From
Canterbury Dover Shepway Swale Thanet Kent
East
London England
Canterbury
41,574
2,491
863 2,120
1,794
4,293
531
2,659
299
Dover
3,384 32,551
3,521
356
1,415
1,959
333
789
203
Shepway
1,448
2,701
29,182
200
249
5,612
496
1,371
140
2,768
305
189 36,196
201
10,044
505
4,724
319
Swale
Thanet
3,673
4,218
435
449 36,812
1,388
332
1,293
197
Rest of
Kent
2,467
1,032
2,403 5,926
357
South East
210
412
423
202
69
London
310
241
118
353
147
East of
England
81
175
55
150
68
10.1.7 The figures show that Swale has the most residents commuting to London (4,724) over two thousand more than the closest
authority Canterbury. However over 36 thousand residents work as well as live in Swale and 10 thousand commute to other areas
in Kent than the authorities mentioned in the table. Swale has relatively few residents commuting to Dover, Shepway, Thanet or out
of Kent to the East/South East of England. There is still, by comparison, a large percentage of out commuting within the borough.
47
Swale Travel to Work
The Travel to Work maps illustrate the percentage of economically active
population of each ward travelling into the named district for work.
48
49
Table 10.1.8 Occupation and location of work place for residents in
Swale
10.1.9 The table above shows the various professions of Swale residents on
the left and the colored bars indicate where residents work.
10.1.10 This shows that the highest percentage of residents who live and
work within the borough are employed as: Small employers and own account
workers, Routine occupations and Semi-routine occupations.
10.1.11 It also indicates that those residents employed as: Lower managerial
and professional occupations, Higher professional occupations and Large
employers and higher managerial occupations; are travelling outside the
borough to other authorities and London to work. This indicates that job
opportunities within these sectors are currently missing from the Swale
job/employment offer.
50
11.0 Conclusion
11.1.1 This topic paper has highlighted a number of issues which will need to
be addressed through the Core Strategy. Some of the issues raised can be
addressed through a spatial translation such as housing, open spaces or
community infrastructure. However some of the problems cannot be resolved
by ‘bricks and mortar’ however change can be facilitated by the Core Strategy
such as creating the right environments for improvement.
11.1.2 Below is a list of issues highlighted within the baseline data and their
potential spatial solutions. These issues and the potential solutions will of
course be tested through the sustainability appraisal framework for the draft
Core Strategy.
51
Key Messages
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increased population will require additional housing to meet the
groups identified with forecast growth e.g. single older persons, cohabiting couples.
Population change is due to inward migration rather than natural
change so our new communities need to be catered for as well as
our existing ones. This may mean more or specialist community
facilities such as places of worship, cultural centres or village halls.
Increased population will require necessary infrastructure and
community provision.
Dwelling type should be to meet the various housing market areas
which are detailed and assessed in the Strategic Housing Market
Assessment.
Swale has significant pockets of deprivation, including significant
health inequalities. This should lead to health provision being
focused on these areas and joint working with the NHS and local
primary care trusts.
An ageing population is likely to lead to an increase in long-term
health conditions which in turn will mean increased health facilities
and increased pressure for adult social services monies through
S106. Exact needs will be established through the Older Persons
Strategy.
An ageing population is also likely to create the need for specialist
housing solutions e.g. care homes, sheltered/warden
accommodation, disabled accessible flats and an increase in take up
in initiatives such as Swale Borough Council’s Staying Put. All of
these will require joint working with stakeholders and developers and
may result in S106 requirements to meet these needs.
Education and skills levels are below average and improved access
to higher education for residents is needed. A more attractive
employment offer is also needed to ensure residents with higher
levels remain in the borough and that new residents and businesses
are attracted.
Deprivation is significant in the pockets around the borough and
focus upon resolving this is needed. Regeneration is a potential
vehicle for improving quality of life in these areas.
The borough is becoming more ethnically diverse which may lead to
