Your Money at Stake: What 30-, 40-, and 50-Year-Olds
Transcription
Your Money at Stake: What 30-, 40-, and 50-Year-Olds
1 Your Money at Stake: What 30-, 40-, and 50-Year-Olds Need to Know NOW About Social Security Webcast Transcript Recorded on July 30, 2013 Featuring: Michael Santoli, Senior Columnist, Yahoo! Finance Bill Hunter, Director, Personal Retirement Solutions at Merrill Lynch® Kurt Czarnowski, Social Security expert, Czarnowski Consulting Sharon Miller, Managing Director and National Sales Executive at Bank of America Please see important information at the end of this video. Chapter 1: Perspective on Social Security MR. SANTOLI: Hello, and welcome to this special webcast: “Your Money at Stake: What 30-, 40-, and 50-year-olds need to know now about Social Security,” sponsored by Merrill Edge. I'm Michael Santoli, a senior columnist at Yahoo! Finance, and I'm here today with a panel of financial professionals who will help us take a closer look at Social Security and the role it may play in your retirement strategies for your future—whether you're just starting your career, in mid-career and trying to balance your priorities for investing, or getting closer to retirement. Our three panelists today are very well equipped to discuss Social Security and how it may affect your retirement strategy. Kurt Czarnowski was Regional Communications Director for the Social Security Administration for nearly 20 years. Today he speaks frequently about Social Security on the radio and at retirement planning seminars all across the U.S. Sharon Miller is Managing Director and National Sales Executive at Bank of America, overseeing Merrill Edge Financial Solutions Advisors who offer retirement planning and guidance to Merrill Edge clients. I'm also joined by Bill Hunter, Director of Merrill Lynch's Personal Retirement Solutions Group. Bill and his team develop strategies to help individual investors pursue their retirement goals. To kick off our discussion, I'll ask Kurt Czarnowski to give us a little history and perspective on Social Security. So Kurt, set us up. MR. CZARNOWSKI: Thank you, Michael. It's great to be here. You know, the Social Security program is now more than 78 years old, and each and every month Social Security pays about $63 billion in benefits to about 57 million people in this country. And what I came to see during my time with the agency, and now that I'm out on my 2 own, is that despite the age of the program, despite the size of the program, and despite the economic impact that Social Security has on the country today, unfortunately the myths and misunderstandings that are out there about what it is, as well as what it isn't, are staggering. So in our time together today, I want to focus on some of the philosophical issues that I think those workers in their 30s, 40s, and 50s need to know about the Social Security program— both what it is, as well as what it isn't. And I think the single biggest misunderstanding people have about the program is that they think about Social Security just as a retirement program. It's important for people of all ages to understand that Social Security is more than just retirement. It's really this broad-based social insurance program which, through its disability protection and survivor insurance protection, provides income security for workers and their families of all ages. [CHART] Who Gets Benefits from Social Security? If we look at this chart of today's Social Security beneficiaries, it brings home the point that Social Security isn't just a program for old people. In fact a third of the people who collect a monthly Social Security payment are not retired workers, including among them 1.9 million children who collect survivor benefits because their parent has passed away. There are nearly 9 million workers who collect monthly disability payments because they're unable to work. So Social Security is more than just retirement. And it's particularly important for younger workers to understand that, because Social Security did a study of today's 20-year-olds. 3 [CHART] Importance of Social Security to Young Americans One in four is going to become disabled before reaching retirement age; one in eight will pass away before reaching retirement age, and it's because of this disability protection and survivor insurance protection that Social Security is really this broad-based program for folks. People often say, "Will it be there for me in the future?" I say absolutely—I believe firmly it'll be there for you in the future. But because of the disability protection and the survivor protection, it's important for people to understand that the program is there for them today. But just as important: Understand what the Social Security program isn't. Social Security, from its inception nearly 78 years ago, was never intended to be somebody's sole source of income. It was always intended to provide a base or a foundation that people can count on being there, but it's a base or a foundation that people must take steps to supplement. For the average worker these days, the Social Security payment that they collect is intended to replace only around 40 percent of someone's preretirement income. Now, from my perspective, I don't care how people supplement their Social Security payment. 