Strategies in a digital world
Transcription
Strategies in a digital world
Strategies in a digital world deel 1 trends en ontwikkelingen /// mediaconsumptie Contents Foreword 3 Trends 5 Threats 15 Opportunities Digital distribution and production 24 Cross-media convergence 27 Experience economy 28 Communities and new media networks 29 Strategies Music – Competing with free 35 Film – Lessons from the music industry 39 Newspapers – Dailies are already communities 41 Television – The battle for rights 45 Summary 49 Conclusion 50 List of interviewees 52 Glossary 53 Bibliography 54 Acknowledgements 55 1 3 Foreword We are delighted to present you with the third ABN AMRO report on media sector developments. This report is meant for everyone who is involved in or interested in the media sector. This report, which follows Media in view 2006 (on the most important trends) and Media in view 2007 (on four future scenarios), describes strategies in the media sector, in a logical follow-up on our previous studies. The future scenarios in our previous report (digital disillusionment, complete fragmentation, chronic chaos and cross-media consolidation) were stimulating points of departure for discussion, discussion that brought up other interesting questions: Do companies have to take multiple scenarios into account? How can companies anticipate developments in a media landscape that is in a state of flux, both in terms of technology and in terms of evolving consumer and advertiser behaviour? What opportunities and threats await both traditional and new media companies? And what is the optimal strategy in the context of farreaching digitalisation? This report takes an in-depth look at these questions, based on interviews with twelve prominent players from the different media sectors. One of these sectors is the music sector. This sector is particularly interesting because it was the first to feel the impact of digitalisation and the first to attempt to absorb the impact by introducing new earnings models. The case of the music sector is typical of the type of discussion that we wish to have with our media sector clients. We understand the complexity of your sector and are eager to assist in the search for new and innovative opportunities. Whether it involves the introduction of a mobile application or an investment in a new printing press, we are here to help you explore the available strategies, to help you develop the right earnings model and to help you make decisions regarding financial viability. In that context, this report presents ideas that can serve as points of departure to stimulate and grow your business. I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who contributed so generously to this report, particularly the interviewees and Hans Arendshorst of ABN AMRO Sector Research, the author of the report. We hope you enjoy reading the report as much as we enjoyed doing the research that went into it and we look forward to lending you our assistance in meeting the challenges your business faces in the digital world. Menno van Leeuwen MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY SECTOR ABN AMRO SECTOR ADVISORY The media sector is in a state of flux. What is changing and what impact will the changes have on media consumption and the market for advertisers? 5 Trends 6 media in view /// trends Retaining control The media sector is in a transition phase. With technology as the driving force, developments are occurring at a steadily increasing pace. Digitalisation, microelectronics and Internet offer a plethora of new possibilities and have triggered a change in media usage. This has loosened the grip of the media on its audience and target groups and, even more importantly, on its content. Changes in media consumption are also causing a change in the distribution of advertising expenditures. Media initiatives New initiatives and experimentation are the order of the day in the media sector. Concepts that do not work are often abandoned shortly after they are introduced. The death of Skoeps.nl, a website for news stories written by the common man, for instance, is just one example of the fate of such initiatives. Sony and Virgin pulled the plug on their online music shops, the Dutch Public Broadcasting Association is decreasing the number of theme channels it broadcasts and Blu-ray won the war against HD DVD. Interesting new initiatives include the sale of music without DRM protection, BBC’s iPlayer for Internet television, FD Media Group’s new business website Z24 and distribution of content by NRC Handelsblad via the iLiad e-reader. If successful, such experiments can result in viable new media forms and earnings models. Figure 1: Interaction between technology, media and the consumer Adoption / Interaction Media offerings Consumer Digital TV User Generated Content Video-On-Demand Web 2.0 Mobile Internet/TV Joost Web 2.0 Sellaband Hyves Last.fm Uitzending gemist.nl En s/ av io ler ur ab Wimax eh n tio e Ad nc op ge er iPhone Technology Digitalisation Internet Devices Source: ABN AMRO /B nv Co Apple TV Gadgets media in view /// trends 7 Figure 1 shows the continuous interaction between technology, media and consumers. Technology creates new possibilities in the media sector and eliminates barriers between different types of media, which in turn results in a wave of new media products. The consumer is able to choose which products he wants and how he wants them. Technology changes media behaviour, but is also dependent on adoption by consumers: unused technology disappears quickly. Three mega trends The change in technology and consumer behaviour is evident in a number of important trends. Two years on, the trends that we described as mega-trends in our report Media in view 2006 still have an enormous impact: Mega-trend 1 Anytime, anyplace, anywhere What they want, where they want it and when they want it, consumers are in full control of the decisions regarding audio and video content in the digital world, completely independent of the media. Time shifting was already possible with a digital video recorder and a steadily increasing number of electronic devices offer place shifting functionality. At present, less than ten percent of Dutch consumers have access to mobile Internet, but the increased prevalence of smartphones with larger displays and flat fee subscriptions costing just 10 euros per month are expected to result in a breakthrough for mobile Internet and mobile television. Mega-trend 2 Increasing interactivity New media now offer far more interactive options than in the past. Internet is an interactive medium per definition. The Internet user determines when and how he surfs websites and Web 2.0 has elevated interaction to a higher plane with a new generation of websites that revolve around participation by site visitors. Consumers are producing their own content and that is a fundamental change. The enormous popularity of sites such as YouTube and social networks such as MySpace and Hyves prove that today’s consumers are eager to exert greater control over the media. User Generated Content (UGC) and blogs are already being integrated into traditional media. The latest branch of the interactive media tree is Twitter.com, a site that allows users to tell the world where they are, what they are doing or how they feel about a particular issue in 140 characters of or less via their PC or mobile phone. Microblogging via Twitter.com has become an incredibly popular pastime. 8 media in view /// trends Mega-trend 3 Convergence, blurring boundaries between media Digitalisation and Internet have blurred the boundaries between devices, media platforms and media sectors. With multifunctional devices such as smartphones, consumers are able to make telephone calls, listen to music, take photographs, watch TV, play games, manage schedules, etc. The boundaries between different media companies that operate on their own dedicated platforms remained in place for decades, but have now been breached by the Internet. Television can now be watched via the Internet, newspapers can be read on the Internet and anyone can establish a radio or television station on the Internet. Media consumption is changing The mega-trends reveal that fundamental changes are occurring in media consumption. The Internet is still in its infancy and the Internet as a new platform has yet to reach its full potential. The Social and Cultural Planning Office (SCPA) performs a study into the amount of time devoted to the different types of media every five years. Although total media consumption has remained constant, consumption of television decreased for the first time in 2005, as Internet consumption increased. Print media consumption amongst Dutch consumers continues its steady decline. 18 ,8 TV Audio Source: www.tijdsbesteding.nl / SCP, 2005 1975 1985 1995 2005 0,9 3,8 4,6 3,8 0,1 0,8 0,5 2,2 1,4 6,1 5,3 10 ,1 12 ,4 ,2 12 10 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 ,5 19 18 ,8 18 ,9 Figure 2: Time spent on media by the average Dutch consumer (hours per week) TV Print Internet/Games Media Total media in view /// trends 9 Discussion on this break in the trend is still possible, however. Stichting Kijkonderzoek (SKO) measured an increase in television viewing from 19 to 22.8 hours per week in the same period, but even SKO has measured a slight decrease in television viewing since 2007. Note that SKO measures the number of hours that televisions are on. Many consumers use television as background noise and multitasking (simultaneously sending sms messages, making telephone calls, etc.) occurs frequently, particularly amongst the young. To conclude that the number of hours actually spent watching television decreases as the amount of time spent on Internet and games increases is only logical. According to SCPA, the decrease in television consumption is highest amongst the young. Digital natives There is a clear difference between the media consumption of digital natives and digital immigrants. Digital natives are young people, with a maximum age of approximately 27, who see the options presented by the Internet as a given because they grew up with the Internet. Digital immigrants are older media users who see the Internet as less self-apparent and are more focused on traditional media in terms of media consumption. Digital natives and digital immigrants show distinct differences in media usage. The trend toward decreased print media consumption is stronger in the digital native group because their primary sources of news are the Internet and television. Because they spend a large amount of time on games and the Internet, these young people are used to handling media in an interactive and individual manner. “Young kids find it completely normal not to pay for music. For them, it’s as self-apparent as the presence of a sugar bowl on the table.” Because they grew up with the Internet and are accustomed to receiving free Erik de Zwart – 21st Century Music American magazine Wired, chief editor Chris Anderson states that ‘freenomics’ software via the Internet, digital natives tend to have an ‘everything is free’ attitude toward Internet products and services. Digital natives no longer buy CDs and DVDs, but download music and films without paying for them via peer-to-peer networks such as Mininova and The Pirate Bay. This attitude has formed a dangerous threat for record companies for years: income from CD sales has fallen dramatically. In the March 2008 edition of the well-known is the future of the Internet. According to Anderson, offering no-charge products and services is the future for companies on the Internet. Companies will generate income via sponsoring, advertising and cross-subsidies with other products. 