Talaat Mostafa Group - Talaat Moustafa Group
Transcription
Talaat Mostafa Group - Talaat Moustafa Group
MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Initiation Overweight Talaat Mostafa Group TMGH.CA, TMGH EY Price: £E7.99 Play Cairo RE the TMG way - Initiate with OW Price Target: £E10.70 • We initiate coverage of Talaat Mostafa Group Holding (TMG) with an OW rating and Dec 2010 SOTP based PT of EGP10.7; we also add the stock to the Analyst Focus List (AFL). At current prices, we see 34% upside in the stock, which trades at a 34% price to NAV discount. TMG is up 16% YTD, outperforming the benchmark EGX30 Index by 15%. However, we expect stock price momentum to continue and the price to NAV discount to narrow with better upcoming QoQ results on the back of planned handovers and a further pick up in new sales momentum. • Strong domestic driven housing demand benefits TMG’s Cairo-heavy landbank: Targeting Egypt’s middle (35%) and upper middle (12%) income segment, which accounts for c. 47% of the country’s total population, TMG is the largest listed developer on the Cairo Stock Exchange with 50mn sq m in its landbank. About 86% of TMG’s landbank is Egypt based, with the rest located in Saudi Arabia – a market with strong demand dynamics similar to Egypt. We forecast Cairo’s housing shortfall to reach 264k units by end-2010, with demand for middle and upper middle income segments estimated at 125k units. TMG plans to launch off-plan sales in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in 4Q10. • Strong sales backlog at EGP24bn and self-funded business model: Current sales backlog of EGP24bn provides TMG with high visibility on 3yr earnings – the highest within our MENA coverage universe. The company has historically and continues to rely on a self-funded business model, with construction costs funded through cash-based off-plan sales. Given this, TMG’s balance sheet position is healthy with net debt/equity at 23% at end-1Q10 – at the favorable lower end of the net debt/equity range for its GCC peers. • Key risks: The downside risks to our OW rating could come from weaker than forecast revenue from planned handovers in 2010-2012, weaker than forecast margins on residential units, lower than expected demand for housing and a poor response to the off-plan sales launch in Saudi Arabia. Talaat Mostafa Group Holding Company (TMGH.CA;TMGH EY) 2009A 2010E FYE Dec 2008A Adj. EPS FY (£E) 0.71 0.53 0.77 Sales FY (£E mn) 5,421 4,822 7,109 Sales growth (%) FY -11% 47% EBITA FY (£E mn) 1,715 1,240 1,949 Net profit FY (£E mn) 1,442 1,106 1,566 Net profit growth(%) FY -23.3% 41.5% P/E FY 11.2 15.1 10.4 P/BV FY 0.7 0.7 0.7 Net D/E FY 19.6% 23.7% 20.7% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. 2011E 0.87 9,024 27% 2,226 1,775 13.4% 9.1 0.6 16.0% 2012E 1.35 10,914 21% 3,571 2,748 54.8% 5.9 0.6 11.1% Property Muneeza Hasan AC (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch Christian Kern (971) 4428-1789 [email protected] JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch Harm Meijer (44-20) 7325-9248 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Price Performance 9.0 7.5 £E 6.0 4.5 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 TMG - Landbank by location 8% 14% 78% Cairo Outside Cairo Saudi Arabia Source: Company reports Company Data Price (£E) Date Of Price Price Target (£E) Price Target End Date 52-week Range (£E) Mkt Cap (£E bn) Mkt Cap (US) ($ bn) Shares O/S (mn) Free Float 3Mnth Avg daily value (US$ MM) 7.99 03 Jun 10 10.70 31 Dec 10 8.63 4.50 16.2 2.9 2,030 45.0% 9.99 See page 50 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table of Contents Play Cairo RE the TMG way.....................................................3 Initiate with OW and Dec 2010 SOTP based PT of EGP10.7 .....................................3 Strong domestic driven housing demand benefits TMG's Cairo-heavy landbank .......3 Strong sales backlog at EGP24bn (1Q10)....................................................................4 Self-funded business model; low gearing ....................................................................5 Strong valuations underpinned by robust underlying fundamentals ............................5 TMG in Saudi Arabia – Off-plan sales to be launched in 4Q10 ..................................6 Recurring revenue to account for c. 7% cumulative revenue.......................................7 Key downside risks to our rating and PT .....................................................................7 Valuations – OW TMG with Dec 2010 SOTP based PT of EGP10.7.....................................................................................8 Key drivers of TMG’s SOTP fair value.......................................................................9 TMG – Strong valuations with 34% price to NAV discount .....................................11 Egypt – 11% of MENA GDP; 28% of MENA population .......14 Egypt – MENA’s most populated country.................................................................15 Egypt property market ...........................................................17 High demand for housing amid low affordability levels............................................17 Housing deficit in upper middle, middle & low income segment…..........................18 …but affordability levels remain low ........................................................................18 Cairo – Residential shortfall to reach 264k units by end 2010 .........................................................................................20 Over 550k marriage contracts signed annually; another way to gauge housing demand.......................................................................................................................20 Cairo – among the world’s top 10 most populated cities ...........................................21 Cairo's rapidly developing suburban communities ....................................................21 Residential prices have been relatively stable for middle income housing................23 Cairo Commercial - Office space remains undersupplied ..25 Cairo Retail and Hospitality...................................................27 Cairo Retail – limited GLA for high-end retail..........................................................27 Hospitality..................................................................................................................28 Key players - TMG is the largest ...........................................29 Talaat Mostafa Group - Changing Cairo's landscape..........32 Management...............................................................................................................33 Self-funded business model – core in Egypt..............................................................34 Key Projects - Madinaty is the largest ..................................36 Madinaty – 62% of TMG’s SOTP .............................................................................37 Al Rehab 1 and 2 – 12% of TMG’s SOTP value .......................................................38 Al Rabwa 2 – 2% of TMG’s SOTP value..................................................................39 TMG’s first international project – Nasamat Al Riyadh; 5% of the SOTP................40 Hotels and Resorts – 20% of TMG’s SOTP ..............................................................41 Revenue outlook – 3-yr revenue CAGR of 31% ...................43 EBITDA and net profit outlook .................................................................................43 Cash flows and balance sheet ..............................................45 Low gearing with liquidity likely to improve going forward.....................................45 Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................48 2 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Play Cairo RE the TMG way Initiate with OW and Dec 2010 SOTP based PT of EGP10.7 Table 1: TMG EPS - JPM vs. Bberg consensus EGP Bberg Conc JPMorgan 2010E 0.96 0.77 2011E 1.45 0.87 We initiate coverage of Talaat Mostafa (TMG) with an OW rating and Dec 2010 SOTP based PT of EGP10.7. We also add TMG to the CEEMEA Analyst Focus List. Targeting Egypt’s middle (35%) and upper middle (12%) income segment, which accounts for c. 47% of the country’s total population, TMG is the largest listed developer on the Cairo Stock Exchange with 50mn sq m in its landbank and experienced management with a good track record of on time deliveries (c. 25,000 residential deliveries since inception). About 78% of the company's landbank is located in Cairo, 8% outside Cairo, while the rest is located in Riyadh and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – a market with equally strong demand dynamics as Egypt. 2012E 1.80 1.35 Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates Talaat Mostafa is Egypt’s largest listed developer with 50mn sq m in its landbank, 78% of which is located in Cairo The stock trades at a 34% discount to 2010E NAV and our price target implies 34% upside from current levels. Offering a 3-yr revenue and net income CAGR of 31% and 35%, respectively, on our estimates, TMG is also one of the most attractively valued stocks in terms of P/B when compared to its regional peers with similar underlying demand dynamics. Planned handovers during 2H10, landbank revaluation by CBRE and the launch of off-plan sales in Saudi Arabia in 4Q10 should be key near- to medium-term triggers for stock performance Key near- to medium-term catalysts include upcoming quarterly earnings for 2010 driven by planned handovers, landbank revaluation by CBRE (last valuation carried out in June 2008), completion and launch of the Nile Hotel in Cairo and the Nasamat Al Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) off-plan sales launch in 4Q10. The downside risks to our OW rating could come from weaker than forecast revenue from planned handovers in 2010-2012, weaker than forecast margins on residential units, lower than forecast demand for housing and a poor response to the off-plan sales launch in Saudi Arabia. Strong domestic driven housing demand benefits TMG's Cairo-heavy landbank TMG owns roughly 50mn sq m in its landbank of which nearly 78% is concentrated in Cairo, Egypt. Being the commercial hub and the capital of Egypt, Cairo attracts a significant number of local migrants with nearly 1,000 people moving into the capital every week according to a UN development report. Figure 1: Egypt and Cairo’s housing shortfall 1,000 Egy pt '000 800 Figure 2: TMG - Egypt's largest developer by landbank Cairo Outside Cairo 800 8% 600 400 405 134 200 Cairo 282 264 78% 93 96 32 19 6 Upper Lux ury Saudi Arabia 14% 0 Ov erall Low Middle shortfall Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates Middle Source: Company reports 3 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 We estimate Cairo’s residential housing shortfall to reach 264k by end-2010. Of this, the shortfall for middle to upper middle income segment is estimated at 125k units Bursting at the seams, the city is amongst the world’s top 15 densely populated cities with nearly 18mn people. Despite the new developments coming on stream within the new suburban communities surrounding Cairo, the city’s housing pressures are unlikely to subside with the urban population estimated to grow at a much faster rate than rural given relatively better employment prospects and lifestyle. Hence, given continued strong growth in Cairo’s population, we estimate Cairo’s housing stock deficit to reach 125k for the middle to upper middle income segment by end-2010 with the overall housing shortfall reaching 264k. Strong sales backlog at EGP24bn (1Q10) Current sales backlog of EGP24bn provides TMG with high visibility on 3-yr earnings – the highest within our MENA coverage universe. The tough global environment in 2009 has had a modest impact on TMG sales, where customer contract cancellations peaked in 1H09 and currently account for less than 5% of the total backlog. These have been more than offset by new sales generated in 2H09 and 1Q10. The company generated new sales of EGP1.2bn in 1Q10 and plans to maintain the overall backlog at EGP25bn for 2010; implying new sales of EGP3bn in 2010, according to our estimates. TMG plans to further increase its sales backlog to EGP30bn (net of revenue recognition of units being completed in 2011) by end2011; implying new sales of EGP4bn. Figure 3: TMG - Landbank by project and location 10% TMG's current sales backlog of EGP24bn provides 3-year earnings visibility – the highest within our MENA universe 2% 14% 66% 8% Madinaty (Cairo) Al Rehab (Cairo) Riy adh and Jeddah Hotel projects (Egy pt) Al Rabw a (Cairo) Source: Company reports Madinaty is TMG's largest development project and once completed in 2020 will become MENA’s largest integrated community complex 4 Madinaty is TMG’s largest project by landbank with nearly 33mn sq m accounting for 66% of the company’s total landbank and 62% of our SOTP based value. Divided into 6 overlapping phases, the Madinaty project is due for completion by 2020, where the first set of handovers is planned for 2H 2010. Once completed in 2020, Madinaty will become MENA’s largest integrated community style development. This is followed by the Al Rehab project located in the New Cairo region with nearly 4mn of incremental land area under development. Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Self-funded business model; low gearing TMG relies largely on a self-funded business model with little upfront funding requirement to develop city and community complexes. The payment for purchased land parcels does not entail an initial cash outlay and is typically settled in kind in the form of residential apartments to the Ministry of Housing (e.g. Madinaty and Al Rehab). The upfront costs involving development plan and initial infrastructure are funded via equity or debt, while the overall project construction cost is financed through customer advances that are typically linked to phased cash outflow. Given the restrictions on mortgage financing, commercial banks cannot fund off-plan sales directly; thus the selffunded, off-plan sales model has worked well for TMG. Given this, the company’s balance sheet is healthy with net debt/equity of 23% as of 31st March 2010 – at the favorable lower end of the net debt/equity range for its GCC peers. At 23% (1Q10), TMG’s net debt/equity is at the lower end relative to its MENA peers Figure 4: TMG enjoys one of the lowest net debt/equity ratios among its GCC peers 490% 454% 390% 290% 190% 190% 110% 90% 45% 23% 22% -4% -10% Barw a - Aldar - UAE Palm Hills - Dar Al Arkan TMG - Egy pt Emaar -UAE Qatar Egy pt Sorouh - - KSA UAE Net Debt / Equity Source: Bloomberg, Company reports and Zawya Strong valuations underpinned by robust underlying fundamentals Despite the recent run up, TMG’s valuations remain attractive with the stock trading at 9x 2010E earnings and at a 34% discount to 2010E book In Feb 2009, TMG's stock hit a low of EGP2.37, down 81% from its 2008 peak of EGP12.51. We believe that this was a combination of 1) general lack of appetite for and risk aversion from equities, where real estate developers among others across the globe hit their trough valuations and 2) legal proceedings against the former chairman of TMG (these charges have recently been dropped as per Bloomberg). However, following better than expected macro numbers, limited default from local real estate investors driven by limited speculative demand and better than expected sales and earnings announcements by the company, the stock has seen a sharp recovery from its mid 2009 lows, where it’s up 44% in 12 months. Figure 5: TMG Price performance since listing (rebased) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 TMG Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 EGX 30 Index Source: Bloomberg 5 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Despite this recovery, the stock still trades at a 34% discount to 2010E NAV and 9x 2010E earnings. TMG is by far the only stock within our MENA universe that offers a 34% discount to 2010E NAV despite the strong underlying demand dynamics of the Cairo real estate. In Saudi Arabia where underlying demand dynamics are equally strong and speculative buying remains non-existent, the largest real estate developer by market cap, Dar Al Arkan, trades at a 5% discount to 2010E book (Bloomberg consensus). Figure 6: MENA Large Cap Real Estate developers on P/B 2010E 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 81% Discount// Premium to P/B 62% 31% 20% -5% -14% -22% -34% -39% -58% Jabal Omar - DLF Ltd. - Barw a - KSA India Qatar Palm Hills Dar Al Arkan Saudi RE - - KSA KSA Sorouh TMG Emaar -UAE Aldar Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates, Priced on June 03 TMG in Saudi Arabia – Off-plan sales to be launched in 4Q10 14% of TMG’s landbank is located in Saudi Arabia – a market with equally strong underlying fundamentals as Egypt 6 TMG has picked Saudi Arabia (KSA) to develop its first mixed used project as part of the company's geographical diversification strategy. KSA offers a blend of both strong domestic demand, with its largest population base of 28mn in the GCC, and strong macros driven by oil backed revenues. Riyadh is Saudi Arabia’s fastest growing housing market with annual population growth averaging at 2.2%. According to the Riyadh Development Authority, Riyadh needs nearly 18,000 units of annual supply over the next 20 years to fill up the housing deficit. With high pent up demand, Riyadh has been one of the few places where residential prices and rents have remained stable in the prime residential areas. TMG is a JV partner in Nasamat Al Riyadh project with a total of 4mn sq in land area (TMG’s share is estimated at 2mn sq m – 50% of the total), where the company plans to launch off-plan sales during 4Q10. TMG’s share in this project is at 5% of our SOTP value. Apart from this project, the company owns additional landbank of 2.8mn sq m (TMG’s share is 50% of that) in Jeddah, which will be developed going forward after master development plans are finalized. Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Recurring revenue to account for c. 7% cumulative revenue TMG’s hotels and resorts portfolio accounts for 20% of our combined SOTP with recurring revenues representing 7% of the consolidated topline TMG currently has 3 operational hotels with 684 room keys through its hotels and resorts management subsidiary Arab Company for Hotels and Tourism Investment (ICON). The fourth hotel, Nile Hotel with 191 room keys, is due for completion by 3Q10, while the company plans to raise this to 5,000 room keys in 5 years of which 1,725 room keys are committed and under development. We only take into account the committed and under development hotel room keys when calculating our DCF from the hotel and resort portfolio. The company’s hotel and resort portfolio benefits from reasonable occupancy levels and healthy operating margins given robust visitor traffic into Egypt annually. The existing portfolio allows TMG to tap the business and tourism traffic flow particularly into Cairo and Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt’s key tourist destination). With three operational hotels and five hotel and resort projects in the pipeline, the company’s hotels and resorts portfolio accounts for 20% of our TMG SOTP value. However, with development revenues from Madinaty and Al Rehab accounting for a sizable proportion of the company’s consolidated revenues, the contribution from hotels and resorts at the revenue level is c.7% on average (2010-2012), as per our estimates. Key downside risks to our rating and PT Weaker than forecast revenue for planned handovers The revenue from villa sales is split into two stages, where TMG records revenue from the land area for underlying villas upon sales generation and contract reservation, while revenue from the built up area (BUA) for villas as well as apartments is recorded only upon handover. Hence, if the company generates lower than expected new villas sales, it could lead to weaker than estimated revenues over our forecast period. Similarly, revenues from land sales are also recorded upfront, hence lower than forecast land sales to Mega Developers in any quarter can result in lower than estimated revenues from this segment. Poor response and potential delay in launch of off-plan sales in Riyadh TMG’s share in Nasamat Al Riyadh is 50%, where the project represents 5% of the company’s combined SOTP on our estimates. We estimate TMG to achieve 5% sales of the total BUA in Nasamat Al Riyadh when the project is launched in 4Q10. This assumption is already below the company’s planned launch at 10% BUA of the total for 2010. However, the downside to our PT could come from poor response from Saudi investors thus leading to weaker than forecast new sales in the company’s Saudi project. Slowdown in residential demand in Cairo Assuming annual 2% growth in Egypt’s population, we estimate the residential shortfall in Cairo to reach 264K in 2010. However deterioration in Egypt’s macro fundamentals driven by continued weakness in global macro fundamentals could result in reduced investor risk appetite leading to lower demand and limited affordability for housing. 7 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Valuations – OW TMG with Dec 2010 SOTP based PT of EGP10.7 At current prices, our SOTP based Dec 2010 PT of EGP10.7 implies 34% upside The largest contribution to our TMG SOTP comes from the Madinaty, a large community complex with target population of 600K and construction tenure of 20 years (to be completed in 6 overlapping phases over the course of its construction). Madinaty accounts for 62% of our TMG combined SOTP, followed by Al Rehab (1 & 2) accounting for c. 12% of the company’s SOTP value. We exclude TMG’s landbank from our SOTP calculation, as we forecast cash flows from all of TMG projects including Madinaty and Al Rehab for their entire construction period. We also exclude TMG’s land plot in Jeddah (2.8mn sq m), where construction plans have not yet been finalized. Slicing our SOTP according to development type, the development proportion of the company’s SOTP represents 80%, while the remaining 20% contribution comes from existing investment portfolio and potential cash flows from planned hotel and resorts projects. Table 2: TMG - SOTP valuation summary TMG's share of project NPV 2010 (EGP mn) Per share (EGP) As % of total 481 2,822 489 17,441 1,368 2,827 2,700 0.2 1.4 0.2 8.6 0.7 1.4 1.3 2% 10% 2% 62% 5% 10% 10% 28,129 13.9 (+) Other assets (-) Liabilities 23,326 -29,654 11.5 (14.6) TOTAL 21,801 Project Mixed used projects Al Rehab 1 Al Rehab 2 Al Rabwa 2 Madinaty Nasamat Al Riyadh - KSA Hotel projects Hospitality Portfolio Development status Completion date Construction stage Construction stage Construction stage Construction stage Pre-construction Construction stage Completed 2012 2017 2013 2020 2012 2015 Shares outstanding (mn) Valued interest Discount rate Total project value 2010 (EGP mn) 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 15.3% 15.7% 15.3% 15.7% 15.5% 15.5% 14.8% 481 2,822 489 17,441 2,737 2,827 2,700 2,030 NAV/share Target discount 10.7 0% Target NAV 10.7 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 8 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Figure 7: TMG – SOTP breakup by property type Figure 8: TMG – SOTP breakup by projects 4.9% 20% 10.1% 9.6% 62% 80% Master developments 11.7% 1.7% Investment portfolio Al Rehab Madinaty Hospitality Projects Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates Al Rabw a 2 Nassamat Al Riy adh - KSA Hospitality Portfolio Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates Key drivers of TMG’s SOTP fair value We calculate our SOTP using base case WACC of 14.8%, derived via base cost of equity at 16.5%, after tax cost of debt at 9.6% and target debt to capital of 25% We rate TMG OW with Dec 2010 SOTP based PT of EGP10.70. We do not apply a discount to our SOTP, as we find Egyptian property market dynamics rather robust with the residential demand largely driven by domestic population rather than expats. However, we use a high WACC of 14.8% to reflect low affordability levels and high interest & inflation (11.4% as of May 2010) rate environment in the country. Table 3: TMG — J.P. Morgan WACC calculation Egyptian 1yr Treasury bill Equity Market Risk Premium (EMRP) Base cost of equity 10.5% 6.0% 16.5% Current Cost of Debt Income Tax Rate After Tax Cost of Debt 12.0% 20.0% 9.6% Debt to Total Capital (Target) 25.0% Weighted Average Cost of Capital 14.8% Project and tenure wise discounting guide Yielding properties Construction stage Preconstruction stage Projects 3 years out Projects 4 years out Projects 5 years out Projects 6 years out and beyond 14.8% 15.3% 15.5% 15.8% 16.0% 16.3% 16.5% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates Our WACC is calculated using Egypt's benchmark 1 year Treasury bill rate (currently at 10.5%) to which we add an equity risk premium of 6%, resulting in our base cost of equity of 16.5%. We use 12% as our base cost of debt, which reduces to 9.6% after we apply a 20% corporate tax rate. Using a target debt to capital of 25%, we calculate our base WACC at 14.8%. We use our base cost of WACC to discount cash flows from TMG’s operational investment properties. However, for properties under construction, we apply an average WACC of 15.3% and for projects that are still in the preconstruction stage, we add a further 25bps to our construction stage WACC to discount potential cash flows. 9 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 For Madinaty Phase 5 and 6 that we estimate to be completed in 2017 and 2020, respectively, we add an incremental 25bps for each phase to our pre-construction WACC of 15.5%. This takes our Madinaty Phase 5 and Phase 6 WACC of 15.8% and 16%, respectively and results in a phase BUA-weighted WACC of 15.75%. We use a 2% terminal growth rate to discount cash flows from TMG's recurring income generating investment properties Table 4: TMG - WACC range across projects Projects Al Rehab 1 Al Rehab 2 Al Rabwa 2 Madinaty Nasamat Al Riyadh - KSA Hotel projects Hospitality Portfolio Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 10 Stage Construction stage Construction stage Construction stage Construction and pre construction stage Pre-construction Construction and pre construction stage Completed Completion 2012 2020 2013 2020 2012 2015 WACC range for phases Low High 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 16.0% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3% 16.