4 [CHART] Retirement Income Sources: All Retirees, Ages 65+ And the chart before us shows that today's retirees do supplement their Social Security payments in a number of different ways—through earnings, through pensions, through asset income. But the key point for folks is to understand: It was never intended to be your only source of income. You need to find ways to supplement Social Security, and the sooner that people understand that and then take steps to do that, far more likely they are to have that safe, secure, comfortable retirement that everybody aspires to. MR. SANTOLI: Well, Bill, how should we start to think about those strategies for supplementing income eventually in retirement? MR. HUNTER: It's important to understand how Social Security plays into your retirement planning because we all depend on it, even those retirees with the highest incomes. If you look at retirement planning, it's often referred to as the three-legged stool, with pensions, Social Security and savings. There actually is a fourth leg, which is earnings during their retirement years, and even for those retirees with the largest incomes during those years, it still only comprises 17 percent of their sources of income. 5 [CHART] Retirement Income Sources: High-Income Retirees So it's important for people to be responsible to make up for that difference, either through savings in their working years or working part-time in their later years. The folks that do work part-time in their later years, they actually do it because they want to, not necessarily because they have to. A lot of the retirees nowadays want to remain vital and productive, so it's something that they're doing to supplement their income. Chapter 2: Will Social Security be there for you? MR. SANTOLI: Well, we'll be talking a bit more about the idea of working during retirement a bit later, but Sharon, I wonder: In your experience, how aware are nonretired folks of this potential income challenge down the road? MS. MILLER: Sure. And we'll get to the nuts and bolts about what people should be doing at any age in preparation for retirement, but for the purposes of this discussion, let's talk about what younger workers are hearing. They're hearing a lot about Social Security in the media, and what they're saying is they do not believe that it’s going to be available to them as an income source in retirement. And so they're starting to save earlier than their parents did. They're investing more aggressively than their parents did. They understand that recessions happen, unemployment happens, life happens beyond our control. So they've learned those lessons and they're starting to prepare much earlier. In a recent Merrill Edge report, we found that Gen Y investors—so those age 18 to 34—they started saving at an average age of 22 years old, as opposed to the baby boomers, who started saving at an average age of 35. This is clearly an advantage when you think about these younger investors getting into their retirement years. They will have that compounded effect of starting earlier. 6 [CHART] Looking Ahead In addition, we asked, “What do you plan on doing over the next 12 months?” Resoundingly the Gen Y investors responded that they intended to grow their nest egg. In addition, they said that they would be putting money away in the stock market—and when you think about the percentage, 57 percent said that they would do that as opposed to the national average of 29 percent. We also found that the Gen Y investors are going to rely much less on the public sector, like Social Security or Medicare. Fifty percent will rely on that in their retirement as a supplement, as opposed to two years ago, when we found that same stat at 63 percent. So you can see, increasingly, our clients are telling us they will rely less and less on Social Security as their prime source of income. MR. SANTOLI: Oh, it definitely sounds encouraging. But you know, Sharon brings up an interesting point. For years we've seen these surveys that suggest that especially younger people continually say they don't expect Social Security to be there for them, however they might define that. So Kurt, comment on that. MR. CZARNOWSKI: Sure. I hear that question and that concern raised all the time when I'm out and in answering it, I like to think back to a famous quote from Mark Twain, who years ago wrote, "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." In dealing with this issue I think the same thing is true, that reports of Social Security's demise are greatly exaggerated. I think it's important to focus on the facts. Now, each year Social Security's Board of Trustees—Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of the Treasury, the Commissioner of Social Security and two members of the public—issue a report for the American public on the financial health of the Social Security System. The report not only details current status but also attempts to project 75 years into the future. And the 2013 report projects that, as currently constituted, assuming no changes to the program whatsoever, absolute maintenance of the status quo going forward, Social Security is projected to have enough money on hand to cover 100 percent of promised benefits each and every month between now and the year 2033. 