THE PRACTICAL MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS REVERSAL AND PREVENTION (MICRAP) - AN INTRODUCTION By Professor (Grandmaster) Adefioye Sunday Adewumi

Transcription

THE
PRACTICAL MODEL
FOR
SUSTAINABLE
INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS
REVERSAL
AND
PREVENTION
AN INTRODUCTION
ADEFIOYE SUNDAY ADEWUMI
Copyright © 2017
MODEL FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS REVERSAL AND PREVENTION (MICRAP) || SDX Publishing
COPYRIGHT © 2017
THE
PRACTICAL MODEL
FOR SUSTAINABLE INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS
REVERSAL AND PREVENTION
AN INTRODUCTION
ADEFIOYE SUNDAY ADEWUMI
Nigeria
January 2017
© All Rights Reserved 2017
Content of this document may be used, transfer and shared ONLY as it is for international,
national or regional policy formulations and implementations. However, in no case should the
theory, models and concepts therein be modified, rephrased or altered in any way without a
prior written consent of the author.
Copyright © 2017 || Adefioye Sunday Adewumi || All Rights Reserved
FOREWORD
With the historic reputations of abortive and unsuccessful international conflicts and wars
remediation by international development bodies and experts, the author presents a practical
model for sustainable international conflicts prevention, reversal, administration and
remediation. This model adopted a bottom-up reversal approach with minimal military
assaults to solving international security challenges including wars, conflicts, crimes and
terrorism – the subsequent pages of this material present an introduction to The Model for
International Conflicts Reversal and Prevention (MICRAP).
INTRODUCTION
Asides natural disasters, international conflicts in terms of wars, crisis and terrorism have
largely claimed significant number of lives and destruction of properties that worth billions
globally since the perceived cessation of the second world war in 1945. Interestingly, most
international efforts to eradicate global conflicts, wars and terrorism have been ridiculously
unsuccessful. This is predominantly due to the methods adopted and intrinsic objectives of
various international organizations and mediators involved in these global peacekeeping
adventures.
What is International Conflict?
International conflict is defined as any disagreements and negative psychosociological
interactions leading to physical escalations (incurring loss of lives and destruction of
properties) between two or more countries, regions and territories or that involved
participation of at least one external (i.e. not directly affected by the objects of contention or
consequences of the conflict) country in physical escalations within a country, region or
territory.
Previous Efforts
It was observed that for the past ten (10) years, there is drastic reduction in the rate and
severity of new (international) conflicts. This is attributed to the concept of conflict-inertia!
Conflict inertia is a state during a war or conflict lifecycle where all engaging parties become
exhausted or the masterminds of conflicts have exhausted their strategies hence there is
temporary conflict-drain and potential subconscious loss of energy for the continuation of the
conflict or war.
All scientific methodologies adopted by international development experts and organizations
for decades to alleviate international conflicts and ensure peace have proved abortive because
they have been majorly targeted at reducing the consequences or effects of war and conflicts.
The Trio-Dimension to International Conflict
There is only three (trio) dimensions to every international conflict, these are:
1. Origin/Cause/Evolution. This is the how and why the conflict started. Evolution of
international conflicts could be sub-classified into three, namely;
a. Diplomatic – international (socio-political interference) and local (sociocultural and religious interactions cum escalations)
b. Terrorism – initiated by extreme conflict oriented groups.
c. Geo-political – based on disagreements and psychosociological interactions on
territorial physical properties e.g. land areas, water surface or airspace.
2. Contributors. Contributors are factors that intensified the level of the conflict, that
promote the conflict or war, and that aims to ensure the continuation of the conflict.
3. Effects. The effects are the attending consequences of the war or conflict. Effects of
conflict can either be the actual effects, potential effects and the projected effects based
on the temporal (time-based) characteristics of the effects or consequences. Also
effects of an international conflict can be inanimate and animate based on the objects
or entities that suffer the consequences of the conflict. Animate effects of wars and
conflicts include those that affect human existence while inanimate composed those
that pertain to loss of properties and alterations of earth’s physical properties.
The Model for International Conflict Reversal and Prevention (MICRAP)
The theoretical background for the Model for International Conflicts Reversal and
Prevention (International Conflict Reversal Model) states that all conflicts (local or
international) have a unique and similar pattern of evolution, and this pattern is largely due to
poorly managed psychosociological interactions leading to physical escalations. Hence, the
Conflict Reversal and Prevention Model focus more on eliminating evolutions/causes and
contributors of conflicts which consequentially eradicate the effects of such conflicts using
psychosociological principles. This model also asserts that international conflicts can be
effectively managed and solved without much offensive military assaults (or taking of
human’s lives) except for defensive purposes.
Applications and Assumptions
The Model for International Conflict Reversal and Prevention is applied from two
perspectives;
a. To permanently solve, reverse and end any existing international conflict or war, and
b. To prevent future international conflict or wars
In order to permanently solve, reverse and end an existing international conflict or war, the
Model for International Conflict Reversal and Prevention (MICRAP) is built on four major