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 14.8% 14.8% Average 15.3% 15.6% 15.3% 15.7% 15.5% 15.5% 14.8% Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 TMG – Strong valuations with 34% price to NAV discount The stock is up 16% YTD and 15% relative to the benchmark EGX30 Index. However we expect momentum to continue, with improved upcoming QoQ earnings through planned handovers and positive response from off-plan sales in Saudi Arabia TMG – offering a favorable mix vs. its peers Trading at a 34% discount to NAV (average since 2008) and underpinned by strong residential demand fundamentals, TMG makes a compelling buy case when compared to its regional emerging market peers in our view. The housing demand dynamics within Egyptian real estate are more comparable to Saudi Arabia, India and Malaysia among other emerging markets, where real estate developers are trading at close to or at a premium relative to their 2010E NAVs. Take, for example, Dar Al Arkan, Saudi Arabia’s largest RE developer by market cap with similar demand dynamics i.e. residential housing shortfall and under penetrated mortgage market, trades at an average 5% price to NAV discount. Similarly, DLF Limited, India’s largest listed developer, is trading at a 66% premium to its 2010E book. In contrast, while TMG’s UAE peers trade at comparable price to NAV discounts, we note that the two countries, in our view, differ on the basis of underlying demand fundamentals. TMG is up 16% YTD and 15% relative to its Cairo based benchmark EGX30 Index. In Feb 2009, TMG's stock hit a low of EGP2.37, down 81% from its 2008 peak of EGP12.51. Table 5: TMG vs. Key Emerging markets RE developers (>1bn in Mkt cap) Company Country DLF Ltd Emaar Prop Dar Al Arkan Rea Unitech Ltd Jabal Omar Development Growthpoint Prop TMG Holding Barwa Real Estate Redefine Property Aldar Properties DBRealty Ltd Emaar Economic C Housing Development Uem Land Hldg Sorouh Real Estate Average India UAE Saudi Arabia India Saudi Arabia South Africa Egypt Qatar South Africa UAE India Saudi Arabia India Malaysia UAE Market Cap US$ bn P/B X Total Return YTD % 10.2 5.3 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.7 1.66 0.61 0.96 1.54 1.81 1.03 0.65 1.31 0.93 0.42 2.72 1.00 1.08 2.72 0.78 1.28 -25 -17 -3 -15 -6 10 12 -7 0 -37 -11 -38 16 -14.8 -9.7 Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates, Priced on June 02 Hence, we believe that TMG's 34% price to NAV discount should further narrow moving forward supported by near-term triggers including upcoming quarterly results for 2010 on the back of planned handovers in Madinaty, a pick up in sales (1Q10 new sales recorded at EGP1.2bn) and 4Q10 off-plan sales in Riyadh. 11 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Figure 9: TMG price performance vs. top MENA peer average TMG Emaar Barw a 140 120 Dar Al Arkan Sorouh Figure 10: TMG P/B historical trend Aldar Palm Hills 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jun-08 Oct-08 Source: Bloomberg 12 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Price/Book av g+2std av g+1std 1.3 av g-1std av g 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Jan-08 May -08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May -09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May -10 Source: Bloomberg MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Egypt Property Market Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] 13 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Egypt – 11% of MENA GDP; 28% of MENA population Egypt economy grew 5% in 2009—3rd highest within MENA driven by continued FDI flows, remittances and tourism revenues Located in Northern Africa, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, Egypt is one of the largest economies within the MENA region accounting for 11% of the combined MENA GDP of US$1.7Tr (2009). Despite the challenging global macro dynamics, Egypt has managed to weather the storm, posting the third highest GDP growth within the MENA region at 5% in 2009. Our regional economist expects the positive growth trend to continue well into 2010 with an estimated real GDP growth of more than 5%. Based on these forecasts, we expect Egypt to achieve GDP per capita of US$ 3,100 in 2010, up from US$2,500 in 2009. Egypt’s manufacturing, Oil&Gas and agricultural sectors are the key contributors to GDP, accounting for an aggregate 46% and 17%, 15% and 14%, respectively. The Suez Canal revenues are 3% of Egypt’s GDP. Figure 11: Egypt - key sectors' contribution to GDP (2008-09) Figure 12: MENA GDP by major economies 40% Iran 15% UAE 20% 14% 17% 3% 11% Oil, Gas & Others Agriculture, Forests & Fishing Suez canal Saudi Arabia Egy pt 22% 11% Kuw ait 14% Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail Trade Others Others Qatar 20% Source: CAPMAS 7% 6% Source: CIA factbook The Egyptian pound is a freely floating currency ($1=EGP5.5) but has been fairly stable for the last few years vs. peer emerging market economies. The country’s inflation peaked at 20% in 2008, dropping to 10% in 2009. J.P. Morgan estimates Egypt’s inflation to contract further to 7.4% for 2010. Figure 13: MENA economies GDP per capita (2009) 80,000 GDP per Capita (US$) 75,978 70,000 60,000 Figure 14: MENA economies real GDP growth (2009) 46,582 50,000 32,488 40,000 30,000 24,353 20,000 10,000 18,718 14,871 2,450 Qatar Source: CIA factbook 14 UAE Kuw ait Bahrain Oman KSA Egy pt Kuw ait Saudi Arabia United Arab Iran Liby a Jordan Sy rian Arab Bahrain Oman Yemen Iraq Egy pt Lebanon Qatar -2%-1% 0% -5% Source: CIA factbook 1% 2% 0% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 11% 10% 15% Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Egypt – MENA’s most populated country Despite faster urban population growth compared to rural, 57% of Egyptians are still living in rural areas With its large indigenous population base of 75mn, Egypt accounts for 28% of the combined population of the MENA region at 281mn. Over the years, Egypt's population has been growing at a natural rate of 2% making infrastructure maintenance and improvement all the more challenging for the government. Agriculture is the main identifiable source of income generation and, according to the government statistics, 11% of the country’s workforce is employed in the agricultural sector. This is followed by manufacturing and related services at 5%. Despite high economic growth, living conditions for Egyptians remain modest with c.57% of Egypt's population dwelling in rural areas despite faster urban population growth rate at 2.3% vs. 0.7% growth in the rural population. Poverty is concentrated in rural areas and in Upper Egypt with nearly 20% (CIA factbook) of Egyptians living below the poverty line. Figure 15: Population - Egypt ranks no. 1 in MENA (281mn) Iran Iraq 27% 11% Figure 16: Egypt’s population growing steadily at 2% 85 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 80 Sy ria 7% 75 70 Yemen 9% 65 8% 60 Rest of the Egy pt MENA 28% 10% Source: CIA Factbook 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 E 20 11 E 20 12 E 20 13 E 20 14 E Saudi Arabia Population Grow th Source: CIA Factbook On a positive note, the country boasts one of the youngest populations in the world with an average age of 24 years. According to the Ministry of Investment, over 52% of Egypt’s population is aged between 5-30 years and only 13% is aged above 45 years. Figure 17: Egypt’s population split Figure 18: Egypt – 52% population is aged between 5-30 years 45-75 y ears Less than 5 13% y ears 11% Urban Population 43% 30-45 y ears Rural 24% Population 5-20 y ears 57% 32% 20-30 y ears 20% Source: CAPMAS Source: Ministry of Investments Egypt 15 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 The family culture, particularly in urban areas, is rapidly evolving where the concept of dual income households among the middle and the upper middle class population, which represents over 48% of the population, is slowly becoming more common given low affordability levels of quality living. The middle income segment accounts for 35% of Egypt’s population, while c.12% represents the upper middle segment and only 2% constitute the high income segment based on the housing data provided by Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics use (CAPMAS). Figure 19: Egypt - One of the youngest populations in the world 50 44 Income 29 30 Middle Av erage age 40 40 Figure 20: Egypt - Income segments based on housing types 35% 24 20 Upper Middle 10 12% Source: : Ministry of Investments 16 ca Af ri 51% High Income 2% So ut h Br az il ex ic o M So ut h um Ko re a Low Income Be lgi Ge rm an y 0 Source: CAPMAS Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Egypt property market High demand for housing amid low affordability levels • Egypt’s housing demand is driven by indigenous population growth and rapid urbanization. • We estimate Egypt’s housing deficit to reach 800k in 2010. • Of this, the housing shortfall for middle and upper middle income accounts for 378K. We estimate Egypt's housing shortfall to reach 800K by end2010 and calculate Cairo's share in the total shortfall at 264k units Contributing almost 32% to Egypt’s combined GDP and close to 25% to Egypt’s population, Cairo attracts the highest level of investment and interest in its real estate market. However, with close to 40% of Cairo's population living in informal settlements, the data on residential and commercial real estate is patchy. We rely on information provided by Egypt’s Ministry of Investments, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics use (CAPMAS), CIA Factbook, IMF, UN Development reports and a handful of real estate agencies that provide insight into Cairo’s real estate market including Jones Lang LaSalle, Colliers and ColdWell Banker based in Egypt. Figure 21: Cairo's informal settlements Source: Egyptian-German Participatory Development Programme in Urban Areas (PDP) 17 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Housing deficit in upper middle, middle & low income segment… Existing housing stock in Downtown Cairo is more than 30 years old, where infrastructure constraints make further expansion challenging We forecast residential shortfall for Egypt’s middle income segment at 282K and calculate Cairo’s share in this at 93K units Catering to a large urban population as well as being home to local, national and multinational corporates, Cairo retains its place in Egypt as the commercial hub and the most active and attractive real estate market. The demand for housing comes mostly from local home buyers with over 60% being cash based purchases, as the mortgage market remains largely untapped. Given the less structured expansion and limited infrastructure in Downtown Cairo, the middle, upper middle and high income segment has been actively moving away from the centre and towards Greater Cairo, i.e. the western and eastern extensions of Cairo city. Existing stock of housing is more than 30 years old and development within Downtown Cairo is nearly impossible given space limitations. Given low affordability levels and the under penetrated mortgage market, the new developments have been focused largely on the upper middle and high income customer segment. We expect Egypt’s housing deficit to reach 800K in 2010 We calculate Egypt’s overall housing deficit to reach 800K units in 2010 based on a population growth of 2% and an average household size of 4.5 (see Table 6). Of this, we forecast around half of the housing deficit equal to 405K units in the low income segment which represents 51% of Egypt's overall population base. We calculate housing deficit for the middle income segment, with 35% weight in Egypt’s population, to reach 282k units in 2010, while we expect the housing deficit for the upper middle income segment, 12% of the population, to reach 96k units in 2010. Table 6: Egypt residential market forecast 2008 74,400 2.1% 2009 75,888 2.0% 2010E 77,406 2.0% 2011E 78,954 2.0% 2012E 80,533 2.0% 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 16,388 15,875 16,715 16,060 17,050 16,250 17,391 16,440 17,739 16,630 Demand (000') Actual annual supply (000') 366 175 328 185 334 190 341 190 347 190 Surplus/ (Deficit) (000') -513 -656 -800 -951 -1,109 Population (000') Y/Y Household/unit Required units (000') Supplied units (000') Source: CAPMAS, UN development report, Ministry of Investments and J.P. Morgan estimates …but affordability levels remain low Mortgage market remains untapped with real estate loans accounting for less than 1% of the country's GDP - amongst the lowest vs. peer emerging market economies 18 With real estate loans accounting for less than 1% of Egypt's combined GDP, most home purchases are cash based or with 30-60% cash and the balance financed over 5, 7, 10 or 15 years mostly by the real estate developer itself. Bank lending for real estate remains low on the back of 1) Central bank’s restriction on real estate lending by commercial banks for off-plan units, 2) high interest rates (14-15%) and 3) lack of awareness among general population with regards to alternative modes of funding. Egypt's mortgage loans as a percentage of GDP are also amongst the lowest when compared to other emerging markets with similar income and population dynamics. Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Figure 22: Egypt - Real estate loans as a % of GDP EGP M n 3000 Figure 23: Egypt – mortgage lending as a % of GDP Mortgage Finance Companies Banks Mortgage as % of GDP 14% 0.4% 2500 0.4% 2000 0.3% 1500 0.3% 1000 0.2% 4% 2% 500 0.2% 0% 0 0.1% 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 1Q10 Source: CAPMAS 12.0% 12% 10% 8.0% 8% 6% 4.0% UAE 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% India IndonesiaTurkey Qatar Russia Saudi Egy pt Arabia 2Q10 Source: Central banks, IMF and J.P. Morgan estimates Table 7 highlights average annual income and housing affordability levels across different income segments prevalent in Egypt. According to a study done by USAID, 2% of the population belonging to the high income segment draws an average annual income of EGP820K and given the relatively high savings rate of 35% can afford luxury accommodation ranging between EGP2-7.5mn (US$360K1.2mn). At the other end of the spectrum is the low income segment representing 51% of the population with average annual income of barely EGP90K (US$16K) and a savings rate of close to 3%. Table 7: Egypt - Housing affordability levels across various income segments Income categories High income Upper Middle Middle Low Income Household size 3.8 4.0 4.6 5.0 Ave. annual Family income EGP 820,800 384,000 165,600 90,000 Housing type Luxury Above average Economic Low cost / subsidized housing Unit size (sq m) 170-500 115-200 80-120 40-70 Price Ranges (EGP sq m) 12,000-15,000 6,500-9,500 4,500-6,500 750-1,000 Unit Price range (EGP ) 2mn-7.5mn 750K-1.9mn 360K-780K 30K-70K Source: USAID, Mortgage and Real Estate Advisory Services Project TAPR and J.P. Morgan Estimates 19 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Cairo – Residential shortfall to reach 264k units by end 2010 • We calculate Cairo’s housing deficit at 264k unit based on its 32% share in Egypt’s GDP. • Of the total deficit, we estimate the housing shortfall for the middle and the upper middle income segment to reach 125k by 2010. We calculate Cairo’s residential shortfall using its 32% contribution to Egypt’s total GDP Deriving Cairo's demand based on its 32% (in 2008 Cairo’s GDP contribution accounted for 33% of Egypt combined GDP) contribution to Egypt's combined GDP, we calculate Cairo housing stock deficit at 264k units for 2010E (see Table 8). We see strong demand within the middle and upper middle income segment given the under-leveraged market and growing housing deficit. As a result, out of the overall housing deficit of 264k units, we forecast a housing deficit of 125k units within the middle and upper middle income segment in Cairo and a deficit of 6k units within the high income segment. Over 550k marriage contracts signed annually; another way to gauge housing demand According to CAPMAS, over 550k marriage contracts are signed in Egypt annually of which nearly 100k (JLLS estimates) marriages take place in Cairo alone. While we do not take this into consideration when forecasting annual demand for housing, it nevertheless strengthens our case for a housing deficit in the country. Keeping our assumptions conservative, even if we estimate 20% of these married couples look for new housing given low affordability levels, it still implies demand of nearly 132k units annually. Of this c. 62k represents housing demand in the middle and upper middle income segment and 3k in the high income segment. Figure 24: Egypt- Annual marriage contracts 700 Figure 25: Egypt- Housing demand from new marriages 000' 150 600 100 000' units 62 67 68 43 46 47 15 16 16 500 50 400 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Annual registered marriage contracts Source: CAPMAS 20 2008 - 2007 High Income 2008 Upper Middle Source: CAPMAS and J.P. Morgan estimates Middle 2009 Low Income Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 8: Egypt and Cairo's residential demand by income segments Estimates in 000' As a % of total demand Overall shortfall Egypt Cairo 33% of Egypt 100% housing deficit 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 513 656 800 951 1,109 169 216 264 314 366 Low Income Egypt Cairo Middle Income Egypt Cairo Upper Middle Egypt Cairo High End Egypt Cairo 51% 51% 35% 35% 12% 12% 2% 2% 260 332 405 481 561 86 110 134 159 185 181 231 282 335 390 60 76 93 111 129 62 79 96 115 134 20 26 32 38 44 12 16 19 23 26 4 5 6 7 9 Source: CAPMAS, UN development report, Ministry of Investments and J.P. Morgan estimates; Note: Cairo demand based on Cairo’s contribution in Egypt's total GDP at 33%. Cairo – among the world’s top 10 most populated cities According to a UN development report, nearly 1,000 people migrate to Cairo per week with 40% of the people living in informal settlements Bursting at the seams, Cairo is amongst the world’s top 15 densely populated cities and the largest within MENA with nearly 18mn people. Cairo is also Egypt's main residential and commercial market given its strategic location, making it the second most attractive location after Dubai in MENA. Being the commercial hub and the capital of Egypt, Cairo attracts a significant number of internal immigrants with over 1,000 people moving into the capital every week according to a UN development report. Nearly c. 40% of Cairo’s inhabitants live in informal settlements and the city is home to 3 of the world’s 30 largest slums according to the same report. Figure 26: World's most populated cities Cairo Los Angeles Manila Sao Paulo New York Mumbai Delhi Mex ico City Seoul Toky o Population in Mn 18 21 22 33 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Source: http://amolife.com/great-places/top-10-largest-cities-in-the-world.html Cairo's rapidly developing suburban communities Originally designed to accommodate 5mn people, Cairo has now become one of the most populated cities in the world with over 18mn people and one of highest densities at c. 34,000 inhabitants/sq km and going as high as 100,000 inhabitants/sq km in certain areas. Hence, in the wake of geographic and infrastructural limitations, the government initiated a plan to reduce the growing congestion in Cairo's downtown and set up the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) in 1979. 21 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 9: Suburban communities surrounding Downtown Cairo and their target population City 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Targeted Number of Inhabitants Land Area (sq m) 6th of October New Cairo Sadat Obour Sheikh Zayed 10th of Ramadan Badr 15th of May Shorouq 3,750,000 2,000,000 750,000 600,000 500,000 500,000 430,000 250,000 50,000 394,177,800 283290000 481,783,209 64752000 42088800 384,465,000 67584900 33590100 43707600 Total 8,830,000 1,795,439,409 Source: New Urban Communities Authority and JLLS There are 9 satellite cities surrounding Downtown Cairo with 6th of October City and New Cairo being the most preferred locations for people relocating out of Downtown Cairo Figure 27: Cairo’s outskirts in the 1970s Source: World Bank 22 The NUCA’s main objective is redistribution of inhabitants away from the narrow strip of the Nile Valley running alongside Downtown Cairo by developing suburban communities surrounding Cairo. According to Jones Lang LaSalle (JLLS), a leading real estate agency, the ultimate plan is to accommodate 9 million people into these suburban communities. There are currently 9 major satellite cities surrounding Cairo – the western and the eastern extension of Downtown Cairo. Among these, 6th of October City and New Cairo City with c. 677mn sq m in total land area are in heavy demand with NUCA’s target population for the two cities ultimately at c. 5.7mn. See Table 9 for details. Figure 28: Developed suburban communities around Cairo by 2000s Source: World Bank Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Residential prices have been relatively stable for middle income housing Residential prices have been stable for middle income housing given under supply, while prices for high end housing segment have come off by 35-40% in the last 18months Starting late 2008, the global financial crisis did trigger a correction in Cairo’s high and upper income housing segment. However, prices within the middle income segment have remained relatively stable, underpinned by the housing shortfall and limited supply albeit limited affordability levels. TMG, which is the largest developer catering to Cairo’s housing demand within the organized middle and upper middle income segment, told us that despite demand slowed in 2009, the company increased average prices by c. 3% and further by 6%YTD. Figure 29: Cairo residential prices for select locations EGP /Sq M 16000 15,000 14000 12,000 12000 10000 8000 6000 8,000 8,000 7,000 5,000 4000 6,500 4,000 3,000 6,000 4,000 3,000 2000 4,500 2,000 0 Zamalek New Cairo 6th of October Mohandessin High Heliopolis Maadi Nasr City Low Source: JLLS Contrary to this, Palm Hills Development that has historically been focusing primarily on the high end market lowered its prices by as much as 40% in 2009 in order to reach a larger target market in the face of more saturated demand from the high end segment. However, given that the majority of the property transactions are cash driven and for owner occupation, the number of contract cancellations (peaked in 4Q08 and 1Q09) has remained relatively low. Residential prices vary significantly across different regions in Cairo, where prices for certain locations in Downtown are still at a premium despite infrastructural and logistical challenges. For example, residential property in Zamalek and Mohandessin in Downtown Cairo still trade at a premium relative to properties in some of the new suburban communities in Cairo’s western and eastern extensions. Within Cairo’s western extension, 6th of October (30-90 minutes from Downtown Cairo depending on the flow of traffic) is a popular location for inhabitants relocating out of Downtown. On the eastern front, New Cairo is home to a large number of working class (see Table 8, Figure 27 and 28 for details). TMG's mega mixed-used communities Madinaty (under early stages of construction) and Al Rehab (fully developed community with a population of c. 120k, a commercial district with 6 banks, 3 local and 3 international schools as well as a large retail area) and Emaar's projects are all located within New Cairo, while the majority of Palm Hills Development are located in the western region in 6th of October City and beyond. 23 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Residential rents, like prices, also vary from one location to another. However, average residential rents are high in Zamalek averaging at EGP750 sq m (US$136/sq m). Zamalek is located along the narrow strip of River Nile and is the heart of Downtown. In contrast Nasr City, which is further from the Cairo downtown, offers one of the lowest residential rents averaging at EGP300/sq m p.a. (US$55/sq m p.a.). Figure 30: Cairo rental rates for select locations EGP Sq M p.a. 900 1000 800 600 720 720 600 480 660 480 400 540 540 360 360 6th of Heliopolis 300 360 240 200 0 Zamalek New Cairo Maadi High Mohandessin Nasr City Low October Source: JLLS Residential rents in 6th of October City, which is the largest suburban community, range between EGP360-600/sq m (US$65-109/sq m). The rental yields across Cairo and greater Cairo (western and eastern extension) vary between 8-15%, where yields are particularly high in Maadi, which houses major oil and gas multinationals, embassies and diplomatic agencies. 24 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Cairo Commercial - Office space remains undersupplied • Cairo’s commercial sector remains fragmented with limited supply of Grade A office space particularly in Downtown Cairo. • Demand for prime commercial space remains high with less than 1% vacancy rate and rental yields in the range of 12-15%. • Over the next 4 years, we estimate c.1.4mn of new supply to come on stream, which should be able to offset the deficit in the sector. Commercial space within Downtown Cairo remains limited with vacancy rates at less than 1% The demand for the commercial sector in Egypt is characterized by Egypt’s stable GDP growth of 5+% and large population base that continues to attract inflow of major multinational and regional corporates into the market. The country is increasingly seen as the preferred destination of major multination corporates and regional businesses given its positioning as the mid point between Africa and the Middle East offering access to nearly 280mn people within the MENA region. Egypt’s capital, Cairo, serves as the commercial hub, however availability of prime space within Downtown Cairo is constrained and the supply remains fragmented across Downtown and greater Cairo with favorable vacancy rates of less than 0.5%. Table 10: Cairo - Existing office supply for select locations Name Nile City City Stars Smart Village Pyramids Heights WTC Rent in USD / sq m / month 68.4 45 34.2 28.8 25.2 GLA (sq m) 100,000 70,000 390,000 180,000 19,000 Sample Occupiers Orascom, AIG, P7G Booz & Co, Maersk Oracle, Vodafone KPMG, IBM Australian Embassy Location Nile Corniche Nasr City Cairo-Alex, Desert road Cairo-Alex, Desert road Downtown Type Mixed-use Mixed-use Business park Business park Tower Source: JLLS and J.P. Morgan estimates We estimate new office supply of 1.5mn sq m to come on stream over the next 4 years Given infrastructural constraints in Downtown Cairo, an increasing number of multinational and local companies are relocating towards Cairo’s western and eastern extensions. Cairo has nearly 800k sq m of Grade A office space of which over 570k sq m office space is located within Smart Village and Pyramids Heights in the 6th of October City (30-90 minutes from Downtown Cairo). Many local corporates still located in Downtown Cairo are looking to move facilities and their staff to greater Cairo in order to avoid traffic congestion and infrastructure constraints within Downtown Cairo. Table 11: Cairo - Future supply of Grade A commercial space Location Eastown /Westown Smart Village Phase 3 Stone Park Cairo Festival City Capital Business Park Park