Bioenergie und Landnutzungskonflikte - ZNF

Bioenergie und Landnutzungskonflikte Jürgen Scheffran
Forschungsgruppe Klimawandel und Sicherheit
Institut für Geographie, CliSAP/CEN, Universität Hamburg
Biologische Grundlagen der Friedensforschung
3. Juni 2015
Historische Entwicklung
erneuerbarer Energiequellen
IPCC (2011) SRREN_SPM
Anteile von Energiequellen an der
globalen Primärenergienutzung in 2008
World total primary energy supply: 492 ExaJoule
Modern biomass contributes 38% of total biomass share
IPCC (2011) SRREN_SPM
Globale Anteile der Biomassequellen für
Energieversorgung
Source: IPCC-SRREN (2011)
IPCC-SRREN (2011): conclusions on bioenergy
• Bioenergy technologies can generate electricity, heat and fuels from a range of ‘feedstocks’.
• Some bioenergy systems, including ones that involve converting land into agricultural biomass and energy crops, can generate more greenhouse gas emissions than they save.
• But others, such as advanced conversion systems, which for example convert woody wastes into liquid fuels, can deliver 80 percent to 90 percent emission reductions compared to fossil fuels.
• Bioenergy, mainly for traditional cooking and heating in developing countries, currently represents over 10 percent of global energy supply or ca. 50 Exajoules per year.
• While the share of bioenergy in the overall renewables mix is likely to decline over the coming decades, it could supply 100 to 300 Exajoules of energy by 2050...
IPCC-SRREN press release
Energetische Nutzung von biomassE
Biomass
Burn
produce electricity
Mature
Source: Steve Long
Thermochemical
conversion to
syngas products
Semi-mature
(Capital intensive
inefficient)
Biochemical
conversion to
ethanol and
other fuels
In development
Motivation für biotreibstoffe
 Energy security: Growing oil prices and dependence on energy imports from the Middle East increase demand for renewable energy
 Home‐grown domestic energy sources offer development perspectives to structurally weak rural areas and lead to structural changes in land‐use and agriculture  Economic benefits: significant number of jobs, increase of GDP and farmer's income
 Sustainable development in Third World: growing energy demand in developing countries; high productivity of energy crops in tropical and subtropical regions, employment and income in rural areas
 Low‐carbon energy alternatives to fossil fuels: advanced bioenergy offers potential lifecycle carbon emission reductions.
Bioenergie-politik
•
•
•
•
•
In his State of the Union speech, George
W. Bush set a target to boost ethanol
and other alternative fuel production to
35 billion gallons a year by 2017 – a
fivefold increase.
The March 9, 2007 deal between the
United States and Brazil on biofuels
satisfies the growing US demand in
ethanol.
European Union leaders at a climate
change summit in Brussels March 9,
2007 have agreed to slash carbon
dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990
levels by the year 2020.
These cuts would rise to 30% if the
United States and other industrialized
countries were to commit themselves to
'comparable' emissions cuts after 2012,
and if large developing countries
including China contribute 'adequately'.
The European Commission wants
countries to pledge, among other things,
to raise use of renewable fuels to 20%.
Globale produktion von biotreibstoff
Vital Signs 2010
Geplantes wachstum von ethanol in USA
70
44.8
60
Billion Gallons/Year
50
40
30
20
Cellulosic Ethanol
and "Green" Diesel
3.7
12.8
10
9.4
Grain Ethanol
and Conventional Biodiesel
Grain Ethanol and Vegetable Oil Biodiesel
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Stanley R. Bull, NREL
2030
Ethanol von Mais
In 2006, 17 percent of the corn crop
was processed into ethanol which
accounted for 2 percent of fuel supply.
Technology Review, Jan. 2008
Energie und preis landwirtschaftlicher Güter
2000-09
6
IMF Commodity Index
5
4
Crude oil
Corn
Soybeans
Soybean oil
Palm oil
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics
Commodity prices and indices are normalized to equal 1.0, on average, for 2000
2008
2009
Gibt es eine verbindung zwischen
Nahrungspreis und unruhen?
Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27083/
Death tolls in parentheses
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crisis-in-egypt/arab-nations-are-the-largest-importers-of-grains/article1889683/?from=1889680
Palmöl für biodiesel?
