Arko Advice

Political Scenarios
2009/2010
Arko Advice Surveys - Murillo de Aragão
March 2009. © Arko Advice
Arabic proverb
Murillo de Aragão - Arko
Advice - 2009
“Those who foretell the future,
lie, even when they get it right”
15 years (1994 – 2009)
Two Presidential Reforms
Ê Real Plan
Ê Income distribution
Ê Social Protection Network
Ê Increase of reserves
Ê LRF (Fiscal Accountability
Ê Internal Debt Reduction
Law)
Ê Some Reforms
Ê Privatization of Telecoms
Ê Inflation Targets
Ê Increase of FDIs
Ê Broadening of the RPS
Ê Some (scant) reforms
Ê Expansion of International
Trade (Trade Balance)
Ê Brazil Risk
Ê Primary Surplus
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Murillo de Aragão - Arko
Advice - 2009
Political Health - 2008
G-79 party situation
2004 Elections
2008 Elections
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Party situation in State capitals
Party
2004
2008
Capital cities
PMDB
3
6
Campo Grande, Goiânia, Florianópolis, Porto Alegre, Rio de
Janeiro, Salvador
PT
9
6
Fortaleza, Palmas, Porto Velho, Recife, Rio Branco, Vitória
PSDB
5
4
Curitiba, Teresina, Cuiabá, São Luis
PSB
3
3
Boa Vista, João Pessoa, BH
PTB
-
2
Belém, Manaus
DEM
1
1
São Paulo
PCdoB
-
1
Aracaju
PDT
3
1
Macapá
PP
-
1
Maceió
PV
-
1
Natal
PPS
1
-
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Lula’s Popularity
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Slide 7
M1
sep/08 - Sept/08normalmente nomes de meses com 1a letra maiuscula
Mike, 7/11/2009
Congressiona l support for Governme nt
Allied base: 370 representati ves
Actual support (2008): 266.19
representati ves
Allied base: 53 senators
Actual support (2008): 38.12
senators
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
2008’s foot print
Ê Highly popular President
Ê Government candidate chosen
Ê José Serra maintaining leadership in presidential race
Ê PMDB strengthened by municipal elections
Ê Fragmented political base
Ê Undecided elite
Ê Economy in danger
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Murillo de Aragão - Arko
Advice - 2009
2009 – Year of Trends
Crisis, Succession and Ethical Cleansing
Dominate the Scenario
Executive Branch Agenda
Legislative Branch Agenda
✔Maneuvers to reduce the
crisis and its side effects
✔ Oriented by prospects of
command changes in 2010
✔Actions to consolidate
leadership
✔ Paralyzed by internal crises;
✔Priorities: maintain the
economy heated up; PAC
(Accelerated Growth
Program) and regulation
(pre-salt layer oil and
renovation of electric power
industry concessions)
✔ Complex votes tend to be
negatively affected
Judiciary Agenda
✔Promote ethical cleansing wit hin the political clas s
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Machado de Assis (Conselheiro Aires)
Murillo de Aragão - Arko
Advice - 2009
“Não há alegria pública que valha
uma boa alegria particular” (sic.
There is no common good worth
more than selfi sh indulgence)
Economic Crisis
More PAC
More
Credit
More
Media
More
Funds
Funds and
Positions and
no revisiting
difficult
issues
Candidate?
Coalition ?
In search of a
discourse
In search of
allegations
POWER
We’ve cleaned
our image at
the expense of
politicians
3rd
possibility?
Coalition
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
What should be defined in 2009?
Ê Government candidature
Ê New PT party president (November)
Ê The Opposition’s form of candidature
selection
Ê Damage caused by the economic crisis
Ê Direction to be taken by the elites
Ê The PMDB’s price
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
A few 2009 political Events
1st
Quarter
Succession in Congress. Resumption of
congressional undertakings
2nd
Quarter
Minimum wage, Budget Guidelines Law. Voting
on the Reforms
3rd
Quarter
Party Affiliation (2010 elections), Shaping of the
Pre-Salt layer oil model, Reduction of
Bureaucracy, Central Bank succession BC (?)
4th
Quarter
2010 budget. PT elects new party president and
officially announces its presidential candidate.
