L`ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS: ENROLLMENT

L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS:
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
September 23, 2014
Frederick R. Ignatovich, Ph.D.
STANFRED Consultants
IT IS NOT GOOD FOR A MAN TO BE
WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE, AND HE
WHO MAKES HASTE WITH HIS FEET
MISSES HIS WAY.
(Proverbs 19:2)
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This Presentation Will
Focus on Two Themes
The Process Used to Do the
Projections
The Projections for the District
THEME I: THE PROCESS
DATA SOURCES
 BIRTHS
 ENROLLMENT HISTORY
CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION
 BUILDING PERMITS
 CENSUS PROFILE
 REGIONAL ENROLLMENT DATA
PROGRAM AND HISTORICAL
INFORMATION
 DISTRICT PERSONNEL
DATA SOURCES - BIRTHS
ANNUALLY BIRTHS ARE REPORTED BY
THE RESIDENCE OF THE MOTHER FOR
EACH COUNTY IN THE UNITED STATES
Sources: Michigan Department of Community Health and The National Center
for Health Statistics
DATA SOURCES – ENROLLMENT HISTORY
EACH FALL ENROLLMENTS ARE
COUNTED, AUDITED, AND REPORTED TO
THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
EDUCATION.
Source: Michigan Department of Education
PROJECTING KINDERGARTEN
•  WE DETERMINE THE PERCENTAGE OF
BIRTHS THAT ENROLL IN KINDERGARTEN
FIVE YEARS LATER
•  THIS IS DONE BY COMPARING THE
RESIDENT BIRTH DATA WITH ACTUAL
ENROLLMENT DATA
•  THIS IS DONE FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF
YEARS
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Birth to Kindergarten Ratios
L’Anse Creuse Public Schools
SCHOOL YEAR
* ATYPICAL RATIO (TWELVE YEAR 02-03 TO 13-14 AVERAGE = 7.80)
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B-K RATIO
02-03
8.28
03-04
8.17
04-05
8.09
05-06
7.47
06-07
8.36
07-08
7.63
08-09
7.34
09-10
8.24
10-11
7.91
11-12
7.52
12-13
7.69
13-14
6.90*
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PROJECTING GRADES
•  WE DETERMINE WHAT CHANGES OCCUR TO A
COHORT OF STUDENTS AS THEY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE GRADES.
•  THIS IS DONE BY COMPARING THE
ENROLLMENT DATA FOR A GRADE WITH THE
ENROLLMENT IN THE NEXT HIGHER GRADE
THE NEXT YEAR.
•  THIS IS DONE FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF
YEARS FOR EACH GRADE LEVEL.
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L’Anse Creuse Public Schools
Kindergarten to 1st Grade
Cohort Ratios
SCHOOL YEAR
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K–1
03-04
98.76
04-05
101.98
05-06
100.87
06-07
102.07
07-08
98.00
08-09
103.38
09-10
98.69
10-11
99.64
11-12
95.96
12-13
94.52
13-14
98.81
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ALTERNATIVE DISTRICT PROJECTIONS
•  WE PRODUCE THREE SETS OF PROJECTIONS
WITH EACH SET ASSUMING DIFFERENT
DEGREES OF UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE
OCCURRANCES AFFECTING ENROLLMENTS:
LOW VOLITILITY, MEDIUM VOLITILITY, AND
HIGH VOLITILITY
•  EACH PROJECTION SET CONSISTS OF THREE
ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS: A LOW, MOST
LIKELY, AND HIGH PROJECTION
•  A TREND ANALYSIS OF THE LAST THREE
YEARS IS CONDUCTED TO DETERMINE WHICH
SET OF PROJECTIONS AND THE ALTERNATIVE
PROJECTION WITHIN THE SET THAT HAS BEEN
THE MOST ACCURATE
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CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – BUILDING
PERMITS
MONTHLY THE NUMBER OF APPROVED
SINGLE FAMILY HOME BUILDING
PERMITS IS REPORTED FOR EACH CIVIL
SUBDIVISION (E.G. CITY, VILLAGE, AND
TOWNSHIP) IN MACOMB COUNTY.
