Outlet Retail Market Study May 2012

Transcription

May 9, 2012
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
FROM:
Ms. Mary C. Bujold
Maxfield Research Inc.
RE:
Assessment of Potential Demand for Additional Soft Goods Retail at the Cedar
Grove Redevelopment in Eagan, Minnesota
Introduction
This memorandum discusses the potential demand for the additional of additional retail space
in the form of an “outlet mall” that would be developed in the Cedar Grove area of Eagan,
Minnesota. Specifically, the analysis addresses how the proposed outlet mall would
complement the existing retail base in Eagan and the development of additional retail space
planned for the intersection of Yankee Doodle Road and Pilot Knob Road.
Brief Background of the Outlet Mall
Manufacturers’ retail outlets have come a long way in size, geographic reach, and popularity
since men’s-clothing-maker Anderson-Little opened the first non-factory-adjacent outlet stores
in 1936. Until the 1970s, such outlets, inevitably single stores located far from primary retail
centers, served mainly to dispose of excess or damaged merchandise. But since then, they
have grown to include multiple manufacturer-branded and non-branded stores at the same
site, great breadth of designer label offerings, and an increasing proportion of in-season
alongside irregular and overstocked items.
And these trends show in outlet stores’ performance: manufacturers’ outlets in the United
States generated $15 billion annual revenue by 2003, which represented 250% of 1990 sales.
Importantly, outlet malls’ sales per square foot often outstrip those of conventional malls;
shoppers spend up to 79% more per visit at outlets than regional malls and, though they are
still typically located outside of city retail centers, outlet malls are moving closer to central
commercial district.
1221 Nicollet Mall Suite 218, Minneapolis, MN 55403
(612) 338-0012 fax (612) 904-7979
www.maxfieldresearch.com
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 2
These trends raise an important question: How viable a channel strategy is distribution through
outlet stores in addition to primary retailers? With this exact query in mind, Kellogg School of
Management marketing professor Anne Coughlan and co-author David Soberman presented
several rationales for retail outlets, along with an assessment of their current state and future
trends, in a 2005 article in the International Journal of Research in Marketing.
A Case for Retail Outlets
Coughlan and Soberman present several reasons that outlet stores are more than just
“dumping grounds” for unforeseen overstocks, end-of-season leftovers, and damaged
products. They cite research showing that the last category comprises only about 15% of all
outlet merchandise. Rather, the authors state that a stronger rationale for outlets is that they
actually “expand market coverage by serving a previously unserved set of consumers;” these
buyers are typically too price-sensitive to frequent primary retail stores. As evidence for this
reasoning, Coughlan and Soberman cite studies demonstrating that outlet malls attract
segments that previously bought primarily unbranded items.
Outlet stores are, in fact, a sound distribution channel for fashion and other merchandise.
While Coughlan and Soberman acknowledge that manufacturers may use outlet malls in part to
“challenge” their primary retailers’ power or keep them in line by offering the same
merchandise simultaneously through retailers and outlets, they also propose what is perhaps
the strongest rationale for outlets: “manufacturers can use outlet retailing to implement simple
market segmentation through dual distribution.” In other words, while highly service-sensitive
customers will continue to shop at primary retailers, those with less of a service focus will look
easily past the no-frills environments of the outlets for their lower prices.
Retail and the Current Recession
In an uncertain economy, outlet malls are thriving by targeting price-sensitive fashion shoppers.
Before the recession, many Americans satiated their desires for designer labels by tapping their
credit cards and home equity lines. In these frugal times, Americans still want their polo shirts
and designer denim. They are just unwilling, or unable, to pay much for them.
"Americans are highly focused on price," said Lee Peterson, executive vice president of creative
services at WD Partners, a retail design firm in Dublin, Ohio. "It is the No. 1 motivation when
shopping. It's an American obsession."
Instead of planning a once-a-year excursion, consumers are increasingly making outlet malls a
part of their regular shopping routine. This shift in shopping behavior comes as traditional
regional shopping malls are struggling. And it is prompting retailers and developers to take a
fresh look at the outlet as a vehicle for growth.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 3
In the Chicago region alone, developers are working on separate transactions to develop three
outlet malls, one each in Rosemont, New Lenox and Country Club Hills, totaling more than 1.5
million square feet. In addition, Simon Property Group Inc., owner of Chicago Premium Outlets,
announced last week that it plans to add a 130,000-square-foot wing to the 440,000-squarefoot Aurora Center, increasing its size by one-third to 570,000 square feet. The Aurora outlet is
one of four Simon outlet malls nationwide slated to expand in 2012.
The prospect of so much outlet mall development at one time is bound to lead to "site fights,"
according to Linda Humphers, who tracks the outlet mall industry for the International Council
of Shopping Centers as editor of Value Retail News. By her count, there are about 300 brands
operating outlet stores in the U.S. That means there is bound to be some overlap, as mall
developers compete for tenants.
"Everybody's planning outlet malls," said Humphers. "That doesn't mean everyone's going to
build them. Retailers are not going to open that many stores."
However, the economics of outlet malls are enticing.
For retailers, operating an outlet store requires less investment than a traditional indoor
shopping mall. Outlet malls are typically on one level and outdoors, so lease rates are less
expensive that at traditional indoor shopping malls. The common area assessments are also
lower compared with traditional malls, since there are no elevators or escalators, no heat or air
conditioning for large common area spaces and generally fewer frills in the mall. The stores
themselves are also less highly designed.
For developers, the revenue potential is hard to ignore. A healthy regional mall filled with fullprice stores typically generates annual sales of $400 to $500 a square foot. But Chicago
Premium Outlets in Aurora generates $700 a square foot, a figure that has been steadily
climbing since the mall opened in 2004, according to Simon, the nation's largest shopping mall
owner.
Simon's top-performing outlet mall, Orlando Premium Outlets in Florida, generates $1,300 a
square foot, on par with the best-performing, full-priced luxury malls in the nation. A Simon
premium outlet typically attracts 5 million to 10 million shoppers per year.
In another sign of the growing appeal of the outlet mall, Bloomingdale's and Lord & Taylor are
jumping into the outlet market for the first time, after watching sales soar at Nordstrom Rack,
Saks' Off Fifth and Neiman Marcus' Last Call outlets. Niche brands are opening outlets as well,
most recently Not Your Daughter's Jeans, Vince Camuto shoes and Under Armour athletic wear.
Given that about ten years ago department stores fought fiercely to keep branded outlet stores
on the outskirts of major metropolitan areas, far away from the full-price collections that filled
their traditional mall stores, the increase in manufacturers’ strategy of “dual distribution” can
actually help both stores in traditional malls and those at outlet malls.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 4
"We've all come out of the recession with this whole new awakening that maybe we've got to
do things a little differently," said Michele Rothstein, senior vice president of marketing at
Simon's Premium Outlets division in Roseland, N.J. "The brands recognize now more than ever
that an outlet shop may be their first connection with the consumer."
Alison Witkin, 45, visits Lighthouse Place, another Simon-owned outlet mall, in Michigan City,
IN., whenever her family comes for a visit or she wants to pick up some end-of-the-season
deals. The Valparaiso resident does most of her shopping at J.C. Penney and Kohl's but on
occasion gets an itch to shop among higher-end brands at the outlet mall.
"Every now and then I get the taste for something a little more up-market," said Witkin. "I'm
not knocking J.C. Penney or Kohl's, because I've picked up some great things there, but it's nice
to go to the smaller stores (at the outlet). I like to get the feel of a little more glamour."
Even though outlet malls have been growing rapidly over the past ten years, they still represent
a small part of the U.S. shopping landscape. There are approximately 325 outlet malls in the
U.S., compared with 1,500 traditional shopping malls nationwide, according to the International
Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). Outlet malls comprise a small 1% of the total square
footage of shopping centers nationwide, the trade group says.
Meanwhile, some of the malls calling themselves outlets in reality are a hybrid of discount
stores, regular-price stores and outlets. Earlier this year, Gurnee Mills, owned by Simon
properties and located in the far northern suburbs, announced an unusual deal to bring
department store Macy's as anchor of a new full-price wing.
The full-price Macy's store, which is slated to open in 2013, would have been unthinkable when
Gurnee Mills debuted in 1991. But today, Macy's, like many retailers, relies more heavily on inhouse and exclusive brands than the big-name vendors that once populated its shelves.
At the same time, popular brand names such as Coach and Banana Republic and many others
create products specifically for the outlet stores that differ from the merchandise in their fullprice locations, eliminating some of the conflict inherent in locating outlets close to full-price
malls.
As for the Chicago area's trio of planned outlet malls, all three projects were on the drawing
board before the recession put a halt to development. If they are resurrected, they would mark
the first major new shopping centers in the region since the Arboretum of South Barrington and
Block 37 in the Loop. (Both of those malls, while still operating, ended up in foreclosure.)
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 5
The Spring Creek Outlets of Chicago is planned to go into a farm field in New Lenox near the
interchange of Interstate 355 and U.S. Highway 6. The 550,000-square-foot, $225 million outlet
center is scheduled to begin construction in the second quarter of 2012 and open in 2013. The
outlet is expected to anchor a million-square-foot mixed development across from a new
hospital.
Another, 400,000-square-foot outlet mall is expected to open about 20 miles away from New
Lenox in Country Club Hills at Interstates 80 and 57. The construction of Chicago Outlets at
Country Club Hills is targeted to start next spring and open in 2013.
The project has five signed leases so far: Esprit, Timberland, Levi's, Le Creuset and Perfumania,
according to Steve Craig, president and CEO of Newport Beach, Calif.-based Craig Realty Group,
who along with Chicago-based Capri Capital Partners LLC of Chicago is developing the project.
A third area project is in the works for Rosemont — a two-level, 550,000-square-foot outlet
mall called the Fashion Outlets of Chicago, across from the Muvico cinema complex. The
developers are Coral Gables, Fla.-based outlet mall developer AWE Talisman LLC and Chicagobased Silver Rock Development Group LLC.
The plans come as traditional shopping mall development slows. Since 2009, there have been
only four traditional regional malls built in the U.S., according to the ICSC.
The average vacancy rate at U.S. regional malls in the second quarter reached 9.3 percent, a 10year high, according to Reis Inc., as the specialty chains that once populated their corridors —
from Ann Taylor to the Gap — are closing stores and seeking smaller footprints.
"People are flocking to these outlets," said Jeff Middlebrook, principal with Center Creek, one
of the developers behind the Spring Creek Outlets. "They still want to wear the Polo guy or
alligator on their shirt, but they don't feel special paying $80 at Macy's. But, they feel special
paying $25 at the outlet mall. Brand consciousness still exists, but now, it is all about pricing."
Niche Marketing and Dual Distribution
Outlet malls have changed since they first started popping up in out-of-the-way sites around
the country. While major retailers used to send over seconds or outdated fashions, many now
manufacture items specifically for their outlets through separate “outlet divisions.”
It is believed that with different product lines being placed into outlet malls that retailers are no
longer concerned about having an outlet store compete directly with their stores in traditional
malls and shopping areas.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 6
Tanger Outlets describes the typical outlet shopper as distinctive. The majority of outlet
shoppers are "affluent, well-educated working women, 25-54, who are shopping for their
favorite brands," a company release said.
Discounts on brand names can run from 30% to 70%, with merchandise coming directly from
the manufacturer.
Smaller community centers and lifestyle centers that are located near outlet malls may feel
some impacts, but according to most developers, the impact appears to be minimal. The outlet
mall tends to carry primarily branded merchandise. Outlet malls tend not to have many
restaurants, if any, unlike most lifestyle centers. And, the impact on more traditional malls is
also expected to be minimal because of the targeted customer base. According to the industry,
customers are either a traditional shopper or an outlet shopper.
Despite the general viewpoint that outlet malls do not impact traditional malls to any
significant degree, there is still some uncertainty out there among retailers because locating in
such close proximity to retail malls is a relatively new approach.
Profitability of Outlet Centers
Simon Property Group operates regional malls and 57 outlet centers across the country,
including Williamsburg Premium Outlets, which has stores such as children clothing retailer The
Children's Place and teen apparel chain Aéropostale.
The company said that its total sales per square foot were up 9.4 percent to $513 for the three
months ended June 30, 2011 over the same period last year. It is planning major expansions at
four of its outlet centers in Seattle, Orlando, Chicago and Southern California, which will add
over 450,000 square feet of space.
Outlet mall developers see shoppers as re-emerging from the recession and returning to
buying, but it is considered to be a new normal — one that focuses more on value.
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc., which owns or operates 37 outlet shopping centers in the
U.S., reported on August 2, 2011 that its tenants' sales at stores open at least a year — a key
indicator of a retailer's health — were up 6.8 percent over the previous quarter to $361 per
square foot. Tanger is hearing from their retailers that the retailers’ outlet stores are either the
most profitable or one of the most profitable business units in their corporation.
Now many apparel brands are relying on outlet divisions for growth.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 7
At Ann Taylor, revenue from its traditional stores open at least a year was up just 0.6 percent,
while Ann Taylor Factory stores had a 6.5 percent increase.
American Eagle recently indicated that 90% of the company's new locations will be outlet
stores. Gap recently said it was increasing the number of new stores it plans to open in 2012
from 65 to 75, driven primarily by additional outlet store openings in North America.
At Children's Place, the chain is rolling out its first clothing assortment made specifically for its
outlet stores for back-to-school this year.
When its manufacturing transition is complete, Children's Place expects up to 75% of the
merchandise in its outlet stores will be made-for-outlet — a ratio that matches what many
other companies are already doing.
Draw Area for the Proposed Outlet Mall
The draw areas of outlet malls can vary dramatically depending on where they are located.
Many outlet malls draw from as far as 80 miles away. The proposed outlet mall is expected to
draw primarily from the south, west and north in addition to capturing visitor traffic from the
Mall of America. The closer the distance to Albertville Outlets, considered to its primary
competitor, there will be greater overlap and if customers are in closer proximity to the
Albertville Outlets, they are more likely to patronize the center closest to them. Developing
more outlet malls and locating them closer to urban areas has reduced the amount of travel
time that customers can expect to travel to reach an outlet center.
The draw area for the proposed outlet mall is expected to be similar to that of the proposed
CSM center. It is this area from which both centers can be expected to draw the majority of
their customer base. However, based on the format of the outlet mall, it is our opinion that the
outlet mall can be expected to draw from a somewhat broader area as its close proximity to the
Mall of America and its similar focus toward fashion goods will give the outlet mall access to the
significant tourist base that shops at the MOA.
The map on the following page illustrates drive times from the Central Commons property,
located within one mile of the proposed site for the Outlet Mall. As shown on the map, the Site
can be reached within a 30-minute drive from much of the Metro Area. This 30-minute drive
time reaches as far as Lino Lakes to the north, Hudson to the east, Wayzata to the west, and
northern Rice County to the south. Although communities furthest to the north may choose to
shop at the Albertville Outlets, in closest proximity to their place of residence, households in
other areas of the Metro and within this 30-minute drive time are likely to consider shopping at
the proposed Paragon Outlet center.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 8
Central Commons Drive Time
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 9
Central Commons Market Area
Seven-County Metro Area
(Tertiary Market Area)
SITE
PMA
Dakota County
(Secondary Market Area)
The above map shows the Primary Market Area (PMA), the Secondary Market Area (SMA) and
the Tertiary Market Area (TMA) for the Central Commons Center. The proposed Paragon Outlet
Mall is expected to draw from an area most similar to the Tertiary Market Area that is shown.
As mentioned previously, the closer the market area extends toward the Albertville Outlet Mall,
the more likely it will be that prospective customers would shop there rather than drive the
additional time to Paragon. However, Paragon expects to also draw customers from further
south partially into Rice County and Goodhue County because of its location at Cedar Avenue
and Highway 77.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 10
Retail Market Analysis
Introduction
This section presents and analyzes information relating to the condition of the retail market and
the potential for future retail development in the Market Area. The potential for new retail
development in Eagan is influenced by overall market conditions in the Trade Area, also
referred to as the Market Area. The Market Area for the proposed Paragon Outlet Mall is
essentially considered to be the Tertiary Market Area for the Central Commons development.
As such, the potential market area is potentially much broader for the Outlet Mall, consistent
with its proposed “fashion” format.
The tables in this section are referenced from a recent report completed by Maxfield Research
for the City of Eagan on the proposed Central Commons development. Tables 10 through 16
and Tables 18 and 19 are shown in this document and with additional assessment as it relates
to the potential development of the proposed Paragon Outlet Mall. Table 20 is a calculation of
demand potential focusing on the Tertiary Market Area and the proposed expenditures for
clothing and accessories goods.
Information analyzed in this section includes consumer expenditures by Eagan area and
surrounding immediate area residents, regional retail development trends, the commercial
supply in the general Eagan Area, retail businesses by type, and an inventory of competitive
retail shopping centers. Based on an analysis of this information, calculations of the retail
potential for the Paragon Outlet Mall in conjunction with the Central Commons development
are presented.
Consumer Expenditure Patterns
Table 10, excerpted from the Central Commons analysis shows consumer expenditures on retail
goods and services in Eagan and the immediate surrounding area in 2010, according to data
obtained from ESRI based on Consumer Expenditure Surveys from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The table shows the average expenditures per household and the amount spent in
Eagan and the immediate surrounding area by product or service. In addition, a Spending
Potential Index (SPI) is illustrated for comparison purposes. The SPI is based on households and
represents the amount spent for a product or service relative to the national average of 100.
An SPI of 115 shows that the average annual expenditure by local consumers is 15% above the
national average. The average expenditure reflects the average amount spent per household,
while the total expenditure reflects the aggregate amount spent by all households in the area.
Consumer spending is influenced by market conditions and trends. In times of economic
troubles, market conditions drive spending patterns, whereas in times of a booming economy
consumer trends feature opportunity and convenience. Two-thirds of the national economy is
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 11
TABLE 10
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES BY SELECTED PRODUCT TYPE
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2010
MA Annual Expenditures
Total
Average
($000's)
Per HH
Category
Goods & Services
177,406
344,951
9,843
45,339
7,954
41,575
55,460
11,033
38,661
20,513
3,084
119,410
Apparel & Services
Entertainment and Recreation
Nonprescription Drugs
Prescription Drugs
Eye Glasses & Contact Lenses
Personal Care Products
Day Care
School Books & Supplies
Smoking Products
Computer Hardware
Computer Software
Pets
MSA Expenditures
Average
Per HH
Index
2,544
4,946
141
650
114
596
795
158
554
294
44
781
2,148
4,146
121
576
97
502
631
138
501
247
37
655
Food at Home
Food Away from Home
Alcoholic Beverages
Misc. Beverages at Home
Food
448,561
337,345
60,905
43,821
6,431
4,837
873
628
5,531
4,093
747
540
Home Mortgage Payment/Rent
Maintenance & Remodeling Services
Maintenance & Remodeling Materials
Utilities
Home
1,076,528
222,391
38,589
450,747
15,435
3,188
553
6,463
12,420
2,598
453
5,552
Financial & Insurance
170,400
509,095
48,043
119,410
43,198
184,370
Index
Index
Index
169
778
98
372
97
41
12
37
517
76
865
2,089
6,042
572
1,454
519
2,316
124
127
131
123
165
161
149
143
133
131
122
123
Index
151
157
154
147
133
143
161
104
149
149
145
Index
2,443
7,299
689
1,712
619
2,643
90
129
118
116
126
126
136
129
117
129
130
152
144
150
153
144
Index
CONTINUED
Index
106
153
137
130
148
149
172
148
130
154
155
182
Index
Household Furnishings, Equipment, & Operations
Household Textiles
14,051
201
Furniture
65,719
942
Floor Coverings
8,068
116
Major Appliances
31,082
446
Small Appliances
7,997
115
Housewares
3,280
47
Luggage
1,039
15
Telephone & Accessories
3,102
44
Lawn & Garden
43,396
622
Moving/Storage/Freight Express
6,309
90
Housekeeping Supplies
70,875
1,016
Investments
Vehicle Loans
Owners & Renters Insurance
Vehicle Insurance
Life/Other Insurance
Health Insurance
Spending Potential Index to USA
Market
MSP/St. Paul
Area
MSA
127
129
131
123
112
124
132
87
124
125
123
Index
140
148
149
147
148
137
120
123
123
125
124
120
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 12
TABLE 10
(CONTINUED)
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES BY SELECTED PRODUCT TYPE
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2010
Category
Cars and Trucks (Net Outlay)
Gasoline and Motor Oil
Vehicle Maintenance/Repair
Airline Fares
Lodging
Vehicle Rental
Food & Drink
Summary
Goods & Services
Food
Home
Household
Financial and Insurance
Transportation
Travel
Total
Annual Expenditures
Total
Average
($000's)
Per HH
Metro Area
Average
Per HH
Spending Potential Index to USA
Market
MSP/St. Paul
Area
MSA
Transportation
460,154
287,724
97,336
6,597
4,125
1,396
5,478
3,497
1,180
Index
Travel
51,999
48,035
4,343
46,931
746
689
62
673
616
569
51
560
875,230
890,632
1,788,255
254,920
1,074,516
845,215
151,309
5,880,077
10,836
12,769
25,639
3,655
15,406
12,118
2,169
82,593
9,144
10,911
21,024
3,062
12,992
10,155
1,795
69,082
Index
150
144
148
Index
125
122
125
Index
162
158
169
155
134
131
137
129
Note: The Spending Potential Index is based on households and represents the amount spent for a product or service relative to the
national average of 100.
Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research Inc.
driven by consumer spending. During the current recession, households have decreased
spending, increased savings, and reduced credit card debt as many households have been faced
with job losses. In essence, when the housing market began its decline in late 2006 into 2007,
consumer spending and consumer confidence followed.
The following are key points from Table 10.