Plaza GLA (sq m) 920,000 293,000 150,000 70,000 50,000 15,000 Expected Year of Completion 2013 onwards 2012 onwards 2013 2011 2012 2012 Developer SODIC /Solidere Smart Villages Company Rooya Group Al Futtaim Cayan Investment / Dorra Group Al Arabia / Al Ahly Source: JLLS 25 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 An estimated 1.5mn sq m of new Grade A office supply in the pipeline is expected to come on stream over the next 4 years. We expect this to be absorbed with robust FDI flows and continued inflow of new corporates setting up presence in Cairo. Egypt’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows have remained robust despite the global financial crisis, where it attracted nearly US$8bn in 2009 after a peak of US$13bn in 2007-08. About 41% of the FDI flows in the last 5 yrs have been spent on establishing new corporates, where Egypt has seen nearly 6k new companies being set up on average annually in the last 5 years. YTD 3,500 new companies have already been registered according to the Ministry of Investment. Figure 31: Egypt - Number of newly established corporates 10 8 '000 8 6 6 6 4 Figure 32: Egypt - FDI flows 6 4 3 3 2 0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 1H10 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 13 11 8 6 4 2 2003-04 2004-05 Number of new ly established companies Source: Ministry of Investments 26 2005-06 2006-07 FDI Flow s (US$Bn) Source: Ministry of Investments 2007-08 2008-09 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Cairo Retail and Hospitality • Egypt’s capital Cairo faces a shortage of destination malls, where per capita retail space at 0.03/sq m is the lowest in GCC+Egypt. • Key retail outlets and open retail spaces occupy c. 314k sq m of GLA vs. 3mn sq m of retail GLA in Dubai. • Over the next 3 years, we estimate c. 500k sq m of retail space to come on stream, taking Cairo’s retail GLA per capita to 0.044/sq m. Cairo Retail – limited GLA for high-end retail Cairo’s retail GLA at 0.03 sq m per capita is amongst the lowest vs. its GCC peers Unlike Dubai, Egypt does not have any major destination malls with the existing Gross Leasable Area (GLA) for the high end segment at only close to 314k sq m vs. Dubai retail GLA at over 3mn sq m. The lack of retail space can be gauged by retail space per capita, which, at 0.03 sq m per capita, is well below Riyadh at 0.52 sq m or Qatar at 1 sq m, and with Dubai being at the other end of the spectrum with the highest retail space per capita in MENA region at 1.9 sq m. The City Stars in Cairo is the largest mall with a total built up area (BUA) of over 700k sq m but GLA of only close to 150k sq m. Figure 33: Retail GLA per capita across GCC Dubai 1.90 1.06 1.07 Bahrain Qatar Abu Dhabi 0.87 0.52 Riy adh Kuw ait 0.30 0.14 Oman 0.03 Cairo 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 GCC Retail Mall GLA per capita (2010) 1.6 1.8 2 Source: JLLS, Cairo and J.P. Morgan estimates Table 12: Cairo - Existing retail GLA Name CityStars Dandy Mall Maadl City Center Nile City First Mall GLA (sq m) 150,000 90,000 25,000 12,000 10,000 Rent in USD / sq m p.a. 700-900 672-888 583-842 691-886 691-907 Location Nasr City Cairo-Alex road Maadi Nile Corniche Giza Description Regional mall Community mall Community mall Small annex o office complex Speciality luxury goods mall Source: JLLS, Colliers and J.P. Morgan estimates; Note: The above is note an exhaustive list of retail space across Cairo Over 500k sq m of high end retail GLA is in pipeline with planned delivery over the next 3 years. Beyond 2013, SODIC/Solidere are set to start phased delivery of the retail space in ‘Eastown and Westown’ within the 6th of October City in Cairo. With a total GLA of over 377k sq m, this incremental GLA takes Cairo’s retail development pipeline to nearly 1mn sq m over the next 4-5 years. Rents for the high end retail space ranges between US$580-900/sq m per annum. 27 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 13: Cairo and Greater Cairo - Future retail supply Name Eastown & Westown Mall of Africa Cairo Gate Cairo Festival City GLA (sq m) 377,000 176,000 250,000 160,000 Developer SODIC / Solidere Fawaz El Hukair Emaar Al Futtaim Type Two city centers Shopping mall Shopping mall Mixed-use Location 6th October / New Cairo 6th October Cairo-Alex Desert Road New Cairo Year of Completion 2013 onwards 2010 2012 onwards 2011 Source: JLLS, Colliers and J.P. Morgan estimates Hospitality 13mn people visited Egypt in 2009 helping Egypt generate US$13bn in tourism revenues As Egypt’s business hub as well as a popular tourist destination, Egypt attracts business as well as leisure travelers, where annual visitor traffic into Egypt reached 13mn in 2009 up from 4mn in 2002. Close to 73% of these represent travelers from European countries, while Arab travelers account for 15% with American travelers at 4%. Given the high number of travelers, Egypt’s tourist receipts totaled US$13bn in 2009, up from US$8bn in 2006. Figure 34: Egypt - Annual leisure and business visitors 100% Mn 80% 60% 69% 40% 20% 0% Figure 35: Egypt - Tourism revenues 72% 75% 17 12 73% 7 21% 18% 15% 15% 2006 2007 2008 2009 Arabs Americans Total 2 14 11 9 10 8 8 6 4 Europeans Others Source: CAPMAS 13 12 2006 2007 2008 2009 Tourism Receipts (US$ Bn) Source: CAPMAS According to Colliers, there were a total of 175 hotels in Cairo with close to 14,600 room keys in 2008. 3 star hotels account for 32% of the total hotels supply at 46 3 star hotels followed by 27 5 star hotels. However, in terms of room keys, 5 star hotel rooms has the largest share at 59% and c. 8,600 room keys followed by 4 star hotel room keys at 2,400 accounting for 17% of the total hotel rooms supply. Occupancy levels in 5 star hotels remain above 85% with average room rate at US$125-150 per night. Figure 36: Cairo - Hotel room keys Source: Colliers 28 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Key players - TMG is the largest Housing development from the organized sector account for 10% of the total housing development in Egypt where TMG has historically been the only developer within the organized sector targeting largely the middle and upper middle income segment According to the 2008 Egypt Housing Survey, about 90% of the country's housing supply is built informally by what the market refers to as the secret competition. According to the survey only 10% of the housing supply has been built by professionals. Within the organized real estate sector, TMG is the leading Egyptian community real estate developer in terms of total land bank at 50mn sq m, sales backlog at EGP25bn and housing development of 57,000 units (out of this 32k units are sold units under construction). This is followed by Palm Hills Development, Egypt’s upscale developer, with a total land bank of 49mn sq m. Six of October Development and Investment Company (SODIC) is relatively small with total landbank of 5.8mn sq m and development concentrated in Greater Cairo. Emaar Properties’ Egyptian subsidiary, Emaar Misr, is one of the leading international investors in Egypt’s real estate market with a total development portfolio of US$5.55bn. Table 14: TMG - Competitive landscape Market Cap US$ bn Talaat Mostafa Palm Hills Six of October Dev. & Inv. C. Comparative valuations Ave. Traded Value P/B P/E US$ mn (6Mnth) 2010E x 2010E x 2,780 1,064 523 8.92 1.68 1.75 0.61 1.24 1.17 Business mix Land Bank Development sq m mn type Target market 8.1 7.2 14.8 Middle & Upper middle High-end High end 50 City & community complexes 49 Villas 5.8 Residential & commercial Source: Company reports, Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates Figure 37: Geographical distribution of land for Egypt's top 3 real estate developers 100% 80% 7% 4% 14% 49% 60% 40% 100% 89% 20% 37% 0% TMG PHD Cairo Outside Cairo SODIC International Source: Company reports 29 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 This page is intentionally blank 30 MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Talaat Mostafa Group Holding: Company Background Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] 31 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Talaat Mostafa Group - Changing Cairo's landscape Company background and shareholder structure Talaat Mostafa Group (TMG) is Egypt’s largest real estate developer with a total landbank of 50mn sq m and 20-year track record in property development. TMG develops large scale integrated city and community complexes mainly located in the Greater Cairo region. Apart from integrated community complexes, TMG also develops and manages luxury hotels and resorts. It currently has 3 hotels with 684 room keys and plans to raise this to 5,000 room keys in 5 years, of which 1,725 room keys are committed and under development. The group has completed development of 3 community complexes, while 2 other community complexes (Al Rehab 1 and Al Rabwa 1) are partially competed with development of their subsequent phases currently under way. Figure 38: TMG - Organization structure Source: Company annual report 32 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 TMG was created in June 2007 as a holding company for TMG group’s various real estate related subsidiaries. As a result of the organizational restructuring, the Arab Company, Alexandria Real Estate and San Stefano were consolidated into a new Holding company called TMG. TMG was formed as a result of organizational restructuring completed in Sep 2007 subsequent to which its shares were listed on the Cairo Stock Exchange in Nov 2007 In November 2007 following the organizational restructuring process, TMG offered 395mn shares through a retail offering (IPO). The institutional and international investors were offered 330mn shares at EGP11.6/sh, while the retail offering for 65mn shares was made at EGP11/sh. The institutional and international offering was 17x over subscribed, while the retail offering was oversubscribed by 41x. Within the real estate development sector in Egypt, TMG is the largest listed player with a total market cap of US$2.8bn and average daily traded value of US$9mn (6-month average). TMG RE and Tourism Investment, which include the Talaat Mostafa family and the Saudi group (Bin Laden, Saudi Arabia), owns a 49.85% stake in TMG. Apart from the strategic shareholders, other prominent shareholders include Misr Insurance Company and Banque Misr with 4% and 3% ownership in the company, respectively. The stock is fairly liquid with a free float of c.43%. Talaat Mostafa Family and Saudi Bin Laden group each own 25% strategic shareholding in TMG Figure 39: TMG Shareholding structure Others 43% Banque Misr 3% TMG Inv estments (Including Talaat Misr Insurance Moustafa family and Company Saudi Group) 4% 50% Source: Company reports and Bloomberg Management TMG is recognized as a strong brand name in Egypt with its long history of development and timely delivery of committed units The TMG group’s history goes back 38 years, when Mr. Talaat Mostafa started his construction business with his three sons. The real estate division was established in the late 80s when Talaat Mostafa’s youngest son Mr. Hisham Talaat Mostafa saw the growing opportunity within the real estate sector and formed the real estate arm. The formation of the real estate division coincided well with the Egyptian government's programme to expand Cairo and relocate Downtown inhabitants towards Cairo's suburban outskirts. Talaat Mostafa’s eldest son Mr. Tarek Talaat Mostafa took control of the construction business, while the second son ventured into the agricultural division. 33 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 In September 2008, Tarek Talaat Mostafa was appointed as Chairman and Managing Director of Talaat Mostafa Group Holding. Prior to that, he was the Chairman and Managing Director of Alexandria Construction Company, one of the largest contractors in the MENA Region. He is also the Executive Chairman of other companies such as Alexandria for Electrical Works, Alexandria for Glass Manufacturing, Alexandria for Tunnels and Alexandria for Construction and Decoration, in addition to being a board member of a number of the real estate development companies in the group. He is an elected member of the Egyptian Parliament and chairs its Housing and Infrastructure Committee, a member of the National Democratic Party, the Board of the Egyptian Construction Contractors Union, and the National Union of the Chambers of Commerce. Over 3,000 people are employed directly at TMG with about 60,000 on-site workforce. Self-funded business model – core in Egypt Mortgage financing remains untapped in Egypt where the company’s self-funded off-plan business model has worked well TMG relies largely on a self funded business model with little upfront funding requirement to develop city and community complexes. The payment for purchased land parcels does not entail initial cash outlay and is typically settled in kind in the form of residential apartments to the Ministry of Housing (e.g. Madinaty and Al Rehab). The upfront costs involving development plan and initial infrastructure are funded via equity or debt, while the overall project construction cost is financed through customer advances that are typically linked to cash outflow. The company does not start construction unless a considerable portion of the planned units in a particular phase of the project are sold out in order to ensure liquidity headroom for at least 12-15 months ahead of construction. The customer payments on sold units are structured to coincide with the planned construction expenses. Table 15: TMG - Sold BUA and customer advances for key projects Madinaty* Al Rehab 1 & 2 Al Rabwa Total Total BUA sq m mn 17.1 2.8 0.12 Sold BUA sq m mn 4.8 1.2 0.01 Sold BUA As a % of total 29% 43% 59% Customer advances EGP mn 15,628 4,310 315 20.02 6.01 31% 20,253 Source: Company reports. * Madinaty BUA includes district and sector services but excludes land for Mega developers About 87% of the unit sales in Madinaty are made using one of the long-term financing arrangements offered by TMG and backed by local and regional banks, allowing customers to pay in installments. The customer payments depend on applied financing schemes. Following the contract signing, the customer deposits a series of post dated cheques with TMG that represent the monthly and annual installments that add up to the remaining price of the purchased unit including financing cost. The payments by means of post-dated cheques are structured so that the instalments during the initial 4-year period prior to delivery of the unit generally cover all of TMG’s construction outlays. 