publication

Transcription

publication

CESI
Energy
Journal
Issue 02 - January 2014
Africa is
on the move
The global energy
village
A fast-changing
energy world
For Africa this is a moment of great
promise. President Barack Obama
presents a new model of partnership
between America and Africa
Ready access to clean energy should
Interview with Maria van der Hoeven,
be a right for all. Achieving this shared executive director of the International
goal means harvesting all the energy
Energy Agency
we have. The speech of Khalid Al-Falih,
Saudi Aramco’s CEO, in Daegu
02
Issue 02 - January 2014
Contents
3
CESI
Energy
Journal
Editorial
Salvatore Machì, Matteo Codazzi
TOP STORIES
4
Africa is on the move
Barack Obama
EDITORIAL COORDINATION
CESI - Paolo Mereghetti
Allea - Communication and Public Affairs
INTERVIEW
8
A fast-changing energy world
Interview with Maria van der Hoeven
EDITORIAL STAFF
Agnese Bertello
INDUSTRIES & COUNTRIES
CONTRIBUTORS
Roberta Campesato
Bruno Cova
Roberto Ferraroli
12
Khalid Al-Falih
FUTURES & TECHNOLOGIES
TRANSLATIONS
Eric Sylvers
The global energy village
18
HCPV: solar, growing from generation to generation
Roberta Campesato
ART DIRECTION
alleadesign - Gianluca Barbero
INDUSTRIES & COUNTRIES
22
Environmental and industrial culture
Roberto Ferraroli
FACE TO FACE
24
Strengthening the Brazilian energy backbone
Interview with Jose Alise Ragone Filho and Paulo Cesar Vaz Esmeraldo
EJ – ENERGY JOURNAL
CESI’S HOUSE ORGAN
Via Rubattino, 54
I-20134 Milan – Italy
[email protected]
www.cesi.it
IDEAS AND VISION
28
Integrating RES generation into the power system
Bruno Cova
REVIEW
32
Energy for future presidents
Richard Muller
Trust the Power of Experience
EJ can be browsed and directly downloaded at www.cesi.it
Editorial
Salvatore Machì - Chairman, CESI
Matteo Codazzi - CEO, CESI
Salvatore Machì - Chairman, CESI
Of all the massive changes
engulfing the world’s energy
markets perhaps none will have
a bigger effect on the way we live
and consume electricity than
the smart grid, which will turn
millions of consumers into “prosumers”, who will no longer be
just passive users of electricity
and will instead make informed
decisions about when, where and
how to either consume or produce
electricity. The pro-sumer will
change the dynamics for existing
industry players as he creates new
market opportunities that disrupt
existing business models and
spawn innovative ones.
The evolution of the smart grid,
an electrical grid that not only
distribute energy but also gathers
and acts on real-time information
to improve the efficiency and
the sustainability of the electric
system, dominated discussions at
the 22nd World Energy Congress
(WEC) at Daegu, Korea, in
October. While the smart grid
has intrigued energy insiders for
years, the conference – which is
held every three years and is the
most important meeting for the
energy sector – made clear that
the smart grid could become the
pillar supporting many future
energy solutions.
CESI, which has played and
will continue to play a role in
the evolution of the smart grid,
took part in the WEC sharing its
experiences and contributing to
several panel discussions among
key industry leaders.
The decision to hold the
conference in Korea (only twice
before has it been held in Asia,
the last time more than two
decades ago in Tokyo) was not
casual and instead highlights
the rising importance of Asia
in the world energy equation.
If we are to bring electricity
to hundreds of millions of new
consumers around the world,
including many in Asia, and not
to put excessive stress on the
environment thanks to a smooth
integration of renewables, then
the smart grid will have to play a
fundamental role.
At CESI we have been working
for years on smart grids projects
in Asia as well as in the Middle
East, Latin America and Europe
and have realized there is no
one magic recipe or a standard
business case for smart grids
or renewables integration
projects. How a customer’s
behavior will change with the
adoption of smart grids, what
regulatory incentives, which
cost efficiencies, which electrical
losses reduction, which power
generation costs: all of these
factors can influence a business
case and will vary significantly
across markets. What to do, then?
Planning your grid development
well in advance under different
renewables penetration scenarios
and running project-by-project
business cases are the two most
important piece of advice to be
given to a utility considering a
smart grid application.
This lack of “one-fits-all” solution
makes the smart grid future still
an unstable picture, but two
points emerge as key.
First of all, there must be a
stable and predictable regulatory
framework so those who intend
to invest in smart grids (which
returns are often long-term) can
bear a sustainable investment risk.
Second, for a smart grid to
work seamlessly, there must be
FOR A SMART GRID TO WORK SEAMLESSLY, INTEROPERABILITY
OF TECHNOLOGICAL COMPONENTS IS KEY AND THEREFORE IT IS
FUNDAMENTAL THAT INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS BE DEFINED
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
interoperability of technological
components and therefore it is
fundamental that international
standards be defined as soon as
possible.
Without these two pillars
the future of the smart grid
remains murky. CESI, through
both its experts and its testing
laboratories, is contributing
globally to make it happen.
Mr. Codazzi (CESI’s CEO)
moderating the Smart
Grid Panel at the 22nd
WEC, Daegu, Korea
In this second issue of EJ we
investigate smart grids as well
as many other important issues
facing the energy sector that will
define the future of our planet.
Enjoy the reading!
BACK TO CONTENTS
4 – Energy Journal – January 2014
| TOP STORIES |
Africa is
on the move
Barack Obama, President of the United States of America
FOR AFRICA THIS IS A MOMENT OF GREAT PROMISE. MANY OF THE FASTEST-GROWING
ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD ARE SITUATED THERE, BUT THE CONTINENT IS NOT
MOVING AS FAST AS IT COULD. IN HIS REMARKS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN,
SOUTH AFRICA, ON JUNE 30TH 2013, PRESIDENT OBAMA SHAPES A NEW MODEL OF
PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN AMERICA AND AFRICA – A PARTNERSHIP OF EQUALS THAT
FOCUSES ON AFRICA’S CAPACITY TO GROW – AND PRESENTS POWER AFRICA, A NEW U.S.
GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE TO DOUBLE ACCESS TO POWER IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA.
When Bobby Kennedy spoke at the University
of Cape Town in 1966, he expressed a powerful
idea. He said: “Each time a man stands up for
an ideal… he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope,
and crossing each other from a million different
centres of energy and daring, those ripples build
a current which can sweep down the mightiest
walls of oppression and resistance”.
Now the world is very different from that June
day in 1966. The idea of hope might have
seemed misplaced.
It would have seemed inconceivable to people
at that time that less than 50 years later, an
African-American president might address
an integrated audience at South Africa’s
oldest university, and that this same university
would have conferred an honorary degree to
a president, Nelson Mandela. It would have
seemed impossible.
That’s the power that comes from acting on
ideals. That’s what Mandela understood. But it
wasn’t just the giants of history who brought
about change. Think of the many millions of
acts of conscience that were part of it.
So Mandela’s life, like Kennedy’s life, the life
of all those who fought to bring about a new
South Africa or a more just America stand as a
challenge to your generation, because they tell
you that your voice matters, that your ideals,
your willingness to act on those ideals and your
choices can make a difference. If there is any
THE SAME TECHNOLOGY THAT ENABLES RECORD
PROFITS SOMETIMES MEANS WIDENING A CANYON
OF INEQUALITY
country in the world that shows the power of
human beings to effect change, this is the one.
And this is a moment of great promise. South
Africa is one of the world’s economic centres.
Many of the fastest-growing economies in the
world are here in Africa.
We know this progress, though, rests on a
fragile foundation. Across Africa, the same
institutions that should be the backbone of
democracy can all too often be infected with
the rot of corruption.
Power System Interconnector Project:
CESI’s project for connecting Ethiopia and Kenya
The same technology that enables record
profits sometimes means widening a canyon of
inequality. The same interconnection that binds
our fates makes all of Africa vulnerable to the
undertow of conflict.
So there is no question that Africa is on the
move, but it is not moving fast enough for the
child still languishing in poverty in forgotten
townships.
And that’s where the young people of Africa
come in. Just like previous generations, you
have got choices to make. You get to decide
where the future lies. Think about it – over 60
percent of Africans are under 35 years old.
WE ARE MOVING TO A NEW MODEL OF
PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN AMERICA AND AFRICA
– A PARTNERSHIP OF EQUALS
So demographics means young people are going
to be determining the fate of this continent and
this country. You have got time and numbers on
your side and you will be making decisions long
after politicians like me have left the scene. I have
travelled to Africa on this trip because my bet is
on the young people who are the heartbeat of
Africa’s story. I am betting on all of you.
America has been involved in Africa for
decades. But we are moving beyond the simple
provision of assistance, foreign aid, to a new
model of partnership between America and
Africa – a partnership of equals that focuses
on your capacity to solve problems, and
your capacity to grow. Our efforts focus on
three areas that shape our lives: opportunity,
democracy and peace.
So I am calling for America to up our game
when it comes to Africa. We are bringing
together business leaders from America and
Africa to deepen our engagement. We are going
to launch new trade missions and promote
investment from companies back home.
We will launch an effort in Addis Ababa to
renew the African Growth and Opportunity
Act to break down barriers to trade, and I will
discuss a new Trade Africa initiative to expand