Overall, residents from the Central Commons Trade Area were estimated to have spent
approximately $2.4 billion on retail goods and services in 2010, excluding housing,
finance/insurance, and travel expenditures as well as vehicle purchases

Average annual expenditures (excluding the categories mentioned above) are estimated to
be $32,781 per household in the Central Commons Trade Area. This compares to a Metro
average of $27,793 per household in 2010.

In virtually every product and service category, expenditures by Central Commons Trade
Area households are substantially higher than the national average and somewhat higher
than the Twin Cities Metro Area.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 13

Housing expenses account for approximately one-third of total consumer expenditures in
the Central Commons Trade Area with residents spending between 15% and 25% more than
the Metro average.

Average annual expenditures per household in the Central Commons Trade Area are
estimated to be approximately 20% higher than the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Average
annual expenditures in the Metro Area are estimated to be $69,082, compared to $82,593
per household in the Central Commons Trade Area.

The roughly 69,748 households in the Central Commons Trade Area spent a total of $5.9
billion on retail expenditures in 2010. With the number of households projected to grow to
72,491 in 2015, they would generate an additional $21 million in expenditures annually, not
factoring in inflation.

What is most notable regarding consumer expenditures in relation to the proposed Paragon
Outlet Mall is the amount of expenditures on fashion and soft goods products. As shown on
the Table, households spent an average of $2,544 per household annually on apparel and
services as of 2010. Household textiles added another $201 per household annually to this
total. The proposed Paragon Outlet Mall would compete to for this retail potential. In
addition, the Metro Area spent an average of $2,148 on apparel and services.
Retail Demand Potential and Leakage
Table 11 presents retail sales for Eagan and the immediate surrounding area in 2010. The sales
information is from ESRI based on household counts from the U.S. Census Bureau. This
information lists retail demand (potential sales), retail supply to consumers (retail sales) and
provides a picture of the gap between the area’s retail supply and demand. A positive value
represents “leakage” of retail opportunity to stores outside of the PMA, while a negative value
represents a surplus of retail sales, where customers are drawn to area retailers from outside
the PMA. The following are key points of the retail demand potential.

In 2010, Eagan and the immediate surrounding area had leakage in retail sales in nearly all
retail industry groups except for Other Motor Vehicle Dealers, Electronics and Appliance
Stores, Florists, Direct Selling Establishments, and Special Food Services.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan

May 9, 2012
Page 14
Highest leakage in retail sales occurs in Clothing Stores and Furniture Stores with factors of
74.0 and 60.0, respectively. Other sectors with high leakage include: Shoe Stores; Jewelry,
Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores, and Specialty Food Stores. It is predominantly these
types of stores that would be the focus of tenants in the Paragon Outlet Mall. The
development of the Paragon Outlet Mall would enable Eagan to retain some of this lost
revenue potential and capture revenue from other groups that had been either going
outside of Eagan or bypassing Eagan to spend these dollars at MOA and other traditional
regional shopping malls and lifestyle centers.
Leakage/Surplus by Industry
Food Services & Drinking Places
Nonstore Retailers
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
General Merchandise Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Gasoline Stations
Health & Personal Care Stores
Food & Beverage Store
Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Furniture & Home Furnishings Store
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
(10.0)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 15
TABLE 11
RETAIL DEMAND POTENTIAL AND LEAKAGE
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2010
Industry Group (NAICS Code)
Total Retail Trade and Food & Drink (NAICS 44-45, 722)
Total Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45)
Total Food & Drink (NAICS 722)
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers (NAICS 441)
Automobile Dealers (NAICS 4411)
Other Motor Vehicle Dealers (NAICS 4412)
Auto Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores (NAICS 4413)
Demand
(Retail Potential)
Supply
(Retail Sales)
SUMMARY
$50,581,253,521 $33,636,517,150
$42,944,718,064 $27,858,382,055
$7,636,535,457
$5,778,135,095
EXPENDITURE TYPE
$10,268,277,578
$6,508,308,779
$8,720,318,918
$4,705,211,711
$842,330,186
$1,275,357,414
$705,628,474
$527,739,654
Retail Gap
(Demand - Supply)
Surplus/Leakage
Factor
Number of
Businesses
20.1
21.3
13.9
994
717
277
$3,759,968,799
$4,015,107,207
($433,027,228)
$177,888,820
22.4
29.9
(20.4)
14.4
76
19
17
40
$783,685,970
$679,716,103
$103,969,867
41.6
60.0
13.9
38
9
29
$16,944,736,370
$15,086,336,008
$1,858,400,362
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores (NAICS 442)
Furniture Stores (NAICS 4421)
Home Furnishings Stores (NAICS 4422)
$1,333,236,194
$906,489,385
$426,746,809
$549,550,223
$226,773,282
$322,776,942
Electronics & Appliance Stores (NAICS 443/NAICS 4431)
$1,585,128,893
$1,729,054,096
($143,925,203)
(4.3)
95
Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores (NAICS 444)
Building Material and Supplies Dealers (NAICS 4441)
Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores (NAICS 4442)
$1,969,772,684
$1,561,455,253
$408,317,431
$1,665,310,062
$1,476,367,696
$188,942,366
$304,462,622
$85,087,557
$219,375,065
8.4
2.8
36.7
73
60
13
Food & Beverage Stores (NAICS 445)
Grocery Stores (NAICS 4451)
Specialty Food Stores (NAICS 4452)
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (NAICS 4453)
$8,223,880,023
$7,261,850,209
$296,729,854
$665,299,960
$5,435,811,930
$4,929,394,067
$97,465,885
$408,951,977
$2,788,068,094
$2,332,456,142
$199,263,969
$256,347,983
20.4
19.1
50.5
23.9
78
35
13
30
Health & Personal Care Stores (NAICS 446/NAICS 4461)
$1,244,439,335
$561,618,046
$682,821,289
37.8
55
Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447/NAICS 4471)
$7,139,547,502
$4,342,284,452
$2,797,263,049
24.4
50
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)
Clothing Stores (NAICS 4481)
Shoe Stores (NAICS 4482)
Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores (NAICS 4483)
$1,514,392,473
$1,174,380,475
$187,598,317
$152,413,681
$281,280,280
$175,749,633
$57,946,493
$47,584,154
$1,233,112,193
$998,630,843
$129,651,824
$104,829,526
68.7
74.0
52.8
52.4
55
32
9
14
$462,107,365
$281,533,564
$180,573,801
$334,117,078
$192,214,511
$141,902,567
$127,990,287
$89,319,054
$38,671,233
16.1
18.9
12.0
48
39
9
$7,171,207,325
$3,674,918,226
$3,496,289,099
$5,416,873,126
$2,362,556,324
$3,054,316,802
$1,754,334,199
$1,312,361,902
$441,972,297
13.9
21.7
6.7
32
11
21
$743,970,384
$38,567,806
$251,630,472
$30,532,467
$423,239,639
$353,636,101
$45,557,971
$179,064,418
$10,401,171
$118,612,541
$390,334,283
($6,990,165)
$72,566,054
$20,131,297
$304,627,097
35.6
(8.3)
16.8
49.2
56.2
104
18
34
7
45
Nonstore Retailers (NAICS 454)
Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses (NAICS 4541)
Vending Machine Operators (NAICS 4542)
Direct Selling Establishments (NAICS 4543)
$1,288,758,309
$1,022,466,176
$109,499,319
$156,792,813
$680,537,882
$352,939,909
$90,094,720
$237,503,254
$608,220,426
$669,526,267
$19,404,599
($80,710,440)
30.9
48.7
9.7
(20.5)
13
3
6
4
Food Services & Drinking Places (NAICS 722)
Full-Service Restaurants (NAICS 7221)
Limited-Service Eating Places (NAICS 7222)
Special Food Services (NAICS 7223)
Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages (NAICS 7224)
$7,636,535,457
$3,162,854,678
$4,062,765,142
$220,732,351
$190,183,287
$5,778,135,095
$2,216,579,361
$3,088,026,873
$376,563,347
$96,965,514
$1,858,400,362
$946,275,317
$974,738,269
($155,830,997)
$93,217,773
13.9
17.6
13.6
(26.1)
32.5
277
136
122
10
9
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores (NAICS 451)
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instrument Stores (NAICS 4511)
Book, Periodical, and Music Stores (NAICS 4512)
General Merchandise Stores (NAICS 452)
Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. (NAICS 4521)
Other General Merchandise Stores (NAICS 4529)
Miscellaneous Store Retailers (NAICS 453)
Florists (NAICS 4531)
Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores (NAICS 4532)
Used Merchandise Stores (NAICS 4533)
Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers (NAICS 4539)
Note: All figures quoted in 2010 dollars. Supply (retail sales ) estimates sales to consumers by establishments, sales to businesses are excluded. Demand (retail
potential) estimates the expected amout spent by consumers at a retail establishment. Leakage/Surplace factor measures the relationship between supply and demand
and ranges from +100 (total leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positive value represents "leakage" of retail opportunity outlide the trade area. A negative value
represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in from outside the trade area.
Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research Inc.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 16

By dollar volume, retail leakage was greatest in Automobile Dealers, Gasoline Stations and
Grocery Stores.

Data indicates that, while surpluses exist in a few categories, the proposed Paragon Outlet
Mall should be able to capture sales that are currently being transacted outside of Eagan
and the immediate area and is not likely to compete with existing retailers in the immediate
area to a significant degree.

Considering the forecasted age distribution and household incomes of the PMA population,
store types with high potential include: Clothing Stores; Furniture Stores; Home Furnishings
Stores; Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument Stores; and, Health and Personal Care
Stores. Clothing Stores and Home Furnishing Stores are those that will be targeted by the
proposed outlet mall.

Demand potential in the Eagan Trade Area will increase along with household growth over
the coming years, especially as the economy continues to rebound.
Retail Sales Trends
Tables 12 and 13 show retail sales for Eagan and the immediate surrounding communities as of
2005 and 2009. The sales information is from the Minnesota Department of Revenue, Tax
Research Division. This information provides a picture of the economic growth and
composition of the area’s retail sales market over the three year period. It should be noted
that companies operating businesses at multiple locations in Minnesota can file one
consolidated tax return and the sales numbers are reported for only that one location. By
comparison, the sales data in Table 11 was cleaned by ESRI to reflect sales at individual
locations by removing the headquarters location. This reporting difference creates disparities
in the sales numbers between Table 11 and Tables 12 and 13. The following are key
characteristics of the retail sales displayed in Tables 12 and 13.

Food and beverage purchases accounted for 6.2% of retail sales in Eagan and the immediate
surrounding area in 2009. Due to the economic recession’s impact on consumer spending,
retail sales in the area (minus food and drinking places) decreased by -19% from 2005 to
about $2.728 billion in 2009. Including food and drinking places, Eagan and the immediate
surrounding communities had $2.908 billion in sales in 2009. Retail sales throughout
Dakota County declined by -11%. All of the Trade Area communities experienced
weakening gross retail sales between 2005 and 2009. With a drop of -77%, Mendota
Heights experienced the largest drop during that time period. Retail sales in Inver Grove
Heights (-25%) and Rosemount (-11%) also experienced double-digit declines. The smallest
gross retail sales declines occurred in Eagan and Apple Valley, at -2% and -4%, respectively.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 17
TABLE 12
RETAIL SALES GROWTH
CENTRAL COMMONS MARKET AREA
2005 and 2009
City
Gross Retail Sales*
2005
2009
Change 2005-2009
No.
Pct.
Apple Valley
Eagan
Inver Grove Heights
Mendota Heights
Rosemount
$845,279,886
$1,008,075,086
$948,161,974
$441,816,845
$116,555,763
$815,341,910
$989,818,694
$715,375,123
$103,505,535
$104,086,558
-$29,937,976
-$18,256,392
-$232,786,851
-$338,311,310
-$12,469,205
-4%
-2%
-25%
-77%
-11%
Dakota County
$6,636,695,083
$5,925,883,506
-$710,811,577
-11%
* Excludes Food Service-Drinking Places
Sources: MN Dept. of Revenue: Tax Research Division; Maxfield Research, Inc.

At $1.105 billion, total retail sales in 2009 were highest in Eagan with Electronics stores
posting the highest sales volume. Throughout Eagan and the surrounding communities,
retail sales were highest at General Merchandise stores and Gasoline Stations.
TABLE 13
RETAIL SALES BY INDUSTRY
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2009
NAICS
Code
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
451
452
453
454
722
Retail Industries
Vehicles, Parts
Furniture Stores
Electronics
Building Material
Food Beverage Store
Health, Personal
Gasoline Stations
Clothing, Accessory
Leisure Goods
General Merchandise
Misc. Store Retailer
Non-Store Retailer
Food Serv, Drinking Pl
Subtotal
Apple Valley
Eagan
$138,329,597
$35,075,957
$12,950,785
$35,181,388
$49,396,281
$266,578,942
$78,643,496
$38,034,695
$96,111,869
$155,527,163
$35,935,664
$43,646,899
$54,115,106
$139,089,480
$39,151,493
$49,152,672
$20,555,453
$14,505,372
$252,022,499
$160,188,217
$36,418,838
$46,013,787
$1,710,829
$6,824,122
$4,492,046
$116,089,443
$819,833,956 $1,105,908,137
Communities
Inver Grove
Mendota
Heights
Heights
$187,484,783
$4,350,603
$30,571,265
$54,736,259
$49,405,823
$27,717,627
$203,431,163
$745,252
$391,857
$125,874,708
$13,857,471
$16,808,312
$31,562,056
$746,937,179
-$58,357,058
$2,133,623
-$1,812,098
$4,411,588
-$732,493
$1,237,475
-$34,316,806
$504,394
$7,947,942
$111,453,477
Rosemount
$8,081,651
-$170,267
$2,427,809
$51,613,592
-$21,666,652
$262,219
$567,928
-$18,434,813
$861,627
$20,210,379
$124,296,937
Dakota County
$1,046,090,131
$180,663,053
$430,090,800
$418,198,036
$759,747,984
$267,400,969
$821,582,540
$233,443,716
$394,743,441
$990,720,953
$305,284,121
$77,917,762
$520,874,969
$6,446,758,475
* Sales & tax data are suppressed when there are fewer than four businesses in any given industry code.
Sources: MN Dept. of Revenue: Tax Research Division
Maxfield Research Inc.

As illustrated in the following chart, all retail industries experienced declining retail sales
between 2005 and 2009 except for Food and Beverage, Personal Health, and General
Merchandise stores.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 18
Gross Retail Sales (Primary Market Area)
$0
$150,000,000
$300,000,000
Vehicles, Parts
Furniture Stores
$450,000,000
$600,000,000
2005
2009
Electronics
Building Material
Food Beverage Store
Health, Personal
Gasoline Stations
Clothing, Accessory
Leisure Goods
General Merchandise
Misc. Store Retailer
Non-Store Retailer
Types of Retail Goods and Customer Shopping Patterns
The following describes the various types of retail goods and the manner in which customers
generally shop for these goods. Because of the significant diversification of retail outlets, some
of these categories overlap in certain cases.
Shopping goods are those on which shoppers spend the most effort and for which they have
the greatest desire to comparison shop. The trade area for shopping goods tends to be
governed by the urge among shoppers to compare goods based on selection, service and price.
Therefore, the size of the trade area for shopping goods is affected most by the overall
availability of goods in alternate locations. Some examples of shopping goods include furniture,
appliances, clothing and automobiles. It is this category of goods that will be offered at the
proposed Outlet Mall.
Convenience goods are those that consumers need immediately and frequently and are
therefore purchased where it is most convenient for shoppers. Shoppers as a rule find it most
convenient to buy such goods near home, near work or near a temporary residence when
traveling. Examples of these types of goods include gasoline, fast food, liquor, groceries,
pharmaceuticals, health and beauty aids, among others.
Specialty goods are those on which shoppers spend more effort to purchase. Such merchandise
has no clear trade area because customers will go out of their way to find specialty items
wherever they are sold. By definition, comparison shopping for specialty goods is much less
significant than for shopping goods. Examples of these include gift shops, florists, pet stores,
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 19
art gallery, antiques, home furnishings, textiles (needlework and fabrics), art supplies, books.
The home furnishings segment has some overlap between shopping goods and specialty goods.
Impulse goods are those that shoppers do not actively or consciously seek. In stores, impulse
goods are positioned near entrances or exits or in carefully considered relationships to
shopping goods. Impulse goods are most likely to be located as a segment within other stores
to capture additional impulse revenue from customer traffic. Examples of these types of goods
are: candy and drinks at a dry cleaning establishment, candy or small novelty items near the
cash register at a gift shop, accessories or jewelry at the counter in a clothing store. These may
be located within existing stores, but would not be a separate establishment.
Retail Mix in Eagan
Table 14 and the charts that follow display information on the mix of retailers in Eagan as well
and the surrounding adjacent communities. The information is based on the North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS) for businesses in the Retail Trade and Food Services and
Drinking Places sectors. This data is compiled by ESRI from Infogroup and is current as of
January 2010. Infogroup references several sources to obtain their information including
directory listings such as Yellow Pages and business white pages; annual reports; SEC (Securities
and Exchange Commission) information; federal, state, and municipal government data; and,
information from the US Postal Service.