10 Consumer behaviour The shift in media consumption and the megatrends described above fit into a transition phase in which media are evolving from mass media into more individual media. In a highly individual and digital society, fragmentation of the media offering is a given. Personal preferences are showing an ever-increasing divergence and are resulting in the birth of niche media. The Internet gives hundreds, perhaps thousands, media in view /// trends “The future of media and advertising is not in mass media, but in one-to-one communication.” Marceline Beijer - Kobalt of digital television and radio stations, blogs and musicians opportunities to Mark van der Kallen – Thieme address small, but specific and viable target groups. GrafiMedia Group Discussions regarding the future of the media often contain references to the model that magazines to justify their existence: specialisation in a limited, but clear target group with rapid development from concepts to new titles. However, this more personal media consumption complements the existing traditional media, which does not necessarily have to disappear. In the future, we will still gather in front of the television to watch the Idols finale and live sports events, but their will be fewer moments at masses of viewers watch television, particularly films and television series, as we gain greater control over where and when we absorb content. Advertisers follow the audience Irrespective of the medium, advertisers follow their target group and will adjust in response to changes in the media landscape, however dramatic those changes are. The increasing interaction and fragmentation of media consumption result in new ways to communicate with target groups. Advertising today is primarily based on media reach. The price of a television commercial depends on the number of people who watch the programme before, after or during which the advertising block appears. Pricing for newspaper advertisements is based on the circulation figures for the newspaper in question. When selecting media, advertisers focus on specific target groups. They also attempt to register information on individual consumers using database marketing techniques. Still, advertising in mass media is not the most effective way to reach the target group. It is a shot in the dark, one taken in the hope that enough potential customers are present in the viewing audience. Much of the audience is completely uninterested, however, and displays advertising avoidance behaviour (zapping, using a DVR to avoid the advertisements). It is also difficult for advertisers to accurately measure the impact of their advertisements. When the advertiser uses multiple media, it is difficult to determine whether the new customer saw the television commercial or newspaper advertisement or heard the radio advertisement. media in view /// trends 11 “Advertisers are gradually realising that the existing methods do not always work. What we need now is some good cases with sufficient detail and depth.” Internet, however, does offer clearly measurable results. In principle, Raymond Spanjar - Hyves quite high because Internet is a ‘lean forward’ medium that requires Internet browsing behaviour can be closely monitored. Visitors who click an advertising banner on a website are routed through a site that measures the click-through rate (CTR) for the banner in question. Advertisers are able to see exactly where visitors to their site come from and what the CTR is for the banners they place on different websites. The attention-getting value of advertisements on the Internet is generally a high degree of concentration from the user. Television, on the other hand, is a ‘lean back’ medium, one that requires little concentration. Television advertising impact can be measured based on the electronic programme guide (EPG). EPG-based measurement pairs information on viewing habits with viewer profiles, giving advertisers more refined target group marketing opportunities. There are also benefits for the viewers in this method: advertising that responds to the needs and interests of the individual consumer is less irritating. EPG-based measurement and placement is an example of effective advertising. Measuring is not necessarily knowing Internet advertisers do not always know whom they have in front of them. They know how often a given banner is clicked and they know the site or IP address from which the click originated, but they do not know what consumer clicked the banner. Internet advertising becomes truly interesting for advertisers when they are able to pair the information they already possess with profiles of the prospective customer and when they are able to follow the prospective customer across the different media platforms and speak to the prospective customer on those platforms. Database marketing will focus more sharply on the registration of information from multiple platforms in a single database in the future, so that At “Advertising on the Internet is typically an evolution with quakes and periods of quiet. It’s silent at the moment, but I think this is the silence before the storm. Once the advertisers wake up, it’ll speed up and they’ll be trying to bump each other out of the market.” Marceline Beijer - Kobalt 12 media in view /// trends present, the Internet’s share of the total advertising market in the Netherlands is approximately 7%, half of which is going to search machines such as Google. Clearly, this share will increase in the coming years. The Internet generates a limited share of advertising revenues, particularly when viewed in the context of its high consumption figures. The opposite is true of newspapers and magazines: the consumer spends less than 10% of his time reading newspapers and magazines, but these media account for approximately one third of advertising revenues. This distribution is not viable for the long term. It is a question of time before marketers (usually still digital immigrants) shake off their fear of Internet marketing. In the UK and the US, the Internet’s share of the advertising market is higher than in the Netherlands (see the table below). Table 1: Share of Internet in the advertising market 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 United States 4,6 5,7 7,1 9,1 11,2 United Kingdom 2,6 3,9 7,8 11,4 15,3 Source: IAB, PricewaterhouseCoopers Target group-oriented advertising Advertising will focus less on the masses and more on specific target groups in the future. Naturally, there will still be a generic portion of the advertising market (for general information such as name changes and holidays) that fulfils the need for mass reach. But the moment they need a more product-specific approach, advertisers will turn to the options offered by the Internet and this will create opportunities for media companies. A campaign for a small but interesting target group that delivers demonstrably better results is worth much more money to an advertiser. To make this possible, the media must be able to build a strong relationship with the (niche) target group. Reach in itself will become less important in the future. Advertisers will begin to demand result-based deals. They will use econometric models to accurately assess the return on investment for their campaigns and will reward the media they use for their campaigns based on hard sales figures. Internet will be given a central role in operations in media companies to support the transition from mass to target grouporiented advertising and to prevent the loss of advertising revenue. “If we are ever able to truly demonstrate the link between sales and media usage, budget will be shifted from sales to marketing and more money will be spent on media.” Marceline Beijer - Kobalt media in view /// trends 13 14 Current trends in the media sector result in certain threats for traditional media companies. Convergence is stiffening competition in the media world: turf wars are erupting between companies that used to work in completely separate markets. 15 Threats 16 Change is needed In the digital world, media companies need to adjust to the (new) playing rules of the Internet. Newspapers see players on the Internet such as Nu.nl distributing ‘free’ news and are responding by moving into the terrain of television and placing news videos on their own websites. Web 2.0 has given the general public the means to produce its own content and has loosened the control of the media over target groups and content. With mobile Internet, the mobile telephone is developing into a fourth platform for media consumption, next to the print media, (digital) television and radio and the Internet. This is further fragmenting the media offering, thus decreasing reach per medium. These changes are dramatic and will have a significant impact on the entire media chain and the advertising market. Another important change is digital media price forming. New earnings models apply to the Internet and traditional media are faced with the question of how to generate earnings with digitalised products on the Internet. Core threats for traditional media • Cross-media convergence is increasing competition • Consumption of media is shifting to the Internet and mobile telephone • Consumer preferences are shifting away from print media to video • Shift in the advertising market to niche target groups • Media are losing control over content • Decreasing reach caused by media and target group fragmentation • ’Everything is free’ trend is making it difficult to offer paid content on the Internet • Discrepancy between digital media pricing and analogue media pricing This section describes the most important threats to the three major media sectors: music & film, newspapers and the television. “Downloading is time-consuming and generates less money than working for minimum pay. You’re better off just buying a CD.” Pim Betist - Sellaband Music and film industry: no control over content Remember the 1994 television advertisement run by the Dutch telephone company PTT Nederland? No? Well you can still watch it on YouTube: after a bad audition, a girl sings into a record company exec’s answering machine from a PTT telephone cell and gets the role or record contract she missed out on at the audition. Today, the girl would probably send the exec a message via e-mail with a link to videos of her songs on her MySpace page. In fact, she might not even bother trying to contact the record company exec. With a good voice and the worldwide web, who needs a record company these days? media in view /// threats media in view /// threats 17 “The music industry is one big, slowly settling cloud of dust. Online, structure is gradually rising from the debris.” Barend van Doorn - Accenture CD sales Visitors to Sellaband.com can listen to demos made by bands that are just starting out and decide to invest in promising bands via the site. Bands that garner enough ‘believers’, i.e. that raise 50 thousand dollars or more, can find a producer and start recording their first CD. The site completely eliminates the record company as an intermediary, putting the power in the hands of the consumer. Other parties are also starting to work in this area, one that was previously the exclusive reserve of record companies. In early 2008, Madonna closed an innovative new type of deal with concert organiser Live Nation, the best example of a ‘360-degree contract’ to date. For $120 million, Live Nation obtained a share of Madonna’s CD and DVD sales, merchandising and concert ticket revenues for the next ten years. Madonna’s deal with Live Nation is evidence of a shift in the music industry, away from the sale of CDs. Some bands have decided to offer their music directly to their fans via the Internet, without charging them in some cases. Radiohead started this trend, which was quickly followed by bands such as Nine Inch Nails and Coldplay, which released the first single from their new album ‘Viva La Vida’ free online. The price of digital The telephone company advertisement mentioned earlier in this document is a nice illustration of the phase in which the music industry finds itself. Illegal downloads and a preference amongst digital natives for digital music has resulted in a continuous decrease in CD sales. Although the sale of digital music on the Internet is increasing dramatically, the increase is not compensating for the decrease in CD sales revenues. Paid music downloads are not taking off because of DRM protection, a limited number of online music shops and prices that are too high. The price of digital music is still derived from the price of physical CDs and volumes are too low at most online music shops. It is difficult to explain to consumers why a digital album costs 10 euros, while a physical CD costs just a few euros more, particularly when use of the digital version is limited by DRM protection. The digital music offering is not yet optimally aligned to consumer desires and preferences. The trend toward free give-aways also plays an important role here. Musicians are still able to fall back on live concerts for revenue. The prices charged for tickets have therefore risen to compensate for the decrease in CD sales. Unfortunately for the record companies, they usually do not share in concert revenues. 