our ties across the continent, because we want
to unleash the power of entrepreneurship and
markets to create opportunity here in Africa.
And so the question we have been asking
ourselves is: what will it take to empower
individual Africans?
For one thing, we believe that countries have
to have the power to feed themselves. Through
a new alliance of governments and the private
sector, we are investing billions of dollars in
agriculture.
We believe that countries have to have the
power to prevent illness and care for the sick.
And we believe that nations must have the
power to connect their people to the promise of
the 21st century.
Access to electricity is fundamental to
opportunity in this age. I am proud to announce
a new initiative – Power Africa – to double
access to power in Sub-Saharan Africa,
starting with an investment of $7 billion in U.S.
Government resources.
| Power Africa |
Power Africa is the new
U.S. Government initiative
that addresses one of the
most pressing challenges
to sustainable economic
growth and development
in sub-Saharan Africa: the
access to electrical power.
Power Africa will build on
Africa’s enormous power
potential, including new
discoveries of vast reserves
of oil and gas, and the
potential to develop clean
geothermal, hydro, wind
and solar energy. It will
help countries develop
newly-discovered resources
responsibly, build out
power generation and
transmission, and expand
the reach of mini-grid and
off-grid solutions.
According to the
International Energy
Agency, sub-Saharan Africa
will require more than $300
billion in investment to
achieve universal electricity
access by 2030. Only with
greater private sector
investment can the promise
of Power Africa be realized.
With an initial set of six
partner countries in its first
phase, Power Africa will
add more than 10,000
megawatts of cleaner, more
efficient electricity generation
capacity. It will increase
electricity access by at least
20 million new households
and commercial entities
with on-grid, mini-grid, and
off-grid solutions. And it will
enhance energy resource
management capabilities,
allowing partner countries
to meet their critical energy
needs and achieve greater
energy security.
The United States and its
partners will work with
an initial set of Power
Africa partner countries,
including Ethiopia, Ghana,
Kenya, Liberia, Nigeria,
and Tanzania. Power Africa
will also partner with
Uganda and Mozambique
on responsible oil and gas
resources management.
Power Africa will bring
to bear a wide range of
U.S. government tools
to support investment
in Africa’s energy sector.
From policy and regulatory
best practices, to prefeasibility support and
capacity building, to
long-term financing,
insurance, guarantees,
credit enhancements
and technical assistance
Power Africa will provide
coordinated support to help
African partners expand
their generation capacity
and access.
The United States will
commit more than
$7 billion in financial
support over the next five
years to this effort. Power
Africa will also leverage
private sector investments,
beginning with more
than $9 billion in initial
commitments from private
sector partners to support
the development of more
than 8,000 megawatts of
new electricity generation
in sub-Saharan Africa.
In spite of a still notable
gap, the African continent
seems to be launched into
a progressive recovery
toward the world’s most
developed economies.
This approaching strategy
necessarily passes through
the infrastructuring of the
electrical system and the
adoption of innovative and
efficient platforms for the
resources integration.
In this context, the
challenging Power System
Interconnector Project is
aimed at the realization
of the greatest African
energy highway, that will
allow the transmission of
hydroelectric energy from
Ethiopia to Kenya thanks to
So this is America’s vision: a partnership with
Africa that unleashes growth, and the potential
of every citizen, not just a few at the very top.
And this is achievable.
But history tells us that true progress is only
possible where governments exist to serve their
people, and not the other way around.
The good news is that this example is getting
attention across the continent.
But this work is not complete – we all know
that. Not in those countries where leaders enrich
themselves with impunity; not in communities
where you can’t start a business, or go to
school, or get a house without paying a bribe to
somebody. These things have to change.
And they have to change not just because such
corruption is immoral, but it is also a matter of
self-interest and economics. Governments that
respect the rights of their citizens and abide
by the rule of law do better, grow faster, draw
more investment than those who don’t. That is
just a fact.
These are things that America stands for – not
perfectly – but that is what we stand for, and
that is what my administration stands for.
We don’t tell people who their leaders should
be, but we do stand up with those who support
the principles that lead to a better life.
And that is why we are interested in investing
not in strongmen, but in strong institutions:
independent judiciaries that can enforce the
rule of law; honest police forces that can
protect the peoples’ interests instead of their
own; an open government that can bring
transparency and accountability.
the HVDC technology.
With 1,040 km and 500
kV HVDC bipolar overhead
transmission lines, the new
infrastructure will integrate
the electricity markets of
the East African Power Pool
through the interconnection
of Ethiopia and Kenya
power systems. In particular,
this interconnection will
increase the supply of
power and reduce the
cost of electricity in Kenya,
whilst, on the other hand,
generating additional
revenues for Ethiopia
through the export of
electricity to Kenya.
The Owner’s Engineering of
the project – design, supply,
installation on site, testing
and commissioning – has
been awarded to CESI
by the Ethiopian Electric
Power Corporation (EEPCO)
and the Kenya Electricity
Transmission Company
(KETRACO), after an
international tender. CESI’s
outstanding list of references
for similar recent projects
– including Saudi Arabia,
Jordan and Brazil – clearly
made the difference in
winning the tender. CESI has
been engaged in Consortium
with the international
companies Lahmeyer
International and Elc.
The infrastructure is
expected to be finalized
by the end of 2016 and is
worth about 12 million euro.
And, yes, that is why we stand up for civil
society – for journalists and NGOs, and
community organisers and activists – who give
people a voice. And that’s why we support
societies that empower women – because no
country will reach its potential unless it draws
on the talents of our wives and our mothers,
and our sisters and our daughters.
I AM PROUD TO ANNOUNCE A NEW INITIATIVE –
POWER AFRICA – TO DOUBLE ACCESS TO POWER
IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
I know that there are some in Africa who hear
me say these things say that is intrusive. Why
are you meddling? I know there are those
who argue that ideas like democracy and
transparency are somehow Western exports. I
disagree.
Those in power who make those arguments are
usually trying to distract people from their own
abuses. Sometimes, they are the same people
who behind closed doors are willing to sell out
their own country’s resource to foreign interests,
just so long as they get a cut.
This text is the result of an accurate selection extracted
from Barack Obama’s speech at the University of Cape
Town, South Africa (June 2013).
The selection is based on the official transcription, as
published on the White House’s website.
BACK TO CONTENTS
| INTERVIEW |
A fast-changing
energy world
Interview with Ms Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency
IN NOVEMBER 2013, THE IEA PUBLISHED ITS LAST WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK. THE
REPORT UNDERLINES HOW MANY OF THE LONG-HELD TENETS OF THE ENERGY SECTOR
ARE BEING REWRITTEN WHILE AT THE SAME TIME NEW KEY PLAYERS ARE COMING
TO THE FORE. IN THIS INTERVIEW, MS. MARIA VAN DER HOEVEN, IEA’S EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR, FOCUSES ON THE IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
AND ENERGY PRICES AS A KEY FACTOR OF COMPETITIVENESS.
In WEO 2013, IEA underlined the problem
of stubbornly high energy prices –
particularly oil prices – and its influence
on economic growth and competitiveness.
What factors determined this
unprecedented situation and how do
you think governments and international
organisations should react?
As I said at the launch of the World Energy
Outlook 2013 in London in November, it is now
more than five years after the onset of the global
financial crisis, yet the recovery remains fragile;
for many consumers and businesses, energy
prices remain stubbornly high. Alarmingly, oil
prices have averaged over $110/barrel since
2011. There has also been a substantial widening
of the gap between natural gas prices in the
United States, Europe and Asia.
Electricity price differentials are also large
between regions.
In the central scenario of the World Energy
Outlook, the difference in regional natural
gas and electricity prices narrows somewhat
but remains pronounced. These energy price
disparities impact industrial competitiveness.
The United States, which currently has relatively
low energy prices, has seen a slight increase in
its share of global exports of energy-intensive
goods, providing the clearest indication of the
link between relatively low energy prices and
the industrial outlook. Conversely, the shares
of the European Union and Japan both are
forecast to decline relative to current levels.
High energy prices do not have to result in
onerous energy costs for end users or the
national economy.
Improvements in energy efficiency play
a crucial role in mitigating high energy
costs. Policy makers can also boost energy
competitiveness by supporting indigenous
sources of energy supply as well as by
increasing competition in wholesale and retail
energy markets.
The efficiency argument also applies to oil
prices – which, unlike gas and electricity – are
much more uniform around the world. It may
seem obvious, but a sure way to halve your
bill for petrol is to double the fuel economy of
your vehicle.
As WEO 2013 highlights, two-thirds of the
economic potential for energy efficiency