Source: SEMCOG
CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – HOUSING
DEVELOPMENT AND TURNOVER
•  Constituent Civil Subdivisions Generally Highly
Developed – Development Potential for New
Homes Decreasing Within L’Anse Creuse Public
Schools (Potential in Northern Part of District
[Chesterfield and Macomb Townships] – Very
limited development in Southern Part of District
[Clinton and Harrison Townships])
•  Quick Turnover of Housing Placed on the Market
Expected with Low Foreclosure and Low Listing
Rates
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CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – CENSUS
PROFILE
THE 2000 CENSUS AND 2010 CENSUS
PROVIDES DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
FOR THE STATE OF MICHIGAN AND THE
MAJOR CIVIL SUBDIVISIONS OF A
SCHOOL DISTRICT.
Sources: 2000 CENSUS and 2010 CENSUS (SEMCOG AND THE CENSUS
BUREAU )
CENSUS COMPARISON
2000 VS 2010
MICHIGAN AND L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
MI
2000
6.8% vs.
•  % UNDER 5 YRS OF AGE
MI
2010
6.0%
LCPS
2000
7.2% vs.
LCPS
2010
6.0%
•  # UNDER 5 YRS OF AGE
672005 vs. 596286
5,660 vs. 3,842
•  65 YRS OF AGE OR MORE
12.3% vs. 13.8%
10.8% vs. 12.5%
•  OWNER OCCUPIED UNITS* 66.0% vs. 61.6%
73.6% vs. 72.0%
•  VACANT HOUSING UNITS* 10.6% vs. 14.6%
•  RENTER OCCUPIED*
23.4% vs. 23.8%
4.5% vs.
7.0%
21.9% vs. 21.0%
* The combined townships of Chesterfield, Clinton, Harrison, and Macomb
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CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – REGIONAL
ENROLLMENT DATA
ENROLLMENTS IN MACOMB ISD
PUBLIC AND NONPUBLIC SCHOOLS
OVER MULTIPLE YEARS HELP
IDENTIFY TRENDS AND PROVIDES
INSIGHTS REGARDING FACTORS
AFFECTING ENROLLMENTS IN A
LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT.
Sources: MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AND CEPI –
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY
Regional Enrollment Data
L’Anse Creuse Public Schools
• 
The Number of Macomb ISD K-12 Public School Districts Was
Constant From The Fall 2002 To The Fall 2013: N= 21
• 
The Number of Non-Public Schools In Macomb ISD Decreased From
51 In The Fall 2002 To 38 In The Fall 2012
• 
The Number of Public School Academies (PSA or Public Charter
Schools) In Macomb ISD Increased From 6 In The Fall 2002 To 12 In
The Fall 2013
• 
K-12 Enrollment in Macomb ISD K-12 Public School Districts
Decreased Slightly From 130,523 In The Fall of 2002 to 127,054 In
The Fall of 2013 (a -3,469 loss or -2.7% over eleven years)
• 
Enrollment in Macomb ISD Non-Public Schools Decreased a Large
Amount From 12,287 In The Fall of 2002 to 8,438 In The Fall of 2012
(a -3,849 loss or -31.3% over ten years)
• 
K-12 Enrollment in Macomb ISD Public School Academies (PSA or
Public Charter Schools) Increased dramatically From 2,162 In The
Fall of 2002 to 5,321 In The Fall of 2013 (a +3,159 gain or +146.1%
over eleven years)
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HISTORICAL AND PROGRAM INFORMATION
OVER A NUMBER OF YEARS CONVERSATIONS
WERE CONDUCTED TO IDENTIFY HISTORICAL
EVENTS AND PROGRAM CHANGES THAT
AFFECT THE PROGRESSION OF STUDENTS
THROUGH THE GRADES AND ARRIVAL OR
DEPARTURE OF STUDENTS IN THE DISTRICT
(e.g. non-public schools, charter schools, schools
of choice, migrant students, local economy, local
housing, and changes in programs and policies).