7 And the report also goes on to say from that point forward, Social Security is still anticipated to have enough money to cover three-quarters of promised benefits going forward. So that's a lot different than what a lot of people hear about the future of the program. MR. SANTOLI: So then what you're saying is beyond the next 20 years, say, if nothing changed, we might have a reduction potentially in the level of benefits, but obviously Social Security would still be there. MR. CZARNOWSKI: Absolutely. You know, a lot of the young folks in particular, hearing talk about Social Security going bust, Social Security going bankrupt, leads them to mistakenly believe that at some point Social Security will have no money whatsoever. But again we need to deal with the facts. [CHART] Who Pays for Social Security? From day one the Social Security program has operated on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning it is the payroll taxes collected from employers, employees and people who are self-employed, that come into the Social Security system and then are turned right around and used to pay the benefits for today's future Social Security beneficiaries. So think about it. Absent a complete and total collapse of the United States economy so that nobody is working anywhere, Social Security will always have a revenue stream of some sort. Now the question facing the country is: As currently projected, is that revenue stream thought to be enough to cover 100 percent of the benefits that have been promised? And beginning in the year 2034, it isn't. There's going to be, as projected—again, assuming no changes—a 25 percent gap that needs to be closed to ensure that Social Security is able to continue to pay 100 percent of the benefits that have been promised. Now you think about that gap and closing it. Two ways you can do it. You can do it on the income side, or you can do it on the outflow side, and those are the issues confronting Congress. We'll talk about that in a little bit more detail later on. 8 Chapter 3: Filling the funding gap MR. SANTOLI: Yes, we'll get to those policy discussions. But Bill, let's also get to what's exactly driving that projected shortfall. MR. HUNTER: There's a logical reason. With the advances in medicine and adopting healthier lifestyles, people are living longer. [CHART] The Good News: We Can Expect to Live Longer in Retirement So the average life expectancy in the U.S. right now is 78 years. That's 30 years longer than it was 100 years ago. So people are living longer. And some people tend to anchor on the 78 years. But, in fact, if you're a male turning age 65 today, you can expect to live on average until you're 84. And for a female turning 65 today, they can expect to live on average to 86. So there is a longevity issue there. As a matter of fact, there's a number of people turning 100 quite a bit. I imagine everybody around this table can name somebody that's turned 100. 9 [CHART] Living Longer in Retirement If you think about it, for a couple who is 70 years old, one of them has a 50 percent chance of reaching the age of 92. They have a 25 percent chance of reaching the age of 97, and a 10 percent chance of reaching 102. So basically you have more people claiming Social Security and claiming for a longer period of time. This is putting a huge strain on this pay-as-you-go system. MR. SANTOLI: In addition to the good news of everybody living longer, for the most part, we also have another basic demographic issue: basically the ratio of people working versus retirees, correct? MR. HUNTER: Absolutely. [CHART] The Not-So-Good News: Social Security Is Threatened by an Aging Population 10 The number of people who are taking benefits from Social Security versus the workers paying into the system has changed dramatically over the years. In 1950 there were 16 workers for every person receiving benefits. Today, there's only 2.8 workers for every person taking out benefits. And if you project to 2033, there’s only going to be 2.1 workers for every one person receiving benefits. So again, not sustainable for a pay-as-you-go system. As far as the intervention, and what needs to happen to put Social Security back on track, I'll defer to Kurt. MR. SANTOLI: Kurt, so what specific measures might we be discussing? MR. CZARNOWSKI: Again I think it's important to review facts. The 2013 Trustees' Report projects Social Security has enough money on hand to cover 100 percent of promised benefits through 2033. Beginning in 2034 it's only projected to have enough money to cover about three-quarters of the promised benefits. So basically you're dealing with an issue of how do you close this 25 percent funding gap, and that's an issue Congress needs to deal with. The sooner Congress deals with it, the better it is, because people have more time to plan and adjust their retirement plans. But again, how do we deal with the issue? Well, it comes back to the fact that Social Security is, again, this pay-as-you-go system. It's money coming in each month; it's money going out. And so, as you think about how you fix the issue, it's not dissimilar from your own situation at home. You have money coming in each month; you have obligations and money going out each month. So if at the end of the month you don't have enough money on hand to cover all of your obligations, you need to do one of two things: You need to bring more money in or pay a little bit less money out. And that's the issue confronting Social Security. But think about it. If you close that 25 percent gap simply by bringing more money in, who are you going to be impacting? You're going to be impacting younger workers. You're going to be impacting employers. On the other hand, if you close that gap simply by reducing benefit payments, reducing the outflow, who are you going to be impacting? Older folks—Social Security beneficiaries. So in my view, the