BMKG Contribution

BMKG Contribution
For G4INDO
Dra. Nurhayati, MSc
Center for Climate, Agro- and Marine-Climate, BMKG
1 st All Partners Workshop of the G4INDO Project
Bogor, 9 Oktober 2014
Outline
BMKG
• Background, Policy-based Activities
• BMKG Climate services to support Food Security
• Possible contributions and activities for G4INDO
Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Policies related with food security and climate information
BMKG
• International, United Nations:
– Eradicating hunger, high on the list of UN’s Millennium Development
Goals.
• World Meteorological Organization:
– Global Framework on Climate Services: priority area, Agriculture and
Food security
• Nationally:
– Presidential Instruction, No. 5/2011. Securing rice productivity in facing
extreme climate. BMKG is mandated to provide the analysis of extreme
climate and disseminate climate early warning information.
• BMKG:
BMKG
– Development of Climate Early Warning Systems
– Seasonal Prediction, monthly rainfall forecast, length of dry season
– Integrated crop calendar (under Joint Cooperation Project 2)
Climate Services supporting Agriculture
BMKG

Partnership has been established with strong link between provideruser of climate information, in this context is BMKG and Min. of
Agriculture.

Various products and services has been developed, a few examples will
be shown or mentioned.

In framing the services for agriculture, we adopt the Global Framework
for Climate Services and its five pillars.
Global Framework for Climate Services
BMKG
•
The GFCS has 5 pillars, shown
schematically by the diagram on
the left.
•
Priority areas:
–
–
–
–
•
Agriculture and food security
Health
Water
Disaster Risk Reduction
Essential and key role of the
NMHSs [i.e. BMKG] as foundation
of the Framework
Global Framework for Climate Services
BMKG
•
Essential role of NMHSs:
–
•
Collaboration with academia:
–
–
•
Observations and monitoring.
Research,
modeling
and
prediction
Capacity
building:
Human
resources, institutional,
‘Shared ownership’ of climate
information
with
users
through:
–
–
Climate Services Information
System
User Interface Platform
GFCS – Existing services
BMKG
• Climate Field School
• Automation of climate forecast to
crop calendar [JCP2]
• System for monthly – seasonal
forecast: various products
Climate Field Schools – User Interface Platform
BMKG
2013
Key lessons learnt

The combination of understanding the
weather, climate and new farming
techniques have allowed farmers to plant
different crops at different times of the year
depending on which crop is best suited to the
weather/climate, and thereby increase the
productivity and their income.

Developing an effective method for
communicating
climate
(forecast)
information to the end-users like farmers is
very important. The involvement of
intermediaries through agricultural field
officer in the process is key in translating the
climate information into an information that
farmers understood.
• Paddy yield : 7.4 ton/ha
• Average
: 6 ton/ha
Sulawesi Selatan, 2013
• Paddy yield : 10 ton/ha
• Average
: 6 – 7 ton/ha
Kalimantan Barat, 2014
• Paddy yield : 8.46 ton/ha
• Average
: 6.2 ton/ha
NTB, 2014
• Corn yield
• Average
: 39.76 ton/ha
: 32 – 33 ton/ha
Banten, 2014
ASEAN-CFS Training for Trainers
BMKG
Duplicating
best
practices of CFS in
ASEAN scale through
Training of Trainers
BMKG
Possible contributions and activities for G4INDO
Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Possible contribution for G4INDO
BMKG
• Gridded precipitation data product with 0.1 degree resolution. Using
blended data of in-situ and satellite observation
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KRIGING
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TRMM
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BLENDED
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Alignment of ongoing activities to G4INDO
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Automation of climate information to cropping calendar, activity in Joint
Cooperation Project 2
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Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Alignment of ongoing activities to G4INDO
BMKG
Continued plan for2015:
• Improvement of monthly to seasonal scale information using
ensemble based forecast leading to a probabilistic type of
forecast information.
• Currently under preparation. Successfully run WRF using GFS as
global forcing field.
• Will use ECMWF ensembles as input in 2015.
What does that mean?
• Output of climate information will not be single. Instead it will
give various possible scenarios with its corresponding chance of
occurrence (probabilities).
• Represents natural (inherent) uncertainty in climate.
• Input for cropping calendar will be several scenarios: need a
model for decision making in crop calendar.
Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Summary
BMKG
• Proposed activities in G4INDO is inline with the mandate
given to BMKG to support food security.
• Existing planned activities align well with activities
proposed in G4INDO.
• Expectations:
1) Co Analysis for seasonal prediction
2) Knowledge sharing on applying Climate insurance index
3) Capacity development in Agriculture meteorology
Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Sumber gambar: Google image
BMKG
Normal Corn yield before CFS is 15,000 kg per hectare
Results of crops is scaled by ubin (1 ubin= 2.5*2.5 m2)
which 1600 ubin equal to 1 hectare