First results of RA 2002 - FUR Forschungsgemeinschaft

F.U.R
Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
RA 2002
First Results
ITB 2002, Berlin
„ Holiday destinations 2001
„ Organisation,
transportation, expenditure, duration
„ Consequences of
terror attacks
„ Travel intentions
2002
„ Changed destination preferences
„ Holiday types in
trend
„ The project
„ F.U.R publications
The 32nd Reiseanalyse RA 2002
The Reiseanalyse is a representative survey describing
the holiday behaviour of Germans, their travel related
attitudes, motivations and interests. Since 1970 the RA
is conducted yearly with the same basic catalogue of
questions. In addition to this basic questionnaire, alternating questions on current topics are added each year.
In this edition of Reisanalyse Aktuell, the newsletter of
the F.U.R, we present the first results of the RA 2002.
Should you need more information, please call us or
visit our internet homepage: www.fur.de.
zzzzzzzz
Developments and trends z z z z z z z z z
ª terror attacks cause only small impact on total
demand 2001
ª more trips abroad than ever before
ª trend towards South persists
ª increase of additional domestic trips
ª no growth of package tours and trips by plane
Masthead
Publisher: F.U.R, Hamburg
e-mail: [email protected]
ª holiday planning 2002 more hesitant than 2001
ª increasing demand for all-inclusive,
wellness / spa & fitness holidays
Wrangelstraße 16, D-24105 Kiel
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F.U.R
Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
mn
70
60
50
40
30 24,8
20
10
0
1972
57,6
63,4
32,1
1982
1992
2001
Holiday trips in millions;
since 1992 incl. new German
federal states
In 2001 the Germans made 63.4 million holiday trips
(5 days +). These are about 1.2 million trips more
(+1.9%) than in 2000. This increase is a result of the
small growth of the number of people travelling and a
slight increase of travel frequency.
48.8 million travellers went on at least one holiday trip.
This corresponds to a travel propensity of 76%.
18% of the Germans went on two or even more holiday
trips (previous year 17%). On average, each traveller
went on 1.3 holiday trips in the year 2001.
RA 2002: German holiday trips - key figures
Not to forget:
the short holiday trips
F.U.R
1998
1999
2000
2001
Population (age 14+) in
millions
63.5
63.8
63.8
64.1
One or more holiday trips
=Travel propensity (%)
76.4
75.3
75.9
76.1
People travelling
(in millions)
48.5
48.0
48.4
48.8
Travel frequency
(trips per tourist)
1.31
1.30
1.29
1.30
Number of holiday trips
(5 days +) in millions
63.4
62.6
62.2
63.4
In addition to holiday trips lasting at least five days, the
Germans conducted more than 58 million short holiday
trips lasting two to four days.
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F.U.R
Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
Holiday destinations 2001
Market share of
destinations 2001:
The table on the following page shows the ranking of
holiday destinations based on all holiday trips in 2001.
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Again the most popular country for Germans was Germany. With a market share of 29% and 18.5 million trips
the importance of Germany is about twice as high as of
number two on the list, Spain (14% market share, 8.6
million trips), and more than three times higher than of
number three, Italy (9% market share, 6 million trips).
Germany: 29%
Spain: 14%
Italy: 9%
Austria: 8%
Turkey: 5%
France: 4%
Market share of all destinations of the Germans in %
Positive development
for Turkey, Croatia, and
Slovenia
Decreasing demand for
America
Attention while
comparing different
sources Î
Neck and neck race within Germany: Bavaria remains unchallenged at the top of the most popular destinations within Germany with a market share of 6.9%.
Schleswig-Holstein (3.9%), Baden-Württemberg (3.7%)
and Mecklenburg-West Pomerania (3.6%) are struggling for the following positions, rank 2 to 4.
Abroad, the market shares remained relatively stable
compared to the year before. Despite a small decrease
Spain remains the most popular destination of the Germans followed by Italy. Austria managed to overcome
the setback of last year. The upward trend of Turkey
continues (market share 1999: 3.2%; 2000: 4.7%; 2001:
5.2%). Also Croatia/Slovenia show a positive development (1999: 1.3%, 2000: 2.2% and 2001: 2.3%).
A damper was put on destinations outside of Europe
after high rates of increase in previous years (market
share 2000: 14.4%; 2001: 14.0%). Basically North
America, Central as well as South America and the
Caribbean were affected by the setbacks mainly due to
the high rate of the US $.
Please note that data are related to the holiday trips of
the German speaking population 14 years and older
lasting at least 5 days. Business trips, and trips lasting
less than 5 days are not included in the table.
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F.U.R
Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
RA 2002: Destinations 2001
Stable market share
Germany / abroad
compared with
previous year
Neck and neck race
within Germany
Austria overcomes last
year’s setback
Turkey, Croatia and
Slovenia on their way
up
Destinations outside
Europe not increasing
last year
F.U.R
1972*
1999
2000
%
%
%
%
Mio.