solution needs to be a blend—some increases on the income side, some reductions on the outflow side—so that everybody feels they're giving equally at the office, nobody feels they've been singled out for disparate treatment. And this is the challenge confronting the Congress, confronting the American public in coming up with these changes to the program. But here's the thing about change in terms of Social Security: The Social Security program in place today is not identical to the one that was created in 1935. It has always changed and evolved as American society has changed and evolved. So I think it's unrealistic to think that there won't be changes coming down the road. But I think there needs to be some changes. And again, as I look at it, you want to have some increases on the income side, some reductions on the outflow side, so again, everybody feels they're giving equally at the office. MR. SANTOLI: So, Kurt, what specific measures might Congress consider to bridge this projective gap? MR. CZARNOWSKI: This issue of shortfall in Social Security is not a new one and people have been thinking about it for a long time now. A lot of proposals are out there for 11 consideration, and it's important to remind folks that the Social Security Administration plays an important role in this process because the Social Security Administration actuaries have tried to play the role of honest broker and they go out and score or attempt to assess the financial impact of some of these proposals that have been brought forward by different people. And if people are interested in getting more information about some of these specific proposals—we'll talk about a couple in a second—Social Security's website has some great information at www.SocialSecurity.gov/ and then in all cap letters OACT—an abbreviation for Office of the Actuary—you get all kinds of good information about that. But there are some specific proposals that you want to think about. [CHART] Proposals to Close the Social Security Gap Again, we're talking about closing a gap on both the income side and the outflow side. So if you look on the income side, somebody who's working in the Social Security system today pays 6.2 percent payroll tax, and in 2013 on the first $113,700 that they make. So one way you could bring some additional revenue into the system is by increasing the payroll tax rate, that 6.2 percent that people pay. Incidentally, that has been unchanged since 1990. The rate has been the same for more than 20 years now. Another revenue increase might be if you increase that cap, that $113,700. If you make above that, you don't pay Social Security tax on any part of that. So you could increase the tax rate or you could increase the tax base. On the outflow side a number of different measures could be considered. To qualify for retirement benefits today, you have to think about your Full Retirement Age, which for people these days is age 66, but it tops out. Anyone born in 1960 or later has a Social Security Full Retirement Age of 67. Full retirement is the age at which you get 100 percent of your benefits based on your work history. But under the program you could also begin to collect as early as age 62 if you choose to do so. So one way to reduce outflow might be to increase that Full Retirement Age from its current level of 67 upward because life expectancy is increasing. A second way might be to increase that early retirement age from 62. And a third way to perhaps reduce the outflow is to increase 12 the number of years that Social Security looks at in calculating the amount of your retirement benefit. These days Social Security looks at your highest 35 years of work and earnings in calculating the amount of your payment. Well, people are working longer, so perhaps you might want to change the calculation formula and increase the number of years that are used. This would also slow the outflow of benefits. So again, close that 25 percent funding gap—some on the income side, some on the outflow side—and I think there are reasonable ways that it can be done. And again, if people have interest in getting more information, Social Security's actuary website does provide a lot of good information on the impact of these and some other changes that are being proposed. MR. SANTOLI: So the point to keep in mind here, Kurt, it's not as if Congress is going to have to rebuild Social Security from the ground up, but that over time, they may have to find ways to bridge that 25 percent gap, is that right? MR. CZARNOWSKI: It's absolutely correct, Mike. You hear a lot of talk about Social Security being a program in crisis. It's not a program that faces any type of crisis. I prefer to think of it as a program that faces challenges over the course of the next few years. Congress needs to come together to decide ways that they can close this 25 percent funding gap by the year 2034. Chapter 4: How delaying benefits helps MR. SANTOLI: So, Bill, then, for individuals, how should they start thinking about these choices surrounding the age at which they might claim? MR. HUNTER: The key is education, learning how the system works, especially as it relates to when people should claim Social Security. What we find is many Americans claim at 62, as soon as they can, and I think part of the reason is they don't understand how the system works. So, as Kurt was mentioning, there's a Full Retirement Age and in this chart it's denoted with the red bar. 13 [CHART] Collecting Social Security