18 media in view /// threats Box office revenues are increasing The film industry’s position is better than that of the music industry. Producers and distributors receive a portion of box office revenues for their films, roughly half in fact. Worldwide box office revenues are still increasing and sales of DVDs, another important revenue source for the industry, have not decreased, despite illegal downloads. This is quite striking because most films are already available on the Internet hours after the premier. However, the film industry does face the same fate of the music industry. As higher speed Internet connections make it easier for consumers to download films, box office and DVD sales revenues will decrease. Although DVD sales in the Netherlands increased by 5% last year, they showed a first-time decrease of 4% in the US. Table 2: Box office revenues and DVD sales Box office ($ bil.) DVD sales US Worldwide US ($ bil.) Netherlands (mil.) 2003 9,17 20,1 11,6 323 2004 9,22 24,9 15,5 352 2005 8,83 23,1 16,3 329 2006 9,14 25,5 16,6 334 2007 9,63 26,7 16,0 350 Source: MPAA/NVPI Film production and marketing expenses increase each year. Because the number of films that are released is increasing (from 459 (2003) to 590 (2007) in the US), there is a higher risk of film revenues not covering the high costs incurred to make the films. Also, as in any industry, the lack of growth has a negative impact on employee motivation and on the future expectations for the sector. This is particular true of the film world, where the financing risks have traditionally been higher than average: only one out of every ten films released is a financial success. Core threats for the music and film industry • Loss of control over content due to illegal downloads • ‘Everything is free’ trend on the Internet is a threat for earnings models • Decreasing sales of physical media carriers such as CDs and DVDs 19 media in view /// threats “What you do see is that advertising is becoming more dominant, at the cost of subscriptions.” Barend van Doorn - Accenture Newspapers: who reads them these days? Newspapers are suffering from our culture’s hunger for images and video and years of declining circulation. The four free newspapers and NRC Next have won new target groups and have increased circulation, but the paid newspapers again saw their total circulation decrease in 2007. The fact that visits to newspaper websites increased as physical circulation decreased says a great deal. The willingness to pay for general news on the Internet is extremely low to nonexistent, which means that there is no easy way for newspapers to convert to the new Internet medium. The number of new entrants in the Internet-based general news market, including Google News, Nu.nl, Spitsnieuws, the NOS and foreign newspapers is increasing the competition in the market. Internet also offers plenty of space for User Generated Content. These days, everyone has a mobile phone or digital camera, ready to take photographs of disasters and breaking news events long before a professional news photographer arrives at the scene. “There are no really profitable free knowledge and information sites. Zero.” Gert Jan Oelderik - NRC Handelsblad Newspapers on the Internet In an age of cross-media convergence, newspapers are inadequately prepared to respond to changing media consumption. PCM and Telegraaf Media Group have digital versions of their newspapers online, but they have done little to adjust the presentation of content to its new digital environment. Subscribers can page through the entire newspaper online in a fairly small format and can click articles to open a new screen containing the content. In terms of appeal and convenience for the reader, digital newspapers do not achieve optimal scores. In an age in which readers demand cross-media products, Dutch newspapers still have a long way to go when it comes to digital content presentation. Some newspapers are introducing innovative digital initiatives. NRC Handelsblad is making their news content available in the iLiad e-reader, for instance, and the Volkskrant and NRC Handelsblad have integrated video into their websites. FD Media Group, which publishes Het Financiële Dagblad, is making greater advances in the area of convergence, working to add radio into its integrated print, video and Internet offering. 20 De Pers publishes an easy-to-read e-paper on its website, making it stand out in the Dutch freesheet world. There are also examples of international publishing companies that have tweaked their news content for online use, with varying degrees of success. The Times Online (the online version of The Times, a British) and the New York Times, for instance, publish their newspapers online each day in html format. When the New York Times removed the last remaining limitations on the site in late 2007, the number of visitors to the site increased from 7.5 million to 19.4 million per month. The idea behind this strategy is that newspapers must make the transition to the Internet, not just to follow their advertisers and thus secure their share of advertising revenues, but also to meet the demands posed by their (paying) readers. Core threats for newspapers • Declining circulation and shift away from print media, particularly amongst the youth • Increasing number of free news outlets on the Internet • Aantasting advertentie-inkomsten door internet Television: the ultimate fragmentation of audiovisual content Television is under pressure as a mass medium in an age in which personal media consumption is becoming more important. Television has also lost - and will never regain - its monopoly position as a broadcaster of audiovisual content. The Internet and mobile telephone have arisen as new platforms for audiovisual content. Internet video broke through in 2007 and mobile telephones may break through in 2008. Mobile television offerings are expanding: Dutch telecom giant KPN offers television on mobile telephones using DVB-H technology and the Dutch public broadcasting network NOS recently launched its own mobile platform. YouTube paved the way for a wide range of different types of video websites and Internet TV stations and the end is still not in sight. Video consumption on the Internet differs from consumption of traditional television because it has a high ‘snack content’: the length of videos on the Internet is the same as that of a music video clip or sports or news item on traditional television. Television remains the medium of choice for longer broadcasts and films. Still, its is clear that the playing field for television has changed dramatically and permanently. The Nederlandse Publieke Omroep (NPO) responded early to the changes with its catch-up television site Uitzendinggemist.nl. The NPO also started broadcasting its digital theme channels early, back in 2006. Today, Nederland4.nl and the digital television menus of the cable companies offer seventeen theme channels, with themes that range from religion to humour. In July 2008, the NPO announced that it was scrapping five digital channels because of a lack of consumer interest. Commercial networks RTL and SBS also recently began broadcasting programmes on their own catch-up television sites. The entry of industry outsiders is causing further fragmentation in the world of television. Hans Teeuwen, for instance, broadcasts short videos and sketches on HansTeeuwen.tv. Advertisers are also showing an interest in establishing online television networks as a means to establish direct contact with their target groups. ABN AMRO, for instance, launched its own digital television channel, ABNAMRO.tv, this summer. media in view /// threats media in view /// threats 21 “In principle, Endemol is not a distributor or television network, unless being one helps us fulfil our role of content producer, maker and marketer.” Advertising revenues Far-reaching fragmentation in the television Rocco van den Berg - Endemol reach, television networks must either broadcast on multiple platforms or market decreases the reach and ratings of individual television networks. Fragmentation is a threat to the television business model, which depends on advertising revenues to survive. Television commercials are an effective way to reach large numbers of people and they bring in large amounts of cash, but this earnings model is under enormous pressure as a result of current trends in media consumption. To maintain produce programmes for smaller and more specific target groups. Many networks and broadcasters and networks will need to position their profile, programming and brand more sharply in the market. They will also need to acquire longer-term broadcasting rights for multiple platforms, not just for the traditional television platform, but also for the Internet and mobile telephone platforms. The battle for broadcasting rights will be a bloody battle because independent producers will also want to retain the rights to the television programmes that they produce. After all, in a digital world these producers no longer need to rely on television networks alone to reach their audience, but can broadcast directly to their audience and generate advertising revenues via the Internet. In July 2008, for instance, Dutch television producer Endemol established its own television network Misdaad Net with Ziggo to broadcast domestic and foreign crime and detective series via the Internet. In September, Endemol and MTV jointly introduced Comedy Central Family. Core threats for television • Fragmentation of the offering due to digital television and Internet • Advertising revenues for television commercials under pressure • Producers are able to cut out the middleman and broadcast directly to their audience ABN AMRO TV: ABN AMRO introduced its own television channel in June 2008 and broadcasts via Abnamro. tv and via digital television provider Tele2. The channel is the bank’s response to the increasing importance of multi-channel audiovisual communication. ABN AMRO TV allows the bank to share information with clients and prospects in a clear and appealing manner, but also helps the bank distinguish itself from the competition. ABN AMRO TV offers a weekly financial update in news broadcast format and programmes with business, lifestyle and sport themes. The network is not a traditional network, but is completely on demand. Every video item includes interaction options that can be accessed via the red button on the user’s remote control or via the user’s mouse. Viewers can request brochures, make appointments and order tickets for events via ABN AMRO TV. ABN AMRO expects the channel to contribute significant added value and to complement its other, more traditional channels. The bank also expects ABNAMRO.tv to play a role in future brand activation and sales activities. See also http://www.abnamro.tv. 22 media in beeld /// scenario 2: chronische chaos The digital world offers enormous opportunities, also for traditional media companies, provided they are willing to change course and broaden their horizons. 