Food Services and Drinking Places represent the largest number of retailers in Eagan at
29.3%. Electronics and Appliance Stores represent 9.9% of all retailers in the City while
Miscellaneous Store Retailers represent 10.2% of all retail businesses. In comparison, Food
Services and Drinking Places represent 35.5% of all retailers in Eagan and the surrounding
communities. Personal Care Service businesses are the second most common retailer in the
area, at 9.1%.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 20
Number of Businesses by Retail Subsector: City of Eagan
Motor Vehicle & Parts
Dealers
Furniture & Home
Furnishings Stores
Food Services & Drinking
Places
Electronics & Appliance
Stores
Bldg Materials, Garden
Equip. & Supply Stores
Nonstore Retailers
Miscellaneous Store
Retailers
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care
Stores
General Merchandise
Stores
Gasoline Stations
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Clothing and Clothing
Book, and Music Stores Accessories Stores
Number of Businesses by Retail Subsector: Central Commons Area
Food Services & Drinking
Places
Health & Personal Care
Stores
Furniture & Home
Furnishings
Ambulatory Health Care
Services
Personal Care Services
General Merchandise
Stores
Motor Vehicle & Parts
Dealers
Miscellaneous Store
Retailers
Wireless Telecomm Carriers
Other
Sporting Goods, Hobby,
Book & Music
Electronics & Appliance
Stores
Automotive Repair &
Maintenance
Clothing & Clothing
Accessories
Banks & Credit Unions
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 21
TABLE 14
RETAIL BUSINESSES LOCATED IN EAGAN
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (NAICS)
Business
AUTC
TRANSPORT PARTS INC
CATCO
ROAD EQUIPMENT
MOTOPRIMO SOUTH LLC
REVOLUTION MARINE INC
AVIALL INC
EMBRAER AIRCRAFT
WORTHINGTON AVIATION PARTS INC
STINAR CORP
GOODRICH SENSORS & INTGRD SYST
ELLIOTT AUTO SUPPLY CO INC
NAPA AUTO PARTS
O'REILLY AUTO PARTS
O'REILLY AUTO PARTS
APPLIED DYNO TECHNOLOGY
NORTHWEST FILTER SUPPLY INC
GOODYEAR EAGAN TIRE & AUTO
GOODYEAR TIRE DEALER
SAM'S CLUB TIRE & BATTERY
TIRES PLUS GENERAL OFFICE
WHEEL CITY WHOLESALERS
JIM COOPER'S TIRE & AUTO SVC
WINGFOOT COMMERCIAL TIRE SYSTS
TIRES PLUS
UNIVERSAL COOPERATIVES INC
GRAIN EXPECTATIONS
WHITEHOUSE MATTRESS & FURN INC
SLUMBERLAND
PIER 1 IMPORTS
ORIGINAL MATTRESS FACTORY
MATTRESS GIANT
JERRY'S FLOOR STORE
CARPET KING
VALUE PLUS FLOORING
PRO-CISION FLOORING INC
ST PAUL LINOLEUM & CARPET
RUGS BY DESIGN
SHAW INDUSTRIES INC
FLOORING MD INC
SPECIAL TOUCHES WINDOW TRTMNTS
VALLEY BLINDS & DRAPERIES
WINDOW FASHION EXPO
FIRESIDE HEARTH & HOME
BED BATH & BEYOND
AMERICAN GLASS & MIRROR
MARCONE APPLIANCE PARTS CTR
SEARS HOME APPLIANCE SHOWROOM
ORECK
BEST BUY
RADIO SHACK
TAYLOR INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS
RADIO SHACK
REBOOT
SAMSUNG TELECOMMUNICATIONS
BURNSVILLE EAGAN COMM TV
TRAIL TV INC
MAGNOLIA HOME THEATER
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD INC
SHARED MINISTRY SYSTEMS
DATA DISTILLATION SYSTEMS LLC
BUILDING BLOCK COMPUTERS
GUARATEE BUSINESS SYSTEMS
Address
1519 CENTRAL PKWY
1000 APOLLO RD
3380 MIKE COLLINS DR
3275 DODD RD
3150 SIBLEY MEMORIAL HWY
3432 DENMARK AVE # 213
2995 LONE OAK CIR # 5
1279 TRAPP RD # 110
2995 LONE OAK CIR # 10
1256 TRAPP RD
1380 CORPORATE CENTER CURV
1446 YANKEE DOODLE RD
1988 RAHNCLIFF CT
3925 CEDARVIEW DR
625 YANKEE DOODLE RD # 120
1835 DIFFLEY RD
HIGHWAY 13 & CEDAR AVE
3035 DENMARK AVE
2015 SILVER BELL RD
1926 SHAWNEE RD
1835 DIFFLEY RD
3815 NICOLS RD
IH 35E & PILOT KNOB RD
1587 SHERWOOD WAY
2975 LONE OAK CIR
1257 NORTHWOOD PKWY
1275 PROMENADE PL
1380 DUCKWOOD DR
1245 TRAPP RD # 190
1964 RAHNCLIFF CT # 500
2020 CLIFF RD # 100
3109 NEIL ARMSTRONG BLVD
2956 CENTER CT
2915 COMMERS DR # 1200
1090 GEMINI RD
4387 N WOODGATE LN
4351 DUNROVIN LN
1853 NARVIK CT
1606 CLEMSON DR
3235 DENMARK AVE
1295 PROMENADE PL # 2
NOT PROVIDED
3199 PILOT KNOB RD
1294 TOWN CENTRE DR
3428 DENMARK AVE
1235 TOWN CENTRE DR
3035 DENMARK AVE
1301 CORPORATE CENTER DR # 150
1288 TOWN CENTRE DR
2805 W SERVICE RD
2150 JAMES ST
4215 NICOLS RD
1235 TOWN CENTRE DR
2600 EAGAN WOODS DR # 470
1007 CLIFF RD
4705 PEBBLE BEACH WAY
3209 TERMINAL DR # 100
1230 EAGAN INDUSTRIAL RD # 160
CONTINUED
ZIP
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55123
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55123
55121
55122
55121
55122
55121
55122
55121
55121
55122
55122
55122
55122
55121
55121
55122
55121
55121
55121
55123
55121
55122
55122
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55122
55123
55122
55122
55121
55121
55122
55121
55123
55123
55123
55121
55121
55123
55121
55122
55122
55122
55123
55121
55123
55123
55121
55121
NAICS Industry Group
Furniture & Home Furnishings
Emps
NA
5
9
34
8
3
3
9
30
50
250
NA
7
7
7
1
3
NA
NA
NA
NA
4
14
14
25
100
1
3
16
20
1
15
2
3
3
6
90
2
23
1
1
1
NA
7
1
5
NA
6
NA
NA
NA
NA
5
100
4
NA
6
10
14
1
3
5
5
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 22
TABLE 14 CONTINUED
Business
GALAXY COMPUTER INC
ACCESS POS LLC
SUMMIT INFORMATION RESOURCES
UNIQUE SOFTWARE CORP
CA DAN CORP
QSGI INTL
INTERNATIONAL MICRO TCHNLGS
MOUSEGLIDER
ESRI
IRMAC USA INC
SYMPLEX SOFTWARE SYSTEM
TIMESOLV CORP
D C PURATY INC
ARGENTA SYSTEMS
JACKPINE TECHNOLOGIES
E-COGNOSYS
WYDE CORP
COM SQUARED SYSTEMS
APEX IT
INTERCIM LLC
TEMPWORKS SOFTWARE
METRO-COMP
MATERIALS PROCESSING CORP
WORDSWORTH MARKETING COMM
BUILDING MATERIALS OUTLET
HOME DEPOT
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS
AMERICAN HARDWARE MUTUAL
KNOBS & MORE ARCHITECTURAL
ACE HARDWARE
EAGAN HARDWARE HANK
BERGHOMESS LLC
SUPERMAX TOOLS
AGGREGATE INDUSTRIES
OVERHEAD DOOR CO-THE NORTHLAND
AAA GARAGE DOOR CO
PREHUNG DOORS INC
COMPLETE GARAGE
WAYNE-DALTON OF TWIN CITIES
OVERHEAD DOOR
AUTO & TRUCK GLASS INC
GLASS DOCTOR
LIBERTY AUTO GLASS
GORDY'S PREMIER AUTO GLASS INC
STOCK BUILDING SUPPLY
SHERIDAN LAW OFFICES
WINDOW CONCEPTS OF MINNESOTA
PRIME BUILDING PRODUCTS INC
WINDOW CONCEPTS OF MINNESOTA
MARVIN WINDOW & DOORS
TURF WERKS
LARSON IRRIGATION
CENTRAL IRRIGATION SUPPLY
KOWALSKI'S MARKET
ASAIN FOOD MARKET
CUB FOODS
ECONOFOODS
DESI FOODS
CUB FOODS
RAINBOW FOODS
BYERLY'S FINE FOODS
EAGAN CONVENIENCE CTR
HOLIDAY STATIONSTORES
FOOD-N-FUEL INC
MAXFIELD
RESEARCH INC.
OASIS MARKET
Address
990 LONE OAK RD # 120
2935 WATERS RD
3140 NEIL ARMSTRONG BLVD # 127
4131 OLD SIBLEY MEMORIAL HWY
3554 WIDGEON WAY
3723 BROWN BEAR TRL
880 BLUE GENTIAN RD # 200
3470 WASHINGTON DR # 207
4555 ERIN DR
3432 DENMARK AVE
894 WESCOTT TRL # 103
545 77TH ST W
3445 WASHINGTON DR # 200
4660 SLATER RD # 222
2020 SILVER BELL RD # 36
1915 PLAZA DR # 100
NOT PROVIDED
2805 W SERVICE RD
PO BOX 21100
2795 HIGHWAY 55
3220 DENMARK AVE
2020 CLIFF RD # 2
2830 LEXINGTON AVE S
1975 SILVER BELL RD
1565 CLIFF RD # 22
1320 DUCKWOOD DR
1361 INTERLACHEN DR
1275 CORPORATE CENTER DR
2915 WATERS RD # 105
3195 TERMINAL DR
1275 CORPORATE CENTER DR # A
3320 TERMINAL DR
935 BLUE GENTIAN RD
3195 TERMINAL DR
NOT PROVIDED
NOT PROVIDED
4101 NICOLS RD
3390 COACHMAN RD
4470 ERIN DR # 101
2020 SILVER BELL RD # 15
2905 LEXINGTON AVE S # 2
3225 RANDOM RD
2797 EAGANDALE BLVD
1646 DIFFLEY RD
2105 CLIFF RD
1940 CLIFF LAKE RD # 2
1252 TOWN CENTRE DR
1020 DIFFLEY RD # 39714
1276 TOWN CENTRE DR
1299 PROMENADE PL
1380 DUCKWOOD DR
2660 EAGAN WOODS DR
2000 RAHNCLIFF CT
3390 COACHMAN RD # 202
CONTINUED
ZIP
55121
55121
55121
55121
55122
55121
55123
55122
55121
55122
55122
55121
55123
55121
55121
55122
55122
55122
55121
55122
55121
55122
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55122
55121
55122
55122
55123
55123
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55122
55121
55121
55122
55121
55121
55121
55122
55121
55121
55121
55122
55122
55122
55121
55123
55123
55123
55121
55123
55121
55122
55121
Bldg Materials, Garden Equip & Supply
Emps
10
13
13
15
27
30
NA
2
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
7
9
10
20
24
40
60
70
NA
45
2
16
115
4
5
NA
2
10
10
1
7
50
NA
10
20
2
6
30
NA
NA
NA
3
70
5
NA
7
50
68
25
NA
7
NA
1
NA
NA
2
118
200
220
NA
NA
3
3
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 23
TABLE 14 CONTINUED
Business
E-Z STOP STORES
OASIS MARKET
EAU CLAIRE MEAT
VON HANSON'S MEATS
MEADOWSWEET
CEDAR GROVE LIQUOR
CUB DISCOUNT LIQUOR
AMBER LIQUOR OF EAGAN
K LIQUOR
M T LIQUORY
COMERS LIQUORS
BLACK DIAMOND WINE & SPIRITS
E & M LIQUOR
T L LIQUOR
BLACKHAWK LIQUOR'S INC
BIG DISCOUNT LIQUORS
CELLARS WINES & SPIRITS INC
BYERLY'S WINES & SPIRITS
PERRIER WINES & LIQUORS
BIG TOP WINES & SPIRITS
MGM LIQUOR WAREHOUSE
PRIME THERAPEUTICS
CUB PHARMACY
PHARMACY AT PARK NICOLLET
SAM'S CLUB PHARMACY
PARK NICOLLET PHARMACIES
RAINBOW FOODS PHARMACY
FAIRVIEW EAGAN PHARMACY
CVS PHARMACY
TARGET PHARMACY
WALGREENS
WALGREENS
WALGREENS
MARY KAY COSMETICS
MARY KAY COSMETICS
SAM'S CLUB OPTICAL CTR
ST PAUL OPTICIANS
ADVANCED EYE CARE
HEALTH PRODUCTS DIRECT
SEATTLE SUTTON'S HEALTHY EATNG
GNC
GNC
QUALITY HEARING SYSTEM
RETONE
CEDAR-CLIFF BP
PRO-STOP FUEL
SINCLAIR OIL CORP
CEDAR DIFFEY BP
EAGAN BP
NEW-MART
FINA OIL & CHEMICAL
PDQ FOOD STORES
SUPER AMERICA
SUPER AMERICA
SUPER AMERICA
KWIK TRIP
INDULGE BOUTIQUE
WHISPER & FRIENDS
CLAIRE'S
BABY CARE
BREATHABLE BABY LLC
MAXFIELD
RESEARCH INC.
SAFETY STICKER STORE
Address
4195 NICOLS RD
1286 LONE OAK RD
1065 DIFFLEY RD
3615 PILOT KNOB RD
3044 HOLIDAY LN
4595 NICOLS RD
2864 EAGANDALE BLVD
2141 CLIFF RD
3745 KNOLL RIDGE DR
1967 SILVER BELL RD
1016 DIFFLEY RD
1274 LONE OAK RD
1629 LENA CT # 105
3090 COURTHOUSE LN # 200
525 DIFFLEY RD # 2050
1565 CLIFF RD
4130 BLACKHAWK RD # 100
3900 CEDAR GROVE PKWY
2113 CLIFF RD
1299 PROMENADE PL
1284 TOWN CENTRE DR
4182 PILOT KNOB RD
1020 DISCOVERY RD # 100
1020 DIFFLEY RD
1885 PLAZA DR
3035 DENMARK AVE
1885 PLAZA DR
1276 TOWN CENTRE DR
1440 DUCKWOOD DR
4241 JOHNNY CAKE RIDGE RD
2000 CLIFF LAKE RD
1274 TOWN CENTRE DR
2010 CLIFF RD
4554 CHES MAR DR
3692 WIDGEON WAY
3035 DENMARK AVE
3440 OLEARY LN
3908 CEDARVALE DR
1565 CLIFF RD
3400 FEDERAL DR
3344 PROMENADE AVE
2127 CLIFF RD # E
PO BOX 22237
4600 SLATER RD
850 LONE OAK RD
1815 DIFFLEY RD
4205 NICOLS RD
1969 SILVER BELL RD
1286 LONE OAK RD
4198 PILOT KNOB RD
2250 CLIFF RD
1379 TOWN CENTRE DR
3145 DODD RD # A
1095 DIFFLEY RD # D
1642 HICKORY LN
3324 PROMENADE AVE
3828 COUNTRY CREEK WAY
1593 WEXFORD CIR
4705 STRATFORD LN
CONTINUED
ZIP
55122
55121
55123
55122
55121
55122
55121
55122
55122
55122
55123
55123
55121
55122
55121
55123
55121
55122
55122
55122
55122
55121
55122
55123
55122
55121
55123
55122
55121
55122
55123
55122
55122
55122
55123
55123
55122
55123
55123
55121
55123
55122
55122
55122
55121
55122
55122
55122
55122
55121
55122
55122
55121
55122
55121
55122
55122
55123
55121
55121
55123
55122
55121
55122
55121
55123
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Gasoline Stations
Clothing & Clothing Accessories
Emps
4
9
12
12
13
15
NA
7
1
NA
NA
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
4
6
8
10
10
15
7
400
NA
NA
NA
2
2
3
5
10
25
25
28
NA
1
NA
NA
1
NA
1
2
3
1
3
4
4
5
7
8
8
9
10
10
11
12
20
NA
2
4
NA
NA
1
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 24
TABLE 14 CONTINUED
Business
OLD NAVY
MINNE ALTERATIONS & TAILORING
3 IN 1 TUXEDO RENTAL
CEDARVALE TAILORS
IDENTITY JACKETS
SAVVI FORMALWEAR
HELLY HANSEN
3 IN 1 TAILORS
PAYLESS SHOE SOURCE
FAMOUS FOOTWEAR
BVLGARI
SILVER LINING JEWELRY INC
GLOBAL DREAMERS
V T JEWELERS
WALDELAND JEWELRY & GIFTS
JEWELRY EXCHANGE
ERIK'S BIKE SHOP
PENN CYCLE
ON TRACK CEDARVALE INC
LOCKER ROOM OF EAGAN
PLAY IT AGAIN SPORTS
BASKETS ON OCCASION
MICHAEL'S ARTS & CRAFTS
MEMORIES BY MADELYN
WE MAKE IT
GAMESTOP
BIG SKY HOBBY
STITCHES BY THE DOZEN
QUILT COVE
FOXTONE MUSIC
BARNES & NOBLE
CEDAR CLIFF COLLECTIBLES
MIND'S EYE COMICS
ON COMMAND VIDEO
TJ MAXX
KOHL'S DEPARTMENT STORE
TARGET
WALMART
SAM'S CLUB
CUNO ENGINEERED PRODUCTS
JONTZ PRODUCTS
LAKELAND SUPPLY
LANE SALES INC
CULLIGAN STORE SOLUTIONS
MOIST PRODUCTS CO
C & D TRADING CO INC
MINNEX TRADING
DOLLAR TREE
EAGAN BEST FLORIST
SHOWERS OF FLOWERS
HOLMES CORP
BLACKHAWK INC
OFFICE MAX
OFFICE DEPOT
BALLOON CONNECTION
BALLOON CONNECTION
OMEGA COLLECTIBLES
COLLECTSOURCE OF MINNESOTA
CORPORATE GIFT
ALL THE BEST
RAVEY'S HALLMARK
HALLMARK CREATIONS
PARTY CITY
FASHION EXCHANGE CONSIGNMENT
GOODWILL
MAXFIELD
RESEARCH INC.
PRIMADONNAS
Address
1263 PROMENADE PL
2127 CLIFF RD # H
1977 SILVER BELL RD
PO BOX 22316
3324 PROMENADE AVE
1488 PINETREE PASS
1348 TOWN CENTRE DR
1287 PROMENADE PL
3854 KINGS WOOD CT
1520 PINETREE TRL
1520 THOMAS LAKE POINTE RD
1960 CLIFF LAKE RD # 103A
1340 DUCKWOOD DR # 11
3090 COURTHOUSE LN
1296 TOWN CENTRE DR
2290 CLIFF RD
1095 DIFFLEY RD # B
1256 TOWN CENTRE DR
1267 PROMENADE PL
723 N HAY LAKE RD
4045 PENNSYLVANIA AVE
3344 PROMENADE AVE
3402 FEDERAL DR
4186 COUNTRYSIDE DR
1291 PROMENADE PL
1565 CLIFF RD # 2
3040 EAGANDALE PL
1259 PROMENADE PL
1350 TOWN CENTRE DR
2000 CLIFF LAKE RD
1360 TOWN CENTRE DR
3035 DENMARK AVE
875 GENTLAN RD
PO BOX 21124
1325 EAGANDALE CT
4851 SAFARI CT N
1960 CLIFF LAKE RD
NOT PROVIDED
4001 PUMICE LN
2975 LONE OAK DR # 180
1271 PROMENADE PL
1284 TOWN CENTRE DR # 105
1287 WILDERNESS LN
4160 PILOT KNOB RD
1030 LONE OAK RD
3566 BLUE JAY WAY # 202
4176 PILOT KNOB RD
4176 PILOT KNOB RD
1283 PROMENADE PL
1279 PROMENADE PL
1565 CLIFF RD # 17
1247 NORTHWOOD PKWY
1306 DEERCLIFF LN
CONTINUED
ZIP
55121
55122
55121
55122
55122
55121
55122
55121
55123
55121
55122
55122
55122
55122
55123
55121
55123
55122
55122
55123
55123
55123
55121
55123
55123
55121
55122
55123
55122
55122
55121
55122
55122
55121
55121
55123
55122
55123
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55122
55122
55122
55122
55122
55121
55121
55121
55123
55123
55122
55121
55123
55122
55122
55122
55121
55121
55122
55121
55123
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music
Emps
40
1
2
2
4
5
NA
NA
5
8
NA
1
2
2
6
8
NA
15
1
5
6
NA
NA
1
1
9
1
1
14
3
50
1
3
NA
47
140
250
360
200
NA
NA
NA
2
22
48
NA
3
NA
NA
1
50
17
20
23
NA
5
NA
1
8
7
7
12