Germany total
47.0
29.0
29.3
29.2
18.5
Bavaria
12.5
7.1
6.8
6.9
4.4
Schleswig-Holstein
6.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
2.5
Baden-Württemberg
9.5
3.4
3.1
3.7
2.3
Mecklenburg-W. P.
n/a
3.7
3.8
3.6
2.3
Lower Saxony
5.7
3.5
3.1
3.4
2.2
Saxony
n/a
1.2
1.2
1.4
0.9
North Rhine-Westphalia
3.9
1.5
1.8
1.2
0.8
Thuringia
n/a
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.7
Rheinl.-Pal./Saarland
2.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.7
Destinations abroad
52.7
71.0
70.7
70.8
44.9
Spain
6.7
14.7
14.2
13.6
8.6
Italy
10.2
9.6
9.3
9.4
6.0
Austria
13.8
7.4
6.6
7.6
4.8
France
2.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
2.5
Greece
1.1
4.0
3.3
3.5
2.2
DK, S, N, FIN, ISL
3.0
3.0
3.7
2.7
1.7
Croatia, Slovenia,
former Yugoslavia
n/a
1.3
2.2
2.3
1.5
Hungary
n/a
2.0
2.6
2.1
1.3
Other Europ. countries
n/a
12.1
10.6
11,7
7.4
Turkey
n/a
3.2
4.7
5.2
3.3
North America
n/a
2.6
2.3
1.6
1.0
Caribbean, Central and
South America
n/a
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
Other countries outside
Europe
n/a
5.3
5.4
5.7
3.2
Total number of holiday trips (in millions)
24.8
62.6
62.2
*only old German federal states
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Telefon +49 (0)180-57 58 59 5, +49 (0)431-88888 00
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2001
63.4
F.U.R
Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
Organisation, transportation,
expenditure, duration
Holiday trips (in millions)
nd
in the period from the 2 half of
September until the end of December
Source: RA 99-2002
10,9
10,7
10,6
10,5
1998 1999 2000 2001
For the first time in the last 10 years the aeroplane lost
some market shares. However, as the total number of
trips increased, the number of trips by plane remained
about the same.
Coaches and railways increased their market shares
while - following the trend - the dominant role of the private car decreased slightly.
The market share of package tours has shown a slight
decrease as well which can be explained by the setback of the last quarter (caused by the September attacks).
RA 2002: Holiday trips 2001
F.U.R
1998
1999
2000
2001
Car, mobile home
49.6
50.1
49.2
48.5
Plane
32.5
33.1
34.6
33.7
Coach
9.6
9.3
9.1
9.7
Railway
6.6
5.9
5.8
6.7
Package tours
27.0
29.7
30.7
29.9
Other booking
through travel
agency
17.6
14.5
15.3
15.2
Directly at the hotel
or agent
27.3
25.8
26.4
29.0
Others
28.2
30.0
27.6
25.8
1,441
1,423
1,549
1,550
(Ø in days)
13.9
14.0
13,8
13,8
Number of holiday
trips (millions)
63,2
62,6
62,2
63,4
All trips = 100%
Means of transport
Successful year for
coaches and railways
No increase in
package tours
Expenditures per
person and trip
remained at the high
level of previous year
Organisation
Travel expenditure
Total per person and
trip (Ø in DM)
Duration
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Influence of terror attacks and
travel intentions for 2002
In all, September 11th had only a small influence on the
travel year 2001 as more than 80% of all holiday trips
were finished at this time. Until 15/09/2001, about 1.5
million more holidays trips were made than in the
previous year in the same period of time (+5.4%). In the
time after 15/09 a decrease with the amount of almost
half a million holiday trips can be stated.
Travel intentions
in January as predicting
indicator for the travel
propensity
in %
Future perspectives 2002: Whereas in January 2001
72% of the Germans had a positive attitude towards a
holiday trip, only 69% agreed to plan a trip in January
2002. The number of people (still) undecided was a little
bit higher: 17% instead of 14%. This insecurity was
probably caused by the economic situation, the price
increase for plane trips (due to extra safety charges)
and a certain restraint as consequence of fearing terror
attacks. Nevertheless the majority of the Germans is
not willing to do without their holiday trip.
Travel propensity
80
75
70
65
60
Travel intentions
55
Details in % of population
Source: RA 1991-2002
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
50
RA 2002: travel intentions in January
F.U.R
Population (age 14+) =100%
2001
2002
Yes, I (probably) will travel
72%
69%
Don’t know (yet)
14%
17%
No, (probably)I will not travel
14%
14%
The influence of the terror attacks has nonetheless not
yet disappeared. In January, 14% of the Germans (9
mn) were of the opinion that the terror attacks and their
consequences would influence their travel behaviour for
their next holiday trip.
-6Wrangelstraße 16, D-24105 Kiel
Telefon +49 (0)180-57 58 59 5, +49 (0)431-88888 00
Fax +49 (0)180-57 58 59 0, +49 (0)431-8888 679
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Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
Change in destination preferences
Beside the general travel intentions, the RA also includes interest potentials of many holiday destinations
and holiday types. The change in preferences is an important indicator for the future development of demand.