34 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 16: TMG - Typical payment plan Cash Price - Four Years Unit Reservation Contract signing Annual instalments Delivery instalment Monthly instalments Tenure Ten year payment scheme Unit Reservation Contract signing Annual instalments Annual instalments Delivery instalment Monthly instalments Tenure +3 months +12 months +45 months +3 months +12 months +48 months +45 months % collected 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% # of instalments 1 1 4 1 48 Cumulative collection 10.50% 10.50% 42.00% 10.50% 26.50% 100.00% % collected 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 4.8% 7.0% # of instalments 1 1 4 6 1 48 72 Cumulative collection 7.00% 7.00% 28.00% 29.00% 7.00% 11.20% 10.80% 100.00% Source: Company reports Customer installments are linked to construction cost outlays thus allowing TMG to keep its gearing at reasonable levels The post-dated cheques relating to payments falling due after the scheduled date of delivery of the unit represent a combination of an embedded finance charge covering TMG’s costs of providing the financing arrangement and TMG’s profit on the sale. If TMG does not utilise the cheques in connection with these facilities, TMG retains the embedded finance cheque for its own account. TMG has entered into arrangements with local and regional banks that allow it to provide financing to purchasers of its residential units for periods over 4 years and up to 10 and/or 15 years, which are longer periods than is typical in Egypt. TMG has entered into two types of financing facilities that support these financing arrangements. If these financing arrangements are used, the purchase price includes an embedded finance charge. 35 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Key Projects - Madinaty is the largest The Madinaty project, in New Cairo, represents 66% of TMG’s land bank and 62% of our SOTP value In its 20-year track record, TMG has completed construction and handover of over 25,000 units, implying 4mn sq m in BUA providing accommodation to over 130,000 inhabitants residing in the Greater Cairo region. Among the company’s completed projects, the largest is Al Rehab 1 (Ph 1-5) City located in New Cairo with over 22,000 units and 120k inhabitants. Figure 40: TMG - Landbank split by project Figure 41: TMG - Landbank split by geography 10% Outside Cairo 2% 8% 14% Cairo 78% 66% Saudi Arabia 14% 8% Madinaty (Cairo) Riy adh and Jeddah Al Rehab (Cairo) Hotel projects Al Rabw a (Cairo) Source: Company reports Source: Company reports Al Rehab 1 (Phases 1-5) was completed in 2007 and is a completely self sufficient city within the New Cairo region. Among the key ongoing projects, Madinaty is by far the largest with a total land area of 33mn sq m, accounting for 66% of the company’s total landbank. Madinaty was launched in 2006 with the first set of residential handovers due in 2H 2010. Table 17: TMG - Projects snapshot Completed projects May Fair Al Rawda Al Khadra Virgenia Beach Al Rehab 1 (Ph 1-5) Al Rabwa 1 Built Up Area sq m Sold BUA as % of total Residential type Total units 592,200 84,000 365,400 3,000,000 201,190 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Villas Villas&Apartments Villas Villas&Apartments Villas 253 1,185 368 22,758 649 19,421648 2,728,855 118,320 1,214,075 29%* 43% 59% Sales exp. in 4Q10 Villas&Apartments Villas&Apartments Villas Villas&Apartments 107,158 15,060** 340 4,315 Start date 1996 1994 Expected Population Completion Location 2005 1987 1995 2007 2008 El Sherouk in New Cairo Alexandria North Coast New Cairo Sixth of October City, Cairo 1,265 6,245 N.A. 120,000 3,240 2020 2011/2017 2012 2012 New Cairo New Cairo Sixth of October City, Cairo Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 600,000 80,000 1,725 16,800 Ongoing Projects Madinaty Al Rehab 1 (Ph6) & 2 Al Rabwa Nasamat Al Riyadh 2006 1996/2006 2006 2009 * Madinaty – BUA also includes land for Mega developers but sold residential BUA calculated as a % of total residential BUA which is 16mn sq m ** Al Rehab - Includes units under construction for Phase 6 of Al Rehab 1 and Phases 7-10 in Al Rehab 2. Also includes 600k sq m Land for Mega developers Source: Company reports Madinaty and Al Rehab account for the majority of TMG’s SOTP at 74%. Nasamat Al Riyadh in Saudi Arabia accounts for 5% of the combined SOTP, while Al Rabwa represents 2%. Hospitality residential projects and the hospitality portfolio account for the remaining 20%. 36 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 At end 1Q10, TMG’s sales backlog reached EGP24bn with total customer advances against this sale at EGP20bn. The customer advances from Madinaty at end 1Q10 totaled at EGP15bn followed by Al Rehab (1&2) at EGP4.3bn. Figure 42: TMG - Ongoing projects heat map Source: Company prospectus Madinaty – 62% of TMG’s SOTP Once completed in 6 overlapping phases by 2020, Madinaty will be home to 600k people with over 100k apartments and c. 6,700 villas With total land area of 33.6mn sq m and BUA of 19mn sq m (excludes attributable land area for villas and includes land for Mega developers), TMG launched Madinaty in mid 2006. The construction is planned in 6 overlapping phases with the first set of handovers within phase 1 due for completion and handover starting 2Q 2010. Madinaty entails construction and handover of c. 100k apartments and 6,793 villas over the next 9 years with final completion by 2020. The payment for the allotted land parcel for this project will be made to the Ministry of Housing in kind in the form of completed residential units accounting for 2.7mn BUA of the total project’s residential BUA of 16.8mn Sq. This cost will be recognized pro rata at the end of each phase. According to the most recent results, 29% of the residential BUA in Madinaty has already been sold with roughly EGP15bn in advances from customers against this sale. 29% of Madinaty's total residential BUA is already sold Revenue and project costs We use EGP11,900/sq m (US$2164/sq m) as blended villa prices and average of EGP5,900/sq m (US$1073) for apartment sales across Phases 1-6 in Madinaty. Furthermore, inline with management guidance, we use villa gross margin at 45% and apartment margin at 30%. Unlike some of the other TMG projects, Madinaty is not exempt from tax, hence we apply a 20% corporate tax to the company cashflows to derive our DCF value. 37 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 18: Phased revenue recognition from Madinaty EGP mn Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Total Residential 2010E 3,412 3,412 Revenue on Residential units and land for Mega developers 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 4,523 3,412 5,635 11,194 1,711 1,711 3,423 5,990 4,279 566 566 6,127 5,844 6,127 6,410 1,422 1,067 1,067 3,595 2,339 4,523 Land for Mega Developers Total revenue 3,412 4,523 2018E Total BUA* sq m mn 3.52 2.68 2.94 1.70 1.10 1.47 13.42 3,978 7,913 20,455 10,334 13,184 16,622 5,490 3,274 2,056 10,821 3,300 3,300 3,300 6,600 6,600 6,600 9,900 6.6 7,278 11,213 23,755 16,934 19,784 23,222 20,721 20.02 Phase BUA** as % of total 29% 16% 23% 17% 6% 9% 100% * BUA excludes BUA of 2.7mn sq m attributable to the Ministry as land cost ** Phase BUA calculation excludes BUA allocated for Mega developers Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates To discount cash flows from Madinaty, we use a phaseweighted WACC of 15.75% At EGP17.4bn, Madinaty accounts for 62% of our TMG cumulated SOTP value. We use a weighted average cost of capital to discount cash flows from Madinaty that ranges between 15.3% - 16.5% depending upon planned completion. For example the cash flows from Phase 6 which is due for completion by 2020 are discounted using a WACC of 16.5%, while Phase 1, which is due for completion by 2013, is discounted using a WACC of 15.3%. Figure 43: Madinaty - Projected Cash flows 30,000 EGP Mn 10,000 8,000 20,000 6,000 10,000 4,000 - 2,000 (10,000) - (20,000) (2,000) 2010E 2011E 2012E Cash Inflow 2013E 2014E Cash Outflow 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Net Change in cash Source: J.P. Morgan estimates Al Rehab 1 and 2 – 12% of TMG’s SOTP value Al Rehab 1 complex is TMG’s first fully-integrated community with over 22k residential units and c. 120k residents. It has 3 local and 3 international schools, 6 banks, 2 shopping malls and small area allocated for commercial use. The final phase 5 in Al Rehab 1 was completed in 2007, while Phase 6 with 633 villas and a BUA of 224k sq m will be completed by 2011. Subsequent to the completion of Phase 1-5 and launch of Phase 6, TMG also initiated Al Rehab 2 under Phases 7-10 with total residential BUA of 2.1mn sq m and planned completion by 2017. 38 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 19: Al Rehab 1 (Phase 6) and Al Rehab 2 (Phase 7- 10) Projected revenue recognition EGP mn Phase 6 Phase 7 Phase 8 Phase 9 Phase 10 Total Residential Land for Mega Developers Total revenue 2010E 1,341 777 84 2,202 Revenue on Residential units and land for Mega developers 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 1,455 777 777 724 84 84 1,123 1,123 1,155 156 156 880 1,460 1,025 744 744 744 2,317 861 2,004 1,280 2,779 2,203 1,769 1,137 1,137 Total BUA* sq m mn 0.22 0.48 0.58 0.51 0.32 2.12 2018E 381 992 611 1,369 739 1,501 1,130 837 499 0.61 2,583 3,309 1,472 3,372 2,019 4,280 3,334 2,606 1,636 2.73 Phase BUA** as % of total 11% 23% 27% 24% 15% 100% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates; BUA only reflects the residential part of the project Al Rehab 1 which was completed in 2007, is TMG's largest completed community complex housing over 120,000 people Post completion of Al Rehab 2, the total population of this community complex is expected to reach 200k inhabitants. Upon completion of Al Rehab 2, the total covered area for this integrated complex will reach 10mn sq m with a total BUA of 5.7mn sq m including land for Mega developers. Up to 1Q10, Al Rehab 1 Phase 6 was 29% sold, while Al Rehab 2 (Phases 7-10) is 43% sold with first set of handovers starting end 2Q 2010 onwards. For Al Rehab 1 (Phase 6), we use blended villas prices of EGP13,000/sq m (US$2,364/sq m), while for Al Rehab 2 (Phase 7-10), we use blended villa prices of EGP12,500/sq m (US$2,273/sq m) and average apartment prices of EGP5,360/sq m (US$975/sq m). Figure 44: Al Rehab 1 (Phase 6) and Al Rehab 2 (Phase 7-10) projected cash flows 4,000 EGP Mn 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,000 1,000 1,000 (1,000) 500 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E - (2,000) (3,000) 2018E Cash Inflow Cash Outflow Net Change in cash (500) Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates Al Rehab 1 (Phase 6) and Al Rehab 2 (Ph 7-10) account for 12% of our TMG consolidated SOTP value. For our DCF calculation, we use a Phase-weighted WACC of 15.6%. Al Rabwa 2 – 2% of TMG’s SOTP value Al Rabwa 2 is 59% sold with planned completion in 2012 Al Rabwa 2 is an extension to Al Rabwa 1 with a relatively small BUA of 119k sq m translating into 340 units. Al Rabwa 1, which was completed and handed over in 2004, is an exclusive compound, with 649 villas, built for the high end market. Al Rabwa 2, which is due for completion by 2012, is 59% sold. The project accounts for less than 1% of TMG’s planned BUA across various projects and 2% of the company’s combined SOTP value. 