12
2
NA
3
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 25
TABLE 14 CONTINUED
Business
PET N PAWS
WET WORLD
WILD BIRD STORE
CHUCK & DON'S PET FOOD OUTLET
PETSMART
OWL GALLERY
NANCY ILLUSTRATED
CANVAS WALL
EAGAN CIGARS & TOBACCO STORE
EGANS CIGAR & TOBACCO ETC
REGALE GIFT SHOP
TOBACCO OUTLET
EAGAN TOBACCO
EAGAN FLORAL
SOTA SPORTS MEMORABILIA LLC
VENUS CREATIONS
COINSTAR
NEUMANN PHOTOGRAPHY & FRAMING
ART OF FRAMING
LASTING MEMORIES BY MICHELLE
FASTFRAME
FARRIS INCENTIVES INC
NALYNN FAVORS
MAKING SCENTS IN MINNESOTA
KOHLMAN INTERNATIONAL
WESTWIND MARKETING
PRIME THERAPEUTICS LLC
MAXI-VEND INC
ASANNI VENDING INC
CHANGER SERVICES
LANCER HOSPITALITY
CICI'S PIZZA
PAPA MURPHY'S TAKE 'N' BAKE
PAPA MURPHY'S TAKE 'N' BAKE
DOMINO'S PIZZA
PICCOLO'S PIZZERIA
PIZZA-N-PASTA
UMBRIA PIZZERIA EAGAN
DOMINO'S PIZZA
PIZZA MAN
PIZZA HUT
RED'S SAVOY PIZZA-EAGAN
CARBONE'S PIZZERIA
ITALIAN PIE SHOPPE
PAPA JOHN'S PIZZA
OLD CHICAGO
DOMINO'S PIZZA
DAVANNI'S PIZZA & HOT HOAGIES
DOMINO'S PIZZA
GREEN MILL RESTAURANT
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL
EL PARIAN MEXICAN RESTAURANT
HOBAN KOREAN RESTAURANT
JAKE'S CITY GRILLE
L BAKER RESTAURANT
LAS RANAS MEXICAN RESTAURANT
MC DONALD'S
PERKINS RESTAURANT & BAKERY
CLASSIC SAIGON RESTAURANT
CHINA GOURMET
GOLDEN STAR
HOVIE'S
JUNIOR'S CAFE & GRILL
NEW CHINA BUFFET
MAXFIELD
RESEARCH INC.
WILDCATS BAR & GRILLS
Address
4651 NICOLS RD
2143 CLIFF RD
1250 TOWN CENTRE DR
1295 PROMENADE PL
1960 CLIFF LAKE RD
4424 WILDERNESS RUN CT
3837 OVERLOOK CT
3450 PILOT KNOB RD # 104
1430 YANKEE DOODLE RD # 104
1960 CLIFF LAKE RD
1130 NORTHWOOD DR # 233
4100 MEADOWLARK CURV
1360 TOWN CENTRE DR
NOT PROVIDED
1268 TOWN CENTRE DR
1466 ENGLERT RD
4640 NICOLS RD
2073 KINGS RD
3187 RED OAK DR
1287 DUNBERRY LN
PO BOX 21141
1305 CORPORATE CENTER DR
3351 DONALD AVE
1255 TRAPP RD
1255 TRAPP RD
1292 TOWN CENTRE DR
1960 CLIFF LAKE RD # 113A
1380 DUCKWOOD DR
4162 PILOT KNOB RD
1965 CLIFF LAKE RD
1266 TOWN CENTRE DR
3442 DENMARK AVE
2135 CLIFF RD
3250 DENMARK AVE
3344 PROMENADE AVE # 107
1312 TOWN CENTRE DR
1975 SILVER BELL RD
1960 CLIFF LAKE RD
3355 MIKE COLLINS DR
1940 RAHNCLIFF CT
3470 WASHINGTON DR
1989 SILVER BELL RD
1288 PROMENADE PL
NOT PROVIDED
2090 CARNELIAN LN
3045 HOLIDAY LN
1095 DIFFLEY RD # C
1565 CLIFF RD # 3
CONTINUED
ZIP
55122
55121
55122
55123
55121
55122
55123
55123
55122
55121
55122
55122
55122
55123
55121
55122
55123
55122
55123
55122
55122
55122
55122
55121
55123
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55121
55123
55122
55123
55121
55122
55123
55122
55123
55123
55122
55121
55121
55121
55121
55123
55122
55122
55121
55122
55122
55122
55122
55121
55122
55122
55121
55122
55122
55123
55122
55121
55123
55121
55121
Nonstore Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Emps
NA
4
5
7
45
NA
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
10
2
2
NA
NA
1
2
3
3
2
2
2
1
300
1
4
30
25
NA
NA
NA
5
6
10
10
11
13
15
20
30
30
30
33
35
50
50
100
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
2
2
2
3
4
4
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 26
TABLE 14 CONTINUED
Business
ANNA CHUNG ORIENTAL RESTAURANT
DRAGON PALACE RESTAURANT
HO TING RESTAURANT
MAGIC THAI CAFE
OBEE'S SOUP-SALAD-SUBS
SAMBOL RESTAURANT
HONG WONG RESTAURANT
QUIZNOS
KFC
VALLEY LOUNGE
BLIMPIE SUBS & SALADS
SUBWAY
SUBWAY
QUIZNOS
SUBWAY
SUBWAY
SUBWAY
EL LORO MEXICAN RESTAURANT
WENDY'S
ANSARI'S MEDITERRANEAN GRILL
COOPER'S RESTAURANT
JIMMY JOHN'S
QUE VIET VILLAGE HOUSE II
KFC
LEEANN CHIN
CAFE CHILI PEPPERS
GENGHIS GRILL
RING MOUNTAIN CREAMERY CAFE
TACO BELL
NOODLES & CO
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL
JIMMY JOHN'S
BURGER KING
JENSEN'S SUPPER CLUB
ARBY'S
BIBO RESTAURANT & WINE BAR
BURGER KING
LA FONDA DE LOS LOBOS
MC DONALD'S
MC DONALD'S
POTBELLY SANDWICH WORKS
FITZ' BAR & GRILL
TIMEOUT RESTAURANT & SPORTS
MC DONALD'S
PANERA BREAD
MC DONALD'S
CHEROKEE SIRLOIN ROOM
PERKINS RESTAURANT & BAKERY
BONFIRE WOOD FIRE COOKING
CHILI'S GRILL & BAR
AL BAKER'S RESTAURANT
CULVER'S
DOOLITTLES WOODFIRE GRILL
HOULIHAN'S
JOE SENSER'S RSTRNT & SPORTS
APPLEBEE'S NEIGHBORHOOD GRILL
GRANITE CITY FOOD & BREWERY
BUFFALO WILD WINGS GRILL & BAR
RED SQUARE DELI
BRIANNO'S DELI-ITALIA
BRUEGGER'S BAGEL BAKERY
BRUGGERS BAGELS
BIG APPLE BAGELS
ARTISTA COFFEE
DUNN BROS COFFEE
MAXFIELD
RESEARCH INC.
AMBROSIA COFFEE
Address
1258 LONE OAK RD
1270 LONE OAK RD
1260 TOWN CENTRE DR
2139 CLIFF RD
4585 ERIN LN
1264 TOWN CENTRE DR
2040 CLIFF RD # 102
1565 CLIFF RD # 15
1360 TOWN CENTRE DR
3145 DODD RD # B
3655 PILOT KNOB RD
1960 RAHNCLIFF CT
4185 S ROBERT TRL
2874 HIGHWAY 55
1272 TOWN CENTRE DR
1287 TOWN CENTRE DR
2071 CLIFF RD
1282 TOWN CENTRE DR
1304 TOWN CENTRE DR
1295 TOWN CENTRE DR
1340 TOWN CENTRE DR
1980 RAHNCLIFF CT
1279 TOWN CENTRE DR
1629 LENA CT # 101
1275 TOWN CENTRE DR
4565 ERIN LN
1995 SILVER BELL RD
1298 PROMENADE PL
2864 HIGHWAY 55
1351 TOWN CENTRE DR
1260 PROMENADE PL
1075 DIFFLEY RD
4625 NICOLS RD
1345 TOWN CENTRE DR
1555 CLIFF RD
3625 PILOT KNOB RD
3434 WASHINGTON DR
3445 OLEARY LN
2140 CLIFF RD
1294 PROMENADE PL
3010 EAGANDALE PL
1335 TOWN CENTRE DR
3330 PILOT KNOB RD
1280 PROMENADE PL
2280 CLIFF RD
2149 CLIFF RD
1380 DUCKWOOD DR
1565 CLIFF RD
1012 DIFFLEY RD # 100
1278 LONE OAK RD
CONTINUED
ZIP
55122
55121
55123
55121
55121
55123
55122
55121
55122
55121
55123
55121
55123
55122
55122
55123
55121
55121
55122
55122
55123
55121
55123
55123
55122
55123
55123
55122
55123
55123
55121
55121
55122
55122
55123
55122
55123
55122
55122
55122
55121
55122
55121
55123
55121
55123
55122
55123
55122
55122
55122
55123
55122
55121
55121
55123
55121
55121
55122
55122
55122
55122
55123
55122
55123
55121
Emps
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
10
10
10
11
14
14
15
15
15
16
18
19
20
20
20
20
25
27
30
33
35
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
45
45
48
50
51
60
65
70
70
80
80
80
80
80
100
100
110
NA
30
10
10
12
NA
NA
3
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 27
TABLE 14 CONTINUED
Business
CARIBOU COFFEE
STARBUCKS
CARIBOU COFFEE
CARIBOU COFFEE
STARBUCKS
CARIBOU COFFEE
STARBUCKS
CARIBOU COFFEE
PUFFY CREAM DONUT PLUS
COLD STONE CREAMERY
DAIRY QUEEN
DAIRY QUEEN
SCHWAN'S HOME FOOD SVC
BUFFETS INC
MARIENCIA'S CATERING
ANSARI'S CATERING BY THE
CLASS ACT CATERING
LANCER MANAGEMENT SVC
LANCER DINING SVC
LANCER CATERING/COMO ZOO
STARKS SALOON
Address
2864 HIGHWAY 55 # 100
1646 DIFFLEY RD
610 OPPERMAN DR
1299 PROMENADE PL
2149 CLIFF RD # B
2040 CLIFF RD # 101
3390 COACHMAN RD
1264 TOWN CENTRE DR
4630 RAHNCLIFF RD
3385 DENMARK AVE
3707 KENNEBEC DR
1020 DISCOVERY RD # 100
NOT PROVIDED
3945 CEDARVIEW DR
3605 ASHBURY RD
1255 TRAPP RD
1255 TRAPP RD
1255 TRAPP RD
3125 DODD RD
ZIP
55121
55122
55123
55121
55122
55122
55122
55123
55121
55123
55122
55121
55122
55121
55122
55122
55122
55121
55121
55121
55121
Emps
10
10
12
14
17
20
21
22
NA
6
12
35
70
250
NA
2
6
25
30
200
10
Source: ESRI; Maxfield Research
As shown on the table, there are relatively few clothing and accessories retailers in Eagan. The
most prominent of these is the Old Navy store located at the Promenade shopping center.
There are also several jewelers and two discount footwear stores located in Eagan. The
proposed outlet mall may have some impact on sales at these outlets, however the offerings at
the footwear stores and Old Navy are unlikely to compete directly with the offerings at the
Outlet Mall because pricing will be higher for many of the shops, essentially in between the
pricing of Old Navy/Famous Footwear and tenants that would be attracted to the Outlet Mall.
General merchandise retailers such as Target and Walmart are unlikely to be affected to any
degree by the development of the outlet mall. Shoppers purchasing clothing at these stores
may also purchase at the Outlet Mall if they are seeking specific designer brands not available
at general merchandise outlets.
Regional Retail Market Conditions
Maxfield Research analyzed retail market trends for the Southeast Metro Area, including total
retail rentable area, vacancy rates, and absorption. The data is provided by Colliers
International (formerly Welsh), and the submarket is the smallest geographic level for which
the data is presented. This information is useful in assessing the potential for the proposed
Outlet Mall, identifying competitive retail facilities in the area that may be affected, positively
or negatively, since the overall health of the MSA retail market will influence the development
potential in Eagan.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 28
The Colliers data is based on a survey of Metro Area multi-tenant shopping centers with at least
30,000 square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). Retail properties have been classified into
three primary categories as established by the Minnesota Shopping Center Association:
Regional Centers are 400,000 square feet or more; Community Centers are between 150,000
and 399,999 square feet; and, Neighborhood Centers which are between 30,000 and 149,999
square feet in size. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) provides more
detailed definitions of the three primary categories of shopping centers.
Regional Center: This center type provides general merchandise (a large percentage of which is
apparel) and services in full depth and variety. Its main attraction is the combination of
anchors, which may be traditional, mass merchant, discount, or fashion department stores,
with numerous fashion-oriented specialty stores. A typical regional center is usually enclosed
with an inward orientation of the stores connected by a common walkway. Parking surrounds
the outside perimeter.
Community Center: A community center typically offers a wider range of apparel and other soft
goods than the neighborhood center. Among the more common anchors are supermarkets,
super drugstores, and discount department stores. Community center tenants sometimes
contain value-oriented big-box category-dominant retailers selling such items as apparel, home
improvement/furnishings, toys, electronics or sporting goods. The center is usually configured
in a straight line as a strip, or may be laid out in an L or U shape, depending on the site and
design.
Neighborhood Center: This center is designed to provide convenience shopping for the day-today needs of consumers in the immediate neighborhood. Roughly half of these centers are
anchored by a supermarket, while about a third have a drugstore anchor. These anchors are
supported by stores offering drugs, sundries, snacks and personal services. A neighborhood
center is usually configured as a straight-line strip with no enclosed walkway or mall area and
parking in the front. Centers may have a canopy or other façade treatment to provide shade
and protection from inclement weather, or to tie the center together.
ICSC identifies other shopping center types, including; superregional centers, power centers,
lifestyle, theme/festival centers, and outlet centers. Brief descriptions are provided below.
Superregional Center: Similar to a regional center, but because of its larger size, a superregional
center has more anchors, a deeper selection of merchandise, and draws from a larger
population base. As with regional centers, the typical configuration is an enclosed mall,
frequently with multiple levels. Parking may also be structured to accommodate the sheer size
of the center.
Power Center: A center dominated by several large anchors, including discount department
stores, off-price stores, warehouse clubs, or “category killers,” i.e., stores that offer a vast
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 29
selection in related merchandise categories at very competitive retail prices. The center
typically contains only a minimum amount of small specialty tenants.
Lifestyle Center: Most often located near affluent residential neighborhoods, this center type
caters to the retail needs and “lifestyle” pursuits of consumers in its trading area. It has an
open-air configuration and typically includes at least 50,000 square feet of retail space occupied
by upscale national chain specialty stores. Other elements differentiate the lifestyle center in its
role as a multi-purpose leisure-time destination, including restaurants, entertainment, and
design ambience and amenities such as fountains and street furniture that are conducive to
casual browsing. These centers may be anchored by one or more conventional or fashion
specialty department stores. MSCA also provides a definition for a Lifestyle/Open-Air Center
which is a non-enclosed center that is 400,000 square feet or larger.
Theme/Festival Center: These centers typically employ a unifying theme that is carried out by
the individual shops in their architectural design and, to an extent, in their merchandise.
Entertainment is often a common element of such centers, although it may come in the
shopping experience as much as in the tenants themselves. These centers are often targeted to
tourists, but may also attract local customers who might be drawn by the center’s unique
nature. Theme/festival centers may be anchored by restaurants and entertainment facilities.
Outlet Center: This center type consists of manufacturers’ and retailers’ outlet stores selling
brand-name goods at a discount. These centers are typically not anchored, although certain
brand-name stores may serve as “magnet” tenants. The majority of outlet centers are open-air,
configured either in a strip or as a village cluster, although some are enclosed.
Table 15 shows the growth of retail space by type (neighborhood, community, and regional),
along with the vacancy and net absorption for the Southeast Submarket and the Twin Cities
Metro Area for year-end 2009, year-end 2010, and third quarter of 2011. The following are key
points from the Table 15.