23 Opportunities 24 media in view /// opportunities New rules, new opportunities Digitalisation and the Internet confront traditional media companies with numerous threats. Consumers are changing their usage of media and the ‘real’ Internet players are far better at exploiting the new opportunities and at offering new media than traditional media companies. Business models that proved their worth for decades are suddenly outdated and unusable. Luckily, however, every technological innovation also offers opportunities, for everyone in the market. To take advantage of these opportunities, however, traditional media companies will have to learn to play by the new rules and this will require a turnaround in the way these companies think and operate. The methods used to generate revenues in the digital world may also be completely different from the methods they are accustomed to using. Most of the up and coming new business and earnings models for the digital world are based on a number of simple underlying principles. These principles are handled in this section, with the following opportunities: • Digital distribution and production • Cross-media convergence • Experience economy • Communities and new media networks Digital distribution and production he cost of making and distributing digital media is (far) lower than the cost of making and distributing traditional analogue media. Digital media are far cheaper to produce and can also be produced and distributed more rapidly, provided operations are structured to efficiently exploit new media. In some cases, content is free for publication, as is the case with User Generated Content. The greatest benefit of digitalisation, however, is the far lower cost of content distribution. near future, film distributors will abandon the physical distribution process and “What I notice is that innovations in the industry are not being created by existing parties. All of the truly great initiatives are coming from new entrants.” distribute their products digitally via the Internet or satellite. Digital distribution Barend van Doorn - Accenture In the film world, it is still important to estimate how many copies are required for distribution to cinemas. The production and distribution of physical copies of films on tape costs an average of 1,500 euros per copy, which makes production and distribution an expensive process. Each cinema receives one or more copies of a film on lengths of celluloid tape that the operator has to paste together and role onto a spool before the film can actually be shown. In the also creates new opportunities. Cinemas will be able to programme more flexibly and expand their service offering. Showing live performances and events in cinemas via satellite is the latest trend. Pathé Tuschinski in Amsterdam regularly shows operas that are being performed elsewhere in the world. The initiative is a success and most of the performances are sold out. 25 media in view /// opportunities The same concept can be applied to pop concerts, sports events and theatre performances. Sony Films recently established a new division, Hot Ticket, to focus on showing live events in digital cinemas. Distribution directly to the consumer In the consumer market, digital distribution directly to the consumer generates huge cost benefits. Obviously, designing and maintaining large websites such as iTunes costs money and requires large investments in server and Internet capacity, but these costs are negligible in comparison with the cost of physical distribution, also on a per unit basis. The consumer also benefits from immediate availability, in his own home, of his music, film or newspaper, at a lower cost (no travel or delivery cost) and usually at a lower price. A digital future is on the horizon for newspapers, a future without the heavy burdens of printing, paper and delivery boys. Digital content distribution also works well with another Internet development, this time in the financial world. Banks are using the Internet to cut costs, to offer services such as Internet banking and to offer new paid services to new types of clients. Internet banking is already well established in the Netherlands and other western countries. New payment methods with lower transaction costs such as Paypal, iDeal and mobile telephone payments make micro-payments more profitable and easier to execute. “We’ve clung to long to the idea that as long as it’s easy for everyone to access content via legal channels, we can ignore the fact that a few individuals are copying it illegally.” Michel Mol – Nederlandse Publieke Omroep The Long Tail principle Another evolutionary change is the delivery via the Internet of new products and services based on the Long Tail principle. In 2006, Chris Anderson, chief editor of Wired magazine, mentioned earlier in this document in conjunction with ‘freenomics’, wrote about the Long Tail principle in his now famous book ‘The Long Tail – Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More’. The book explains the principle using what is known in the business world as the Long Tail earnings model, which is a niche market-oriented sales strategy made possible by the rise of the Internet. 26 media in view /// opportunities The Long Tail earnings model is based on the assumption that low production and stock costs on the Internet ensure continuous availability and sale of an unlimited number of products. Although these niche products are not in high demand, they are an important source of revenue when the revenues generated by a large number of these products are totalled. In fact, total revenue from the niche products may be higher than revenues from the big hits and fast movers. Where 20% of the products generated 80% of the turnover in the past, the less popular products now account for 80% of the turnover. This model is the model generally applied by online retail shops, but Long Tail is ideally suited to media as well because maintaining a digital warehouse stocked with digital media costs next to nothing, no logistics co-ordination is required and products are immediately available. In fact, digital distribution and Long Tail effects are causing a complete turnaround in the manner in which media companies operate and are even resulting in the development of completely new media products. For traditional media, this is an opportunity to escape the corset of old formats that limit broadcasting hours and reach. Television programmes no longer have to be immediate hits, but now have the opportunity to build a target group and recoup costs over a longer period of time. Broadcasting networks have greater freedom of choice in terms of content when broadcasting via digital theme channels and the Internet. The number of viewers required to make broadcasts profitable is far lower than it is in the world of traditional television, which also means that more programmes can be broadcast. Television formats that focus on smaller target groups that would be financially uninteresting for normal television networks now have a greater chance of being produced. Figure 3: The Long Tail model Turnover er 20 % Long Tail earnings model Old earnings model 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 100 % Product P Pr rod oduc ductt Source: ABN AMRO The combination of no-cost digital distribution and continuous availability of content makes new products and services possible. The music world has already introduced subscription services on the Internet that offer unlimited music streaming and downloading for a fixed monthly fee. Social networks are also beginning to offer music streaming to their members. MySpace is the first to offer the new service and is also opening its own online music shop. Airlines are also entering the fray, with convenient services that allow passengers to listen to the latest albums via their inflight entertainment menus. The renewal process has just begun, however, and services that are truly interesting to consumers must still be developed. media in view /// opportunities 27 Cross-media convergence Cross-media convergence is the integration of media based on digitalisation and the Internet. It can be based on consolidation, in which a media company takes over another type of media, but it can also be based on forays by one type of media into another type of media’s terrain. The FD Media Group is a good example of both types of consolidation. It is the result of a takeover of BNR Newsradio by Het Financiële Dagblad. The FD Media Group has opted for a cross-media strategy so that it can serve its target group of business people and consumers with an interest in financial affairs on multiple platforms. The crux of the latter type of consolidation is realisation of synergy between the different types of media. In the case of the FD Media Group, the different types are audio (BNR), video (FD.tv), print and Internet, all wrapped into a single media company. The FD Media Group tries to use its journalists in all areas to realise the necessary synergy. Practical considerations are also behind this approach: at FD Media Group, a journalist may write a newspaper article, produce a radio show and an Internet broadcast, all based on attendance at a single press conference. The FD Media Group avoids double work and decreases costs by having its editing staff deliver multiple products based on the work of a single group of journalists. NOS and RTL News have begun to make more frequent use of camera journalists. Camera journalists make their own reports without the need for an extra cameraman. In these initiatives, digitalisation is changing the journalism profession and increasing efficiency at the same time. “You have to offer journalists optimal support so that their output can be used for different media types.” Jacques Kuyf – FD Media Group Cross-media convergence can be a threat, as we saw earlier, but it can also create new opportunities. Media companies can evolve into complete digital media product providers. They can achieve synergies, cut costs and, most importantly, serve new target groups. Newspapers are reaching the youth, a group that normally does not read newspapers, with video on their websites. The Internet allows them to expand their offering of products and services. Given the choice of topics in the video reports on VK.tv, it is evident that the Volkskrant sees the youth as the primary target group for the site. NRC Handelsblad shows how the food and cooking journalist Janneke Vreugdenhil prepares dishes on NRC.tv, adding a new dimension to the columns and articles by this journalist that are published in its newspaper. One of the best examples of a multimedia product does not come from a media company at all, surprisingly enough, but from a retailer. The online outlet Bol.com started publishing Bomvol, a two-monthly digital magazine, in early 2007. The online magazine combines text, video and audio in an attractive and highly interactive manner. The consumer reads, sees and hears the latest news on media releases, artists, electronics, festivals and travel offers as he browses and clicks through the magazine. The maker of the magazine, Readershouse Brand Media, received the 2007 Spin Award for best interactive content. Bomvol is an example of what the newspaper of the future might look like: a flowing interaction of text, audio and visual. 28 media in view /// opportunities Experience economy The popularity of cinema attendance, dance parties, live pop concerts and festivals has not decreased. Despite high ticket prices, many events continue to sell out. Consumers are still interested in live events and willing to pay high prices to attend them. Concert tour revenues have increased dramatically as a result of increasing ticket prices. Average concert ticket prices more than doubled between 1995 and 2005. We will not know until late 2008 “Scarcity is very important. The live segment is so strong because scarcity is everpresent in that segment.” Pim Betist - Sellaband whether Madonna’s ‘Sticky & Sweet’ tour will break the record she made in 2006 with her ‘Confessions Tour’, the most successful tour ever for a female artist. Illegally recorded concert fragments appear constantly on YouTube. Although the quality of these fragments is painfully poor, they do demonstrate that interest in live events is huge. In a digital world, where the Internet is the ‘promised land’ for anyone in search of a freebee, the unique experience that events such as live pop concerts offer is worth a great deal. Table 3: Concert tour revenues for popular pop artists Revenue ($ mil.) 1. Rolling Stones, A Bigger Bang Tour (2005-2007) 558 2. U2, Vertigo Tour (2005-2006) 389 3. Rolling Stones, Voodoo Lounge Tour (1994-1995) 320 4. Madonna, The Confessions Tour (2006) 195 5. Madonna, Re-Invention World Tour (2004) 125 Source: Wikipedia The experience economy is interesting for other industries as well, not just the music industry. Voting for Idols, interactive advertising in games, De Volkskrant’s singles parties: these are all experience concepts that fit well in our new digital world. Sellaband is an excellent example of the new Web 2.0 media, but SellaBration party in the pop temple Paradiso in Amsterdam for site members, the Sellaband ‘believers’, are also a resounding success. Offline experience concepts are being integrated into online strategy and are showing considerable overlaps. Fans place self-made concert videos on MySpace and Facebook, sharing them