39 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 20: Al Rabwa 2 – Projected revenue recognition EGP mn Total Residential Rental income Total 2010E 322 2011E 322 322 322 Revenue on Residential units and rental income 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 1,250 2 3 4 4 5 1,252 3 4 4 5 2017E 2018E 5 5 Total BUA* sq m 119,071 4,558 5 5 123,629 Phase BUA** as % of total 96% 4% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates TMG’s first international project – Nasamat Al Riyadh; 5% of the SOTP Nasamat Al Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, is a first step towards geographical diversification. The project accounts for 4% of TMG’s total landbank and 5% of the company’s SOTP value TMG formed a 50:50 Joint Venture with Saudi Arabia’s Al Mehedeb, AlFwazan and Al Oula Development Co. through its Saudi based subsidiary, Areez Limited in order to pursue geographical diversification. Nasamat Al Riyadh is TMG’s first community style project in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia with a total residential BUA of 1.4mn sq m translating into c. 2,031 villas and 2,112 apartments. The planned project stretches over 3mn sq m of land and the company owns additional 1mn adjacent to the project, which is yet to be designed. Apart from the above, the company also owns a 2.8mn sq m of land plot in Jeddah put aside for future development. We calculate TMG's share of this land bank at 1.4mn sq m based on its 50% share in the Saudi Joint Venture though we exclude this from our valuations as development plans on this land bank have not yet been finalized. The company picked Saudi Arabia as the first market for geographical diversification given its strong underlying demand dynamics with a young indigenous population. Riyadh is Saudi Arabia’s fastest growing housing market with annual population growth averaging at 2.2%. According to the Riyadh Development Authority, Riyadh needs nearly 18,000 units of annual supply over the next 20 years to fill up the housing deficit. With high pent up demand, Riyadh has been one of the few places where residential prices and rents have remained stable in the prime residential areas. TMG also has 2.8mn sq m of landbank in Jeddah, though we do not include this in our valuations, as the company is yet to finalize development on the same TMG recently reported that the Saudi Real Estate authority has approved release of off-plan unit sales in the Nasamat Al Riyadh project. As per the company release, this makes TMG the first developer in KSA to be able to sell off-plan as approved by the real estate development committee formed in mid 2009. We expect a phased launch in Nasamat Al Riyadh to start from 4Q10 with a reported construction timeline of 3 years post launch. With TMG’s share of EGP1.3bn in project DCF, Nasamat accounts for 5% of our TMG combined SOTP value. To calculate our DCF, we use a WACC of 15.5% and forecast revenue contribution to start flowing in from end-2013 onwards. Table 21: Nasamat Al Riyadh - Projected revenue recognition (TMG’s share in the JV at 50%) EGP mn Residential Commercial Rental Income Total 2013E 1,316 34 25 1,374 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 40 Revenue on Residential units and rental income 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 1,316 1,356 34 35 87 119 121 159 1,437 1,509 121 159 202 Total BUA* sq m 1,411,783 67,416 116,006 202 1,595,205 2018E Phase BUA** as % of total 89% 4% 7% Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Hotels and Resorts – 20% of TMG’s SOTP TMG has 3 operational hotels and resorts with c. 684 keys, which is likely to increase to 2,600 room keys by 2015 TMG currently has 3 operational hotels with 684 room keys through its hotels and resorts management subsidiary Arab Company for Hotels and Tourism Investment (ICON). The fourth hotel, Nile Hotel with 191 room keys, is due for completion by 3Q10. The company plans to raise the total number of room keys to 5,000 of which 1,725 room keys are committed and under development. For our SOTP calculation, we include only the committed and under development hotel projects. Figure 45: TMG - Revenue from hotel and resorts 1750 1550 1350 1150 950 750 550 350 150 EGP Mn 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Four Seasons Sharm Al Sheikh Nile Plaza- 2004 Nile Hotel -2010 Others 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E San Stefano-2007 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates TMG’s hotel and resort portfolio benefits from reasonable occupancy levels and healthy operating margins given robust visitor traffic into Egypt annually. The existing portfolio allows TMG to tap the business and tourism traffic flow particularly into Cairo and Sharm el-Sheikh – Egypt’s major tourist destination. Table 22: TMG - Hotels and Resorts portfolio Ownership Location Room Keys CBRE Valuation* Completion Four Seasons Sharm elSheikh 100% Sharm el-Sheikh 200 2000 May-02 Four Seasons Nile Plaza 56% Cairo 365 2440 Aug-04 San Stefano Grand Plaza 85% Alexandria 127 2360 Jul-07 Nile Hotel 100% Cairo 118 524 2010 Sharm el Sheikh extension 100% Sharm el-Sheikh 96 N.A. 2012 Four Seasons Luxor 100% Luxor 191 N.A. 2013 Four Seasons Marsa Alam 100% Marsa Alam 250 N.A. 2013 TMG Building Hotel 100% Cairo 198 N.A. 2014 Four Seasons Madinaty 100% Cairo 230 N.A. 2014 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.* (EGP mn Jun 2008) Banking on annual visitor traffic of 13mn into Egypt, TMG enjoys reasonable occupancy levels and healthy margins on its hotels in Cairo and Sharm elSheikh As per 1Q10 reports, average occupancy levels of 66% at Four Seasons Cairo and Sharm el-Sheikh are slowly recovering from pre 2009, where they had slipped to 58% down from 67% in 2008. During the same period, Average Room Rate (ARR) for the Four Seasons Nile Plaza and Sharm el-Sheikh slipped to US$338/day and US$460/day during 1Q10 vs. 2009 average of US$366/day and US$437/day. However, better QoQ occupancy levels and higher revenue from the F&B (food and beverages) business led to slightly improvement in Net Operating Margins, where they averaged 49%, up from 47% in 4Q09. Occupancy levels and margins at Four Seasons and San Stefano have been low at 43% and 12%, respectively, at end 1Q10. 41 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Feeling the pressure from the global financial crisis, Egypt's visitor volumes inched up by only 1%Y/Y in 2009,but visitor volumes into Egypt have remained robust with 5-year average (2005-08) growth of 15%. Hence with a slow yet gradual recovery in global dynamics, we expect tourism flows to improve further in 2010, where occupancy levels for TMG's two key hotels in Cairo and Sharm el-Sheikh have already started trending upwards closing at average 66% vs. 9MCY09 average of 54%. Figure 46: Net Margins for Four Seasons Cairo and Sharm el-Sheikh Figure 47: Occupancy levels at TMG’s operating hotels 60% 85% 55% 50% 75% 45% 55% 40% 45% 65% 35% 30% 35% 25% 25% 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 Four Seasons Nile Plaza 3Q09 4Q09 1H08 9M08 2008 1Q09 Four Seasons Nile Plaza Four Seasons San Stefano 1Q10 Four Sesons Sharm el Sheikh Source: Company reports 1H09 9M09 2009 1Q10 Four Sesons Sharm el Sheikh Source: Company reports The hotel construction and development costs are partially financed through upfront sale of high end luxury residential units attached to the hotel or resort. The difference is funded via debt or equity. This effectively allows TMG to enhance net cashflow at the start of the project and achieve target IRR of 18% on hotel complexes. The high end luxury units are limited in number and grab significantly higher selling prices and margin relative to average residential prices for development projects. Nile Plaza Hotel, which was completed in 2004, had 131 residential units apart from 365 room keys. At end 2009, TMG had 5 remaining units in Nile Plaza Hotel, where asking prices range between US$1.5-3mn with average margins in the range of 6875%. Within TMG’s hotel development pipeline, three out of its planned five hotel projects have a residential component apart from room keys. The hotels and resorts component within TMG's portfolio accounts for 20% of the company's combined SOTP, where we use a WACC of 15.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2%. The hotels and resorts portfolio represents 20% of the company's SOTP value Table 23: TMG - Hotel and resorts revenue recognition schedule EGP mn Nile Hotel Four Season Sharm Extension Marsa Alam Ph 1 Luxor Madinaty Existing hotel revenue Total 2010E 36 0 0 0 0 538 2011E 96 0 0 0 0 546 574 641 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates; 42 Recurring revenue from hotel operations 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 112 129 131 133 135 0 342 1034 35 52 0 3742 4598 92 135 0 0 73 99 108 0 0 0 900 346 561 614 663 713 765 673 4,827 6,498 1,972 1,541 2017E 137 61 158 127 59 776 2018E 139 62 160 129 64 788 1,318 1,342 Residential Units 114 750 100 964 Room Keys 191 96 250 201 240 684 1,662 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Revenue outlook – 3-yr revenue CAGR of 31% We estimate 3-year revenue CAGR of 31% with a sizable contribution coming from revenue recognition on planned handovers in Madinaty and Al Rehab With phased construction and handover spanning over the next 10 years, we expect 75% of TMG’s cumulative (2010E-2019E) revenue to come from Madinaty. This is followed by Al Rehab, which is expected to account for 12% of TMG's cumulative revenue during the same period. Starting 2010, TMG will recognize revenue on the first set of residential handovers in Madinaty, where we estimate a 3-year (20102012) revenue CAGR of 31%. The current sales backlog of EGP24bn should cover for revenues coming through over the next 3 years. However, sales projections beyond 2012 assume revenue recognition from any future sales primarily within Madinaty and Al Rehab's residential and commercial (mega developers) components. We estimate 66% of the cumulative revenue during 2010E-2019E period to come from property sales, followed by 26% contribution from land sales to mega developers and 7% contribution from recurring revenue generated from hotel and resort operations. Figure 48: TMG - Sales breakup by project 40,000 Figure 49: TMG - Sales breakup by project % 100% EGP Mn 30,000 80% 20,000 60% 10,000 40% - 20% 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Al Rehab 1& 2 Al Rabwa Madinaty Residential (Hotel & resorts) Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 0% 8% 7% 83% 79% 5% 11% 6% 4% 3% 56% 73% 84% 22% 12% 36% 5% 6% 6% 62% 62% 66% 32% 31% 27% 7% 49% 43% 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Land Residential Hospitality revenue Others Source: Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates EBITDA and net profit outlook 3-yr net profit CAGR is estimated at 35% with better margins expected on sales in Madinaty and Al Rehab Gross margin should improve moving forward with cheaper construction costs and stable pricing mix, where we estimate TMG to record average gross margin of 34% (2010E-12E); an improvement of 100bps vs. average for 2008-09 at 31%. Unlike some high-end residential focused developers, TMG raised its prices by 3% in 2009 and has already raised prices by 6%YTD for sales in the remaining inventory on launched phases within Madinaty and Al Rehab. The tax holiday which TMG has enjoyed on some of its earlier projects, does not apply to Madinaty and Al Rehab 2. As a result, with Madinaty handovers starting in 2010, we estimate net margin to reduce by 400bps to 24% vs. average 28% in 200809 with the company’s effective tax rate forecast to go up from average 10% in 2008-09 to average 20% for 2010E-12E period. Despite higher tax expense, we estimate TMG to report a 3-year Net Income CAGR of 35% for 2010-2012. 43 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Figure 50: TMG - Gross margins likely to improve moving forward 15000 Mn 40% 35% 10000 30% 25% 5000 20% 0 15% 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Property sales Services Revenue Hotel operations Gross Margin Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates Table 24: TMG - Profit and Loss statement EGP mn, year-end December 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Property sales Rental Income Service revenue Total consolidated revenues 4,763 584 74 5,421 4,074 540 208 4,822 6,316 574 219 7,109 8,153 641 230 9,024 10,000 673 241 10,914 Property sales cost Rental costs Services cost Total costs -3,143 -327 -24 -3,494 -2,898 -317 -121 -3,336 -4,293 -314 -127 -4,735 -5,780 -354 -134 -6,268 -6,193 -373 -140 -6,706 Gross profit Gross Margin 1,927 36% 1,486 31% 2,374 33% 2,757 31% 4,208 39% Admin & General Expenses Other income Others EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation -157 35 2 1,807 -92 -233 32 56 1,342 -101 -355 33 1 2,052 -103 -451 35 1 2,341 -115 -546 37 1 3,700 -129 EBIT 1,715 1,240 1,949 2,226 3,571 141 72 50 101 179 EBT Tax 1,856 -196 1,313 -113 1,999 -340 2,327 -459 3,750 -909 Net income ex. Minorities 1,442 1,106 1,566 1,775 2,748 0.71 0.00 0% 0.53 0.00 0% 0.77 0.00 0% 0.87 0.00 0% 1.35 0.20 15% Shares outstanding (MM) 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 2,030 Growth (%) Revenues EBITDA EPS DPS 153% 3% 8% n.a -11% 10% -25% n.a 47% 2% 46% n.a 27% 12% 13% n.a 21% 13% 55% n.a Net financing income/cost EPS (EGP) DPS (EGP) Payout ratio Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 44 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Cash flows and balance sheet Low gearing with liquidity likely to improve going forward Cashflow position is likely to improve moving forward, as planned handovers allow MTG to receive final down payments on sold units over the next 3 years TMG's balance sheet remains underleveraged with a net debt/equity of 25% mainly due to the company’s self-funded business model. This is unlikely to change over the medium term, given strong underlying fundamentals of the Egyptian real estate market, where 1) strong local population driven demand for housing and 2) high proportion of cash based transactions given tight banking regulations should continue to support TMG’s off-plan funding model, in our view. Following a slow 2009, the company has already achieved EGP1.2bn (up 172%Y/Y) in new off-plan sales during the first three months of 2010 with total sales backlog at EGP24bn. Moreover, customer default risks remain low given stringent repayment policies followed by the company, where customer contract cancellations