The distribution of retail space in the Southeast Submarket as of the third quarter of 2011
was 31% neighborhood, 26% community and 43% regional. Neighborhood centers
contained 59% of the vacant space in the submarket during the third quarter. Community
and regional centers contained 22% and 20% of the vacant space, respectively.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 30
TABLE 15
RETAIL SPACE VACANCY AND ABSORPTION
SOUTHEAST SUBMARKET
2009-2011
Market
Sector
Southeast Submarket
Neighborhood
Community
Regional
Total
Metro Area Total
Neighborhood
Community
Regional
Minneapolis CBD
Total
Year
Total
Rentable
Area
Total
Amount
Vacant
Percent
Vacant
Annual
Net
Absorption
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
4,971,344
5,055,515
4,977,658
4,031,610
4,264,610
4,242,594
6,935,594
6,935,594
6,989,944
15,938,548
16,255,719
16,210,196
429,012
490,164
494,956
214,394
151,874
183,576
121,058
146,064
165,989
764,464
788,102
844,521
8.6%
9.7%
9.9%
5.3%
3.6%
4.3%
1.7%
2.1%
2.4%
4.8%
4.8%
5.2%
-76,924
12,075
377
-17,754
62,520
-6,253
75,043
-25,009
54,078
-19,635
49,586
48,202
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
2009
2010
2011 YTD*
19,809,569
19,986,690
19,859,926
17,639,160
17,971,034
18,106,232
20,903,406
20,906,406
20,468,991
2,025,160
2,025,160
2,489,918
60,377,295
60,889,290
60,925,067
1,694,900
2,081,807
1,914,147
1,276,395
1,172,116
1,072,660
1,032,778
1,038,584
668,563
158,211
156,724
158,883
4,162,284
4,449,231
3,814,253
8.6%
10.4%
9.6%
7.2%
6.5%
5.9%
4.9%
5.0%
3.3%
7.8%
7.7%
6.4%
6.9%
7.3%
6.3%
-271,543
-291,346
178,861
-194,477
118,681
131,894
-625,815
-1,806
6,603
129,818
30,993
-2,159
-962,017
-143,478
315,199
*2011 YTD through 3rd quarter
Sources: Colliers International; Maxfield Research, Inc.

