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http://edition.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/conditions/04/03/brazil.dengu
e/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
Kort film?
Ngt om tröskeleffekt
Land use change
(deforestation, urban sprawl)‫‏‬
Rapid urbanization
Infrastructural development
(esp. irrigation systems,
creation of new urban
”habitats”)
Eroded health infrastructure
in the 1980s and 1990s
”Quick fix” solutions create
more resistant vectors
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Dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2007-2008
1. Fast evolving surprise with the
ability to create a crisis that
cascades across system boundaries, and
spatial scales
2. Complex and multilevel underlying
drivers
3. Recombination potential with
additional stresses, such as poverty,
eroded health infrastructure creates
A New Generation of
Ecological Crisis?
Avian flu
(H5N1)‫‏‬
“Wheat rust”
Food crisis/agflation
Ug99
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No repeated global
assessment of
ecosystem change
(c.f. IPCC)
Fragmented social,
economical and
ecological data –
trends impossible,
geographic gaps.
Economic evaluation
of ES
Global change in the political
landscape
Decentralization
”One of the most important global
policy experiments”
”Increased problem solving capacity”
”Decentralization can lead to more
efficient governance, better link to
local context” -> higher capacity to
deal with complex problems
Forest co-management, water management,
ecosystem management, development
Public-Private Partnerships
– formalized collaboration between state
actors and private/non-state actors
Expectation: more flexible and efficient
way to reach political aims.
Not privatization – not state controlled
Water, health, biodiversity conservation,
etc.
Non-Governmental Organizations
Increased number and participation of
NGOs, ”think-tanks”, epistemic
communities at all political levels.
Biodiversity, climate policy,
fisheries policy, m.m.
International agreements
Increased influence of multilateral
agreements on national policy
e.g. Kyoto-protocol, EU:s Framework
Directives, Convention on Biological
Diversity, World Trade Organization,
etc
1960: 20 , 1990: 140,
than 700
2005: more
Centralized decisionmaking
DecisionCentral policy-maker (e.g.
environmental ministry)
making
Regional or local state
authorities
Implementation and mo
Local natural resource users
Behavioral response
Decision-making in complex
governance systems
International norms,
agreements
Decisionmaking,
implementatio
Non-state
n,
actors
negotiations,
Implementation,
monito
Regional or local state authorities
partnerships
negotiations, partners
Central policy-maker (e.g.
environmental ministry)
Decentraliz
ation
Local natural resource users
Decision-making, implementation,
Monitoring, partnerships
Institutions,
organizations or networks?
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WHO
Institutions,
organizations or networks?
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Private
Business
Bill and
Melinda
Gates
Foundation
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WHO
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Global Environmental Change +
Global ”Governance” Change
Are they compatible? How does this
affect our capacity to deal with
complex, non-linear, multilevel
social-ecological systems?
What do YOU think?
”Good Governance” according to the
World Bank:
Voice and Accountability, Political
Stability and Absence of
Violence/Terrorism, Government
Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule
of Law, and Control of Corruption.
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
No data/n.a.
Does ”good governance” matter
for protecting vital
ecosystems?
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
No data/n.a.
Forest Cover Change
Biodiversity (bird population)
High levels of
corruption
Low levels of
corruption
Temporal
misfits
The Sahel region
1950s-60s
”Roving Bandits” F. Berkes
et. al. 2006
Thresholds
misfit
Cod stock collapse, Newfoundland, (Canada)
Methane
outburst
Biostability/
collapse
Amazonian
region
Fast
Speed of
change
Very
large
Spati
al
Limite
distr
Slow
Lo
w
Uncerta
inty
Hi
gh
d
Major governance puzzles institutional diversity
Enhances our
capacity to deal
with with
uncertainty and
change.
Elinor Ostrom: no
”blue-prints” for
ecosystem
management.
Folke: helps us
recover and
innovate.
”Portfolio of
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Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
r
u
t
Dis
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Social, technical, economical,
environmental change
ce
n
baInst. A
Collapse
Inst. E
Inst. B
Inst. F
Inst. D
Inst. B
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. A
Inst. C
Inst. E
Inst. G
Inst. 0
Inst. F
Inst. C
Inst. C
Inst. A
UK and the ”Mad cow
disease” (BSE),1996
- surprise, decision-making
under severe time stress
and high scientific and
social uncertainty
- Lack of central
coordination,
communication between key
decision makers, and to
the public, poor.
Margaret Thatchers fault!
Gerodimos (2004). Public Adm.
82(4).