will remain untapped in 2035. What
concrete strategies could governments
and industries implement to enhance
efficiency?
We note in WEO 2013 that a renewed focus
on energy efficiency is taking hold and is set
to deliver benefits that extend well beyond
improvements and competitiveness. But
the potential for energy efficiency is still far
from exhausted: two-thirds of the economic
potential of energy efficiency is set to remain
untapped in WEO 2013 central scenario.
Action is needed to break down barriers to
investment in energy efficiency.
There are many avenues available: actions
to renovate the building stock and to ensure
that new buildings require less energy to heat
or cool, to strengthen standards for electrical
appliances, to improve fuel-efficiency in
vehicles or to encourage the application of
technologies that require less fuel to produce
electricity.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS STILL FAR
FROM EXHAUSTED: TWO-THIRDS OF THE ECONOMIC
POTENTIAL OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS SET TO REMAIN
UNTAPPED IN THE WEO 2013 CENTRAL SCENARIO
Another avenue is phasing out fossil-fuel
subsidies, which we estimate rose to $544
billion worldwide in 2012. Let me give just
one example of how fossil-fuel subsidies can
undermine the potential for energy efficiency:
in the Middle East, where gasoline prices
are abnormally low due in part to fossil-fuel
subsidies, an investment in a hybrid car is
recovered through lower fuel costs only after
18 years. In Europe, it takes four years.
Most interesting renewables projects
are intercontinental. Having a solid
technology that allows for the transport
of energy from where it has been
produced to where it will be consumed
is fundamental so being able to cover
very long distances and overcome very
difficult environmental conditions is key.
But defining and sharing international
frameworks – both technological,
commercial and political – also seems
important.
From this point of view what has already
be done and what should we do?
I’m not sure we agree with your premise.
Most attractive renewable energy project
remain at the continental or the national scale.
In the long-term, thanks to high-voltage,
direct-current transmission lines, it will be
possible to transport electricity for thousands
of kilometres, and this will require some kind
of co-ordination of market standards and
operational rules.
Brazil will certainly become one of most
important energy producers in the next
few years. How do you think this “new
entry” will change the energy market?
Could Brazil be considered a model for
other developing countries, especially
regarding its policy of granting its people
access to modern energy and its “Energy
for all” programme?
ALL EMERGING ECONOMIES COULD BENEFIT FROM
A CLOSE LOOK AT THE DISTINCTIVE WAY IN WHICH
BRAZIL IS MEETING ITS ENERGY NEEDS
Brazil is set to play a central role in meeting the
world’s oil needs through to 2035, accounting
for a third of the net growth in global supply.
Such an increase in supply is heavily dependent
on highly complex and capital-intensive
deep-water developments, and Brazil is set to
consolidate its position as the global leader
in offshore production. A pivotal factor in
shaping Brazil’s energy outlook will be the
country’s success in maintaining high levels of
investment, with $90 billion needed per year
to 2035. Almost two-thirds of this is required
in the oil sector and more than a quarter to
expand power generation and the transmission
network.
As for whether Brazil may be a model for other
emerging economies looking to develop their
energy sectors, the Latin American country
certainly boasts some enviable features. Its
energy sector remains one of the least carbonintensive in the world thanks to its large
dependence on renewable sources of energy.
And, as you say, it has been very successful
in bringing modern energy services to the
population; more than 99% of the Brazilian
population now has access to electricity. Not
every country has the range and scale of
natural resources that Brazil has, but I think
that all emerging economies could benefit
from a close look at the distinctive way in
which Brazil is meeting its energy needs,
as well as the challenges that it faces as it
tries to reconcile energy and environmental
objectives.
BACK TO CONTENTS
| INDUSTRIES & COUNTRIES |
The global
energy village
Khalid Al-Falih, Chief Executive Officer of Saudi Aramco
READY ACCESS TO CLEAN ENERGY SHOULD BE A RIGHT FOR ALL: THIS IS THE
INSPIRATIONAL CHALLENGE THE ENERGY SECTOR MUST FACE. ACHIEVING THIS SHARED
GOAL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONLY HARVESTING ALL THE ENERGY WE HAVE: EVERY
DIFFERENT SOURCE WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE LONG TERM. IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY
VILLAGE, LEARNING TO COLLABORATE WILL BE FUNDAMENTAL.
Today, in the world, less than one-third of the
world’s 7 billion people consume more than
two-thirds of its primary energy supplies.
The other five billion people have varying
degrees of access to supplies of modern
energy, with some trapped in extreme energy
poverty. But by 2050, a total of 9 billion people
will aspire to a prosperous life.
That’s why ready access to clean energy will be
a right for all, not a privilege for a few.
That is the inspirational challenge the world
faces and the test we must pass as an industry.
IN ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION WE ARE REPLACING
INEFFICIENT POWER PLANTS AND INCREASINGLY
MOVING THEM TO GAS
As well as two billion additional people, the
global economy will be three or hopefully
even four times larger by 2050.
More people and affluence mean more mobility,
more urbanization, and more demand for
durable and consumable goods. That in turn
will drive consumption for fuels, electricity, and
chemical feedstocks; and therefore energy. But
it is not preordained that demand has to rise to
unsustainable levels, even if we provide everyone
with sufficient energy. Improved energy intensity
is our low hanging fruit and can deliver similar
economic growth using considerably less energy.
Setting aggressive targets on efficiency and
demand management could dramatically reduce
energy consumption while enabling wider access
to energy, saving trillions of dollars, conserving
natural resources, and improving environmental
performance.
Improving efficiency in both energy conversion
and widespread end-use applications is
challenging: many nations have already taken
bold steps, and Saudi Arabia is among them.
The Government has launched major initiatives
to significantly improve the efficiency of energy
end-use in a range of sectors like industry,
transportation, and buildings. In electric power
generation we are replacing inefficient power
plants and increasingly moving them to gas.
But even assuming the world lowers its future
energy intensity to an optimal level, future
demand will be much higher than it is today.
Which begs the question: how are we going to
supply that demand? To begin with, the earth
is blessed with a colossal endowment of fossil
energy. Take the oil industry. We have already
produced about 1.3 trillion barrels, yet proven
reserves have never come down. Instead, current
proven reserves of 1.6 trillion barrels, which
equate to a half-century of global oil production
at current rates, are at their highest level ever.
Khalid Al-Falih,
Chief Executive Officer
of Saudi Aramco
And these numbers will continue to rise with
increased exploration and improved recovery.
THE U.S. SHALE REVOLUTION WILL SPREAD FAR
AND WIDE, AS MANY OTHER AREAS OF THE WORLD
APPEAR TO HOLD ENORMOUS UNCONVENTIONAL
So resources are, in fact, abundant: looking
at the earth’s total endowment of liquid fuels,
we are blessed with about 14 trillion barrels
of original resources-in-place. This is divided
about equally between conventional and
unconventional resources – tight oil, extra
heavy liquids, bitumen, and oil shale. Current
proven reserves have a lot of room to grow.
Such reserves will be necessary to sustain rising
long-term oil demand.
In fact, demand for oil in absolute terms is
likely to rise by about 20 MMBD during the
next two decades. That’s equal to the current
production of the world’s two largest oil
producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, combined!
Likewise, the world’s current gas reserves
of more than 7,000 trillion cubic feet have
enormous room to grow, considering that the
unconventional gas revolution has expanded the
world’s technically recoverable gas resources to
the range of 30,000 tcf. If we could economically
recover them, they could meet global gas
demand at current rates for more than 250 years!
U.S. shale revolution will spread far and wide,
as many other areas of the world appear to
hold enormous unconventional potential.
The rush is definitely on. Only two years after
launching our unconventional gas program in
the frontier Northern Region, we are ready to
commit gas for the development of a 1,000
megawatt power plant, which will feed a
massive phosphate mining and manufacturing
center, and drive that region’s development and
prosperity. Oil and gas are the most efficient,
convenient, economic, and reliable energy
sources the world has ever known. And they will
undoubtedly continue to be the crown jewels of
world energy supplies well into the future.
Yet, despite their abundance, and because
they are the crown jewels, we should use
them prudently, efficiently, and more cleanly
to secure our energy future. And we do that
by leveraging them in combination with
other sources like nuclear, hydro, coal, and
renewables which will play an increasingly
important, complementary role.
Starting with nuclear, its prospects have
unfortunately been clouded by Fukushima.
However, the inevitable massive growth in
demand for electricity means that nuclear will
still form a significant part of the electricity
generation mix in the coming decades. Naturally,
legitimate concerns about nuclear safety and
the issue of spent fuel disposal need to be
addressed. Turning to coal – and considering
its abundance and lower costs – I believe it will
always have a role in meeting energy demand
as long as we invest in far-reaching technologies
that will improve efficiency and environmental
performance. However, coal will face stiff
competition from ever more abundant supplies