Southeast Submarket retail centers posted a vacancy rate of 5.2% in 2011, slightly higher
than the previous two years. Regional centers posted the lowest vacancy rate at 2.4%.
Neighborhood centers posted a vacancy rate of 9.9%, while community centers had a 4.3%
vacancy rate. Regional and community centers are posting the lowest vacancy rates among
the different classes of shopping centers. This poses a strong market for the Outlet Mall to
enter the market. It is unlikely to have a significant effect on the vacancy rates at regional
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 31
and community centers, but will strengthen the offerings in the area with regard to
“fashion” outlets.
Retail Vacancy Comparison
2011 Q3
12.0%
Southeast Submarket
Metro
10.0%
9.9%
9.6%
Vacancy Rate
8.0%
6.0%
6.3%
5.9%
5.2%
4.0%
4.3%
3.3%
2.0%
2.4%
0.0%
Neighborhood
Community
Regional
Total

Metro-wide, the delivery of new retail space has been flat over the past three years. The
ensuing recession has been particularly hard on the retail sector as retail development
typically follows new housing “roof tops.”

After steadily increasing the past several years, retail market conditions seem poised for
recovery as increasing employment and consumer spending will boost demand for retail
space. The retail vacancy rate declined in the Metro Area from 7.3% at the end of 2010 to
6.3% during the third quarter of 2011. Regional centers posted the lowest vacancy rate in
the Metro Area (3.3%), while Neighborhood centers posted the highest (9.6%).

The table shows that vacancy rates in regional centers declined 1.7 percentage points
during 2011 while experiencing minimal absorption. This vacancy decrease can be
attributed in large part to the recent closing of Brookdale Mall in Brooklyn Center. Plans to
redevelop this site into a Walmart-anchored shopping center have been approved.

According to the 2011 Retail Real Estate Report published by the Minnesota Shopping
Center Association (MSCA), average rental rates in the Southeast submarket held firm over
the past year, rising 0.4% to $16.35 per square foot.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan

May 9, 2012
Page 32
The following charts illustrate average retail real estate costs by submarket and center type.
Avg. of All Operating Expenses by Submarket - 2011
$30.00
Low Net
Avg. CAM
Avg. Taxes
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$4.88
$4.48
$3.71
$4.04
$3.60
$3.59
$3.22
$14.16
$14.52
$15.02
Northeast
Northw est
$4.05
$10.00
$17.21
$5.00
$0.00
Southeast
Southw est
SubMarket
Avg. of All Operating Expenses Twin Cities Metro Area - 2011
$35.00
$30.00
Avg. Taxes
Avg. CAM
Low Net
$6.41
$25.00
$4.40
$20.00
$15.00
$3.96
$3.89
$6.48
$3.14
$10.19
$3.46
$10.00
$14.51
$17.29
$18.69
$11.33
$5.00
$0.00
Neighborhood

Community
Regional
Retail Type
Mpls CBD
While retail absorption continues to perform below historic levels, several retailers are
taking advantage of market conditions and leasing vacated stores. Table 16 presents a
summary of selected national retailers that have either leased space in the past year or are
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 33
reported to be seeking space. This information is not all-inclusive, but it is intended to
provide a sample of the types of tenants seeking space. The retail category, square foot
range and desired facility type data is pulled from Retail Lease Trac, a national provider of
retail tenant information.
TABLE 16
SELECTED NATIONAL RETAILERS ACTIVE IN MARKET
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
Tenant
Herberger's
Walmart
Gordmans
Whole Foods
buybuy BABY
HomeGoods
Big Lots
Savers
Staples
ALDI
CVS/pharmacy
Walgreens
Trader Joe's
Dollar Tree
Ulta
Dollar General
Family Dollar
Dressbarn
Charming Charlie
Maurices
Jos. A Bank Clothiers
Chuck & Don's Pet Food
Anytime Fitness
Massage Envy
Michael Kors
White House | Black Market
Five Guys
Smashburger
Firehouse Subs
Little Caesars
Sport Clips
Complete Nutrition
Which Wich
Jimmy John's
Retail Category
Department Store
Department Store
Department Store
Supermarket/Grocery
Apparel - Childrens
Home Furnishings
Surplus/Salvage Store
Variety Store
Office Supplies
Supermarket/Grocery
Drug Store/Pharmacy
Drug Store/Pharmacy
Supermarket/Grocery
Variety Store
Beauty Supplies
Variety Store
Variety Store
Apparel - Womens
Gift Specialities
Apparel - Womens
Apparel - Mens
Pets/Pet Care/Supplies
Health/Fitness/Nutrition
Salon/Spa
Apparel - Family
Apparel - Womens
Restaurant (family)
Fast Food
Fast Food
Restaurant (family)
Salon/Spa
Health/Fitness/Nutrition
Food or Beverage Spec.
Fast Food
SF Range
65,000 - 200,000
40,000 - 235,000
49,000 - 51,000
40,000 - 75,000
28,000 - 60,000
24,000 - 26,000
20,000 - 30,000
20,000 - 30,000
14,000 - 18,000
16,000 - 18,000
11,000 - 13,000
14,000 - 15,000
10,000 - 14,000
8,000 - 12,000
8,000 - 10,000
9,000 - 10,000
7,000 - 10,000
7,000 - 8,000
5,500 - 7,000
5,000 - 5,500
4,000 - 5,000
3,500 - 4,500
3,000 - 5,000
2,500 - 3,500
2,500 - 3,000
2,200 - 4,000
2,000 - 3,000
1,600 - 2,200
1,500 - 2,000
1,200 - 1,600
1,000 - 1,400
900 - 1,500
600 - 2,500
600 - 1,800
Desired Facility Types
Lifestyle, Strip, Regional, Power
Free Standing, Power, Regional
Free Standing, Lifestyle, Power, Regional
CBD, Free Standing, Strip
Free Standing, Lifestyle, Power, Regional
Free Standing, Lifestyle, Strip
Free Standing, Strip
CBD, Free Standing, Strip, Power
CBD, Free Standing, Strip, Power
Free Standing, Power, Strip, Lifestyle
Lifestyle, Power, Regional
Lifestyle, Strip, Regional, CBD, Power
Free Standing
Lifestyle, Strip, Regional, Power
Lifestyle, CBD, Regional, Strip
Strip
Lifestyle, Strip, Power
Lifestyle, Strip
Lifestyle, Strip, Regional, CBD
Lifestyle, Outlet
CBD, Lifestyle, Strip
Lifestyle, Strip
CBD, Free Standing, Lifestyle, Strip, Power
Free Standing, CBD, Lifestyle, Strip, Regional
CBD, Free Standing, Strip Power
Sources: Retail Lease Trac; MSCA; MNCAR; Maxfield Research, Inc.

According to information presented in the 2011 Retail Real Estate Report published by the
Minnesota Shopping Center Association (MSCA), the grocery and general merchandise
segment is performing well and several retailers are expanding locally. Again, these
segments will not be found in the proposed Outlet Mall and the outlet center is not
expected to compete directly with the proposed Central Commons center, but is expected
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 34
to complement the offerings at Central Commons. White House/Black Market, currently
seeking sites may well locate in the proposed Outlet Mall to increase its offerings in the
Twin Cities market.
Selected Lifestyle/Open-Air Centers in Metro Area
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), lifestyle centers are typically
between 150,000 square feet and 500,000 square feet in size, will occupy ten to 40 acres of
land, and are designed in an open-air setting. They are not usually anchored in the traditional
sense but can have up to two anchors which could include large-format specialty retailers,
cinemas, or small department stores. Additionally, MSCA defines a “lifestyle/open-air center”
as a non-enclosed center that is 400,000 square feet or larger. Table 18 shows selected
lifestyle/open air centers in the Twin Cities Metro Area as identified by MSCA.
The data in Table 18 is provided to show the amount of space available, lease rates, operating
expenses, and a sampling of the centers’ tenant mix. Data was collected by Maxfield Research
Inc. from commercial listing sources, MNCAR, and the MSCA. Key points regarding
lifestyle/open-air centers follow.

At 4.5% vacant, lifestyle/open-air centers have maintained higher occupancy than other
centers throughout the Metro Area.

Over 50% of the Metro Area’s lifestyle/open-air center space is located in the northwest
submarket, the bulk of which is situated in the Arbor Lakes area of Maple Grove. The
southeast submarket contains 23% of the region’s lifestyle/open-air center space.

According to MSCA, average operating expenses in lifestyle/open-air centers are more
costly than community centers but less expensive than regional centers. Taxes at
lifestyle/open-air centers average $5.26 per square foot, compared to $4.40 in community
centers and $6.41 in regional centres. Common area maintenance charges average $4.07
per square foot, compared to $3.14 and $6.48 at community and regional centers,
respectively.

Average asking rental rates range from a low of $15.00 per square foot at Southtown
Shopping Center to a high of $30.00 per square foot at the newer Fountains of Arbor Lakes
and The Grove in Maple Grove.

While lifestyle/open-air centers can range in size and format, there are a few key elements
that are consistent in most successful lifestyle/open-air center.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
Center Name / Address
May 9, 2012
Page 35
Year
Built
Midway Market Place
1920
1400 University Ave W, Saint Paul
Total
Space
487,196
TABLE 18
SELECTED LIFESTYLE/OPEN AIR CENTERS
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
November 2011
Sq. Ft.
Vac.
Lease
Op. Exp/
Tax/
Available
Rate
Rate
Sq. Ft.
Sq. Ft.
Northeast Submarket
26,040
5.3% Negotiable
-
Summary of Tenants
Herberger's, Walmart, Dollar Tree
Cub Foods, LA Fitness
9,545
Northwest Submarket
1.9% $18.00 - $18.00
$3.00
$5.28
Home Depot, Walmart, Cub Foods
Michael's
3,597
0.7%
Negotiable
$2.44
$5.16
Target, Home Depot, Michael's,
Rainbow Foods, OfficeMax
25,209
2.7%
Negotiable
-
-
Sears, JC Penney, Kohl's, Best Buy,
Costco
43,785
11.8%
Negotiable
$7.71
$8.66
Trader Joe's, PF Chang's, Biaggi's,
Pottery Barn
12,203
2.6%
Negotiable
$5.77
$1.86
Byerly's, Toys/Babies R Us, Sports
Authority, Nordstrom Rack, Best Buy
36,042
6.6%
$16.00 - $30.00
-
-
42,534
5.3%
$27.00 - $30.00
$3.77
$7.90
Lowe's, Costco, Dick's Sporting Goods,
REI, Dave & Buster's
563,000
3,239
Southeast Submarket
0.6% Negotiable
-
-
Menards, Bed Bath & Beyond, Kohl's,
Michael's, Sam's Club, Staples
430,000
0
0.0%
-
-
Super Target, Cub Foods, Walgreens,
Best Buy
390,413
41,058
10.5%
Negotiable
-
-
Trader Joe's, H&M, Archiver's, DSW
Shoe Warehouse, Talbots
458,166
34,552
7.5%
Negotiable
$2.77
$3.36
Rainbow Foods, Kohl's, Petco, Barnes
& Noble, Potbelly Sandwish Works
The West End
2009
350,000
SWQ of I-394 & Hwy 100, Saint Louis Park
Southtown Shopping Center 1959
526,592
7801 Southtown Dr, Bloomington
Southbridge Crossing
2002
515,175
8050 Old Carriage Ct N, Shakopee
63,856
Southwest Submarket
18.2% Negotiable
-
-
Showplace ICON Theater, Rainbow
Foods, Crave, Hot Mama, Toby Keith's
6,619
1.3%
$15.00 - $25.00
$4.77
$3.09
Kohl's, Herberger's, Bed Bath & Beyond,
Hancock Fabric
7,365
1.4%
$20.00 - $22.00
$4.52
$6.96
Walmart, Michael's, Sam's Club, Pier 1
Imports
The Village of Blaine—Retail 2001
490,200
4345 Pheasant Ridge Dr, Blaine
Riverdale Commons
1998
518,033
3300 124th Ave NW, Coon Rapids
Riverdale Village
2000
950,148
12785 Riverdale Blvd NW, Coon Rapids
Shoppes at Arbor Lakes
2003
372,000
12101 Elm Creek Blvd N, Maple Grove
Arbor Lakes—Phase I & II
1999
466,477
Arbor Lakes Pkwy & Main St , Maple Grove
The Grove
2007
550,000
NEQ of Co Rd 30 & I-94, Maple Grove
The Fountains of Arbor Lakes 2007
800,000
NEQ of I-94 & Hemlock Ln, Maple Grove
Fischer Market Place
2002
14880 Florence Trl, Apple Valley
Southport Centre
1990
15050 Cedar Ave S, Apple Valley
Woodbury Lakes
2005
I-94 & Radio Dr, Woodbury
Woodbury Village
1992
7020 Valley Creek Plz, Woodbury
-
-
Home Depot, Super Target,
Slumberland
Summary/Averages
7,867,400
355,644
4.5%
Sources: MN Shopping Center Association; MNCAR; Maxfield Research Inc.
–
Lifestyle/open-air centers work best in markets that have relatively high
incomes, a large concentration of families, and a prevalence of white collar jobs.
–
There needs to be a critical mass of retailers that keep customers coming back to
the center. The tenant mix should contain a variety of unique draws to pull
shoppers from a large trade area.
–
While a traditional department store anchor isn’t necessary, the presence of
some sort of anchor such as an entertainment venue or upscale grocer will help
generate steady traffic.
–
The proposed outlet mall is unlikely to compete directly with most lifestyle
centers in the Twin Cities as these centers typically have a higher proportion of
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 36
entertainment and restaurant offerings. In addition, the existing lifestyle centers
are generally at the edges of the Twin Cities Metro Area in Woodbury and Maple
Grove, resulting in a geographic gap in the Southeast quadrant to incorporate an
outlet mall format that is targeted to “fashion.”