Historical and Program Information
L’anse Creuse Public Schools – NonResidents and Charter Enrollments
•  Increased Participation of L’Anse Creuse Public School
Residents in Programs of Neighboring Districts (L’Anse
Creuse Residents Attending Other K-12 Public School
Districts): Fall 2002 – 238.93, Fall 2005 – 352.94,
Fall 2008 – 414.92, Fall 2011 – 499.07, Fall 2013 – 576.6
•  Increased Enrollment of Non-Resident Students Attending
L’Anse Creuse Public Schools: Fall 2002 – 218.99,
Fall 2005 – 354.8, Fall 2008 – 911.92, Fall 2011 – 1512.56,
Fall 2013 – 1553.29
•  Increased Participation by L’Anse Creuse Public School
Residents Attending Charter Schools:
Fall 2002 – 40, Fall 2005 – 123, Fall 2008 – 305,
Fall 2011 – 227, Fall 2013 – 246 {Merritt Academy 67, Prevail
Academy 61, Mt. Clemens Montessori Academy 33, Michigan
Virtual 23, Macomb Academy 20, Others 42})
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Historical and Program Information
L’Anse Creuse Public Schools – Other Factors
•  Increased Intake of School of Choice (SOC) Students by
Surrounding School Districts is likely due to increased and
aggressive marketing programs. This is expected to continue.
•  Currently no evidence of new charter school openings or
significant expansion of existing charter schools. This is
expected to continue,
•  Opening of new Catholic H.S. in New Haven has not affected
the district and not expected to effect the district. Other NonPublic schools show no signs of expansion.
•  District not affected by Migrant Students.
•  District experiencing increased diversity of residents in
southern part of the district. This is expected to continue.
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THEME II: THE PROJECTIONS
ENROLLMENTS AND PROJECTIONS FOR
L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
•  L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC K-12 TOTAL FTE (NO ALT ED)*
  L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC K-5 TOTAL FTE (NO ALT ED)*
  L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC 6-8 TOTAL FTE (NO ALT ED)*
  L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC 9-12 TOTAL FTE (NO ALT ED)*
  L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SENIOR CLASS TOTAL FTE (NO
ALT ED)*
* TOTAL FTE CONSISTS OF GENERAL EDUCATION FTE AND
SPECIAL EDUCATION FTE
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L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
K-12 TOTAL FTE OUTLOOK
• 
K-12 TOTAL FTE enrollment increased moderately from 2002-03 to
2009-10 from 10,948 to 11,537 (an increase of +589 FTE students or
+5.4% over seven years)
• 
A substantial decrease of -793 FTE students or -6.9% occurred from
2009-10 to 2013-14 (decreasing to 10,744 over four years)
• 
The High projection indicates a modest decrease (a -216 FTE
student loss or -2.0% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from
10,744 to 10,528)
• 
The Most Likely projection indicates a substantial decrease (a -809
FTE student loss or -7.5% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19
(from 10,744 to 9,935)
• 
The Low projection indicates a large decline (a -1,356 FTE student
loss or -12.6% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from
10,744 to 9,388)
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L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
K-5 TOTAL FTE OUTLOOK
• 
K-5 TOTAL FTE enrollments increased slightly from 2002-03 to
2009-10 (a +81 student gain +1.6% over seven years) from 4,932 to
5,013)
• 
K-5 TOTAL FTE enrollments decreased very substantially from
2009-10 to 2013-14 (a -440 student loss or -8.8% over four years)
from 5,013 to 4,573)
• 
The High projection indicates a moderate decrease (a -237 student
loss or -5.2% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 4,573
to 4,336)
• 
The Most Likely projection indicates a modest loss (-485 students or
-10.6% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 4,573 to
4,088)
• 
The Low projection indicates a substantial loss (-694 student loss or
-15.2 over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 4,573 to 3,879)
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L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
6-8 TOTAL FTE OUTLOOK
• 
6-8 TOTAL FTE enrollments generally decreased modestly (first
decreasing then increasing and then decreasing) from 2002-03 to
2013-14 (a modest -24 student loss or -0.9% over eleven years) from
2,734 to 2,710
• 
The High projection indicates a moderate decrease (a -131 student
loss or -4.8% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 2,710 to
2,579)
• 
The Most Likely projection indicates a substantial decrease (a -239
students loss or -8.8% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19
(from 2,710 to 2,471)
• 
The Low projection indicates a large decrease (a -347 student loss or
-12.8% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 2,710 to
2,363)
• 
The ten year long range projections from 2013-14 to 2023-24
indicate: for the High a -264 student loss or -9.7%, for the Most Likely
a -506 student loss or -18.7%, and for the Low a -716 student loss or
-26.4%.