Welt-Anbaufläche von ölpalmen
Bioenergie lebenszyklus
CABER 2007
Kritische Aspekte von biotreibstoffen
 Energy balance
 Carbon balance
 Land use
 Competition with food
 Water needs
 Fertilizer and chemical inputs
 Biodiversity, monoculture, invasive species
 Safety and security
 Cost of harvest and distribution
 Jobs
 Subsidies
 Legal issues
 Comprehensive Life-cycle Assessment for sustainable biofuels
Partikelkonzentrationen der
holzverbrennung in entwicklungsländern
Source: IPCC 2007:WG3, based on Karekezi and Kithyoma, 2003.
Das bewertungs-Dreieck
Wert
Bioenergie
Kosten
Risiko
Strategien für nachhaltige
energienutzung
Conservation
Equity
Cooperation
Negotiation
Efficiency
Risk reduction
-
Energy
source
Distribution
Risk
Participation
Sufficiency
+
Utility
Values
Goals
V=E • d • p • (v-r) = V*
Faktoren von Treibhausgas-Emissionen:
Die Kaya-Identität
Greenhous
Gas
Emissions
G
Emission
Intensity
=
G/E
x
Energy
Intensity
E/W
x
Labor
Productivity
Population
x
W/P
P
G = (G/E) * (E/W) * (W/P) * P = g * e * w * P
G is global greenhouse gas emissions from human sources (e.g.
CO2)
P is global population
W is world wealth (GDP)
E is global primary energy consumption
w = (W/P) is global per-capita wealth (labor productivity)
e=(E/W) is the energy intensity of world wealth (GDP)
g=(G/E) is the carbon intensity of energy.
Yoichi Kaya, 1993, Environment, Energy, and Economy: strategies for sustainability
Pflanzen-effizienz
Source: Sorensen
Biomass to fill the
tank on the truck
with bioethanol….
Source: Paul Carver, 2007
…..45 minutes
fuel for a coal
fired power station
Source: Paul Carver, 2007
Mehrjährige gräser
Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.)
Miscanthus x giganteus
Courtesy: D.K. Lee 2008
Maiserträge in den usa
Source: Troyer, 1990
Troyer, 1990
Projezierte Maiserträge in USa
Maiserträge mit regenbewässerung
Source: Rockström 2009
Energierelation und CO2-Emissionen
von ethanol
Technology Review, Jan. 2008
Landbedarf von biotreibstoffen
für 50% der Pkw-Nutzer in usa
Verteilung technischer energiepotentiale von fester biomasse
Source: Kaltschmitt 2003, Energiegewinnung aus Biomasse.
Adapted from: Kaltschmitt et al., 2003, p. 48
IPCC, 1996.
H 2 f ro m w o o d
(b y
g a s if ic a t io n )
M e O H f ro m
w o o d (b y
g a s if ic a t io n )
E t O H f ro m
wood
(a d v a n c e d
t e c h n o lo g y )
E t O H f ro m
w o o d (p re s e n t
t e c h n o lo g y )
E t O H f ro m
s u g a rc a n e
(B ra z il)
E t O H f ro m
s u g a r b e e ts
(N e t h e rla n d s )
E t O H f ro m
wheat
(N e t h e rla n d s )
E t O H f ro m
m a iz e (U S A )
100
RM E
(N e t h e rla n d s )
1 0 0 0 v - k m /h a /y r
Land-nutzungs Effizienz
alternativer biotreibstoffe
Light-duty internal combustion engine vehicle, (current technology)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Emissionsvermeidung und
biomasse-ertrag
A voided G H G em issions, kgC eq/ha/yr
12000
Herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2050
10000
8000
Herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2025
6000
Brazil sugarcane, best practice 2002
(68.7 t/ha/yr of raw cane stalks)
Woody & herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2005/2010
4000
2000
Corn ethanol, 2005
0
0
5
10
15
Biomass yield, metric t/ha/yr
20
25
30
Biomasse-produktivität in EU-mena
Bazilevich 1994
Potential für Ackerland
Potential für
Bewässerungslandwirtschaft
Potential für Ertragssteigerung
Konversionspfade der bioenergie
(Source: SRREN 2011, modified from IEA Bioenergy 2009)
Commercial routes (solid lines), developing bioenergy routes (dotted lines)
(1) Parts of each feedstock could also be used in other routes. (2) Each route also gives coproducts.
(3) Biomass upgrading includes any one of the densification processes (pelletization, pyrolysis, torrefaction, etc.).
(4) Anaerobic digestion processes release methane and CO2 and removal of CO2 provides essentially methane
(5) Could be other thermal processing routes such as hydrothermal, liquefaction, etc. DME=dimethyl ether.