–
Being located in a mixed-use area containing a blend of residential, commercial
and office uses can also help generate a solid customer base.
–
Lifestyle/open-air centers typically recruit from the same tenant base as regional
malls, so the presence of regional malls, particularly those with vacancies, can be
a detriment to leasing activity.
With the exception of Shoppes at Arbor Lakes, Arbor Lakes I & II, Woodbury Lakes, and
West End, all of the lifestyle/open-air centers in the Metro Area are anchored by traditional
department store or big box formats, such as; Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Kohl’s, Costco,
and Sam’s Club. Arbor Lakes and Shoppes at Arbor Lakes are located in close proximity to
the 16-screen AMC Theatre and West End is anchored by a ShowPlace ICON Theatre.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 37
Lifestyle/Open-Air Center Locations
Riverdale Village
Riverdale Commons
The Village of Blaine
The Grove
Shoppes at Arbor Lakes
Arbor Lakes I&II
Fountains of Arbor Lakes
The West End
Midway MarketPlace
Woodbury Lakes
Woodbury Village
Southtown Center
Southbridge Crossing
SITE
Fischer Market Place
Southport Centre
Retail Development History in Eagan
Maxfield Research Inc. examined building permit data to estimate the number of retail
buildings and total retail space added in Eagan since 2000. Our findings are presented in Table
19.

Over 600,000 square feet of new retail space was constructed in Eagan between 2000 and
2010. Nearly 25% of this space was added in 2001 with the completion of Sam’s Club at
3035 Denmark Avenue.

Twenty percent of this space was delivered in 2008 as The Shoppes at Diffley Crossing and
Diffley Marketplace were completed.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan

May 9, 2012
Page 38
Retail development slowed down considerably in Eagan after 2008 as the economic
recession stalled development activity around the Country.
TABLE 19
RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN EAGAN
2000 - 2010
Property Name
Address
Slumberland
Sam's Club
Oakview Plaza
3235 Denmark Ave
Magnum Retail Center
Jim Cooper's Tire
Alliance Health Care
Centennial Ridge Bldg 1
Centennial Lake Center
Wings Financial FCU
CVS Pharmacy
Tires Plus and Oil Express
The Metro Convenience Store
Grand Oak Bank
McDonald's
Shops at Grand Oak
Hawthorne Woods Retail Center
Best Buy
Shops at Grand Oak
Goodwill
Northwood Court Retail Ctr.
Cliff Lake Retail Center
Prime Security Bank
Walgreens
Postal Credit Union
Holiday Station Store
The Shoppes at Diffley Crossing
Kowalski's
Diffley Marketplace
Cub Foods
Think Bank
1257 Northwood Pkwy
3035 Denmark Ave
3090 Courthouse Ln
3235 Denmark Ave
2040 Cliff Rd
4180 Blackhawk Rd
2260 Cliff Rd
1629 Lena Ct
1625 Lena Ct
3240 Denmark Ave
4241 Johnny Cake Ridge Rd
2270 Cliff Rd
1650 Diffley Rd
2815 Dodd Rd
1995 Silver Bell Rd
2864 Hwy 55
525 Diffley Rd
1235 Town Centre Dr
2874 Hwy 55
1247 Northwood Pkwy
3250 Denmark Av
1965 Cliff Lake Rd
1595 Thomas Center Dr
1274 Town Centre Dr
3225 Denmark Av
2660 Eagan Woods Dr
1654 Diffley Rd
1646 Diffley Rd
1012 - 1016 Diffley Rd
1020 Diffley Rd
4245 Johnny Cake Ridge Rd
Square Feet
Year Built
34,925
139,776
10,350
13,150
8,075
10,295
15,405
11,690
7,820
5,299
13,639
12,305
4,026
30,500
4,042
9,889
22,966
45,000
3,707
20,600
10,716
14,624
7,872
14,490
5,000
5,500
19,200
30,000
20,000
42,656
9,900
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2010
Sources: Metropolitan Council; MNCAR; Dakota County GIS; Maxfield Research
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 39
Retail Completions by Year
City of Eagan
160,000
140,000
Square Feet
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Planned and Pending Retail Developments
Maxfield Research Inc. interviewed community development and planning staff in Market Area
communities to determine if any new large retail developments are under construction or
planned in their respective communities. The following is a description of the pending retail
projects.
Inver Grove Heights

Originally intended to be a SuperTarget store of 135,000 square feet near the intersection
of Highway 55 and South Robert Trail, the project has now been downsized to a P-Fresh
concept. The project was initiated in 2007, but construction stopped in 2008. The P-Fresh
format is not intended to offer a full line grocery segment, but rather a smaller, more
modest convenience foods area.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 40
Eagan

The Cedar Gove Redevelopment area is a proposed mixed use project consisting of
commercial, multi-family and single family housing, senior and assisted living facilities, and a
corporate campus located in the southeast quadrant of Highway 77 and Highway 13.
Concept plans for the area include approximately 100,000 square feet of neighborhoodoriented retail development. The proposed Paragon Outlet Mall with approximately
400,000 square feet of space is likely to supplant the traditional neighborhood shopping
space, but will complement and further expand the retail offerings in Eagan in categories
that are currently not well-represented. Other proposed developments nearby will not
compete with the proposed Outlet Mall.
Mendota Heights

A redevelopment of Mendota Heights Plaza was recently completed with a remodeling of
the existing 46,000 square foot building along with the construction of a 14,820 square foot
Walgreens, a new 7,600 square foot restaurant and a separate 12,000 square foot retail
building. A second phase which will include another 10,800 square foot commercial
building, a childcare facility, a 36,000 square foot office building and senior housing is
planned. Timing of this second phase will be based on market conditions.
There are no retail projects under construction or pending in Apple Valley, Sunfish Lake or
Rosemount, although Menards is considering relocating from their existing store in Apple Valley
into a new location near the transit station. It should be noted that, with the exception of four
churches, the entire city of Sunfish Lake is zoned single-family residential and there is no
commercial development. Outside the Eagan area, there are several large planned community
center and regional center developments that could compete for some tenants that may also
become tenants of the Paragon Outlet Mall. In essence, retail manufacturers may decide to
locate in other developments, again with a dual distribution concept.
The following points provide a brief summary of these projects.

A high-profile development being discussed is the expansion of Mall of America. Expansion
plans include a Radisson Blu hotel, a Mayo Clinic Gateway, event space, water park, and a
mix of retail, restaurants and entertainment. Timing for construction of the retail
component is uncertain.

Gatlin Development has begun construction on the Walmart-anchored Shingle Creek
Crossing in Brooklyn Center located on the site of the recently-demolished Brookdale
Center. This project will contain approximately 500,000 square feet of retail space in
addition to the Walmart Supercenter.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 41

The Avalon Group is marketing land in the TimberCrest at Lakeville development at I-35 and
185th Street for approximately 200,000 square feet of new retail development. They are
targeting big box retailers as well as restaurants and specialty shops.

Red Rock Territory is a proposed master-planned community by Stonehenge USA along I-94
near Manning Avenue in Woodbury. The retail portion of this project could accommodate
up to 500,000 square feet of big-box, destination, grocery and restaurant space.

Property known as the “Bus Barn” site located at the northeast corner of Snelling Avenue
and I-94 near Midway Shopping Center in St. Paul has been conceptually planned for
approximately 582,000 square feet of retail and entertainment space. This property is
owned by the Metropolitan Council, and short term plans include using the site for bus
parking and construction staging for the Central Corridor transit project through 2014.

As mentioned previously, tenants for these developments are unlikely to compete directly
with tenants at the proposed Outlet Mall and are more likely to compete indirectly with the
Central Commons development.
Retail Development Potential
Demand for additional retail space for the proposed Paragon Outlet Mall, measured in gross
leasable space in square feet, is calculated in Table 20. The table combines demand
information with supply to calculate the amount of retail space supportable for the proposed
concept. Sources of data used in the calculations include the Metropolitan Council and
Maxfield Research Inc. (household growth trends), ESRI (consumer expenditures). The demand
calculation in Table 20 begins with an estimation of the expenditures by Twin Cities Metro Area
residents for retail goods that are anticipated to be provided by the proposed Outlet Mall. The
following points summarize the retail demand methodology.

Because of growth in the Twin Cities Metro Area (TCMA) household base and accounting for
inflation, TCMA residents are expected to increase their overall retail expenditures from
$2.9 billion in 2014 to nearly $3.7 billion in 2020.

The Twin Cities Metro Area is expected to capture additional retail expenditures from other
households coming into the area from other locations including greater Minnesota, other
states and visitors to the Mall of America and other tourist attractions. For the purposes of
this calculation, we estimate a surplus expenditure calculation of 20% coming into the
TCMA from outside. As previously mentioned, the proposed Paragon Outlet Mall will
attract “fashion” tenants whereby the manufacturers have specific merchandise that is
dedicated to an outlet store versus their traditional regional mall or power center stores.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 42

As a result of the proposed development, surplus in the TCMA is expected to remain at par
over the period at 20% to 2020.

Examining consumer expenditure data with retail sales data, we note that the largest
leakage rates occur in Clothing Stores and Furniture Stores with factors of 74.0 and 60.0,
respectively. Other sectors with high leakage include: Shoe Stores; Jewelry, Luggage, and
Leather Goods Stores, and Specialty Food Stores. Clothing and Shoe Stores, Leather Goods
Stores and a few home furnishings stores are likely to be those most attracted to the
proposed Outlet Mall and will expand the offerings in the City of Eagan with little to no
negative impact on other retailers.

Store types with high potential include: Clothing Stores; Furniture Stores; Home Furnishings
Stores; Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument Stores; and, Health and Personal Care
Stores. Again the proposed Outlet Mall will provide stores in the categories where there
has been an identified gap.

Data indicates that, while sales surpluses exist in a few categories, a variety of retailers
considering the subject property should be able to capture sales that are currently being
transacted outside of the Eagan area.

The household base in the TCMA is expected to grow by 48,415 households between 2014
and 2020, an average of 8,069 households annually over the six-year period. The result will
be growth in retail apparel and accessories and household textile expenditures by TCMA
residents of $800 million from 2014 to 2020.

Growth in the number of households results in total “purchasing power” – or retail sales in
the TCMA – of and estimated $2.3 billion in 2014 and $3.7 billion in 2020.

Using information obtained from national outlet retailers in other locations, we anticipate
that the average retail sales per square foot at the proposed Outlet Mall would increase
from about $350 psf in 2014 to potentially $400 psf in 2020. As of 2010, the overall average
per square foot sales for outlet mall stores was $331 psf. The 2014 retail sales per square
foot number reflects an estimate based on the performance of other recently constructed
outlet malls in the Midwest and national figures for outlet stores located in outlet malls.

Dividing purchasing power by average retail sales per square foot equates to total demand
for about 8.3 million square feet of retail space in the PMA in 2014, increasing to about 9.1
million square feet in 2020 or a net gain of about 800,000 square feet over the six-year
period.

We estimate that the subject property can capture approximately 5% of the retail demand
based on its location in the retail market area and its characteristics, resulting in demand
from TCMA households for roughly 417,000 square feet in 2014, increasing to about
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 43
456,000 square feet in 2020. The remaining 95% of retail sales will occur at locations
throughout the Twin Cities Metro Area.

Due to the size and scope of the proposed retail development, the Site could also be
expected to capture some additional demand from outside of the TCMA that is not
accounted for in these figures.

Because of its freeway access and location within Dakota County, we anticipate that the
proposed Paragon Outlet Mall at Cedar Grove will be able to capture 5% of total current
demand from the TCMA. The proposed Outlet Mall will have a draw that is regional in
scope, one that will draw from the entire Twin Cities Metro Area and beyond.

In total, we expect that the proposed Outlet Mall, which is expected to have approximately
400,000 square feet should be able to easily absorb this space by capturing slightly less than
5% of the potential demand for apparel and accessories and household textile expenditures
in the region. Maintaining a capture rate of 5% should enable the Outlet Mall to increase its
retail sales per square foot to $400 or slightly higher by 2020. Recruiting a mix of retailers
that provide goods and services not already present in the market increases the likelihood
that the higher end of this range can be achieved.
Mr. Jon Hohenstein
City of Eagan
May 9, 2012
Page 44
TABLE 20
DEMAND FOR RETAIL SPACE
PARAGON OUTLET MALL
2014 to 2020
2014
Trade Area (Metro Area) Households
(times) Annual HH Expenditures 1
(equals) Total Trade Area Expenditures
2020
988,885
$2,458
$2,935
$2,430,679,330
$3,044,475,500
20%
20%
$2,916,815,196
$3,653,370,600
$350
$400
8,333,758
9,133,427
5%
5%
416,688
456,671
(plus) % of Surplus coming into the Trade Area
(equals) Total Expenditures in the Trade Area
(divided by) Average Sales per Sq. Ft. 2
(equals) Total Retail Space Demand
(times) % of Metro Demand Capturable
(equals) Retail Space Supportable on Subject Site
1,037,300
1 Expenditures include Apparel and Accessories and Household Textiles
2 Esimtate based on average retail sales per square foot of outlet stores in the country and recently constructed
outlet malls in the Chicago area.
Sources: Maxfield Research Inc.; ESRI, Metropolitan Council; ICSC; Value Retail News

Outlet Retail Market Study May 2012

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