that peaked in 1H09 remain less than 5% of the total sales backlog. As the pace of handover in Madinaty and Al Rehab picks up, we expect account receivables against the current backlog to materialize into cash enabling TMG to pursue further land acquisitions inline with its expansion strategy and accelerate pace of construction to take advantage of cheaper construction costs. Table 25: TMG - Cash flow statement EGP mn, year-end December Pre-tax profit Depreciation Others adjustments Working capital changes Cash flow from operations 2008 2017 103 (259) (3,402) (1,542) 2009 1313 101 (241) (1,474) (301) 2010E 1999 103 (93) (458) 1,551 2011E 2327 115 (93) 307 2,656 2012E 3750 129 (93) (33) 3,753 Purchase of property & equipment & Projects Under construction Other investing cash flows Cash flows from investing activities Free cash flows (4,285) -1731 (6,016) (5,568) (225) 24 (202) (285) (750) 0 (750) 895 (1,221) 0 (1,221) 1,528 (1,324) 0 (1,324) 2,523 Equity raised Debt raised/repaid Dividends paid Others adjustments Cash flow from financing activities 5,568 1,296 1,995 8,859 (56) (410) (466) (340) (340) (459) (459) (412) (909) (1,321) Foreign Exchange Impact Change in cash Beginning cash Closing cash 13 1,314 0 1,314 4 (964) 1,314 350 0 461 350 811 0 976 811 1,787 0 1,108 1,787 2,895 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 45 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Table 26: TMG - Balance sheet EGP mn, year-end December Cash Accounts and Notes Receivables Development work in progress Prepayments and Other debit balances Investment debtors Others Current Assets 2008 1,425 18,152 10,306 2,636 1,320 481 34,320 2009 399 17,061 11,718 3,073 1,305 497 34,053 2010E 860 17,203 12,628 3,073 1,305 497 35,566 2011E 1,836 16,695 13,809 3,073 1,305 497 37,215 2012E 2,944 18,009 18,689 3,073 1,305 497 44,517 Property, plant and equipment Projects under development Goodwill Others Total fixed assets Total assets 3,774 409 14,918 380 19,480 53,800 3,729 582 15,135 388 19,835 53,889 4,105 853 15,135 388 20,482 56,048 4,566 1,498 15,135 388 21,588 58,803 5,472 1,787 15,135 388 22,783 67,299 Trade and other payables Current portion of loans and facilities Customer advances Accrued expense and Other credit balance Others Current liabilities 506 481 21,726 1,475 146 24,333 604 752 20,447 1,702 117 23,621 924 752 20,672 1,702 165 24,215 1,805 752 20,771 1,702 165 25,195 1,091 752 27,645 1,702 165 31,356 Loans and facilities Long term liabilities Deferred Tax liabilities Long term liabilities 1,296 4,210 12 5,518 1,240 4,178 21 5,439 1,240 4,178 21 5,439 1,240 4,178 21 5,439 1,240 4,178 21 5,439 Minority Interest 1,994 1,685 1,685 1,685 1,685 Share capital Legal and general reserves Retained earnings Treasury stock Shareholders Equity 20,302 184 1,638 (170) 21,954 20,302 188 2,788 (134) 23,144 20,302 188 4,353 (134) 24,710 20,302 188 6,128 (134) 26,485 20,302 188 8,464 (134) 28,820 Total liabilities & shareholders' equity 53,800 53,889 56,048 58,803 67,299 10.81 624 5,506 6,131 11.40 866 5,418 6,284 12.17 915 5,418 6,333 13.05 915 5,418 6,333 14.20 915 5,418 6,333 11% 21% 12% 25% 11% 22% 11% 17% 9% 12% Ratios and other data Book value/ Sh ST debt LT debt Total debt Interest bearing debt / Capital (%) Net (debt) or cash to equity (%) Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 46 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 47 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Valuation Methodology and Risks Talaat Mostafa Group (Overweight; Price Target £E10.70) Valuation Methodology Our end Dec 2010 target price of EGP10.7 is based on sum-of-the-parts valuation analysis and includes discounted cash flows from TMG's ongoing mixed-used residential development and hotel projects. TMG's largest project, Madinaty, accounts for 62% of its combined SOTP, followed by Al Rehab (1 & 2) accounting for c. 12% of the company’s SOTP value. We exclude TMG’s landbank from our SOTP calculation, as we forecast cash flows from all of TMG projects including Madinaty and Al Rehab for their entire construction period. We also exclude TMG’s land plot in Jeddah (1.4mn sq m – 50% of the total of 2.8mn sq m), where construction plans have not yet been finalized. We do not apply a discount to our SOTP, as we find Egyptian property market dynamics rather robust with the residential demand largely driven by domestic population rather than expats. However, we use a high WACC of 14.8% to reflect low affordability levels and the high interest & inflation rate environment in the country. Risks to Our View The downside risks to our OW rating could come from weaker than forecast revenue from planned handovers in 2010-2012, weaker than forecast margins on residential units, lower than forecast demand for housing, and a poor response from the off-plan sales launch in Saudi Arabia. 48 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Talaat Mostafa Group: Summary of Financials Profit and Loss statement £E in millions, year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E Cash flow statement £E in millions, year-end Dec Sales % change Y/Y Gross Profit % change Y/Y EBITDA % change Y/Y EBIT % change Y/Y Net Interest Earning before tax % change Y/Y 5,421 1,927 1,807 1,715 141 1,856 - 4,822 -11% 1,486 -23% 1,342 -26% 1,240 -28% 72 1,313 -29% 7,109 47% 2,374 60% 2,052 53% 1,949 57% 50 1,999 52% After Tax Income ex Minorities % change Y/Y 1,442 - 1,106 -23% 1,566 42% Shares Outstanding 2,030 2,030 2,030 EPS (reported) % change Y/Y 0.71 0.53 0.77 - (25.4%) 45.5% 9,024 10,914 EBIT 27% 21% Depreciation & amortisation 2,757 4,208 Change in working capital 16% 53% Other 2,341 3,700 Cash flow from operations 14% 58% 2,226 3,571 Purchase of property plant and equipment 14% 60% Gain from sale of assets 101 179 Other 2,327 3,750 Cash flow from investments 16% 61% Equity raised 1,775 2,748 Debt raised/(repaid) 13% 55% Others Cashflow from Financing 2,030 2,030 Change in Cash 0.87 1.35 Beginning cash 13.4% 54.8% Ending cash FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E 2,017 103 (3,402) (259) (1,542) 1,313 101 (1,474) (241) (301) (4,285) 1 (1,732) (6,016) 1,999 103 (458) (93) 1,551 FY12E 2,327 115 307 (93) 2,656 3,750 129 (33) (93) 3,753 (225) 2 22 (202) (750) (1,221) 0 0 (750) (1,221) (1,324) 0 (1,324) 5,568 1,296 1,995 8,859 (56) (410) (466) 0 (340) (340) 0 (459) (459) 0 (1,321) (1,321) 1,314 1,314 (964) 1,314 350 461 350 811 976 811 1,787 1,108 1,787 2,895 Balance sheet £E in millions, year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E Ratio Analysis FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E Cash and cash equivalents Accounts receivable Development work udner progress Other Current assets Property plant and equipment Projects under development Others Total assets ST loans Payables Others Total current liabilities Long term debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Minorities Shareholders' equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 1,425 18,152 10,306 4,437 34,320 3,774 409 15,298 53,800 624 506 2,101 24,333 5,506 12 29,852 1,994 21,955 53,800 399 17,061 11,718 4,875 34,053 3,729 582 15,524 53,889 866 604 2,571 23,621 5,418 21 29,060 1,685 23,144 53,889 35.5% 33% 31.6% 26.6% 2.9% 30.8% 33.4% 30.5% 28% 29% 26% 25.7% 27.4% 24.7% 22.9% 22.0% 19.7% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 38.6% 34% 32.7% 25.2% 5.0% -11% 47% 27% -26% 53% 14% - (25.4%) 45.5% 13.4% 21% 58% 54.8% 860 17,203 12,628 4,875 35,566 4,105 853 15,524 56,048 915 924 2,620 24,215 5,418 21 29,654 1,685 24,710 56,048 1,836 16,695 13,809 4,875 37,215 4,566 1,498 15,524 58,803 915 1,805 2,620 25,195 5,418 21 30,634 1,685 26,485 58,803 2,944 18,009 18,689 4,875 44,517 5,472 1,787 15,524 67,299 915 1,091 2,620 31,356 5,418 21 36,794 1,685 28,820 67,299 Gross Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT margin Net profit margin SG&A/Sales Sales growth EBITDA growth Adjusted EPS growth Net debt to Total Capital Net debt to Equity Sales/assets Assets/equity ROE ROCE 11.4% 19.6% 10.1 2.5 6.6% 5.8% 11.7% 11.3% 10.8% 23.7% 20.7% 16.0% 8.9 2.3 4.8% 4.1% 12.7 2.3 6.3% 6.1% 9.4% 11.1% 15.3 2.2 6.7% 6.6% 16.2 2.3 9.5% 9.9% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 49 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures • Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: JPMSL and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in Talaat Mostafa Group. Talaat Mostafa Group (TMGH.CA) Price Chart 21 Price(£E) 14 7 0 Nov 07 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight. Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenove’s UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analyst’s team’s coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe. Coverage Universe: Muneeza Hasan: Aldar Properties (ALDR.AD), Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), RAK Properties (RPRO.AD), Sorouh Real Estate (SOR.AD), Union Properties (UPRO.DU) 50 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of March 31, 2010 JPM Global Equity Research Coverage IB clients* JPMSI Equity Research Coverage IB clients* Overweight (buy) 45% 48% 42% 70% Neutral (hold) 42% 46% 49% 58% Underweight (sell) 13% 32% 10% 48% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http://www.morganmarkets.com , or you can contact the analyst named on the front of this note or your J.P. Morgan representative. Analysts’ Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking. Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMSI, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMSI, and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Other Disclosures J.P. Morgan is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. (JPMSI) and its non-US affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a brand name for equity research produced by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.; J.P. Morgan Equities Limited; JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch; and J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC. Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporation’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCC’s website at http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf. Legal Entities Disclosures U.S.: JPMSI is a member of NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc. is a member of the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. U.K.: J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. (JPMSL) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is a Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a member of the Philippine Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MICA (P) 020/01/2010 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia: J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia Ltd. is authorised by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (CMA) to carry out dealing as an agent, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to securities business under licence number 35-07079 and its registered address is at 8th Floor, Al-Faisaliyah Tower, King Fahad Road, P.O. Box 51907, Riyadh 11553, Kingdom of Saudi 51 Muneeza Hasan (971) 4428-1766 [email protected] MENA Equity Research 07 June 2010 Arabia. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre - Building 3, Level 7, PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. Country and Region Specific Disclosures U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMSL. Investment research issued by JPMSL has been prepared in accordance with JPMSL's policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research. Many European regulators require that a firm to establish, implement and maintain such a policy. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to “wholesale clients” only. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to “retail clients.” The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the terms “wholesale client” and “retail client” have the meanings given to them in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Germany: This material is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd., Frankfurt Branch and J.P.Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch which are regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months’ prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider for derivative warrants issued by J.P. Morgan Structured Products B.V. and listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. An updated list can be found on HKEx website: http://www.hkex.com.hk/prod/dw/Lp.htm. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. 82 Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Korea: This report may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch. Singapore: JPMSS and/or its affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding is disclosed in the Important Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only, not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only, not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Dubai: This report has been issued to persons regarded as professional clients as defined under the DFSA rules. General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to JPMSI and/or its affiliates and the analyst’s involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. JPMSI distributes in the U.S. research published by non-U.S. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. “Other Disclosures” last revised March 1, 2010. Copyright 2010 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. 52