of natural gas, especially when considering that
coal’s carbon emissions in power generation are
at least twice that of gas.
On top of these core energy sources,
renewables will also have a role, although
technical and economic hurdles remain in the
way of their rapid deployment. Furthermore,
the existing global energy system is massive,
and it will take time to transform, even as
alternatives and renewables come on-stream.
But progress is being made, costs are coming
down, and the long-term role of alternatives
and renewables is indisputable. These sources
should not be seen as competitors or displacers
of demand. In Saudi Arabia, in fact, our vision
is to turn the Kingdom into a global solar hub,
and we are investing heavily in the research,
development, and utilization of solar energy.
However, that doesn’t mean the world can
afford to provide costly subsidies on an
ongoing basis at the expense of economic
development and fiscal imperatives. Rather,
the appropriate energy mix should be left to
the market and technology to determine.
Meeting our 2050 energy goals will be easier
said than done. There are 4 key pre-requisites
for success.
First, we need progressive, yet pragmatic and
plausible, global energy policies.
Since all energy sources will be required, we
shouldn’t prematurely pick winners and losers,
selectively subsidize, set unworkable targets, or
apply unrealistic regulatory and fiscal regimes.
Instead, we should invest in technologies and
let them mature to offer confidence in largescale deployment and, let me stress again,
allow markets to work.
The second pre-requisite is that adequate,
timely, and long-term investments must be
made in all energy sources to ensure sufficient
supplies are safely and reliably produced
and delivered to new consumers. In just the
next two decades, total energy investment is
estimated to be in the range of $40 trillion.
These investment levels are staggering and, to
fund them continuously, projects will need to
be profitable and bankable.
The third pre-requisite is game-changing, pacesetting R&D and technology.
This leads to the last pre-requisite:
collaboration. Let’s not jeopardize our chance
to make history by working at cross-purposes.
We must avoid this at all costs. Because, we
need all energy sources, all industry players,
all governments, all academic and research
institutions, and all energy bodies, working
together in the global energy village.
OIL AND GAS ARE THE MOST EFFICIENT AND
RELIABLE ENERGY SOURCES THE WORLD HAS EVER
KNOWN. YET, WE SHOULD USE THEM PRUDENTLY,
EFFICIENTLY, AND MORE CLEANLY TO SECURE OUR
ENERGY FUTURE
Providing adequate, affordable, and acceptable
energy to 9 billion people will be the challenge
of our lives, and of those who will follow in
our footsteps. But it also presents us all with
the most inspirational opportunity.
This text is the result of an accurate selection extracted
from Mr. Al-Falih’s speech at the 22nd World Energy
Congress in Daegu (October 201ß3).
The selection is based on the official transcription, as
published on the event’s website.
BACK TO CONTENTS
On 16 April 1954, The New York Times
opened with a curious headline: “A huge
amount of power will be supplied by a battery
that uses the main ingredients of sand.”
The article recounts in detail the discovery of
Chapin, Fuller and Pearson, scientists at the
Bell Telephone Laboratories who were able
to produce a device capable of converting
6% of sunlight into electricity. It was the
first photovoltaic device and was made of
crystalline silicon. The news was welcomed as
the beginning of a new highly promising age.
| FUTURES & TECHNOLOGIES |
HCPV: solar, growing
from generation
to generation
Roberta Campesato, Head of Solar Cells Laboratories,
Testing & Certification Division, CESI
THE FIRST PHOTOVOLTAIC DEVICE WAS DEVELOPED BACK IN THE 1950S. THE NEW
YORK TIMES SPOKE OF THE ADVENT OF A NEW ERA, BUT AFTER SIXTY YEARS THE
CONTRIBUTION OF SOLAR ENERGY WORLDWIDE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW. THANKS
TO TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH, THERE IS NOW A SYSTEM THAT CONTAINS COSTS WHILE
INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF THE CELLS. TODAY HCPV COMBINES THE RESULTS
OF SPACE RESEARCH ONTO NEXT-GENERATION DEVICES WITH AN APPROACH THAT
ALLOWS FOR LESS CONSUMPTION OF PRECIOUS MATERIALS.
However, the high costs and the difficulty
of obtaining significant yields confined the
use of the first generation cells for a long
time to space applications. Photovoltaics
quickly became the norm in space, where the
relationship between energy and weight was
more favourable.
Still today it is the first choice when energy is
needed for services on a spacecraft. It was,
instead, the events of the 1970s, beginning
with the 1973 oil embargo, that forced
researchers and industry around the world
towards a greater commitment to developing
photovoltaic technology that could give good
results also in terrestrial applications.
The first generation of solar cells was born in
space, but progress on the ground remained
slow.
Today, crystalline silicon cells account for 80%
of the world photovoltaic market.
Forty years of history give some assurances
to investors, who tend to prefer low risks and
safe returns, but this technology has now
reached its technological limits and its further
development is only possible through a drastic
reduction in production costs.
The second generation, which is based on
the use of thin film, makes it possible to
reduce the production costs of the modules,
but it does not improve cell efficiency and is
not in fact a step forward. While commercial
crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells reach a
conversion efficiency of up to 20%, for thin
film solar cells it is about 12-15%.
The third generation of cells will, it is hoped,
finally allow photovoltaic technology to make
a real leap forward, making it possible for it to
get established and spread significantly thanks
to increased conversion efficiency.
A leap forward
The basic idea of the new generation devices
was already known in the 1960s and consists
of realising structures composed of several
elementary cells, each of which is optimized
to convert a well-defined portion of the solar
spectrum. These different cells get “stacked”
on top of each other.
Although the principle has been known for a
long time, more than forty years of technological
development and basic research were necessary
to make the implementation possible.
The availability of metal organic chemical
vapour deposition (MOCVD) facilities that
allow real band-gap engineering on the
materials used to make the device, have made
it possible for these devices to be built since
the mid-1990s. In other words, this technique
made it possible to implement accurate
controls, even at the atomic layers level, of the
crystalline quality of the materials.
THIRD GENERATION CELLS WILL ALLOW
PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY TO MAKE A
LEAP FORWARD, MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR IT TO GET
ESTABLISHED AND SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY
In the aerospace industry these new cells are
now well established and have effectively
overtaken the first generation. On Earth, they
are used in high concentration photovoltaics
(HCPV). In other words, the concentration
of light through lenses or mirrors makes it
possible to produce the same amount of
energy from a smaller area of multi-junction
cells. The technique of concentrating solar
radiation on smaller cells makes it possible to
reach efficiencies well above 40%.
How an HCPV system works
The solar cell is definitely the heart of HCPV in
that its conversion efficiency largely determines
the performance of the entire system and
ultimately the cost of the energy produced.
At the same time an HCPV system is made up
of countless components. As mentioned, a
number of HCPV cells mounted upon receivers
connected to focusing optics (lens or mirror)
make up an HCPV module.
Several modules connected together are
mounted on a dual-axis tracking system that
is essential for allowing the alignment of the
optical axis of the plane with the sun.
| From space to Earth and back again |
CESI has more than 30
years of experience in
producing and selling high
efficiency multi junction
solar cells based on III-V
compound semiconductors
such as Gallium Arsenide
(GaAs) and Indium
Gallium Phosphide (InGaP)
deposited on Germanium
(Ge) substrates.
The first solar cells
to be developed and
manufactured more than 30
years ago were GaAs single
junctions structures.
More recently, CESI has
developed, optimized and
qualified better performing
InGaP/InGaAs/Ge triple
junctions solar cells. This
device has been in the
production stage for more
than five years obtaining
30% efficiencies in the
space environment. Since
the first GaAs solar cells
that flew in space in 1984
on board of an European
Space Agency calibration
experiment, CESI solar cells
powered more than 60
satellites of 20 different
Countries experiencing
100% success.
demonstrated to reach 40%
of conversion efficiency.
The terrestrial application
of such high efficiency
solar cells is economically
convenient in high
concentration photovoltaic
systems (HCPV). In
this application, CESI’s
triple junction solar cells
CESI is currently effectively
developing quadruple
junction cells within the
ESA programs aiming at
objectives towards 35%
efficiency in space and
45% efficiency in terrestrial
concentration applications.
Reduce costs, increase efficiency
According to the latest Solar Energy Report
published by MIP in April 2013, while the cost
of capital of a turnkey HCPV plant is higher
than competing PV Technologies, its higher
efficiency already makes it more competitive on
a $/kwh basis for generating energy in areas
with large amounts of direct sunlight (DIN > 6).
Reducing costs and improving performance are
the goals that technological innovation must try
to achieve to make HCPV highly competitive,
not only with the other photovoltaic
technologies, but also with other renewable
and traditional sources of energy. Industry
studies have shown that it is still possible to
reduce the overall cost of an HCPV system by
about 50% compared with the cost in 2012.
Bankability is another key aspect that must be
taken into consideration for HCPV technology