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Financial crisis rapid global coordination,
adaptive strategies, huge
investments despite cascading
events and high uncertainty
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Financial Crisis vs Earth System
Crisis
1) Earlier and similar economic crises provide
a number of “lessons learned”
2) Key decision-makers and central
institutions promptly identified
3) Fi
i l
t
d
idl
d
ith
Major governance puzzles –
centralization vs
decentralization
Decentralized
systems
+ possibility to innovate in the face
of surprises, early warning, and
prompt response
-can be overwelmed by disturbance,
fail to coordinate with other ”small”
units
Centralized systems
+ have overview, track long term
changes, compensate for maladaptive
lower units
- too far away to detect early
warnings, and innovate. Information
Information
overload
The SARS
crises
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Too Good to
be True?
“High
Reliability
Organizations”
- organizations
with the
capacity to
cope with both
incremental
change and
catastrophic
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Capacity to collect and
analyze very large amounts of
information, detect early
warning signals, and
facilitate fast coordination
of large number of actors.
Decision-making dependent on
the type of change in
environment.
High capacity for learning
after crises, strong
incentives to report and take
initiatives to repair
Is it possible? Governing
Epidemics
Bild epidemics
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Bubonic Plage, Surat
the spread (India)1994
of
In 1994
bubonic plague in the
city of Surat deaths of
57 people, significant
economic losses, and
social and political
effects. Over 300,000
people deserted the city
(in two days!)
How small innovations and
perceived crisis makes a
global difference!
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”atypical pneumonia”,
respiratory
disease”
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WHO
Country A
Country B
Global Outbreak Alert and Response N
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Collaboration
between over
120 actors
(governments,
ministries,
laboratories,
NGO’s)
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- prompt
coordination
to secure fast
response
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Pre-crises phase
Warning Confirmation phase
Warning Response phase
We are far away from such a
system…
Division for Early
WHO/GOARN UNEP
Early warnings:Warning
builds and
on Assement
both ”formal”
and warnings: builds
Early
”informal data” (GPHIN,
both formal data
ProMed). 1,1 on
million
only. Acknowledged
Euro/Yr
bias
Response: Prompt
in and lack of data.
collaboration77,5
with million
WHO,
Euro/yr
regional offices, NGO’s,
Response:
health ministries,
Recommendations to
technical labs.
governments
Tools: coordinating
arenas, -> slow or
adhoc groups,non-existing
secure
webpages, teleconferences.
No repeated global
assessment of
ecosystem change
(c.f. IPCC)
Fragmented social,
economical and
ecological data –
trends impossible,
geographic gaps.
Is there any hope?
Yes!
Economic evaluation
of ES
incl. GEO-4,
'tipping points'
International Panel for
Ecosystem Services
(IPES)?
Both incremental
change
and abrupt
surprising change
including
cascading
dynamics
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Eco ”tipping points”
change at the tipping point sets in motion mutually
inforcing feedback loops that propel the system on
a completely new course.
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Governance for innovation
• Innovation research tends to focus
on innovations in business and
technical systems
• Can they be applied for SES
innovations?
• Institutional context? Policy
interventions?
• Global orchestration?
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Summing up
• Solutions at the interface technology, ecology and social
sphere
• Positive ”tipping points” escalating improvements, not only
crises.
• Quality of Governance - include
dynamics of SES.
• Information technology could have
revolutionary impact on governance.
• Building on past successes - HRO,
Thank you!
[email protected]
.se
1.Vilket svenskt politiskt parti
hamnar närmast tankesättet att
komplexa system kräver
diversitet, ständig anpassning
och lärande? Varför? Varför
inte?
2.Är det önskvärt att formulera
ekosystemkriser som en
säkerhetsfråga, dvs som en
politisk fråga som ska behandlas
med samma dignitet och
strukturer som exempelvis
internationell terrorism och
Adaptive co-management
Adaptive co-management; a combinati
promotes multilevel institutional li
shared responsibility between a dive
actors, combination of knowledge so
as well as learning.
(Olsson et. al. 2004, Berkes et. al
Example: Kristianstad (SE),
Krüger Park (SA), Bali water
temples (Indonesia), Tiszra
(Central Europe),…
Network based governance relies
heavily on social coordination
and control, collective
sanctions and reputations ->
requires repeated
interactions, restricting the
numbers of actors in networks,
often geographical proximity.
Fish and Ebola
virus
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Climat
e
change
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Agroecosyst
Coral
reef
ems
Fish
stock
decrea
Increa
sed
bushme
at
huntin
se
g
Global Environmental Governance
after Kyoto
1. Weak signals
bring about strong
action
2. Decision-making
dependent on type
of change.
3. High investment
in learning after
Think about theand
political
“near-misses”
challenges…
crises
Not just
theory…
”Early response” coordinators
- legal frameworks that allow
actors to act (e.g.
International Health
Regulations)
- unhindered information flows
between a diversity of
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- informal, personal contacts
and trust, and ”low-tech”
interactions.
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