Benefits You get 100 percent of your Social Security benefit at that time, but for every year you take it earlier, you're actually reducing it by 6 percent. So for those that are taking it at 62 versus their Full Retirement Age, they're locking in a 25 percent discount and, as a matter of fact, they do not reset it at Full Retirement Age. You're locking in that discount. It's a permanent discount. It's locked in for the rest of your life. Conversely, if you're at your Full Retirement Age and you actually waited, for each year you deferred claiming your Social Security, you're actually increasing your benefit by 8 percent a year. So between Full Retirement Age and age 70, where it levels off, you're actually increasing it 8 percent a year. Which, If you think about it, what other investments are guaranteed for 8 percent? So if you look at the difference between taking it at age 62 versus waiting until age 70, there's a 76 percent difference in your monthly benefits. MR. SANTOLI: And how does that convert into actual dollars people might actually experience every month? MR. HUNTER: You know that's a great question because people like to talk in dollars, not necessarily in percentages. 14 [CHART] The Difference Waiting Can Make So in that same example, at Full Retirement Age, if Social Security payments has a $24,000 annual payment if you took it at age 62, you'll only be getting $18,000, so again, locking in that discount. Conversely, if you wait to age 70 instead of Full Retirement Age, that increases to almost $32,000. So again, it's a 76 percent difference between $18,000 annually if you take it at 62 versus $32,000 when you take it at age 70. That's significant, especially as people retire and potentially live 10, 20, 30 years. [CHART] Cumulative Lifetime Social Security Benefits This next chart actually shows the difference in real dollars over time. So for those that took it at 62—that $18,000 a year if they live to 85 versus somebody who started taking at 70 and they live to 85, there's a difference of about $62,000 just from that difference there. However, if they waited until 95 where it's exponential growth, there's hundreds of thousands of dollars of 15 difference—there's the difference between $594,000 versus $792,000. So we're almost talking $200,000. So that is significant. It should be recognized though that not everybody can wait to claim Social Security, whether it’s their savings or investments or because they lost their job or they have health issues. At Merrill Lynch we believe it should be a very deliberate, thoughtful, strategic, well-informed discussion that you have with your spouse or your financial professional to determine what's right for your situation. MR. SANTOLI: And for those who are lucky enough to be able to wait if they so choose, why do you think they don't work to maximize their retirement income that way? MR. HUNTER: I think three things. First, it's the present bias: They want the “bird in the hand” —in fact behavioral finance calls this the present bias. Also "crowd think": Knowing that a number of people take it at 62, they just assume the crowd is moving in the right direction. And also, the idea that they view it as tactical planning, because I don't think they realize it's tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake. So it's avoiding the tactical planning, the crowd bias, and the present bias. MR. SANTOLI: Sharon, does that sound familiar in your work? MS. MILLER: Pretty typical. [CHART] Ages at Which People Claim Social Security Benefits Historically, folks have opted at about the rate of 73 percent to begin taking their Social Security payments early. It doesn't mean they all start at age 62, but clearly, three quarters of the population are opting to take them before Full Retirement Age. 16 Chapter 5: Is it realistic to plan on working longer? MR. SANTOLI: If a person is delaying taking Social Security, it's also because they're continuing to work. You hear a lot of younger, mid-career people say that they anticipate being able to work a lot later and then perhaps delay taking Social Security until 70. Is that realistic? MS. MILLER: I think it's a lot more optimistic than realistic in our studies. In fact, an EBRI study found that half of today's retirees had to retire sooner than they had anticipated. And again, I think we talked about it a lot today on the panel, but it's all around that they could have a health issue, something beyond their control, perhaps downsizing, with all the recession we've seen. So again, we want to make sure that we're planning for those unexpected and not necessarily counting on the ability to work in retirement. 70 percent of people that were already in retirement said that they would keep working; however, only 27 percent were actually working. So you can see that differential there. What people think is going to happen and what actually happens can be very different once you get there. [CHART] Comparison of Expected and Actual Work for Pay in Retirement In addition, this next chart from that same study shows that. The blue line shows those folks that said they would keep working in retirement versus the green line, that depicts who actually did. That has been remarkably similar over the past 15 years. It really hasn't changed much. So again, for those that are thinking that they will be working in retirement as a source of income, these are absolutely sobering statistics. MR. HUNTER: It's very similar to a Merrill Lynch Age Wave study. We just fielded this with the affluent investors. We found that 60 percent of the folks retired earlier than they expected, and then we further queried about why that is. And the number one answer was personal health problems. 