Biomasse-netzwerk
Feedstock
farm
Storage
Harvest Transport
Biorefinery
Objective:
Integrate feedstocks,
bioprocessing plants
and consumer demands
into a regional economic
model
• Logistics optimization
• Lifecycle assessment
• Emission reductions
Transp.
networks
(e.g., rail,
highway)
Customers
(e.g., gas
station)
Cost Analysis
• Transp.
• Facility
• Inventory
• Environmental externalities
Refinery Planning
Site Selection based on:
• Resources (e.g., water)
• Farms
• Transp. networks
• Storage (optional)
Feedstock Shipping
• Transp. mode
• Fleet design
(e.g., vehicle capacity)
• Dispatch route & schedule
• Handling at farm/storage
Fuel Distribution
…
• Transp. mode & fleet
• Dispatch route & schedule
• Price and demand
uncertainty
Direkte effekte von
biotreibstoffen
• Habitat destruction (particularly in Amazonia for soy and South‐East Asia for palm oil)
• Local environmental impacts upon air, water and soil quality and exacerbation of local water supply concerns
• Health impacts and social issues including poor working conditions for laborers and reported loss of land rights for indigenous peoples where new plantations for feedstock are established.
inDirekte effekte von biotreibstoffen
 Rising food commodity prices and the effect upon food security for the poor
 Displacement of agricultural production to uncultivated areas with impacts on biodiversity, GHG savings and local land rights as a result of biofuel production.
 Many forms of land‐use change result in significant releases of carbon to the atmosphere (payback time), negating any benefits (compared to petrol). • Examples:
 Expansion of sugar cane production in Brazil, leading to displacement of cattle ranching and accelerated deforestation in Amazonia.  Expansion of soy production in South and Latin America as a consequence of US farmers increasing production of maize (and reducing production of soy)  Increased demand and prices for oil seed rape for biodiesel in the EU leads to expansion of palm oil production in South‐East Asia.
Emissionseinsparung und payback
für biomasse
Source: Gallagher Review 2008, based on E4Tech 2008
Standards für nachhaltige biomasse
Source: Eco Institute 2006
Multi-stakeholder dialoge
 Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)
 Roundtable for Responsible Soy (RTRS)
 SA 8000: developed by Social Accountability International (SAI)
 Global Social Compliance Program (GSCP): initiative of CIES, InternationalCommittee of Food Retail Chains, Food Business Forum.
 Fairtrade  Rainforest Alliance
 GlobalGap  International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM)
Roundtable on sustainable biofuels
•
• UNEP
• Brazilian environmental and social •
NGO’s
•
• Bunge Corporation
•
• BP
• Dutch Ministry of Housing and the •
Environment
•
• The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) of India
•
• Swiss Federal Institute of Technology •
(EPFL)
• Federation of Swiss Oil Companies •
• Forest Stewardship Council
•
• Keio University, Japan
•
• Mali Folkecenter
•
• Pinho, Petrobras
•
• Volkswagen Environment
•
•
National Wildlife Federation
Swiss Energy Ministry
Shell Oil
Toyota Motor Europe
UNCTAD
UN Foundation
University of California at Berkeley
World Economic Forum
WWF International Working Groups’ Chairs
Michigan State University
IUCN, National African Farmers’ Union
German NGO Forum
Virgin Group.
Kriterien für nachhaltige nutzung von
bioenergie
Environmental criteria
Political criteria
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Climate change
Air quality
Water supply and quality
Land resources
Biodiversity and wildlife
protection
Development for MENA
No resource exploitation
True cooperation
Low conflict potential
Political stability Democratization
Economic criteria
Social criteria
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Microeconomic efficiency
Macro‐economic benefits
Technology transfer
Regional economy
Employment generation
Risk avoidance
Anti‐corruption
Stakeholder participation
Improved service availability
Capacity development
Fair distribution of project return
New varieties
Genomics
Pest control
Land use
Technical
Feasibility
Engine technology
Consumer demand
Recycling
Environmental
Sustainability
Feedstocks
Utilization
Bioenergy
Lifecycle
Technology
Machinery
Labor
Harvesting Logistics
Transportation
Social-political
Acceptability
Economic
Viability
Distribution
Logistics
Transportation
Industry Structure
Resource recovery
Processing
Deconstruction
Microbes
Fermentation
Coproducts
Industry