assumptions based on the Trio-Dimension concept of Origins-Contributors-Effects
introduced earlier.
Terrorism
Terrorism is the act of destroying lives and properties and unleashing mass fears usually by
organized groups of people with violence orientations, believes and values. Conflicts/wars
have been expressed to evolve basically from poorly managed psychosociological
interactions while terrorism usually start primarily from socialization with wrong (conflictcentred) orientations.
Terrorism is regarded as one of the major contributors to international conflict/wars however
terrorism on its own (without affiliation/foundation to/on other causes of conflicts) cannot
start an international conflict or war. Terrorism exists (is started and sustained) essentially
with its strength and life-support centred on all forms of socialization. The primary sources of
socialization have been identified to include;
o Family
o Religion
o Peer Groups, and
o Mass Media
Terrorism serves as pseudo-origin and major contributors to international conflict/war, hence
it is treated as an independent entity and in isolation of traditional/conventional international
conflict/war patterns though terrorism is linked to international conflict/wars as one of its
major contributors.
Conceptual Dimensions of Terrorism
Lifecycle of global terrorism could be considered from a similar perspective to the TrioDimensions to international conflicts with little modifications (e.g. introduction of the
operational models). Terrorism in its entirety have no inertia as observed in international
conflict or war since it is often drenched in “faith” or believes – a higher motivation than
those fuelling international conflict. Therefore, four inherent components (dimensions to)
terrorism are devised, these are;
a. Evolution of Terrorism
b. Contributors to Terrorism
c. Operational Models of Terrorism
o Technological models (Weapons, Logistics and Communications)
o Psychosociological
models
(Education,
Mass
Media
and
Religious
Organizations)
d. Effects of Terrorism
o international conflict and wars, and
o independent terror attacks and assaults
The four major primary sources of socialization importantly serve as both the
origin/causes/evolution of and major contributors to terrorism. Therefore, adapting and
applying the Model for International Conflicts Reversal and Prevention (MICRAP) in
eradicating global terrorism also involve eliminating the evolution/sources/origin/causes of
terrorism
and
infiltrating/eliminating
all
contributors
to
terrorism
using
purely
psychosociological principles. This will automatically isolate terror operations, defuse the
effectiveness of all operational models for terrorism and consequentially ameliorate the
effects of terrorism.
Conclusion
The MICRAP model is developed on the fundamental notion that ALL conflicts or wars can
be permanently solved since they all follow the same general format/patterns of origin,
contributors and effects. And since international conflicts emerges due to poorly managed
psychosociological interactions, the same methods of its evolution can be adopted for its
dissolution or conclusion with consideration for various integrated components that makes up
the conflict or war. While there are slight distinctions between the processes of international
conflicts/wars and terrorism, MICRAP is applicable in any nation, region or territory almost
for all conflict/war situations and for effective cum sustainable international conflicts, wars
and terrorism interventions.
REFERENCES
1. Adefioye
Sunday A (2016): “Military Psychosociology: An Application of
Psychosociology in Modern Military Intelligence and Towards Effective Wars
Prevention, Planning, Management and Administration”. SDX Publishing. Available
and
accessible
online
at:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323677129/MILITARY-
PSYCHOSOCIOLOGY-AN-APPLICATION-OF-PSYCHOSOCIOLOGY-IN-MODERNMILITARY-INTELLIGENCE-AND-TOWARDS-EFFECTIVE-WARS-PREVENTIONPLANNING-MANAGEMEN
2. Adefioye Sunday A (2016): “Psychosociology: The Invisible Lines and Emergence of
a
New
Field
of
Study
–
The
Blueprint”.
Available
at:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01LFYWD2M
3. Ben Cannable (2012): “Military Intelligence Fusion for Complex Operations”. RAND
National Defence Research Institute. ISBN: 978-0-8330-7622-9 RAND Corporation.
4. Joint Military Intelligence College, (1997): “Defence and Intelligence Abbreviations
and Acronyms”. Joint Military Intelligence College, Washington DC, DVP-260001828-97. November, 1997.
5. Keith Lewis (2011): “Remote Sensing Needs for Military Operations”. ElectroMagnetic Remote Sensing Defence Technology Centre (EMRS DTC) and Sciovis Ltd.
United Kingdom Ministry of Defence, United kingdom.
6. Yasar Guneri and Tuncay Ercan (2008): “Detection of Hidden Hostile/Terrorist
Groups in Harsh Territories by Using Animals as Mobile Biological Sensors”. Sensors
open access journal. ISSN 1424-8220, 25 July 2008. DOI: 10.3390/s8074365,
www.mdpi.ord/sensors
ABOUT AUTHOR
Name:
Prof. Dr. Adefioye Sunday Adewumi
Organization: Pratibha Systems Int’l
Position:
Founder and CEO
Email:
[email protected]
Mobile:
+2347033985337, +2349079680995
Description: Prof. Dr. ADEFIOYE Sunday Adewumi develops the Shape Concept (now
known as The Shape Theory); The ASTEPAS Theory of Research and
Development (the pioneering and world's only integrative theory of R&D); The
ASTEPAS RIA Method; the Universal Theory of Sustainable Development (the
first and only holistic comprehensive theory of sustainable development); The
Capacity Operations and Productions Theory (The COP Theory); the
Production Performance Index (PPI); and the Integrated Business Operations
Model (IBOM) among several other practical theoretical works. He invented
modern psychosociology and has written scientific materials on the applications
of
psychosociology in
modern
military intelligence,
operations
administrations.
and

THE PRACTICAL MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS REVERSAL AND PREVENTION (MICRAP) - AN INTRODUCTION By Professor (Grandmaster) Adefioye Sunday Adewumi

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