with the fan base of the band or artist in question within the site. Hyves is planning to integrate the mobile telephone into its concept, so that friends on Hyves can also find each other offline. Networks of users and members are an important component of the digital media phenomenon. In addition to generating extra revenues, experience can also be effectively used to strengthen the relationship with the target group, thus strengthening the network of users and members. “We believe that a social network cannot really shine until it is possible to use it on your mobile telephone.” Raymond Spanjar - Hyves 29 media in view /// opportunities Communities and new media networks Social networks were the first examples of communities on the Internet. They were the first commercially viable interactive networks, but definitely not the last. In principle, any media can build its own community and create a strong network of community members. MySpace, Hyves and Facebook are closely knit networks and well known brands with members from all age groups and social layers. Media companies, on the other hand, will have to work in a far more focused manner to create their own target groups, based on factors such as educational level and specific interests. These media networks will have the Internet as their core. Internet allows far greater interaction with the target group than traditional media. Closely-knit networks are valuable to advertisers. Money spent on advertising for small target groups is money well spent because it generates a higher conversion rate. “The members of social networks are more involved, which is why social networks offer the best opportunities for advertising.” Raymond Spanjar - Hyves The Metcalfe Law, conceived by Robert Metcalfe in 1980, still comes up on discussions on the value of networks today. Originally focused on telecommunication networks, the Metcalfe Law states that the value of a network is equal to the number of members in the network squared. The value of a network increases exponentially as the number of members communicating via that network increases. This concept is still applicable, to a greater or lesser extent, to the rising Internet networks. Whether the network is a social community such as MySpace and Hyves or the network is a media network, the more members a network has and the more intensively that network’s members communicate with each other, the more valuable the network is to advertisers. Information on the network members makes the network even more valuable. The rise of networks and communities in the media is based on this precept. Information on the community members, paired with a strong brand, delivers more for advertisers than the existing vehicles for advertising do. 30 media in view /// opportunities baptised ‘Buy Another Day’ by consumers because of the excessive number “We are a multimedia company, with a large amount of information on the characteristics of the group that we reach each day. We are sitting on top of a treasure trove of information.” of product placements it contained. Facebook recently unleashed a flood Jacques Kuyf – FD Media Group Traditional media companies need to learn to exploit online networks and the value that their brands represent optimally on the Internet. They are heavily reliant on the information gathered in central databases in this context, but also on their ability to follow consumers over all of the platforms that they use, without losing sight of the interests of the different networks and without losing sight of the advertising preferences of the consumer. Consumers are critical of target group marketing and sponsoring efforts. When Sony released the new Bond film ‘Die Another Day’ in late 2002, the film was quickly of member protests and disapproval when it announced plans to introduce Beacon, a new advertising system. Beacon was meant to increase advertising income generated via the Facebook site. When Facebook members bought something via another website, Amazon for instance, the logo of that sight was automatically placed in messages to friends regarding the purchase. After a flood of protests regarding invasion of privacy, Facebook made the new system optional. Use your network In addition to database marketing for advertisers, media networks themselves can also benefit from the information on consumer preferences. They can use the information to organise focused marketing campaigns and refine their selection of products, thus generating extra revenue. Sellaband does this. It uses the preferences of ‘believers’ from more than 100 countries worldwide to find musical talent. Models similar to the Sellaband model are more efficient than the model traditionally used by record companies. Record companies launched ten new artists in the hope that one of them would be a hit. The single hit artist had to generate enough revenue to cover the cost of launching all ten artists, whether the other launches were successful or not. By first asking consumers what their preferences are and only launching artists who have proven their value on Selleband.com, Selleband significantly cuts the cost of marketing and production. media in view /// opportunities 31 Newspapers are another example. They have been marketing special offers for readers for years to (partially) compensate for falling advertising revenues and declining circulation figures. In addition to boxed sets of art house films, De Volkskrant also sells documentaries, Sigmund comic books, novels, non-fiction books, wine and even travel packages. The annual figures for 2007 reveal that PCM generated 2% of its turnover from sales of these items. PCM plans to market such items more aggressively to increase turnover even further. The extra turnover is based on knowledge of consumer preferences and consumer purchasing behaviour. Although this is obviously not the case at De Volkskrant, the information in many newspaper owned databases consists of little more than subscriber names and addresses. “Internet has become our most important news medium.” Pim Betist - Sellaband Another strategy that can be used to strengthen networks is to build a group of websites around the media company’s familiar primary brand. The websites focus on a specific sub-group within the existing target group. NRC Handelsblad, for instance, established NRC Next for younger target group members with a higher education and NRC Boeken for literature lovers. De Volkskrant set up separate websites for its Saturday features Hart en Ziel and Reizen. It also established a job site, Volkskrant Banen, to compensate for the loss of job advertisement revenues in the paper version of the newspaper. NRC Next even has its own split-off: Next Lover, a dating site for the NRC Next target group. What could be trustworthier than Internet dating offered by a trusted and familiar brand? In the examples above, newspapers have succeeded in creating a collection of services and websites around their original brands, sites that can be interesting to advertisers and users as a package or individually. The opportunities presented by the Internet and media digitalisation are slowly but surely being incorporated into new strategies. The strategies that a media company selects and the opportunities that it focuses on depend on the medium. New strategies usually combine a range of different opportunities “FD bases its strategy on target groups and potential reach, which is why we have positioned Internet at the heart of our organisation.” Jacques Kuyf - FD Media Group How are media companies reacting to the (digital) changes and what strategies are they using to stay alive? Are viable answers already visible in the market? Old earnings models sometimes need to be thrown overboard to make space for new business models. That hurts in a sector that is operating in great uncertainty because of its sensitivity to economic developments, a sensitivity exacerbated by heavy dependence on advertising revenues. 33 Strategies 34 media in view /// strategies New business models The simplest adjustment to existing working methods can bring about revolutionary change. Many successful Internet companies have done nothing but dust off an old concept and adjust it for use on the Internet. eBay is little more than a local advertising paper, but on the Internet, in the form of an auction, with some extra options. When traditional media companies design digital strategy, they have to keep two important trends that can hamper their activities in mind: Asynchronous development of the different target groups: digital natives behave differently from digital immigrants. The two groups need to be approached differently: a single strategy will not work. Incompleteness of the digital transition: many potential digital media products cannot be offered optimally yet because the technology is immature (e-readers) or because companies (internal organisation, ICT structure) and consumers (low mobile Internet and mobile television penetration levels) are not yet ready. These barriers slow the transition to a full-fledged digital world, but do give traditional media companies the time to develop and optimise new business models. The accent in the new earnings models will be placed on access to digital content and user-friendly services related to that content rather than on the sale of individual (digital) media products. This radical change in thinking will take time. Digital media and services on the Internet require a more complex and more flexible internal IT system, which in turn requires extra investment. Many media companies are not yet finished updating their IT systems and operations. They have the opportunity to learn from digital cases involving competitors and other media sectors at this point. Developments in the music sector are occurring faster than in other sectors, which makes the music sector a good learning example for media companies operating in other sectors. “Digital music prices are far too high. It’s ridiculous and there’s absolutely no reason for it.” Pim Betist - Sellaband media in view /// strategies 35 Music: competing with free “When they see that a service on the Internet is useful, they are willing to pay for it. Content is more difficult. It has to be unique.” Raymond Spanjar - Hyves The term ‘record company’ is becoming an outdate term as the viability of a core business based on CD sales decreases. The term ‘music company’ may be a better term for the future. Music will always be around and music consumption has never been higher than it is today. But manner in which music is consumed and in which money is made on music is changing dramatically. Record companies need to develop new ways to recoup their investment on music. The sale of digital music per song or per album is not an attractive proposition for consumers. Even the market leader, iTunes, with a good website and sufficient critical mass, is having problems generating a profit on digital music sales. The “Music is a hot marketing instrument today.” Joost Geerts - EMI question is whether digital music is really worth selling as a separate product and whether it will Music Rights reveals that young people are willing “The advantage of music is that many companies want to associate themselves with it.” to pay for access to music, provide the service offers Erik de Zwart – 21st Century Music ultimately replace the CD. Probably not, which is why record companies are looking at alternative earnings models for the future. Research by British convenience and opportunities to discover new music and exchange experiences. 