17 [CHART] Reasons for Early Retirement About 34 percent said it was a personal health problem; or 24 percent said they lost their job. And with the health problems, it's really a double hit. You have that unexpected increase in medical costs, and you're losing that potential income. So the message here is just concentrate on what you can control. So, save early and often. Chapter 6: What you can do now MR. SANTOLI: Well, clearly, what we've learned here today is that there are so many different decisions that we have to make over a long period of time, and much planning that probably should go into how you think about Social Security and how it fits into your retirement. So, probably a good place to try to boil it down. Kurt, what should people take away from the discussion in your mind? MR. CZARNOWSKI: First and foremost, people—especially younger workers—need to recognize that Social Security is more than just a retirement program. There's important disability protection and survivor protection that are there for younger workers, in particular, in case they need it. We all hope they're not going to need it, but it is there in case they do, and they should be focusing on that and not just thinking about Social Security as some program down in the future. Second, I think people need to understand—and I firmly believe—that Social Security will be there for them in the future. But it's unrealistic to think that there won't need to be changes made to the program down the road. It's incumbent on Congress to act, and the sooner that Congress acts, the better it will be. But there will be some changes made to ensure that Social Security continues to provide this third point—a base of income protection, a foundation that people can count on being there. But the key takeaway is it was never intended to be your only source of income in retirement, and people must take steps to supplement their Social Security payment. And the sooner they start to take those steps, the more likely they are to have that comfortable retirement that people of all ages hope to have. 18 MR. SANTOLI: Bill, what would you like people to take away from this discussion? MR. HUNTER: My three takeaways: First, when you're looking at Social Security, it should be done holistically as part of your retirement plan, and it should not be done in isolation. It should be done with a spouse, understanding the tradeoffs and the issues. Second, save and invest early and often. These are things you can control. So save and invest early and often. And last, life is dynamic, so should your retirement plan be. There are a lot of changes in life, some wanted, some unwanted, so it is not a "set it and forget it." Make a dynamic retirement plan. MR. SANTOLI: And, Sharon, how should people put this in practice, this advice? MS. MILLER: I think it's important, first of all, to set your strategy. What do you want your retirement to look like? And then, as Bill just alluded to, it's really, really critical that you make sure that you're monitoring that over time. You need to keep reevaluating as life changes. As the years go on, make sure that you have evaluated where you are and where you want to get to. In addition, these are very complex needs that we've talked about today, complex themes, and so it may be important that you talk to a financial professional who can help guide you through some of these discussions. [CHART] What to Think About Now, I'm going to get pretty tactical here, but we're talking about our 30s, 40s, and 50s and what clients should be doing at any age through their investing life span. I think in the 30s it's critical that you start to establish and build toward what you want that retirement to look like. So begin contributing to your retirement accounts. Make sure that you have an adequate emergency fund set aside. Moving to your 40s, you're probably earning more during those years, so you want to make sure that you're increasing your contributions to either your 401(k) or your retirement account 19 at work. And again, make sure that you have adequate emergency savings because, as we talked about a lot today, life happens, unemployment happens, recessions happen, and you want to make sure that you're not putting a big dent in your retirement savings because of one of those events. In your 50s, if one of these life events has happened and you haven't been able to save as much, it's important that you begin to catch up. You can put more money aside by contributing to your IRA, contributing more in your 50s through catch-up contributions. These are all big decisions. You want to make sure you know what your strategy is, where you're going for retirement, and again you may want to enlist the help of a financial professional. MR. SANTOLI: All right, excellent guidance. Thank you, Sharon, and thanks to all three of you for being here today. I'd also like to thank you for tuning in. I hope you gained some helpful information from our panelists and I invite you to visit MerrillEdge.com/socialsecurity to learn more. I'm Michael Santoli. Thank you for watching. IMPORTANT INFORMATION Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of the principal value invested. 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