As expected, the interest in the destination USA decreased (-17%) in January 2002. For the USA this
means a continuation of developments which started
long before September 11th, mainly being caused by the
high exchange rate of the US $. This trend is being
even more intensified by the consequences of the terror
attacks. Also Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco show heavy
setbacks of interest potentials (-18% to -20%), contrary
to Turkey which almost gets off “scot-free” (-2% in the
potential). In contrast, the interest for the destinations
Italy, Croatia, Slovenia and Great Britain is higher than
in the previous year.
Holiday types in trend
The wellness/spa wave has caught on in Germany.
Comparing the holiday preferences for 20 different holiday types in January 1999 and 2002, the interest for
wellness/spa holidays increased by 125%. The interest
for closely connected health oriented holiday types like
fitness holidays (+51%) and health holidays
(+46%) increased clearly as well.
125
in %
80
65
60
45
46
Study trip
Health
holiday
51
40
Study trips, allinclusive and health
oriented holiday types
follow the trend.
20
8
5
0
Winter in
sunny regions
City break
Fitness
holiday
Allinclusive
Wellness
holiday
Relative change of interest compared to January 2001 in %.
Source: RA 99 and 2002
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The project
In this review of the
first results we could
only present a small
excerpt of the topics
and data covered in the
RA 2002.
The RA 2002 also deals
with the image and
quality assessment of
destinations. Criteria
important for the
choice of a destination
are considered as well.
We will gladly tell you
more about the contents and possibilities
of the RA. Please call
us.
The Reiseanalyse RA 2002 is a representative survey
of the holiday travel behaviour of Germans, their travel
related attitudes, motivations and interests.
The survey focuses on holiday trips lasting at least five
days, but short trips of two to four days are also covered.
The study is based on more than 7,800 face-to-face
interviews carried out in January 2002. The randomly
selected sample is representative of the Germanspeaking population aged 14 years and older, living in
private households in Germany.
Subscribers to the RA receive the complete results in
table form, a general report giving an overview of the
total German tourist market and the major trends. More
detailed analyses are possible, even for small and very
specific target groups.
The organisation & the users
F.U.R, Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen
e.V., is an independent association of domestic and
international users of tourism research in Germany.
Reiseanalyse Aktuell is published quarterly and contains
information regarding tourism
research of F.U.R.
The first results presented
here have been checked, but
we cannot exclude that there
could be variations in the final
data.
© F.U.R, 2002
The user includes a broad spectrum of companies and
organisations in the tourist industry, specialised tour
operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international tourism organisations, government ministries and
publishing companies.
The research team
Ipsos Deutschland, Hamburg, carries out the field work,
the N.I.T., Institut für Tourismus- und Bäderforschung in
Nordeuropa, Kiel, is in charge of the scientific and organisational aspects of the study and together with the
Managing Director, Dr. Peter Aderhold, Copenhagen,
responsible for the evaluation of the results.
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Special publications of F.U.R
For further information
(tables of contents and
order forms) please
look at: www.fur.de.
Student reductions for
certain studies
F.U.R delivers against
payment in advance
Detailed research results of the RA with access to all
data of the basic questionnaire programme can be obtained by the purchasers of the RA 2002 (price: EUR
7.900,- plus VAT.).
Making the research results open to the public F.U.R
published some special studies focusing on selected
topics of interest, most of them being available in German only.
„ Reiseanalyse Trendstudie 2000-2010
Langfristige Entwicklungen in der touristischen Nachfrage
auf der Basis von 30 Jahren Reiseanalysen (ca. 120 Seiten).
Preis: EUR 214,- (inkl. MwSt.)
„ Kurzfassung Reiseanalyse 2001
Wesentliche Ergebnisse der Untersuchung 2001 bzgl. der
Entwicklung und Dimension des deutschen Urlaubsreisemarktes
und der Durchführung der Urlaubsreisen (ca. 150 Seiten).
Preis: EUR 107,- (inkl. MwSt.)
„ Urlaubsreisen der Familien, Senioren,
Jugendlichen, Singles
Sonderstudie aus RA 2000; Motive, Verhalten, Interessen
(ca. 70 Seiten). Preis: EUR 107,- (inkl. MwSt.)
„ Warum und wie die Deutschen Urlaub machen
Sonderstudie aus der RA 2000; Urlaubs-Motive, UrlaubsReisearten mit den Schwerpunkten Gesundheitsurlaub, Fernreisen
und Kurzreisen (ca. 65 Seiten). Preis: EUR 107,- (inkl. MwSt.)
In English Î
„ German Holiday Analysis - Summary of key
results with special emphasis on holidays abroad
Analysis of the travel behaviour of the German population and the
holiday motivations and interests of the German holidaymaker
(ca. 40 pages). Price: EUR 107,- (VAT included)
-9Wrangelstraße 16, D-24105 Kiel
Telefon +49 (0)180-57 58 59 5, +49 (0)431-88888 00
Fax +49 (0)180-57 58 59 0, +49 (0)431-8888 679
www.fur.de, [email protected]