to be successful. That is to say the possibility for
investors to have access to bank loans so they
can build the plants. Banks play a central role
in the diffusion of every new technology and
even more so when the technology requires big
plants for which large investments are necessary.
The role of the banking system
Photovoltaics chance of competing in the
energy market depends largely on whether
scientific research can transform this
technology’s potential into reality.
It is a young technology that still has very
little medium or long-term data records and a
regulatory “vacuum” that only in recent years
has begun to be addressed. The future of
high-concentration solar will ultimately depend
on the approval of the banking and financial
system. The faster the bankability issue of this
technology is addressed the sooner we will be
able to see the effects in terms of market share.
DNI > 6
Source: solargis.info
From a technological point of view, the dual
axis tracking system is the most sensitive part
of an HCPV system. Since the optical systems
mounted on the receivers can concentrate only
direct light (direct normal irradiation, DNI),
the greater the concentration factor for which
the system is designed the more accurate the
tracking of the solar source must be.
REDUCING COSTS AND IMPROVING PERFORMANCE
ARE THE GOALS THAT TECHNOLOGICAL
INNOVATION MUST TRY TO ACHIEVE TO MAKE HCPV
HIGHLY COMPETITIVE
Compared with a first or second generation
system, HCPV technology has several
important advantages. The characteristics
of HCPV make it the best photovoltaic
technology for the areas of the globe with
high solar irradiation and temperature. The
power generated (and therefore the energy
produced) is correlated to the intensity of the
direct sunlight; this power is little influenced
by high temperatures, which are more likely
to come during the hours of maximum
sunlight.
Multi- junction cells, combined with the
HCPV technology, are the best and more costeffective solution for developing International
projects that aim to exploit solar energy in
DNI regions such as North Africa, Chile, India,
China and the Mille East.
The modularity of the system makes it quick
and easy to build electricity generation
facilities, which can be scaled up as needed
also in areas with no access to water.
BACK TO CONTENTS
| INDUSTRIES & COUNTRIES |
Environmental
and industrial culture
Roberto Ferraroli, Director Engineering & Environment, ISMES Division, CESI
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IS OUR COMMITMENT. TODAY THE MOST ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL
COMPANIES HAVE LONG BEEN AWARE OF THE NEED FOR PROPER ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT.
“ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING” IS THE TOOL FOR ENSURING THAT THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PERFORMANCE OF AN INDUSTRIAL PLANT MEETS THE REQUIREMENTS SET BY LAW. MOREOVER,
IT ALLOWS FOR A DETAILED CONTROL OF THE DIFFERENT STAGES AND CAN THEREFORE LEAD TO
INCREASED OPTIMISATION AND EFFICIENCIES OF THE INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES.
| Monitor the environmental impact.
Increase the social acceptability of the industrial plant |
Proper planning and
implementation of
environmental monitoring
can help a plant gain local
and national acceptance.
The analysis of surveys
done both inside and
outside the plant makes it
possible to give the public
as well as local institutions
a scientifically reliable,
detailed picture of the
environmental impact (for
example on the water and
atmosphere) and the plant’s
contribution within that
context.
With monitoring one can
demonstrate whether (and
how) the legal requirements
are met, clarify how much
pollution the plant will
cause, and compare it with
other sources of pollution
while identifying what
caused critical situations.
This helps avoid disputes
between companies and
with the government.
In other cases,
of air emissions showed the
environmental performance
of the plant and guided
actions aimed at optimising
combustion conditions
while minimising the use of
raw materials. This creates
In recent decades there has been increased
awareness of the impact economic
development has on the environment.
Today people and businesses as well
as national and international political
institutions have clearly realised that
development must be sustainable. According
to the European Commission’s definition,
sustainable development is development
that meets the needs of current generations
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.
It’s a definition that blends together present
and future generations and places on us the
responsibility to preserve the planet and its
incredible wealth for those who will come
after us. This vision of progress integrates
immediate and long-term goals on a local
and global level. It sees technological, social,
economic and environmental issues as
inseparable and interdependent components
of human progress.
For these reasons, today the industrial sector,
a key player in the creation of a country’s
economic wealth, is in the throes of a radical
process of redefining its actions, strategies and
modus operandi.
The most advanced industrial companies
have long been aware of the need for
proper environmental management that
aims to achieve development that is socially
responsible and sustainable.
an economic advantage
and can be important
in preventing potential
litigation.
CESI has over the years
developed an assessment
methodology that
once supplemented by
in the plant and in the
surrounding environment
makes it possible to solve
complex problems that
for the most part have
arisen due to a lack of clear
communications and the
sharing of the technicalscientific method being
used.
In order to prevent, reduce and where possible
eliminate pollution arising from industrial
activities – in accordance with the principle
“polluter pays principle” – the European Union
over time has issued a series of directives
aimed at ensuring prudent management of
natural resources and significantly reducing the
impact of industrial activity on the surrounding
environment.
MONITORING CAN HELP TO EMBED A TRUE
ENVIRONMENTAL CULTURE WITHIN THE COMPANY
CULTURE
The normative evolution: from a sectorspecific to an integrated approach
Over the years, legislation has undergone
significant changes as it increasingly moves
towards an integrated assessment of the
consequences of industry on the environment.
Having different approaches to control air, water
and soil emissions may encourage the transfer
of pollution from one part of the environment to
another thus failing to protect the environment
as a whole. For this reason, the current reference
standard – the IPPC Directive (Integrated Pollution
Prevention and Control) – establishes the need to
assess the environmental impact of a particular
industrial activity through an integrated approach
that is able to evaluate air, water and soil
emissions, waste management, energy efficiency
and accident prevention.
From this general principle arise a number
of concrete requirements and obligations
businesses must follow. In particular, the
European Union established an authorisation
procedure (Integrated Environmental
Authorisation) that defines the minimum
requirements that must be met, above all
in terms of emissions, to be able to start a
business in a particular environmental setting.
To obtain authorisation, the operator must
demonstrate through rigorous documentation
that the system complies with all the
requirements of the law.
The IEA also requires that a monitoring and
control plan be put in place that makes
clear its methodologies, frequency of
measurement and evaluation procedures.
ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING CAN LEAD TO
INCREASED OPTIMISATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL
PROCESSES
While it is fundamental that industrial activity
be required to follow precise environmental
criteria from the beginning, for the European
Union it is equally important that the
attention to these criteria remain constant
during a plant’s life cycle.
Environmental monitoring: a tool for
competitiveness
Environmental monitoring is, therefore, the
tool for demonstrating that the environmental
performance of an industrial plant meets the
requirements set by law.
Fundamental, from this point of view, is the
reliability of the data gathered. This reliability
can only be ensured if there are structures in
place with the necessary skills and equipment
as well as recognised and up-to-date
methodologies and procedures to guarantee
an accredited quality control system.
Implementing the monitoring and control
plan requires a specific set of workers and
a flexible operating structure. It requires
equipment, instrumentation and high-tech
laboratories that make it possible to perform
a wide variety of tests in differing sectors
and disciplines (chemistry, physics, biology,
engineering, statistics, electronics, plant
design, etc.). It requires the ability to integrate
successfully the necessary specialist skills and
experiences with the aim of finding effective
solutions to problems and achieving efficient
project management.
| Environmental emergencies: strategies for acting quickly and effectively |
Taking action immediately
after an environmental
emergency occurs is
essential. Being able to
enact immediate measures
dodges authorisation
problems and can help
avoid having to sustain
onerous costs to restore
the damaged environment.
CESI, which has managed
the environmental
monitoring for some major
Italian companies, has on
several occasions been
called upon to manage
crisis situations and has
developed an efficient and
rapid strategy for resolving
emergencies.
Thanks to the skills, facilities
and laboratories at its
disposal, CESI can act in very
diverse industrial sectors.
It has a series of best
practices that have increased
through the years.
A few examples
One of the cases followed
by CESI involved a
utility. Following a spill
of petroleum products
with the resulting risk of
potential contamination
of the soil and aquifer,
emergency action was
needed to take water and
soil samples for a thorough
chemical analysis. Being
able to verify very quickly
the environmental impact
on the area helped contain
the magnitude and extent
of the event. The quick
response also made it
possible to put in place the
