Para onde caminha o setor de brinquedos, as novas

Para onde caminha o
setor de brinquedos,
as novas tendências e
o futuro
‚When
it comes to the future, there are three kinds of
people: those who let it happen, those who make it
happen, and those who wonder what happened.‛
John M. Richardson, Jr.
‚As
for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to
enable it.‛
Antoine de Saint-Exupery
WHERE IS TOY
MANUFACTURING
GOING?
CHINA
TURKEY
MEXICO
VIET NAM
EASTERN EUROPE
INDIA
DECLINING BIRTH RATES
JAPAN
‚Japan is the first developed
country to register more annual
deaths than births and the elderly
will outnumber children two to
one within five years. . .‛
China Daily, July 3, 2008
EUROPE
‚For the first time on record,
birthrates in southern and Eastern
Europe had dropped below 1.3. . . At
that rate, a country’s population
would be cut in half in 45 years
[emphasis mine]. . Demographers
have invented an ominous new term
for the phenomenon: ‘Lowest-low
fertility.’‛
TOP GDP COUNTRIES BIRTH RATES
INDIA
BRAZIL
REPLACEMENT RATE
UNITED STATES
FRANCE
UNITED KINGDOM
RUSSIA
CHINA
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
2.62
2.18
2.10
2.06
1.96
1.91
1.42
1.54
1.41
1.39
1.21
WORLD’S BIGGEST
COUNTRIES BY GDP
United States
China
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
Brazil
United Kingdom
France
Italy
WORLD’S BIGGEST
COUNTRIES BY POPULATION
China
India
United States
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Nigeria
Russia
Bangladesh
Japan
1.3 Billion
1.2 Billion
313 Million
237 Million
190 Million
179 Million
162 Million
143 Million
142 Million
128 Million
COUNTRIES WITH
POPULATION AND GDP
Brazil
China
United States
Russia
WHAT ABOUT GREEN?
AMAZON AND FRUSTRATION
FREE PACKAGING
VIDEO GAMES IN TROUBLE AND
WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE TOY
INDUSTRY
‚…total U.S. game industry sales
were $743.1 million in May,
falling to their lowest point
since October 2006.”
‚Game Console Sales Plummeted in June‛
cnet, July 11, 2011
“Video game sales were off 21
percent in December to $3.99
billion from $5.07 billion the
previous year.‚
PC Magazine, January 13, 2012
THE END OF
MANUFACTURING?
$899.00 to $1299.00 US
MakerBot Thing-O-Matic
www.makerbot.com
STAR TREK TRANSPORTER
$1799.00 US
MakerBot Replicator
www.makerbot.com
WHERE DO TOYS AND NEW
TECHNOLOGY START AND STOP?
MOORE’S ECHO
WHATEVER IS CUTTING
EDGE TECHNOLOGY TODAY
WILL BE A TOY IN
7 YEARS
DRONE UNMANNED
AIRCRAFT $4.5 - $10 MILLION
PARROT AR TOY
DRONE $299
iPAD 3 $499
LEAPFROG LEAPPAD $99
GOOGLE’S ‚PROJECT GLASS‛
AUGMENTED REALITY GLASSES
LG EBOOKS WITH FLEXIBLE
DISPLAYS
QBO COMMUNICATIONS ROBOT
UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI SELF
HEALING PLASTIC (IT BLEEDS)
Gottlieb’s Rebound
‚A toy with a purpose is no
longer a toy when it does
the job cheaper than
available technology.‛
Spykee Spy Robot
Meccano / Erector $599
Rovio Wowee $229
IS IT THE END OF BIG BOX
RETAILING?
ARE WAL-MART, CARREFOUR
& OTHER BIG RETAILERS
THE DINOSAURS OF THE
21ST CENTURY?
Online retail sales will grow at
a 10% average annual growth
rate from 2010 to 2015 in both
the United States and
Europe…
Forester Research
THE END OF DRIVING &
WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE
TOY INDUSTRY & RETAILERS
In a survey of 3,000 consumers born
from 1981 to 2000 — a generation
marketers call “Millennials”—
…Not one car brand ranked in the
top 10, lagging far behind companies
like Google and Nike.
‚As Young Lose Interest in Cars, G.M. Turns to MTV for Help‛
Amy Coizick, New York Times, March 22, 2012
“Forty-six percent of drivers aged
18 to 24 said they would choose
Internet access over owning a
car…”
‚As Young Lose Interest in Cars, G.M. Turns to MTV for Help‛
Amy Coizick, New York Times, March 22, 2012
Driving Licenses
Percentage of 16 year olds with drivers licenses
1978
50%
2008
31%
Percentage of 17 year olds with drivers licenses
1978
2008
75%
49%
Young Adult Share of Driving Miles
(ages 21 to 30)
1995
20.8%
2001
18.3%
2009
13.7%
Toy Cars
A $1.8 Billion U.S. Business
Matttel Hot Wheels
Mattel Matchbox
Funrise Tonka
Fisher-Price Powerwheels
Little Tykes Cozy Cars
THE MILLENNIAL
GENERATION
‚Arguably, this is the most
consequential generation of young
adults, perhaps since the baby
boomers, who famously made a lot
of noise in the '60s and were part
of a counterculture movement."
Paul Taylor
Executive Vice President
Pew Research Center
WHO ARE THE MILLENNIALLS?
Born between 1980 and the late 1990’s
Technology savvy / Wired
Racially diverse
Culturally liberal
Frugal / Value conscious
Peer oriented
EUROPE(S)
CHINA’S FUTURE:
HONG KONG OR SHANGHAI
UNITED STATES
BRAZIL’S FUTURE ?
ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE
Keep on top of cutting edge consumer product
technology
Keep up with new materials and processes
Attend international shows and visit foreign countries
Read current census data and keep up on demographics
Read the domestic and foreign press
Ask lots of questions
THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT THE
FUTURE IS TO INVENT IT.
Alan Curtis Kay
[email protected]
WWW.GLOBALTOYEXPERTS.COM
WWW.GLOBALTOYNEWS.COM