38% of the people who downloaded the free new album Radiohead released on the Internet paid a voluntary contribution. Digital immigrants tend to be more willing to pay for music because they are used to paying for it. Digital natives are less interested in actually possessing music and are more interested in anywhere, anytime access to it. 36 media in view /// strategies Subscriptions and sponsoring Digital natives and immigrants have different preferences, but DRM protection is a barrier for paid music for both groups. Both groups could be served using a subscription model that allows unlimited streaming and downloading without DRM limitations and with reasonable prices. A legal music site that offers a complete, high quality, virus free catalogue, a range of services and convenience, linked to a social network, could be a good alternative for illegal downloading. Before such a site can really take off, it must be available anywhere and anytime, via any device (including smartphones). Marketing also plays an important role in the success of subscription models. iTunes is popular Is the subscription model for music viable? In 1995, 36.4 million CDs were sold in the Netherlands, with a total retail volume of € 520 million. The average Dutchman bought an average of two CDs per year, with a total value of approximately € 30. The average retail price for a CD was € 14 and the price that record companies charged retailers was just over € 7. Based on these figures, the total income earned by record companies in the Netherlands was € 255 million. Approximately 20% of that amount was spent on making and distributing the CDs. This means that a subscription model would have to generate approximately € 204 million in the Dutch market. If music companies demanded 50% of subscription revenue at a subscription price of € 10 per month, the music companies would earn € 60 per subscriber per year. For the subscription model to be viable, there must be 3.4 million subscribers, which is approximately 21% of the population. Fewer subscribers are needed if other revenue sources, such as CD sales, advertising on websites and sponsoring by companies, are taken into account. despite DRM protection and relative high prices. Legal subscription sites still confront users with too many limitations (DRM) and often limit their offering to music streaming. In the Netherlands, Planet Music offers a streaming subscription for PCs and laptops at 6.99 to 9.99 per month. Music can be downloaded for a fee. In the US, Rhapsody goes a step further. Rhapsody charges $ 12.99 for its streaming subscription service, but also allows subscribers to download DRMprotected tracks to an Mp3 player for two dollars more. The downloaded tracks no longer play once the subscription lapses. media in view /// strategies 37 Other revenue sources for the music industry include sponsoring by businesses and advertising revenues from sites that offer music streaming to their visitors or members. In late 2007, Nokia closed an innovative deal with Universal, the world’s largest record company. With the ‘Nokia comes with music’ concept, consumers who purchase a Nokia telephone are able to download music free of charge for a year from Nokia’s online music shop. Nokia pays Universal a fee of approximately 51 per telephone sold. This initiative makes it extremely easy for consumers to download music legally. Apple is considering a similar model for iPods and iPhones. In principle, any company can offer free music to consumers with its products, as one-time downloads (e.g. in the case of new releases) or in the form of limited-time access to a subscription site. Social networks such as MySpace, music websites such as Last.fm and Songza.com and other sites that offer (streaming) music are required to pay fees for the music rights to the music industry. Indirectly, music companies will generate a steadily increasing flow of revenue from the advertising on (music) websites. partially true. The core expertise of record companies “As long as we maintain a bond with the artist and help make the artist better, we represent added value for the artist, we have the content and we can justify our existence.” is developing and marketing new talent and uniting Arjen Witte – EMI A&R Like their earnings models, the functions of traditional record companies will also change. In terms of their traditional role, they are rapidly losing ground to websites such as MySpace and Sellaband. The rise of Live Nation, which has closed 360-degree contracts with big name artists such as Madonna, Jay-Z and U2, appears to be a threat, but that is only artists with song writers and composers, referred to in the industry as the Artist & Repertoire function (A&R). New artists who rise out of MySpace and YouTube often quickly return to obscurity without the proper guidance and support. In fact, Sellaband sees itself as a jumping board for new artists, who then move on into the normal music circuit to grow into maturity. “Record companies are turning into advertising agencies for artists.” Erik de Zwart – 21st Century Music 38 media in view /// strategies Music rights management for performing artists is a discipline in itself. U2 has a contract with Live Nation, but has left responsibility for music rights management and music recording in the hands of Universal. Live Nation does not possess the necessary expertise in these areas, but primarily focuses on organising concerts. Concerts and A&R are completely different areas, areas that are also difficult to combine. Without performing concert-related services for an artist, record companies cannot expect to generate revenues from concerts. However, record companies can perform other services for artists in the context of an all-round management approach. In such cases, the suitability of a 360-degree contract is more self-evident. In the area of A&R, the unit that works to find new talent will become smaller and more efficient based on a more consumeroriented strategy that uses the Internet. Possible strategies for the music industry are placed in a framework consisting of the four opportunities in figure 4. The darker the quadrant, the more important the strategy. Figure 4: Strategies for the music industry per opportunity Experience economy • 360-degree model • premium products by artists Communities • music communities in social networks • subscription websites Convergence • music on the Internet • Internet as a marketing tool Digital distribution • music subscriptions • sponsoring media in view /// strategies 39 Film: lessons from the music industry Up to now, the film industry has been lucky. Unlike the music industry, the film industry has not seen major decreases in DVD sales due to illegal downloads. Even in countries with a high penetration of high-speed broadband Internet (Netherlands, UK), DVD sales and box office figures have remained intact. Almost all of the industry’s top ten box office hits were released in the Internet era. The fact that consumers are not mass downloading films may have to do with the size of the content. Downloading films takes a great deal of time, even in compressed DivX format. However, the Internet has also loosened the film industry’s grip on content and the industry can expect more serious problems in the future, when glass fibre networks and higher Internet speeds become more prevalent. Film producers have learned from the music industry’s plight and are already experimenting pro-actively with new earnings models and new methods to fight piracy. Table 4: Top ten box office films worldwide Film Year Box office ($ mil.) 1. Titanic 1997 1.835 2. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 2003 1.129 3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest 2006 1.060 4. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone 2001 969 5. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End 2007 958 6. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 2007 937 7. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace 1999 922 8. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 2002 922 9. Jurassic Park 1993 920 10. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 2005 892 Source: www.imdb.com 40 media in view /// strategies Window model The window model used by the film industry is eroding. The industry releases films in exclusive windows that incorporate different distribution channels and different geographic regions to maximise profits. Illegal recording in cinemas and illegal downloads are making the windows smaller or causing them to disappear altogether. This trend is clearly evident in the geographic window for cinema releases. Titanic, with worldwide box office receipts of 1.8 billion dollars is still the top box office hit of all time. The film was released worldwide in the period mid-December through early April, first in America and Asia and then in Europe. The last Indiana Jones film, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, premiered on 18 May 2008 in Cannes and was then released worldwide on 21 and 22 May. In the ten-year period between the release of Titanic and the release of Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, the geographic window decreased from four months to just two days. The release sequence in the distribution window is cinema first, then video shops, then DVD and finally television. An increasing number of studios are experimenting with simultaneous cinema, video on demand and DVD releases. Cinemas oppose this new development because they are afraid it will result in box office declines. The advantage for consumers is that they are able to decide how they want to see a new film. The advantage for the distributor is that marketing costs decrease because advertisements only have to be placed for a single release. In addition, the distributor benefits from extra word of mouth advertising and hype on the Internet. For the future, the major American film studios are investing large amounts of money in the US in digital screens that are capable of showing films in 3-D. An increasing number of new films are being released in 2-D and 3-D in the hope that the 3-D versions will give the cinema segment an extra impulse and will help in retaining the box office as a stable source of revenue. Video on demand Video on demand streamed via Internet and digital television will probably lead to the demise of the traditional video rental shop. The film industry has taken greater steps forward in the area of streaming than the music industry to avoid the music industry’s mistakes. Online video shops and cable companies offer a limited assortment of films at this point, but they will be able to offer enormous film libraries in the future. This will make it possible for them to exploit Long Tail effects, which will in turn help them generate extra advertising revenues. Film rental prices can decrease when films are in circulation for a longer period of time and that is interesting for consumers. One example of an online video shop is the Cinemalink.nl. The site, which was established by the Dutch art house distributor Cinemien, allows users to watch and download DRM-protected art house films. 41 media in view /// strategies It is highly probable that a subscription model will become the standard in the film world in the longer-term future. A subscription model for films does not yet exist for the Internet, but there is one for the physical world and it is a success. The Pathé cinema chain launched its Pathé Unlimited concept several years ago. For 18 euros per month, subscribers have unlimited access all Pathé cinemas in the Netherlands. An online subscription model for films would be a logical replacement for the physical DVD and Blu-ray. Unlike music, which many consumers still want to possess, consumers do not need to own a film that they only want to watch once. What role Bluray, the successor to DVD, will play is unclear and depends on the degree to which consumers want to possess a physical copy of popular films. One option would be for the film industry to market Blu-ray disks as premium products, with striking designs and loads of extras. Figure 5: Strategies for the film industry Experience economy • cinema experience enriched with 3-D • Blu-ray as premium product Communities • subscription sites with network functions Convergence • Internet as marketing tool Digital distribution • video on demand • subscription model • decrease window size Newspapers: already communities “There is no fundamental difference between ink on paper and pixels on a display. The core need for knowledge is still present. It’s just being met in a different way.” Newspapers have been competing with free radio and television news Gert Jan Oelderik – NRC Handelsblad Today, newspapers earn their money with a much larger range of different for years, but they now have a new competitor, the Internet. No reason to panic, but it is a reason to sharpen the focus on the traditional strengths of newspapers: brand and professionalism. What is true for all other media in our digital age is also true for newspapers: the product must be adjusted to the options offered by new platforms and to the new desires of the consumer. The old earnings model, which was limited to the sale of space in a physical newspaper for advertising revenues, also needs to be expanded accordingly. products and services. 