necessary containment and
plan clean-up measures.
All these factors proved
decisive during the ensuing
discussion with the
authorities.
Another case study focused
on the alleged effects
on coastal erosion of an
industrial plant’s discharge
of water.
The analysis of historical
data and a series of
bathymetric surveys
of the coastal waters
near the industrial area
made it possible through
mathematical modelling
to reconstruct the
phenomena that caused
the environmental damage,
evaluate the actual impact
and create a forecast for its
possible evolution.
Ferrari’s factory
Courtesy of Ferrari
Monitoring can help to embed a true
environmental culture within the company
culture. For this to happen, however, people
within the company must understand that
beyond the need to comply with a legal
obligation there is a real value to accurate and
constant monitoring.
This makes it possible to identify scenarios for
how pollution might evolve, to consider not
only the plant, but the vast area around it. This
in turn allows for the plant’s contribution to
be compared with other possible sources of
energy in the area.
Moreover, this tool allows for a detailed control
of the different stages of processing and can
therefore lead to increased optimisation of the
industrial processes.
Performing serious environmental monitoring
can help companies become more efficient
(optimising the use of natural resources and
energy while minimising inefficiencies and
waste), reducing costs thereby creating a
potential competitive advantage.
| Italian style |
“The Made in Italy
Architecture’’ show
closed at the end of
October 2013 at the Abu
Dhabi Emirates Palace.
Organised by Italy’s IN/
ARCH, the National
Architecture Institute, the
exhibit documented the
work of Italian studios
BACK TO CONTENTS
whose design philosophy
focuses on sensitivity to
the environment and
presented many different
projects designed for Italian
industry and factories
(such as Ferrari, iGuzzini,
Technogym, Benetton,
Eataly and Gucci). For
these Italian companies,
the sustainability of
manufacturing processes
and energy efficiency are
values to be promoted and
concretely supported with
strategic industrial choices.
The show was the
centrepiece of the Italy
pavilion at the 2012
Architecture Biennale in
Venice.
| FACE TO FACE |
Strengthening
the Brazilian energy
backbone
Interview with Jose Alise Ragone Filho, Chief Executive Officer of Taesa,
and Paulo Cesar Vaz Esmeraldo, Managing Director CESI do Brasil
BRAZIL’S ENERGY SECTOR IS ONE OF THE LEAST CARBON-INTENSIVE IN THE WORLD.
HYDROPOWER IS ITS BACKBONE. STRENGTHENING ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IS
FUNDAMENTAL FOR CONFRONTING THE COUNTRY’S GROWING ENERGY DEMAND AND
GRANTING UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY.
J. A. Ragone Filho
P. C. V. Esmeraldo
The Belo Monte Dam will be the thirdlargest dam in the world measured by
energy production. The technological
standards used in this project (safety,
efficiency, environmental protection,
HVDC transmission line…) will become a
reference point worldwide.
What are the most innovative
characteristics of the project?
Jose Aloise Ragone Filho
The Belo Monte project was born in the
seventies. The original conception suffered
through a lot of changes so as to respect
Brazilian environmental rules. Belo Monte
will be the only hydro plant on the Xingu
River and the project worked to minimise
intervention on the course of the Xingu River
in order to preserve local flora and fauna and
indigenous areas.
Two types of turbines will be used in different
locations to maximise the use of water.
The HVDC system will be one of the largest in
the world, with a very high level of voltage (±
800 kV) and a transmission capacity of 4,000
MW in its first stage.
Paulo Cesar Vaz Esmeraldo
Regarding the power plant itself the most
innovative aspects are those related to the
environment. The design of the plant took
into consideration a desire to have the least
possible impact on the environment by
eliminating big reservoirs.
Of course, these measures dictate the amount
of energy that will be produced, but the
environment will be protected because the
flooded areas will not exceed the land that is
covered by water during the wet season.
I guess the environmentalists are happier
with this new design, even considering the
indigenous question.
| Belo Monte Dam: a strategic project for Brazil’s economic growth |
To integrate the high amount of energy,
approximately 8,000 MW, into the
Interconnected Brazilian system, two ± 800
kV HVDC 4,000 MW bi-poles will be built to
link the northern part of the Brazilian power
system network to its southeast part. It is a
new challenge for this continental-size system.
Besides the usual obstacles encountered
in establishing a 2,140 km transmission
(originating in the Amazon region), the project
will have the highest DC voltage level standard
and an amount of power never transmitted in
a single link in Brazil. The second bi-pole, to be
implemented two years after the first one thus
completing the HVDC link system, will contain
the longest transmission line in the world, an
estimated 2,439 kilometres.
BRAZIL WILL BE A MEMBER OF A VERY SELECT
GROUP OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE 800 KV
TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS
In the Brazilian green energy mix,
hydropower is the key player. Investment
in energy transmission infrastructure is
fundamental if the country is to better
exploit this undeveloped potential. What
does the Logistics Investment Plan launched
in 2012 by President Rousseff foresee?
J. A. Ragone Filho
The Logistic Investment Plan is a great effort
by the Brazilian government to modernize its
logistics infrastructure. At the moment, the
government is trying to promote both state
and private investments.
| 2035: Brazil at the cutting edge |
Brazil’s abundant and
diverse energy resources
underpin an 80% increase
in its energy use, including
the achievement of universal
access to electricity. Rising
consumption is driven by
the energy needs of an
expanding middle class,
resulting in strong growth in
demand for transport fuels
and a doubling of electricity
consumption. Meeting this
demand requires substantial
and timely investment
throughout the energy
system – $90 billion per year
on average.
The system of auctions for
new electricity generation
and transmission capacity
will be vital in bringing new
capital to the power sector
and in reducing pressure
on end-user prices. The
development of a wellfunctioning gas market,
attractive to new entrants,
can likewise help spur
investment and improve
the competitive position
of Brazilian industry. A
stronger policy focus on
energy efficiency would ease
potential strains on a rapidly
growing energy system.
Brazil’s energy sector
remains one of the least
carbon-intensive in the
world, despite greater
availability and use of fossil
fuels. Brazil is already a
world-leader in renewable
energy and is set to almost
double its output form
renewables by 2035,
maintaining their 43%
share of the domestic
energy mix. Hydropower
remains the backbone of
the power sector.
From
World Energy Outlook 2013 International Energy Agency
P. C. V. Esmeraldo
The Logistic Investment Plan foresees a
strong partnership between public and
private investments. This is of fundamental
importance for the Brazilian infrastructure
development in the electric industry. In that
segment, the transmission lines will be of
paramount importance not only considering
the development of meshed 500 kV AC lines
interconnecting the main regions of the country,
but also the new HVDC links connecting the
great unexploited hydropower plants located in
the Amazon region. These lines will range from
2,000 - 3,000 km, the distance from the power
plants to the main areas of consumption. They
will be technologically in the avant-garde and
will demonstrate HVDC’s capabilities thereby
serving to increase the technology’s diffusion.
What are the particular characteristics
of the strategic HVDC projects that will
connect the internal area of the country
(where green power plants are located) to
the main areas of consumption?
J. A. Ragone Filho
In Brazil, HVDC is used to transmit huge
amounts of power over large distances.
Because of this, the use of HVDC in Brazil is
based on high voltage levels and very long
lines. Brazil was the first country to use 600
kV HVDC (Itaipu project) and now will be a
member of a very selected group of countries
that have 800 kV transmission systems.
Two 800 kV bi-poles will be constructed in the
near future, and electrical studies suggest other
HVDC systems will be necessary in the future.
The project of setting up
hydroelectric power plants
on the Xingu River, in the
Parà state of Brazil, date
back to the 1970s, under the
name of Cararaô. Then, the
plan was to construct three
plants using models current
at the time, which would
have created three large
flooded areas in the shape
of a ‘cascade’ occupying a
total area of approximately
1,500 km2.
The proposal currently being
debated seeks to minimise
the possible negative effects
of building dams. The new
dam will use “run-of-river”
designs, eschewing large
reservoirs and relying on
the water’s natural flow to
power the turbines. The
current project presupposes
the construction of one main
dam and a secondary one,
close to each other, creating
a single flooded area of
approximately 500 km2 (a
third of what earlier projects
anticipated).
Belo Monte will have an
installed capacity of 20
MW per square kilometre
flooded, a much higher index
than that of Brazilian megapower plants: Itaipu (10MW/
km2) and Tucuruí (3.5MW/
km2). Belo Monte will also
be, with regard to this
feature, as efficient as the
most modern hydroelectric
plants currently being built
such as the Three Gorges
in China, with 21 MW/
km2, and especially more
efficient than the current
P. C. V. Esmeraldo
HVDC is the most economical way to transmit
huge amounts of energy over very long
distances and the right-of-way to transmit
8,000 MW is close to three or four times less
than with AC transmission lines for the same
capacity, hence the environment impact is
undoubtedly much lower. Moreover, as HVDC
is traditionally a point-to-point transmission, it
is expected multi-terminals will be used to feed
intermediate loads along those corridors once