PSDB defines its primaries
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Succession
Debate
2009 Congressional Agenda
Ideal
Ê
Tax Reform
Ê
Political Reform
Ê
Labor Reform
Ê
Limit on MPs
Ê
Ê
Probable
Ê
Limit on MPs (Provisional
Measures)
Ê
Electoral Reform
Ê
Some Tax Reform (not
conclusive)
Ê
Defense of Competition
Ê
Positive registry
Ê
Gaming Legalization
Ê
Pre-Salt (partial)
Ê
Credit cards
Ê
Electric power industry
concession
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Pre-Salt
Competition
Ê
Positive Registry
Ê
Technological Convergence
Ê
Social Security
The succession will heat up in
stages
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Murillo de Aragão - Arko
Advice - 2009
2010 – A year of Definition
and Competition
Machado de Assis (Conselheiro Aires)
Murillo de Aragão - Arko
Advice - 2009
“O inesperadosempre tem
votodecisivonaassembl éia dos
acontecimentos”. (sic. The unexpected
always has the decisive vote in the
assembly of events)
What will be defined in 2010
Ê Changes to the Executive Br anch (Minister ial Reform –
between Mar ch and April 2010)
Ê The form of the pro-government coalition
Ê The PMDB par ty’s destiny
Ê Party and name of the vice -president on Lula ’s ticket
Ê Eventual existence of a B pro-government ticket
M2
Ê Form of the coalition led by the PSDB
Ê And, obviously, the next president
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Slide 20
M2
talvez "2nd" ao invez de "B"
Mike, 7/11/2009
Murillo de Aragão - Arko
Advice - 2009
Rough Combinations and
Sincere Lies
Strenghts and weaknesses
Players
Weaknesses
Speech
Popular president
Economic performance
Social programs
PAC
No natural candidate
Financial crisis
Vulnerable ethics
Political Coordination Problems
Allied base untrustworthy
Continuity
Comparison with FHC
era
Social achievements
PSDB
Candidates well positioned in
the polls
Strong support from the
establishment
Economic formulation
creativity
Difficulties in exploring FHC’s
achievements.
Lack of transparency regarding
the identity of the main name –
Serra
Renewal
Experience as an
administrator
Maintenance of the
good things
PMDB
Largest party in the country
No strong name (nationally)
Internal divisions
Experience
DEM
Governs the largest city in the
country (São Paul o)
Party in decline
Renewal
PSB
Leftist trend of the electorate
Electoral advance in the NE
Taking advantage of its
partner’s conquests (PT)
Lack of party structure
No establishment support
Improvement
PT
Strengths
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
What will define the 2010 election?
1 - Lula’s popularity
2 - Intensity of the
Crisis
3 – Capacity to
transfer votes
4 – PMDB support
5 – Use of the state
machine
6 – Support from the
elites
7 – Political cohesion
8 – Quality of the
discourse
Furthermore, the unthink able can happen: ( past examples) the Real Plan (1994),
reelection and financial crisis (1998), 2006 (doss ier scandal), 2009 (Minister
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Dilma Rousseff's cancer)
An Exercise of the Conditioning Factors
Issue
Government
Opposition
Alternative
Popularity
Positive
Positive
Undefined (+)
Transfer of
prestige
Positive
Negative
Undefined
Economic
Crisis
Negative (-)
Positive (-)
Undefined (-)
Administrative
machine
Positive (+ +)
Positive
Undefined
Political
Cohesion
Undefined (-)
Undefined
Undefined
Candidate
Undefined
Positive
Undefined
Support from
Elites
Positive
Undefined
Undefined
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Scenario 1 – Severe Crisis
Ê Lula enters the race weakened
Ê Will depend more on his personal charisma and the media
Ê and on Dilma Rousseff’s personal performance
Ê Opposition gets a ready made discourse
Ê Alternative (third possibility) may be strengthened
Ê Scenario becomes nebulous
Ê Government, opposition or third possibility appear with similar
chances
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Scenario 2 – Medium Crisis
Ê Lula enters race less strong
Ê He will depend more on his personal charisma
Ê and on Dilma Rousseff ’s personal performance
Ê Opposition gains some strength
Ê but not enough to threaten the President ’s prestige
Ê Scenario tends to have a less negative effect on the government
Ê As a consequence, the government ’s favoritism may be
consolidated
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
How can the Government lose
Ê Strong candidates
Ê Vote transfer blocking strategy
Ê Strong coalition ( in the runoffs)
Ê Division of the pro -Government base
Ê PT party structural weaknesses
Ê PMDB out of the pro-Government coalition ( supporting the
opposition or free for state coalitions)
Ê New fact (scandal, loss of economic control)
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Why can Lula’s candidate win
despite opposition lead
Ê There is no “material fatigue ” without his administration
Ê There is no alternative project that is enchanting to the
population
Ê There is no organized resistance from sectors of society
against his political project
Ê There is no aggressive posture by electronic media against
Lula
Ê There is a large voter conti ngent that feels it is represented
by Lula
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Polarization seems certain. But...
Ê Serra and Rousseff trend to confrontation within a society
that loves consensus and secret collaboration
Ê Neither of them are personally “sexy”
Ê AécioNeves would be the most acceptable candidate, but
does not dominate the main variables
Ê AécioNeves in the PSB together with the PDT and PCdoB
and eventually the PP, coul d be a strong combination, but...
Ê The advance of the Political Reform could be the most...
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice - 2009
Murillo de Aragão
Attorney, journalist, political
scientist, holds a Masters degree in
Political Science and a Doctorate in
Sociology through the Universidade
de Brasília.
He is President of Arko Advice
Pesquisas (Brasília- São Paulo an d
Porto Alegre) and a CD ES counselor
Murillo de Aragão - Arko Advice 2009