42 media in view /// strategies Today, the physical newspaper still plays a central role in the operations of newspaper publishers, but NRC Handelsblad and FD Media Group see the delivery of high quality knowledge and information as their core competency, independent of how their subscribers opt to consume their products. Their point of departure is and always will be that the target group is willing to pay for knowledge and information. Both NRC and FD do already operate in two niche markets: the market for people with a higher education and the market for people with a strong interest in financial affairs. For newspapers with a “I believe print will continue to exist, but it will definitely also transform. The question is: what does the consumer want?” Mark van der Kallen – Thieme GrafiMedia Group clear target group, a digital newspaper on the Internet is not a necessity, but is primarily demand driven. Newspaper readers are gradually shifting from physical newspapers to digital newspapers on the Internet. All of the large paid newspapers in the Netherlands offer their subscribers the option of a subscription for the digital version of their paper on the Internet alone. The margins on this product are similar to those earned on the physical newspaper, but the subscription fees are far lower. The transition to completely digital is interesting in the longer term, and also highly probable, because lower subscription fees attract more subscribers and eliminate the problem of steadily increasing paper and distribution costs. The crux for newspapers is to make the move to the Internet as central medium at the right moment in the future. At some point, newspaper circulation will hit a critical low. Revenues are decreasing and cost per unit is becoming relatively high. The physical newspaper will evolve into a premium product and fervent readers will be forced to purchase at a premium price. Table 5: Annual subscription fees for Dutch newspapers in euros* Physical newspaper Digital newspaper NRC Handelsblad 305 75 Het Financieele Dagblad 371 189,50 De Volkskrant 261 69,90 De Telegraaf 238 108 *Price with automatic payment/direct debit authorisation. The only e-paper subscription (NRC) costs 189. Source: ABN AMRO media in view /// strategies “Theoretically, it would be possible to publish NRC Handelsblad without advertisements.” Gert Jan Oelderik - NRC Handelsblad 43 Profiling Relevance is a crucial issue for all newspapers with the rise of the Internet as a competing news medium. ‘General’ newspapers, freesheets and newspapers without a clear profile will run into problems if they are unable to sharply position themselves. Without a clear profile, recognisable target group and need-to-have content, consumers will no longer be willing to pay for content. Without subscribers, newspapers are wholly reliant on advertising revenues and that is not a very comfortable position to be in given “Advertising revenues are sensitive to economic developments. As a media company, you absolutely have to push subscriptions, using any means available.” Barend of Doorn – Accenture the difficulties freesheets have making a profit. Another strategy is complete conversion to digital, with all distribution of the newspaper via the Internet and as an e-paper. Metro is the world’s largest freesheet publisher. 54% of its turnover in 2007, which 453 million, went toward printing and distributing the physical newspaper. Complete conversion into an e-paper, with sufficient e-reader penetration levels, would result in a significant decrease in costs. The conversion to digital is not an easy job, however, because freesheets have to compete with Internet, television and other digital newspapers in a completely digital world. Conversion of paid general newspapers to digital based on advertising revenues is also a difficult task. According to The Economist, a website or e-paper must have at least twenty visitors or twenty readers to generate advertising revenue equivalent to the value that a single paid subscriber represents for a physical newspaper. Focus In the longer term, digitalisation will change newspapers. Digital newspapers are more flexible and they offer more opportunities to communicate with readers and to offer new services. Newspapers will combine text, audio and video into a complete multimedia product. In terms of content, the focus will shift to background and information. In that sense, newspapers will begin to take over the function that magazines currently fulfil. This trend is already visible in the growing number of special features in newspapers and the extra magazines that newspapers publish on lifestyle, finance, culture and entertainment. In the future, subscribers will pick and choose the items and topics they want to form their own ideal newspaper. They will also begin to take part in dialogues with newspaper journalists. User Generated Content is not really a new phenomenon. Newspapers have been publishing letters sent in by their readers for decades, but the extent to which the public participates in media has never been as high as it is today. Still, the influence that amateurs exert over the media must not be exaggerated. The demise of Skoeps. nl is evidence of the fact that professionals will always produce the majority of content. Their objectivity and expertise will always be needed in news and background articles. 44 media in view /// strategies Revenues Newspapers are diversifying their sources of revenue. Higher margins on more specific advertisements are compensating for decreases in generic advertising volume. New archive services are being introduced to exploit the treasure trove of content that newspapers possess. Subscribers and site visitors are able to put together their own dossiers with articles and graphics from newspaper archives and download them as PDF files. Some newspapers charge for this service. Others do not. Another revenue source that is increasing in importance is direct sales of products and services for specific target groups. Newspapers are well advised to prepare for a future in which consumption of most their services occurs via the Internet, because that opens the door to an exciting range of new opportunities. Figure 6: Strategies for newspapers Experience economy • physical newspaper as premium service • experience concepts (debates, etc.) Communities • interactive newspaper sites • sale of special offers to readers Convergence • multimedia newspaper • video on website • Internet as new central platform Digital distribution • multimedia e-paper and newspaper on the Internet • Long Tail services (archive) media in view /// strategies 45 Television: the battle for rights Television’s old business model is familiar and simple: the television broadcasting networks pay television producers to make programmes and the broadcasting networks broadcast the programmes (often just once) and earn money by selling advertising slots to advertisers. In this quasi-tripartite relationship, the networks are at the centre of the value chain. Figure 7: Traditional business model for television content TV producer reach TV network money Advertiser money Source: ABN AMRO But this old model is being rapidly abandoned in favour of a far more complex model in which the networks, producers and advertisers have a real tripartite relationship. The initiative in making a new television format can come from any one of these parties. These parties will also share more equally in decisions regarding financing, content and broadcasting rights. Although public broadcasting networks do have to comply with more stringent regulations in the area of advertiser sponsoring for programmes, advertiser sponsoring will become more frequent in the television world. One of the consequences of the shift from advertising spot generated revenue to sponsoring generated revenue is that advertisers will have greater control over television format content. Obviously, advertiser control will be subject to media legislation. The Dutch government recently ratified the new Media Act, for instance, which goes into effect at the end of 2008. “You have to make sure you’re a brand, not just a network, but most networks are currently rather vague when it comes to what their brands stands for.” Rocco van den Berg - Endemol 46 media in view /// strategies Television broadcasting networks face three important challenges in the new digital age: Retaining reach for their content on the digital television, Internet and mobile telephone platforms; Obtaining all of the rights required to retain reach; Conveying a clear profile for their brand and their network. capacity it requires. Glass fibre other technological advances may change “Television is the first window and the origin for everything else, for the entire product life cycle: from DVDs to events, communication, online, games and merchandising.” that in the future, however, making far-reaching integration of television and Michel Mol - the Internet possible. Co-operation with Internet service providers, similar to Nederlandse Publieke Omroep The BBC is an example of a strong brand with a clear Internet strategy. The BBC launched its iPlayer website, the British version of the Dutch catchup television website Uitzendinggemist.nl, in 2007. The BBC’s iPlayer site generates so much Internet traffic that conflicts regarding the costs of the extra traffic arose between the BBC and Internet service providers. These conflicts reveal one of the inherent weaknesses of the Internet, i.e. it is not as suitable as television as a mass medium because of the bandwidth and server the co-operation established by Internet service providers and Nederlandse Publieke Omroep, is the best bet for television broadcasting networks at this point. The broadcasting networks have already established successful Internetbased initiatives to strengthen their relationships with viewers. One example is the Internet forum for the Dutch soap series Goede Tijden, Slechte Tijden on the RTL 4 television network’s website. Viewers hold lively discussions of the story lines and characters in the soap series on this forum before and after every episode. Figure 8: New business model for television Reach / Result deals TV network de a ls Advertiser t/ en fo rm at s/ nt Co Re s ul t Cash Ca ash h flow flows ws M ul tim ed ia co nc ts ep ts / TV gh Ri Source: ABN AMRO TV p producer cer media in view /// strategies 47 Television producers must create more all-round media concepts for advertisers. The television format remains the most important component, but becomes the driver of a cross-media concept that integrates the Internet, radio, print media and the mobile telephone. Rights have become more important to producers. They generate more revenues from international sales of television formats, Long Tail video on demand and merchandising. Paid and advertiser-sponsored video on demand growth is expected to be enormous. The focus will be placed on possession of longterm broadcast rights for all platforms. “Everything is possible: any mixture between the extremes of broadcasting without any rights whatsoever to production with all rights. All negotiations cover price, rights and international potential.” Rocco van den Berg - Endemol Co-operation The television networks have entered the domain of television producers with their in-house television productions. At the same time, producers are experimenting with independent content broadcasting. The chance of networks and producers becoming full-fledged competitors is low however. Establishing a television network with a new brand name is a difficult task, as the failure of the Talpa network demonstrates. Theme channels are an option for independent producers, but their core business will remain the development of formats because that is what they are good at. Television networks, producers and advertisers will continue to play the game delineated by the fight for financing and content rights together because co-operation delivers more benefits than competition does. The networks can spread the financial risks based on clear agreements and result deals with television producers and advertisers. Via