the advanced development of existing multiterminals makes that option a real alternative.
This will strengthen the so-called DC grids with
much more controllability and security for the
power system.
Although Brazilian abundance in hydro
resources is certainly a great asset,
dependency on hydro can be dangerous.
How does the government plan on
balancing the mix while facing the
country’s growing energy demand?
J. A. Ragone Filho
Dry periods can bring some problems for energy
production from hydro plants, but Brazil has
very attractive possibilities to avoid that risk. The
country has wind farms and hydro plants in the
northeast where maximum generation occurs
exactly during the worst of the rainy season
in the southeast. Besides, some plants using
biomass are used to complement the system.
Finally, some hydro plants in Brazil can store
practice abroad such as the
Portuguese hydroelectric
plant of Alqueva, the largest
in Europe with 0.95 MW/km2.
In addition to the conceptual
change, the development
project envisages 40
mitigation initiatives for
possible socio-environmental
impacts on the region. It is
estimated the cost of these
measures will reach 2.5
billion reais out of the total
16 billion the government
says the project will cost.
Belo Monte thus constitutes
a development project of
undeniable strategic and
economic importance for
Brazil and is a model for
large-scale hydroelectric
plants as an environmentally
sustainable alternative.
water to use in the dry season, and in a worst
case scenario, Brazil has some natural gas plants
that can be used to produce only when green
energy is not available.
BRAZIL IS IMPROVING ITS GREEN ENERGY MIX,
INSTALLING GREAT AMOUNTS OF WIND POWER,
GAS-FIRED THERMAL PLANTS, BIOMASS PLANTS
AND MORE RECENTLY THE USE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC
SOLAR PLANTS HAS BEEN PLANNED
P. C. V. Esmeraldo
Of course, if Brazil were totally dependent
of hydropower energy it could be dangerous
since most hydro plants of recent construction
basically have a run-of-river design due to
environmental restrictions. But the country’s
characteristics and continental dimension give
the river basins great meteorological diversity
making the transmission interconnections
between the hydro plants in the north
and southeast regions a valuable asset to
optimise the energy flow during wet and dry
seasons. Besides that characteristics regarding
transmission systems, Brazil is improving its
green energy mix, installing great amounts
of wind power, gas-fired thermal plants,
biomass plants and more recently the use of
photovoltaic solar plants has been planned.
Therefore, to cope with its ever-increasing
energy needs, Brazil is on the right track as it
pursues a diversity of energy resources.
BACK TO CONTENTS
| IDEAS AND VISION |
Integrating RES
generation into
the power system
Bruno Cova, Head of Power Systems Markets & Regulatory,
Consulting, Solutions & Services Division, CESI
IN THE EU THE GENERATION MIX IS IN RAPID TRANSFORMATION DUE BASICALLY
TO AN ENHANCED PENETRATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES. THIS DRAMATIC
CHANGE IS PROMPTING SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS IN TRANSMISSION GRIDS.
In these recent years, the European Union has
proactively acted to reduce the impact of human
activities on climate change. In 2009, the EU
Parliament and the Council approved the Climate
and Energy package consisting of a series of
binding targets to be reached by 2020: the socalled 20-20-20 targets. Soon after the approval of
the above objectives, a further discussion started
at the European Commission addressing an even
more ambitious target consisting of reducing
GHG to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The
achievement of this long-term target entails an
almost full decarbonisation of the power sector
with a consequent revolution on the “generation
mix”, where wind and solar generation would
play an increasingly important role. This implies
the adoption of new technologies to ensure the
power supply with adequate reliability, as well as
new electricity corridors to transmit bulk power
over long distances and distribute the power
regionally ensuring higher flexibility with respect to
the present situation.
As a consequence, in the EU the generation
mix is in rapid transformation due basically
to an enhanced penetration of renewable
energy sources (RES), particularly from the wind
and the sun thanks to generous incentives.
According to ENTSO-E (the European Network
of Transmission System Operators of Electricity)
the “reference scenario” estimates in the
next eight years a 120 percent growth in the
installation of RES generation, excluding hydro,
passing from 177 GW to 392 GW.
The dramatic change in the generation mix
is prompting substantial investments in the
transmission grids. The Ten Year National
Development Plan of ENTSO-E estimates an
investment of 100 billion Euro over the next
ten years, out of which 80 percent is for the
integration of RES generation. In addition, the
deployment of large scale RES generation is
having an impact on the system security and on
the power market mechanisms.
Here below we highlight the barriers to
overcome to foster an enhanced penetration
of non-programmable RES generation while
ensuring the compliance with the security and
reliability standards adopted by the European
Transmission System Operators.
Taking as a base CESI’s experience, we also
illustrate possible solutions for solving the
potential problems caused by the nonprogrammable RES generation.
THE FAST INCREASE OF GENERATION FROM NONPROGRAMMABLE RES HAS HEAVY CONSEQUENCES
BOTH ON THE POWER MARKET OPERATION AND
THE SYSTEM RELIABILITY AND SECURITY
Impact of non-programmable RES
generation on the power system
The fast increase of generation from nonprogrammable RES has heavy consequences both
on the power market operation and the system
reliability and security. It is worth underlining that
the problems briefly addressed here below have
already affected some European countries and
the solutions to overcome them can represent a
good lesson to be learned by countries that are
now launching new strategies for the deployment
of RES generation in their territories.
Impact on the day-ahead power market
The priority dispatch of non-programmable
RES generation can cause a non-negligible
distortion of the day-ahead hourly market
prices whenever the amount of this energy
is significant compared with conventional
generation. The reduction of market prices in
daylight hours, caused by massive PV generation,
is compensated by owners of conventional
generators by increasing their biddings in the
early evening hours to recover their margins.
Estimated evolution of the generation mix in Europe by 2020
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
177
245
271
210
216
126
459
128
467
127
458
2012
2015
2016
200
30%
392
235
132
456
20%
10%
0%
Fossil fuel
Nuclear Power
Hydro Power
Renewable Energy Sources (other than hydro)
2020
Sources: ENTSO-E
International Initiatives
for RES integration
CESI’s projects for RES integration
Load following
The PV generation pattern as well as that of other
non-programmable RES are fully decoupled from
the daily load behavior. Particularly, in the late
afternoon the PV generation sharply decreases,
just when the demand goes up. Hence, the
conventional generation is called upon to react
quickly to replace the missing PV generation and
to cover the increasing demand thus causing
wear and tear on the power plant equipment.
Hence, the flexibility enhancement of the
conventional generation is becoming a key
priority to operate the system in the presence
of non-programmable RES generation.
Thus, also in this case, the increased flexibility of
conventional generation together with possible
applications of storage devices is becoming a
key priority for the system to function.
Risk of “over-generation” (or insufficient
“downward” system adequacy)
The excess of non-programmable RES generation
in days with low demand is proving to be a
critical factor. The sum of scheduled power
import and minimum dispatchable conventional
generation risks exceeding residual demand.
To balance the system, structural long-term
measures must be adopted, like building new
pumping stations when feasible, or marketbased measures, like the coupling of balancing
markets to avoid reducing net transfer capacities
with a consequent market fragmentation.
Risk of RES generating unit cascade disconnection
If not properly designed, connection rules
governing RES generating units can create the
risk of a cascade effect passing disturbances
down the power system. Hence, connection
rules have recently been reviewed and now
new RES generation must stay connected up
to the same values of frequency deviations
tolerated by conventional generation.
Need for additional reserve
Due to the higher volatility of intermittent RES
generation and consequent higher forecast
errors, system operators should ensure an
additional amount of upward and downward
reserve provided by conventional generation
to balance the system. A problem arises
when during a remarkable penetration of RES
generation, a reduced set of conventional units
is called upon to ensure the requested reserve.
1.Assessment of the
additional upward/
downward reserve
in relationship to the
penetration rate of
non-programmable RES
generation.
2.Assessment of the
maximum theoretical
penetration level of
non-programmable RES
generation neglecting
the network constraints,
but taking into account
all constraints on the (in)
flexibility of conventional
generation, load patterns
and requirements for
secondary and tertiary
reserve.
3.Starting from the value
of RES generation
identified in the
previous step, the RES
generation is distributed
in the territory under
examination considering
the availability of primary
resources and, through
a series of deterministic
computations, the optimal
connection locations and
possible local congestions.
4.From the composite
generation-transmissionload model identified
above, a yearly probability
analysis is applied. It
takes into account all
uncertainty in the power
system, in particular
Italy, TERNA
Development Plan
for RES integration
to National
Transmission grid
Poland, Romania,
Crete, Turkey, ENEL
Maximum
penetration of RES
(wind and solar
generation)
Bulgaria, WAS
Wind
integration
studies
Dynamic stability and quality of supply