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L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
9-12 TOTAL FTE OUTLOOK
• 
9-12 TOTAL FTE enrollments generally increased from 2002-03 to
2010-11 (a large +465 student gain or +14.2% over eight years) from
3,282 to 3,747
• 
9-12 TOTAL FTE enrollments generally decreased from 2010-11 to
2013-14 (a large -286 student loss or -7.6% over three years) from 3,747
to 3,461
• 
The High projection indicates a moderate increase (a +152 student gain
or +4.4% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 3,461 to 3,613)
• 
The Most Likely projection indicates a modest loss (-85 students loss or
-2.5% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 3,461 to 3,376)
• 
The Low projection indicates a very substantial loss (-315 student loss
or -9.1% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19 (from 3,461 to 3,146)
• 
The ten year long range projections from 2013-14 to 2023-24 indicate:
for the High a -114 student loss or -3.3%, for the Most Likely a -503
student loss or -14.5%, and for the Low a -855 student loss or -24.7%
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L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
SENIOR CLASS TOTAL FTE OUTLOOK
• 
Senior Class TOTAL FTE enrollments cycled up then down
twice from 2002-03 to 2013-14 starting at 749 and finishing at
800 (a substantial +51 student gain or +6.8% over eleven years).
• 
The High projection indicates a very substantial increase (a +88
student gain or +11.0% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19
(from 800 to 888)
• 
The Most Likely projection indicates a modest change (a +16
student gain or +2.0% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19
(from 800 to 816)
• 
The Low projection indicates a substantial decrease ( a -53
student loss or -6.6% over five years) from 2013-14 to 2018-19
(from 800 to 747)
• 
The ten year long range projections from 2013-14 to 2023-24
indicate: for the High a +9 student gain or +1.1%, for the Most
Likely a -89 student loss or -11.1%, and for the Low a -179
student loss or -22.4%
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SUMMARY OF TOTAL FTE COUNT PROJECTIONS
L’ANSE CREUSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS
FROM 2013-14 TO 2018-19
GRADE LEVEL
L’ANSE
CREUSE
SCHOOLS
LOW
L’ANSE
CREUSE
SCHOOLS
MOST LIKELY
L’ANSE
CREUSE
SCHOOLS
HIGH
K-12
-12.6%
-7.5%
-2.0%
K-5
-15.2%
-10.6%
-5.2%
6-8
-12.8%
-8.8%
-4.8%
9-12
-9.1%
-2.5%
+4.4%
SENIOR CLASS
-6.6%
+ 2.0%
+11.0%
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So what should we expect?
For Facilities Planning Purposes:
We suggest expecting future enrollments to
fall between the Most Likely and High
projections much closer to the Most Likely –three times the Most Likely plus the High
divided by four.
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Listen To Advice And Accept
Instruction, That You May Gain
Wisdom For The Future.
(Proverbs 19:20)
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