sponsoring, new types of advertising on the Internet and Long Tail video on demand, they will be able to generate alternative revenues to compensate for the decrease in television commercial revenues. Independent television producers also benefit from a clear distribution of rights and the ability to take strong formats to the international market, while leaving the Dutch market to the television networks. Figure 9: Strategies for television per opportunity Experience economy • merchandising • live and reality concepts Communities • brand profiling • websites with familiar programmes Convergence • co-operation • theme channels Digital distribution • digital television • video on demand • mobile television 48 media in beeld /// samenvatting media in beeld /// samenvatting 49 Summary Media companies are currently in a state of major change, in a new world in which new business models and digital media products play a major role. Digitalisation, the Internet and new consumer preferences are threats for traditional media companies. They are being confronted with greater competition and are losing their grip on their target groups and content. In addition, the advertising market, the primary revenue source for many media companies, is also shifting. Advertisers today are focusing less on reach and more on specific target groups and measurable sales results. Luckily, however, digitalisation also opens up new opportunities. Production of digital media is inexpensive and the cost of digital distribution is negligible. Distribution via Internet also generates opportunities to benefit from Long Tail effects: high and long-term availability of large numbers of niche products and the ability to generate revenue on niche products for longer periods of time. Prices for digital media products can be decreased, thus making the products more appealing to consumers. Consumers have the opportunity to use new products and services such as music and film subscriptions, e-reader and Internet-based digital newspapers and on-demand television and video services. Media are and always will be dependent on viable target groups, but these target groups are smaller and more specific in the digital world. Fragmentation of the media offering and convergence are a threat on one hand, but also generate new opportunities to consolidate and strengthen relationships with target groups. New media networks offer their content on all available platforms: print, television, Internet and mobile telephone. The earnings model applied by these networks is also fragmented and includes multiple revenue sources. Access to digital content and services on the Internet is the cornerstone of future earnings models in the media. The sale of physical products to consumers will decrease in importance as modern digital consumers shift away from the focus on possession that characterised the physical media carrier era in favour of availability, experience, convenience and service. The new focus can be online or offline, with the enormous interest in live events and concerts as one example of the latter focus. The success of many new business models is dependent on development of sufficient critical mass and acceptance on the part of consumers. But rest assured, critical mass will be achieved and consumers will embrace the new models. We are on the brink of an exciting new age, the digital media age. 50 media in beeld /// nawoord Conclusion Journalists and writers never tire of writing about the media sector. The fact that digitalisation is driving dramatic changes is evident, but the question of what strategy companies should employ in response to these changes is a difficult one. And that is why ABN AMRO published an extensive assortment of strategies per sector, with the trends, threats and opportunities that lie at the base of each of the strategies, in Media in view 2008. A number of conclusions can be made based on these strategies: First of all, we need to be conscious of the fact that we are on the brink of a radical change in the media landscape: access to digital content on the Internet and user-friendly services related to that content are the cornerstones of any successful earnings model. But awareness alone is not enough. There are two important barriers that slow the change process. The first of these barriers is the existence of two asynchronous target groups: the digital immigrants and the digital natives. Two different strategies are required to serve both target groups. For digital natives, in particular,the focus lies more on availability than on possession. The second barrier is the immaturity of the digital landscape, especially in the areas of technology, organisation and IT support. This second barrier may actually be good news for media companies that are lagging behind in their response to the transition. These companies have an opportunity to get up to speed, but they must do it quickly. Do not wait to learn from digital cases or to invest in new media initiatives, but do it today. media in beeld /// nawoord 51 Finally, media companies need to adjust their strategies to respond to the impending rise of a new digital world. The four opportunities that are described in this report, i.e. digital distribution & production, cross-media convergence, experience economy and communities & new media networks, are the drivers for success or failure in the digital world. How should companies approach these drivers? Is your company profiting enough from the opportunities that change is creating? Is your response adequate to keep the competition at bay? New organisations are in a position to score points against traditional media companies in the digital world. The digital world and the opportunities and threats it presents are excellent points for discussion between executives and bankers in the media sector and this is precisely why we study the media sector and meet with media companies to exchange ideas and experiences. We know that moving forward is particularly important in a poorly performing economy and advertising market. Recognition of promising innovations and new earnings models is absolutely crucial. ABN AMRO participates in a range of different initiatives that highlight innovative companies and concepts in the area of new media, including the ABN AMRO New Media Award and the Accenture Innovation Award. ABN AMRO also organises matchmaking events to bring the major media companies into contact with innovative young entrepreneurs. At ABN AMRO, we appreciate theory, but we also know that what happens in practice is what really counts in the end. Menno van Leeuwen Sector Banker Media and Technology ABN AMRO Sector Advisory 52 media in beeld /// namenlijst geïnterviewden List of interviewees Company Name Position Accenture Barend van Doorn Executive Partner EMI Music Publishing Arjen Witte Managing Director Benelux EMI Music Joost Geerts Digital Marketing Manager Endemol Rocco van den Berg Head of Business Development & Licensing FD Media Group Jacques Kuyf CEO Hyves Raymond Spanjar Chief Hyving Officer Kobalt Marceline Beijer CEO Nederlandse Publieke Omroep Michel Mol Director of Innovation and NRC Handelsblad Gert Jan Oelderik Publisher Sellaband Pim Betist Creative Director/Founder Thieme GRAFIMEDIA Group Mark van der Kallen General Director 21st Century Music Erik de Zwart Director/Owner New Media media in beeld /// begrippenlijst 53 Begrippenlijst Cross-media Making use of different media (TV, Internet, mobile) with cross-fertilisation between the different media. DivX S Standard compressed format for the storage of digital video files. DRM Digital Rights Management, a system for the individual management of authors’ digital rights. DVB Digital Video Broadcasting, an internationally recognised open standard for digital TV and radio that was developed in Europe. DVB-H Digital Video Broadcasting - Handhelds, the mobile variant of DVB, which is suitable for mobile airwave appliances. DVR Digital Video Recorder, hard disk recorder for the storage of digital video and audio. Hyves A Dutch online social community. Similar foreign sites include MySpace and Facebook. IPTV Internet Protocol Television, a technology that transmits TV or video signals via the Internet Protocol. iTunes A digital media player application introduced by Apple for playing digital music and films. In addition, the software manages the content on the iPod and the iPhone. Long Tail Literally the long tail in a statistical probability distribution; the term is used to indicate that the sum of niche markets can be greater than a high-volume market with popular products. The term was coined by Chris Anderson. Set-top box A decoder that converts digital signals for the TV set to enable (interactive) digital TV and online services. User interface Parts of hardware and software that jointly enable interaction between the user and the appliance (TV and PC). WiMAX Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access, a new standard based on the standard 802.16 that serves to provide wireless broadband access. YouTube Website on which films, video clips, movie trailers, adverts for new gadgets etc. can be shared. Google took over YouTube at the end of 2006. 54 media in beeld /// literatuurlijst Bibliography Reports Concentratie en pluriformiteit van de Nederlandse Media, Commissariaat voor de Media, 2006 De toekomst van reclame in een digitaal televisielandschap, TNO, June 2006 Imagining the future of newspapers, Newspaper Association of America Media predictions – TMT Trends 2008, Deloitte & Touche, 2008 Music experience and behaviour in young people, British Music Rights, 2008 Paid content strategies for newspapers, City University, July 2008 Televisierapport 2007 – Mini, midi, mega, SPOT, 2008 The challenge of change, Accenture Global Content Study, 2008 The end of television as we know it, IBM, 2006 Articles After the Radiohead revolution, Portfolio.com, October 2007 Beyond ownership, Financial Times, March 2008 Copyright is achterhaald fenomeen, Het Financiële Dagblad, 2007 Free - Why $0.00 is the future of business, Wired, March 2008 Gratis levert dit keer wel winst op, Het Financiële Dagblad, 2007 Hollywood and the Internet, The Economist, February 2008 How much is music worth?, Newsweek, October 2007 Kranten halen meer uit de consument, Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst, 2007 Live Nation legt top-acts vast, NRC Handelsblad, April 2008 Met een audiovisueel rugzakje de wereld in, NRC Handelsblad, June 2008 Movie exec sees new era in 3-D films, Portfolio.com, March 2008 Nooit meer zeulen met de filmblikken, NRC Handelsblad, March 2008 Online music fees pose digital dilemma, BBC September 2007 Op weg naar het einde van boek en krant op papier, De Volkskrant, February 2008 Papieren krant wordt niet weggevaagd door Internet, De Volkskrant, March 2008 PCM zoekt omzet in reizen, boeken en cd’s, Het Financiële Dagblad, April 2008 Ruilen zonder huilen, Het Financiële Dagblad, 2007 Strategie dagbladen – De krant in de verdrukking, Het Financiële Dagblad, November 2007 The Long Tail, Wired, 2004 Who killed the newspaper?, The Economist, August 2007 Websites www.emerce.nl www.mediaonderzoek.nl www.tijdsbesteding.nl media in beeld /// colofon 55 Acknowledgements This report was written on behalf of the Sector Advisory Department of ABN AMRO Bank N.V. Author Hans Arendshorst, Policy & Portfolio Sector Research ABN AMRO Interviews Hans Arendshorst, Sector Analyst Menno van Leeuwen, Sector Banker Media and Technology With the assistance of Wendy Klein, Hèleni Kernkamp, Conrad Roelen, Floris van Oranje, Olivier den Tex, Pieter Joost van Dam, Charlotte Koppen de Neve and Erik Jan Gelink Distribution ABN AMRO Sector Advisory, tel. 020 - 629 37 76. Contact persons: Menno van Leeuwen ([email protected]) and Wendy Klein ([email protected]). You can also find this publication at www.abnamro.nl/mediateam in the ‘publications’ section. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are based on information that was carefully gathered and processed by ABN AMRO Sector Research. Neither ABN AMRO nor any officers of the bank can be held liable for any inaccuracies in this publication. © ABN AMRO, September 2008 This publication is intended for personal use only. Copying and/or distribution of this publication is not permitted without the express written permission ABN AMRO Bank. media in beeld ///