specialist requirements for housing and community facilities.
The borough has significant migrant workers which little is known
about, it is unclear whether this would have significant effect but a
possible outcome would be the need for more seasonal agricultural
workers accommodation.
52
APPENDIX A
Top 15 OVERALL most deprived SOA’s in Swale according to
the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007
Rank
Ward
IND
Score
Top 15 most deprived INCOME SOA’s in Swale according to
the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007.
Rank
of IMD
1
Sheerness East
60.12
899
2
Leysdown & Warden
58.68
1040
3
Murston
55.2
1451
4
Sheerness West
54.28
1576
5
Sheerness West
49.82
2345
6
Queenbrough & Halfway
47.44
2780
7
Sheppey Central
45.76
3162
8
Sheerness West
44.44
3473
9
Milton Regis
3976
4738
10
Davington
39.47
4814
11
Leysdown & Warden
38.12
5231
12
Sheppey Central
37.44
5416
13
Sheerness East
35.97
5911
14
Kemsley
35.28
6198
15
Sheerness West
34.75
6390
Rank
Ward
IND Score
Rank
of IMD
1
Sheerness West
0.46
941
2
Sheppey Central
0.40
1915
3
Murston
0.38
2285
4
Sheerness West
0.38
2306
5
Queenbrough & Halfway
0.35
2944
6
Sheppey East
0.34
3188
7
Davington
0.33
3611
8
Milton Regis
0.31
4157
9
Grove
0.31
4189
10
Sheppey West
0.31
4237
11
Sheppey East
0.30
4384
12
Leysdown & Warden
0.30
4519
13
Kemsley
0.29
4998
14
St Anns
0.28
5189
15
Roman
0.25
6333
APPENDIX A
Top 15 most deprived EMPLOYMENT SOA’s in Swale according to the
Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007
Rank
Ward
IND
Score
Rank
of IMD
1
Murston
0.30
424
2
Sheerness East
0.30
490
Top 15 most deprived HEALTH DEPRIVATION & DISABILITY SOA’s in
Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007
Rank
1
2
Ward
IND Score
Rank
of IMD
Sheerness East
1.54
1453
Sheppey Central
1.33
2359
3
Leysdown & Warden
0.23
1696
3
Sheerness West
1.29
2558
4
Sheerness West
0.22
2050
4
Sheppey Central
1.23
2817
5
Sheerness West
0.19
2770
5
Murston
1.21
2981
6
Sheppey Central
0.19
3319
6
Sheerness West
1.14
3426
7
Sheppey Central
0.18
3523
7
Leysdown & Warden
1.11
3597
8
Sheerness West
0.17
3839
8
Milton Regis
0.85
5673
9
Davington
0.17
4484
9
Davington
0.78
6433
10
Queenborough & Halfway
0.15
5181
10
Sheerness West
0.77
6544
11
Roman
0.15
6007
11
0.74
6778
12
Watling
0.15
6339
12
Abbey
0.72
6991
13
Milton Regis
0.15
6444
13
Kemsley
0.65
7809
14
Sheerness East
0.15
6448
14
Sheerness West
0.58
8529
15
Kemsley
0.15
6681
15
Minster Cliffs
0.58
8554
APPENDIX A
Top 15 most deprived EDUCATION, SKILLS & TRAINING
SOA’s in Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation
2007
Rank
Ward
1
IND Score
Rank
of IMD
Top 15 most deprived BARRIERS TO HOUSING &
SERVICES SOA’s in Swale according to the Index of Multiple
Deprivation 2007
Rank
Sheerness East
93.65
53
Sheppey Central
90.77
93
Sheerness West
84.10
254
2
3
4
Sheppey Central
79.62
409
5
Murston
77.15
6
Sheerness West
7
IND Score
Rank of
IMD
Leysdown & Warden
55.39
105
Leysdown & Warden
53.51
165
East Downs
48.53
599
4
East Downs
44.23
1255
508
5
Boughton & Courtenay
40.73
2075
76.70
526
6
40.23
2221
Leysdown & Warden
74.64
625
7
39.09
2560
8
Milton Regis
74.10
655
8
Queenborough
35.81
3769
9
Davington
73.26
698
9
Teynham & Lynsted
35.71
3814
Sheerness West
70.90
859
10
Borden
33.98
4675
69.21
979
6898
67.97
1064
Hartlip, Newington &
Upchurch
Watling
30.98
Abbey
11
12
29.30
7659
13
Kemsley
67.30
1115
13
Grove
29.15
7763
14
Sheerness West
66.88
1148
14
Sheppey Central
28.65
8126
15
Minster Cliffs
59.20
1897
15
Minster Cliffs
28.30
8398
2
3
10
11
12
1
Ward
APPENDIX A
Top 15 most deprived LIVING ENVIRONMENT SOA’s in
Swale according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007
Rank
1
Ward
IND Score
Rank of
IMD
Top 15 most deprived CRIME & DISORDER SOA’s in Swale
according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007
Rank
Ward
Sheerness East
50.52
2525
Sheerness West
47.63
3129
Roman
45.57
3612
2
3
4
Leysdown & Warden
45.13
3707
5
Sheerness East
42.89
6
Teynham & Lynsted
7
Rank of
IMD
Sheerness East
1.31
1860
Sheerness West
1.29
1969
Roman
0.99
4007
4
Leysdown & Warden
0.86
5122
4237
5
Sheerness East
0.72
6440
40.62
4917
6
Teynham & Lynsted
0.71
6581
Sheerness East
38.68
5503
7
Sheerness East
0.69
6886
8
38.37
5605
8
0.66
7132
9
Sheerness East
37.40
5927
9
Sheerness East
0.66
7233
St Michaels
29.92
8635
10
St Michaels
0.65
7321
Abbey
29.67
8753
Abbey
0.64
7397
Chalkwell
29.63
8770
11
12
Chalkwell
0.64
7439
13
Roman
29.15
8985
13
Roman
0.62
7670
14
East Downs
28.69
9186
14
East Downs
0.61
7726
15
Teynham & Lynsted
27.80
9573
15
Teynham & Lynsted
0.60
7877
2
3
10
11
12
1
IND Score
APPENDIX A

Demography and Social Trends

Transcription

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