A large share of RES generation is connected
to the system through static converters; this is
typical for PV units, but also for wind turbines.
As a consequence, a higher penetration of nonsynchronous RES generation entails a reduction
of inertia, the contribution of which is essential
to slow down the frequency deviations in the
first instants after a disturbance. Therefore,
the conventional generating units are called to
faster actions to avoid excessive frequency drops
(or over-frequency) leading to the automatic
triggering of load shedding or defense plans.
In general, the presence of non-synchronous
the uncertainty and
intermittency of wind
and solar generation
are modeled in full
compliance with the
wind and solar regime in
the various geographical
areas. At the end of
this stage, a number of
indicators are evaluated:
risk of RES generation
curtailment and its causes,
reliability indexes, and the
likelihood of congestion.
Hence, one can decide
the priority of network
reinforcements knowing
the congestion entity.
5.Finally, a series of
dynamic checks are
carried out that aim
to ensure the system’s
stability should a set of
credible contingencies
occur. At the end of
the dynamic analyses,
the system planner, in
agreement with the
operation policy and
connection standards,
suggests the optimal
setting to protect the
network from problems
that arise at the power
stations.
The “Friend of the Supergrids” is a
group of companies and organisations
with a mutual interest in promoting the
policy agenda for a European Supergrid.
RES4MED is a meeting point to
compare strategies, discuss project
outcomes, and connect experiences
and knowledge in the Mediterranean.
RES4MED intends to play the role of a
“network of networks”, while offering
its members expertise, knowledge and
experience.
Network congestions
Renewable resources are often location
dependent, particularly wind and solar power.
Thus, power flowing over longer distances
through the network can create congestion
even relatively far from RES generation areas.
In this case, remedial measures consist of local
network reinforcements and/or the installation
of storage devices.
| A five-step approach for RES penetration |
For assessing the
maximum penetration
level of non-programmable
RES generation in
compliance with the
security and reliability
criteria, CESI has chosen
to adopt a five-step
approach.
Ireland, NIE/Eir
Grid
Transmission
development plan
to integrate RES
generation
Desertec Industrial Initiative acts
as facilitator and catalyst of industrial
initiatives for the integration of solar
and wind power from the MENA region
into the internal European market. DII is
not an investor itself, nor will it develop
projects itself. Rather it helps the market
to recognize and develop feasible
projects.
Morocco, ENEL
Maximum
penetration of RES
Tunisia, ELMED
Wind integration
studies
Libya, REAOL
Wind integration
studies
generation risks weaken the system, which
suffers larger frequency deviations and voltage
drops at the occurrence of a disturbance.
Assessing the maximum penetration of
non-programmable RES generation
Solutions exist to overcome the problems outlined
above, which arise when coping with a high
share of non-programmable RES generation.
These are pertinent to all stages of the power
sector, from generation to demand, and are part
of the fundamental principles and technological
applications developed with the smart grids.
The adoption of appropriate measures foster an
enhanced penetration of RES generation while
keeping the required system security and reliability
standards. To this aim, CESI has developed and
successfully applied a robust methodology to
assess the maximum non-programmable RES
penetration in a power system. (You can find
CESI’s methodology summarized in the box “A
five-step approach for RES penetration”.)
Conclusions
The big increase in volatile RES generation
with the priority it is given over conventional
generation is causing a non-negligible distortion
of the day-ahead market prices. In addition,
Egypt, ITALGEN
Wind integration
studies
Jordan, MEMR (NEPCO)
Wind integration
studies
some forms of RES generation, for example
PV generators, originate during early evening
high-load gradients which are followed by
conventional generation; to address this
problem, storage systems become essential.
Furthermore, the risk of cascade disconnections
of RES generating units and the consequent
dynamic stability issues increases. At the same
time, the power quality declines.
All the above factors must be considered
carefully for a reasonable development of
power generation from non-programmable
renewable sources. In this context, as we
have noted in the box, a robust procedure
to assess the maximum penetration of nonprogrammable RES can be implemented. This
procedure has already been adopted by CESI in
a number of studies applied to European and
Mediterranean countries as shown on the map.
Finally, it is worth recalling that international
associations are actively working to coordinate
the deployment of RES generation and the
construction of the necessary onshore and
offshore transmission infrastructures in
Europe as well as in the southern and eastern
Mediterranean region. Within this framework,
CESI is an active member of RES4MED and
“Friends of the Supergrid”.
BACK TO CONTENTS
| NEWS & EVENTS |
| REVIEWS |
Energy for future Presidents.
The Science behind the headlines
Italy - Russia Bilateral Summit
Date > 26th November 2013
Venue > Trieste, Italy
Richard Muller
RICHARD MULLER’S BOOK IS A MUSTREAD GUIDE TO OUR ENERGY PRIORITIES
NOW AND IN THE COMING YEARS
The author of Physics for
Future Presidents, UC
Berkeley physicist Richard
Muller, returns to educate
all of us on the most crucial
riddle for the planet: energy.
The near-meltdown of
Fukushima, the upheavals
in the Middle East, the BP
oil rig explosion and the
looming reality of global
warming remind all of us
that nothing has more
impact on our lives than
the supply of and demand
for energy. Its procurement
dominates our economy and
foreign policy more than any
other factor. But the “energy
question” is more confusing,
contentious and complicated
than ever before.
Richard Muller frames his
highly readable book as
a series of explanatory
memoranda to a
hypothetical U.S. President,
covering all the proposals
currently on the table. In
so doing, he brings fresh,
often contrarian perspectives
to topics that have been
saturated in misinformation
and hype.
Coming back to the science
behind the dilemma is the
only way for reshaping
challenges we must face.
Muller undertakes the
commitment in a lucid but
never simplistic way.
He argues, for example, that
new techniques to extract
the stupendous reserves
of petroleum in shale and
tar sands will eliminate all
talk of peak oil; that wind
power and photovoltaics
will boom while corn
ethanol, geothermal, and
tidal power will fizzle;
that household energy
conservation is a great
investment, while public
transit is usually a bad one;
and that China’s soaring
carbon dioxide emissions
will make America’s almost
irrelevant—and that the
best way to abate China’s
emissions is by switching
from coal to natural gas.
For the longer term,
he anticipates that the
developing sector will adopt
nuclear power, employing
small modular nuclear
reactors that are designed to
be intrinsically safe.
Richard Muller’s book is
a must-read guide to our
energy priorities now and
in the coming years. An
informative, comprehensive
discussion of important
economic and environmental
issues.
Richard Muller is
Phisics professor at Berkeley
University
BACK TO CONTENTS
CESI signed an agreement
with JSC Russian Grids
– Rosseti during Italy
and Russia’s bilateral
consultations in Trieste,
in front of Russian President
Mr. Putin and Italian Prime
Minister Mr. Letta.
Elecrama
Date> from the 8th to the 12th January 2014
Venue> Bangalore, India
http://www.elecrama.com/
CESI will be participating at the 11th edition of
Elecrama in 2014 in Bangalore, the most important
trade fair in the region. Another sign of the strategic
role played by the Indian subcontinent within CESI’s
business.
World Future Energy Summit
Date> from 20th to 22nd January 2014
Venue> Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
http://www.worldfutureenergysummit.com/portal/aboutwfes/overview.aspx
Middle East Electricity
Date> from 11st to 13rd February 2014
Venue> Dubai, United Arab Emirates
http://www.middleeastelectricity.com/
CESI confirms the strong interest and its presence
in the Middle East region joining also this year the
World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi and
the Middle East Electricity in Dubai, the two most
important trade fairs in this key area.
Shaping a Better Energy Future
CESI is a leading global technical consulting and engineering company with over 50 years experience in several
areas including: Transmission and Interconnections, Smart Grids, Power Distribution, Renewables, Testing,
Certification and Quality Assurance. CESI also develops and manufactures advanced multi junction photovoltaic
solar cells for both space and terrestrial (HCPV) applications.
With an annual turnover of more than €120 million, CESI operates in more than 40 countries around the world,
with a total network of 1,000 professionals. The company’s key clients include Governmental Institutions,
Regulatory Authorities, major Utilities, Transmission System Operators (TSOs), Distribution System Operators
(DSOs), Power Generation companies, Manufacturers, Financial institutions and International electromechanical
and electronic manufacturers. CESI is a fully independent joint-stock company with main premises located in
Milan, Berlin, Mannheim, Dubai and Rio de Janeiro.
www.cesi.it
Milan • Berlin • Mannheim • Dubai • Rio de Janeiro
Trust the Power of Experience
Testing • Consulting • Engineering • Environment

publication

Transcription

Similar documents

Roswell Solar, Chaves County Solar, and Chaves

CESI ROUEN IMMERSION PROGRAMME April to June

1st Prize - Eurosolar Italia

343-438 Addiyar Building, Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai / UAE +971 4

KPAC Case Study Solar

About APSYS Models and Features Application Demonstrations

COMMERCIAL SOLAR CASE STUDY – GARELICK FARMS

COMMERCIAL CASE STUDY – “Brotherhood Winery”

Solar Power and a GREAT OWNER LETTER

Atlantis Energy Systems Inc.